August Economic Update

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					Inflation
Indicator                                   Result                      Source
Producer Price Index              PPI decreased 1.9% in Dec.        Commerce Dept
                                                                    Bureau of Labor
Consumer Price Index             Inflation at .1% annual rate          Statistics

Confidence
Indicator                                   Result                       Source

Consumer confidence              Increase 2 points, up to 61.9      Univ of Michigan

CEO confidence                       Below levels of 1980          Conference Board

Economic Growth
Indicator                                   Result                       Source

GDP                                 Contracted 3.8% in Q4           Commerce Dept

ISM Manufacturing Index                      35.6                         ISM

ISM Service Index                            42.9                       ISM
Durable goods orders                 Declined 2.6% in Dec           Commerce Dept

Non-Durable goods orders                Down 4.8% in Dec             Commerce Dept
                              Weak economy in 2009 and distinct possibility of prolonged recession. GDP contraction for all
                              of 2009 - bigger contractions in Q1 & Q2, possible small gains in Q3/Q4. Unemployment to rise
Federal Reserve Forecast      significantly into 2010.

Congressional Budget Office   Economy to contract in 2009 by 2.2%. Grow in 2010 of 1.5%. Unemployment to reach high in
Forecast                      2010 at 9%. Consumer inflation at .1% for 2009. Home prices fall 14% through Q2 2010.

Consumer Economy
Indicator                                  Result                        Source
                               Declined 2.7% from Nov to Dec,
Retail Sales                          and .1% for year              Commerce Dept

                                                                  American Bankruptcy
Consumer Bankruptcies                  Up 32% in 2008                  Institute

Housing & Real estate
Indicator                                   Result                       Source

Housing Starts                        Down 15% in Dec               Commerce Dept
                          Fell 15.3% year over year in Dec to
Median home price                        $175K                  Commerce Dept
Existing home sales              Increased 6.5% in Dec.         Commerce Dept
Pending home sales                   Up 6.3% in Dec             Commerce Dept

New home sales                    15% decline in Dec             Commerce Dept
                                                                National Assoc. of
Homebuilder sentiment                 Score of 8                  Homebuilders
Home foreclosures               Increased 81% in 2008              RealtyTrac


Rents for Office Space           Fell 1.2% in Q4 2008               Reis, Inc.

Shopping Mall Vacancies     7.1% vacancy rate in Q4 2008            Reis, Inc.

Employment
Indicator                               Result                       Source

Unemployment Rate               Rose from 7.2 to 7.6%                  BLS

Unemployment Rate plus
underemployed               Up to 13.9% from 9% last year              BLS
                    Trend/Significance
               PPI fell for 5 months in a row.

                Smallest increase since 1954



                    Trend/Significance

             Second consecutive monthly gain
              CEO confidence is important in
               making investment decisions



                    Trend/Significance
              Biggest quarterly decline in 26
                           years
            Below 50 is contraction. Score rose
                     from 30 year low
               Below 50 is contraction. Slight
              improvement over last month.
                   5th month of decline


of prolonged recession. GDP contraction for all
ble small gains in Q3/Q4. Unemployment to rise



2010 of 1.5%. Unemployment to reach high in
. Home prices fall 14% through Q2 2010.



                    Trend/Significance
               Year over year fell 9.8%. Sales
                declined 6 months in a row




                   Trend/Significance
             Annual rate of 550,000, lowest on
                          record
 Likely due to price decreases
 Likely due to price decreases
Lowest since 1963. Now a 12.9
 month supply of new homes.
Record low. 0 is lowest possible
             score.
        Record increase

Largest decline since 2003. Rents
fell in 65 of 79 major US markets
 Largest quarterly increase in at
            least 9 years



      Trend/Significance
Job losses large and widespread
        across industries.

 Includes involuntary part-time
workers and discouraged workers
Inflation
Indicator                                  Result                        Source

Producer Price Index          PPI increased .8% in Jan. from Dec     Commerce Dept

Consumer price index          CPI increased .3% in Jan from Dec      Commerce Dept

Confidence
Indicator                                  Result                        Source
                             Declined to 25. 100 is considered a
Consumer confidence                    "neutral" score.             Conference Board



Economic Growth
Indicator                                  Result                        Source

Wall Street Journal Survey of Surveyed economists forecast an annualized 4.6% contraction of US GDP in Q1 09 and 1.5%
Economists                    annualized decline for Q2. Growth returns in Q3 at .7% and Q4 at 1.9%



US trade Deficit             $677B deficit for 2008                Commerce Dept

Durable goods orders         Declined 5.2% in Jan, from Dec     Commerce Dept
                             Revised GDP figures: 6.2%
                             annualized decline in Q4 08, 1.1.%
GDP                          growth for all of 08.              Commerce Dept
                             Rose to 35.8 for Jan, from 35.6 in
ISM Manufacturing Index      Dec                                ISM

                                 "The economy will be in shambles throughout 2009, and, for that matter, probably well
                                                                          beyond"
                                "[The economy] can't turn around on a dime" and potentially inflation could return that is
                                                             worse than that of the late 1970s.
                               He predicted that unemployment will climb a lot higher before the recession is done, but he
                                also reiterated his optimistic long-term view: "Everything will be all right. We do have the
Warren Buffet Quote                              greatest economic machine that man has ever created."

Consumer Economy
Indicator                                 Result                        Source
Retail Sales                    Increase 1% from Dec to Jan          Commerce Dept
Consumer spending                 Rose .6% from Dec to Jan           Commerce Dept
Personal savings                         Now at 5%                   Commerce Dept

                                                                   American Bankruptcy
Consumer Bankruptcies              Up 29% in Jan from Dec               Institute
Housing & Real estate
Indicator                             Result                       Source
                                                              National Assoc. of
Home prices                     Down 15% in Q4                     Realtors
                           Down 12% year over year, to        National Assoc. of
Median sale price                   $180K                          Realtors

                         10% fewer foreclosures in Jan than
Foreclosure Rate                       Dec                       RealtyTrac
                          Decline 17% from Dec and 56%
Housing Starts                     from Jan 08                Commerce Dept
Building Permits             50% decline since Jan 08         Commerce Dept
                                                               Nat'l Assoc of
Existing home sales        Decline 5.3% in Jan from Dec          Realtors
                         Declined 10% from Dec to Jan, 48%
New home sales                       annually                  Commerce Dept
                                                              National Assoc. of
Pending home sales          Fell 7.7% from Jan from Dec            Realtors

Employment
Indicator                             Result                       Source
Continuing claims for
unemployment insurance    4.8M people in last week of Jan        Labor Dept

New claims                  623,000 in last week of Jan          Labor Dept
                         Rose to 8.1% in Jan from 7.6% in
Unemployment Rate                       Dec                          BLS
Unemployment Rate plus   Up to 14.8% in Jan, from 13.9% in
underemployed                           Dec                          BLS
                     Trend/Significance

                  First increase in 5 months

                 Right in line with predictions



                     Trend/Significance

              Lowest score on record (42 years)




                     Trend/Significance

6% contraction of US GDP in Q1 09 and 1.5%
3 at .7% and Q4 at 1.9%

             Imports and exports set record
             highs
             Twice as bad as Wall Street
             expectations


             Worst annual growth since 2001.

                   Below 50 is contraction.

out 2009, and, for that matter, probably well
ond"
 " and potentially inflation could return that is
 of the late 1970s.
 lot higher before the recession is done, but he
 : "Everything will be all right. We do have the
  that man has ever created."



                    Trend/Significance
               Mainly due to higher gas prices
                  Ends six month decline
                    Highest since 1995

              A 25% overall increase is expected
                     from 2008 to 2009.
       Trend/Significance

      Largest fall on record
  Sales of foreclosed/defaulted
  homes were 45% of nat'l sales

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have
  a moratorium on foreclosures

      Lowest rate on record
           Record decline
   Sales at annual rate of 4.5M,
        slowest since 1997.

Lowest level on record (since 1963)

Lowest rate on record (since 2001)



       Trend/Significance

           Record High

           Down 8,000

14th straight month of contraction
  Includes involuntary part-time
workers and discouraged workers
Inflation
Indicator                               Result                       Source

Producer Price Index             Increased .1% in Feb              Labor Dept

Consumer price index             Increased .4% in Feb              Labor Dept

Confidence
Indicator                               Result                       Source
                          Declined to 25. 100 is considered a
Consumer confidence                 "neutral" score.            Conference Board



Economic Growth
Indicator                              Result                        Source
                            Revised 2008 Q4 GDP to 6.3%
GDP                            annualized contraction            Commerce Dept



US trade deficit             Declined to $36B in January          Treasury Dept
Durable goods orders        Increased 3.4% in Feb from Jan      Commerce Dept
                          Forecast a GDP decline of 7% for Q1 09, 4.5% decline for Q2, a 1.7% decline in Q3, and then a
UCLA Prediction                        slow return to growth. Unemployment will peak at 10.5% in mid '10
                           Increased to 36.3 In March from
ISM Manufacturing Index               35.8 in Feb                     ISM
                          Decreased to 40.8 in March, from
ISM Service Index                     41.8 in Feb                     ISM

Consumer Economy
Indicator                               Result                       Source

Household Debt                  Declined 2% in Q4 08.            Federal Reserve
Consumer Debt                  Declined 3.2% in Q4 08            Federal Reserve
                          Decreased 37% in March, year over
Auto sales                              year                    Wall Street Journal



Housing & Real estate
Indicator                               Result                      Source
Housing Starts                   Increased 22% in Feb            Commerce Dept

Building Permits                    Increased 3%
                                                                National Assoc. of
Homebuilder Sentiment       Scored 9 on a 100-point scale        Homebuilders
                                                                  National Assoc. of
Existing home sales              Increased 5.1% in February            Realtors
                              Year over year decrease of 15% in   National Assoc. of
Median existing home prices               February                     Realtors
                              Year over year decrease of 18% in   National Assoc. of
Median new home prices                    February                     Realtors
                                                                  National Assoc. of
New home sales                   Increased 4.7% in February            Realtors
                                                                  National Assoc. of
Pending home sales             Increased 2.1% in Feb from Jan          Realtors

Employment
Indicator                                  Result                    Source
                              According to a study from Manpower, 15% of the 31,800 companies surveyed plan on hiring
Future Employment                                       more employees from now until June.
                              Rose to 8.5% in March from 8.1%
Unemployment rate                          in Feb                      BLS

Unemployment Rate plus          Rose to 15.6% in March, from
underemployed                           14.8% in Feb                     BLS
                     Trend/Significance

             Over 12 months, PPI is down 1.3%
              Biggest monthly gain since July.
                 Mainly due to gas prices



                     Trend/Significance

             Lowest score on record (42 years)




                     Trend/Significance
             Third largest contraction in the last
                           50 years



                Six straight months of decline
                   First increase in 7 months
decline for Q2, a 1.7% decline in Q3, and then a
ment will peak at 10.5% in mid '10

                  Below 50 is contraction.

                  Below 50 is contraction.



                     Trend/Significance

             First decline on record (since 1951)
               First quarterly decline since '92

                  Better than expectations




                    Trend/Significance
                 Multi-family increased 82%
              Doesn't support starts as a long-
                         term trend
              1 point higher than January's all-
                          time low
                 Due to decreasing prices
            Second only to January's year-over-
                      year decrease

                 Lowest level since 2003.

                 Due to decreasing prices

                  Exceeded expectations



                    Trend/Significance
 the 31,800 companies surveyed plan on hiring
rom now until June.

                    Highest since 1983

              Includes involuntary part-time
             workers and discouraged workers
Inflation
Indicator                                      Result                       Source

Producer Price Index              Decreased 1.2% in March from Feb        Labor Dept

Consumer price index               Declined .1% in March from Feb         Labor Dept

Confidence
Indicator                                       Result                      Source
                                   Increased to 39.2 from 26.9 in
Consumer confidence                             March                  Conference Board
                                   Up to 61.9 in April, from 57.3 in
Consumer confidence                             March                  Univ of Michigan

Economic Growth
Indicator                                      Result                       Source


                                  Grew by about $1B, to $27.6B form
US trade deficit                            Feb to March               Commerce Dept
Durable goods orders                 Fell 0.8% in March from Feb       Commerce Dept

                                   Increased to 40.1 in April from
ISM Manufacturing Index                    36.3 in March                      ISM
                                   Increased to 43.7 in April, from
ISM Service Index                          40.8 in March                      ISM

Industrial production               Down 1.5% in March from Feb        Federal Reserve

Industrial Capacity Utilization             Fallen to 69%              Federal Reserve

Consumer Economy
Indicator                                      Result                     Source
Real Consumer Spending              Fell .2% in March, from Feb        Commerce Dept
Retail Sales                       Down 1.3% in March from Feb         Commerce Dept

Housing & Real estate
Indicator                                      Result                       Source

Housing Starts                     Down 10.8% in March, from Feb        Commerce Dept
Building Permits                     Fell 9% in March, from Feb         Commerce Dept
                                                                       National Assoc. of
Homebuilder Sentiment               Scored 14 on a 100-point scale       Homebuilders

Foreclosure Filings               Increased 17% from Feb to March         RealtyTrac
                                                                  National Assoc. of
Existing home sales              Fell 3% in March from Feb             Realtors
                              Year over year decrease of 12% in
Median existing home prices                 March                      Census
                                                                  National Assoc. of
New home sales                Essentially unchanged from March         Realtors
                                                                  National Assoc. of
Pending home sales              Rose 3.2% from Feb to March            Realtors

Employment
Indicator                                  Result                      Source
                               Rose to 8.9% April from 8.5% in
Unemployment rate                          March                         BLS

Unemployment Rate plus
underemployed                 Rose to 15.8% in April from 15.6%          BLS
     Trend/Significance
Down 3.5% year over year. Raises
      deflation concerns.

  Year over year, inflation is -.4%



        Trend/Significance

        Highest since Nov.
Better than expectations for 57.5.
        Highest since Sept.



        Trend/Significance



    First increase in 8 months
      Better than expected
     Below 50 is contraction.
Contracting 15 straight months, but
      at a slower rate now.

     Below 50 is contraction.

     Lowest level in 10 years

     Lowest since at least '69



       Trend/Significance
  Follows 2 months of increases
     Mostly due to auto sales



        Trend/Significance

  Second lowest score since '59
           Record low
Up from 9 last month. Biggest gain
            since '03.

      Up 46% year over year
"distressed properties" accounted
          for half of sales
Overall, some stabilization appears
          to be occurring

  Year over year sales fell 30.6%
1.6% higher than last year. May be
    due to stimulus incentives



       Trend/Significance

           25 year high

 Includes involuntary part-time
workers and discouraged workers
Inflation
Indicator                                   Result                         Source
                               Increased .3% in April from March
Producer Price Index                       from Feb                      Labor Dept

Consumer price index                    Rose .1% in May                      BLS

Confidence
Indicator                                    Result                        Source
                               Declined to 49.3 in June, from 54.8
Consumer confidence                          in May                   Conference Board

Consumer confidence            Up to 69 in June from 68.7 in May      Univ of Michigan

Economic Growth
Indicator                                    Result                        Source
                               Resvise Q1 GDP to an annual 5.5%
GDP                                 contraction, from 6.1%             Commerce Dept

Durable goods orders            Increased 1.8% from April to May       Commerce Dept
                               Increased to 44.8 in June from 42.8
ISM Manufacturing Index                      in May                          ISM

ISM Service Index                Up to 47 in June from 44 in May               ISM
                               “People talk about green shoots, I see many yellow weeds instead. When I look at the data…
                                see [problems with] consumption, retail sales, production, investment, housing, employment
                                conditions, etc." “So I expect the recession is going to last at least another six months… given
Nouriel Roubini (economist     the imbalance of the economy -- the weak position of households, consumers, banks, financia
who famously predicted            institutions, corporates -- they all have too much debt… I see a period of two years of low
current economic crisis)                                          economic growth in the U.S.”
Federal Reserve Revised 2009
Forecast                                   Unemployment: 9.2 to 9.6%, GDP: -2 to -2.3%, Core inflation: 1 to 1.5%


                               “An expectation of some growth late this year and next in the United States seems reasonable
                                 {though]... a really strong recovery, typical of most recessions, seems unlikely. Rather, it is
Former Fed Chairman Paul            going to be a long slog, with continuing high levels of unemployment... This is not an
Volcker                             environment in which inflationary pressures are at all likely for some time to come.”
                                   “I get figures on 70-odd businesses, a lot of them daily. Everything that I see about the
                              economy is that we've had no bounce. The financial system was really where the crisis was las
                              September and October, and that's been surmounted and that's enormously important. But in
                               terms of the economy coming back, it takes awhile. There were a lot of excesses to be wrung
                                out and that process is still under way and it looks to me like it will be under way for quite a
                               while. In the [Berkshire Hathaway] annual report, I said the economy would be in a shambles
                                this year and probably well beyond. I'm afraid that's true…“I had a cataract operation on my
                                left eye about a month ago and I thought maybe now I'll be able to see green shoots. We're
                                   not seeing them. Whether it's retailing, manufacturing, wherever. We have a big utility
                              operation. Industrial demand is down like we've never seen it for a simple thing like electricity
Warren Buffet                 So it hasn't happened yet. It will happen. I want to emphasize that. But it hasn't happened yet.
National Assoc. of Business
Economics Forecast               Recession predicted to end in second half of 2009. Unemployment to peak in early 2010.

Consumer Economy
Indicator                                   Result                         Source


Total US Household Debt                 Fell 1.1% in Q1               Federal Reserve
US Consumer savings rate                  Up to 6.9%                  Commerce Dept

Housing & Real estate
Indicator                                   Result                         Source

Housing Starts                 Down 12.8% in April from March,        Commerce Dept
Building Permits                    Rose 4.0% above April                Census
                                 342,000 homes in forclosure
Foreclosure Filings                    process in April                 RealtyTrac
                                                                     National Assoc. of
Existing home sales            Increased 2.4% in May from April           Realtors

Median home prices             Declined 2.2% in March from Feb        S&P/Case Shiller


New home sales                  Declined .6% month to month           Commerce Dept
                                                                     National Assoc. of
Pending home sales                 Up .1% in May from April               Realtors

Employment
Indicator                                  Result                          Source
                              Rose to 9.5% in June from 9.4% in
Unemployment rate                           May                              BLS
Unemployment Rate plus   Rose to 16.5% in June from 16.4%
underemployed                         in May                BLS
                   Trend/Significance
              Down 3.5% year over year. Raises
                    deflation concerns.

             Down 1.3% over the last 12 months



                     Trend/Significance

                 Increase to 55 was expected

                 4th month of improvement



                     Trend/Significance




               Beat expectation of .4% growth
               Below 50 is contraction. Highest
                         since 2008.

                     Below 50 is contraction.
ellow weeds instead. When I look at the data… I
 production, investment, housing, employment
 oing to last at least another six months… given
 tion of households, consumers, banks, financial
much debt… I see a period of two years of low
wth in the U.S.”

-2 to -2.3%, Core inflation: 1 to 1.5%


and next in the United States seems reasonable,
f most recessions, seems unlikely. Rather, it is
gh levels of unemployment... This is not an
 es are at all likely for some time to come.”
f them daily. Everything that I see about the
 ncial system was really where the crisis was last
ounted and that's enormously important. But in
while. There were a lot of excesses to be wrung
ooks to me like it will be under way for quite a
ort, I said the economy would be in a shambles
  that's true…“I had a cataract operation on my
ybe now I'll be able to see green shoots. We're
nufacturing, wherever. We have a big utility
e never seen it for a simple thing like electricity.
  to emphasize that. But it hasn't happened yet.”

 2009. Unemployment to peak in early 2010.



                     Trend/Significance
               1st ever consecutive quarters of
                 debt reduction. Consumers
                   continue to deleverage.
                      Highest since 1993



                      Trend/Significance

                    Lowest score since '59
                  Down 47% over last year
               New record. 1 in 374 homes in
                          forclosure
              2nd straight month of growth, but
                     under expectations

               Prices down 19%, year over year

                 Down 32.8% year over year.
               Expectations were for a 2% rise.

                    Up 6.7% from last year



                      Trend/Significance

                          25 year high
 Includes involuntary part-time
workers and discouraged workers
Inflation
Indicator                               Result                      Source

Producer Price Index          .09% fall from June to July          Labor Dept

Consumer price index            Decreased .02% in July                BLS

Confidence
Indicator                               Result                      Source

                           Declined to 46.6 in July from 49.3
Consumer confidence         in June and rose to 54.1 in Aug     Conference Board

Consumer confidence       Down to 63.2 in Aug from 66 in July   Univ of Michigan

Economic Growth
Indicator                               Result                      Source
                          Economy contracted at an annual
GDP                              rate of 1% in Q2               Commerce Dept
                            Fell 2.5% in June from May, but
Durable goods orders              increased 4.9% in July         Commerce Dept
                          Increased to 52.9 in Aug from 48.9
ISM Manufacturing Index                   in July                       ISM
                            Rose to 48.4 in Aug from 46.4 in
ISM Service Index                           July                        ISM
                           48% of U.S. mortgages will be underwater by 2011. Home prices to fall another 14% by 2011,
Deutsche Bank                                                for a total crash of 41%.

Canadian GDP                  GDP contacted 3.4% in Q2          Statistics Canada

Consumer Economy
Indicator                               Result                      Source

Personal Spending             Rose .2% in July from June        Commerce Dept

Consumer Credit                  Fell by $21.6B in July         Federal Reserve
Retail Sales                       Fell 2.9% in Aug             Federal Reserve

Housing & Real estate
Indicator                                Result                    Source
Housing Starts                 Fell 1% from June to July        Commerce Dept
Building Permits               Fell 1% from June to July           Census
                             360,149 homes in forclosure
Foreclosure Filings                  process in July               RealtyTrac
                                                                National Assoc. of
Existing home sales       Increased 7.2% in July from June           Realtors

                         14.9% decline, year over year in Q2
Median home prices       2009, up from 19.1% decline in Q1      S&P/Case Shiller

New home sales            Increased 9.6% in July from June       Commerce Dept
                                                                National Assoc. of
Pending home sales          Rose 3.2% in July from June              Realtors
                         “Our UMM [one of Shiller’s tradable housing market securities] is still not predicting any majo
                           increases going out five years. It’s predicting now that in five years, home prices will be 6%
Robert Schiller Quote                       higher than they are now. That is not a huge recovery.”

Employment
Indicator                             Result                         Source
                         Rose to 9.7% in Aug from 9.4% in
Unemployment rate           July (seasonally adjusted)                 BLS

Unemployment Rate plus   Rose to 16.8% in Aug from 16.3% in
underemployed                 July (seasonally adjusted)                BLS
Canadian Unemployment                   8.60%                   Statistics Canada

                                                                   Office of
                                                                 Management &
Federal Tax Receipts       Projected to fall 18% this year          Budget
                    Trend/Significance

            Down a record 6.8% from last year

            Down 2.1% over the last 12 months



                    Trend/Significance

             A reading above 90 would signal a
                    stabilized consumer

                 Lowest level since March



                    Trend/Significance

                Revision of earlier estimate

             July was largest jump since 2007.
              Below 50 is contraction. Highest
                     since June 2007.

                 Below 50 is contraction.
2011. Home prices to fall another 14% by 2011,
 rash of 41%.

                 Worse than expectations



                    Trend/Significance

            Effect of cash-for-clunkers program
                10% annual rate of dedcline,
                exceeded expectations by 4x
               12th straight month of decline


                    Trend/Significance
                  Small increase expected
                  Down 47% over last year
               1 in 355 homes in forclosure.
                  Highest rate since Jan 05
                    Increase largely due to
              foreclosures, distressed sales, and
                        lower-end units


                  Prices at about 2003 levels

                  Best rate in a almost a year

                   Highest level in two years
 arket securities] is still not predicting any major
 now that in five years, home prices will be 6%
That is not a huge recovery.”



                      Trend/Significance

                          25 year high

                Includes involuntary part-time
               workers and discouraged workers
                         11-year high




                   Worst reading since 1932
Inflation
Indicator                                     Result                         Source
                                Up .4% in Aug, .2% in Sept, & 0.3%
Consumer Price Index                           in Oct                      Labor Dept
                                Inceased 1.7% in Aug after falling
                                .2% in July, & then fell .6% in Sept
Producer price index                    & rose 0.3% in Oct                     BLS

Confidence
Indicator                                     Result                         Source
                                Fell from 54.1 in Aug to 53 in Sept
Consumer confidence                        and 47 in Oct               Conference Board

Consumer confidence                  Index score of 66 in Nov           Univ of Michigan

Economic Growth
Indicator                                     Result                         Source

GDP                               Economy increased 3.5% in Q3          Commerce Dept

Durable goods orders                 Fell 2.4% from July to Aug         Commerce Dept
                                Increased to 55.7 in Oct from 52.6
                                in Sept from 52.9 in Aug from 48.9
ISM Manufacturing Index                        in July                        ISM
                                 Down to 50.6 in Oct from 50.9 in
                                Sept, from 48.4 in Aug from 46.4 in
ISM Service Index                               July                          ISM
                                 Increased for 4th month in a row.
                                  Aug.at 69.6%, Sept at 70.5%, &
                                  Oct at 70.7% of total capacity in
Capacity Utilization                            use.                    Federal Reserve


                                Poverty in the U.S. has risen to its highest level in 11 years. 13.2% of Americas lived in poverty
Census Bureau Study               in 2008. This is up about 1 percentage point from 2007, and is the highest rate since 1997
                                 From 2007 to 2008, the median family income fell almost $2,000, to $50,300. Adjusting for
Census Bureau Study                            inflation, the average family has a lower income than in 1998.
                                The Chicago Fed’s national activity index indicates a second-half 2009 real GDP recovery. The
                                 index is a composite of over 80 indicators that gives a proxy for real GDP momentum. The
Chicago Fed National Activity                         index has gone up two straight months in a row.
Index
                                According to a National Association for Business Economics survey 81% of economists say the
National Association for         U.S. recession is over. 54% believe the jobs lost during the recession won't be regained until
Business Economics Survey                                                    2012.
                                   Warren Buffet made an "all-in wager on the economic future of the US" by acquiring
Warren Buffet                                           Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad




Consumer Economy
Indicator                                     Result                     Source
                               Rose 1.3% from July to Aug, but
Personal Spending                    decreased .5% in Sept           Commerce Dept
                               Down to 3% from 4% of personal
Personal Savings                             income                  Commerce Dept
                                Fell by $12B in Aug & $14.8B in
Consumer Credit                                Sept                  Federal Reserve
                               Fell 2.9% in Aug and fell 2.3% in
Retail Sales                          Sept, but up 1.4% Oct          Federal Reserve
                                Bank of America and Citigroup customers are defaulting on their credit cards at the highest
Credit Card Defaults                                        rates since the recession began.
                              30% of American shoppers plan on spending less this holiday season than last year, according
                             to market research firm NPD Group. 50% of those surveyed stated the “state of the economy
Holiday Spending                                will have a “significant effect on their holiday spending.”
Janet Yellen, President and  "The chances are slim for a robust rebound in consumer spending, which represents around 7
CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of percent of economic activity. Consumers are getting a boost from the fiscal stimulus package
San Francisco                                                But this program is temporary."

Housing & Real estate
Indicator                                   Result                       Source

                                Rose 1.5% from July to Aug and
Housing Starts                 .5% in Sept, but fell 10.6% in Oct    Commerce Dept
                              937,840 homes in forclosure in the
Foreclosure Filings                      3rd quarter.                   RealtyTrac

                                Subprime mortgages only account for about 1/3 of foreclosures, down from 50% last year.
Foreclosure details                                           Prime loans now comprise 58%.
                               Fell 2.7% from July to Aug & rose     National Assoc. of
Existing home sales                       9.4% in Sept                    Realtors

                               11.3% decline, year over year in
Median home prices             Oct up from 19.1% decline in Q1       S&P/Case Shiller

                                Rose 6.4% in Aug from July and
                               rose again in Sept such that sales   National Assoc. of
Pending home sales                are up 21% year-over-year              Realtors
Mortage Delinquencies            9.6% of private single-family and multiunit homes was delinquent in Q3, a record number.
                               The vacancy rate among offices for rent has risen to 16.5% (the highest in five years) and offic
                                 rents declined 8.5%, year-over-year, in Q3, which is the sharpest decline since 1995. From
Commerical Real Estate                                             research firm Reis Inc.
                                Delinquency rate on commercial
Delinquency rates on           mortgages up to $22.4B in Sept 09
commercial real estate                 vs. $3B in Sept 08               Credit Suisse

Employment
Indicator                                    Result                        Source
                                 Rose to 102.% from 9.8% from
Unemployment rate                 9.7% from Aug to Sept to Oct               BLS

Unemployment Rate plus           Rose to 17.5% from 17% from
underemployed                    16.8% from Aug to Sept to Oct               BLS


                                “The U.S. has shed 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the deepest
                               contraction since the Great Depression. Even if the job market started spitting out jobs as fas
                                  as it did during the 1990s boom, adding 2.15 million private-sector jobs a year, the U.S.
Wall Street Journal Analysis                   wouldn't get back to a 5% unemployment rate until late 2017.”
Janet Yellen, President and
CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of "My business contacts indicate that they will be very reluctant to hire again until they see clea
San Francisco                  evidence of a sustained recovery, and that suggests we could see another so-called jobless
                                    recovery in which employment growth lags the improvement in overall output."
                     Trend/Significance

               Down 0.2% over last 12 months


                  Down 1.9% over last year



                    Trend/Significance
             A reading above 90 would signal a
                    stabilized consumer

              2nd month of falling confidence



                     Trend/Significance

                    Exceeds expectation

                  Worse than expectations

              Below 50 is contraction. Oct was
              fastest pace of growth in 3 years



                  Below 50 is contraction.


              Highest since Feb. Often used to
                 signal end of downturns.


 in 11 years. 13.2% of Americas lived in poverty
from 2007, and is the highest rate since 1997
e fell almost $2,000, to $50,300. Adjusting for
as a lower income than in 1998.
ates a second-half 2009 real GDP recovery. The
at gives a proxy for real GDP momentum. The
 traight months in a row.

ss Economics survey 81% of economists say the
st during the recession won't be regained until
12.
he economic future of the US" by acquiring
 n Santa Fe Railroad




                     Trend/Significance
             Cash for Clunkers drove spending &
                     then dropped away

                      Incomes rose .2%
               7th & 8th consecutive month of
                           decline

             After-effects of "cash for clunkers."
 defaulting on their credit cards at the highest
recession began.
ess this holiday season than last year, according
ose surveyed stated the “state of the economy”
 t on their holiday spending.”
 onsumer spending, which represents around 70
 etting a boost from the fiscal stimulus package.
m is temporary."


                     Trend/Significance

             Aug was highest level in 9 months,
             but Oct was biggest drop since Jan
             Record number in foreclosure. 23%
                    rise year over year.

1/3 of foreclosures, down from 50% last year.
w comprise 58%.
             Momentum is from first time home
                        buyer credit

                    7th month in a row of
                        improvement

             8th consecutive month of growth,
             but NAR expects relapse when tax
                      credit expires.
omes was delinquent in Q3, a record number.
en to 16.5% (the highest in five years) and office
 hich is the sharpest decline since 1995. From
rm Reis Inc.



                          7x increase



                     Trend/Significance
              26 year high. 35.6% have been out
                    of work for 6 months

               Includes involuntary part-time
              workers and discouraged workers


ecession began in December 2007, the deepest
f the job market started spitting out jobs as fast
 5 million private-sector jobs a year, the U.S.
mployment rate until late 2017.”

e very reluctant to hire again until they see clear
 ggests we could see another so-called jobless
 ags the improvement in overall output."

				
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