Vision 2050 CSD

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					Sustainable Energy Visions 2050
           By Gunnar Boye Olesen
International Network for Sustainable Energy
       CSD14 Side event, May 1, 2006
    Sustainable Energy Vision 2050
The world energy system:
 is beyond the environmental limits
 does not provide basic energy needs as light and
  healthy cooking facilities to 1/4 of the world’s
  population

 Environmental imperative: keep global warming to
  1’C in 21. century (1.6’C above pre-industrial)
 Social imperative: provide all with basic energy
  needs and allow developing countries to develop,
  including use of cheap energy supply
CSD14 Side-event April 1, 2006
A Global Sustainable Scenario
                                CO2 (MtC)/y

 8000
 7000
 6000
 5000
 4000                                                                  CO2 (MtC)/y
        1990-        After 2000:
 3000
 2000   2000:
 1000   64 GtC       240 GtC
    0
    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
       Energy Services per capita
              Industrialised countries     Developing countries.
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000                                                                 Transport
4000                                                                 El.+mechanical
3000                                                                 Medium+high t.
2000                                                                 Low temp.

1000
  0
       2000              2050            2000                 2050
        Primary Energy (TWh/y)
               Industrialised countries          Developing countries

70000

60000

50000

40000                                                                   Nuclear
30000                                                                   Fossil
                                                                        Biomass
20000
                                                                        Hydro
10000                                                                   Solar

   0                                                                    Wind
        2000                  2050        2000                  2050
    Regional and National Visions
Visions based on national/regional data, progress per
 decade.

 Regional visions for EU-15 and EU-25
 National Visions for Denmark, Ukraine, Romania,
  Belarus
 Visions under preparation for Lithuania, Croatia,
  Poland
                  Vision for EU
 Reach 12% RE by 2010, 25% by 2020
 Introduce factor 4 effiency increase 2000 – 2050
 Except for buildings, where only 2.3 times increase
  expected (agriculture, railroads also less efficiency)
 Moderate growth in housing and electric appliances.
 Manufacture to grow in value, NOT in volume
 Reduction in road transport, with efficient transport use
  and more use of railways
 Efficient energy supply with CHP, electricity and
  hydrogen in transport
                   EU-25 Vision
            Renewable Energy

     18.000                                            Solar PV
     16.000
                                          Solar heat
     14.000
                                                       Geothermal
     12.000
                                                       Windpower
     10.000
PJ




      8.000                           Energy Plants
                                                    Biofuel, liquid
                                         Biogas
      6.000
      4.000                           Solid Biomass
      2.000
          0                                 Hydro
          2000   2010   2020   2030    2040         2050
                              EU-25
              Total Primary Energy Supply

     70.000
     60.000                 Nuclear
     50.000     Coal, waste
     40.000
PJ




                 Oil products
     30.000
     20.000
                Natural gas                    Other RE
     10.000
         0
                                               Biomass
         2000        2010       2020   2030   2040    2050
                         EU-25
              Electricity Divided in Supply

     12.000

     10.000
                          Fossils &             Import
      8.000                                     Solar PV
                           nuclear
PJ




      6.000                                     Wind

      4.000

      2.000                Biomass
                            Hydro
         0
         2000     2010   2020   2030   2040   2050
                       EU-25
        CO2 emmissions, million tons/year

4.000

3.000

2.000
                                 EU15
1.000
           EU 10 new
   0
    2000    2010   2020   2030   2040   2050
      Can we reach it?

             or

What does it take to reach the
           goal ?
           EU Energy Supply
Wind: Growth to 70,000 MW in 2010 (current trend),
  220,000 MW in 2020 and 375,000 MW in 2040 (up
  to 15,000 MW/year), it was 6000 MW in 2005),
   ¼ expected offshore.
Large windpower development programs are cost-
  effective: extra costs today will be paid back with
  future cost reductions due to technology learning.
  Many sites cost-effective today.
Solar: PV market has reached the critical 500
  MWp/year globally, and grows > 25% pr. year
    Biomass, sustainably in EU
   10000
    9000                                          Solid energy crops
    8000
    7000                                          Biofuels/crops

    6000                                          Biogas
    5000
    4000                                          Straw

    3000                                          Old timber/waste
    2000
    1000                                          Industrial wood
                                                  residues
        0
                                                  Wood/biomass
                                    0
           e r201
                  0
                       /W BGU EA202       C202
                                              0
    te Pap         RSE        E       ERE
Wh i        INF
                O
             Energy Demand
 Most energy consuming equipment will be replaced
  many times before 2050. Technology learning drives
  prices down.
 One exception is houses For the vision is proposed
  1.7%p.a. specific reduction leading to 57% reduction
  2000 – 2050.
 For transport is expected increase in conversion
  efficiency from today’s 15-20% to 50%, and re-cover
  “braking energy”: factor 4 efficiency increase
 Energy service demand will increase, from 0% in
  industry to 43% in electric equipments.
 -33% in car use/Transp.vision
            Realise efficiency
Realising factor 4 in electric equipment,industry,
  transport, many examples:
 Computer screens: change to flat screens save 50 -
  66% in one generation.
 A hydrogen car can be 3-4 times as efficient as
  present petrol cars, electric cars are 4-6 times as
  efficient (end-use efficiency of vehicle)
Buildings:
 Industry (Eurima/EuroACE) finds that more than
  50% of energy use in buildings could be reduced –
  INFORSE-Europe proposes 57% until 2050.
Realise efficiency – macro scale
        Heat efficiency increase relative to area, Danish
       Heat efficiency annual increase relative to area,
                  households, 5-year averages
       Danish households, 5-year averages
3.0%

2.5%

2.0%                   Vision for space heating 1.7% p.a.
1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%
         80-85      85-90      90-95      95-00      99-04
Realise efficiency – macro scale
 3%   Vision for appliances, industry, etc 2.8% p.a..

 2%


 1%


 0%
       '80-'85     '85-'90   '90-'95     '95-'00    '00-'04
-1%


-2%
          TV                  Danish efficiency
-3%       Washing machines    increase 5-yr av.
Invitation for cooperation:
Would you like to develop sustainable
energy vision(s) for your country/area?

INFORSE would like to cooperate:
-make spredsheet model available,
-assist in development of vision(s),
-include in global vision

				
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