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Quebec Home Builders Forecast Stable Housing Starts and

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Quebec Home Builders Forecast Stable Housing Starts and Powered By Docstoc
					The CHBA Poll                                                                                                                Winter 2011

Quebec Home Builders Forecast Stable Housing Starts and Stronger Renovation
Activity
                                                                                             New home builders in Quebec expect total
   Total Housing Starts                                                                       housing starts to be about 45,000 units in
   Quebec                                                                                     2011, down from the 51,363 units started in
                                                                                              2010, according to the latest Pulse Survey
  60
       Units (000s)                         58                                                conducted in December 2010 and January
                                      50         51                    51                     2011 by the Canadian Home Builders’
  50                                                   48 49 48
                                 43                               43
                                                                            45                Association (CHBA) and l’Association
  40                                                                                          provinciale des constructeurs d’habitations du
                            28
                                                                                              Quebec (APCHQ). Despite the moderation last
  30    26        26 25
             23                                                                               year, starts are expected to remain well above
  20                                                                                          the levels of the latter 1990s/early 2000s.
  10
                                                                                             Canada-wide, new home builders are
   0                                                                                          expecting about 172,100 starts in 2011,
        97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11f                                         somewhat lower than the 189,930 starts in
       Source: CMHC (historical) and Pulse Survey (forecast)                                  2010 and below the levels of the 2002-2008
                                                                                              period.

 Change in Renovation Activity                                                               On average, Quebec renovators responding to
 Quebec                                                                                       the Pulse Survey report stable activity. Almost
       % of Respondents                                                                       one quarter of renovators in Quebec report
  80                                              76                                          that their renovation activity is higher than 12
                                                                  Compared to 12
                                                                  Months Ago                  months ago, while about one fifth reported
  60                                       56                                                 lower activity.
                                                                  Expected Over Next 12
                                                                  Months
                                                                                             On average, renovators in Quebec expect a
  40
                                                                                              modest increase in their renovation activity
              24                                                                              over the next 12 months.
                                                                  20
  20                   16
                                                                            8
                                                                                             The average project reported by renovators in
   0                                                                                          Quebec is about $25,000 and takes 4 weeks to
                  Higher                    Same                   Lower                      complete.
  Changes in Traffic Compared to Last Year                                                   New home builders and renovators in Quebec
  Quebec                                                                                      on average report lower full-time employment
                                                                                              compared to a year ago and expect some
         % of Respondents
                                                                                              further decline in employment over the next
   75                                         Higher         Lower                            year.
   60
                                                                                             Quebec new home builders report lower traffic
                                                       44
   45                                                                                         on average at new home sales sites across all
                    36
                                        27                                      27            markets, especially among the custom
   30
                                                                      18                      segment of the move-up market and the first-
   15                             9                                                           time buyers segment.
             0                                     0
    0                                                                                        Over 1 in 3 new home builders in Quebec
            First-Time         Move-up: Tract/    Move-up:           Move-Down
              Buyers            Semi-Custom       Custom
                                                                                              report that inventories of started-but-unsold
                                                                                              single-detached units are lower this year
                                                                                              compared to a year ago while the rest report
                                                                                              inventories unchanged.
  Top Problems for New Home Builders
  Quebec                                                                                     New home builders in Quebec are planning
                                                                                              some shift from the first-time buyer segment
                           % of Respondents Indicating Each                                   to the move-up and move-down markets over
                           as a Critical Problem
                                                                                              the next year.
            Consumer
                                                                     13
            Confidence                                                                       The most often cited critical problems for
                                                                                              Quebec new home builders are consumer
          Serviced Lots                                                                       confidence, shortages and associated rising
            shortage
                                                              11
                                                                                              costs of serviced lots.

     Rising Serviced Lot                                                                     Almost half of new home builders in Quebec
                                                              11
            Prices                                                                            expect new single-detached house prices to
                                                                                              increase over the next year, while only about 1
                           0              5            10                  15        20       in 14 expect prices to decline.




The Pulse Survey was conducted by the CHBA and l’Association provinciale des constructeurs d’habitations du Quebec
(APCHQ) with assistance from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Natural Resources Canada. The survey was
tabulated and analyzed by Altus Group Economic Consulting. Copies of the detailed results are available from the CHBA
(chba@chba.ca) or APCHQ.

				
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