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					The Third Wave
- Revisited!
David L. Pells
PMI Fellow, President iWorld Projects & Systems, Inc. Managing Editor, www.pmforum.org

International Seminar PMI Sao Paulo Chapter October 2006

How modern Project Management reflects current trends in the World & Why the future of PM is so Bright!
Pells – 3rd Wave Revisited PMI-São Paulo - 4 October 2006

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Summary of Main Points
Significant current trends were predicted by Alvin Toffler in his book The 3rd Wave Recent trends in PM reflect 3rd Wave trends PM provides solutions for 3rd Wave enterprises The 3rd Wave leads to a positive future for PM PM will continue to grow & expand hand in hand with other 3rd Wave developments & Trends
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Alvin Toffler - Futurist
American writer b. 1928 Focused on the impact of Technology on Society Books: Future Shock, The Third Wave, Powershift, & War and Anti-War Predicted the Info Age
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Future Shock – pub. 1970
Too much change in too short a period of time Identified an industrial revolution underway Accelerating rate of social & technological change First identified “information overload”
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The Third Wave – pub. 1980
Defined 3 waves: agrarian, industrial, post-industrial 2nd wave featured mass production, mass distribution, mass entertainment, WMD, everything standardized and centralized 3rd wave = the Information Age 3rd wave characterized by personalization, customization, informationalization, democratization & humanization of everything

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Third Wave Trends Are Now Visible!
Shift from mass manufacturing to mass customization Shift from manufacturing to information based economies Rise of Knowledge & Information as basis for power Emergence of disruptive technologies, such as global communications, nanotechnology, cloning, bio & genetic engineering, etc. “Wave” conflicts, leading to turmoil in China, India, Middle East & the Islamic world (clashes of fundamentalist, traditional & secular interests) Rise of non-governmental & supra national entities Rejection of standardization & Centralization More democracy & self determination

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Relationship of Modern PM to Third Wave Trends
2nd wave industrialization = mass production = “operations” 3rd wave customization = projects 3rd wave informationalization = IT projects 3rd wave organizations need PM
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Example 1 – Informationalization
Massive investments in IS/IT worldwide IT projects highly visible & strategic Increased demand for PM in IT & high tech Rise of Portfolio PM Economies transformed
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Example 2 – Global Economy
Global competition Increased emphasis on productivity Increased use of global teams Increased use of IT Increased use of PM
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Example 3 – Globalization of Communications
Key to competitiveness Facilitates everything Accelerating 3rd wave trends Critical on global projects Critical for successful PM

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Example 4 – Mass Customization
Customized design = custom projects More Projects & PM in manufacturing industries More PM, EPM & PPM worldwide Now emphasized in education
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Example 5 – Just in Time Supplies
Customization requires J-I-T supplies & suppliers IT & Global communications enable J-I-T supply chains Supply chains become projectoriented (contracts = projects) Contracts, procurement & PM skills critical for all enterprises
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Example 6 – Virtual Projects = Virtual Teams – on a global basis
Globalization = global project teams Global communications = virtual teams Need for multi-cultural PM increases Within & between enterprises worldwide Orgs like PMI are thriving

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Example 7 – Cross Border Migration
Globalization leads to global migration of resources Technology workers flow to 3rd wave economies Labor intensive projects in 1st & 2nd wave economies Resources follow projects & project-oriented industries around the world

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PM Trends match 3rd Wave Trends
Informationalization projects in all enterprises in all industries, IT projects rapidly increasing worldwide More Projects in all industries worldwide Global project teams, global communications, global resource migrations, global Project management Increased emphasis on productivity, time efficiencies & global competition

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Why the Future of PM is so Bright!
The 3rd Wave Transformation Continues Information age will continue to grow – leading to even more IT – PM & portfolio PM Mass customization & democratization lead to more Projects & PM Globalization leads to more global projects, global teams, & global PM Need for more & better PM will increase & will permeate all elements of industry & society

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What to realize & do!
Understand & embrace global trends – more projects and more PM, especially IT Understand the importance of PM in today’s more project-oriented world Understand PM as a “strategic” resource & capability in the global economy.
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Warning – Third Wave Predicts Serious Conflicts!
Conflicts between 1st, 2nd & 3rd Waves We see this now in the Middle East – this is the real source of Terrorism! Projects & PM overlap the waves, and will continue to increase as the need for global solutions increases
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Conclusions
Third wave trends will continue, with global impact increasing Project management provides organizations and professionals with methods, models and tools to succeed in this evolving 3rd wave world Conflicts between waves will also continue, with the world in turmoil for many decades

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The Future of Project Management
The need for professional PM will continue to increase worldwide PM skills & capabilities will be recognized as critical for survival The strategic value of PM will increase in mature organizations & economies New Models are needed for PM in unstable environments full of chaos, conflicts & “emergency” conditions
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Thank you!
David L. Pells
PMI Fellow President, iWorld Projects & Systems, Inc. Managing Editor, PM World Today & www.pmforum.org Email: editor@pmforum.org

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