Sensor Data Fusion Briefing for DTRA IPR - PowerPoint

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					                                                                    AMS Conference
                                                                   18-21 January 2010
                                                                       Atlanta, GA




     Evaluation of Large Eddy Numerical Simulations (LES)
with Observations from FUsing Sensor Information from Observing
          Networks (FUSION) Field Trial 2007 (FFT-07)



                     Andrzej A. Wyszogrodzki
        Jeffrey Weil, George Bieberbach, Paul E. Bieringer

           National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO


                  Nathan Platt, and Leo H. Jones
               Institute for Defense Analysis, Alexandria, VA




               NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
         Evaluation of atmospheric and transport and                                    AMS Conference
                                                                                       18-21 January 2010
                                                                                           Atlanta, GA

            dispersion (T&D) model performance
      Virtual THreat Response Emulation and Analysis Testbed (VTHREAT)
High fidelity models to create realistic virtual environment and synthetic observations
                    Generation of                           Simulated        Applications
                Synthetic Environment                  Sensor Measurements    That Utilize
 Atmospheric                                                                 Observations
   Models
(EULAG/WRF)
                                                                             Models and
                                                                              Analysis
 Transport and
                                                                              Systems
  Dispersion
    Models
(EULAG/LPDM
  /SCIPUFF)
                EULAG – multiscale geophysical fluid flow model
           nonhydrostatic, anelastic approximation, LES, passive scalar T&D

                 Evaluate system ability to simulate physically realistic
      CURRENT
       TASKS




                 atmospheric environment and T&D in extreme conditions
                    Test accuracy of variable in time mean conditions
                   turbulent fluctuations, and contaminant concentrations

                         NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
                                                                                          AMS Conference

             Fusion Field Trials 2007 (FFT07)                                            18-21 January 2010
                                                                                             Atlanta, GA




Continuous propylene release
                                          FFT07 at Dugway Prowing Ground (UT)




 PRESELECTED TRIALS:

 TRIAL 16 – plume/daytime
 TRIAL 54 – plume/daytime                                                Locations of
 TRIAL 30 – plume/nighttime                                              Digipids (blue) and
 TRIAL 36 – puffs/daytime                                                Uvics (yellow)
 TRIAL 71 – puffs/nighttime

                     NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
                             EULAG initialization and BC for Trail 54                                       AMS Conference
                                                                                                           18-21 January 2010
                                                                                                               Atlanta, GA

                         morning transitional effects (8:00 – 8:45 Local Daylight Saving Time)

                                                 Potential temperature profile:




                                                                                                               Thermal conditions
                                                 - SLC (or LKN) profile at 12 UTC
                                                 - θ=303.4 K at surface,
   Surface heat fluxes:                          - θ gradient: 20 K/km below 400m,
   - turbulence tower data                       - θ gradient: 1.5 K/km above 400m
   - SAMS measurements of incoming solar radiation:
        HF=Cf*Sol, where the coefficient Cf=0.3-0.65
        determined from the local PBL height model.



                                                                                                       •   WIND
                                                                                                           DIR
                          Variable in time wind:       •     4-32m – averaged 3 towers
Composite wind




                 •       2m - domain averaged 40 PWIDS
  conditions




                         - wind speed 3 m/s,           •     32-150m - 15 minute
                         - wind direction ~135-165 deg       averaged Sodar data
                                                       •     14:15 and 14:45 UTC
                     •    WIND
                          DIRECTION                      •   above 150m –
                                                             interpolation to SLC/LKN
                                                             stations
                                       NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program   •   WIND
                                                                                               SPEED
                                             Nudging – key component to capture near                                  AMS Conference
                                                                                                                     18-21 January 2010
                                                                                                                         Atlanta, GA

                                                   surface transitional effects
                                     Parameters used to estimate                              Domain size 1.6 x 2.4 x 0.5 km
                                     nudging time scale:
                                                                                              Periodic BC
                            w*= 0.7-1 m/s (Hflux=0.07-1.3 Km/s)                               Homogeneous surface
                            Zn=50m – max wind variability below Zn                            No information about thermal
                                                                                                 structure of BL at DPG site
Sodar data between 14:15-14:45 UTC




                                     200




                                                                                                                               Time evolution of model winds
                                                                Nudging time scale
                                                                Tn=Zn/w* =50-70 sec
                                     150




                                     100




                                     50




                                     WIND SPEED WIND DIR
                                                      NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
                           Fusion Field Trials 2007 (FFT07)                                         AMS Conference
                                                                                                   18-21 January 2010
                                                                                                       Atlanta, GA

                                       Trial 54
                        FFT07: 40 PWIDS [u, v, w measurements at 10 seconds]

                                                      FFT07 at Dugway Prowing Ground (UT)




PWIDS = Portable Weather Information Display System                           Locations of Pwids


       EULAG: ensemble of 20 grids (40 sensor locations per grid, 800 sensors total)
       in the same configuration as FFT07 PWIDS, but at different physical locations
                                NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
                                    Evaluation of atmospheric model performance                                      AMS Conference
                                                                                                                    18-21 January 2010
                                                                                                                        Atlanta, GA

                                      wind mean components and fluctuations
                                             mean wind: required for capture plume meandering
                                              wind fluctuations: required for plume dispersion
                                        EULAG realizations (red)                         FFT07 realizations (red)
                                        ensemble averaged (blue)                         sensor averaged (black)
                                      FFT07 sensor averaged (black)
                         U (m/s)
EULAG: 10m resolution

                        DIR (deg)
                         T (C)




                                                Time (UTC)                                      Time (UTC)

                                                     How much the observed variability is
                                                 influenced by the inhomogeneity of the SL?

                                                 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
     Evaluation of atmospheric model performance                                 AMS Conference
                                                                                18-21 January 2010
                                                                                    Atlanta, GA

         possible physical sources of error in observations

      Effects not accounted in current idealistic FFT07 simulations




                        Mountain
                        range                                   washes
                        ~2km




Larger scale effects:                        Surface heterogeneity:
– Thermal mountain/valley flow               – Roughness variability due to vegetation
   structure (e.g. drainage flows)           – Small scale topographical features
– Mesoscale winds interacting                   (e.g. gentle terrain slopes, dry forks)
   with nearby mountains

                    NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
      Evaluation of atmospheric model performance                               AMS Conference
                                                                               18-21 January 2010
                                                                                   Atlanta, GA

        possible physical sources of error in observations

      Effects not accounted in current idealistic FFT07 simulations




                      Mountain
                      range                                   washes
                      ~2km




                                         To compare fluctuations (turbulence) from
REAL SURFACE: inhomogeneous              model and field sensors we must account
MODEL SURFACE: homogeneous               for surface inhomogeneity and their effects
                                         on the sensor measurements
           Bias due to inhomogeneity = <obs(x,t)>time - <obs(x,t)>x

                  NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
            Atmospheric conditions evaluation                                AMS Conference
                                                                            18-21 January 2010
                                                                                Atlanta, GA


V (m/s)    observational bias at different PWID locations




                                         V (m/s)
                                                                        Red = model
                                                                        Blue = biased
                                                                        observations
 V (m/s)




                                         V (m/s)




                  NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
             u (m/s)                                          u (m/s)
           Atmospheric conditions evaluation                                 AMS Conference
                                                                            18-21 January 2010
                                                                                Atlanta, GA

             removing bias from the observations




                                        V (m/s)
V (m/s)




                                                                        Red = model
                                                                      Black = unbiased
                                                                        observations
 V (m/s)




                                       V (m/s)




                NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
            u (m/s)                                         u (m/s)
    Atmospheric conditions evaluation                        AMS Conference
                                                            18-21 January 2010
                                                                Atlanta, GA

observational bias at all PWID locations and times



      Red = model
      Blue = biased
      observations




        NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
Atmospheric conditions evaluation                        AMS Conference
                                                        18-21 January 2010
                                                            Atlanta, GA

  removing bias from All observations



  Red = model
Black = unbiased
  observations




    NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
                                                                                         AMS Conference

                             T&D model evaluation                                       18-21 January 2010
                                                                                            Atlanta, GA




Trial 54, Continuous Release,                             EULAG realization (red)
                                                      FFT07 sensor measurement (blue)
1 Source (Propylene)


EULAG start time at
13:35 UTC (∆= 10m, dt=0.25 sec)
13:55 UTC (∆= 5 m, dt=0.2 sec)
14:05 UTC (∆=2.5 m, dt=0.125 sec)

- Length of the simulation 30-60 min




Ensemble of 20 grids
at different spatial locations
Shifted in X and Y directions


                                             Point to point comparison between
                                             model and field sensor locations

                         NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
                          T&D model evaluation for Trail 54,                                AMS Conference
                                                                                           18-21 January 2010
                                                                                               Atlanta, GA

                                near source time series (Digipid 78)
 ~150m from source shown by arrow
                                                                                                   10m




                                                                                                   5m




Ratio: cc_fft07 / cc_model
cc<1s>    – peak, concentration 1s averaged
<cc>15min – 15 minute time integral                                                              2.5m
          cc<1s> cc<10s> cc<60s> <cc>15min
 D10m     5.93   4.02    1.79    5.22
 D 5m     2.32   1.57    0.70    1.98
 D2.5m    0.65   0.44    0.19    0.63
                                                                              Tume [UTC]

                                 NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
                         T&D model evaluation for Trail 54,                                AMS Conference
                                                                                          18-21 January 2010
                                                                                              Atlanta, GA

                         time series at larger distance (Digipid 26)
 ~400m from source shown by arrow
                                                                                                  10m




                                                                                                  5m




Ratio: cc_fft07 / cc_model
cc<1s>    – peak, concentration 1s averaged
<cc>15min – 15 minute time integral                                                             2.5m
          cc<1s> cc<10s> cc<60s> <cc>15min

  D10m 3.27      3.00    2.46    9.77
  D 5m 1.44      1.32    1.08    4.97
  D2.5m 0.46     0.42    0.34    1.29
                                                                             Tume [UTC]

                                NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
                                                                                                                      AMS Conference

                                         T&D model evaluation                                                        18-21 January 2010
                                                                                                                         Atlanta, GA




                       SCIPUFF                                                         LES – 10m




                                                              concentrations [ppm]
concentrations [ppm]




                                                                    EULAG
     SCIPUFF




                       LES – 5m                                                        LES – 2.5m




                                                                concentrations [ppm]
concentrations [ppm]




                                                                      EULAG
      EULAG




                         FFT07 concentrations [ppm]                                     FFT07 concentrations [ppm]
                                     NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program
                       Progress summary                                                  AMS Conference
                                                                                        18-21 January 2010
                                                                                            Atlanta, GA

                      ongoing & future work
LES simulations with nudging are able to properly simulate mean winds and
turbulent fluctuations during morning transition in BL

Model concentrations are strongly dependent on grid resolution

 At 5m resolution EULAG concentrations agree perfectly with appropriate
SCIPUFF run
 At 2.5 m resolution model results are even overpredicting FFT07 concentrations
at some locations (possible explanation: single release during Trial54 is compared to
ensemble of 20 independent model realizations).


Ongoing work: compare model results with Surface Layer Similarity theory (SLS)

In near future:

 Analyze different trials including fully convective and stable BL

 Add support to missing data, unknown local valley and mesoscale tendencies
with the WRF mesoscale forecast run over the DPG during FFT07 period

 Updates to model SL/PBL parameterization (e.g. different roughness for
momentum and heat, dynamic SGS models, etc).

                  NCAR/RAL - National Security Applications Program

				
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