Morning Meeting Wrap

					Research +353 1 6419221                     Equity Sales +353 1 6670222                            Bloomberg GDSE<GO>




Morning Meeting Wrap                                                                                                26 April 2012



Today’s Newsflow                                                                           Upcoming Events
[Select headline to navigate to article]                                                       Company News

CRH; Pockets of strength in Europe                                        26-Apr       Billerud AB; Results - Q1 2012
                                                                                       Cemex; Results - Q1 2012
                                                                                       Howden Joinery; IMS - Q1 2012
                                                                                       Vulcan Materials; Results - Q1 2012
US Construction; Strong top-line progression in the US                    27-Apr       Dragon Oil; $0.11 Div. Payment (Ex 28/03)
                                                                                       Finnair Oyj; Results - Q1 2012
                                                                                       International Paper; Results - Q1 2012
                                                                                       Total Produce; Results - Q1 2012
Economic View; Credit supply and demand still falling in Ireland
                                                                          30-Apr       FBD Holdings; AGM; IMS - H1 2012
                                                                                       Heritage Oil PLC; Results - FY 2011
                                                                          01-May       SIG; Investor Day
                            th
Petroceltic; July 24 deadline set for Algerian approval                   02-May       Home Retail Group PLC; Results - FY 2012
                                                                                       Kerry Group; IMS - H1 2012
                                                                                       Playtech; Results - Q1 2012
                                                                                       William Hill; Ex-Div; £0.067 (N) - Pay Date 08/06
Gaming; Probability reports strong Q4 growth in mobile gaming
                                                                          03-May       Aer Lingus; IMS - Q1 2012
                                                                                       Deutsche Lufthansa; Results - Q1 2012
                                                                                       HeidelbergCement; Results - Q1 2012
UK merchants; A solid start to the year for Howden Joinery                             Mondi PLC; IMS - Q1 2012
                                                                                       SAS; Results - Q1 2012
                                                                                       St Gobain; Results - Q1 2012 sales
Paper & Packaging; Billerud Q112 – Margin squeeze highlights need
for kraftliner price increase
                                                                                               Economic News

Banks; Internal bad bank to be created at ptsb                            Ireland
                                                                          26-Apr       Property Prices - March (YoY)
                                                                          27-Apr       Retail Sales Volume - March (YoY)
                                                                          01-May       Live Register Monthly Change - April
Banks; Insolvency legislation to be delayed until June
                                                                          United Kingdom
                                                                          26-Apr      Nat'wide Hse prices nsa - April (YoY)
Origin Enterprises; Strong Q1 from Bayer helped by CropScience                        BBA Loans for Hse Purchase - March
                                                                          27-Apr      GfK Cons. Conf. Survey - April
                                                                          01-May      Halifax Hse Prices - April (3Mths / Year)
Kerry Group; Q1 sales at Unilever driven by pricing                                   PMI Manufacturing - April
                                                                          02-May      Mortgage Approvals - March
                                                                          03-May      PMI Services - April
FBD Holdings; Aon Insurance re-launches Insure.ie brand
                                                                          United States
                                                                          27-Apr      GDP - Q1 (QoQ, Annualised)
Airlines; Lufthansa – CFO steps down                                                  U. of Michigan Conf. - April F
                                                                          30-Apr      Chicago Purchasing Manager - April
                                                                          01-May      ISM Manufacturing - April
                                                                          03-May      ISM Non-Manf. Composite
Abbey; Taylor Wimpey trading at upper end of expectations
                                                                          Europe
                                                                          30-Apr       Euro-Zone CPI Estimate - April (YoY)
                                                                          02-May       Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate - March
                                                                                       PMI Manufacturing - April F
                                                                          03-May       ECB Announces Interest Rates


Goodbody Stockbrokers is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Please see the end of this report for                Equity Research
analyst certifications and other important disclosures
        GOODBODY                                                                                 MORNING MEETING WRAP

CRH; Pockets of strength in Europe
Geberit has released another strong set of results and has reiterated its guidance for the FY.      Recommendation: Reduce
First quarter sales increased by 1% to CHF569m (2% ahead of Bloomberg consensus) and                    Closing Price: €15.13
EBITDA of CHF149.9m (-5% yoy) was 4% ahead of consensus. On a lfl basis sales were up
6.6%, continuing the momentum seen in the fourth quarter of 6.5%. Somewhat surprising is                        Robert Eason
the strength of Europe (+7%) compared to the US (+3%). Management has reiterated in the                       +353-1-641 9271
outlook that some strength in Europe residential will partially offset weakness in non-          robert.v.eason@goodbody.ie
residential, while residential markets in the US will recover slowly.

Praktiker (the German based DIY retailer) has reported a 3.8% lfl increase in its German DIY
sales reflecting self-help initiatives and continued growth in the underlying market. This was
offset by weakness in its International businesses, particularly in Greece, Turkey and
Romania.

The above results show that there are pockets of strength in Europe. However, the one
area of concern we have for CRH is its exposure to the Netherlands (circa 9% of group
profits).




Home…


US Construction; Strong top-line progression in the US
Yesterday, Caterpillar reported results that were ahead of consensus and lifted FY guidance,                    Robert Eason
while Owens Corning was behind expectations. The latter was driven by costs and a relatively                  +353-1-641 9271
weak outturn for the composites division. Indeed, the building materials division saw good       robert.v.eason@goodbody.ie
momentum in the quarter with roofing +20% and insulation +14%. This compares to +13% and
                                                                                                                 David O’Brien
+9% in Q4, respectively.                                                                                       +353-1-641 9230
                                                                                                 david.a.o’brien@goodbody.ie
Of note in the Caterpillar release was the increase in its forecast for US housing starts from
700k to 800k implying yoy growth of circa 30%. However, management on the conference call
did allude to the fact that a long-term US highways bill was probably more likely after the
upcoming election, a view we would share. It is of note that yesterday the House named its
negotiators for the Conference Committee on the highways bill and the process is expected to
kick off in the middle of May.

As CRH has one of the largest exposures to the US amongst the European building
materials companies, the above trends are encouraging for top-line progression, with
the exception of highways, which is already factored into forecasts. However, one point
of note from the Owens Corning conference call was management’s comments on the
challenge of passing on high bitumen prices in its roofing division, which is a potential
headwind for CRH’s asphalt paving business.




Home…



2                                                                                                          26 April 2012
         GOODBODY                                                                                                                                             MORNING MEETING WRAP

Economic View; Credit supply and demand still falling in Ireland
Despite apparent progress in restructuring and recapitalising the Irish banking system,                                                                                  Dermot O’Leary
tightening credit standards re-emerged once again in the latest Bank Lending Survey from the                                                                             +353-1-641 9167
Central Bank. For the first time since April 2010, credit standards for enterprises and                                                                    dermot.c.oleary@goodbody.ie
households tightened in the latest survey. A worsening perception of risk was the main
contributor to this credit tightening for businesses and households.

Credit contraction cannot be fully attributed to supply factors. The latest survey shows that
demand for business loans fell for the fourth consecutive quarter while demand for mortgages
fell for the third consecutive quarter. What are the reasons for this continued fall in demand?
For businesses, there are a whole host of reasons including reduced fixed investment,
inventory and working capital needs and lower M&A activity. The only reason cited for
increased demand was for debt restructuring. This ties in with the fact that the majority of
“new” lending by the pillar banks was for this type of lending in 2011.

For households, lower consumer confidence was cited as the major reason for the fall in credit
demand. Interestingly, for the first time since the housing crash began (January 2007), housing
market prospects were not cited as a contributor to the decline in demand for mortgages. This
is very tentative evidence that confidence in the housing market is improving after a record
decline in prices. It is concerning to us that despite signs that the pillar banks are more active
in the mortgage market, standards such as LTV and maturity continued to tighten over recent
months.

It is very difficult to disentangle reasons for the continued low levels of gross lending,
but there are undoubtedly both supply and demand factors at play. We tend to think that
the level of demand is dependent on the terms and conditions. A loosening of credit
standards (or at least a stalling of tightening credit standards) would certainly help.
                                                                                                     Dermot O’ Lear y + 353-1- 641 9167 d er mot.c.oleary@g oodbod y.ie




Home…




3                                                                                                                                                                         26 April 2012
         GOODBODY                                                                                  MORNING MEETING WRAP

Petroceltic; July 24th deadline set for Algerian approval
As expected, the focus of attention in Petroceltic’s FY11 results statement this morning is less           Recommendation: Buy
on operational detail and more on development progress. Formal approval of the Ain Tsila                     Closing Price: £0.08
development plan in Algeria has yet to be granted. The detail in the statement and an agreed
timeline for approval and declaration of commerciality (July 24th) points to tangible progress                    Gerry Hennigan
however. Agreed proposals suggest a gross recoverable resource of 2.2 TCF (GBS 2.2 TCF)                           +353-1-641 9274
and 180 mmbo of condensate (GBS 76 mmbo). Plateau production is anticipated to be in the           gerry.f.hennigan@goodbody.ie
range of 350 – 400 mmscfd (GBS 400 mmscfd) sustained over a 13 – 15 year period (GBS 14
years). While broadly in line with our production profile, we would stress that our development
NAV for Algeria is risked at 50%, which at this stage in the proceedings would appear overly
conservative. Commentary also points to ongoing negotiations with regard to the farm-down of
a further 18.4% stake to an operator, news on which may be forthcoming by Q4.

 Elsewhere plans are in place to drill the Rovasenda prospect onshore Italy (renamed
Carpignano Sesia) by year-end. Commentary also suggests a degree of confidence that the
current Government may ease offshore drilling restrictions, which, if implemented, would
enable Petroceltic to drill the offshore Elsa prospect. In Kurdistan, seismic has commenced
and is due to complete by year-end post which the intention is to drill prospects early in 2013.
In the absence of guidance we have yet to attribute value to the Kurdish assets in our total
risked NAV of 13.9p

In terms of the results, the net loss for the year amounted to $8.2m (37c per share) compared
to our expectation of a loss of $7.7m (35c a share). Net debt at the end of December stood at
$15m directly in line with our expectation ($15.3m). The subsequent cash injection from Enel
($101m) in February has since eliminated any debt, however, reflected in a net cash position
as of March of $64m and leaves Petroceltic fully funded beyond the current year.

On balance, while much of the above is in line with our expectations clear evidence of
progress in Algeria and potential exploration markers as we exit the year, notably in
Kurdistan, provide the backdrop for both newsflow and catalysts as we progress
through the year.

Home…




4                                                                                                            26 April 2012
         GOODBODY                                                                                 MORNING MEETING WRAP

Gaming; Probability reports strong Q4 growth in mobile gaming
In its Q4 statement this morning to the 31st March, Probability, a B2C and B2B mobile gaming                      Gavin Kelleher
operator, reported NGR growth of +30% to £2.1m. Its B2B NGR was up +246% in the quarter.                        +353-1-641 0423
                                                                                                  gavin.d.kelleher@goodbody.ie
For the full year, NGR was +35% higher and in line with management expectations. 76% of all
players during the quarter were using smartphones or tablets up from 30% in Q4 last year.                         Rachael Cairns
B2C revenues continued to benefit from television marketing campaigns.                                           +353-1-641 9162
                                                                                                  rachael.b.cairns@goodbody.ie
The company highlights that its games were made available to William Hill during the quarter
and that it has signed contracts with major companies including Ladbrokes. It notes that its
services with Paddy Power continue to perform strongly.

While only a relatively small player, the growth rates seen from Probability highlights
the strong growth currently in the mobile gaming (excludes betting) market. We believe
that mobile gaming is likely to become a major growth driver in online gaming over the
next number of years.




Home…


UK merchants; A solid start to the year for Howden Joinery
Howden Joinery has reported that sales have increased by 5.9% in the first 16 weeks of the                        Robert Eason
year (4.0% lfl). This is up from 1.6% for the first eight weeks, implying growth of 9.4% in the                 +353-1-641 9271
last eight weeks. While the figures are helped by pricing (increases implemented in Feb-12         robert.v.eason@goodbody.ie
and Jun-11) and the timing of holidays, management notes that it is pleased with the
                                                                                                                   David O’Brien
performance. However, it has reiterated its caution on the outlook.                                              +353-1-641 9230
                                                                                                   david.a.o’brien@goodbody.ie
Overall, this is a solid start to the year for Howden Joinery, which appears to be slightly
ahead of consensus (looking for FY sales growth of circa 3%). This supports our view
that market conditions are stable for the UK merchants and we are expecting all
companies to report solid lfl progress in the upcoming trading updates.




Home…



5                                                                                                            26 April 2012
         GOODBODY                                                                                    MORNING MEETING WRAP

Paper & Packaging; Billerud Q112 – Margin squeeze highlights need for kraftliner price increase
Billerud has reported Q112 EBITDA of SEK292m which was 3% ahead of consensus                                         Robert Eason
forecasts. The division of most relevance to our coverage, Packaging Boards (No.12 player in                       +353-1-641 9271
kraftliner market), reported a 9% decline in revenue. The division’s EBITDA margin has been           robert.v.eason@goodbody.ie
squeezed by 70bps from Q411 and 370bps yoy due to lower volumes (-6%) and prices.
                                                                                                                     David O’Brien
However, management notes that the order situation has improved sequentially through the                           +353-1-641 9230
quarter and that there is improved demand coming into Q212. Pricing pressures experienced            david.a.o’brien@goodbody.ie
during Q411 reduced into Q112 and no further cuts were implemented.

These comments tie in with those of Rock Tenn in its fiscal Q212 results released after the
market close last night. Management noted that containerboard export demand and prices
were a headwind during the period but that both were now improving.

It is encouraging to hear that the demand environment is improving. However, the
squeeze on margins highlights the necessity for kraftliner players such as Smurfit
Kappa to push through the announced €60-80/tonne price increases in the market.




Home…


Banks; Internal bad bank to be created at ptsb
Reports this morning indicate that the Troika looks set to approve a plan to move troubled                      Eamonn Hughes
loans at ptsb into an internal bad bank today. ptsb will be organised into a core and non-core                   +353-1-641 9442
business, allowing the core business to resume lending in due course. The plan is expected to      eamonn.g.hughes@goodbody.ie
be announced by the Minister for Finance later today at the end of the Troika’s latest review.
                                                                                                                       Colm Foley
The non-core business will include some tracker mortgages and UK assets. The core part of                          +353-1-641 6042
the bank is anticipated to have about €14bn of loans, which compares to €33.7bn of loans at             colm.j.foley@goodbody.ie
the end of last December.

The setting up of an internal non-core bank follows the model in the UK adopted by the likes of
Lloyds and RBS. Transferring the loans into the non-core business may in due course allow for
these loans to be sold or transferred to IBRC should the government win approval to continue
with its wider restructuring of the state-controlled bank. AIB was also linked with the proposal
and presumably something similar will happen in due course. The intention is that ptsb will also
look to service the mortgages of other businesses, like AIB, though it is potentially up against
the likes of Certus for the contract.

If the loans stay within ptsb, though in the non-core division, presumably they will be
transferred at the value currently on the balance sheet and its associated capital. This
shouldn’t crystallise any capital implications up-front, though it still begs the question
as to what the ultimate losses on the loans will be. Our expectation is that losses across
all the Irish banks will tend to the PCAR adverse case on their Irish loan books. We will
also be interested in the funding dynamic of the entity, which may be announced in the
Minister’s commentary later today.



Home…



6                                                                                                              26 April 2012
         GOODBODY                                                                                     MORNING MEETING WRAP

Banks; Insolvency legislation to be delayed until June
Press reports this morning indicate that the draft personal insolvency legislation which was due                 Eamonn Hughes
to go into bill form by the end of April is unlikely to be ready until June. The revised timeline                 +353-1-641 9442
has been confirmed by the Department of Justice with the proposals yet to be given the green        eamonn.g.hughes@goodbody.ie
light by the Troika.
                                                                                                                        Colm Foley
                                                                                                                    +353-1-641 6042
The main proposals in the draft legislation published last January concerned a state run                 colm.j.foley@goodbody.ie
insolvency service and reductions in the bankruptcy term from 12 to 3 years. However, it
appears the complex nature of the bill is driving the delay of publication in bill form into the
summer.

In terms of timing, the bill is now likely to be voted on in the autumn session of the
parliament, in our view, and it could be into next year before implementation, given that
insolvency practitioners must be approved. Most of the concerns recently centred on
the discussion of the legislation in the public domain possibly driving deteriorating
arrears behaviour. Any delay may push out this risk, but the rising arrears are going to
have to be dealt with in some shape or form at some stage. Our view is that mortgage
losses will tend towards the PCAR adverse case for all the banks.




Home…


Origin Enterprises; Strong Q1 from Bayer helped by CropScience
Bayer reported a 6.8% rise in sales in Q1 and said it was “increasingly confident” about FY12.               Recommendation: Buy
Of particular interest was the strong performance in CropScience, where sales increased by                     Closing Price: €3.80
15.6% to €2.6bn, reflecting very strong growth in North America of 24.8%, Asia Pacific of
22.7%, while Europe increased by 5.2%. The increased momentum was due mainly to the                                       Liam Igoe
agri-season getting off to an early start in the Northern Hemisphere. Underlying margins and                        +353-1-641 9450
profits also improved at the division.                                                                    liam.a.igoe@goodbody.ie

The comments from Bayer are consistent with those elsewhere, which is that demand
for agri—inputs should be ahead of last year. This is positive for Origin which is in the
middle of its core selling period at the moment.




Home…



7                                                                                                              26 April 2012
         GOODBODY                                                                                  MORNING MEETING WRAP

Kerry Group; Q1 sales at Unilever driven by pricing
Unilever said this morning that its underlying sales increased by 8.4% in Q1 including                   Recommendation: Add
underlying volume growth of 3.5%. However, within its food business underlying growth was a               Closing Price: €33.95
more modest 5.9%, with underlying volume growth up by just 0.4%, helped by some new
product introductions like Knorr baking bags, also helped by an earlier Easter.                                       Liam Igoe
                                                                                                                +353-1-641 9450
For the full year, we are forecasting that Kerry will see lfl growth of 4.5% with 3.5% of             liam.a.igoe@goodbody.ie
this from lfl volume growth. Given the strong comps for Kerry in Q1 last year (lfl growth
of 10.5%, including 4.1% volumes), the lfl performance will be more weighted into Q2-
Q4. If Kerry delivers on this level of growth, it will reflect, as we expect, underlying
market share gain due to the ongoing implementation of the “One Kerry” programme,
especially in North America. Kerry is due to release its Q1 update before its AGM next
Wednesday.




Home…


FBD Holdings; Aon Insurance re-launches Insure.ie brand
Aon insurance has re-launched the Insure.ie brand under the name “AonInsure.ie”, with                    Recommendation: Buy
accompanying promises to undercut existing policies. The company will be purely an online                  Closing Price: €8.91
operation and aims to target families with low priced personal insurance in the motor, home
and travel insurance space.                                                                                          Colm Foley
                                                                                                                 +353-1-641 6042
The move follows the recent announcement from Liberty Insurance of its new product “Better            colm.j.foley@goodbody.ie
Car Replacement” where if a customer is in an accident or has its car stolen, Liberty will
replace the car with one that is a year younger and with 15,000 km less on the clock (or rather,
the cash equivalent).

The moves by Aon and Liberty are a natural next step after taking over their respective
domestic businesses. However, they will be seen as adding incrementally to
competition in the marketplace. The move by Aon to target pricing rather than features
(Liberty Insurance) may generate some concerns about price competition creeping back
into the market, but it remains a very small player in the online space. Aon only offers
an online option, compared to other operators in the market, such as FBD, which have
wider distribution across a range of distribution channels.




Home…



8                                                                                                           26 April 2012
        GOODBODY                                                                                   MORNING MEETING WRAP

Airlines; Lufthansa – CFO steps down
Lufthansa announced yesterday that its CFO, Stefan Gemkow, would be stepping down after a                     Eamonn Hughes
22 year career at the airline to take up the position of CEO at privately held Germany company                 +353-1-641 9442
Haniel. Gemkow served in a number of different positions during his career and has laterally     eamonn.g.hughes@goodbody.ie
been CFO since 2006.
                                                                                                                    Dónal O’Neill
                                                                                                                +353-1-641 0498
In recent years, he was widely credited with implementing a €1bn cost saving                        donal.t.o’neill@goodbody.ie
programme at the airline, but conversely is also credited with many of the less-than-
successful acquisitions the group has made in recent times. The current SCORE                                        Colm Foley
restructuring programme is believed to be driven by the CEO and could be a key reason                            +353-1-641 6042
                                                                                                      colm.j.foley@goodbody.ie
behind the CFO’s departure. Interestingly, the market shrugged off the news yesterday
as LHA finished the day up 3.8%.




Home…


Abbey; Taylor Wimpey trading at upper end of expectations
Taylor Wimpey has released an upbeat IMS this morning for the ytd in which it reports a stable            Recommendation: Buy
UK housing market and the Group is trading at eh upper end of expectations. Underlying                      Closing Price: €5.78
prices remain stable. However, mortgage availability remains restricted. Similar to comments
from Redrow earlier this week management note that the success of the mortgage indemnity                            David O'Brien
scheme will be dependent on the lenders providing competitively priced mortgages.                                 +353-1-641 9230
Cancellations rates remain below the long term average at 14%.                                      david.a.o'brien@goodbody.ie

With regard to the outlook, management remains confident in the prospects for 2012 despite
constrained mortgage availability.

This is another relatively upbeat statement from the sector this week which is
encouraging for Abbey. However, credit availability remains the key issue for the
industry and the success of the Government indemnity scheme will play a key role in
the performance of the sector.




Home…



9                                                                                                            26 April 2012
            GOODBODY                                                                                                      MORNING MEETING WRAP

Market Data

Top 10
                       Price      Mkt Cap                          Absolute                           Relative to European Sector                       P/E
                        (LC)          (LCM)        1 Day        1 Week       1 Mth      Ytd          1 Day   1 Week      1 Mth        Ytd       2012f          2013f
Tullow Oil             15.11          13,675           2.0         -0.5        2.6      7.8            1.1      -0.6        6.7       1.0         30.4          38.1
CRH                    15.13          10,836           0.7         -0.6       -3.8      -1.5          -0.3      -0.3       -0.6       -6.3        15.2          11.4
Ryanair                 4.26           6,323           0.6         -0.3       -1.5     17.3           -0.4      -0.0        1.9      11.7         12.6          12.0
Kerry Group            33.95           5,962           1.3         -1.4       -0.1     20.0            0.3      -1.1        3.2      14.2         14.7          13.4
Dragon Oil              6.00           3,089           0.2         -2.8       -2.4     31.1           -0.7      -3.0        1.5      22.8          7.2            7.4
Bank of Ireland         0.11           3,374              -        -4.3      -13.8     36.6           -1.0      -4.0      -10.9      30.0         n/m            n/m
ARYZTA                 38.20           3,163           -0.8        -0.4        4.7      1.9           -1.8      -0.1        8.2       -3.0        11.1          10.1
Travis Perkins         10.41           2,517           1.8         -1.4       -3.3     30.9            0.7      -1.1        2.2      27.1         11.0            9.3
William Hill            2.79           1,962           0.6          8.0       10.9     37.8           -0.5       8.4       17.1      33.8         10.5          10.7
easyJet                 4.87           1,925           -1.4         0.7        5.6     24.0           -2.5       1.0       11.5      20.5          8.7            8.7



Indices
%                          Price           1 Day              1 Week         1 Mth             Ytd     ISEQ performance
ISEQ                    3,217.95               1.24             -0.21         -1.43       10.89         3,400
FTSE 100                5,718.89               0.16             -0.46         -2.32        2.63         3,300
                                                                                                        3,200
DAX 30                  6,704.50               1.73             -0.41         -4.16       13.67         3,100
CAC 40                  3,233.46               2.02             -0.21         -6.98        2.33         3,000
                                                                                                        2,900
FTSE Eurofirst 300      1,042.55               0.97             -0.35         -3.42        4.11         2,800
Nasdaq                  3,029.63               2.30             -0.06         -1.25       16.29         2,700
                                                                                                        2,600
S&P 500                 1,390.69               1.36              0.40         -0.46       10.58         2,500
Dow Jones              13,090.72               0.69              0.44          0.08        7.15         2,400
                                                                                                        2,300
Nikkei 225              9,561.01               0.98             -1.10         -4.50       13.08             Apr-11     Jul-11     Oct-11       Jan-12         Apr-12


Exchanges Rates
                        Current         Px 1 day Px 1 Week                Px Dec11     Avg Ytd
                                                                                                       STOXX 600 performance
Stg/€                     0.818            0.818                0.819         0.835       0.832
US$/€                     1.318            1.320                1.312         1.298       1.312          290
                                                                                                         280
CHF/€                     1.202            1.202                1.202         1.214       1.207
                                                                                                         270
JPY/€                   107.331          107.142              106.699       99.880     104.665
                                                                                                         260
                                                                                                         250
Bonds
                                                                                                         240
                           Yield           1 Day         Yld 1 Wk         Yld 1 Mth   Yld 3 Mth          230
US 2 Yr                    0.27            -0.01                 0.01         -0.08        0.05          220
US 10 Yr                   1.99                0.01              0.01         -0.25            n/a       210
                                                                                                           Apr-11      Jul-11     Oct-11       Jan-12         Apr-12
UK 2 Yr                    0.42            -0.02                -0.04         -0.02        0.01
UK 10 Yr                   2.14                0.04              0.01         -0.04       -0.01

BD 2 Yr                    0.13                    -            -0.01         -0.10       -0.06        FTSE 250 performance
BD 10 Yr                   1.74                0.05              0.10         -0.12       -0.20
                                                                                                       12,500
Irish 10 Yr                    n/a              n/a               n/a           n/a            n/a
                                                                                                       12,000
                                                                                                       11,500
Commodities
                                                                                                       11,000
%                       Current            1 day                5 day        1 Mth         1 Yr
                                                                                                       10,500
Brent (ICE $/bbl)        119.12                0.81              0.30         -4.80       -3.67
                                                                                                       10,000
Gasoline (NYM $/Gal)           3.04            0.06              0.18         -5.69       -8.49
                                                                                                        9,500
Heat Oil (NYM $/Gal)           3.17            1.03              0.93         -1.79       -1.00
                                                                                                        9,000
Nat.Gas                        1.98            -1.59             3.57        -12.96      -55.00             Apr-11     Jul-11     Oct-11       Jan-12         Apr-12
Gold $/oz               1,637.75               -0.71            -0.23         -1.58        8.89
Silver $/ozt              30.88                0.06             -2.86         -2.09      -33.25
Copper U$/MT            8,194.00                   -             0.91         -2.46      -14.74
Wheat $/BU                     6.27            -0.95             0.56         -4.24      -27.26
Source : FactSet



10                                                                                                                                         26 April 2012
           GOODBODY                                                                                                 MORNING MEETING WRAP
Issuer & Analyst Disclosures




Analyst Certification
The named Research Analyst certifies that: (1) All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about
any and all of the subject securities and issuers. (2) No part of my remuneration was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed by me in this report.


Regulatory Information
Goodbody Stockbrokers is part of the Fexco group of companies. Goodbody Stockbrokers is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and is a
member firm of the Irish Stock Exchange and the London Stock Exchange. This publication has been approved by Goodbody Stockbr okers.
The information has been taken from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness and any such
information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute best judgement at the time of publication and are subject
to change without notice. The information, tools and material presented in this document are provided to you for information purposes only
and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities.


Conflicts of Interest
Goodbody Stockbrokers has procedures and policies in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection
with its research business. Goodbody Stockbrokers’ analysts and other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of
research operate and have a management reporting line that is independent to its Corporate Finance business. Information barriers are in
place between the Corporate Finance arm and the Research arm to ensure that any confidential and or price sensitive information is handled
in an appropriate manner.


Our Investment Research Conflicts of Interest Policy is available at http://www.goodbody.ie/research_disclosures/conflictsofinterest


Investors should be aware, that, where appropriate, research may be disclosed to the issuer(s) in advance of publication in order to correct
factual inaccuracies only and not to materially amend the research in any way. Goodbody Stockbrokers is satisfied that it ha s operational
procedures in place, which ensure that such disclosures will not compromise the report’s objectivity.


Goodbody Stockbrokers and its associated companies may from time to time perform investment banking or corporate finance services,
including underwriting, managing or advising on a public offering for, or solicit business from any company recommended in this report.


Goodbody Stockbrokers may have acted, in the past 12 months, as lead manager / co-lead manager in the securities of any company named
in this report.


Goodbody Stockbrokers acts as corporate broker to Aer Lingus, Datalex, DCC, FBD Holdings, First Derivatives, Grafton Group, Greencore,
Kingspan, NTR, Origin Enterprises, Paddy Power, United Drug, and UTV Media


Goodbody Stockbrokers is a registered market maker in the majority of companies listed on the Irish Stock Exchange and their equivalent on
the London Stock Exchange and may hold positions in any of the companies mentioned in this report from time to time. A complete list of the
companies that Goodbody Stockbrokers makes a market in is available at http://www.goodbody.ie/research_disclosures/regulatorydisclosures




11                                                                                                                                26 April 2012
             GOODBODY                                                                                            MORNING MEETING WRAP


Other disclosures
We would like to inform you that Robert Eason holds shares in Kingspan
A description of this company is available at www.goodbody.ie/research


All prices used in this report are as at close of business of the previous working day unless otherwise indicated.


A summary of our standard valuation methods are available at http://www.goodbody.ie/research_disclosures/valuationmethodologies


A summary of share price recommendations and whether material investment banking services have been provided to these companies is
available at http://www.goodbody.ie/research_disclosures/regulatorydisclosures


Other important disclosures are available at http://www.goodbody.ie/research_disclosures/regulatorydisclosures


Goodbody Stockbrokers updates its recommendations on a regular basis. A breakdown of all recommendations provided by Goodbody
Stockbrokers is available at http://www.goodbody.ie/research_disclosures/regulatorydisclosures. Where Goodbody Stockbrokers has provided
investment banking services to an issuer, details of the proportion of buys, adds, reduces and sells attributed to that issuer will also be
included. This is updated on a quarterly basis.


The date on which stock recommendations were first released for all stocks mentioned in this report are available at
http://www.goodbody.ie/research_disclosures/regulatorydisclosures/index.html. If a different recommendation has been made in the previous
twelve months, this will also be disclosed here.


Recommendation Definitions
Goodbody Stockbrokers uses the terms “buy”, “add”, “reduce” and “sell”. The term “buy” means that the analyst expects the security to
appreciate in excess of 15% over a twelve month period. The term “add” means that the analyst expects the security to apprec iate by up to
15% over a twelve month period. The term “reduce” means that the analyst expects the security to decline by up to 15% over the next twelve
months. The term “sell” means that the security is expected to decline in excess of 15% over the next twelve months. In the event that a stock
is delisted, the firm will automatically cease coverage. If, however, the firm ceases to cover a stock for any other reason, the firm will disclose
this fact.


For US Persons Only
This publication is only intended for use in the United States by Major Institutional Investors. A Major Institutional Inves tor is defined under
Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act 1934 as amended and interpreted by the SEC from time-to-time as having total assets in its own
account or under management in excess of $100 million. All transactions by US persons involving securities discussed in this report must be
effected through Goodbody Securities Inc.


Disclaimer
While all reasonable care has been taken in the production and dissemination of this report it is not to be relied upon in substitution
for the exercise of independent judgement. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a
representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a
personal recommendation to you.


Private customers having access, should not act upon it in anyway but should consult with their independent professional advisors.
The price, value and income of certain investments may rise or may be subject to sudden and large falls in value. You may not
recover the total amount originally invested. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future
performance; neither should simulated performance. The value of securities may be subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may
have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities.


All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise is copyright to Goodbody Stockbrokers. None of the material, nor
its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior expres s
written permission of Goodbody Stockbrokers.


Goodbody strockbrokers, Ballsbridge Park, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland
Goodbody Stockbrokers, Ballsbridge Park, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, Ireland
T (+353 1) 6670400
T (+353 1) 6670400    W www.goodbody.ie
                      W www.goodbody.ie         E research@goodbody.ie
                                                E research@goodbody.ie
12                                                                                                                            26 April 2012

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:3
posted:4/29/2012
language:
pages:12