UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS by jennyyingdi

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									                       UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS

                           January 2009 Summary


Based on 2001 Census wards – rates expressed as a percentage of
economically active population. These are not comparable with ONS figures


•   The unadjusted unemployment total for Worcestershire was 10,470 in
    December 2008. This represents an increase of 1,643 claimants from the
    previous month.

•   The Worcestershire unemployment rate is 3.8%. This represents an
    increase of 0.6% from the previous month.

•   The county rate (3.8%) still compares favourably with the unemployment
    rates for the West Midlands region (5.9%) and England and Wales (4.5%).
    Please note these rates are not comparable with ONS-produced figures.

•   Across the county, the Districts with the highest and lowest unemployment
    rates are Redditch (4.2%) and Malvern Hills (2.0%) respectively.

•   The male unemployment rate in Worcestershire is 5.2%, compared to the
    female rate of 2.3%. Both rates have seen an increase from the previous
    month. Please note these rates are not comparable with ONS-produced
    figures.

•   In terms of urban centres, Kidderminster had the highest unemployment
    rates at 5.4%. This represents an increase from the previous month. The
    lowest unemployment rate was in Wythall (2.6%).


•   National Statistics have published the vacancy dataset. Figures from
    December 2007 to January 2009 are included.




The Research & Intelligence Unit produces this document monthly. If you have any
questions or queries please contact the unit on 01905 822026 or email:
spugh@worcestershire.gov.uk.
                         NATIONAL ECONOMIC NEWS

CORUS AXES 3,500 JOBS WORLDWIDE
Corus, Britain’s largest steelmaker, on Monday announced cuts of 3,500 jobs
from its global workforce of 41,000, with 2,500 jobs to go in the UK where it
employs 20,000. The announcement follows a 30 per cent drop in orders as a
result of the collapse in construction and falling car sales, which fell by almost
half in December compared with the previous year. The group, owned by Tata
Steel of India, has already taken short-term measures to cope with the fall in
demand. Such measures have included mothballing some plants and imposing
short-time working. The move, which is understood to bring forward longer-term
restructuring plans, will not involve the closure of large steel plants such as Port
Talbot, Scunthorpe and Teesside. Plummeting car production has also hit
components suppliers such as GKN, which will issue a trading statement on
Wednesday that is expected to reveal the loss of several thousand jobs following
two profits warnings in the autumn.
                                                       www.ft.com 26 January 2009

PROMOTING ENGINEERING AS A CAREER
Young people from low-income families, ethnic minorities and girls are being
given a financial helping hand by the government to encourage them to go into
engineering. The Smallpiece Trust – which was founded in 1966 by pioneering
engineer Dr Cosby Smallpiece – has been awarded funding from the Children,
Young People and Families Grant Programme to support new courses. The £1.1
million grant will enable the trust, in partnership with STEMNET and the WISE
Campaign to promote the importance of science, technology, engineering and
maths (STEM) subjects to 8,000 school children from disadvantaged
backgrounds – specifically targeting ‘hard to reach’ groups. The new programme
– called Get Ahead With Stem – starts in April with half or one-day in-school
sessions and eight residential courses over a two year period. Recent industry
surveys have highlighted the shortage of skilled workers rather than a lack of
demands for business as the biggest issue facing the sector. Only eight per cent
of engineering and technical workers are female so the courses will have an
objective of achieving at least 50 per cent female participation.
                                         www.birminghampost.net 27 January 2009


HOUSE PRICES IN THE WEST MIDLANDS
Average house prices in the West Midlands are £137,493, which is five times the
typical earnings for full-time workers in the region. According to GMB union 11 of
the 14 areas of the West Midlands are above the affordability range, which is 4.5
times above average earnings. Houses in Herefordshire, Worcestershire and
Solihull are the top area in the region where house prices are deemed to be
unaffordable for the average person. Average house prices in Herefordshire are
£185,829 which is 6.4 times the average earnings for full-time workers who live in
the county. However, the trend is reversed in Stoke-on-Trent, where the average
cost of a house is £88,984, which is 3.8 times the average earnings of workers
and within the house price affordability range. In Sandwell and Coventry house
prices are already at the affordability range of 4.5 times average earnings of
people living in the areas. In England and Wales as a whole house prices are 5.1
times average earnings.
                                         www.birminghampost.net 27 January 2009
MORTGAGE BLACKSPOTS
Homeowners who took out two-year fixes last year are being urged to take steps
to boost the equity in their homes – or face up to £3,000 a year premiums when
their mortgage deals expire in 2010. Exclusive figures from Savills, the broker
and estate agent, reveal that hundreds of thousands of borrowers who secured
mortgages last year with deposits of nearly 50% are likely to be denied access to
the best deals. House prices have fallen 17% since the start of 2008 and are
generally expected to drop another 10% this year – meaning that these
homeowners will see their equity fall below the 40% level at which the best
mortgages can be achieved. More than half of mortgages taken out last year
were fixed-rate deals, with the vast majority over the two years – so many will
come to the end of their deals next year. Borrowers in Exeter and Brighton took
out loans with an average loan-to-value (LTV) – the loan as a proportion of the
property price – of 57% and 54% respectively during 2008. With another 10% fall
in prices they would be forced to borrow 67% and 64% by 2010. The picture is
worse for borrowers in Bristol and Cambridge, who will see their equity reduced
to less than 25% and face paying an average 6.29%. Homeowners in
Birmingham could find themselves in the remortgage “danger zone” with as little
as 8% remaining when they come to remortgage next year.
                                              The Sunday Times 1 February 2009

CHINESE STEEL MILLS FORECAST PRICES WILL RISE
Most Chinese steel mills expect steel prices to rise this year in spite of gloomy
prospects for domestic demand and exports, according to a new survey from
Steel Business Briefing, the consultancy. The forecast comes as Chinese mills
and global miners Vale of Brazil, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton start their annual iron
ore price negotiations, in which steel makers are demanding a record cut for the
key raw material input for steel. Of the 24 mills surveyed – which included eight of
the top Chinese mills - a majority expect average steel prices this year to be
higher than current levels, even though half expect domestic steel demand to fall
and two thirds expect exports to decline. A majority of mills also believe average
raw materials prices will fall more than average steel prices, boosting margins.
                                                   Financial Times 29 January 2009

UK TO FARE WORST IN RECESSION SAYS IMF
Britain is facing the deepest recession of any big industrial economy, the
International Monetary Fund signalled yesterday as it said that the UK economy
would shrink 2.8 per cent this year. The forecast came in a gloomy IMF report
that said the world economy will suffer its worst performance for more than 60
years this year. It coincided with a report from the International Labour
Organisation that said the global recession would certainly cost at least 18m-30m
jobs worldwide, and could claim more than 50m. The IMF said that world output,
measured at market exchange rates, would fall in 2009 for the first time since the
second world war. This marks a huge revision – down by more than 1.5
percentage points – from the IMF’s previous forecast for the year, in spite of the
inclusion of fiscal stimulus efforts by governments into its predictions for the first
time.
                                                 Financial Times 29 January 2009
BIRMINGHAM ENGINEERING FIRM WINS £400,000 DEAL
Birmingham engineering company Sorion has bucked the automotive industry
downturn by winning an order worth more than £400,000 against competition
form Germany. The Ladywood company, which supplies diagnostic products and
testing equipment to the automotive and manufacturing industries, won the new
business with the help of Accelerate’s international initiative, AutoZone. The new
orders are with an un-named British luxury carmaker and an Italian sports car
manufacturer. Sorion said that not only have the orders secured the firm for 2009,
but also they are now looking to take on additional skilled engineers to fulfil the
contracts. Funded and managed by supply chain supports programme
Accelerate, which is backed by Birmingham Chamber of Commerce, AutoZone
supports companies looking to cash in on the multi-million pound order pipeline
serving the European automotive sector.
                                       www.birminghampost.net 2 February 2009

PONTIN’S TO CREATE 2,000 NEW JOBS
Holiday firm Pontin’s is to invest £50 million in its six UK sites, creating more than
2,000 new jobs, The new posts will include catering, retail and bar staff as well as
Blue Coats and will involve a mixture of full, part time and seasonal positions.
Pontin’s has holiday parks at six seaside locations, the sites at Brean Sands and
Prestatyn Sands will be completely refurbished and the centres at Camber sands
and Southport will be completely redesigned and re-built. The Pakefield holiday
centre will double in size and capacity.
                                   www.kidderminstershuttle.co.uk 3 February 2009

EMPLOYERS SAVE MONEY
Engineering skills vacancies in the West Midlands are costing the regional
economy £141m a year according to the latest research from Semta, the skills
council for science, engineering and manufacturing technologies. The news
comes as sector employers are urged to stave off the economic downturn by
improving the skills of their workforce through productivity and competitiveness
training and a £65m sector funding deal for companies based in England. The
new report, entitled Engineering Skills Balance Sheet – West Midlands, sets out
the critical skills supply and demand issues facing the West Midlands engineering
sector and what is required to address these issues. Currently, 19 per cent of
engineering establishments in the West Midlands report skills gaps. Key stats
from the report include that 15 per cent of engineering establishments in the West
Midlands had hard-to-fill vacancies between March 2006/7; that over the period
2008-2014, there is expected to be a net requirement within the engineering
industry in the West Midlands for 6,100 employees and that 17 per cent of
engineering employees in the West Midlands have no qualifications and many
more are under qualified for their roles. Semta has secured a £65m funding
compact with the Government to deliver required skills training. Companies
interested in finding out more should contact Semta or visit www.semta,org.uk
                                         www.birminghampost.net 3 February 2009

BUSINESSES WEIGH UP COST OF WEATHER
Heavy snow hit much of the north and west of Britain on Tuesday as the south-
east returned to work after significant falls had extended many workers’
weekends by a day. Many national rail lines were running without delays,
however. The most significant problems remained in south London, where trains
run on electrified third rails that are more susceptible to bad weather. Early
estimates that the disruption could cost the economy £1bn were challenged by
the Centre for Economic and Business Research, which suggested the snow
would have no net effect on gross domestic product. The research centre
warned, however, that payment delays could cause serious cash flow problems
and hasten the demise of up to 3,000 businesses. With an estimated 20% of the
country’s workforce staying at home, the pub sector might have hoped to cash in.
But it faced the same problems as other businesses, with workers, deliveries and
customers unable to get through the snow.
                                                Financial Times 4 February 2009

JOBS FEAR AS STATE AID APPLICATION DELAYED
The UK has yet to apply to Brussels for the state aid approval required for more
than £310bn of promised state support for banks and business – in spite of
ministers stressing the urgency of the initiatives. Businesses warned yesterday
that the delays and uncertainty surrounding the Treasury and Department for
Business support packages were exacerbating the effects of the recession. Jobs
could be lost unnecessarily because of the lack of clarity surrounding the
government’s proposals, the leading employers’ organisation suggested.
Government packages unveiled last month that support the car industry, lend to
business and bail out the banks for the second time cannot be fully implemented
without state aid approval for at least some of the elements. But the government
has yet to submit the notification to the European Commission needed to start the
formal approval process for any of the schemes announced recently that need
state aid clearance. Other elements of the government’s recessionary packages
are also being hit by delays. The Treasury pledged on January 19 that a £50bn
scheme of the Bank of England to buy corporate paper and other assets “will
come into effect from February 2”. But officials told the FT yesterday that a Bank
notice on asset purchase this week will be of a “consultative nature” and the
scheme will not start immediately.
                                                  Financial Times 5 February 2009

HUGH RISE IN COMPANIES GOING BUST
There has been a huge rise in the number of firms going bust in England and
Wales because of the recession. The Insolvency Service said that in the last
three months of 2008 there were 2,428 corporate insolvencies such as
administrations and receiverships. That was a 220% rise on the same period the
year before. In the same period, 29,444 people were made bankrupt or entered
an individual voluntary arrangement (IVA), 19% more than a year ago. Of those,
19,100 were bankruptcies while 10,344 were IVAs. Corporate liquidations, the
end of the insolvency process, also rose strongly, with 4,607 firms being wound
up in England and Wales in the last three months of 2008, 52% more than a year
before.
                                           www.news.bbc.co.uk 6 February 2009

HOUSE PRICES UP IN JANUARY
The average price of UK homes rose by 1.9% in January from December’s figure,
according to the Halifax. However it warned that one month’s figures did not
indicate an end to the downward trend in prices, which it says have dropped
17.2% in the past year. The average house price has now reached £163,966,
according to the Halifax.
                                         www.news.bbc.co.uk 6 February 2009
NISSAN TO CUT 20,000 GLOBAL JOBS
Nissan is to cut 20,000 jobs worldwide, 8.5 % of its workforce, over the next year
because of a sharp fall in sales. The Japanese carmaker made the
announcement as it said it expected to make a loss of £2bn for its current
financial year. The Chief Executive said, “ The global auto industry is in turmoil.
Nissan is no exception.” The 20,000 job cuts would be made between March
2009 and March 2010. The reduction will see the size of its global workforce fall
to 215,000 from 235,000. The company had already announced job cuts last
month, including 1,200 at its UK plant in Sunderland. Most of the world’s other
carmakers have also seen sales and profits slump as a result of the economic
downturn. Since the start of the year, Honda has announced 3,100 redundancies,
while General Motors is reducing its workforce by 2,000. Other car firms, such as
Toyota, Porsche, Honda and BMW, have announced reductions in output as
fewer people buy new cars.
                                            www.news.bbc.co.uk 9 February 2009
                           LOCAL ECONOMIC NEWS

THIRTY THREE JOBS TO GO
More than 30 jobs are being axed at a Worcester-based car parts company. The
redundancies are being negotiated at Metal Castings in Droitwich Road,
Worcester. The company, which also made 18 job cuts before Christmas, has
blamed the worsening economic climate. The cuts will leave a staff of 169
employees. Most of the jobs to be lost involve staffing cover for the night shift.
                                                Worcester News 21January 2009

CAR PARTS FIRM CONFIRMS JOB CUTS
Engineering group GKN has said it has cut 2,800 jobs globally since October and
may have to shed more because of the slump in the global industry. The UK firm
which supplies carmakers including Land Rover and Ford, said it had cut 242 UK
positions so far. The Redditch-based firm has four UK factories manufacturing
car parts in the West Midlands and Telford that currently employ 2,000
permanent staff out of a UK total of 6,300.
                                            www.news.bbc.co.uk 28 January 2009

METAL PRESSINGS GOES BUST
A major west Midlands supplier to the car sector has gone bust after 75 years –
leading to another 90 job losses in the deepening recession. Administrators PKF
have been called in at Redditch based Metal Pressings Group in the latest body
blow to the region’s manufacturing base. Around half of the 175-strong workforce
have been shred already as the administrators battle to find a buyer for the
stricken firm, a long-established first tier supplier to the automotive sector. The
Worcestershire group supplies components to a string of global car firms,
including General Motors, Toyota, Ford, BMW and Nissan but has been severely
hit by the slump in car sales across the world. Metal Pressings Group, one of the
biggest employers in the Redditch area, was formed following the amalgamation
of a number of West Midland companies. It roots are in Birmingham, where it was
founded more than 75 years ago.
                                         www.birminghampost.net 3 February 2009




NEW LOGO FOR WORCESTERSHIRE
Destination Worcestershire which promotes the county, has unveiled its new logo
for use on visitor guides, Worcestershire souvenirs and also its own website. A
statement issued by Destination Worcestershire said “ We think the changes we
have made with this new branding will help raise awareness of Worcestershire as
a visitor destination and generate more income for the county’s third largest
industry. We are very pleased with the new branding – it references the heritage
of the county as well as looking clean and modern Destination Worcestershire is
a public-private partnership funded by the county’s six district councils, the county
council and the Government regional development agency.
                                     www.worcesternews.co.uk 9 February 2009
                                    EMPLOYMENT SUMMARY

                                      July 2007 – June 2008

The figures published below are taken from the Annual Population Survey (APS), a residence-based
labour market survey. Across Worcestershire, approximately 1,500 people are surveyed each year.
Datasets are released quarterly, with each containing details from survey responses received in the
preceding 12 months. Figures are based upon all responses received between July 2007 and June
2008. The dataset for October 2007 to September 2008 is due to be released during May 2009.




Employment by Local Authority in Worcestershire, July 2007 – June 2008 (working age)




                                                                     Lower      Upper
                                                            95% confidence confidence
                                                     Confidence limit (rate limit (rate
                                                 Interval of rate    minus        plus
                      Number Employment             (percentage confidence confidence
                                       1
Authority            employed      rate                 points)2  interval)   interval)
Bromsgrove             45,200       83.2                      5.6      77.6        88.8
Malvern Hills          32,800       79.3                      7.1      72.2        86.4
Redditch               39,300       77.0                      6.1      70.9        83.1
Worcester              46,900       79.6                      6.0      73.6        85.6
Wychavon               53,800       78.2                      6.1      72.1        84.3
Wyre Forest            41,000       69.4                      7.5      61.9        76.9

Worcestershire          259,000           77.6              2.6         75.0         80.2
West Midlands         2,362,300           72.4              0.7         71.7         73.1
England              23,551,700           74.5              0.2         74.3         74.7
1
 Rate is calculated as a proportion of all people of working age (Male = 16-64, Females = 16-59).
2
 The confidence interval is the range of values, above or below the employment rate, within which we
can be 95% sure that the true value for the whole population lies.

Source: NOMIS, 2009. Annual Population Survey.
Employment by industry in Worcestershire, July 2007 – June 2008 (working age)




                                                                     95%       Lower              Upper
                                                      Number Confidence confidence           confidence
                                                 employed as Interval of limit (rate          limit (rate
                                                 % of working         rate     minus                plus
                                        Number         age in (percentage confidence         confidence
Industry                               employed employment        points)2  interval)           interval)
Agriculture and fishing                   19,100          7.4          1.9        5.5                 9.3
Energy and water                           2,400          0.9            *          *                   *
Manufacturing                             46,500         18.0          2.7       15.3                20.7
Construction                              17,400          6.7          1.8        4.9                 8.5
Distribution, hotels and restaurants      45,100         17.4          2.7       14.7                20.1
Transport and communications              13,800          5.3          1.6        3.7                 6.9
Banking, finance and insurance            39,800         15.4          2.6       12.8                18.0
Public admin. education and health        61,000         23.6          3.0       20.6                26.6
Other services                            11,600          4.5          1.5        3.0                 6.0
Total services                           171,200         66.1          3.4       62.7                69.5

* Estimate and confidence interval unreliable since the group sample size is small (3-9).
1
  The confidence interval is the range of values, above or below the employment rate, within which we
can be 95% sure that the true value for the whole population lies.
2
  Total Services includes ‘Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants’, ‘Transport and Communications’,
‘Banking, Finance and Insurance’, ‘Public Administration, Education and Health’ and ‘Other Services’.

Data cannot be provided at Local Authority level as sample sizes are too small to provide reliable
estimates for several sectors.

Source: NOMIS, 2009. Annual Population Survey.
                                                                                                                                                                              %




                                                                                                                                                               60
                                                                                                                                                                    65
                                                                                                                                                                         70
                                                                                                                                                                              75
                                                                                                                                                                                   80
                                                                                                                                                                                        85
                                                                                                                                                                                             90
                                                                                                                                          Jun 1994-May 1995
                                                                                                                                         Sep 1994-Aug 1995
                                                                                                                                         Dec 1994-Nov 1995
                                                                                                                                          Mar 1995-Feb 1996
                                                                                                                                          Jun 1995-May 1996
                                                                                                                                         Sep 1995-Aug 1996
                                                                                                                                         Dec 1995-Nov 1996
                                                                                                                                          Mar 1996-Feb 1997
                                                                                                                                          Jun 1996-May 1997
                                                                                                                                         Sep 1996-Aug 1997
                                                                                                                                         Dec 1996-Nov 1997
                                                                                                                                          Mar 1997-Feb 1998
                                                                                                                                          Jun 1997-May 1998
                                                                                                                                         Sep 1997-Aug 1998
                                                                                                                                         Dec 1997-Nov 1998
                                                                                                                                          Mar 1998-Feb 1999
                                                                                                                                          Jun 1998-May 1999
                                                                                                                                         Sep 1998-Aug 1999
                                                                                                                                         Dec 1998-Nov 1999
                                                                                                                                          Mar 1999-Feb 2000




Source: NOMIS, Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey.
                                                                                                                                          Jun 1999-May 2000
                                                                                                                                         Sep 1999-Aug 2000
                                                                                                                                         Dec 1999-Nov 2000
                                                                                                                                          Mar 2000-Feb 2001
                                                                                                                                          Jun 2000-May 2001
                                                                                                                                         Sep 2000-Aug 2001




! from this year onwards, the sample size for Worcestershire was reduced from 4,500 to 1,500.
                                                                                                                                         Dec 2000-Nov 2001




or below the rate, within which we can be 95% sure that the true value for the whole population lies.
                                                                                                                                          Mar 2001-Feb 2002
                                                                                                                                          Jun 2001-May 2002
                                                                                                                                         Sep 2001-Aug 2002
                                                                                                                                         Dec 2001-Nov 2002
                                                                                                                                          Mar 2002-Feb 2003
                                                                                                                                          Jun 2002-May 2003
* indicates data from the Annual Population Survey (APS), prior to this, data is taken from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).


                                                                                                                                         Sep 2002-Aug 2003
                                                                                                                                         Dec 2002-Nov 2003
                                                                                                                                          Mar 2003-Feb 2004
                                                                                                                                          Jun 2003-May 2004
Bars indicate 95% confidence interval (CI). CIs are only provided for APS data . The confidence interval is the range of values, above




                                                                                                                                         Sep 2003-Aug 2004
                                                                                                                                         Jan 2004-Dec 2004*
                                                                                                                                         Apr 2004-Mar 2005*
                                                                                                                                         Oct 2004-Sep 2005*
                                                                                                                                         Jan 2005-Dec 2005*
                                                                                                                                         Apr 2005-Mar 2006*!
                                                                                                                                          Jul 2005-Jun 2006*
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Working age employment rate, Worcestershire (Jun1994-May1995 to Jul2007-Jun2007)




                                                                                                                                         Oct 2005-Sep 2006*
                                                                                                                                         Jan 2006-Dec 2006*
                                                                                                                                         Apr 2006-Mar 2007*
                                                                               Time period




                                                                                                                                          Jul 2006-Jun 2007*
                                                                                                                                         Oct 2006-Sep 2007*
                                                                                                                                         Jan 2007-Dec 2007*
                                                                                                                                         Apr 2007-Mar 2008*
                                                                                                                                          Jul 2007-Jun 2008*
                                                                                                                                                        Number employed (Working age)
                                                                                                                                                                                              Thousands




                                                                                                                                      225
                                                                                                                                            230
                                                                                                                                                  235
                                                                                                                                                           240
                                                                                                                                                                  245
                                                                                                                                                                        250
                                                                                                                                                                               255
                                                                                                                                                                                        260
                                                                                                                                                                                                265
                                                                                                                                                                                                      270
                                                                                                                 Jun 1994-May 1995
                                                                                                                 Sep 1994-Aug 1995
                                                                                                                 Dec 1994-Nov 1995
                                                                                                                 Mar 1995-Feb 1996
                                                                                                                 Jun 1995-May 1996
                                                                                                                 Sep 1995-Aug 1996
                                                                                                                 Dec 1995-Nov 1996
                                                                                                                 Mar 1996-Feb 1997
                                                                                                                 Jun 1996-May 1997
                                                                                                                 Sep 1996-Aug 1997
                                                                                                                 Dec 1996-Nov 1997
                                                                                                                 Mar 1997-Feb 1998
                                                                                                                 Jun 1997-May 1998
                                                                                                                 Sep 1997-Aug 1998
                                                                                                                 Dec 1997-Nov 1998
                                                                                                                 Mar 1998-Feb 1999
                                                                                                                 Jun 1998-May 1999
                                                                                                                 Sep 1998-Aug 1999
                                                                                                                 Dec 1998-Nov 1999
                                                                                                                 Mar 1999-Feb 2000
                                                                                                                 Jun 1999-May 2000
                                                                                                                 Sep 1999-Aug 2000




Source: NOMIS, Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey.
                                                                                                                 Dec 1999-Nov 2000
                                                                                                                 Mar 2000-Feb 2001
                                                                                                                 Jun 2000-May 2001
                                                                                                                 Sep 2000-Aug 2001
                                                                                                                 Dec 2000-Nov 2001




! from this year onwards, the sample size for Worcestershire was reduced from 4,500 to 1,500.
                                                                                                                 Mar 2001-Feb 2002
                                                                                                                 Jun 2001-May 2002
                                                                                                                 Sep 2001-Aug 2002
* indicates data from the Annual Population Survey, prior to this, data is taken from the Labour Force Survey.   Dec 2001-Nov 2002
                                                                                                                 Mar 2002-Feb 2003
                                                                                                                 Jun 2002-May 2003
                                                                                                                 Sep 2002-Aug 2003
                                                                                                                 Dec 2002-Nov 2003
                                                                                                                 Mar 2003-Feb 2004
                                                                                                                 Jun 2003-May 2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Number of people of working age in employment, Worcestershire




                                                                                                                 Sep 2003-Aug 2004
                                                                                                             Jan 2004-Dec 2004*
                                                                                                                 Apr 2004-Mar 2005*
                                                                                                                 Oct 2004-Sep 2005*
                                 Time period




                                                                                                             Jan 2005-Dec 2005*
                                                                                                       Apr 2005-Mar 2006*!
                                                                                                                 Jul 2005-Jun 2006*
                                                                                                                 Oct 2005-Sep 2006*
                                                                                                             Jan 2006-Dec 2006*
                                                                                                                 Apr 2006-Mar 2007*
                                                                                                                 Jul 2006-Jun 2007*
                                                                                                                 Oct 2006-Sep 2007*
                                                                                                             Jan 2007-Dec 2007*
                                                                                                                 Apr 2007-Mar 2008*
                                                                                                                 Jul 2007-Jun 2008*
                        Economic Indicators


                                                        Percentage change in claimant count on same month in previous year,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Inflation: Consumer Prices Index and Retail Prices Index
                                                                                  Worcestershire                                                                                                                                                                                                           6
                  80                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                CPI




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Month, year12 month change (%)
                                                                                                                                                            Claiming for over 12                                                                                                                           5
                                                                                                                                                            months                                                                                                                                                                                  RPI
                                                                                                                                                            Claiming for over 6 months
                  60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           4
                                                                                                                                                            Claimant Count - Total

                  40                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       3
Change (%)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2
                  20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1
                        0
                                 Oct-05

                                               Dec-05

                                                        Feb-06

                                                                 Apr-06

                                                                             Jun-06

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                                                                                                  Oct-06

                                                                                                           Dec-06

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                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-07

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Oct-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2007 Jun

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2007 Aug




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2008 Feb



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2008 Jun

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2008 Aug
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2005 Oct




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2006 Oct




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2007 Oct




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2008 Oct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2005 Dec




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2006 Dec




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2007 Dec




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2008 Dec
               -20


               -40                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Month, year
                                                                                                                             Month, year                                                                                                                               Source: Office for National Statistics, 2008.
Source: NOMIS, 2008.

                                      Home Orders and Change in Gross Domestic Product (chained volume measures:                                                                                                                                                                                                      Percentage change in house prices and sales on the same period in the previous
                                                               seasonally adjusted), UK                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           year, Worcestershire
                                   40                                                                           2.0                                                                                                                                                                                        30
                                   30                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       House prices
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1.5                                                                      20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            House sales
                                   20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Change in GDP on previous
      Percentage balance (home




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1.0                                                                      10
                                   10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.5                                                                           0
                                          0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  quarter (%)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Q2 2006



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Q3 2006



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Q4 2006



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Q1 2007



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Q2 2007



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Q3 2007



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Q4 2007



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Q1 2008



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Q2 2008



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Q3 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Change (%)
               orders)


                                              Q305

                                                         Q404

                                                                      Q106

                                                                                      Q206

                                                                                                  Q306

                                                                                                             Q406

                                                                                                                             Q107

                                                                                                                                             Q207

                                                                                                                                                        Q307

                                                                                                                                                                    Q407

                                                                                                                                                                                    Q108

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Q208

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Q308

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Q408




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           -10
                                 -10                                                                                                                                                                                              0.0

                                 -20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  -0.5
                                 -30                                      Service                                                                                                                                                                                                                          -30
                                                                          Manufacturing                                                                                                                                           -1.0
                                 -40                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -40
                                                                          GDP
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  -1.5
                                 -50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -50
                                 -60                                                                                                                                                                                              -2.0
                                                                                        Quarter                                                                                                                                                                                                            -60
                                                                                                                                           Note: Percentage balance indicates the difference
                                                                                                                                      between the percentage of respondents giving a positive
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Quarter
Source: British Chambers of Commerce, 2008.                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Source: Land Registry, 2008.
                                                                                                                                             response, and the percentage giving a negative
                                                                                             Rate (%)                                                                                                                                                                    Rate (%)




                                                                             0
                                                                                 1
                                                                                     2
                                                                                         3
                                                                                               4
                                                                                                    5
                                                                                                        6
                                                                                                            7
                                                                                                                    8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              20
                                                             01/06/2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-78
                                                             01/07/2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-80
                                                             01/08/2007

                                                             01/09/2007                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-82

                                                             01/10/2007                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-84
                                                             01/11/2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Economic Indicators




                            Source: Bank of England, 2008.
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Source: Bank of England, 2008.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-86
                                                             01/12/2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-88
                                                             01/01/2008

                                                             01/02/2008                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-90
                                                             01/03/2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-92
                                                             01/04/2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-94
                                                             01/05/2008




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Month, year




               Day, month, year
                                                             01/06/2008                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-96

                                                             01/07/2008                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-98
                                                             01/08/2008



                                                                                                                               Libor (3 month rate - daily), since June 2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-00
                                                             01/09/2008

                                                             01/10/2008                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-02

                                                             01/11/2008                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-04
                                                             01/12/2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Bank of England Base Rate and Libor (3 month rate - end of month), long-series




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Libor




                                                             01/01/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Base rate




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-08
                                                             01/02/2009



                                                                 O                       Rate (%)                                                                                                                                                                       Rate (%)
                                                                   ct
                                                                      -0                                                                                                                                                                   O




                                                                             0
                                                                                 1
                                                                                     2
                                                                                         3
                                                                                              4
                                                                                                   5
                                                                                                        6
                                                                                                            7
                                                                                                                    8




                                                                 D 5                                                                                                                                                                         ct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               -0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          7




                                                                  ec
                                                                      -0                                                                                                                                                                   D 5
                                                                 Fe 5                                                                                                                                                                       ec
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               -0
                                                                   b-
                                                                       0                                                                                                                                                                   Fe 5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             b-
                                                                 Ap 6                                                                                                                                                                           0
                                                                                                        SVR
                                                                                                        Libor
                                                                                                        Fixed




                                                                    r-0                                                                                                                                                                    Ap 6
                                                                 Ju 6                                                                                                                                                                         r-0
                                                                                                        Base rate




                                                                   n-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Libor




                                                                       0                                                                                                                                                                   Ju 6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             n-
                                                                 Au 6                                                                                                                                                                           0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Base rate




                                                                   g-                                                                                                                                                                      Au 6
                                                                       0                                                                                                                                                                     g-
                                                                 O 6
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Source: Bank of England, 2008.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0
                                                                   ct
                                                                     -0                                                                                                                                                                    O 6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ct
                                                                 D 6                                                                                                                                                                           -0
                                                                  ec
                                                                     -0                                                                                                                                                                    D 6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ec
                                                                 Fe 6                                                                                                                                                                          -0
                                                                   b-                                                                                                                                                                      Fe 6
                                                                       0                                                                                                                                                                     b-
                                                                 Ap 7                                                                                                                                                                           0
                                                                    r-0                                                                                                                                                                    Ap 7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              r-0
                                                                 Ju 7
                                                                   n-                                                                                                                                                                      Ju 7
                                                                       0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               series




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             n-
                                                                 Au 7                                                                                                                                                                           0
                                                                   g-                                                                                                                                                                      Au 7
                                                                       0                                                                                                                                                                     g-
                                                                 O 7                                                                                                                                                                            0
                                              Month, year




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           O 7
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Month, year




                                                                   ct
                                                                     -0                                                                                                                                                                      ct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               -0
                                                                 D 7                                                                                                                                                                       D 7
Source: Bank of England and Council of Mortgage Lenders, 2008.




                                                                  ec                                                                                                                                                                        ec
                                                                     -0                                                                                                                                                                        -0
                                                                 Fe 7                                                                                                                                                                      Fe 7
                                                                   b-
                                                                       0                                                                                                                                                                     b-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0
                                                                 Ap 8                                                                                                                                                                      Ap 8
                                                                    r-0                                                                                                                                                                       r-0
                                                                 Ju 8                                                                                                                                                                      Ju 8
                                                                   n-                                                                                                                                                                        n-
                                                                       0                                                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                 Au 8                                                                                                                                                                      Au 8
                                                                   g-                                                                                                                                                                        g-
                                                                       0                                                                                                                                                                        0
                                                                 O 8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Bank of England Base Rate and Libor (3 month rate - end of month), 3 year




                                                                   ct                                                                                                                                                                      O 8
                                                                     -0                                                                                                                                                                      ct
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               -0
                                                                                                                        Mortgage rates (Fixed & SVR) compared with Bank of England Base Rate & Libor




                                                                 D 8                                                                                                                                                                       D 8
                                                                  ec                                                                                                                                                                        ec
                                                                     -0                                                                                                                                                                        -0
                                                                         8                                                                                                                                                                        8
              Economic Indicators


                                 Change in the number of loans for house purchase, UK (all)                                                    Change in the number of loans for house purchase, UK (first-time buyers)

             40                                                                                                            60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    % change on same month in previous
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    year
                                                                                                                           40
             20                                                                                                                                                                                                     % change on the 2002-2006 average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    for the equivalent month
                                                                                                                           20
              0




                   May
                   May




                   May
                   Mar




                   Mar
                   Mar




                   Nov
                   Nov




                   Nov




                   Nov
                   Apr

                   Jun

                   Aug
                   Sep



                   Jan
                   Feb

                   Apr

                   Jun

                   Aug
                   Sep
                   Jan
                   Feb

                   Apr

                   Jun

                   Aug
                   Sep



                   Jan
                   Feb




                    Jul
                    Jul




                    Jul
                   Oct




                   Oct




                   Oct
                   Oct




                   Dec
                   Dec




                   Dec
Change (%)




                                                                                                     Change (%)
                                                                                                                            0




                                                                                                                                   May
                                                                                                                                   May




                                                                                                                                   May
                                                                                                                                   Mar




                                                                                                                                   Mar
                                                                                                                                   Mar




                                                                                                                                   Nov




                                                                                                                                   Nov




                                                                                                                                   Nov
                                                                                                                                   Nov




                                                                                                                                   Jun

                                                                                                                                   Aug
                                                                                                                                   Sep
                                                                                                                                   Jan
                                                                                                                                   Feb

                                                                                                                                   Apr

                                                                                                                                   Jun

                                                                                                                                   Aug
                                                                                                                                   Sep



                                                                                                                                   Jan
                                                                                                                                   Feb

                                                                                                                                   Apr

                                                                                                                                   Jun

                                                                                                                                   Aug
                                                                                                                                   Sep



                                                                                                                                   Jan
                                                                                                                                   Feb

                                                                                                                                   Apr
                                                                                                                                    Jul




                                                                                                                                    Jul




                                                                                                                                    Jul
                                                                                                                                   Oct




                                                                                                                                   Oct
                                                                                                                                   Oct




                                                                                                                                   Oct




                                                                                                                                   Dec
                                                                                                                                   Dec




                                                                                                                                   Dec
             -20    2005               2006                        2007                       2008
                                                                                                                          -20
                                                                                                                                       2005                      2006                                          2007                                    2008
             -40
                                                                                                                          -40
                             % change on same month in previous
             -60             year
                             % change on the 2002-2006 average                                                            -60
                             for the equivalent month
             -80                                                                                                          -80
                                                           Month, year                                                                                                                              Month, year
Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders, 2008.                                                           Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders, 2008.


                          Change in Gross Domestic Product: chained volume measures: Seasonally                                                                                     Confidence - profitability
                                                        adjusted
                                                                                                                          60
                   2.0
                                                                                                                          50

                   1.5                                                                                                    40
             Change on previous quarter (%)




                                                                                                                          30




                                                                                                     Percentage balance
                   1.0
                                                                                                                          20
                   0.5                                                                                                    10
                                                                                                                           0
                   0.0
                                                                                                                                1Q90

                                                                                                                                        1Q91

                                                                                                                                                 1Q92

                                                                                                                                                        1Q93

                                                                                                                                                               1Q94

                                                                                                                                                                      1Q95

                                                                                                                                                                             1Q96

                                                                                                                                                                                      1Q97

                                                                                                                                                                                             1Q98

                                                                                                                                                                                                      1Q99

                                                                                                                                                                                                             1Q00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Q101

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Q102

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Q103

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Q104

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Q105

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Q106

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Q107

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Q108
                                                                                                                          -10
                  1 9 Q1

                  1 9 Q1

                  1 9 Q1

                  1 9 Q1

                  1 9 Q1

                  1 9 Q1

                  1 9 Q1

                  1 9 Q1

                  1 9 Q1

                  2 0 Q1

                  2 0 Q1

                  2 0 Q1

                  2 0 Q1

                  2 0 Q1

                  2 0 Q1

                  2 0 Q1

                  2 0 Q1

                  2 0 Q1

                          1
                        Q




                   -0.5
                     90

                     91

                     92

                     93

                     94

                     95

                     96

                     97

                     98

                     99

                     00

                     01

                     02

                     03

                     04

                     05

                     06

                     07

                     08




                                                                                                                          -20
                  19




                   -1.0                                                                                                   -30
                                                                                                                                                 Service              Manufacturing
                                                                                                                          -40
                   -1.5
                                                                                                                          -50
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Quarter
                   -2.0                                                                                                                                                                                    Note: Percentage balance indicates the difference
                                                                Quarter                                                                                                                               between the percentage of respondents giving a positive
Source: Office for National Statistics, 2008.                                                        Source: British Chambers of Commerce, 2008.                                                             response, and the percentage giving a negative
                                                                                                       Number                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Number
                                                                                                                               Thousands                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Thousands




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        70
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            80




                                                                            0
                                                                                     100
                                                                                                 200
                                                                                                            300
                                                                                                                         400
                                                                                                                                     500
                                                                                                                                                                               600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1969
                                                                 H1 1994                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1970
                                                                 H2 1994                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1971
                                                                 H1 1995                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1972
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1973
                                                                 H2 1995                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1974
                                                                 H1 1996                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1975
                                                                 H2 1996                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1976
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1977
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Economic Indicators




                                                                 H1 1997                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1978
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          mortgages
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          possession




                                                                 H2 1997                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1979
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1980
                                                                 H1 1998                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1981
                                                                 H2 1998                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1982
                                                                 H1 1999                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1983
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Properties taken into




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1984




Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders, 2008.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders, 2008.
                                                                 H2 1999
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Possessions as % of all




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1985
                                                                 H1 2000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1986
                                                                 H2 2000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1987
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1988




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Time
                                                                 H1 2001                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1989




                                                       Time
                                                                 H2 2001                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1990
                                                                 H1 2002                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1991
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1992
                                                                 H2 2002                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1993
                                                                 H1 2003                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1994




                                                                                                                                                                     Arrears
                                                                 H2 2003                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1995
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1996
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mortgage reposessions, UK (annual)




                                                                 H1 2004                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1997
                                                                 H2 2004                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1998
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1999
                                                                 H1 2005                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2000
                                                                 H2 2005                                                                                                             Mortgages more than 3 months in arrears, UK, long-series                                                             2001
                                                                 H1 2006                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2003
                                                                 H2 2006                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2004

                                                                                                                                     Arrears as % of all mortgages
                                                                 H1 2007                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2005
                                                                 H2 2007                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2007
                                                                 H1 2008




                                                                            0
                                                                                     1
                                                                                                 2
                                                                                                            3
                                                                                                                         4
                                                                                                                                     5
                                                                                                                                                                               6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1.6




                                                                                                % of all mortgages                                                                                                                                                                                                                          % of all mortgages



                                                                                                  $/Barrel - Oil                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Number
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Thousands




                                                                           0
                                                                                20
                                                                                            40
                                                                                                       60
                                                                                                                  80
                                                                                                                             100
                                                                                                                                                120
                                                                                                                                                                               140
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             35
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       40
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            45




                                                                 Oct-05
                                                                 Nov-05                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 1990
                                                                 Dec-05                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H2 1990
                                                                 Jan-06                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 1991
                                                                 Feb-06                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H2 1991
                                                                 Mar-06                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 1992
                                                                 Apr-06                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H2 1992
                                                                   May-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 1993
                                                                 Jun-06                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H2 1993
                                                                                                                                   Diesel




                                                                  Jul-06                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  H1 1994
                                                                                                                                   Crude Oil




                                                                 Aug-06
                                                                                                                                   Unleaded




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          H2 1994
                                                                 Sep-06                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 1995
                                                                 Oct-06                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H2 1995
                                                                 Nov-06
                                                                 Dec-06                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 1996
                                                                 Jan-07                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H2 1996
                                                                 Feb-07                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 1997
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders, 2008.




                                                                 Mar-07                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H2 1997
                                                                 Apr-07                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 1998
Source: Energy Information Administration, 2008.




                                                                   May-                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H2 1998
                                                                 Jun-07                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 1999
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Time




                                                                  Jul-07                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  H2 1999
                                                   Month, year




                                                                 Aug-07                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 2000
                                                                 Sep-07                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H2 2000
                                                                 Oct-07                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 2001
                                                                 Nov-07                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H2 2001
                                                                 Dec-07                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 2002
                                                                 Jan-08
                                                                                                                                                                                          Oil, Unleaded and Diesel Prices




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          H2 2002
                                                                 Feb-08                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 2003
                                                                 Mar-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mortgage reposessions, UK (half yearly)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          H2 2003
                                                                 Apr-08                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 2004
                                                                   May-
                                                                 Jun-08                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H2 2004
                                                                  Jul-08                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  H1 2005
                                                                 Aug-08                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H2 2005
                                                                 Sep-08                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Properties taken into possession




                                                                 Oct-08                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H2 2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Possessions as % of all mortgages




                                                                 Nov-08                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 2007
                                                                 Dec-08                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H2 2007
                                                                 Jan-09                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 2008
                                                                           60
                                                                                70
                                                                                           80
                                                                                                  90
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0.3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       0.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            0.9




                                                                                                            100
                                                                                                                       110
                                                                                                                               120
                                                                                                                                                          130
                                                                                                                                                                               140




                                                                                     p/litre - Unleaded and Diesel                                                                                                                                                                                                                           % of all mortgages
Economic Indicators




                                                Mortgages more than 3 months in arrears, last 3 years
                                180                                                                                     1.8

                    Thousands
                                                Arrears
                                160                                                                                     1.6
                                                Arrears as % of all mortgages
                                140                                                                                     1.4




                                                                                                                              % of all mortgages
                                120                                                                                     1.2
           Number




                                100                                                                                     1.0

                                80                                                                                      0.8

                                60                                                                                      0.6

                                40                                                                                      0.4

                                20                                                                                      0.2

                                 0                                                                                      0.0
                                      H1 2005




                                                 H2 2005




                                                              H1 2006




                                                                          H2 2006




                                                                                       H1 2007




                                                                                                    H2 2007




                                                                                                              H1 2008
                                                                         Time
           Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders, 2008.
Connections to Opportunities – Addressing Worklessness

Introduction
Advantage West Midlands (AWM), the Regional Development Agency, has
developed a major programme to make a contribution to addressing the issue
of economic exclusion and to meeting the challenge of the West Midlands
output gap of £10 billion. The Agency intends to work with local intermediary
bodies that have contact with people who are classed as being long term
unemployed or workless, to help get people on the path to employment.

This is envisaged as a region wide programme that is focussed on innovative,
bottom up approaches to addressing the issue, avoiding duplication with
existing provision, whilst dovetailing with local circumstances.

The programme has been specifically developed to contribute to fill the gaps
in the activities on the edges of the mainstream provision and complement the
efforts by Local Strategic Partnerships (LSPs) and their partners to tackle the
issues of economic exclusion caused by Worklessness. The programme will
be targeted at those furthest from the labour market who historically have
struggled to move towards employment.

Aim and Objectives
The objectives of the programme are;
   • To integrate with and add to existing provision
   • To work with the upper tier LSPs to support local initiatives to tackle
      Worklessness
   • To support innovative approaches to tackling Worklessness by
      supporting third sector, local and community groups
   • To reduce economic exclusion of individuals in key target groups within
      the region by helping them towards employment
   • To identify critical success and failure factors in the activities funded,
      analysing the approaches undertaken seeking replicable approaches
      for future interventions

Beneficiaries

The principal focii of the overall programme is on:

       •   Long term workless
       •   Disabled people and those with health conditions
       •   Lone parents
       •   Ethnic minorities
       •   Older people (over 50) who are suffering from economic exclusion
       •   People with low or no qualifications

However, if local circumstance can evidence and justify focus on other groups
or a different targeting approach this will be assessed on its merits.
AWM has allocated £12.5m under this programme for the region of which
Worcestershire has been allocated £880,000 over next three years.

Impact

AWM would like to achieve following outcomes:

   •   Strong well, resourced and effective third sector, local and community
       groups tackling Worklessness in the region
   •   Individuals moving towards employment and off benefits
   •   Alternative thinking on tackling Worklessness emerging for policy
       makers and programme delivery in the region and beyond

Worcestershire Update

A consultation event with stakeholders, arranged by Worcestershire County
Council, was held at Worcester University on 16th January 2009. The main
purposes of the event were
   • To provide information and gain feedback from Worcestershire’s
      Stakeholders on the proposed ‘Connections to Opportunities’ funding.
   • Discuss potential delivery arrangements of the programme in
      Worcestershire.

A total of 41 people attended the event. The attendees represented a wide
range of organisations – including Advantage West Midlands, District
Councils, Jobcentre Plus, Learning & Skills Council, Third Sector
organisations Business in the Community and various departments of
Worcestershire County Council. The participants showed great enthusiasm
and commitment to be part of the programme.

Next Steps

Advantage West Midlands will issue the detailed guidance for the programme
delivery. It is anticipated that the delivery of the programme will start by the
middle of this year.

Contact Details:

For further information please contact:

Aamir Kayani
Strategy & Policy Officer
Worcestershire County Council
County Hall, Spetchley Road
Worcester
WR5 2NP
Email: Akayani@worcestershire.gov.uk
Ph No: 01905 766 816

								
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