The People Have Spoken
Comparing Online and Offline Opinions of The Jay Leno Show
A study from Empower MediaMarketing
empowermm.com
The People Have Spoken Comparing Online and Offline Opinions of The Jay Leno Show
by: Kirby Thornton, Empower MediaMarketing Director of Consumer Insights BACKGROUND On Monday, September 14, 2009, NBC debuted The Jay Leno Show in its 10:00 pm Eastern primetime slot. A bold programming move to bring the talk show format into primetime television as well as reducing its cost for primetime programming. The show was preceded by a major promotion to attract viewers and gain awareness for the show. The promotions seemed to have worked. First night ratings for the show were the best for NBC in the timeslot since November 2008. The show created a great deal of interest. Television reviewers were quick to dismiss the new show as lightweight and offering few real differences from The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, Leno’s former show that ended its 17 year run in May. The new show’s debut generated huge buzz among social media outlets as thousands of social media pundits joined in the discussion. How would the sentiments expressed by traditional national media outlets and social media compare to American public opinion? To discover this, Empower MediaMarketing commissioned a public opinion study of 1,000 adults 18 and older and asked them if they were aware of the show, if they watched it during the first week and if they thought they would watch the show in the future. Respondents viewing the show were also asked to give the show a grade of A through F based on what they had seen the first week. Finally, those viewing the show were asked if they had also been regular viewers of Leno’s former late night talk show, The Tonight Show with Jay Leno. In addition to commissioning a public opinion study, Empower utilized ChatterWatchsm, its proprietary social media analysis tool, to identify chatter about The Jay Leno Show on blogs, boards and Twitter. STUDY HIGHLIGHTS Grading the first week About three-in-four (74 percent) viewers of The Jay Leno Show during its debut week give it a grade of A or B. One-in-four (26 percent) adult viewers give Jay an A while another 48 percent rate the show a respectable B. Not everyone agrees, however. About one-in five viewers (18 percent) say the show was not good, but still passed it with a C, while only about 7 percent of viewers rate the show a failing grade of D or F.
What Grade Would You Give The Jay Leno Show?
A (Great) B (Good) C (Not good but still passing) D (Needs substantial improvement) F (Hard to watch) 0 26% 48% 18% 6% 1% 10 20 30 40 50 60
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The People Have Spoken: Comparing Online and Offline Opinions of The Jay Leno Show
Show Awareness Love Jay or hate Jay, the multimillion dollar promotional efforts by NBC to launch the program seem to have worked. Almost seventy percent (69 percent) of adults said they were aware of The Jay Leno Show debuting last week during primetime. Awareness was lowest among adults under 25 (46 percent) and highest among adults 55 or older who had 80 percent awareness of the show.
Awareness of The Jay Leno Show Among Total Adults And By Age Category
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Total Age - 24 & under Age - 25 - 34 Age - 35 - 44 Age - 45 - 54 Age - 55+ 5% 26% 46% 38% 29% 27% 27% 17% 5% 5% 3% 3% Aware Not Aware 69% 66%
80% 68%
71%
16%
Not Sure
High levels of awareness for older adults did not necessarily translate into a good grade as younger adults were more likely to give the show higher marks than older adults. Almost four-in-ten viewers ages 25 to 44 gave the program an A, while less than 20 percent gave the program a C, D or F. Older adults were harder on the program with only 15 percent of adults 55 or older giving The Jay Leno Show an A, and almost 40 percent giving the program a grade of C or below; double the negative scores among 25 to 44 year olds.
Grading Leno - Total Viewers compared to Older Viewers
A (Great) B (Good) C (Not good but still passing) D (Needs substantial improvement) F (Hard to watch) 0% 10% 6% 18% 26% 15% 26% 46% 48% Viewers 55+ Total Viewers
2% 1%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
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The People Have Spoken: Comparing Online and Offline Opinions of The Jay Leno Show
MAINSTREAM MEDIA REVIEWS The premiere episode, highlighted by an interview with controversial rapper Kanye West propelled ratings for the show. While Leno scored big in the ratings for his premiere, mainstream press critics were not so kind. Reviews in The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times and USA Today all panned the show; many calling it a rehashed version of Leno’s The Tonight Show. The critic’s reactions to the program didn’t seem to bother most viewers, most of whom were already familiar with the host and format from his 17 years on The Tonight Show. About 67 percent of Leno’s viewers said they watched him at least some of the time on his late night program. However, about a third of those watching Leno in primetime during his first week who said they never watched Leno regularly on late night. This indicates that, at least for the debut week, new viewers were willing to kick Jay’s tires. Would these new viewers enjoy what they saw? Tonight Show Viewing There were some differences between regular vs. non-regular Tonight Show viewers. Non-regular viewers included those saying they never watched the show and those who said they only watched a ‘few times during the year’. Those saying they did not regularly watch The Tonight Show with Jay Leno were generally positive toward the new show. About half (49 percent) gave it a B. However, these viewers were not as enthusiastic about the show, with only about one-in-ten rating it an A compared to 35 percent of Tonight Show with Jay Leno viewers. This suggests that the show was successful, but only moderately so, in winning over new viewers who did not watch Jay in his late night timeslot.
Grading Jay Leno by Tonight Show Viewing Habits
Regular Viewers A (Great) B (Good) C (Not good but still passing) Non-regular Viewers 35% 48% 49%
9%
12%
5% 1% 2%
30%
D (Needs substantial improvement)
F (Hard to watch)
10%
It should not be a surprise that television critics are critical of Leno. Leno has never been a critical favorite. The show was felt by many to be overhyped, a point Leno had fun with in one of the show’s segments. Nor was it a dramatic departure from the old Tonight Show format that many had hoped. And after all, the move by NBC was largely a cost-cutting strategy with Leno himself openly discussing that the cost to NBC to produce a week’s worth of his show was the equivalent of only one episode of a dramatic series. Since five nights of Leno in primetime means five less new series for critics to review it
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The People Have Spoken: Comparing Online and Offline Opinions of The Jay Leno Show
may be understandable that Leno is not a critic favorite. So, if critics don’t like The Jay Leno Show, would his reviews in social media be any kinder? REVIEW OF SOCIAL MEDIA MESSAGES Twitter Messages (Tweets) To better understand this, Empower reviewed a sample of 500 tweets mentioning Leno during the first week of his show. What insight can be gained 140 characters at a time?
Tweet Categories
Reviews 8% Statements 9%
Comedy Segments 14%
Informational 25%
Guests 44%
Almost 45 percent of Twitter messages discussed guests on Leno and Kanye West’s interview alone accounted for half of these tweets. Suffice to say, Kanye’s apology to Taylor Swift had the Twitter community all abuzz! Also, Halle Berry denying pregnancy rumors (along with her short dress) had the tweets flying as well. Drew Barrymore, Michael Moore, Miley Cyrus and Tom Cruise were also worthy of tweet mentions throughout the first week but Mr. West and Ms. Berry really had them talking. Another quarter of tweets were informational in tone. Many of these were from media and marketing mavens discussing the first few overnight ratings and pontificating about the long-term future of the show. Others were simply very general in tone, with twitter’ers letting their followers know that they were watching Leno at that moment. Toward the end of the week, a number of tweets (about 18 percent of the total tweets) discussed various comedy segments on the show. A bit on ACORN during Thursday’s show touched many funny bones and the ‘Ford Green Car Challenge’ race was a favorite among many environmentalists who retweeted links to Drew Barrymore’s initial drive around the track in Ford’s new electric vehicle. Surprisingly, less than two-out-ten tweets (18 percent) offered an opinion of the show. Opinions of Leno were split into two groups; statements and reviews. Statements were comments about Leno in general, but not a mention of the show. Examples of statements include such insights as ‘I’m so happy Leno is coming on tonight’. Reviews on the other hand were the ‘gold standard’ of tweets suggesting that someone actually saw the show and offered a brief evaluation of it. Out of 88 statements and reviews, only about a quarter of tweets were positive, while three-quarters of reviews were negative. However,
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The People Have Spoken: Comparing Online and Offline Opinions of The Jay Leno Show
reviews tended to be a little more kind to the show. About a third of review tweets were positive, while two-thirds were negative in their sentiment. Blog Posts and Board Messages A similar trend emerged with blog and message board postings. Most bloggers were focused on the performances of Leno’s guests (again with Kanye West leading the way in mentions), but few offered their own take on the show overall. Among the few blogs and message posts that did offer a review of the show, about 80 percent were negative. The remaining 20 percent were generally complimentary of the first week’s guests and a few noted that the show provided another viewing alternative to network dramas occupying the time slot.
Social Media Sentiment
Positive 76% Negative 81%
24%
18%
Tweets
Blogs & Boards
FUTURE VIEWING HABITS So while mainstream press critics were harsh and tweet sentiment ran mostly negative during the first week, the only question that matters is will viewers’ continue to watch the show. The initial findings on this are positive. Among adults viewing the show during its debut week, 65 percent say they expect to watch the show at least twice a week in the future, while 27 percent of viewers say they expect to watch four or more shows a week. Only 6 percent of viewers say they are done and won’t watch anymore shows. Of course, what viewers expect to do and what they actually will do are often two separate issues. The success of The Jay Leno Show will be determined not this week or the next but over the coming year. However, based on this initial study, most debut week viewers do see themselves settling into a routine that includes watching the show several times each week. CONCLUSION While few argue that The Jay Leno Show is groundbreaking television, it can be said that NBC’s decision to anchor a talk show in prime time leading into its affiliates’ late local news is a bold programming move. It saves the network millions of dollars in the short run and provides new programming 46 weeks a year. Whether it will be successful long-term depends of course on whether or not viewers continue to watch, on strong advertiser support for the program, and in the reaction of local affiliates who now
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The People Have Spoken: Comparing Online and Offline Opinions of The Jay Leno Show
depend on The Jay Leno Show to bring viewers into their late local news broadcasts. Michele Toller, Empower Director of National Broadcast says, “the move by NBC to air The Jay Leno Show five nights a week is more about minimizing programming costs than it is about garnering huge ratings. Despite the fact that Leno lost a little north of 50 percent of its audience from the premiere episode on Monday to Friday’s airing, don’t expect The Jay Leno Show to be canceled anytime in the near future.” Toller continues, “Many have called NBC’s decision to air The Jay Leno Show five nights a week a bold move. Bold--maybe, fiscally responsible--definitely. The current network programming model is broken; networks simply can’t afford to pay in excess of a million dollars per episode for programs that no longer deliver a 20 to 30 household rating. So, it’s more reality programming or Leno five nights a week. At least with Leno viewers know what to expect. With reality programs, one can expect the unexpected.” Another question that NBC will need to address is local affiliate concern regarding the show’s ability to bring in viewers to their late local news broadcasts. Maria Topken, Empower Senior Vice President of Media Strategy adds, “While the network ‘won’ by saving on production costs, the local affiliates’ support for Leno will hinge on two critical questions: Can Leno consistently win his time period? And ultimately just as important will viewers stay tuned for their late local news? Time will tell.” Initial reaction to the show ran overwhelmingly negative by both critics in the mainstream press and Twitter users; however, public opinion seems to be much more forgiving of the new show. It is interesting to see that the Twitter universe’s sentiment is much closer to the mainstream media in terms of sentiment. Could social media users more closely resemble smaller versions of the mainstream press where a critical eye and sharp tongue makes for a more interesting read, even if it is a sentence at a time? Julie Pahutski, Empower Senior Vice President of Consumer Insights says that marketers must provide perspective when looking at social media content. “The study shows how important it is to listen to the online space. We found a variety of reviews across media critics, consumer generated media and public opinion about the show—these days everyone has a voice. It’s a lesson to evaluate online and offline sentiment together, or you’re only seeing half of the picture.” Based on the results of Empower’s survey, Leno viewers give the program high marks and more importantly, say they expect to be regular viewers of the show well into the future. Add to this the fact that the most enthusiastic viewers for the show are adults 25 to 44 years old, the group most coveted by advertisers, and NBC’s strategy seems, at least initially, a success. NBC may have failed to convince traditional media reviewers and social media users that Jay Leno is the right show for their line-up; however NBC does seem to have generated enough awareness and positive opinion among everyday viewers that The Jay Leno Show has a very good chance of long term success.
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The People Have Spoken: Comparing Online and Offline Opinions of The Jay Leno Show
ABOUT THE STUDY The study was conducted among 1,000 US adults ages 18 or older, and was commissioned by Empower. The survey was conducted online September 17 and 18, 2009 and reflects a proportionate mix of age, genders and regions across the United States. In addition, Empower utilized ChatterWatch℠, its proprietary social media analysis tool to identify chatter about The Jay Leno Show on blogs, boards and Twitter. Social media messages were monitored from Tuesday, September 15th, the day following the show’s debut through Saturday, September 19th. Empower monitored traditional media reviews for The Jay Leno Show for the similar time period using Google News alerts for The Los Angeles Times, USA Today and The New York Times. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Kirby Thornton is Director of Consumer Insights at Empower. Kirby is a 15 year marketing research veteran who, when not watching Leno enjoys discussing sampling methodology with his wife, three children and two cats. You can reach Kirby at kirby.thornton@empowermm.com or via Twitter http://twitter.com/kirbythornton. ABOUT EMPOWER MEDIA MARKETING Empower specializes in reaching its clients’ customers through paid and earned media channels. Empower’s services include media planning and buying, a full-service digital practice, word of mouth marketing, social media marketing, media marketing strategy and consulting, and a consumer insights group that offers consumer research, ROI analysis and several proprietary tools. For more information, visit us at http://www.empowermm.com and follow us on Twitter at http://twitter.com/empowermm. ### Published September 23, 2009
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23, 2009
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