Exponential Smoothing by SpreadsheetZONE

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									FORECAST BY EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHIN

This forecast model is used for one step ahead forecasting. Forecast of next time unit is done according to the smoothing constant you have entered is the weight of previous forec Smoothing Constant: 0.2 MAPE MSE MAD Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 Data 200 250 175 186 225 285 305 190 210 245 185 254 135 189 240 261 275 210 165 211 202 197 192 187 183 178 173 400 163 185 Forecast 200.00 200.00 210.00 203.00 199.60 204.68 220.74 237.60 228.08 224.46 228.57 219.85 226.68 208.35 204.48 211.58 221.47 232.17 227.74 215.19 214.35 211.88 208.91 205.52 201.82 198.06 194.04 189.84 231.87 218.09 211.48 Error 0.00 -50.00 35.00 17.00 -25.40 -80.32 -84.26 47.60 18.08 -20.54 43.57 -34.15 91.68 19.35 -35.52 -49.42 -53.53 22.17 62.74 4.19 12.35 14.88 16.91 18.52 18.82 20.06 21.04 -210.16 68.87 33.09

Fore

Mean absolute percentag The mean squared error Mean absolute deviation

450
400

350 300 Unit Unit
250

200 150
100

50 0

150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 -50.00 -100.00 -150.00

-150.00

33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

-200.00 -250.00

NTIAL SMOOTHING
is done according to the previous observed data and previous forecast. The weight of previous forecast value. Forecast Evalution Mean absolute percentage error The mean squared error Mean absolute deviation 0.1853 3,209.7475 40.9739 e^2 0 2500 1225 289 645.16 6451.302 7099.074 2265.303 326.7476 421.8535 1898.235 1165.881 8405.955 374.314 1261.83 2442.118 2865.914 491.6247 3936.068 17.56005 152.5812 221.471 285.7967 343.154 354.1748 402.2282 442.871 44169.07 4742.868 1095.265

Data - Forecast Chart

Observed Data

Forecast

Time

Error In Forecast Chart

Error In Forecast

Time

e/d 0 0.2 0.2 0.091398 0.112889 0.281825 0.276249 0.250501 0.086077 0.083833 0.235507 0.134429 0.679141 0.102366 0.148009 0.18934 0.19467 0.105584 0.380231 0.01986 0.06115 0.075543 0.08805 0.099061 0.102839 0.112672 0.121645 0.525411 0.422506 0.178891 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 35 17 25.4 80.32 84.256 47.5952 18.07616 20.53907 43.56874 34.14501 91.684 19.3472 35.52224 49.41779 53.53424 22.17261 62.73809 4.190471 12.35238 14.8819 16.90552 18.52442 18.81953 20.05563 21.0445 210.1644 68.86848 33.09478 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Follow the steps to enable your Exponential Smoothing Forecast.
>> 1) Your Exponential Smoothing Forecast is ready to use. Following steps are for online use. Visit the site below: http://www.spreadsheetweb.com/getting_started.htm You will only need the username and password to create your Exponential Smoothing Forecast. 2) Visit the site below: http://trial.spreadsheetweb.com/spreadsheetweb/ Login to page with your new account information. 3) >> >> Click "Add Web Application" to upload this file. Your Exponential Smoothing Forecast will be created automatically. You can simply use the Exponential Smoothing Forecast from that link or place it on your website. Your Exponential Smoothing Forecast will look like: http://www1.spreadsheetweb.com/SpreadSheetWeb/Output.aspx?ApplicationId=f6f1582f-ecda-4188-b607-259771b7d889 In order to see more online applications created with PSW you can check the link below: http://www.spreadsheetweb.com/demos.htm

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