Bahrain's economic growth is forecast to pick up slightly in 2012 following the sluggish 1.9% expansion BMI estimates took place in 2011 as the country felt the impact of the Arab Spring, despite the high oil prices that should have boosted the country's coffers.
Bahrain Shipping Report Q2 2012 Published: May 2012 No. of Pages: 119 Price: US$1175 Bahrain's economic growth is forecast to pick up slightly in 2012 following the sluggish 1.9% expansion BMI estimates took place in 2011 as the country felt the impact of the Arab Spring, despite the high oil prices that should have boosted the country's coffers. We believe that continued high oil prices, in addition to increased government spending and support from neighbor Saudi Arabia, eager to avoid any further Shi'a unrest on its doorstep, will see growth pick up this year. Risks remain, however, from any increase in domestic political disturbances once again, and from increased tensions between Iran and the West making the region a geopolitical hotspot. We currently forecast port throughput growth in Bahrain to exceed economic expansion in the coming year, though the sector would be seriously affected by any hint of further unrest. Headline Industry Data .. Growth in Khalifa bin Salman Port (KBSP) total tonnage throughput forecast at 8.2% in 2012, with average annual growth forecast at 6.9% between 2012 and 2016. .. Growth in KBSP container throughput forecast at 7.7% in 2012, with average annual growth of 4.8% over our forecast period. .. Real growth in total trade forecast at 10.0% in 2012 and to average 6.4% over the medium term. Key Industry Trends Trans-Continental, ECU Agree Bahrain Partnership Bahrain-based Trans-Continental Shipping announced in March 2012 the signing of a strategic alliance with multinational less-than-container-load shipper ECU Line. Trans-Continental's managing director Yousif Abdulla al-Rayes commented that the partnership 'will add more value to the role of Bahrain as a regional distribution centre'. GOP Announces First Construction Export from Mina Salman Port the Bahrain General Organization of Sea Ports (GOP) announced in February that Bahrain's Mina Salman Port has exported its first shipment of construction materials. The port exported 9,836 metric tonnes of coke fuel to Mina Saqer in the UAE during January 2012. Smashing Previous Records The Khalifa bin Salman Port (KBSP) has been setting new productivity records over the course of the quarter. In the last week of December 2011 the facility made 122.37 berth moves in one hour while handling the MOL Priority, a container vessel with a capacity of 6,400 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Key Risks To Outlook Should the government fail to address some of the protestors' main grievances, Bahrain's political crisis could rumble on for longer than expected, with the risk of the opposition becoming radicalized increasing by the day. It remains unclear what impact 2011's political crisis will have on the country's long-term economic outlook. Should investors begin to reassess the costs of doing business in the country, and begin relocating to Dubai or Doha, Bahrain's growth outlook would suffer accordingly. All of this could add downside risk to our port throughput forecasts for Bahrain. Other risks come from tension over Iran, not least its threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, while a longer term issue is the number of ports being developed in the Gulf region with an eye towards transshipment trade. On the upside, the redevelopment of the Mina Salman port could see throughput levels experience considerably higher growth than BMI is currently forecasting at the facility. The port began operating in its new capacity in January 2012. Bahrain Shipping Report Table of Contents Executive Summary. 5 SWOT Analysis. 7 Bahrain Shipping SWOT 7 Bahrain Political SWOT ... 7 Bahrain Economic SWOT. 8 Bahrain Business Environment SWOT... 8 Global Overview – Container Shipping... 9 Overcapacity And Declining Demand To Collide, Asia-Europe Most Exposed ... 10 Liner Strategies Indicate Carriers Preparing For The Worst... 14 What Is Wan Hai Lines Doing Right? .. 19 Asia-Europe Land bridge To Take Market Share, But Not Usurp Shipping... 22 Container Shipping Must Meet Green Challenge Now 26 Global Overview – Dry Bulk Shipping .. 32 Possibility Of Chinese Slowdown Presents Real Risk To Dry Bulk Shipping ... 33 One Vale Mega-Vessel Calls To China, Remains Unclear If Rest Will Follow 36 Dry Bulk Lines Suffering; Another Chinese Firm Withholds Charter Payments .. 41 Oversized Dry Bulk Fleet to Continue Growing. 44 Global Overview – Liquid Bulk Shipping. 47 2012 Outlook For Crude Oil Tankers Remains Poor ... 48 Frontline 2012 To Be Consolidating Force In Supertanker Sector .. 53 Industry Trends and Developments 59 Container Shipping Market Overview... 60 Industry Forecast ... 65 Khalifa Bin Salman Port... 65 Trade ... 68 Company Profiles ... 71 Maersk Line. 71 Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) ... 78 CMA CGM ... 82 COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON).. 86 Hapag-Lloyd 91 APL... 96 Evergreen Line ...102 China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) .106 Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) 110 Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container).114Dry Bulk Lines Suffering; Another Chinese Firm Withholds Charter Payments. 41
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