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Delivering Deepwater Developments in Australasia

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Delivering Deepwater Developments in Australasia Powered By Docstoc
					THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                     Australasian Deepwater –
                   Opportunities & Global Context


             Will Rowley - Director of Analytical Services

                           Infield Systems Ltd.




                                                     www.infield.com
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                                   Contents

                                • Introduction
                                • Definitions & Clarification
                                • Global Deepwater – Trends & Sectors
                                • Regions – Comparisons & Drivers
                                • Australasia – Development Strategies
                                • Opportunities


                           Free world map of deepwater regions & activity –
                                          limited quantity




       www.infield.com                            Perth 22 February 2005      2
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS



                                                                                      Infield Systems Ltd, aka ‘Infield’ or ISL

                                                   • Established over 18 yrs, specialist boutique in offshore energy
                                                   • Highly respected internationally with clients in every continent
                                                   • Clients - operators, contractors, suppliers, Governments & NGOs
                                                   • Worldwide offshore coverage – unique data & info
                                                   • Service provider (direct & indirect) to over 87%* offshore industry
                                                   • Full suite of products and services – data, publications & services
                                                   • Highly developed modelling & forecasting system - OFFPEX™
                                                   • Tailored reports, studies, surveys, models & forecasts, due diligence
                                                   • Support to Operations, Strategic & Investor Relations
                               Facility $m
                                                                                                                                                                                                   2500         BP           CABGOC      CNR                  ConocoPhillips
                    0   200   400      600          800        1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                ExxonMobil   Shell       Star Deep            Statoil
               0                                                      Africa             Asia                                                                                                                   Total        Woodside    Oil Co.
                                                                                                                                                                                                   2000
                                                  3000                Australasia        Europe
             500                                                      Latin America      Middle East
                                                  2500                North America                                                                                                                1500

                                                                                                                                                                                                  $m
    WD (m)




             1000                                                                                     30
                                                  2000                                                                                                                                             1000
                                                                                                                 FPSs     FPSO     Spar                                                                                                                                               Year Installed
             1500                                                                                     25
                                             $m




                                                  1500                                                                                                                                                 500
             2000                                                                                     20         TLP      Other                                                                                                                           1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
                                                  1000                                                                                                      Ultra-deep
                                                                                                                                               8,000
                                                                                              Units




                                                                                                                                                                                                         0                                               0
             2500                                                                                     15                                                    Deep
                                                  500                                                                                          7,000                                                          1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
                                                                                                                                                            Shallow                                                                                  500
                                                                                                      10
                                                                                                                                               6,000                                                                            Actual Year of Spend                                                                          1994   1997   2000     2003      2006    2009       2012
                                                    0
                                                                                                 5                                             5,000                                                                                                   1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                                          1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       200




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              WD (m)
                                                                          Actual Year of Spend
                                                                                                                                          $m




                                                                                                 0                                             4,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1500                                                             FPSO
                                                                                                           1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
                                                                                                                                              3,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        FPSs
                                                                                                                               Year Installed                                                                                                                                                                          600




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             WD (m)
                                                                                                                                              2,000                                                                                                    2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        TLP
                                                                                                                                               1,000                                                                                                                                                                   800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Spar
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2500
                                                                                                                                                  0                                                                                                                                                                   1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Other
                                                                                                                                                   1999   2001     2003    2005    2007    2009        2011   2013                                     3000                                                           1200             Platform installed WD
                                                                                                                                                                          Actual Year of Spend                                                                                                                        1400             2 per. Mov. Avg. (Platform installed WD)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1600




                                     * To international operators & contractors that account for operations on over 87% of the annualised offshore capex worldwide


                www.infield.com                                                                                                                                  Perth 22 February 2005                                                                                                                                                                                                  3
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                          Definitions & Clarifications



                           Water-depth
                               Shallow                         <500m
                               Deepwater                       ≥500m
                               Ultra-deepwater                 ≥1500m [subset of deepwater]

                      Units, Values & terminology
                              Units              as noted
                              Values             US$m, Development Expenditure
                              Prospects          Identified developments
                              Forecasts          ISL view on reality of next five years (units & $)
                              Trends             Indications for 5yr+




       www.infield.com                           Perth 22 February 2005                         4
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS



                                                     Europe
         North America                                                 Asia

                                                      Middle East

                                          Africa


                Latin America

                                                                    Australasia
                           Definitions & Clarifications - Regions




       www.infield.com                    Perth 22 February 2005                  5
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                           Global Deepwater – Trends & Sectors




       www.infield.com               Perth 22 February 2005      6
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                Nos. offshore fields in prospect p.a worldwide

                                         Actual          Prospects                     Prospects not forecasts
                   300            Shallow
                   250            Deep
                                                                                 Most of these very low status,
                                  Ultra-deep
                   200                                                           marginal & won’t be developed
                                                                                 and form a ‘bow wave’ to the
            Nos.




                   150
                                                                                 right
                   100

                   50                                                                It is these prospects that are
                                                                                     the cause of excitement – the
                    0
                                                                                      field numbers may be small
                         1994    1997    2000     2003    2006    2009      2012
                                                                                     but ave. reserves/production
                                                                                             rates are large

                     Not forgetting the unknown potential of deepwater




       www.infield.com                                      Perth 22 February 2005                                7
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                   No. fields due on-stream growing on the back of extensive (and
                   expensive) E&A activity over past 5 yrs

                                  60
                                              Ultra-deep
                                                                                                       5 yr forward – high
                                  50          Deep                                                    degree of confidence
                                  40
                                                                                             Trend lines
                           Nos.




                                  30
                                                                                                    But the 5-10yr window
                                  20
                                                                                                     is harder to predict
                                  10

                                   0
                                       1999    2001   2003   2005   2007    2009     2011    2013




       www.infield.com                                              Perth 22 February 2005                               8
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                     Deepwater development solutions under consideration - prospects


             45            No Dev. Yet

             40
                           Floating                                                        Notice lag of subsea to
                           Floating or Subsea (Alt.)
                           Fixed & Subsea
                                                                                           floating & high
             35
                           Fixed                                                           visibility of subsea
             30            ERD &/or Subsea                                                 prospects
                           Subsea Sat. to Floating
             25
       Nos




                           Subsea Sat. to Fixed
             20            Subsea Sat. to Onshore                                               Subsea to shore –
             15                                                                                growth area, Egypt,
             10                                                                                  Norway, Brazil
              5
              0
              1994            1997       2000          2003   2006      2009        2012
                                                                                            Lack of visibility of
                                                                                            development solutions
                                                                                            in the longer term even
                                                                                            with deepwater


       www.infield.com                                          Perth 22 February 2005                               9
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                         Expenditure Levels

                     Some Key Notes & Assumptions to Forecasts
                           Bottom-up, project-by-project assessment
                           Forecasts 0-5yrs
                           Trends & Indicators 5-10yrs
                           Oil price scenario $18-22/bbl – default
                           Global economy range, static to positive growth (0-3%)
                           One major global incident every 3-5 years
                           Project expenditure cross-checked to operators & field owners
                           Full transparency of methodology, assumptions and forecasts
                           Final forecasts to 2009 subject to minor change as verification
                           of modelling is completed




       www.infield.com                          Perth 22 February 2005                       10
           Scale of deepwater activity – key sectors                         Platforms
                                                                                         00-04 $13.7bn
                                                                                         05-09 $20.6bn
     6000

                      Platforms                                              Subsea
     5000
                      Subsea
                      Pipelines                                                          00-04 $7.9bn
     4000
                                                                                         05-09 $17.3bn
$m




     3000

     2000                                                                    Pipelines
                                                                                         00-04 $9.1bn
     1000
                                                                                         05-09 $14.8bn
       0
             1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008
                                    Actual Year of Spend



               $55bn deepwater development expenditure 05-09 – all sectors

              Peaking at $13.7bn in 2006 – installed facilities & infrastructure costs
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                             Platform Expenditure


                                Africa               Asia
                  6000          Australasia          Europe
                                Middle East          Latin America                  An exceptional peak?
                  5000          North America        Trend
                                On-stream Model
                  4000
                                                                                        Or the first in a series of
                                                                                    ?
             $m




                  3000
                                                                                        development waves? –
                  2000                                                                      early indicators
                  1000                                                                  What could impact on this
                       0                                                                         trend?
                       1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
                                         Actual Year of Spend                             US GoM, West Africa,
                                                                                          India, China, Mexico,
                           High visibility & certainty                                   Indonesia, Malaysia etc

                             Medium visibility & certainty


                                              Low visibility & certainty

       www.infield.com                                     Perth 22 February 2005                                12
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




         Development scenarios                                   Forecast                This is dominated by large
                                                     Actual                    Trend   newbuild FPSOs – we believe a
                 6000
                               CPT
                                                                                                    peak
                 5000          Semi-Sub       Ship-Shaped
                                                                                       But still close to $3bn/yr spent
                               Spar           TLP
                 4000
                               Trend
                                                                                       on platforms in the longer term
            $m




                 3000

                 2000

                 1000

                       0                                                                       Rationale -
                       1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
                                          Actual Year of Spend
   Need to ascertain success of current crop of large facilities – return on investment
   Part of peak one-off infrastructure development – West Africa & hubs
   Cheaper development solutions especially in new deepwater arenas
   Increasing focus on subsea

       www.infield.com                                Perth 22 February 2005                                     13
                 Average Platform Cost at Sanction (Actual & Intentions)

      •600

      •500

      •400
                                                                  Statistical Linear Trend
•$m




      •300

      •200
                                                                  Forecast Trend After
      •100                                                        Lessons Learnt
        •0
          •1985 •1988 •1991 •1994 •1997 •2000 •2003 •2006 •2009
                              •Year Of Sanction


      Only a small number of                       Few other companies can
      major operators can afford                   afford the risk these
      the newbuild mega-projects                   projects now bring – and in
      that have been a feature of                  the short-term many of
      the past few years                           these have their hands full
                                                   with existing developments
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                         In terms of the number of deepwater
                                                  platforms installed


              18           FPS               FPSO
                                                                       00-04 = 35
              16           Other Fixed       Other Floaters
              14
                           SPAR              TLP
                                                                                    04-08 = 68
              12
                                                                                           59% = FPSO (Africa, Brazil, Asia &
       Nos.




              10
               8                                                                                    Australasia)
               6
               4                                                                       Notice low visibility of Spars & TLPs
               2                                                                            – reflection of their short
               0                                                                             development schedules
               1989        1992   1995   1998 2001 2004        2007   2010   2013
                                           Installation Year
                                                                                          Note also a lack of projects
                                                                                         scheduled for installation in
                                                                                     2010/11, partly because of ‘rollover’
                                                                                     of projects to outside a 5 yr window


       www.infield.com                                            Perth 22 February 2005                                 15
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                                              Water Depth Trends
                                                        Year Installed


                            1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
                         500
                                                                                                    Overall trend continues
                         1000                                                                             downward
                         1500
                                                                                                     Increasing diversity of
                WD (m)




                                                                                         FPSO
                         2000                                                            FPSs       solutions in type and size
                                                                                         TLP
                         2500                                                            Spar
                                                                                         Other      Sphere size reflects relative
                                                                                                             cost scale
                         3000




       www.infield.com                                                   Perth 22 February 2005                                  16
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                     Dry Tree Solution – cost trends
                               TLP               Spar
             700               Linear (TLP)      Linear (Spar)

             600

             500
                                                                            Not all cost trends are
                                                                            upwards – mini TLPs &
             400
                                                                            repeat designs pulling
        $m




             300                                                             average costs down
             200

             100

                0
                1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016




       www.infield.com                             Perth 22 February 2005                             17
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                           TLP – Cost trend by water depth
                                               Year Installed
                       1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
                    500
                                                                                         TLP – growing distinction
                    700                                                                   between large & small
                    900
                                                                                                 facilities
                    1100
           WD (m)




                    1300

                    1500

                    1700

                    1900




                       Kikeh




       www.infield.com                                          Perth 22 February 2005                               18
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                              Spar - Cost trend by water depth



                                                             Year Installed
                                       1996   1998   2000   2002      2004    2006   2008      2010
                                    500


                                    1000


                                    1500
                           WD (m)




                                    2000


                                    2500

                                                                                            Spar
                                    3000



       Consistent trend down to 2,000m

    Possibilities here in Atwater Valley (US GoM)




       www.infield.com                                                Perth 22 February 2005          19
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                          Cost trend by water depth – dry trees


                                                         Year Installed
                                 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
                              500


                              1000
                                                                                               Key zone of interaction
                              1500                                                             between Spars & TLPs
                     WD (m)




                              2000
                                                                                                 Often compete –
                              2500                                                   TLP       alternative scenarios
                                                                                     Spar
                              3000




       www.infield.com                                             Perth 22 February 2005                              20
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                                          Deepwater FPSOs
                                              Year Installed
                  1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
               500


               1000                                                                         Vary considerably in scale &
                                                                                            design – newbuilds &
               1500                                                                         conversions
      WD (m)




               2000


               2500
                                                                           FPSO

               3000




        www.infield.com                                            Perth 22 February 2005                                  21
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                                FPSs – Semi-submersibles

                                        Year Installed
             1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
          500


          1000


          1500
 WD (m)




          2000


          2500
                                                                    FPSs

          3000




          Key hub developments in many regions –
                   especially US & Brazil




            www.infield.com                                     Perth 22 February 2005   22
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                           Regions – Trends & Sectors




       www.infield.com                Perth 22 February 2005   23
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                           Deepwater reserves due on-stream per annum


                                   North America                                  Mid-term trend
                      12,000       Middle East
                      10,000       Latin America
                                   Europe                                                   Large Africa fields
                       8,000
              MMBOE




                                   Australasia                                              coming on-stream
                       6,000       Asia                                                     clearly visible
                       4,000       Africa

                       2,000

                           -
                            1994     1997        2000   2003       2006       2009   2012




       www.infield.com                                   Perth 22 February 2005                              24
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                            Deepwater overall expenditure by region
                     6000         Asia                 Africa
                                  Australasia          Europe
                     5000
                                  Latin America        Middle East
                     4000         North America
                                                                                                              Mid-term trend?
                $m




                     3000

                     2000

                     1000

                           0
                           1999   2000   2001   2002    2003    2004   2005   2006   2007   2008
                                                  Actual Year of Spend
                                                                                                     North
                                                                                                    America
                                                                                                     26%
                                                                                                                         Africa

                               Note - growing importance of Africa
                                                                                                                         41%

                                                                                                                        Asia
                                                                                                    Latin                5%
                               Note – emergence of Asia & Australasia                              America
                                                                                                    23%                 Australasia
                                                                                                           Middle
                                                                                                                           2%
                                                                                                            East Europe
                                                                                                            0%    3%

                                                                                                               04-08 $m %

       www.infield.com                                                  Perth 22 February 2005                                        25
                   Every Region Experiencing Some Growth (5yr vs 5yr)


        •6000
                        •Asia                   •Africa
                        •Australasia            •Europe
        •5000           •Latin America          •Middle East
                        •North America
        •4000
  •$m




        •3000


        •2000


        •1000


           •0
                •1999   •2000   •2001   •2002   •2003   •2004   •2005   •2006   •2007   •2008
                                           •Actual Year of Spend



                                                  Significant growth in Asia & Australasia
All deepwater sectors
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




            300                                                                  Australasia – 2% market share 04-08
                           Control Lines
            250
                           Riser

            200            Pipelines
                           Subsea
                                                                                                         Small number of developments
       $m




            150            Platforms
                                                                                                           but an emerging market
            100

             50
                                                                                                             Enfield & Stybarrow FPSOs
              0
                  1999       2000      2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007    2008
                                                Actual Year of Spend

                                                                                         200
                                                                                         180
                                                                                         160          Woodside
                                                                                         140          BHP Billiton
              Led by local players at present                                       $m
                                                                                         120
                                                                                         100
                                                                                          80
                                                                                          60
              Are there enough prospects to                                               40

                  maintain momentum?
                                                                                          20
                                                                                           0
                                                                                                1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008



                                                                                                                     Platform expenditure

       www.infield.com                                                     Perth 22 February 2005                                                   27
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                           No. of new fields brought on-stream by
                                                     operators - Global
                  45
                  40
                            Balance                                                                The number of fields brought on-
                  35
                            Top 10
                                                               14         14
                                                                                                      stream by top ten operators
                                                                     11
                  30                                                                               increases but it is the remaining
                  25                                      10                                         operators who are growing in
           Nos.




                                                     8

                                                                                                               influence.
                  20                            7
                                            3
                  15                  0                        27    27   26
                  10    3                            20   20
                              3       14   16   17
                  5     9     7
                  0
                       1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

                                                                                      120
                                                                                                           Field Owners
         The number of field owners is also
                                                                                      100
                                                                                                           Operators
         increasing and there is a trend of                                           80

          owners eventually moving into
                                                                               Nos.


                                                                                      60
         operatorships as their experience                                            40
                      grows.
                                                                                      20

                                                                                       0
                                                                                            1994    1997   2000   2003    2006   2009   2012


       www.infield.com                                              Perth 22 February 2005                                                     28
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS



                                                    Global subsea development expenditure

                    5000         Africa          Asia
                                                                                                            North
                    4500         Australasia     Europe                                                    America
                    4000         Latin America   Middle East                                                21%
                    3500                                                                                 Middle
                                 North America
                    3000                                                                                  East                         Africa
               $m




                    2500                                                                                  1%                           47%
                    2000
                                                                                                         Latin
                    1500                                                                                America
                    1000                                                                                 21%
                                                                                                                                Asia
                        500                                                                             Europe                  6%
                                                                                                                     Austral'
                          0                                                                              2%            2%
                               1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
                                                        Year Installed


               120
                              Woodside
               100            Esso Australia
                              ChevronTexaco
                80
                              BHP Billiton
          $m




                60

                40
                                                                                                  Australasia subsea -
                                                                                                      deepwater
                20

                    0
                         1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008




       www.infield.com                                                   Perth 22 February 2005                                                 29
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                 Worldwide deepwater subsea production well trends

                                                                                      Year



                           1988, 684m
                              Brazil
                                                                                             1000m
                                        1993, 1027m
                                           Brazil


                                                      1997, 1709m
                                                         Brazil

                                    1998, 1853m              2000, 1877m
                                       Brazil                   Brazil                               2000m
                                                                            2002, 2198m US
                                                                                  GoM
                                                  2003, 2316m US                2005, 2408m US
                                                        GoM                           GoM


                                                               2007, 2682m US
                                                                     GoM

                                                                           2008, 2953m US                    3000m
               WD                                                                GoM




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THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                           Australasia – Development Strategies




       www.infield.com                Perth 22 February 2005      31
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                                       Australasia – combined deepwater expenditure

            300
                     Control Lines                                                                               Riser
                                                                                                       Control    1%
            250      Riser                                                                                               Pipelines
                                                                                                        Lines
                     Pipelines                                                                                             12%
                                                                                                         1%
            200      Subsea
                     Platforms
       $m




            150                                                                                  Platforms
                                                                                                   46%
            100                                                                                                               Subsea
                                                                                                                               40%
             50

              0
                  1999     2000   2001   2002   2003    2004   2005   2006   2007   2008
                                           Actual Year of Spend




                       Effectively a new sector
                             Deepwater ave = 83% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison)
                                   Golden triangle ave = 74% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison)

                                         Whilst second smallest region – next to fastest growing (Asia)
       www.infield.com                                                  Perth 22 February 2005                                         32
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                                         Asia – combined deepwater expenditure


                           1000
                                         Control Lines                                                                Control
                            900                                                                                                     Riser
                                         Riser                                                                         Lines
                            800                                                                                         3%           3%
                                         Pipelines
                            700
                                         Subsea                                                                                             Pipelines
                            600                                                                           Platforms                           31%
                                         Platforms
                    $m




                            500                                                                             31%
                            400
                            300
                            200
                            100
                              0
                                  1999   2000     2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008
                                                                                                                           Subsea
                                                           Actual Year of Spend
                                                                                                                            32%


          Asia 446% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) $3.6bn

                              Deepwater ave = 83% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison)
                                    Golden triangle ave = 74% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison)

                                                     Already the 4th Most Significant Deepwater Region
       www.infield.com                                                    Perth 22 February 2005                                                    33
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                               Asia - Cost trend by water depth – all platforms
                                                          Year Installed
                             1998       2000       2002       2004         2006        2008   2010
                             0

                           200
                                                                                                     Australasian
                           400                                                                       experience can
                           600                                                                       be used in Asia
                           800
                 WD (m)




                          1000                                               Kamunsu
                          1200

                          1400                             Kikeh
                          1600

                          1800

                          2000




                                    The number & scale of prospects is growing all
                                    the time – the key question is timing


       www.infield.com                                            Perth 22 February 2005                          34
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                      Asia & Australasia deepwater subsea production well
                                                       Year Installed
                                                                     trends
                              2000    2002      2004   2006   2008      2010      2012   2014   2016
                              0

                            200

                            400

                            600

                            800
                  WD (m)




                           1000

                           1200

                           1400        Asia
                           1600        Linear (Asia)

                           1800

                           2000




                                     Continued move into deeper waters expected




       www.infield.com                                        Perth 22 February 2005                   35
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                            Across Asia & Australasia we are seeing
                                               -
                           • wide range of development scenarios
                           • innovation in design & approach
                           • steep learning curve
                           • strong NOC & independent lead
                           • increased need for cooperation on delaying issues
                           • but a growing list of prospects
                           • world-class opportunities




       www.infield.com                    Perth 22 February 2005                 36
                                                            Asian Deepwater Prospects
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS

      Country         Operator                          Field                     DISC.   ON           STATUS          WD                DEVELOPMENT TYPE
    Philippines    Shell          Malampaya (SC-38)                                1992   2001   Producing              820   Fixed Production Platform and Subsea
    Philippines    Shell          Malampaya Oil Rim EWT (SC-38)                    2000   2001   Suspended              845   Floating Production
    Indonesia      Unocal         West Seno                                        1998   2003   Producing              953   Floating Production
    India          Reliance       D6 Field (KG-DWN-98/3) (Dhirubhai)               2002   2006   Firm Plan              900   Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative)
    Philippines    Shell          Malampaya Oil Rim (SC-38)                        2000   2006   Possible               845   Floating Production
    Indonesia      Unocal         Gehem                                            2003   2006   Probable              1823   Subsea Satellite to Onshore Facility
    Malaysia       Murphy         Kikeh (Sabah Block SB-K)                         2002   2007   Firm Plan             1340   Floating Production
    India          ONGC           M Field (KG-DWN-98/2) (Padmavati)                2001   2007   Possible               500   Subsea Satellite to Floating Production
    Indonesia      Unocal         Merah Besar                                      1997   2007   Probable               520   Floating Production
    Indonesia      Unocal         Sadewa                                           2003   2008   Firm Plan              550   Floating Production
    Indonesia      Unocal         Aton                                             1999   2008   Possible              1150   Subsea Satellite to Floating Production
    Japan          Japex          Sanriku Oki                                      2000   2008   Possible               857   No Development Scheme Announced Yet
    Malaysia       Shell          Kamunsu East North                               2000   2008   Possible              1000   Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative)
    India          ONGC           Krishna-Godavari KD-1-1                          2000   2008   Possible               844   Subsea Satellite to Onshore Facility
    India          ONGC           Annapurna (KG-DWN-98/2 R-Cluster)                2001   2008   Possible              1030   Fixed Production Platform and Subsea
    Malaysia       Shell          Gumusut (Sabah SB-J)                             2004   2008   Possible              1000   Floating Production
    Indonesia      Unocal         Hijau Besar                                      1998   2009   Possible               686   Subsea Satellite to Floating Production
    Brunei         Shell          Merpati/Meragi                                   1993   2009   Possible               500   No Development Scheme Announced Yet
    Malaysia       Shell          Kamunsu East                                     1999   2009   Possible               737   Subsea Satellite to Fixed Production
    Indonesia      Unocal         Janaka North                                     1999   2009   Possible              1316   Subsea Satellite to Floating Production
    India          Murphy         D6-D1 Field (KG-DWN-98/3)(Dhirubhai Southeast    2003   2009   Possible              1280   No Development Scheme Announced Yet
    Malaysia       Murphy         Kikeh Kecil (Sabah Block SB-K)                   2003   2009   Possible              1359   Subsea Satellite to Floating Production
    India          ONGC           Krishna-Godavari G-4                             2004   2009   Possible               500   No Development Scheme Announced Yet
    Philippines    Shell          Camago (SC-38)                                   1989   2009   Probable               736   Subsea Satellite to Fixed Production
    Indonesia      Unocal         Ranggas                                          2001   2009   Probable              1616   Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative)
    Indonesia      Unocal         Gendalo                                          1999   2010   Possible              1425   Floating Production or Subsea (Alternative)
    India          ONGC           N Field (KG-DWN-98/2)                            2001   2010   Possible               500   No Development Scheme Announced Yet
    Indonesia      Amerada Hess   Halimun (Tanjung Ara)                            2002   2010   Possible              1061   No Development Scheme Announced Yet
    Indonesia      Amerada Hess   Papandayan (Tanjung Ara)                         2002   2010   Possible               555   No Development Scheme Announced Yet
    India          Reliance       D6-F1 Field (KG-DWN-98/3) (Dhirubhai East)       2003   2010   Possible              1756   No Development Scheme Announced Yet
    Malaysia       Murphy         Kakap (Sabah Block SB-K)                         2004   2010   Possible               926   No Development Scheme Announced Yet
    Indonesia      Inpex          Jambu Aye Utara                                  1984   2011   Licence Surrendered   1200   No Development Scheme Announced Yet
    Indonesia      Unocal         Bangka                                           1999   2011   Possible               980   Subsea Satellite to Floating Production
    Philippines    Shell          San Martin (SC-38)                               1982   2012   Possible               850   No Development Scheme Announced Yet
    Indonesia      Unocal         Putih Besar                                      1997   2012   Possible               535   Subsea Satellite to Floating Production
    Indonesia      Unocal         Gula                                             2000   2012   Possible              1844   Subsea Satellite to Fixed Production
    Indonesia      Unocal         Gandang                                          2000   2014   Possible              1684   Subsea Satellite to Fixed Production
    Indonesia      Unocal         Gada                                             2000   2015   Possible              1897   Subsea Satellite to Fixed Production
    Indonesia      Unocal         Maha                                             2002   2016   Possible               742   Subsea Satellite to Floating Production

       www.infield.com                                                  Perth 22 February 2005                                                               37
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                           Australia – Opportunities




       www.infield.com          Perth 22 February 2005   38
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                • Regional leadership
                • To be at the forefront of regional deepwater developments
                • Potential to develop a long-term deepwater programme
                • Development of low-cost and flexible solutions
                • Cross regional opportunities




       www.infield.com                      Perth 22 February 2005            39
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                                                       Australasian Deepwater Prospects

                           Over $900m of deepwater capex forecast over the next five years


                                           Conservative forecast – much greater potential
                                             YEAR       YEAR ON                    OIL     GAS         COND           PROD RATE    PROD RATE
       OPERATOR NAME       FIELD NAME        DISC.      STREAM     STATUS          RES     RES          RES    WD      OIL (BPD)   GAS(MMCFD)      DEVELOPMENT TYPE

      Esso Australia                                                                                                                             Floating Production or
      Resources Ltd        Scarborough          1979       2010   Possible                  6000                912                        600   Subsea (Alternative)

      ChevronTexaco        Chrysaor                                                                                                              Subsea Satellite to Onshore
      Australia Pty Ltd    (Gorgon Area)        1995       2012   Possible                  2900          75    818                        360   Facility

      BHP Billiton         Novara (WA-                                                                                                           Subsea Satellite to Floating
      Petroleum Pty Ltd    155-P(1)             1995       2012   Possible            45                       1015        30000                 Production

      Woodside Energy      Enfield (WA-
      Ltd                  271-P)               1999       2006   Under Devt         111      11                520        65000                 Floating Production

      Woodside Energy      Laverda (WA-                                                                                                          Subsea Satellite to Floating
      Ltd                  271-P)               2000       2008   Firm Plan           65      20                850        35000                 Production

      BHP Billiton         Stybarrow
      Petroleum Pty Ltd    (WA-255-P(2)         2003       2007   Firm Plan           50      10                825        20000                 Floating Production

      BHP Billiton         Skiddaw (WA-                                                                                                          Subsea Satellite to Floating
      Petroleum Pty Ltd    255-P(2)             2003       2009   Possible            30      10                780        10000                 Production

      BHP Billiton         Eskdale (WA-                                                                                                          No Development Scheme
      Petroleum Pty Ltd    255-P(2)             2004       2011   Possible            15      10                822        10000                 Announced Yet




       www.infield.com                                                        Perth 22 February 2005                                                              40
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




                              Australasian Deepwater
                                       Will Rowley
                           Director of Analytical Services

                             Email: will@infield.com

                           Deepwater maps available – limited number
                       Presentation is available on request – large file




                                                                           www.infield.com
THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS




       www.infield.com     Perth 22 February 2005   42

				
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