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Danske - Global Business Cycle Monitor

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					Investment Research — General Market Conditions
                                                                                                                 2 April 2012




Monitor
Global: Business Cycle Monitor
Summary and outlook
                                                                                                                 Key leading indicators to watch
•   Global leading indicators stayed muted in March, as the euro area and parts of Asia
    particular failed to see improvements, resulting in a minor fall in global PMI. However,                     •   German ZEW: 17 Apr
    data out of the US regained lost ground, indicating that the weakening might be only
                                                                                                                 •   Euro flash PMI: 21-24 Apr
    temporary. The OECD’s leading indicator also points to a further rise in Global PMI in
    coming months.                                                                                               •   German ifo: 20 Apr
•   We expect the US to continue to lead the recovery, though the ISM might be approaching                       •   China flash PMI: 1 May
    its peak. We still expect Chinese PMI to improve over the coming months after having                         •   US ISM / Global PMI: 1 May
    bottomed late last year. We expect European PMIs to regain their footing, as the effects of
    the debt crisis start to wear off. Oil prices are the main risk now but have not yet reached
                                                                                                                 •   German factory orders: 4 May
    levels that cause a serious threat to growth.                                                                •   OECD leading indicators: 12 May
Details
•   Global PMI new orders in March fell back slightly to 51.3, down from 51.7 in the
    previous month. Despite the fall in new orders, we expect global manufacturing to hold its
    ground over the coming months, signalling that the recovery is still underway.

•   In the US, Manufacturing ISM rebounded one point to 53.4 in March, from 52.4. The
    details were mixed, with slightly softer new orders on one hand but a solid employment
    reading on the other. We continue to look for a rise in the ISM towards 55 over the coming
    months, although adverse seasonal effects and high oil prices might pose some downside
    risk.

•   In the euro area manufacturing PMIs lost some momentum, with weakness present in the
    core countries, particularly in France. On the upside, however, German ifo figures
    signalled stronger growth ahead. Scandinavian manufacturing PMIs continued to send
    positive signals, particularly in Norway, while Denmark has failed to post gains.

•   In Asia, the overall picture was murky. Chinese PMIs continue to point in opposite
    directions, with weak HSBC figures and improving NBS data. The rest of Asia did,
    however, show somewhat more consistent signs of improvement. In CEE, PMIs have
    started to improve, as eurozone demand has recovered somewhat. Brazil PMI continues to
    edge higher, signalling continued expansion in the manufacturing sector.

Global PMI and OECD leading indicator                   PMI new orders manufacturing
     20 % m/m, AR                     Index                    Index                             Index
     15        << OECD leading                75          70                              USA            70
               indicator,                                               China, own s.a.
     10
               4 mths lead                    65          60                                             60
       5
       0                                      55          50                                             50
      -5                                                                                                      Chief Analyst
    -10                                       45          40                                             40
          Global PMI man,                                                                                     Allan von Mehren
    -15    new orders >>                      35                                                              +45 45 12 80 55
                                                          30                               Euroland      30
    -20
                                                                                                              alvo@danskebank.dk
    -25                                       25          20                                             20
         05 06 07 08 09 10          11 12                      05      06   07   08   09    10   11           Assistant Analyst
                                                                                                              Louise Aggerstrøm Hansen
Note: OECD+6 is OECD area plus 6 largest                Source: Markit, Reuters EcoWin                        +45 45 12 82 29
                                                                                                              loha@danskebank.dk
emerging markets
Source: Markit, Reuters EcoWin




Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 7 of this report.
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Monitor




US
Danske Markets’ ISM model                                                                             Order-inventory balance vs. ISM
65                                                                                              65    75 Index                                                               Index 75
         Index                                            ISM                            Index 60     70                                                                           70
60                                                                                                                                          ISM manufacturing
                                                                                                      65                                                                           65
55                                                                                              55    60                                                                           60
                                                                                                      55                                                                           55
50                                                                                              50
                                                                                                      50                                                                           50
45                                                                                              45    45                                                                           45
                                                                                                      40                       ISM new orders less                                 40
40                  Model +6months                                                              40    35                       inventories, standardized                           35
                    (1987-present)                                                                    30                                                                           30
35                                                                                              35
                                                                                                          00 01          02    03   04    05    06   07    08    09     10   11
30                                                                                              30
         00    01     02    03     04    05    06    07    08        09    10       11    12


Source: Reuters EcoWin                                                                                Source: Reuters EcoWin




Inventory demand ratio vs. ISM                                                                        Leading indicator vs. manufacturing production
 15 3 mth chg., % AR                                                                 Index      80     20 % m/m, AR                                                                20
                                                                                                                                                   3 mth growth, AR %
                                                                                                       15                      Manufacturing pro-                                  15
 10               << Danske Bank US                                                             70                             duction, 3 mth avg. >>
                  inventory - demand ratio 2MA, 2m lead                                                10                                                                          10
                                                                                                         5                                                                           5
     5                                                                                          60
                                                                                                         0                                                                           0
                                                                                                        -5                                                                          -5
     0                                                                                          50
                                                                                                      -10                                                                         -10
                                                                                                                << OECD leading indicator,
  -5                                                                                            40    -15                                                                         -15
                           ISM >>                                                                                      USA, 2 mths lead
                                                                                                      -20                                                                         -20
-10                                                                                             30    -25                                                                         -25
          00     01   02     03     04    05    06    07        08        09    10       11                00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


Source: Reuters EcoWin                                                                                Source: Reuters EcoWin




Eurozone
Eurozone: ifo expectations vs GDP                                                                     PMI New orders vs inventories balance

          Index                                                                      % q/q     2.0    75       Index                                                         Index 75
110                          << Ifo expectations
                                                                                                                              PMI, new orders - inventories, DB calc.
                                                                                               1.0    65                                                                          65
100
                                                                                               0.0
                                                                                                      55                                                                          55
  90
                                                                                               -1.0
                              << Model ifo expectations                                               45                                                                          45
  80                                                                                           -2.0
                                                                                                                          Euro, PMI manufacturing
  70       Model: ifo exp = f(Ger orders, ISM,                                                        35                                                                          35
                                                                     Euroland GDP >> -3.0
           metal prices, DAX, inventories)
  60                                                                                           -4.0   25                                                                          25
          00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12                                                           00      01    02   03    04    05    06   07    08    09     10   11


Source: Reuters EcoWin                                                                                Source: Markit, Reuters EcoWin




Germany: ZEW vs ifo expectations                                                                      Germany: industrial orders vs OECD leading indicator
 125 Net bal                                                                         Index     115     20.0      % m/m, AR                                         3m/3m, AR,      60
                                               Ifo expectations >>
 100                                                                                           110     15.0                                                                        45
                                                                                                                                    German industrial orders >>
   75                                                                                          105     10.0                                                                        30
   50                                                                                          100       5.0                                                                       15
   25
                                                                                                95       0.0                                                                        0
    0
  -25                                                                                           90      -5.0                                                                      -15
  -50                                                                                           85    -10.0                                                                       -30
                                         << German ZEW                                                                  << OECD leading indicator, Euroland
  -75                                                                                           80    -15.0                                                                       -45
                                                                                                                                               4 mths lead
-100                                                                                            75    -20.0                                                                       -60
      00 01            02     03    04    05    06    07        08    09       10    11                         00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12


Source: Reuters EcoWin                                                                                Source: Reuters EcoWin



2|       2 April 2012
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UK and Switzerland
UK: PMI on sectors                                                                          UK: Industrial orders vs leading indicators
 4 Standardised                                                                         4    20 % 1m, AR
                                                               Standardised                                                                                           Net bal    25
 3                                                                                      3    15               CBI industrial orders >>
 2                                      UK PMI manufacturing, new ord                   2                                                                                        13
                                                                                             10
 1                                                                                      1                                                                                         0
                                                                                               5
 0                                                                                      0                                                                                       -13
                                                                                               0
-1                                                                                     -1                                                                                       -25
-2                                                                                     -2     -5                                                                                -38
-3                                                                                     -3   -10                                                                                 -50
       US ISM, new ord                      UK PMI service                                               << OECD leading indicator, UK
-4                                                                                     -4   -15                            5 mths lead                                          -63
-5                                                                                     -5   -20                                                                                 -75
   00 01 02 03 04                  05      06     07    08    09    10        11                 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08                           09    10    11 12


Source: Markit, Reuters EcoWin                                                              Source: Reuters EcoWin




Switzerland: KOF vs GDP                                                                     Switzerland: OECD leading indicator vs industrial production

     Index                                                                              6   105.0 Index        << OECD leading indicator,                              % y/y    15
 3                                                                            % y/y
                   << KOF (3m lead)                                                     5   102.5                                  Switz
                                                                                                                                                                                10
                                                                                        4
 2                                                                                          100.0
                                                                                        3                                                                                        5
 1                                                                                      2    97.5
                                                                                                                                                                                 0
                                                                                        1    95.0
 0                                                                                      0                                                                                        -5
                                                GDP >>                                       92.5
-1                                                                                     -1
                                                                                             90.0                                                                               -10
                                                                                       -2
-2                                                                                     -3    87.5              Industrial production >>                                         -15
     00      01   02    03   04    05     06    07     08    09     10    11 12                     98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11


Source: Reuters EcoWin                                                                      Source: Reuters EcoWin




Scandinavia
Denmark: manufacturing confidence vs GDP                                                    Denmark: confidence indicators
 5 % y/y                                                                  Index       15     40 Net balance                                                                      40
                                                                                                                                                            Net balance
 3                                                                                           30                            Services                                              30
                                                                                       5     20                                                                                  20
 1
                                                                                             10                                                                                  10
-1                                                                                     -5
                                                                                              0                                                                                   0
-3                                                                                          -10                                                                                 -10
                  << GDP                                                              -15
                                                                                            -20                                  Manufacturing                                  -20
-5                                                                                               Construction
                                                                                      -25   -30                                                                                 -30
-7                     Manufacturing confidence >>                                          -40                                                                                 -40
-9                                                                                    -35   -50                                                                                 -50
     00      01   02    03    04   05      06   07      08    09    10     11                   00 01 02 03               04   05     06   07    08    09    10        11


Source: Reuters EcoWin                                                                      Source: Reuters EcoWin




Norway: PMI vs industrial production                                                        Norway: manufacturing production vs confidence
70 Index                                                                           12.5           Index                                                                         15
                                                                         % y/y              25                                                                         % y/y
65                                                                                                                                                                              10
     << PMI, manufacturing                                                            7.5           << SSB confidence indicator
60                                                                                          15
                                                                                                                                                                                 5
55                                                                                    2.5     5
                                                                                                                                                                                 0
50                                                                                  -2.5     -5                                                                                  -5
45
                                                                                    -7.5    -15                                                                                 -10
40                                                                                                                   Manufacturing production >>
                       Industrial production >>
35                                                                                 -12.5    -25                                                                                 -15
     00      01   02    03   04    05     06    07     08    09    10    11                       00      01   02   03    04   05     06    07   08    09        10     11


Source: Markit, Reuters EcoWin                                                              Source: Reuters EcoWin




3|   2 April 2012
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Sweden: IP vs business surveys                                                         Sweden: leading indicator vs activity index
 3 Standardised                                                  % 6m/6m, AR    20      20 %y/y                                                                             30
                      << Manufacturing PMI                                                                                                                         Index
                                                                                        15                                      Manufacturing confidence >>                 20
 1                                                                              10
                                                                                        10                                                                                  10
                                                                                  0       5                                                                                  0
-1
                                                                                -10       0                                                                                -10
-3          << NIER Business survey
                                                                                         -5                                                                                -20
                                                                                -20
                                                                                       -10                                                                                 -30
-5                                                                              -30                         << OECD leading indicator, Sweden
                                               IP ex energy >>                         -15                  2 mths lead                                                    -40
-7                                                                              -40    -20                                                                                 -50
      00    01   02    03    04    05     06     07   08    09     10   11                  00 01           02    03    04      05    06   07    08    09    10   11


Source: Markit, Reuters EcoWin                                                         Source: Reuters EcoWin




Finland: confidence indicators vs industrial production                                Finland: leading indicators vs industrial production
 30 Net bal                                                       % 6m chng     25      20.0         % m/m AR                                                % 6m chng     25
              << Manufacturing sector                                                   15.0                                  Industrial production >>
 10                                                                             15                                                                                         15
                                                                                        10.0
-10                                                                               5       5.0                                                                               5
                                                                                          0.0
-30                                                                              -5      -5.0                                                                               -5
            << Construction sector                                                     -10.0
-50                                                                             -15                               << OECD leading indicators                               -15
                               Industrial production >>                                -15.0                      5mth lag
-70                                                                             -25    -20.0                                                                               -25
       00   01   02     03    04   05     06     07   08    09     10   11                       00    01    02   03     04     05    06   07    08    09    10   11 12


Source: Reuters EcoWin                                                                 Source: Reuters EcoWin




CEE/CIS
CEE: manufacturing PMI orders                                                          CEE: industrial production
70 Index                                                                        70     30 % y/y (3MA)                                                                      30
                                                                        Index                                                                               % y/y (3MA)
                                                                                                                                Poland
60                                                                              60     20                                                                                  20
                                                                                       10                                                                                  10
50                                                                              50
                                                                                         0                                                                                  0
40                            Hungary                                           40
                                                                                       -10                             Czech Republic                                      -10
            Poland
30                                      Czech Republic                          30     -20                                                                                 -20
                                                                                                                                                Hungary
20                                                                              20     -30                                                                                 -30
      00    01   02     03    04   05     06     07    08   09     10   11                      00    01    02    03     04     05    06   07    08    09    10    11


Source: Markit, Reuters EcoWin                                                         Source: Reuters EcoWin




Russia: PMI vs industrial production                                                   Ukraine: industrial production
65 Index         << PMI new orders, manufacturing Russia                         20    30 % y/y                                                                            30
                                                                        % y/y                                                                                     % y/y
60                                                                               15    20                                                                                  20
55                                                                               10    10                                                                                  10
50                                                                                 5
                                                                                         0                                                                                  0
45                                                                                 0
                     Industrial production, Russia >>                                  -10                                                                                 -10
40                                                                                -5                        Industrial production
35                                                                              -10    -20                                                                                 -20
30                                                                              -15    -30                                                                                 -30
25                                                                              -20    -40                                                                                 -40
    00 01        02     03   04    05     06     07   08    09     10   11                   02 03          04    05       06        07    08     09        10    11


Source: Markit, Reuters EcoWin                                                         Source: Reuters EcoWin




4|    2 April 2012
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China
Industrial production vs PMI                                                                       Leading indicator vs industrial production

          Diffusion                                                             % y/y       25,0   106 Index                                                                  % y/y 25.0
                           << New Orders, NBS, PMI, own SA                                                                                 <<Leading indicator
65                                                                                          22,5                                                                                    22.5
                                                                                            20,0   104
                                                                                                                                                                                    20.0
                                                                                            17,5                                                                                    17.5
55                                                                                                 102
                                                                                            15,0
                                                                                                                                                                                    15.0
                                                                                            12,5
                                                                                                   100                                                                              12.5
                   << New Orders,                                                           10,0
45               HSBC PMI, own SA                                                                                                                                                   10.0
                                                                  Industrial                 7,5    98
                                                                  production>>               5,0                     Industrial production>>                                         7.5
35                                                                                           2,5    96                                                                               5.0
           05         06          07         08         09         10          11    12                   02   03    04        05        06    07    08    09       10        11


Source: Markit, Reuters EcoWin                                                                     Source: Reuters EcoWin




Inventories                                                                                        Industrial production and real export
         Diffusion                                                         Diffusion                60                                                                     % y/y 70
                                                                                                       Net bal     << New export orders, NBS PMI
70                           New order/ inventory balance                                    70     50                                                                           65
                                                                         NBS PMI                    40                                                                           60
60                                                                                           60     30                                                                           55
                                                                                                    20                                                                           50
50                                                                                           50     10                                                                           45
                                                                                                     0                                                                           40
40                                                                                           40    -10                                                                           35
                                                                    HSBC PMI                       -20                                                            Real export>> 30
                                                                                                        << New export orders, HSBC PMI
30                                                                                           30    -30                                                                           25
            06          07             08          09             10           11      12               04     05      06      07    08     09                   10      11


Source: Markit, Reuters EcoWin                                                                     Source: Markit, Reuters EcoWin



Japan
PMI vs industrial production                                                                       Reuters Tankan vs industrial production
105 Index                                                                3m chng, AR               125 Diffusion, 12m chng                                                     % y/y
                                                                                            100                                                                                        30
 95
                                                                                             75     75              << Reuters Tankan, Large manufacturers                             20
 85                            Industrial production >>
 75                            (green is production plans)                                   50      25                                                                                10
 65                                                                                          25                                                                                         0
                                                                                                    -25
 55                                                                                           0                                                                                        -10
 45                                                                                                 -75
                                                                                             -25                                                                                       -20
 35
                            << Japan, PMI new orders                                         -50   -125                                  Industrial production >>                      -30
 25
 15                                                                                          -75   -175                                                                                -40
   00     02            03     04       05    06       07    08    09     10    11                        00   01   02    03        04    05    06   07   08     09   10       11


Source: Markit, Reuters EcoWin                                                                     Source: Reuters EcoWin




OECD leading indicators vs industrial production                                                   Inventories
 20 % m/m, AR                                                                                 40   20 % 3m/m, AR                                                               Index   56
                                                                                    % y/y
                              << OECD leading indicator, Japan                                30                               <<Inventories                                           54
 10                                                                                                10
                                                  5 mths lead                                 20                                                                                       52
                                                                                              10     0                                                                                 50
     0
                                                                                               0   -10                                                                                 48
-10                                                                                          -10                                                                                       46
                                 Industrial production >>                                          -20
                           (green line is production plans)                                  -20                                                                                       44
-20                                                                                                -30
                                                                                             -30                         PMI, finished good inventories>>                              42
-30                                                                                          -40   -40                                                                                 40
          00     01   02     03    04    05       06    07   08     09    10    11 12                     00   01   02    03     04       05   06    07   08     09      10    11


Source: Reuters EcoWin                                                                             Source: Reuters EcoWin




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Other Asia
Asia: industrial production                                                                      South Korea: industrial production vs exports

28 % y/y                                                                          Index 65.0     12.5 % 3m/3m                                                      % 3m/3m             40
23                                                                                                                        << Industrial production
                           << IP Emerging Asia                                          60.0       7.5                                                                                 20
18
                                                                                        55.0       2.5
13                                                                                                                                                                                     0
  8                                                                                               -2.5
                                                                                        50.0                                                Exports >>
  3                                                                                                                                                                                   -20
                                                                                                  -7.5
                                                                                        45.0
 -3                                                                                                                                                                                   -40
                       PMI Emerging Asia >>                                                      -12.5
 -8                                                                                     40.0
                                                                                                 -17.5                                                                                -60
    00 01              02    03      04     05    06   07     08   09    10       11
                                                                                                         01 02    03      04         05     06     07    08   09   10      11 12


Source: Reuters EcoWin                                                                           Source: Reuters EcoWin




Taiwan: industrial production vs exports                                                         Thailand: industrial production and export

          % 3m/3m                                                   % 3m/3m                      160                                                                                  160
 20                                                                                        20            Jan. 2006 = 100                                 Jan. 2006 = 100
                                                                                                 140                  Exports                                                         140
 10                                                                                        10
                                                                                                 120                                                                                  120
     0                                                                                      0

-10                               Exports                                                  -10   100                                                                                  100
                                                                                                             Industrial production
-20                                                                                        -20    80                                                                                   80
                                           Industrial production
-30                                                                                        -30    60                                                                                   60
          00     01    02     03     04      05   06     07   08    09       10    11                       06          07            08           09         10        11


Source: Reuters EcoWin                                                                           Source: Reuters EcoWin




LatAm and Commodities
Brazil: industrial production                                                                    Mexico: industrial production vs PMI
 40 % 3m chng, AR                                                                          65    12.5 % y/y                                                                            65
                                          Brazil PMI man, new orders >>            Index                                                                                      Index
                                                                                           60                                                                                          60
 20                                                                                                7.5
                                                                                           55                                                                                          55
     0                                                                                     50      2.5                                                                                 50
-20                                                                                        45     -2.5                                                                                 45
                                                                                           40               << Industrial production, Mexico                                           40
-40                                                                                               -7.5
                << Industrial production, Brazil                                           35                                                                                          35
                                                                                                                                PMI North America >>
-60                                                                                        30    -12.5                                                                                 30
           04         05        06          07      08        09        10        11                       03     04       05         06      07        08    09   10        11 12


Source: Reuters EcoWin                                                                           Source: Reuters EcoWin




Baltic Dry freight index and metal prices                                                        CRB metals vs industrial production
 12000 Index                                                                  Index 1200                                                                                % 3m, AR       50
                                                                                                         6 mth chng, AR
                                                                                    1100         20                                       CRB metal prices >>
 10000                             CRB metal price index >>
                                                                                    1000                                                                                               30
                                                                                                 10
     8000              << Baltic Dry index                                           900                                                                                               10
                                                                                     800           0
     6000                                                                            700                                                                                              -10
     4000                                                                            600         -10                                                                                  -30
                                                                                     500
     2000                                                                                        -20                                                                                  -50
                                                                                     400                                << OECD industrial production
          0                                                                          300         -30                                                                                  -70
                      08              09               10           11          12                  00           02             04           06          08        10         12


Source: Reuters EcoWin                                                                           Source: Reuters EcoWin




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Disclosure
This research report has been prepared by Danske Research, a division of Danske Bank A/S ("Danske Bank").
The authors of this research report are Allan von Mehren, Chief Analyst, and Louise Aggerstrøm Hansen,
Assistant Analyst.

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not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA, but satisfy the applicable requirements
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Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial
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8|   2 April 2012
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