The CHBA Poll Winter 2011
Quebec Home Builders Forecast Stable Housing Starts and Stronger Renovation
New home builders in Quebec expect total
Total Housing Starts housing starts to be about 45,000 units in
Quebec 2011, down from the 51,363 units started in
2010, according to the latest Pulse Survey
Units (000s) 58 conducted in December 2010 and January
50 51 51 2011 by the Canadian Home Builders’
50 48 49 48
45 Association (CHBA) and l’Association
40 provinciale des constructeurs d’habitations du
Quebec (APCHQ). Despite the moderation last
30 26 26 25
23 year, starts are expected to remain well above
20 the levels of the latter 1990s/early 2000s.
Canada-wide, new home builders are
0 expecting about 172,100 starts in 2011,
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11f somewhat lower than the 189,930 starts in
Source: CMHC (historical) and Pulse Survey (forecast) 2010 and below the levels of the 2002-2008
Change in Renovation Activity On average, Quebec renovators responding to
Quebec the Pulse Survey report stable activity. Almost
% of Respondents one quarter of renovators in Quebec report
80 76 that their renovation activity is higher than 12
Compared to 12
Months Ago months ago, while about one fifth reported
60 56 lower activity.
Expected Over Next 12
On average, renovators in Quebec expect a
modest increase in their renovation activity
24 over the next 12 months.
The average project reported by renovators in
0 Quebec is about $25,000 and takes 4 weeks to
Higher Same Lower complete.
Changes in Traffic Compared to Last Year New home builders and renovators in Quebec
Quebec on average report lower full-time employment
compared to a year ago and expect some
% of Respondents
further decline in employment over the next
75 Higher Lower year.
Quebec new home builders report lower traffic
45 on average at new home sales sites across all
27 27 markets, especially among the custom
18 segment of the move-up market and the first-
15 9 time buyers segment.
0 Over 1 in 3 new home builders in Quebec
First-Time Move-up: Tract/ Move-up: Move-Down
Buyers Semi-Custom Custom
report that inventories of started-but-unsold
single-detached units are lower this year
compared to a year ago while the rest report
Top Problems for New Home Builders
Quebec New home builders in Quebec are planning
some shift from the first-time buyer segment
% of Respondents Indicating Each to the move-up and move-down markets over
as a Critical Problem
the next year.
Confidence The most often cited critical problems for
Quebec new home builders are consumer
Serviced Lots confidence, shortages and associated rising
costs of serviced lots.
Rising Serviced Lot Almost half of new home builders in Quebec
Prices expect new single-detached house prices to
increase over the next year, while only about 1
0 5 10 15 20 in 14 expect prices to decline.
The Pulse Survey was conducted by the CHBA and l’Association provinciale des constructeurs d’habitations du Quebec
(APCHQ) with assistance from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Natural Resources Canada. The survey was
tabulated and analyzed by Altus Group Economic Consulting. Copies of the detailed results are available from the CHBA
(firstname.lastname@example.org) or APCHQ.