Herpes Market to 2018 - Genericization Compels Competitors Seeking Differentiation to Adopt Novel Drug Delivery Technologies

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					 Herpes Market to 2018 - Genericization Compels Competitors
     Seeking Differentiation to Adopt Novel Drug Delivery
                         Technologies
 Reference Code: GBIHC184MR                                                                                               Publication Date: April 2012


                                   GBI Research finds that the global herpes market is an attractive one. The market is expected to
                                   witness growth during the forecast period and to provide good opportunities for investors. The high
                                   growth that is expected in the market is attributed to a number of factors, including increasing
                                   awareness about herpes infections, and a growth in the diseased population. Many promising
                                   therapies, especially for Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections, are expected to be launched during the
                                   forecast period. The market is currently generic in nature, with few first in class molecules, and the
                                   current therapies provide only symptomatic treatment of infections - infections, once treated, can
                                   recur. The market, therefore, contains a significant unmet need, which needs to be resolved.
                                   Global Herpes Market is Forecast to Grow at CAGR of 10.1%, Due to Growth in Diseased
Global herpes market is            Population
estimated to be $4.2
billion in 2010, and is             Herpes Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($bn), 2004-2018
projected to grow at a
CAGR of 10.1% and                                             10
reach $9.1 billion by 2018
                                                              9                              CAGR(2010-2018): 10.1%

                                                              8

                                                              7
                                             Revenues ($bn)




                                                              6

                                                              5

                                                              4    CAGR(2004-2010): 12.5%


                                                              3

                                                              2

                                                              1

                                                              0
                                                                         2004                        2010                         2018


                                    Source: GBI Research, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Eurosurveillance




                                   The value of the global herpes market is estimated to have been approximately $4.2 billion in 2010,
                                   and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.1% until reaching $9.1 billion by 2018. The market has
                                   limited scope for growth due to the presence of generic products and a lack of innovation in the
                                   pipeline products. The current treatment options serve the market needs, providing symptomatic
                                   treatment for herpes simplex and herpes zoster infections. There is current unmet need in the
                                   market for safe therapeutics, particularly for CMV infections. There are nine molecules in Phase III
                                   of clinical development, being developed for various herpes infections. The diseased population is
                                   expected to grow to approximately 158.6 million by 2018. The growth in immunosuppressed
                                   patients and transplant recipients will be the driver for this market. The herpes market has strong
                                   competition from generics.




Herpes Market to 2018 - Genericization Compels Competitors                                                             GBIHC184MR /Published APR 2012
Seeking Differentiation to Adopt Novel Drug Delivery                                                                                                 Page 1
Technologies                                                                      © GBI Research. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied,
                                                                                                                  reproduced, shared or resold in any form
                                   Herpes Therapeutics Market is Forecast to Grow at a CAGR of 11.2%, Despite Weak Pipeline
                                   and Presence of Generics in the Market
                                   The herpes therapeutics market (herpes simplex and herpes zoster infections market) is forecast to
                                   grow at a CAGR of 11.2% during the forecast period 2010-2018. The herpes therapeutics market
                                   has low unmet needs in terms of both efficacy and safety - the efficacy of the present therapeutics
                                   ranges from moderate to strong, with drugs such as Zovirax having significantly strong efficacy
                                   profiles. Therapeutic interventions for herpes simplex are limited to oral formulations. The herpes
                                   therapeutics market is generic and there are many brands available with low prices. There are few
                                   first-in-class molecules present in the herpes therapeutics pipeline. Of these few, BA-021 is filed in
                                   the US for herpes simplex infections and it is expected to launch soon. In 2010, the diseased
                                   population of herpes simplex was estimated to be 120.3 million. The major driver of the market is
                                   the increase in diseased population, while a lack of awareness and social stigma are considered to
                                   be restraints on the herpes therapeutics market. Zostavax is the only vaccine approved in the US
                                   for the prophylactic treatment of herpes zoster infections. The launch of vaccine candidates such
                                   as GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals’ GSK1437173A vaccine and V212 from Merck & Co. is expected in
                                   the coming years for herpes zoster infections
                                   Launch of New Treatment Options Can Satisfy Current Unmet Needs of CMV Infections
                                   Market
                                   The global CMV infection market was valued at $0.7 billion in 2010. The emergence of novel
                                   therapies, which concentrate on increased safety, has combined with increasing patient awareness
                                   and compliance to stimulate the growth of this market. The majority of pipeline products are
                                   biologics, contrary to the current marketed products, which are small molecules. The growth of the
                                   market can be attributed to the increasing number of AIDS/HIV patients, and Hematopoietic Stem
                                   Cell Transplantation (HSCT) and solid organ transplant recipients, all of which experience
                                   immunosuppression. The toxicity of the antiviral drugs used for the treatment of congenital CMV
                                   represents an unmet need in the existing treatment. Due to the long treatment duration of the
                                   antiviral drugs currently used in for the pre-emptive or prophylactic treatment of CMV infections in
                                   HSCT or SOT recipients, the chances of developing drug-related toxicity from that treatment is
                                   relatively high. Patients’ development of resistance to current antiviral therapy is also a limitation for
                                   growth of this market. New treatment options, which are currently in Phase III, such as TransVax
                                   and Adoptive Cellular Therapy, are expected to satisfy the unmet needs of the market.




Herpes Market to 2018 - Genericization Compels Competitors                                                 GBIHC184MR /Published APR 2012
Seeking Differentiation to Adopt Novel Drug Delivery                                                                                     Page 2
Technologies                                                          © GBI Research. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied,
                                                                                                      reproduced, shared or resold in any form
                                   1         Table of Contents
                                   1   Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ 3
                                       1.1    List of Tables..................................................................................................................... 5
                                       1.2    List of Figures ................................................................................................................... 6
                                   2   Herpes Market to 2018 - Introduction .......................................................................................... 7
                                       2.1    GBI Research Report Guidance ....................................................................................... 7
                                   3   Herpes Market to 2018 - Market Overview .................................................................................. 8
                                       3.1    Introduction to Herpes Virus.............................................................................................. 8
                                          3.1.1    Types of Herpes Virus ............................................................................................... 8
                                          3.1.2    Herpes Simplex Infections ......................................................................................... 8
                                          3.1.3    Herpes Zoster Infections ........................................................................................... 8
                                          3.1.4    Cytomegalovirus Infections........................................................................................ 9
                                       3.2    Introduction to Herpes Market ......................................................................................... 10
                                          3.2.1    Revenue .................................................................................................................. 10
                                          3.2.2    Annual Cost of Treatment ($) .................................................................................. 11
                                          3.2.3    Treatment Usage Pattern ........................................................................................ 12
                                   4   Herpes Market to 2018 - Geographical Landscape ................................................................... 14
                                       4.1    Geographical Segmentation............................................................................................ 14
                                       4.2    The US ............................................................................................................................ 16
                                          4.2.1    Revenue .................................................................................................................. 16
                                          4.2.2    Treatment Usage Pattern ........................................................................................ 17
                                       4.3    Top Five Countries of Europe ......................................................................................... 19
                                          4.3.1    Revenue .................................................................................................................. 19
                                          4.3.2    Treatment Usage Pattern ........................................................................................ 22
                                       4.4    Japan .............................................................................................................................. 24
                                          4.4.1    Revenue .................................................................................................................. 24
                                          4.4.2    Treatment Usage Pattern ........................................................................................ 25
                                   5   Herpes Market to 2018 - Therapeutic Landscape...................................................................... 27
                                       5.1    Global Herpes Therapeutics Market ............................................................................... 27
                                          5.1.1    Introduction Herpes Simplex Infection ..................................................................... 27
                                          5.1.2    Introduction to Herpes Zoster Infection.................................................................... 28
                                          5.1.3    Revenue .................................................................................................................. 29
                                          5.1.4    Annual Cost of Treatment........................................................................................ 33
                                          5.1.5    Treatment Usage Pattern ........................................................................................ 34
                                          5.1.6    Drivers and Restraints for the Herpes Therapeutics Market .................................... 36
                                          5.1.7    Drivers and Restraints for the Herpes Simplex Market ............................................ 36
                                       5.2    Global Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market ................................................................ 37
                                          5.2.1    Introduction .............................................................................................................. 37
                                          5.2.2    Revenue .................................................................................................................. 38
                                          5.2.3    Branded-Generic Share ........................................................................................... 41
                                          5.2.4    Annual Cost of Treatment........................................................................................ 42
                                          5.2.5    Treatment Usage Pattern ........................................................................................ 43
                                          5.2.6    Drivers and Restraints for the CMV Infections Market ............................................. 45
                                   6   Herpes Market to 2018 - Pipeline Analysis ................................................................................ 46
                                       6.1    Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 46
                                       6.2    Research and Development Pipeline by Indication ......................................................... 46
                                       6.3    Profiles of Promising Molecules in the Herpes Therapeutics Market .............................. 52
                                          6.3.1    BA-021 .................................................................................................................... 52
                                          6.3.2    NB-001 .................................................................................................................... 52
                                          6.3.3    ARYS-01 ................................................................................................................. 54
                                          6.3.4    GSK 1437173A........................................................................................................ 54
                                          6.3.5    V212 ........................................................................................................................ 55
                                          6.3.6    TransVax ................................................................................................................. 55
                                          6.3.7    Adoptive Cellular Therapy (CMV Specific T-Cells) .................................................. 56


Herpes Market to 2018 - Genericization Compels Competitors                                                              GBIHC184MR /Published APR 2012
Seeking Differentiation to Adopt Novel Drug Delivery                                                                                                  Page 3
Technologies                                                                       © GBI Research. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied,
                                                                                                                   reproduced, shared or resold in any form
                                   7 Herpes Market to 2018 - Competitive Landscape...................................................................... 57
                                     7.1    Competitive Profiling ....................................................................................................... 57
                                        7.1.1    GlaxoSmithKline ...................................................................................................... 57
                                        7.1.2    Novartis AG ............................................................................................................. 58
                                        7.1.3    Merck ....................................................................................................................... 59
                                        7.1.4    Roche ...................................................................................................................... 60
                                   8 Herpes Market to 2018 - Strategic Consolidations .................................................................... 62
                                     8.1    Overview ......................................................................................................................... 62
                                        8.1.1    Deals by Type of Agreement ................................................................................... 62
                                        8.1.2    Deals by Year .......................................................................................................... 63
                                        8.1.3    Deals by Geography ................................................................................................ 64
                                        8.1.4    Profiling of Major Deals, 2007-2011 ........................................................................ 65
                                   9 Herpes Market to 2018 - Appendix ............................................................................................ 66
                                     9.1    Market Definitions ........................................................................................................... 66
                                     9.2    Abbreviations .................................................................................................................. 66
                                     9.3    Research Methodology ................................................................................................... 66
                                        9.3.1    Coverage ................................................................................................................. 67
                                        9.3.2    Secondary Research ............................................................................................... 67
                                        9.3.3    Primary Research .................................................................................................... 67
                                        9.3.4    Therapeutic Landscape ........................................................................................... 68
                                        9.3.5    Geographical Landscape......................................................................................... 71
                                        9.3.6    Pipeline Analysis ..................................................................................................... 71
                                        9.3.7    Competitive Landscape ........................................................................................... 71
                                        9.3.8    Expert Panel Validation ........................................................................................... 71
                                     9.4    Contact Us ...................................................................................................................... 71
                                     9.5    Disclaimer ....................................................................................................................... 71
                                     9.6    Sources ........................................................................................................................... 72




Herpes Market to 2018 - Genericization Compels Competitors                                                              GBIHC184MR /Published APR 2012
Seeking Differentiation to Adopt Novel Drug Delivery                                                                                                  Page 4
Technologies                                                                       © GBI Research. This report is a licensed product and is not to be copied,
                                                                                                                   reproduced, shared or resold in any form
                                   1.1    List of Tables
                                   Table 1:    Herpes Market, Global, Revenues ($bn), 2004-2010 ..................................................... 10
                                   Table 2:    Herpes Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($bn), 2010-2018 ...................................... 10
                                   Table 3:     Herpes Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2004-2010 ............................... 11
                                   Table 4:    Herpes Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2010-2018 ................................ 11
                                   Table 5:    Herpes Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2010 ....................... 12
                                   Table 6:    Herpes Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2010-2018 ....................... 12
                                   Table 7:    Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenues by Geography ($m), 2004-2010 ......... 14
                                   Table 8:    Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts by Geography ($m), 2010-
                                               2018 ............................................................................................................................... 15
                                   Table 9:    Herpes Market, The US, Revenues ($m), 2004-2010 .................................................... 16
                                   Table 10:   Herpes Market, The US, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2018 ..................................... 16
                                   Table 11:   Herpes Market, The US, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2010 ..................... 17
                                   Table 12:   Herpes Market, The US, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2010-2018 ..................... 18
                                   Table 13:    Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenues ($m), 2004-2010 ................ 19
                                   Table 14:   Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2018... 19
                                   Table 15:   Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenues ($m), 2004-2010 ................. 20
                                   Table 16:   Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2018... 21
                                   Table 17:   Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions),
                                               2004-2010 ...................................................................................................................... 22
                                   Table 18:   Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions),
                                               2010-2018 ...................................................................................................................... 23
                                   Table 19:   Herpes Market, Japan, Revenues ($m), 2004-2010 ...................................................... 24
                                   Table 20:   Herpes Market, Japan, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2018 ....................................... 24
                                   Table 21:   Herpes Market, Japan, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2010 ....................... 25
                                   Table 22:   Herpes Market, Japan, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2010-2018 ....................... 25
                                   Table 23:   Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenues ($bn), 2004-2010 ............................... 29
                                   Table 24:   Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($bn), 2010-2018 ................ 29
                                   Table 25:   Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenues by Geography ($m), 2004-2010 ......... 30
                                   Table 26:   Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts by Geography ($m), 2010-
                                               2018 ............................................................................................................................... 31
                                   Table 27:   Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2004-2010 .......... 33
                                   Table 28:    Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Cost of 
				
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Description: Herpes Market to 2018 - Genericization Compels Competitors Seeking Differentiation to Adopt Novel Drug Delivery Technologies, finds that the global herpes market is an attractive one, and is expected to witness growth during the forecast period and to provide good opportunities for investors. The expected high growth is attributed to increasing awareness regarding herpes infections and a growth in the diseased population. Many promising therapies, especially for Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections, are expected to launch during the forecast period. The market is currently generic in nature, with few first-in-class molecules. The current therapies provide only symptomatic treatment of infections, meaning that infection can lay dormant in patients, recurring in the future. This is unmet need of the market, which needs to be resolved.
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