TEORI PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN DALAM KEBIJAKAN PUBLIK (DECISION by cp7R8FS8

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									TEORI PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN DALAM
         KEBIJAKAN PUBLIK
  (DECISION MAKING THEORY IN PUBLIC POLICY)




           DEDDY S. BRATAKUSUMAH PhD


                     2007
              DEFINISI

•   Rational decisions are ones that advances the
    welfare of the decision maker effectively and
    logically based on everything the decision
    maker knows and feels
                                         (Brown, 2005)


•   Rational decision making involves the
    selection of the alternative which will maximize
    the decision-maker’s values, the selection
    being made following a comprehensive
    analysis of alternatives and their
    consequences
                                         (Simon, 1957)
              KRITERIA

1. Didasarkan pada modal yang dimiliki oleh si
   pengambil keputusan. Modal disini bukanlah harta
   atau uang semata, tetapi keadaan mental,
   kemampuan mental, hubungan sosial, dan
   perasaan.
2. Didasarkan pada berbagai kemungkinan akibat dari
   pilihan.
3. Manakala akibat ini tidak pasti, maka akibat ini
   dianalisa dengan memakai teori probabilitas.
4. Pilihlah yang probabilitasnya sesuai dengan yang
   diharapkan pada setiap pilihan.
                                (Hastie & Dawes, 2001)
    MASALAH-MASALAH PADA
      METODA KUALITATIF
 Heuristics:
 Speculative formulation serving as a guide in the
 investigation or solution of a problem
                                     (Keren and Teigen, 2004)


1. Representation Bias: decision making by recalling
   a memory or experience that is similar to the
   present decision making experience
2. Availability Bias: decision making by the primacy
   and/or by predicting “easily conceivable outcomes”
3. Anchor & Adjustment Bias: decision making by
   what is familiar and conceivable
        BERBAGAI MODEL

•   Goals, Options and Outcomes (GOO)
•   The Personalist Approach
•   Lens Model
•   Simple Utility Equation
•   Additive Linear Multi-Attribute Utility Theory
    (MAUT)
          DEFINISI “UTILITY”

• “The consumption utility of an option is
  broadly defined here as the benefit the option
  delivers.”
     (Hsee, 1999)


• It is assumed that the decision maker should
  choose the option that delivers the greatest
  utility or benefit.
                                     (Hsee, 1999)

• When making decisions, we think about what
  option will derive the highest utility.
                             (Hastie and Dawes, 2001)
GOALS, OPTIONS, DAN OUTCOMES

1.   Apa Yang Kita Inginkan? (Goals)
2.   Apa Yang Bisa Kita Kerjakan? (Options)
3.   Apa Yang Mungkin Akan Terjadi? (Outcomes)
                                                      (Brown, 2005)


Prakteknya
   a. Goals dan Options dapat diuraikan
   b. Outcomes sulit untuk diperkirakan
       Bisa memakai Quantitative Methods (Simple Probability
       Theory), (Penelitian mengindikasikan bahwa Quantitative
       Methods memprediksi Outcomes lebih baik daripada
       Qualitative Methods)
                                             (Hastie & Dawes, 2001)
           THE PERSONALIST APPROACH
              (first approximation of quantifiable decision making)


                                          OPTIONS

OUTCOMES                  Science                         Liberal Arts

Class enjoyment           --                              ++++

Academic success          +                               ++++

Career security           ++                              --

Total                     +                               ++++++




                                                                      (Brown, 2005)
         LENS MODEL CONCEPT

• The decision maker is trying to see a “distal” true
  state of something through a “proximal lens” of
  cues. These cues represent information or
  characteristics that the decision maker uses to
  make a decision
                              (Hastie and Dawes, 2001)


• An algebraic model of probability that measures
  and assigns a scaled weight to the importance of
  each piece of information (cue) available to the
  decision maker
                              (Hastie and Dawes, 2001)
                               LENS MODEL CONCEPT



• Research: “experts correctly select variables that are
  important in making predictions, but that a probability
  model combines these variables in a way that is
  superior to the global judgments of these very same
  experts.”
                                         (Hastie and Dawes, 2001)


  Probability models have been derived from the Lens
  Model Concept.
       SIMPLE UTILITY EQUATION

• Decision tree in which each option represents a major
  branch, and from each branch stems the possible
  outcomes. Each of these outcomes is assigned a
  specific quantitative probability so that the sum of the
  outcomes stemming from one choice adds up to 1, or
  100%. The probability for each outcome is multiplied by
  an assigned number that represents how the decision
  maker would feel about that outcome
                                          (Hastie and Dawes, 2001)


• Utility = Σ (probabilityoutcome x valueoutcome)
            SIMPLE UTILITY EQUATION


                  Value   Prob x Value   Utility
Study
        fail .3   -100     -.3
        pass .7
                                         .4

                  +100     .7

        fail .8
        pass .2
Play              -100     -.8

                                         -.6

                  +100      .2
ADDITIVE LINEAR MULTI-ATTRIBUTE
         UTILITY THEORY
             (MAUT)

 MAUT weighs all of the attributes and scales the
 attributes by importance to the decision maker.
 Each option is considered by assigning a scaled
 value to that option-attribute, according to its
 importance, and then adding up all of the scaled
 option-attributes to obtain the utility value for that
 option

                                   (Hastie and Dawes, 2001)
          INCREMENTALISM


Model lain dalam pengambilan keputusan adalah
Incrementalism. Tokohnya adalah Charles Lindblom.
Menurutnya kebijakan publik adalah kelanjutan dari
berbagai kebijakan pemerintah sebelumnya, hanya
sedikit perubahan.

Incrementalism menganggap bahwa program-
program, kebijakan-kebijakan, dan pengeluaran
pemerintah, merupakan dasar untuk pembuatan
kebijakan baru

                             (Hill, 1997)
                                   INCREMENTALISM
Asumsi-Asumsi Incrementalism:

1.   Para pembuat keputusan tidak memiliki kemampuan
     untuk memperkirakan segala konsekwensi dari
     berbagai alternatif.
2.   Menerima legitimasi dari kebijakan yang terdahulu.
3.   Biaya yang terbuang menjadi pertimbangan dalam
     perubahan kebijakan yang radikal.
4.   Mengurangi konflik dan gejolak plitik.
5.   Karakteristik dari pembuat keputusan itu sendiri cocok
     dengan Incrementalism, manusia bukanlah yang
     senang meningkatkan “nilai”, melainkan sebagai
     pencari kepuasan dari kebutuhannya.

                                         (Lester ad Stewart, 2000)
TERIMA KASIH

								
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