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					Crisis of 2007-2008
Trends in US Banking
  Decline of Glass-Steagal Act
• In 1927, interstate banking eliminated.
• In 1933, Glass-Steagal act created FDIC
  and separated banking business from
  securities business.
During 1990’s, these regulations were
  eliminated and US banks had a wave of
  consolidation and concentration.
         Bank Holding Companies

•    Bank holding companies have a corporate structure in
     which a parent company owns many subsidiaries in
     different financial industries.
    1.   Subsidiaries engage in banking, securities, real estate and
         insurance business.
    2.   Subsidiaries are separate legal entities so the bankruptcy
         of one does not mean losses for the other.
    3.   Losses at one subsidiary do result in losses for
         shareholders of the holding company.
    4.   Banks mostly protected from risk of sister companies.
Advantages: Protects depositors & bank capital from market
    risk. One stop shopping can help build relationships.
     Shadow Banking System
• Over the last 30 years, competitors to
  banks in providing traditional banking
  services.
• The competitors include
  – Investment Banks
  – Mutual Funds
  – Hedge Funds
      Decline in Advantage in
        Providing Liquidity
• One of banks biggest source of
  comparative advantage is their ability to
  provide liquid assets for depositors.
  – New Competition: Money Market Mutual
    Funds – Mutual funds that are redeemable at
    a fixed price by writing checks. Mutual funds
    invest in money markets. These are
    essentially checking accounts issued by non-
    financial institutions that pay interest.
      Decline in Advantage in
         Providing Credit
• Another of banks comparative advantage is their
  ability to provide loans quickly and provide
  credit to small or new firms.
• New Competition
  – Commercial Paper: Short-term corporate bonds.
    Many firms that relied on banks for short-term loans
    now issue commercial paper.
  – Junk Bonds: Bonds issued by firms with non-
    investment grade credit ratings. Many firms that
    relied on banks for credit now issue junk bonds.
     Financial Commercial Paper

• Commercial paper has not only offered
  competition for banks loan business, …but also
  offers a source of financing for banks
  competitors.
• MMMF’s and others buy commercial paper with
  funds deposited by customers.
• Banks following Citibank also set up SIV’s
  financed with money market borrowing (asset
  backed commercial paper) to purchase long-
  term assets.
Financing of Investment Banks




                                        October 2004 – SEC lifts
                                        capitalization rules for large
                                        broker-dealers
M. Brunnermeier, Princeton U. Slides.
                 I-Banks switched to more S-T
                           lending.
                                             Financing of Broker Dealers

              45.00%

              40.00%                                                                                                      Ex. In 2000,
              35.00%                                                                                                      Equity to
              30.00%                                                                                                      Assets at
                                                                                                                          Morgan
% of Assets




              25.00%

              20.00%                                                                                                      Stanley was
              15.00%                                                                                                      4.6%, in May
              10.00%                                                                                                      2008 was 1.1%
              5.00%

              0.00%
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                                                 Finl. Assets-Finl. Liabilities          Repo Finance
   If you can’t beat‘em, join’em
• Banks have taken advantage of reduced
  information costs to find new sources of profits.
   – Securitization – The process of transforming illiquid
     assets into marketable securities. Banks will take a
     portfolio of loans (such as mortgages) and “bundle”
     them. They will then issue securities with a promise
     to pass on the repayment of the loans to the
     owners of the securities.
   – Off-Balance Sheet Activities – Banks provide
     promises of lines of credit to firms that participate in
     securities markets.
           Housing Bubble




www.calculatedrisk.com
Rapid Growth of Mortgage Lending
           all sectors home mortgages asset


12000000
11000000
10000000
 9000000
 8000000
 7000000
 6000000
 5000000
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                 Causes?
• Low Interest Rates
  – Real Interest Rates – Saving Glut
  – ST Rates Fed
• Limits on Growth in Desirable Locations
• Securitization
• Decline in Lending Standards
         0.00
                0.50
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Jan-99
Jul-99

Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
                                                                                      10 Year Fixed Rate




Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06

Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
                                                                                                           Savings Glut: Low Real Interest Rate
                TIPS Bond
• Treasury Inflation Protected Securities
  – Bond issued by US Treasury (UK and France
    offer similar). Principal and coupon payments
    are indexed to inflation.
• Offer a way to protect against inflation risk.
  TIPS Rate: Discount Bond Example
  • TIPS Bond
      – Calculate Yield to Maturity
                                          FACE VALUE
                       1  ytmtTIPS  T
                                ,T
                                           PRICEtTIPS
      – Calculate Average Return
                                   (1   t:t T )T  FACE VALUE
                   1  itTIPS
                         ,T     T
                                                PRICEtTIPS

Average inflation between t and t+T, πt:t+T

                    1  itTIPS  1  ytmtTIPS  (1   t:t T )
                           ,T               ,T
    • Arbitrage says that if risk neutral expected
      returns of TIPS should equal returns of
      non inflation protected bonds. Or the
      calculated yield on TIPS bonds equals the
      real interest rate.
 1  it ,T  E[1  itTIPS ]  1  ytmtTIPS  (1   tEt T )  ytmtTIPS  rt ,T
                      ,T                 ,T            :              ,T



    • If people are averse to inflation risk, then
      the TIPS rate is below real interest rate.
                         it ,T   tEt T   ytmtTIPS   rp
                                      :              ,T
      Monetary Policy
• .
                       Loans Serviced for Others

  6500000000

  6000000000

  5500000000

  5000000000

  4500000000

  4000000000

  3500000000

  3000000000

  2500000000

  2000000000
               2001   2002   2003   2004         2005   2006   2007   2008
                                           US$




Securitization: FDIC Statistics on Banking: All FDIC Institutions
                                         Share of Mortage Assets Held By

120.00%


100.00%


80.00%
                                                                                                                                   Other
                                                                                                                                   ABS
60.00%
                                                                                                                                   GSE
                                                                                                                                   Bank FI's
40.00%


20.00%


 0.00%
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Banks Increase Holdings of Real
        Estate Holdings
                              Bank RE Based Securities

     1,200,000,000



     1,000,000,000



      800,000,000



      600,000,000



      400,000,000



      200,000,000



                0
                2001   2002      2003    2004    2005    2006   2007   2008

                                           MBS   CMO
     CMO: Collateralized Mortgage
            Obligations Sample
• An SPV is set up to
  purchase mortgages
  and issue bonds
  which pay out in
  tranches. Tranches
  are orderings of
  payments in terms of
                            M. Brunnermeier, Princeton U. Slides.
  seniority. Each
                                  Commercial and Investment Banks
  tranche is has its own often set up SPV
  credit rating. Special purpose vehicle: Quasi-
                    independent company set up to
                    manage asset.
 Collateralized Debt Obligations
• A special purpose vehicle that buys
  quantities of debt securities (often MBS or
  CMO tranches) that might be low rated
  and turn it into tranches some of which
  might be better rated.

                                Senior Tranche AAA
  BBB Securities

                     SPV          Junior Tranche
  BBB Securities
                             AAA tranches may have paid
                             higher returns than typical
  BBB Securities             AAA securities. Attractive to
                             institutions restricted to AAA
  Reasons for CMO’s & CDO’s
• GSE’s are limited in terms of the size of
  mortgages they could buy. Part of the mandate
  of GSE’s is enhancing lending to poorer
  households, but at various times there were
  limits on sub-prime mortgages that could be
  purchased by GSE’s.
• Certain institutions by charter need to invest in
  AAA securities.
• Banks held many of the “super” senior tranches
  in their own accounts.
  Declining Lending Standards
• Subprime Lending – Borrowers without
  requisite credit rating.
• Option ARM
• Interest Only Mortgages
• Negative Equity Mortgages
• NINA Verification Mortgages
• Alt-A (Good Credit Score, NI verification)
       Advance of Subprime
• Between 1998-2003, 10% of new loans
  were sub-prime
• In 2004, 28% of new loans, in 2005, 36%,
  and in 2006, 40%.
  Sample Definition (Wikipedia)
FNMA prime loans go to borrowers with
• a credit score above 620 (credit scores are
  between 350 and 850 with a median in the U.S.
  of 678 and a mean of 723),
• a debt-to-income ratio no greater than 45%
  (meaning that no more than 45% of gross
  income pays for housing and other debt), and
• a combined loan-to-value ratio of 90% (meaning
  that the borrower is paying a 10% down
  payment).
         Sub-prime Lenders
• An industry of financial intermediaries that
  specialized in making mortgage loans pre-
  packaged for securitization arose.
• Many of these specialized in the sub-prime
  market.
• Typically, these were sold to SPV’s rather
  than GSE’s.
      End of Housing Bubble
• In 2005, housing prices reached a peak.
• However, by reducing lending standards
  and increasing reliance on sub-prime
  lending, mortgage lending continued to
  grow.
• By 2007, housing prices began to fall.
        Increasing Loan Losses
         Deliquency Rates All Commercial Banks                 Credit
                                                               performance
    7
                                                               worse at sub-
    6                                                          prime lenders.

    5

                                                               Mortgage losses
    4
                                                 Residential   estimated at
%




    3
                                                 All           $1.4 trilion by
                                                               IMF
    2


    1


    0
    19 .25
    19 .50
    19 .75
    19 .00
    19 .25
    19 .50
    20 .75
    20 .00

    20 .25
    20 .50
    20 .75
    20 .00
    20 .25
    20 .50

           5
         .7
       91
       92
       93
       95
       96
       97
       98
       00
       01

       02
       03
       05
       06
       07
       08
    19
                   Valuation
• Although many MBS, CMO, and CDO’s
  have shown increased defaults but for
  many these may not yet be large, rising
  risk of have impacted their value.
• Discount factor for future cash flows
           itDF  itRISKFREE  Risk Premiumt

• Rising risk premium has reduced price of
  the assets.
    Mark to Market Accounting
• For easily traded securities, current accounting
  practice suggests valuing assets on books at the
  current market price.
• Problem: A change in valuation of assets will
  affect capital (assets – liabilities). Restrictive
  covenants which require minimum capital may
  be violated if value of assets drop.
• Lenders may have option to recall loans if
  covenants violated.
 Liquidity of CMO’s and CDO’s
• There is much uncertainty and asymmetric
  info in CMO’s. Difficult for a potential
  investor to evaluate quality of the
  mortgage loan bundle while bundler/seller
  may have better idea.
• Increased risk has generated lemon’s
  problem.
• Wide bid/ask spreads makes it difficult to
  reasonably implement M2M accounting.
                         Issues
• Capitalization: Banks and other holders of mortgage
  backed securities are likely to take large losses on
  defaults.
• Liquidity: MMMF are supposed to be safe investments;
  once risk becomes known MMMF‘s pull out of
  commercial paper market go into treasuries.
• Complexity: CDO’s and CMO’s are complicated
  instruments; difficult to tell good from bad. In hard times,
  adverse selection may make selling them w/o huge
  discount problematic.
• Business cycle issue. Large contraction in consumption
  and investment likely to make default rates rise.
                   Rates Rise




Fed Board of Governors
Commercial Paper Market Dries Up
• March 2008
  – Bear Stearns acquired by J.P. Morgan with
    Fed help. .
• September 2008,
  – FNMA & FHLMC placed in conservatorship.
  – Merrill Lynch acquired by Bank of America
  – Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy
  – AIG received emergency loan from Federal
    Reserve.[176] which acquired a 79.9% equity
  – Washington Mutual (WaMu), seized
    November 2008, US government guarantees
    ads of Citigroup
                                                                           Interbank Rates
Spread over 1-Month Treasury Bill Rate, Percentage




                                                     4.0

                                                     3.5

                                                     3.0                                                                 LIBOR--large
                                                                                                                         banks
                                                     2.5

                                                     2.0
                     Points




                                                     1.5

                                                     1.0

                                                     0.5

                                                     0.0
                                                                                                                           Federal funds--small
                                                     -0.5
                                                         Jul-01   Jul-02    Jul-03   Jul-04   Jul-05   Jul-06   Jul-07             Jul-08




Hall (Stanford) and Woodward
Policy Responses
Standard Monetary Policy
       Response
                 Non-standard
                  Response
• Discount rate reduced to 50 basis point
  above target in September 2007 and now
  25 basis points above.
  – Also in HK
• Fed now pays interest on reserve
  deposits.
• Quantitative easing has pushed effect rate
  below target.
Programs for Expanding Monetary Liabilities

• Term Auction Facility – Auction Reserves to banks,
  banks use GSE MBS other securities as collateral.
• Primary Credit Dealer Facility – Direct lending to
  securities funds.
• Term Securities Loan Facility – Fed swaps T-Bills for
  GSE MBS
• ABCP MMMF Liquidity Facility – Fed lends to MMMF
  using ABCP as collateral.
• CP Funding Facility – Direct lending for purchases of
  CP.
• MM Investor Funding Facility – Purchase assets from
  MMMFs
     Direct Bailouts from FED
• September 2008: Federal Reserve makes direct
  loans to AIG insurance (> US$85 Billion
  – AIG sold CDS on CDO’s and CMO’s. Because AIG
    had AAA credit rating, counterparties were willing to
    pay for insurance w/o collateral.
  – When possibility of losses increased and AIG lost
    AAA credit rating, collateral requirements caused
    liquidity crisis at AIG.
• November 2008: Federal Reserve writes credit
  insurance on US$300 Billion in Citibank CDO’s.
Balance Sheets of U.S. Federal Reserve
 Liabilities
 Monetary Base
 Federal Reserve Notes                                719.4
 Deposits of Depository Institution                      24
 Nonbase Liabilities
 Deposts of U.S. Treasury                                5.9
 Other                                                  37.8

 Assets
 Foreign Currency Assets                               21.4
 US Government Securities                             725.6
 Discount Loan                                          0.4
 Other Assets                                          63.8

                        Billion US$, 12-2004, Federal Reserve
                        Annual Report
                                                              Change Since
                                                  Wednesday   Wednesday
Assets                                            19-Nov-08         21-Nov-07
Gold certificate account                             11,037                  0
Special drawing rights certificate account            2,200                  0
Coin                                                  1,648                470
Securities, repurchase agreements, term auction
credit, and other loans                           1,272,929            438,201
  Securities held outright                          488,926           -290,744
   U.S. Treasury (1)                                476,425           -303,245
   Bills (2)                                         18,423           -248,596
   Notes and bonds, nominal (2)                     410,491            -60,493
   Notes and bonds, inflation-indexed (2)            41,071              4,160
   Inflation compensation (3)                         6,440              1,684
   Federal agency (2)                                12,501             12,501
  Repurchase agreements (4)                          80,000             25,000
  Term auction credit                               415,302            415,302
  Other loans                                       288,702            288,644
Net portfolio holdings of Commercial Paper
Funding Facility LLC (5)                           270,879             270,879
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC (6)       26,919              26,919
Items in process of collection                       1,115              -3,250
Bank premises                                        2,178                  64
Other assets (7)                                   599,780             560,932
                                                                Change Since
                                                    Wednesday   Wednesday
Liabilities                                         19-Nov-08       21-Nov-07
Federal Reserve notes, net of F.R. Bank holdings      828,617          42,240
Reverse repurchase agreements (8)                     102,909          67,526
Deposits                                            1,209,231       1,182,538
   Depository institutions                            630,492         609,525
   U.S. Treasury, general account                      68,457          63,133
   U.S. Treasury, supplementary financing account     508,956         508,956
   Foreign official                                       183               87
  Other                                                 1,143              837
Deferred availability cash items                        2,742             -346
Other liabilities and accrued dividends (9,10)          4,194           -1,702

Total liabilities                                   2,147,694        1,290,257

Capital accounts
Capital paid in                                       20,373             2,284
Surplus                                               17,166             1,709
Other capital accounts                                 3,453               -35

Total capital                                         40,992             3,959
          500000
                   600000
                            700000
                                     800000
                                              900000
                                                       1000000
                                                                 1100000
                                                                           1200000
2001-01
2001-06
2001-11
2002-04
2002-09
2003-02
2003-07
2003-12
2004-05
2004-10
2005-03
                                                                                     Monetary Base, SA, BA




2005-08
2006-01
2006-06
2006-11
2007-04
2007-09
2008-02
2008-07
                   Financing
• At first, FED would sell Treasury bills to sterilize
  credit issued to financial institutions to keep the
  monetary base from expanding.
• September 2008 - Treasury Supplementary
  Financing – Treasury would sell bills, deposit
  cash at the FED and this could be used for
  lending to financial system.
• November 2008 More direct lending into bank
  reserve accounts and direct purchases of
  assets.
                         0.00
                                0.50
                                       1.00
                                              1.50
                                                     2.00
                                                            2.50
                                                                   3.00
                                                                          3.50



              7/1/2008
              7/8/2008
             7/15/2008
             7/22/2008
             7/29/2008
              8/5/2008
             8/12/2008




Effective
             8/19/2008
             8/26/2008
              9/2/2008




Target
              9/9/2008
             9/16/2008
             9/23/2008
             9/30/2008



Discount
             10/7/2008
            10/14/2008
            10/21/2008
Deposit

            10/28/2008
             11/4/2008
            11/11/2008
            11/18/2008
        Interbank Market
iIBR


iDW
 iTGT                      S

                           iDEPO


                      D

                      Reserve Accounts
        Quantitative Easing
iIBR


iDW
 iTGT                       S

                            iDEPO


                        D

                       Reserve Accounts
Purposes of Quantitative Easing
• Fed supports lending in Money Market
  eases liquidity crunch.
• Fed accepts CDO’s and CMO’s as
  collateral to increase liquidity in this
  market and reduce lemon’s problem.
• Fed absorbs risk of bank assets increasing
  capital cushion for other bank creditors to
  increase interbank lending.
       Possible Side Effects
• Direct transfer of resources to banking
  sector.
• In the future, if there are losses, the
  central bank may need to increase the
  money supply.
                   TARP
• Troubled Asset Relief Program
  – Original plan, U.S. treasury by CDOs and
    CMO’s and add liquidity to the market, narrow
    spreads and improve balance sheets.
  – Current plan, US treasury buys preferred
    stock on generous terms from banks and I-
    banks and increase their capitalization.
                                                       Stock Market

                       50                                                                                         20
                                                                                                        2000
                       45                                                                                         18
                       40                                                                        1981             16




                                                                                                                      Long-Term Interest Rates
Price-Earnings Ratio




                       35                                            1929                                         14
                       30                                                                                         12
                                                       1901                               1966
                       25       Price-Earnings Ratio                                                              10
                       20                                                                                         8
                       15                                     1921                                                6
                       10                                                                                         4
                        5      Long-Term Interest Rates                                                           2
                        0                                                                                         0
                        1860        1880           1900       1920          1940   1960          1980   2000   2020
                                                                            Year
           Global Spillovers
• Many banks in Europe took large positions in
  CDO’s and many European countries have
  offered deposit guarantees.
• American investment banks were large buyers in
  equity markets especially in Japan and there
  bankruptcy may have hurt demand for stocks
  and reduced liquidity.
• Banks earnings decline bringing down value of
  bank stocks directly.
Iceland Crisis
    Chinese Banking System

•    Dominated by Four State Owned Deposit Money Taking
     Banks (Industrial and Commercial, Construction Bank, Agricultural
     Bank, Bank of China) (Deposit Money Bank)
•    Other types of banks:
    1. Joint-Stock Commercial Bank (CITIC Industrial Bank,
        Bank of Communications, Everbright)
    2. City Commercial Bank (Bank of Shanghai, Bank of
        Beijing, Bank of Tianjian)
    3. Credit Cooperatives (Collective Banks – Urban and
        Rural)
    4. Policy Banks (Export Import Bank, China Development
        Bank)
     Distribution of Assets: PRC
                                  Share of Assets: China


70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
     SOE Commerical State Policy Bank   Joint Stock   Credit Cooperative City Commercial
         Bank                         Commercial Bank                          Bank



Source: Mckinsey Global Institute
    Characteristics of China’s
        financial market.
• Bank lending (especially by big 4) has
  traditionally been channeled to State Owned
  Enterprises (SOE’s) for policy reasons
  rather than traditional profit.
• SOE sector is declining.
• As a result, many of the loans made by
  Chinese banks go bad.
  Importance as a Store of Wealth

• Chinese savers have limited options for
  storing their wealth.
  – Bond markets are limited and mutual funds
    rare.
  – Stock markets not transparent and volatile.
  – Capital account closed. No legal foreign assets.
• As a result, huge share of savings
  channeled to the banking sector.
Deposits are major channel for
       saving in PRC
              Bank Deposits as Share of GDP


  200.0%
  180.0%
  160.0%
  140.0%
  120.0%
  100.0%
  80.0%
  60.0%
  40.0%
  20.0%
   0.0%
           China                              USA
Banks on the Eve of Reform
• Problem
  – Many loans are made on a non-
    commercial basis. A large share of
    loans are non-performing.
Banking System in 2002/2004:
 (Source: Asian Wall Street Journal {2002}/ BusinessWeek {2004})

Big Four Banks                                       Official
                                                     NPL
                                                     Ratio
Industrial & Commercial Bank of                      21.56%
China
Bank of China                                        18.07%/
                                                     5.46%
China Construction Bank                              11.92%/
                                                     3.08%
Agricultural Bank of China                           30.07%
Reasons that NPL’s fell so fast
– [AMC’s] Asset Management Companies
  have purchased Yuan 1.4 Trillion worth
  of bad loans from banks.
– Credit Management : Banks have
  improved their lending practices.
– More Loans- Banks have gone on a
  lending binge and fresh loans may not
  have gone bad yet.
              Share Sales
• Central government has a policy to make
  many of the banks publicly listed
  companies.
• Banks will sell shares to investors and the
  shares will trade in HK and must meet HK
  corporate governance standards.
• State will retain majority control.
• Foreign banks will take strategic stakes to
  help transfer their expertise.
                Regulation
• Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission
  formed to regulate banking system in 2006.
• People’ Bank of China still regulates interest
  rates especially deposit rates and prime rates
  though banks set lending rates by
  creditworthiness.
• Foreign banks can set up operations in 8 large
  cities and can since 2006 accept deposits in
  Renminbi.
               Final Exam
•   Date: Thursday December 18
•   Time: 8:30-11:30
•   Venue: LG1
•   Bring calculator, writing instrument
•   Format: Same as practice exam, mid-term
•   Coverage: Cumulative – Guidance (2/3
    after the mid-term).

				
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