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North Korea in Northeast Asia

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									Explaining North Korean
Nuclear Crisis
    Lecture Note for Pease Studies II


           October 24, 2007

            Sung Chull Kim
       Hiroshima Peace institute
Preliminary questions
   What is the nature of North Korean
    problem, that is, the nuclear weapons
    development? And how is the process
    for a solution going on?
   How has the North Korean nuclear issue
    been intermingled with the abduction
    issue?
North Korea in Northeast Asia
      North Korea Profile

   Population: 22,697,553 (July 2004 est.)
   Population growth rate: 0.98% (2004 est.)
   Life expectancy at birth: total population: 71.08 years,
    male: 68.38 years, female: 73.92 years (2004 est.)
   Natural resources: coal, lead, tungsten, zinc, graphite,
    magnesite, iron ore, copper, gold (no oil or natural gas)
   Land use: arable land 20.76%
   Food shortage: around 2million tons per year
    Nature of North Korean
    nuclear crisis and nuclear test
•   On October 9, 2006, North Korea conducted nuclear
    test.
•   The Six-Party Talks are going on to make North
    Korea to give up the nuclear weapons development
    project.
    - 6 countries: North Korea, South Korea, the United
    States, China, Japan, Russia

   Why nuclear weapons?
    - Reflection of North Korea’s perceived insecurity in
    the post-Cold War period
    (Both domestic and international)
    Background of the crisis (I):
    international level

   For North Korea, the U.S. has been the
    “key” to solve all the diplomatic problems.
         Background(I): international level (continue)
         US sanctions on North Korea
   The U.S. domestic laws and regulations has denied since
    1953
     -  (Trading with Enemy Act, Commercial Control List)
     -  (list of Terrorism-supporting countries)
     - any loans or credit facilities from international financial
        institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank
     - the status of “beneficiary developing country” under the U.S.
        Generalized System of Preference
     - approval for application to investment risk insurance programs in
        the Overseas Private Investment Corporation
     -  a grant from U.S. agricultural commodities to developing and
        least developed countries
   The U.S. influence over international financial flow
    - example: financial sanction against the North Korean accounts in
    Banco Delta Asia in Macao
Background(I): international level (continue)
Regime competition with South Korea

   Refer to the lecture in spring
    - division, 1945
    - Korean War, 1950-53
    - confrontation and competition after
    the war
    - recent development of inter-Korean
    relations, but fear of South Korean
    influence
Background(II): domestic level


   Economic crisis erupted in junction with
    the collapse of socialism in Eastern
    Europe and the former Soviet Union.
    - shortage of (1) energy, (2) foreign
    currency, (3) food

   Death of Kim Il Sung in 1994
Kim Il Sung’s death and transfer
of power to Kim Jong-il in 1994
“Arduous March”
Transitions for survival
Chronology of Nuclear Crises
   1991: South-North Basic Agreement
    1992: South-North Joint Declaration of the
    Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
    1. no nuclear weapons
    2. use of nuclear energy solely for peaceful
    purpose
    3. no nuclear reprocessing, no uranium
    enrichment
Chronology, continue
    1992: IAEA inspects nuclear facility at Yongbyon and
    concludes there are inconsistencies between North
    Korea's declaration and inspection results
   1993: IAEA request special inspection on the two
    unreported, suspect, facilities (waste storages)/
    North Korea’s rejection
    1993: North Korea’s exit of NPT and declaration of
    state of semi-war (the 1st nuclear crisis)
   1994: Former President Carter visits North Korea;
    Kim Il Sung offers to freeze North Korea's nuclear
    program in return for high-level talks between the
    U.S. and North Korea.
    1994: U.S. and North Korea conclude the Geneva
    Agreed Framework. (see next)
    (Agreed Framework, Oct. 1994)
   Freeze of nuclear facilities: NK’s freeze of graphite-
    moderated reactors and related facilities, being
    compensated by US’ arrangement of light-water reactor
    (LWR) power plants with a generating capacity of
    2,000 MW(e) by 2003

   Dismantlement: Dismantlement of the frozen
    facilities, when the LWR project is completed

   Normalization: US and NK move toward full
    normalization of political and economic relations

   In 1995, Korean Peninsula Energy Development
    Organization (KEDO) was established for the
    construction of two light-water nuclear reactors in
    North Korea.
Chronology, continue
    2000: summit between South and North Koreas (Kim Dae-jung and
    Kim Jong Il), “Joint Declaration”
    2002: summit between Japan and North Korea (Koizumi Junichiro and
    Kim Jong Il), “Pyongyang Declaration”
    2002: North Korea allegedly confessed its nuclear project based on
    highly enriched uranium (HEU) to James Kelly, special envoy from the
    United States (the 2nd nuclear crisis)
    2002: KEDO decides the stop of sending of heavy oil to North Korea.
    2002: North Korea expels IAEA inspection teams.
    2003: North Korea declares the exit from NPT.
    2005: declaration of nuclear state status
    2005: Joint Statement of the 4th Round of the Six-Party Talks (see
    next)
    2005: dissolution of KEDO
    2006: missile launches
    2006: underground nuclear test
    2007: shut down of nuclear facilities
Quest for solution: Six-Party
Talks
   Participants: North Korea, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, US
    - China’s active role for moderating especially the differences between
    North Korea and Japan

Joint Statement of the 4th Six-Party talks: 19th Sept. 2005
  - Verifiable denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, DPRK’s
   abandoning of nuclear weapons and nuclear programs; US of no
   intention of invasion, 1992 Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of
   the Korean Peninsula as the benchmark, future discussion about
   provision of light water reactor
  - abiding the Charter of UN and recognition of norms of international
   relations, normalization of DPRK-US, NK-Japan relations;
  - economic assistance to NK, energy aid by the five countries, power
   aid of 2 million kw by ROK;
  - efforts for the peace and stability in Northeast Asia, peace regime talk
   at a separate forum;
  - principle of “commitment for commitment, action for action”
Progresses and obstacles in
the de-nuclearization
   Progresses
    - shut-down of nuclear facilities in North Korea in July
    2007
    - prospective disablement of nuclear facilities and
    clarification of nuclear-related issues by the end of
    December 2007
   Obstacles
    - lack of coordination among the six countries, each
    of whom has one’s own strategy and objectives
    - the existing distrust between the U.S. and North
    Korea, on the one hand, and Japan and North Korea
Status of abduction issue
   Abduction issue in the context of
    normalization talks
   Previously (before Sept. 2005), the abduction
    issue was considered a bilateral issue.
   Now (after Sept. 2005), the abduction issue is
    linked to the multilateral context, particularly
    to the Six-Party Talks.
    Concluding remarks
   The Korean peninsular still remains “the last remaining island of
    the Cold War” because of the division between two Koreas, both
    of which maintain heavily armed military forces.

   For North Korea, the U.S still remains the key enemy, in spite of
    some progress in the U.S.-North Korea relations particularly at
    the Six-Party Talks for the denuclearization of North Korea.

   The future in the abduction issue, the most sensitive issue in
    Japan-North Korea relations, seems to be linked to the process of
    the denuclearization.

   Engagement with North Korea by neighbors, especially the U.S.
    and Japan, is essential for inducing North Korea’s cooperation.

								
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