The Georgian Defense Industry by ICDResearch

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									                               Defense




The Georgian Defense Industry –
Market Opportunities, Entry
Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts
to 2016
Reference code: DF0034MR

Published: March 2012




                           www.icd-research.com
Table of Contents


TABLE OF CONTENTS

1      Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 9
    1.1 What is this Report About? ........................................................................................................... 9
    1.2 Definitions ...................................................................................................................................... 9
    1.3 Summary Methodology.................................................................................................................11
    1.4 ICD Research Terrorism Index .....................................................................................................12
    1.5 About ICD Research......................................................................................................................12
    1.6 About Strategic Defence Intelligence (www.strategicdefenceintelligence.com) ......................12
2      Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 13
3      Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities ........................................................ 14
    3.1 Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast..............................................................................15
        3.1.1     Georgian annual defense expenditure to reach US$532.8 million by 2016 ............................................. 15
        3.1.2     NATO membership, threats posed by Russia and modernization plans drive defense expenditure ....... 18
        3.1.3     Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to decline ........................................................ 20
        3.1.4     Per-capita defense expenditure expected to reach US$123 by 2016 ...................................................... 22
    3.2 Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation .......................................................................................24
        3.2.1     Capital expenditure allocation expected to increase during the forecast period ...................................... 24
        3.2.2     Capital expenditure budget expected to grow during the forecast period ................................................ 27
        3.2.3     MoD to spend US$1685.4 million on revenue expenditure during the forecast period ............................ 29
    3.3 Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast ............................................................................31
        3.3.1     Homeland security market expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.24% during the forecast period ............... 31
        3.3.2     Human trafficking, drug trafficking and internal disputes to drive homeland security expenditure .......... 34
        3.3.3     Georgia falls under ―some risk‖ of terrorism category .............................................................................. 35
        3.3.4     Georgia has terrorism index score of 0.3 ................................................................................................. 36
        3.3.5     Georgia faces moderate risk of terrorist attack......................................................................................... 37
    3.4 Benchmarking with Key Global Markets .....................................................................................39
        3.4.1     Despite a small budget, Georgian defense expenditure will grow faster than leading spenders ............. 39
        3.4.2     Georgia’s per capita expenditure is less than its neighbors Russia and Turkey ...................................... 41
        3.4.3     Georgia is a very small figure in the global defense market ..................................................................... 42
        3.4.4     Georgia allocates a higher share of its GDP to defense than NATO requires ......................................... 43
    3.5 Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators ......................................................44
        3.5.1     Demand for armored vehicles expected to increase ................................................................................ 44
        3.5.2     Demand for fighter aircraft and missile defense systems expected to increase ...................................... 44
        3.5.3     Anti-tank and anti-aircraft capabilities expected to be in demand ............................................................ 44
        3.5.4     Defense and logistics systems to be enhanced to enable informed actions against attack .................... 44
        3.5.5     Specialized training will witness a surge in demand ................................................................................ 45
4      Defense Procurement Market Dynamics ........................................................................... 46


The Georgian Defense Industry – Market Opportunities, Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2016
                                                                                                                                                            Page 2
© ICD Research. This product is licensed and is not to be photocopied
                                                                                                                                           Published: March 2012
Table of Contents


    4.1 Import Market Dynamics ...............................................................................................................47
       4.1.1     Defense imports expected to recover by 2016 ......................................................................................... 47
       4.1.2     Ukraine is the major arms supplier to Georgia ......................................................................................... 48
       4.1.3     Armored vehicles, sensors and missiles account for the majority of Georgia’s arms imports ................. 49
    4.2 Export Market Dynamics ..............................................................................................................50
       4.2.1     Georgia does not export arms due to an undeveloped domestic arms industry ...................................... 50
5      Industry Dynamics .............................................................................................................. 51
    5.1 Five Forces Analysis.....................................................................................................................51
       5.1.1     Bargaining power of supplier: high ........................................................................................................... 52
       5.1.2     Bargaining power of buyer: low ................................................................................................................ 52
       5.1.3     Barriers to entry: high ............................................................................................................................... 52
       5.1.4     Intensity of
								
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