Opening Forum Speech by yurtgc548

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									                   IP and PSTN:
                 Two worlds collide:

         Dr Tim Kelly,
  Co-ordinator, Strategies and
          Policy Unit,
         International
 Telecommunication Union (ITU)
         18 July 2000

Note: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its membership. Dr Tim Kelly
can be contacted by e-mail at Tim.Kelly@itu.int.
             IP and PSTN: Two Worlds Collide

      Agenda
 IP overtaking voice
    By circuit capacity
    By long-distance traffic volume
    By local traffic volume
 Wholesale pricing models
    What makes the Internet different from the public
     switched telephone network?
    International IP connectivity
 Developing country concerns
    Costs of being an Internet “latecomer”
    International co-ordination (D.120)
                 Number of int’l circuits in use,
                 worldwide, and by region 1998
                 (in thousands)                             Western Europe
 300                                                                      PSTN,
                                                                          32%
                                                                   IPL,
 250                                                               68%

 200                                                                  Asia
             PSTN circuits
 150                                                                    PSTN,
                                                                   IPL, 41%
                                                                   59%
 100

                       International Private Lines                 Caribbean
   50                                                       IPL,
                       (Internet)                           18%
    0                                                                     PSTN,
                                                                          82%
     1995                  1996             1997     1998
Source: FCC. Applies to US carriers only.
                  Minutes of use by month,
                  Hongkong SAR ('000s)
       1'250

       1'000
                            Dial-up Internet
         750                (via PSTN)

         500

         250
                          International voice
                          (incoming and outgoing)
             0
                 4     6         8    10   12   2    4    6    8    10   12
                 98    98        98   98   98   99   99   99   99   99   99
Source: OFTA (www.ofta.gov.hk)
                 Deutsche Telekom
                 Percentage change in call
                 volume (minutes)                                     86.3%



                                                         36.0%


     -7.1%                                  7.2%
                        -2.1%



   Domestic              Int'l            Local calls    Calls to     Calls to
     long-            outgoing                           mobile     Internet (T-
   distance             calls                           networks      Online)
Source: Deutsche Telekom annual report.
                    Dial-up Internet traffic as % of
                    total traffic minutes
    40%
    35%               Telia (Sweden)                                                       38%
    30%
    25%             27%
                                                                                        19.5%
    20%
                             Telenor (Norway)
    15%            12%
                                                                                            18%
    10%
                                  Telecom Portugal
       5%         8.5%

       0%
                1998                                                                      1999
Source: PTO annual reports. Note: For Telia, Internet traffic as % of local minutes. For others, as % of total
               IP and PSTN: Two Worlds Collide


     Wholesale pricing of Internet
 Domestic access
    Leased lines
    Dial-up lines
 International connectivity
    Local half-circuit
    Foreign half-circuit (e.g., from USA, Europe)
 Traffic exchange
    Local
    Foreign
        Different wholesale pricing
               arrangements
Public switched telephone     Public Internet service
service                       Usage-based wholesale
Per minute wholesale         pricing is rare (NZ and AUS
pricing of end-to-end int’l   are exceptions)
traffic                       Peering arrangements,
International accounting     usually based on capacity
rate and settlements          or traffic exchanged
system applies                No end-to-end int’l
Domestically-regulated       settlement payments
interconnect regimes          No regulation of peering
Access charges payable       arrangements
for call origination and      No access charges
termination                   payable for IP traffic in US
Some transparency            No transparency
             Settlements-based traffic
PTO = Public                                       PTOs A & B
Telecommunications                                 split the cost of
Operator                                           the int’l circuit
                       Delivers traffic
             PTO A     Pays settlement fees    PTO B
  Collects           Collects        Terminates           Retains
  traffic            revenues        traffic              revenues

    User 1 User 2 User 3                  User 1 User 2 User 3

         For accounting rate traffic, a direct bilateral
     relationship is established between the origin and
   termination operators. Intermediate transit operators
    are compensated from the accounting rate which is
      usually split 50:50. PTO B retains net settlement.
                             ……...
        Internet Peering traffic (Web)
ISP = Internet                                        PTO B pays
Services                                              the full cost of
Provider                     One-way (thick pipe)     the int’l circuit
                 ISP A
                             Two-way (thin pipe)    ISP B
Exchanges                            Requests               Collects
traffic                              and terminates         revenues
                                     traffic
     Web 1       Web 1   Web 1               User 1 User 2 User 3

          For Internet Peering traffic, ISP B pays for
          both halves of the International circuit(s) which are
          used for peering with ISP A. ISP B also pays for
          traffic exchange.
          ISP B may pay for the circuit directly, or in
          conjunction with one or more PTOs.
              IP and PSTN: Two Worlds Collide
       Settlements and Peering:
       What’s the difference?
 Settlement-payment traffic
    Substantial revenue transfers, from core to
     periphery of network
    Promotes “organic” network growth
    So, Operators generating less traffic than they
     receive have an incentive to keep prices high
 Peering traffic
    Some revenue transfers, from periphery to core of
     network
    Promotes “spontaneous” network growth
    So, ISPs generating less traffic than they receive
     have an incentive to force prices down
      Internet traffic flows are highly
                 asymmetric
Public switched telephone       Public Internet service
service                         Traffic flows are multi-
Traffic flows are bilateral    lateral: A single session may
and broadly match value         poll many countries
flow in that caller, who        Web-browsing is dominant
initiates the call, also pays   form of traffic: traffic flow is
for it                          dominantly towards user
Call-back reverses the         who initiates the call. Web
direction of the call, from     traffic highly asymmetric
a statistical viewpoint, but    Newer forms of Internet
caller still pays & benefits    traffic (telephony, push
Traffic flows unbalanced       media, streaming video etc)
between developed and           reverses traffic flow to be
developing countries            from user which initiates the
                                call
                 IP and PSTN: Two Worlds Collide
         Developing country concerns
 Developing countries receive no international
  settlement payments for IP traffic
    Increasingly, incoming IP traffic includes IP
     telephony and fax traffic which they must terminate
 They must pay to peer with US/EU backbone
    Peering costs are rising as IP traffic continues to
     grow exponentially
 They must pay both half-circuits of the
  International Private Line to the foreign ISP
    Even though traffic flows in both directions over the
     circuit, once it is established
 Telephone and fax traffic shifting to the Internet
    What will replace the US$7 bn from settlements?
Global PSTN traffic, 1998, Mill. Mins




Source: TeleGeography Inc., 2000
Global Inter-regional IP backbone




Source: TeleGeography Inc., Global Backbone Database. Data valid for Sept. 1999.
                 IP and PSTN: Two Worlds Collide

    Draft ITU-T Recommendation D.120:
    International Internet Connection
       Noting the rapid growth of the Internet and Internet
based international services:
       It is recommended that administrations* negotiate
and agree bi-lateral commercial arrangements applying to
direct international Internet connections whereby each
administration* will be compensated for the costs that it
incurs in carrying traffic that is generated by the other
administration.

Note: To be voted at the World Telecom Standardization Assembly in
September 2000.
* “Administration” means national administration of recognised
operating agency

								
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