Docstoc

PowerPoint Presentation U S Census Bureau (PowerPoint)

Document Sample
PowerPoint Presentation U S Census Bureau (PowerPoint) Powered By Docstoc
					Voting Behavior of
Naturalized Citizens:
1996-2006
Sarah R. Crissey
Thom File
U.S. Census Bureau
Housing and Household Economic Statistics Division


Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America
New Orleans, LA
April 16-19, 2008
• 2006: 36.5 million foreign born in
  U.S., 14.4 million naturalized
• Nativity effect = naturalized less likely
  to vote than native citizens
• Baseline estimates from 1996 Current
  Population Survey (CPS) from Bass
  and Casper (2002).
• Since 1996, more than 5 million new
  naturalized citizens. Total population
  has increased by roughly 21 million.
• Political debate on immigration and
  naturalization policy has grown heated
• Expands Bass and Casper’s 1996
  analyses from 1998-2006.

  Research Questions and
       Hypotheses
• RQ 1. Net of other predictors of
  voting behavior, are naturalized
  citizens less likely than native
  citizens to register and to vote in
  elections over the past decade?
  – Hypothesis: As found in 1996,
    nativity effect will exist from 1998-
    2006.
• RQ 2: Has the magnitude of the
  nativity effect changed across the last
  decade?
  – Hypothesis: With increasing and
    diversifying naturalized citizen population,
    nativity effect will decrease over time.


• RQ 3: Does nativity status have the
  same effect across election type?
  – Hypothesis: Nativity effect will be
    stronger in congressional elections since
    disengaged populations register and vote
    less frequently.
    DATA AND METHODS
• Data
  – CPS bi-annual November Voting
    Supplement 1996-2006
  – Representative of the U.S. non-
    institutionalized civilian population
  – Analytic sample sizes between about
    77,000 and 89,000 for each year.
• Dependent variables
  – Two dichotomous voting behaviors for
    November election of survey year:
     1. Registered to vote
     2. Voted


• Independent variables
  – Nativity status
    • 1=naturalized, 0=native

  – Demographic control variables
• Analytical Plan
  – Logistic Regression
    • Weighted models and standard errors
      adjusted for design effects

  – RQ 1: Estimate effect of nativity status
    for each survey year

  – RQ 2: Compare nativity coefficients
    across election years within election
    types

  – RQ 3: Compare nativity coefficients
    across election type with proximate years
Figure 1: Odds Ratios from Logistic Regression Predicting
Voter Registration: 2006
                        0   0.5                 1                           1.5         2       2.5       3

         Native born
         Naturalized
                 Male
                              *
              Female
                 Age
                                                                *
         White, non-
                                                    *
Black, non-Hispanic
            Hispanic
                                                                            *
Other, non-Hispanic
                                        *
     Never married
                                   *
              Married
    Wid/divorce/sep
                                                                    *
 High school or less
                                        *
 Some college plus
           Employed
                                                                                                      *
      Not employed
                                                                        *
   Not in labor force
        Professional                                                            *
   Non-professional
              Income                                    *
    Missing income
                Owns
                                            *
                Rents                                                   *
 Residence <1 year
         1 to 4 years
    5 or more years
                                                                                    *
                South
                                                                                            *
           Northeast                        *
             Midwest                                        *
                West                    *

* = Coefficient is statistically significant at the p < .10 level
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November Voting Supplement: 2006
Figure 2: Odds Ratios from Logistic Regression Predicting
Voting: 2006
                        0   0.5                   1                       1.5       2       2.5   3

         Native born
         Naturalized
                 Male             *
              Female
                 Age                                  *
         White, non-
Black, non-Hispanic                                                         *
            Hispanic
Other, non-Hispanic                           *
     Never married                    *
              Married
    Wid/divorce/sep
                                                          *
 High school or less
                                          *
 Some college plus
           Employed
                                                                                            *
      Not employed
                                                              *
   Not in labor force
        Professional
   Non-professional
                                                                  *
              Income                                  *
    Missing income
                Owns
                                                  *
                Rents
                                                                      *
 Residence <1 year
         1 to 4 years
    5 or more years
                                                                                *
                South
                                                                                        *
           Northeast                                  *
             Midwest                                                        *
                West                                                  *
* = Coefficient is statistically significant at the p < .10 level
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November Voting Supplement: 2006
Table 1: Total Voting-Age Citizen Population Size, by Nativity
Status and Year: 1996-2006
                         Total Citizens,
     Year                Age 18+            Native       Naturalized
                1996                179,936      171,713         8,223
                                      100.0         95.4            4.6
                1998                183,451      173,862         9,588
                                      100.0         94.8            5.2
                2000                186,366      175,679       10,687
                                      100.0         94.3            5.7
                2002                192,656      180,473       12,183
                                      100.0         93.7            6.3
                2004                197,005      183,880       13,125
                                      100.0         93.3            6.7
                2006                201,073      187,132       13,941
                                      100.0         93.1            6.9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November Voting Supplements: 1996-2006
Numbers in thousands
Figure 3: Percentage of Eligible Voting Population Who
Registered to Vote, by Nativity Status and Year: 1996-2006
         0      10        20        30        40       50            60             70            80


                                                                                          71.3
  1996
                                                                            63.0


                                                                                   67.8
  1998
                                                              54.8


                                                                                      70.2
  2000
                                                                    58.1
                                                                                                       Native

                                                                                   67.3
                                                                                                       Naturalized
  2002
                                                             54.4


                                                                                           72.9
  2004
                                                                          61.2


                                                                                    68.6
  2006
                                                             54.3


Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November Voting Supplements: 1996-2006
Figure 4: Percentage of Eligible Voting Population Who Voted,
by Nativity Status and Year: 1996-2006
        0      10        20        30        40        50             60             70   80


                                                                      58.6
 1996
                                                              52.7


                                                    45.7
 1998
                                             38.0


                                                                       60.0
 2000
                                                            50.6
                                                                                               Native
                                                     46.8                                      Naturalized
 2002
                                           36.2


                                                                              64.5
 2004
                                                               53.7


                                                       48.6
 2006
                                           36.6


Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November Voting Supplements: 1996-2006
               RESULTS
• Descriptive Findings
  – Table 1: U.S. Citizens 18+ population
    grew from about 180 to 201 million
    between 1996-2006. Naturalized grew
    from 8 to 14 million
  – Figure 3: In each year, percentage of
    native citizens who registered to vote
    was statistically higher than naturalized
  – Figure 4: In each year, percentage of
    native citizens who voted was statistically
    higher than naturalized
Figure 5: Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions Predicting
Voter Registration for Naturalized Citizens Versus Native
Citizens: 1996-2006
            1996            1998            2000             2002            2004            2006
 1.00



 0.90



 0.80



 0.70
            0.64


 0.60        *
                                             0.56                             0.56
                             0.53
                                             *               0.50             *
 0.50                        *                                                                0.48
                                                              *                               *
 0.40
                                                       = Coefficient is statistically significant at the
                                                   * November Voting Supplements: 1996-2006 p < .10 level
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey,
Figure 6: Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions Predicting
Voting for Naturalized Citizens versus Native Citizens: 1996-
2006
            1996            1998            2000                  2002                2004                2006
 1.00



 0.90



 0.80
            0.74
                                             0.71
 0.70        *               0.69
                                              *                                        0.66
                             *                                     0.62
                                                                                       *
 0.60                                                                                                      0.58
                                                                    *
                                                                                                            *
 0.50



 0.40
                                                        = Coefficient is statistically significant at the p < .10 level
                                                    *
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November Voting Supplements: 1996-2006
              RESULTS
• Multivariate Findings – RQ 1
  – Figure 5: Registration in Individual
    Years
    • In each year, naturalized citizens are
      statistically less likely than native citizens
      to register
    • In 1996, the odds of registering were about
      35% lower for naturalized than native
      citizens
    • In 2006, the odds of registering were about
      50% lower for naturalized than native
      citizens
– Figure 6: Voting in Individual Years
  • Naturalized citizens statistically less likely
    than native citizens to vote each year
  • In 1996, the odds of voting were about
    25% lower for naturalized than native
    citizens
  • In 2006, the odds of voting were about
    40% lower for naturalized than native
    citizens
Figure 7: Comparison of Ratios from Logistic Regressions
Predicting Voting Behavior for Naturalized Citizens versus
Native Citizens: Presidential Election Years 1996-2004
              Voter Registration Models                                       Voting Models
 1.00



 0.90



 0.80



 0.70
                   *                                                  0.74
                                                                                     0.71

                                                                                                    0.66
           0.64
 0.60

                           0.56           0.56                                        *
 0.50


                            *
 0.40
           1996           2000            2004                        1996           2000           2004
                                                                   are statistically different at the p
                              * = Logistic regression coefficients Voting Supplements: 1996-2006 < .10 level
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November
Figure 8: Comparison of Ratios from Logistic Regressions
Predicting Voting Behavior for Naturalized Citizens versus
Native Citizens: Congressional Election Years 1998-2006
               Voter Registration Models                                       Voting Models
 1.00



 0.90



 0.80



 0.70
                                                                      0.69

 0.60                                                                                0.62
                                                                                                    0.58

 0.50       0.53
                           0.50
                                           0.48                                         *
 0.40
           1998           2002             2006                       1998           2002          2006

                                                                   are statistically different at the p
                              * = Logistic regression coefficients Voting Supplements: 1996-2006 < .10 level
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November
              RESULTS
• Multivariate Findings – RQ 2
  – Figure 7: Differences over Time
    (Presidential Election Years)
    • Odds ratio for nativity in registration
      models was statistically different between
      1996 and both 2000 and 2004 – effect
      was weakest in 1996.
    • Odds ratio for nativity in voting models
      was statistically different from 1996-2004
      – effect is weaker in 1996
– Figure 8: Differences over Time
  (Congressional Election Years)
  • No statistically significant differences
    across models predicting registration
  • Odds ratio for nativity in voting models
    statistically different between 1998-
    2006—effect is weaker in 1998
Figure 9: Comparison of Odds Ratios from Logistic Regressions
Predicting Voter Registration for Naturalized Versus Native
Citizens, by Type of Election: Proximate Years 1996-2006
          1996              1998              2000              2002             2004              2006
1.00



0.90


                     *                                                                      *
0.80



0.70


           0.64
0.60

                                               0.56                               0.56

0.50                         0.53
                                                                0.50
                                                                                                    0.48


0.40
                                                                   are statistically different at the p
                              * = Logistic regression coefficients Voting Supplements: 1996-2006 < .10 level
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November
Figure 10: Comparison of Odds Ratios from Logistic
Regressions Predicting Voting for Naturalized Versus Native
Citizens, by Type of Election: Proximate Years 1996-2006
           1996              1998             2000              2002              2004             2006
1.00



0.90



0.80
                                                        *                                   *

            0.74
0.70
                                               0.71
                             0.69
                                                                                  0.66
0.60                                                             0.62

                                                                                                    0.58

0.50



0.40
                                                                   are statistically different at the p
                              * = Logistic regression coefficients Voting Supplements: 1996-2006 < .10 level
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November
               RESULTS
• Multivariate Findings – RQ 3
  – Figure 9: Registration by Election
    Type
     • Comparisons were statistically different
       in two comparisons:
        – 1996-1998
        – 2004-2006

     • In these two cases, the effect was
       stronger in congressional versus
       presidential elections
– Figure 10: Voting by Type
  • Comparisons were statistically significant
    in two cases:
     – 2000-2002
     – 2004-2006

  • In these two cases, the effect was
    stronger in congressional versus
    presidential elections
• RQ 1: Effect of Nativity
  – Support for hypothesis that naturalized
    citizens are less likely than native citizens
    to register and vote in elections in the
    past decade.

  – In 2006, naturalized citizens were 52%
    less likely to register and 42% less likely
    to vote compared to native citizens.

  – Provides further support for literature
    documenting lower electoral participation
    by naturalized citizens.
• RQ 2: Nativity Effect Over Time
  – Mixed evidence for hypothesis that effect
    has changed over time.
  – In presidential years, effect increased
    between earliest and latest year.
  – In congressional years, no time trend in
    registration but nativity effect was larger
    in latest year compared to earliest year
    for voting.
  – Participation by naturalized citizens is not
    increasing over time, and some evidence
    it is decreasing compared to native
    citizens.
• RQ 3: Nativity Effect by Election Type
  – Mixed evidence for hypothesis that effect
    varies by type.

  – For each statistically different
    comparison, the effect was stronger in
    congressional versus presidential
    elections.

  – Potentially, naturalized citizens are less
    likely to participate in congressional
    elections.
         CONCLUSIONS
• Nativity continues to be an important
  social predictor of voting behavior
  – Compared to native citizens, naturalized
    citizens are less likely to take advantage
    of their right to participate in the
    democratic process.
  – Effect of nativity has not decreased in
    recent years
  – Effect of nativity potentially stronger in
    congressional elections

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:11
posted:5/6/2012
language:English
pages:29