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Diversion Rate Study

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									SWMCB DIVERSION
RESEARCH STUDIES

 Commercial and
 Organics Recycling
                                       Lisa Skumatz
    Skumatz Economic Research Associates Inc (SERA)
              762 Eldorado Drive, Superior CO 80027
               (303)494-1178 skumatz@serainc.com
OUTLINE
 Scope of work
 Brief discussion of baseline generation
  and diversion
 Goals and measurement
 Recommended strategies
 Q and A




                                     SERA
PROJECT SCOPE
 Two research topics:
   Organics (food/paper) recycling (comm. and
    res.)
   Commercial recycling
 Three project steps
   Secondary research- tools, goals, mandates,
    other issues
   Review MPCA goals and strategies
   Provide recommendations



                                         SERA
BASELINE DATA
Total     Problem Waste         Landfill Total          TOTAL
Recycling Materials* Processing          Trash          MSW
                                                        Managed**
 1,344,267     69,375         862,290 811,028 1,673,318 3,057,333
* Not managed by recycling or at processing facilities
** Total of recycling, problem materials, and trash, minus 29627 tons recycling
at processing facilities to avoid double-counting




                                                                          SERA
    BASELINE DATA-
    STREAMS
                                            Total Divertible
                      Total Organics in     Organics in trash     Total Diverted in 2010
                      trash going to        going to Landfill /   (From SWMCB 2010
                      landfill / WTE        WTE                   SCORE)
Res. Organics                     312,700              181,800                       719
Commercial Organics               295,700              147,000                   126,647
Total Organics                    608,400              328,800                   127,366

                      Total Recyclables in trash       Recycling Tons Diverted 2010
                      going to landfill / WTE          (Recyclables only, no SSO) (From
                      (Recyclables only, no SSO)1      SWMCB 2010 SCORE)
Residential                                  272,300                              295,900
Commercial                                   279,800                              886,700
Total                                        552,100                           1,215,9002




                                                                              SERA
    PROCESSING CAPACITY
     Recycling- Reported (county interviews) not
      to be a limiting factor
     Organics-Capacity may be a factor,
      transportation and location is a challenge
Facility Type                    Tons/year   % of Capacity
Food to people                   500                 0.3%
Food to animals (direct)         11,900              6.0%
Food to animals (feed)           75,300             38.3%
Organics composting facilities   109,000            55.4%
Total                            196,700           100.0%




                                                             SERA
GOALS AND
MEASUREMENT
MPCA recommended goals




                         SERA
GOALS (N. America)
   Edward Island – goal 65% diversion (currently 61%)
   Metro Vancouver, BC – 70% diversion from landfill an WTE by
    2015 (currently 55%)
   Portland Metro- 64% recovery goal by 2009 (currently 57%)
   Regional District of Nanaimo, BC- 75% by 2010, Zero Waste long
    term (currently 61%)
   Marion County, OR- 55% diversion goal (currently 58%)
   Tompkins County, NY- 75% by 2016 (currently 60%)
   Alameda County Stopwaste, CA- 75% landfill diversion (state
    goal) (currently 68%)
   San Francisco, CA – Zero waste by 2020 (currently 77%)
   Sunnyvale, CA - 75% landfill diversion (currently 66%)
   Santa Barbara, CA- 75% landfill diversion (currently 66%)
   Markham, ONT- 70% goal (currently 66%)
   Nantucket, MA (currently 92%)

                                                              SERA
GOALS (N. America)
   Commercial Recycling (50-75% diversion, +80% part.)
    in highest achieving communities (San Francisco, Seattle,
    Alameda County, Metro Vancouver, BC Portland, OR, Owen
    Sound, ONT, Prince Edward Island)
   Organics Diversion- Average overall diversion 52%,
    Residential- 7-9lbs/hh/week (food & paper) (25-30 with
    YW), Businesses- 20-90% of targeted stream
     Renton, WA- 42%
     Kirkland, WA- 43%
     Castro Valley Sanitation District- 34%
     Enumclaw, WA – 34%
     Edmonds, WA (Diversion is for food scraps / food soiled
        paper alone) – 13%



                                                         SERA
Is the 60% Recycling Goal
Realistic for the SWMCB
Region?




                        SERA
    GOALS (COMMERCIAL)
    Source separated organics diverted from the waste stream and
       the source reduction and yard waste credits are not
       included in the recycling calculations.

Figure 1.9: Tons Needed to Reach 60% Goal1 (Available Recycling Tons 552,1002)
                                                          Tons above 2010      % of Stream
Target Year   Target Number      Total Tons Needed        (Recycling Only)
       2015          45% - 48%     1,375,800-1,467,500     159,900 - 251,600                  29% - 46%
       2020          47% - 51%    1,436,900 - 1,559,200    221,100 - 343,400                  40% - 62%
       2025          49% - 54%    1,498,100 - 1,651,000    282,200 – 435,100                  51% - 79%
       2030           54%- 60%    1,651,000 - 1,834,400    435,100 - 618,500                 79% - 112%




                                                                                             SERA
 GOALS AND IMPACTS
Tons Needed to Reach Recycling Goal by Year (Recycling Only) (Available Commercial
Recycling Tons 279,800)
 Year: 2015 (45% - 48%)
                             Tons above current level   % of COMMERCIAL Tons Available
 If 100%1 from Commercial         159,900 – 251,600                        57% - 90%
    If 50% from Commercial         80,000 – 125,800                        29% - 45%
  Year: 2020 (47% - 51%)
                             Tons above current level   % of COMMERCIAL Tons Available
 If 100% from Commercial          221,100 – 343,400                       79% - 123%
   If 50% from Commercial         110,500 – 171,700                        40% - 61%
 Year: 2025 (49% - 54%)
                             Tons above current level   % of COMMERCIAL Tons Available
 If 100% from Commercial          282,200 – 436,100                      101% - 156%
   If 50% from Commercial         141,100 – 217,500                        50% - 78%
  Year: 2030 (54%- 60%)
                             Tons above current level   % of COMMERCIAL Tons Available
 If 100% from Commercial          436,100 – 618,500                      156% - 221%
   If 50% from Commercial         217,500 – 309,300                       78% - 111%

                                                                                         SERA
Is the 15% SSO Recycling
Goal Realistic for the
SWMCB Region?




                           SERA
GOALS (SSO)
Year          Goal       ‘New’ Tons Needed    % of Divertible  % of Total Organics Stream2
                                              Tons Available1
       2015    3% - 6%        None3 to 56,000      None to 16%                  None to 7%
       2020    4% - 8%       None to 117,200      None to 34%                  None to14%
       2025   6% -12%       56,000 to 239,500      16% to 70%                   7% to 28%
       2030   9% -15%      147,800 to 331,200      43% to 97%                  17% to 38%

 Facility capacity is an issue at 10.5%
  SSO diversion if no new facilities
  open


                                                                                     SERA
Recommended
Strategies



              SERA
STRATEGY RESEARCH
 Examined existing in-house data from
  organics programs (recent BMPs research
  for EPA Region 5)
 Used in-house data to identify high
  performing commercial programs
 Identified communities using the MPCA
  Plan strategies
 Used existing data, interviews, published
  literature to identify programs with strong
  potential

                                          SERA
RECOMMENDATIONS
 Those that have the ‘biggest bang’ for the
  Region
 Those that can increase access to
  diversion for more generators
 As well as those that can be implemented
  quickly/easy




                                         SERA
RECOMMENDATIONS
Used SERA WDAM to develop impact
  estimates
Two ‘Packages’ of strategies
1) High impact / low cost per ton
2) Lower impact / higher cost per ton but
   avoid mandates




                                            SERA
PACKAGE 1
 ORDINANCE- Commercial fees embedded in trash
  bills/mandatory pay for program (organics and
  recycling)
 OUTREACH- Social marketing campaign, business
  technical assistance, targeted
  materials/generators (focus on Comm. SSO)
 ORDINANCE/CONTRACTING- Curbside residential
  SSO with costs embedded for all. Switch to
  every-other-week trash
 ORDINANCE- Require haulers to report tons
  collected and diverted for all sectors
 ORDINANCE (Optional)– Mandatory Recycling and
  SSO or disposal ban
                                           SERA
                                                                                                                                                        day of City staffer FTE per
                                                                                                                                                        hauling company to
Hauler reporting of tonnages to track progress,                                                                                                         request, analyze data;
ability to audit books of haulers to assure they                                                                                                        assume 5 firms per county.

         PACKAGE 1
are offering / providing the required services
(above)                                          0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% - 0.0%                       Low                 $0
                                                                                                                                                        (less than $30K for 6
                                                                                                                                                        counties)

                                                                                                               $350-500 for                Includes cost of inspecting
                                                                                                                              1 year Gov't
==> IF high diversion not met, trigger with                      % of Total Tons                                   organics; Budget (in random loads at faciliites
Mandatory SSO / Ban for commercial               % of Total Tons     (Comm'l      % of Total Tons Cost/Ton    <$150/ton incl. Thous $,     to enforce; can ramp
                                                 (Comm'l Recy) - organics) - NEW (Resid'l organics) Range - Cost/Ton Range- across all
recycling and/or organics                                               -                                                        $750-1500 down
                                                  7.2% - tons 5.6% tons 8.1% 5.1% - tons City$0-$25 Generator YW SWMCB) Notes / up if needed.
                                                    NEW 8.9%                        - NEW 7.7%
Recommended Package 1 - High
TOTAL PACKAGE 1 (without Mandatory)
Diversion, Low City Cost Per Ton
                                                  3.0% - 5.5% 1.7% - 5.2% 3.5% - 6.5%                     $12          $227 $1.2-3.7 mill.
TOTAL TONS DIVERTED FOR PACKAGE 1                                                                                                                       Total tons diverted: 140K-
                                                                                                                    -$25 to $500
(without Mandatory, thousands)                      50 -      92     29 -      87      58 -     109             (higher for small
                                                                                                                                                        290K (rounded)
TOTAL PACKAGE 1 (with Mandatory)                  7.2% - 11.6% 5.6% - 8.6% 5.1% - 7.2%                         generator, lower      $1.9-5.2 million
Commercial Program Fees Embedded in Trash                                                                          (with potential          Excludes (relatively low)
TOTAL TONS DIVERTED FOR - Recycling
Bill OR mandatory pay for servicePACKAGE 1                                                                           savings) for            Total tons diverted: 300K-
                                                                                                                                            cost for administration /
(with organics
AND mandatory, thousands)                          121 -
                                                 2.5% -       194 94 -
                                                            4.0% 1.5% -        143
                                                                             4.0%      86 --     121     $2-$6              large  $200-600 auditing
                                                                                                                                             460K (rounded)
                                                                                                                                            Depends on budget
                                                                                                                   -$25 to $500             assigned by city - well-
Commercial Technical Assistance and Social                                                                     (higher for small            designed technical
Marketing to reach out; target outreach on                                                                    generator, lower              assistance can continue to
sectors and high volume materials (OCC,                                                                           (with potential           pull more tons from the
paper, organics) in appropriate (targeted)                                                                          savings) for            sector at reasonable
sectors                                          0.5% -     1.5% 0.2% -      1.2%         -          $50-$100              large $1000-3000 cost/ton.
Residential organics service added with                                                                                                     Adds more than double
embedded fee, trash switched to every other                                                                                                 these tons in addition as
week (organics waste diversion incidental to                                                                       $350-500 for             yard waste diversion,
yard waste collection, but only organics waste                                                                         organics;            which lowers effective cost
reported here). Establishes curbside yard /                                                                      <$150/ton incl.            per ton to $100-200/ton for
organics collection.                                    -                -           3.5% -    6.5%       Low                YW                     SERA
                                                                                                                                    $25-150 generators.
                                                                                                                                1 year Gov't
                                                                   % of Total Tons                                              Budget (in
                                                   % of Total Tons     (Comm'l      % of Total Tons Cost/Ton                    Thous $,
                                                   (Comm'l Recy) - organics) - NEW (Resid'l organics) Range -   Cost/Ton Range- across all
                                                      NEW tons           tons         - NEW tons      City      Generator       SWMCB)       Notes
Recommended Package 1 - High
Diversion, Low City Cost Per Ton

                                                                                                                    -$25 to $500
                                                                                                                (higher for small
                                                                                                               generator, lower
Commercial Program Fees Embedded in Trash                                                                          (with potential         Excludes (relatively low)
Bill OR mandatory pay for service - Recycling                                                                        savings) for          cost for administration /
AND organics                                       2.5% -    4.0%   1.5% -    4.0%         -             $2-$6              large $200-600 auditing
                                                                                                                                           Depends on budget
                                                                                                                  -$25 to $500             assigned by city - well-
Commercial Technical Assistance and Social                                                                    (higher for small            designed technical
Marketing to reach out; target outreach on                                                                   generator, lower              assistance can continue to
sectors and high volume materials (OCC,                                                                          (with potential           pull more tons from the
paper, organics) in appropriate (targeted)                                                                         savings) for            sector at reasonable
sectors                                            0.5% -    1.5%   0.2% -    1.2%         -        $50-$100              large $1000-3000 cost/ton.
Residential organics service added with                                                                                                    Adds more than double
embedded fee, trash switched to every other                                                                                                these tons in addition as
week (organics waste diversion incidental to                                                                      $350-500 for             yard waste diversion,
yard waste collection, but only organics waste                                                                        organics;            which lowers effective cost
reported here). Establishes curbside yard /                                                                     <$150/ton incl.            per ton to $100-200/ton for
organics collection.                                     -                -          3.5% -    6.5%      Low                YW     $25-150 generators.
                                                                                                                                           Costs assume less than 1
                                                                                                                                           day of City staffer FTE per
                                                                                                                                           hauling company to
Hauler reporting of tonnages to track progress,                                                                                            request, analyze data;
ability to audit books of haulers to assure they                                                                                           assume 5 firms per county.
are offering / providing the required services                                                                                             (less than $30K for 6
(above)                                            0.0% -    0.0%   0.0% -    0.0%   0.0% -    0.0%      Low                 $0            counties)

                                                                                                                   $350-500 for                Includes cost of inspecting
==> IF high diversion not met, trigger with                                                                           organics;                random loads at faciliites
Mandatory SSO / Ban for commercial                                                                                <$150/ton incl.              to enforce; can ramp
recycling and/or organics                          7.2% -    8.9%   5.6% -    8.1%   5.1% -    7.7%    $0-$25                YW                    SERA
                                                                                                                                     $750-1500 down / up if needed.
        PACKAGE 1 ADD-ON

                                                                                                                                              1 y ear Gov 't
                                                                                % of Total Tons % of Total Tons                               Budget (in
                                                                % of Total Tons     (Comm'l        (Resid'l     Cost/Ton                      Thous $,
More expensive, but complementary programs                      (Comm'l Recy) - organics) - NEW organics) - Range -         Cost/Ton Range- across all
to Package 1                                           Pgm #s      NEW tons           tons        NEW tons      City              Generator SWMCB)             Notes
Residential social marketing to outreach on organics /
yard (and recycling) - only organics tons reported
here.                                                  O1             -                -          0.8% - 1.5% $250-500                  n/a $3000-$8,000

                                                                                                                                                           May be spread over several
Small businesses (1CY) may use residential recycling                                                                                                       years; costs arise because many
program with no fee                                  C7,O2      0.5% -    0.7%         -                -        $200-300               n/a     $2000-3000 businesses, small percent of tons.




                                                                                                                                                                        SERA
PACKAGE 2
   ORDINANCE- Haulers must ‘offer’ recycling and SSO to all
    accounts
   POLICY / CONTRACT- Small businesses may use residential
    recycling services (with same fee)
    INCENTIVE /OUTREACH- Recycling co-ops (commercial)
   OUTREACH- Social marketing campaign, business technical
    assistance, targeted materials/generators (focus on Comm.
    SSO)
   POLICY / INCENTIVE– Continue / expand schools programs
   ORDINANCE- Require haulers to report tons collected and
    diverted for all sectors




                                                         SERA
                                                                                                                                         1 year Gov't
                                                                                     % of Total Tons % of Total Tons                     Budget (in
                                                                     % of Total Tons     (Comm'l        (Resid'l     Cost/Ton            Thous $,
                                                                     (Comm'l Recy) - organics) - NEW organics) - Range - Cost/Ton Range- across all
                                                        Pgm #s          NEW tons           tons        NEW tons City          Generator  SWMCB)       Notes
Optional Package 2 - Avoid Mandates
                                                                                                                                          -$25 to $500
                                                                                                                                      (higher for small
                                                                                                                                             generator,
                                                                                                                                            lower, with
                                                                                                                                        potentiall more
Require haulers to "OFFER" recycling and organics                                                                                          savings, for
service, with fees NOT embedded in trash rates.         C9, O5        0.1% - 0.3% 0.1% - 0.2% 0.1% - 0.2%                     $4- $50            large) $70 - $250
Small businesses (1 CY) may use residential
recycling program WITH fee (same as res cost &
containers)                                             C7            0.1% - 0.2%              -                 -          Low             $300-$600 Low
Recycling Cooperatives, to help aggregate tons from
multiple small businesses to make it practical for
haulers to collect materials from these businesses.     C8         0.1%       0.3%                                               $0-$50                 n/a   $100-200
Commercial Technical Assistance and Social              C1, C2,
marketing to reach out on new program initiatives for   C3, O1,
Commercial sector                                                  0.5% - 2.0% 0.3%               1.5%                       $50-$100
                                                        O2, O10 -$25 to $500 (higher for small- generator, lower, -with potentiall more savings, for large) $1000-3000
Continue and expand schools organics diversion
programs                                                O8                  -           0.1% - 0.2%              -          $200-$400              n/a     $500-1000

                                                                                                                                                                         Costs assume less than 1 day of
                                                                                                                                                                         City staffer FTE per hauling
Hauler reporting of tonnages to track progress, ability                                                                                                                  company to request, analyze
to audit books of haulers to assure they are offering /                                                                                                                  data; assume 5 firms per county.
providing the required services (above)                 C6, O4        0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% - 0.0%                         Low              $0                    (less than $30K for 6 counties)
TOTAL PACKAGE 2                                                       0.8% - 2.7% 0.5% - 1.9% 0.1% - 0.2%                         $17              $37 $1.6-4.4 mill.
TOTAL TONS DIVERTED FOR PACKAGE 2
(thousands)                                                              13 -      45       8-       32        1-       3                                                Total tons diverted = 22K-80K
                                                                                                                                                                                SERA
GOALS AND IMPACTS
Year: 2015
                          Tons above current level   % of Recycling Tons Available
If 100% from Commercial        159,900 – 251,600                       57% - 90%
If 50% from Commercial          80,000 – 125,800                       29% - 45%
Year: 2020
                          Tons above current level   % of Recycling Tons Available
                                                                                     Impacts of
If 100% from Commercial        221,100 – 343,400                      79% - 123%
                                                                                     Package 1 (no
If 50% from Commercial         110,500 – 171,700                       40% - 61%     mandate) 58K-
Year: 2025                                                                           117K tons
                          Tons above current level   % of Recycling Tons Available
If 100% from Commercial        282,200 – 436,100                     101% - 156%
If 50% from Commercial         141,100 – 217,500                       50% - 78%
Year: 2030                                                                           Impacts of
                                                                                     Package 1 (with
                          Tons above current level   % of Recycling Tons Available   mandate) 121K
                                                                                     –194K
If 100% from Commercial        436,100 – 618,500                     156% - 221%

 If 50% from Commercial        217,500 – 309,300                      78% - 111%

                   Pkg 1: Commercial 58,000 to 117,000
                      If mandated / banned 121,000 to 194,000
                      Pkg 2: 13,000 to 45,000                 SERA
         GOALS AND IMPACT
Figure 1.18: Organics Recycling Goals and Impacts of Programs
Year        Goal    ‘New’ Tons Needed % of Divertible Tons Available1 % of Total Organics Stream2     Impacts of
       2015 3% - 6%      None3 to 56,000                  None to 17%                   None to 7%    Package 1 (no
                                                                                                      mandate) 87K-
       2020   4% - 8%       None to 117,200                 None to 36%                 None to14%
                                                                                                      196K tons
       2025   6% -12%     56,000 to 239,500                 16% to 73%                   7% to 28%
       2030   9% -15%    147,800 to 331,200                45% to 101%                  17% to 39%
                                                                                              Impacts of Package 1
                                                                                              (w/ mandate) 180K-
Pkg 1: Organics 87,000 to 196,000
Several strategies presented themselves as programs                                           264K tons

  If mandated / banned 180,000 to 264,000
  Pkg 2: 9,000 to 25,000




                                                                                                     SERA
INCLUDED IN REPORT
 Detailed information on each
  program (where, how, advantages,
  pitfalls) and more programs
  (comm.(14) SSO (17)
 Discussion of mandatory recycling /
  bans
 Example cities / programs
 Expanded inventory of commercial
  and organics programs identified
                                    SERA
QUESTIONS / DISCUSSION:


  Lisa A. Skumatz, Ph.D.
  Principal, SERA, Inc.
  Juri Freeman
  Sr. Analyst
  762 Eldorado Drive, Superior, CO 80027
  Phone: 303/494-1178
  email: skumatz@serainc.com
         freeman@serainc.com




                                           SERA

								
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