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North Korea in Northeast Asia


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									Explaining North Korean
Nuclear Crisis
    Lecture Note for Pease Studies II

           October 24, 2007

            Sung Chull Kim
       Hiroshima Peace institute
Preliminary questions
   What is the nature of North Korean
    problem, that is, the nuclear weapons
    development? And how is the process
    for a solution going on?
   How has the North Korean nuclear issue
    been intermingled with the abduction
North Korea in Northeast Asia
      North Korea Profile

   Population: 22,697,553 (July 2004 est.)
   Population growth rate: 0.98% (2004 est.)
   Life expectancy at birth: total population: 71.08 years,
    male: 68.38 years, female: 73.92 years (2004 est.)
   Natural resources: coal, lead, tungsten, zinc, graphite,
    magnesite, iron ore, copper, gold (no oil or natural gas)
   Land use: arable land 20.76%
   Food shortage: around 2million tons per year
    Nature of North Korean
    nuclear crisis and nuclear test
•   On October 9, 2006, North Korea conducted nuclear
•   The Six-Party Talks are going on to make North
    Korea to give up the nuclear weapons development
    - 6 countries: North Korea, South Korea, the United
    States, China, Japan, Russia

   Why nuclear weapons?
    - Reflection of North Korea’s perceived insecurity in
    the post-Cold War period
    (Both domestic and international)
    Background of the crisis (I):
    international level

   For North Korea, the U.S. has been the
    “key” to solve all the diplomatic problems.
         Background(I): international level (continue)
         US sanctions on North Korea
   The U.S. domestic laws and regulations has denied since
     -  (Trading with Enemy Act, Commercial Control List)
     -  (list of Terrorism-supporting countries)
     - any loans or credit facilities from international financial
        institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank
     - the status of “beneficiary developing country” under the U.S.
        Generalized System of Preference
     - approval for application to investment risk insurance programs in
        the Overseas Private Investment Corporation
     -  a grant from U.S. agricultural commodities to developing and
        least developed countries
   The U.S. influence over international financial flow
    - example: financial sanction against the North Korean accounts in
    Banco Delta Asia in Macao
Background(I): international level (continue)
Regime competition with South Korea

   Refer to the lecture in spring
    - division, 1945
    - Korean War, 1950-53
    - confrontation and competition after
    the war
    - recent development of inter-Korean
    relations, but fear of South Korean
Background(II): domestic level

   Economic crisis erupted in junction with
    the collapse of socialism in Eastern
    Europe and the former Soviet Union.
    - shortage of (1) energy, (2) foreign
    currency, (3) food

   Death of Kim Il Sung in 1994
Kim Il Sung’s death and transfer
of power to Kim Jong-il in 1994
“Arduous March”
Transitions for survival
Chronology of Nuclear Crises
   1991: South-North Basic Agreement
    1992: South-North Joint Declaration of the
    Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
    1. no nuclear weapons
    2. use of nuclear energy solely for peaceful
    3. no nuclear reprocessing, no uranium
Chronology, continue
    1992: IAEA inspects nuclear facility at Yongbyon and
    concludes there are inconsistencies between North
    Korea's declaration and inspection results
   1993: IAEA request special inspection on the two
    unreported, suspect, facilities (waste storages)/
    North Korea’s rejection
    1993: North Korea’s exit of NPT and declaration of
    state of semi-war (the 1st nuclear crisis)
   1994: Former President Carter visits North Korea;
    Kim Il Sung offers to freeze North Korea's nuclear
    program in return for high-level talks between the
    U.S. and North Korea.
    1994: U.S. and North Korea conclude the Geneva
    Agreed Framework. (see next)
    (Agreed Framework, Oct. 1994)
   Freeze of nuclear facilities: NK’s freeze of graphite-
    moderated reactors and related facilities, being
    compensated by US’ arrangement of light-water reactor
    (LWR) power plants with a generating capacity of
    2,000 MW(e) by 2003

   Dismantlement: Dismantlement of the frozen
    facilities, when the LWR project is completed

   Normalization: US and NK move toward full
    normalization of political and economic relations

   In 1995, Korean Peninsula Energy Development
    Organization (KEDO) was established for the
    construction of two light-water nuclear reactors in
    North Korea.
Chronology, continue
    2000: summit between South and North Koreas (Kim Dae-jung and
    Kim Jong Il), “Joint Declaration”
    2002: summit between Japan and North Korea (Koizumi Junichiro and
    Kim Jong Il), “Pyongyang Declaration”
    2002: North Korea allegedly confessed its nuclear project based on
    highly enriched uranium (HEU) to James Kelly, special envoy from the
    United States (the 2nd nuclear crisis)
    2002: KEDO decides the stop of sending of heavy oil to North Korea.
    2002: North Korea expels IAEA inspection teams.
    2003: North Korea declares the exit from NPT.
    2005: declaration of nuclear state status
    2005: Joint Statement of the 4th Round of the Six-Party Talks (see
    2005: dissolution of KEDO
    2006: missile launches
    2006: underground nuclear test
    2007: shut down of nuclear facilities
Quest for solution: Six-Party
   Participants: North Korea, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, US
    - China’s active role for moderating especially the differences between
    North Korea and Japan

Joint Statement of the 4th Six-Party talks: 19th Sept. 2005
  - Verifiable denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, DPRK’s
   abandoning of nuclear weapons and nuclear programs; US of no
   intention of invasion, 1992 Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of
   the Korean Peninsula as the benchmark, future discussion about
   provision of light water reactor
  - abiding the Charter of UN and recognition of norms of international
   relations, normalization of DPRK-US, NK-Japan relations;
  - economic assistance to NK, energy aid by the five countries, power
   aid of 2 million kw by ROK;
  - efforts for the peace and stability in Northeast Asia, peace regime talk
   at a separate forum;
  - principle of “commitment for commitment, action for action”
Progresses and obstacles in
the de-nuclearization
   Progresses
    - shut-down of nuclear facilities in North Korea in July
    - prospective disablement of nuclear facilities and
    clarification of nuclear-related issues by the end of
    December 2007
   Obstacles
    - lack of coordination among the six countries, each
    of whom has one’s own strategy and objectives
    - the existing distrust between the U.S. and North
    Korea, on the one hand, and Japan and North Korea
Status of abduction issue
   Abduction issue in the context of
    normalization talks
   Previously (before Sept. 2005), the abduction
    issue was considered a bilateral issue.
   Now (after Sept. 2005), the abduction issue is
    linked to the multilateral context, particularly
    to the Six-Party Talks.
    Concluding remarks
   The Korean peninsular still remains “the last remaining island of
    the Cold War” because of the division between two Koreas, both
    of which maintain heavily armed military forces.

   For North Korea, the U.S still remains the key enemy, in spite of
    some progress in the U.S.-North Korea relations particularly at
    the Six-Party Talks for the denuclearization of North Korea.

   The future in the abduction issue, the most sensitive issue in
    Japan-North Korea relations, seems to be linked to the process of
    the denuclearization.

   Engagement with North Korea by neighbors, especially the U.S.
    and Japan, is essential for inducing North Korea’s cooperation.

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