ppt by yurtgc548

VIEWS: 5 PAGES: 33

									 1856-1914



(1) The First Age of
   Globalization?
      Pluses and minuses
 Economic   growth  Inequality
 Industrialization  Volatility
 Globalization      Political
 Democratization     backwardness
 Pax Britannica     International
                      instability
                        Growth
    World per capita GDP up
    – 1850 300 1990 US dollars
    – 1900 679 – more than double
    – 1920 956 – more than treble
   Average annual rate of growth of per capita GNP
    in Europe
    – pre-1800: c. 0.3 per cent
    – 1830-1910: 0.9 per cent
    – 1860s and 1890s: 1.5 per cent
           200
                 400
                       600
                             800
                                   1000
                                          1200




       0
1800

1805

1810

1815

1820

1825

1830

1835

1840

1845

1850

1855

1860

1865

1870

1875

1880

1885

1890

1895

1900
                                                 Average World Per Capita GDP (in 1990 International Dollars)




1905

1910

1915

1920
                                              1000
                                                      1200




                  0
                      200
                            400
                                  600
                                        800
Austria-Hungary


       Belgium


      Denmark


       Finland


        France


      Germany


          Italy


   Netherlands


       Norway


      Portugal


        Russia


         Spain
                                                             Per capita GNP by country (1960 $US)




       Sweden


    Switzerland
                                                     1913
                                                     1830




           UK


  Total Europe
              Industrialization
 The spread of the West European model of
  production
 Technology
    – spread of the first wave: coal, iron and steel,
      railways, steamships and cotton
    – the second wave (electrical engineering,
      chemicals, motorization)
                     Percentage of the active population employed in agriculture, 1850,
                                               1880 and 1910

90
                           c. 1850
80                         c. 1880
                           c. 1910
70

60

50

40

30

20

10

 0
                                              Netherlands
     Great Britain




                                                                                                                                               Hungary
                                Switzerland




                                                                      Norway
                                                            Germany




                                                                                                  Ireland




                                                                                                                                                         Bulgaria
                                                                                        Denmark




                                                                                                            Sweden




                                                                                                                                     Austria
                                                                               France
                     Belgium




                                                                                                                     Italy


                                                                                                                             Spain
                 Globalization
 Trade
 Labour
 Capital Flows
    – Exports as a proportion of national income for Europe
      rise from 9% to 14%
    – Between 1857 and 1893, the journey time from
      England to Cape Town was cut from 42 to 19 days;
      gross tonnage of steamships roughly doubled
    – ‘Distance has been almost abolished by steam and
      electricity.’ (Seeley)
                              Total trade as a percentage of GDP, 1870, 1910

80


70


60


50

                                                                                                    c.1870
40
                                                                                                    c.1910

30


20


10


 0
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                          y




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                                                                   U
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                                                                                            Ja
                                                                        an
                                                 or




                                                                                    st
          Fr




                                                          Sw
                                       en
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                                                 N




                                                                                  Au
                                                                        C
                   G




                                       D
                                           Trade and Tariffs

80

     Average tariff rates on dutiable
70   imports 1913
     Imports as a percentage of national
     income, 1885-1913
60


50


40


30


20


10


 0
         Britain                  Switzerland              Germany   Russia
                 Decadal Migration as a percentage of population, 1880s-1900s

60


50


40


30

                                                                                                     1880s
20                                                                                                   1890s
                                                                                                     1900s

10


 0




                                                                                       il
            ly
       K




                                               S




                                                                              a
                                en




                                                                 lia
                      n




                                                                                                 d
                                          l




                                                         a
                                        ga




                                                                                     az
                                                                              in
                      ai




                                                                                              an
                                                      ad
      U




                                              U
           Ita




                                                               ra
                             ed
                    Sp




                                                                           nt
                                       rtu




                                                                                   Br



                                                                                              al
                                                   an



                                                               st


                                                                         ge
                           Sw




                                                                                            Ze
                                     Po




                                                             Au
                                                   C




-10

                                                                       Ar




                                                                                        ew
                                                                                       N
-20
                    German annual emigration rate (per thousand of population)

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
      1870



             1875



                       1880



                              1885



                                     1890



                                            1895



                                                   1900



                                                          1905



                                                                 1910



                                                                        1915



                                                                               1920



                                                                                      1925



                                                                                             1930
        Foreign and colonial securities as a percentage of securities quoted
            on the London Stock Exchange (nominal values), 1853-1913

30

     Colonial/Commonwealth
     Foreign govt.
25



20



15



10



 5



 0
      1853         1863      1873        1883       1893        1903           1913
            Overseas investment as a percentage of British GNP, 1856-1913

10

 9

 8

 7

 6

 5

 4

 3

 2

 1

 0
     1856




                 1866




                              1876




                                            1886




                                                          1896




                                                                        1906
            Democratization
   Percentage of countries democratic up from
    c. 5 per cent to +20 per cent
            Percentage of all countries rated as democratic (with Polity III score
                                above 6 out of 10), 1800-1913
30



25



20



15



10



 5



 0
     1800



            1810



                   1820



                           1830



                                  1840



                                          1850



                                                  1860



                                                         1870



                                                                 1880



                                                                        1890



                                                                                1900



                                                                                       1910
            Pax Britannica?
   No multiple great power war between
    Sebastapol and the Marne
                   Number of wars in progress each year, 1816-1913

14
                                                                     Civil
                                                                      'Extra-systemic'
                                                                     Interstate
12



10



 8



 6



 4



 2



 0
     1816




            1826




                   1836




                            1846




                                    1856




                                            1866




                                                    1876




                                                            1886




                                                                      1896




                                                                                  1906
BUT…
                     Inequality
Hamburg, c. 1892
 Working hours up to 82 hours per week
 Income distribution: 1% of taxpayers earned 29%
  of income
 Quality of housing: West End and East End.
    – The great bacteriologist Robert Koch on Alley Quarters
      in 1892: ‘I forget I am in Europe’
   1892 cholera epidemic mortality rates per 1000 by
    income group:
    – 50,000 marks and more          4.8
    – 1,000 marks and less           61.9
                Volatility
 ‘The Great Depression’?
 Rapid fluctuations of prices, employment
  and output
                      Europe's GNP growth rate, 1856-1913

12.0

10.0

 8.0
                                                               Five-year moving average

 6.0

 4.0

 2.0

 0.0
        1856




               1866




                             1876




                                           1886




                                                        1896




                                                                         1906
 -2.0

 -4.0

 -6.0

 -8.0

-10.0
                     Wholesale prices in Germany, 1792-1918 (1913 = 100)

200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
 90
 80
 70
 60
 50
      1792



             1802



                    1812



                           1822



                                  1832



                                         1842



                                                1852



                                                       1862



                                                              1872



                                                                     1882



                                                                            1892



                                                                                   1902



                                                                                          1912
             Europeanization
 Britain, France,           Indian per capita GNP
  Belgium, Holland and        1820 533 1990 US
  Germany: 0.9% of the         dollars
  world’s land surface
                              1870 533
  and 7.5% of its
  population                  1913 673

 They ruled 33% of the
  rest of the world’s area
  and 27% of its people
          Relative shares of world manufacturing output, 1800, 1860, 1900

70



60                                                             1800
                                                               1860
                                                               1900
50



40



30



20



10



 0
     Europe       UK       Germany     Russia      France     Habsburg      Italy
                                                               Empire
Au
  st
    ria
          -H




                                                   100
                                                         120
                                                               140




                           0
                               20
                                    40
                                         60
                                              80
            un
                ga
                    ry
           Be
               lg
                  iu
                    m
            Fr
                an
                    ce
          G
            er
               m
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                     y
                Ita
                      ly
             R
              us
                 s  ia
              Sp
                ai
                   n
          Sw
              e
       Sw den
         itz
             er
               la
                  nd

                 U
                  K
                U
                  SA
           Ja
               pa
                   n
 In         C
    di         hi
       a-         na
         Pa
            ki
               st
                  an
             Br
               az
                   il
                                                                     Per capita industrialisation levels, 1860-1913 (UK in 1900=100)




            M
             ex
                ic
                   o
                                         1913
                                         1900
                                         1880
                                         1860
-60
      -40
             -20
                               0
                                   20
                                        40
                                             60
                                                  80
                    Canada

                         US

              Argentina

                   Ireland b

               Germany

               Finland a

                   Sweden

                   Belgium

                     Italy a

               Denmark

                    Mexico

                         UK

                    Norway

                    Austria

            Netherlands

                    France

                   Russia a

                   Japan a

            Czechoslova

                      Spain

              Pakistan a

             Switzerland

                    China a

              Indonesia

                       India

            Bangladesh
                                                       Percentage change in per capita income, mid-century to 1910




              Hungary b

                      Brazil

              Thailand b

                   Portugal

               Australia
           Political
        Backwardness
   Queen Victoria’s sons- and
    daughters-in-law included:
    – Frederick William of Prussia
    – Prince Christian of Schleswig-Holstein
    – Henry of Battenberg, whose brother
      Alexander became Prince of Bulgaria
    – Princess Alexandra of Denmark
    – Princess Marie, daughter of Tsar
      Alexander II and sister of Tsar
      Alexander III
    International Instability?
 The unspoken assumptions of the imperial
  world order
 From Realpolitik to Weltpolitik
          Next 3 Lectures
 Nationalism and nation building – the
  German Question
 The Russian Question: The state, economic
  development and political stability
 Imperialism and the Origins of the First
  World War

								
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