cement_report-h1_2011 by huangyuarong


									Trimester Market Overview

                                                   General Shipping News

    Lack of significant developments and stabilization of the       country's banking and financial institutions in combating risks.
   market in near low levels are the current sentiment for          The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) said it
   bulks. The only important news come from China and the           would set the minimum capital adequacy ratio for banks of
   decision of the local regulatory authorities to apply stricter   systematic significance at 11.5 percent, while that for banks
   banking rules. We expect the new set of rules to                 with non-systematic significance at 10.5 percent. The banks
   significantly reduce the new building capability of China        will have to meet the new standards by the end of 2013 and
   slowing down the financing by local banks. We expect the         the end of 2016, respectively. The criterion of a bank's
   market to continue the “buyer” status it has enter the last      significance will be determined within this year, CBRC said on
   year. The two main factors that determine the status are the     its website. Banks will be restricted in engaging in structurally
   oversupply of tonnage and the very weak – even                   complicated and highly-leveraged transactions to prevent
   questionable – recovery in the Europe and US. First quarter      excessive risk taking. The systematically important banks are
   results for the listed companies were poor and the shipping      also being told to reduce their share of loans to a single
   indices continued to underperform in comparison to the rest      debtor or group customer among their total capital assets.
   of the market.                                                   The new regulation standards will be implemented starting
                                                                    Jan. 1, 2012.

   A RECORD 20m dwt of dry bulk tonnage are expected to be           China has raised the reserve requirement ratios (RRR) for
   sold for demolition this year as oversupply keeps charter        banks for the fifth time this year to restrain price rises. The
   rates low and gives incentive for owners to sell off elderly     move, which came on Thursday evening, underscores the risk
   uneconomical tonnage..                                           that tightening measures will cause a slowdown in the
                                                                    world's second-biggest economy. Reserve ratios will increase
   Ship-owners suffering from fleet oversupply contracted just      by 0.5 percentage point from May 18, the People's Bank of
   227 ships to be built at shipyards during the first three        China, the central bank, said on its website. That will boost
   months of the year, the lowest volume since the third quarter    RRR levels for the nation's biggest lenders to a record 21
   of 2009.                                                         percent. The central bank moved after reports on
                                                                    Wednesday showed inflation and lending exceeded
   According to China Iron and Steel Association China's total      economists' estimates in April, with consumer prices rising
   steel output growth is set to fall in the coming months amid a   more than 5 percent for a second month. Premier Wen
   worsening power shortage, in turn causing the country's          Jiabao aims to tame inflation while sustaining growth amid
   coking coal demand to ease. With their average profit margin     signs the economy is cooling after an expansion that peaked
   hovering at just 2.9% in 2010, CISA said Chinese steel makers    at 11.9 percent last year.
   were facing growing uncertainties and their output would be
   especially vulnerable to any increase in raw material costs as    Large bulkers have seen the largest fall in secondhand values
   well as any further credit tightening by Beijing. The power      over the past year. Prices for a five-year-old capesize have
   shortages have started earlier than normal this year and         fallen 27% in the past twelve months to $44.6m, according to
   energy intensive and high polluting industries, such as steel    the latest Baltic Sale & Purchase Assessment. However,
   mills, are always one of the first sectors to be slapped with    values have done a lot better than rates. A year ago capesizes
   power rationing. China's total steel consumption annual          were earning around $48,800 per day. On Monday, it was
   growth would moderate to between 2.6% to 4.6% over 2011-         about $5,800. Secondhand prices for similar aged panamax
   2015, based on an economic growth of around 7%. That             bulkers have done little better and are down almost 19%
   compares with the stellar annual growth of around 12%            year-on-year to $31.7m, the Baltic says. Five-year-old
   recorded over the past five years.                               supramaxes have seen the smallest decline in values over the
                                                                    past year, down about 10% to $27.7m. In the tanker space
   China's banking regulator announced stricter regulation rules    values are also down, but not to such a degree, with VLCC
   for commercial banks to help improve capabilities of the         values down only 5.8% to 82.2m, according to the Baltic. A
2006-built aframax will now set you back around $39.3m              supply and increase innovation, it added. Regional financial
versus the $42.7m seen a year ago, a decline of just under 8%.      institutions will work to improve financial supports for
The one bright spot has been the MR product tanker segment          strategic emerging industries and environmentally-friendly
where values have actually risen by about 7% to $28.6m,             industries while tightening credit for heavily-polluting
Baltic figures show.                                                industries, it said. In addition, they will continue to
                                                                    implement differentiated credit policies to support housing
The momentum of China's economic growth remains strong              consumption and promote the healthy development of the
as the country rolls out policies to develop strategic emerging     property market, it said.
industries, accelerate the construction of low-income homes
and encourage private investment, according to a report of          Panamax newbuilding prices are expected to fall further 10%
the People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank.            in the next 18 months before reaching bottom, the price of a
Together with regional development strategies, increased            panama could reach the $30m barrier. A new panamax is
consumption and ongoing urbanization have provided                  presently valued at $33.5m by Clarksons, down by $1m since
abundant energy for the country's economic growth, the              the start of this year. At the end of 2008 the same ships had a
PBOC said in its 2010 China Regional Financial Operation            price tag of $46.5m.
Report. However, the report warned of risks posed by
slumping growth in some developed economies, as well as             THERE are at least three panamax bulk carriers available for
risks created by the sovereign debt crisis, increasing global       every one cargo in the Asia spot market, which is set to see
liquidity, rising international commodity prices and inflation      Pacific round voyage time charter rates plunge back below
pressures in emerging markets. The country also faces               $10,000 per day. However, “fierce competition” is not just
resource and environmental constraints in the domestic              isolated to the Pacific market, with owners in the Atlantic left
market, as well as pressure to transform its economic growth        fighting over the few spot cargoes available as the major
pattern and create sustainable economic growth, the report          grain houses continue to use in-house tonnage chartered in
said. The country's regional financial institutions will continue   on period contracts to move their goods.
to implement prudent monetary policies and manage the
relationship between economic growth and inflation, it said.              (Sources: Lloyd’s List, Asiasis, China Mining, CCCMC, MOFCOM,
They will also strive to maintain a reasonable overall financing
scale, maintain steady control over the country's credit

                                                   Cement Shipping News

 The outlook for cement remains grim hit by low demand                two cement plants in southern Russia for about
and the slowdown in the global market. While demand
                                                                      $200million. Billionaire Lev Kvetnoy , owner of Russia’s
for industrial goods is coming around demand for cement
                                                                      third-largest cement producer OAO Novoroscement, may
is weak. According to our analysis this is due to the
                                                                      acquire the assets from Baturina, according to Vedomosti.
oversupply of production tonnage of cement in China and
the lack of supply for the other industrial goods. Until
Europe and US start seeing solid growth number our                    Pakistan’s overseas shipments and domestic sales of
outlook for the market remains weak.                                  cement declined in May as construction slowed. Cement
 Regarding the specialized cement carriers we have seen               makers sold 1.9 million metric tons of cement in the local
a pick for scrapping vessels during the last months as a              market in May, compared with 2.1 million tons a year ago,
result of a very poor market. The seasonal drop of
                                                                      according to data posted on the website of the All-Pakistan
demand has come earlier this year leaving more than
                                                                      Cement Manufacturers Association. Exports fell to 875,955
usual vessels in idle status. We expect demand for
transport to pick up in the East and later in the year                tonsfrom 957,481 tons a year earlier. Overseas sales fell
(assuming the political situation will stabilize) in northern         12.5 percent to 8.5 million tons duringthe 11 months
Africa.                                                               ended May 31 and local sales declined 7.1 percentto 19.9
                                                                      million tons, according to the data.
Yelena Baturina , Russia’s richest business woman and the
wife of ousted Moscow mayor Yury Luzhkov, is likely to sell
Niger’s government plans a new cement plant capable of                   on the cement stocks has been overdone and if the
annual production of 540,000 tons, according to state-                   positives have been priced in. We reiterate our bullishview
owned Tele Sahel.                                                        on the cement sector. With only a 0.7% CAGR over the last
                                                                         decade, we think China’s cement prices are still cheap.
Angola plans to more than double cement production by                    With the potential easing of oversupply by 2013, we see
2013 in order to be self-sufficient in the building material.            strong support for cement prices going forward. That said,
Angola plans to renovate old plants and build new ones in                we consider eastern and southern China our most
different parts of the nation to raise output to as much as              favoured regions, given their strong fundamentals and less
7.5million metric tons in two years. The country currently               growth slowdown in new construction project starts in
produces 3.5million tons annually, or half of its needs. The             1Q11. In our Hong Kong-listed cement universe, we
southeast African nation, which is reconstructing its                    choose Anhui Conch as the top pick and least prefer West
infrastructure destroyed during the 27-year conflict that                China Cement (WCC).
ended in 2002, imports the balance mostly from China.
                                                                                               (Sources: Bloomberg, Business Daily)
An unidentified Chinese company plans to invest $500
million to set up two cement manufacturers in Zambia, the
southern African country’s antitrust commission said. The
company will build plants in the nation’s Eastern and
Northwestern provinces

97) Attachments 98) Options 99) Related Info BOC May 26
2011 04:59:47China Cement Sector - Cementing growth
during the 12th 5-year... 91) ☆ Page 1/1We have seen
share price corrections of over 10% across the board since
therapid run in 4Q10. Some investors wonder if the heat

www.oceanfinance.gr                                             Page 3                                                   April 2011


                                                                                             Baltic Exchange Indices One Year Back


       Ιαν-10 Μαρ-10 Μαϊ-10 Ιουλ-10   Σεπ-10     Νοε-10    Ιαν-11 Μαρ-11 Μαϊ-11


                                                                                                 Trimester Baltic Exchange Indices

         Μαρ-11                 Απρ-11                      Μαϊ-11

              BDI        BHSI            BPI

Bulk Fleet Stats
                     Current Vessels                                                  Newbuildings
Vessel Type            In     DWT               On            Under                 % Under             Orderbook          Broken
                    Service   ('000)           Order       Construction           Construction          As DWT %             Up
Supramax               1221     67230             407                   135               24,9          48         50,00         45
Capesize               1098     188157            270                   104               27,8          39         37,19         91
Panamax                1818     137891            628                   197               23,9          39         50,78        169
Handymax                712     31994              73                         5            6,4           1         11,65         51
Handysize              2613     70841             458                   166               26,6          50         30,58        769
Other Bulk
Ore                     150     36488              70                    33               32,0           2         86,37         34
Vehicle                 669     11442              39                    34               46,6          19         14,39        167
Gen Cargo              4583     58152             328                   261               44,3         108         21,09       1340
Refrigerated            523      4763                  2                      1           33,3           1          0,66        163
Ro-Ro                   429      4645              24                    10               29,4           5         11,58        108

                www.oceanfinance.gr                                  Page 4                                  April 2011
Cement Demand Charts

 Sum of Average
                             Q1.11                                                Q2.11
 DischargingCountry          cement        clinker       fly ash       slag       cement        clinker      slag
 Africa                                                                                           37.500
 Argentina                                    30.000
 Benin                                        38.000                                              26.500
 Brazil                                       41.000                                              40.000
 Bulgaria                         1.650
 Canada                                       25.000
 EastMed                         17.500
 Egypt                           12.500
 Equatorial Guinea                                                                                42.000
 Florida                                                   12.000
 Gabon                           25.000
 Israel                                                                                           15.000
 Italy                                        11.400                                   8.000      40.000
 Ivory Coust                                                            37.500
 Libya                           34.000       12.500
 Montenegro                       5.000
 Morocco                          7.500
 Nigeria                       216.000                                                77.500
 Russia                          10.000
 Spain                           10.000
 UAE                                                                                                          42.500
 UK                                                                                   23.500
 USA                                            7.500      14.000
 West Africa                                  20.000                                              20.000
 West Italy                                                                            5.000      30.000
 WestMed                          5.000

 Γενικό άθροισμα               344.150       185.400       26.000       37.500      114.000      251.000      42.500

 Table 1. & Table 2.

          Transportation demand for Q4.10 and Q1.11 per “Loading” and “Discharging” country.
          Transportation demand per cargo distributed per “Discharging” country.

            www.oceanfinance.gr                               Page 5                                       April 2011
Sum of Average Loading Country
Country          Egypt     France         Greece     Italy       Spain      Turkey     East Med      Romania    Lebanon
Adriatic                4.500
Africa                                                            67.500     35.000
Algeria                           5.000                                      10.500
Angola                                                                       30.000
Argentina                                                         30.000
Benin                                                             30.000     38.000
Brazil                                                                       41.000
Bulgaria                                                                      3.100
Cameroon                                   55.000                 27.500
Canada                                     25.000
EastMed                                                                                 30.000
Egypt                                                             57.500     54.000                              12.500
Equatorial Guinea                                                            33.000
Florida                                              12.000
France                           27.500                                       7.500
Gabon                                                                        25.000
Gambia                                                                       13.000
Gouatemala                                 27.500
Ireland                                                            4.000
Israel                                               10.250
Italy                                                 7.000       16.000    151.400
Ivory Cost                                           35.000
Ivory Coust                                          72.500
Libya                                                                       174.000
Montenegro                                            5.000
Morocco                                                                       7.500
Nigeria                                                          112.500    252.000
Romania                                                                       4.000
Russia                                                                       10.000                   120.000
Spain                             5.000     2.500                           110.000
Tunisia                                    35.000                            40.000
UAE                                                  50.000
UK                                         46.000
Uruguay                                                           50.000
USA                              13.500              14.000
USG                                                               22.500
West Africa                                20.000                            35.000

Γενικό άθροισμα         4.500    51.000   211.000   205.750      417.500   1.074.000    30.000        120.000    12.500

                    www.oceanfinance.gr                 Page 6                                   April 2011
 Cement Fleet History Details

Vessels Placed in Service
Date Reported       Vessel Name     Built            Owner          Vessel Type        DWT
   24/5/2011     CRISTINA MASAVEU   2009       ALVARGONZALEZ SA     Cement   Carrier   10   600
   24/5/2011         UBC CHILE      2010     INTERSHIP NAVIGATION   Cement   Carrier   15   053
  08/02/2011        UBC CYPRUS      2010     INTERSHIP NAVIGATION   Cement   Carrier   14   823
   25/1/2011        CARIBE STAR     1971     CARIBE TRANSMARITIM    Cement   Carrier    6   947
   11/1/2011        CONFIDENCE      2010                            Cement   Carrier   14   900

Vessels taken out of service
Date Reported       Vessel Name     Built            Owner          Vessel Type        DWT
   06/21/11       ALCEM CALACA      1979    JEBSEN SKIPSREDERI A    Cement   Carrier   11   601
   7/6/2011        CEMENT STAR      1981    SIRIOS SHIPMANAGEME     Cement   Carrier    6   135
   31/5/2011         TURBOCEM       1992         MEDCEM SRL         Cement   Carrier    6   037
   10/5/2011          SEALO I       1963     SEABULK SHIPPING SA    Cement   Carrier   38   353
   3/5/2011             IBIZA       1977           TBS SRL          Cement   Carrier    5   634
   15/2/2011        GLORY MOON      1973    JEBSEN SKIPSREDERI A    Cement   Carrier   25   424
   25/1/2011        ASANO No. 18    1974    PROSPERITY STEAMSHI     Cement   Carrier   10   267
   15/3/2011       MORNING STAR     2001      KDB CAPITAL CORP      Cement   Carrier   10   446
   26/4/2011      QUEEN ARROW II    1993          CTI GROUP         Cement   Carrier   10   640
   19/4/2011       ASIAN CARRIER    1974     SEABULK SHIPPING SA    Cement   Carrier   10   755
   29/3/2011           ELBIA        1978         LAFARGE SA         Cement   Carrier   14   100

Vessels scrapped
Date Reported       Vessel Name     Built            Owner          Vessel Type        DWT
   06/21/11        ALCEM CALACA     1979    JEBSEN SKIPSREDERI A    Cement   Carrier   11   601
   7/6/2011         CEMENT STAR     1981    SIRIOS SHIPMANAGEME     Cement   Carrier    6   135
   31/5/2011          SEALO I       1963     SEABULK SHIPPING SA    Cement   Carrier   38   353
   24/5/2011           ELBIA        1978         LAFARGE SA         Cement   Carrier   14   100
   10/5/2011       ASIAN CARRIER    1974     SEABULK SHIPPING SA    Cement   Carrier   10   755
   15/2/2011           IBIZA        1977           TBS SRL          Cement   Carrier    5   634
   15/2/2011        GLORY MOON      1973    JEBSEN SKIPSREDERI A    Cement   Carrier   25   424
   19/4/2011        ASANO No. 18    1974    PROSPERITY STEAMSHIP    Cement   Carrier   10   267

         www.oceanfinance.gr                Page 7                       April 2011
Change in ownership
                Vessel Name        Built    Old Owner       New Owner      Vessel Type        DWT
 06/28/11         VALBELLA         1992    ESSBERGER JT    DAL/JTE GROU    Cement Carrier      9 146
 7/6/2011     SIRIOS CEMENT I      1981    NAFTOTRADE      SIRIOS SHIPMA   Cement Carrier     13 550
 31/5/2011     MEDELIN FIRST       1 987   DAIICHI CHUO    WARUNA NUSA     Cement Carrier      7 502
 24/5/2011    MARTHA GOLDEN        1995    SEIHO KAIUN K   SEIHO KAIUN K   Cement Carrier      8 581
 24/5/2011    NAFTOCEMENT XV       2007    NAFTOTRADE      WOODSTREET      Cement Carrier      5 800
 3/5/2011       BULK ARROW         1969     CTI GROUP      BOSOWA LLOY     Cement Carrier     18 607
 1/3/2011      OCEAN ARROW         1978     CTI GROUP      BOSOWA LLOY     Cement Carrier      6 128
 1/2/2011      PACIFIC BREEZE      2010      UNKNOWN       JAPAN RAILWA    Cement Carrier      7 981
 18/1/2011        JOCELINE         1988    NIPPON YUSEN    ANDALAS BAHT    Cement Carrier      7 581
 26/4/2011        BRILLIANT        1973     CHINA GOVT     ANDALAS BAHT    Cement Carrier      8 062
 5/4/2011     UBC CARTAGENA        2009    INTERSHIP NAV   INTERSHIP NAV   Cement Carrier      8 380

             www.oceanfinance.gr                 Page 8                          April 2011

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