Q Poll 04052012

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Q Poll 04052012 Powered By Docstoc
					Maurice Carroll, Director,
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
(203) 582-5334

Rubenstein Associates, Inc.
Public Relations
Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026
  FOR RELEASE: APRIL 5, 2012

            ROMNEY TOPS SANTORUM 2-1 IN NEW YORK GOP RACE,
                  QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;
                OBAMA, GILLIBRAND BOTH HAVE BIG LEADS
  Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney thumps former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum
  54 – 21 percent among likely Republican primary voters in New York State, according to a
  Quinnipiac University poll released today.
            Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has 9 percent and Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul has 8
  percent. This is the first measure of likely Republican voters in New York by the independent
  Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and can’t be compared with earlier surveys of
  registered voters. Eight percent of likely GOP primary voters remain undecided and 39 percent
  of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before the April 24 New York
  presidential primary.
            Romney tops Santorum 60 – 17 percent among men and 48 – 25 percent among women.
  The former governor also leads among groups which have gone to Santorum in other states, 49 –
  26 percent among self-described conservatives and 45 – 26 percent among Tea Party members.
            “Assuming the numbers hold until April 24, Gov. Mitt Romney sweeps the statewide
  Republican vote – good for 34 delegates to the party convention. The question is whether
  Santorum can pick off one of the 29 districts, each good for two delegates?” said Maurice
  Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
            President Barack Obama and Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand have
  big leads – 2-1 in the Senate race – over possible challengers among New York State registered
  voters,
            New York State voters approve 56 – 38 percent of the job President Barack Obama is
  doing, his best score in almost a year and up from a 50 – 46 percent approval rating February 15.
                                                -more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/April 5, 2012 – page 2
       Today, women approve of the president 59 – 34 percent, up from 52 – 42 percent in
February. Men approve 52 – 43 percent, up from a negative 46 – 49 percent. Independent voters
split 45 – 45 percent, up from a negative 41 – 54 percent.
       Obama leads Romney 56 – 33 percent and tops Santorum 59 – 30 percent.
       Women back Obama over Romney 60 – 27 percent while men go Democratic 52 – 39
percent. Obama leads 45 – 37 percent among independent voters and 91 – 3 percent among
Democrats. Republicans back Romney 87 – 8 percent.
       “New York is still a super-blue state. President Barack Obama trounces any of the GOP
challengers in a general election match-up,” Carroll said. “That 94 – 1 percent lead among black
voters gives the president a jumbo cushion.”
                                            U.S. Senate Race
       U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has a 60 – 21 percent approval rating, her highest score ever
and topping her previous high of 54 – 22 percent in a June 29, 2011, Quinnipiac University poll.
Today, approval is 77 – 6 percent among Democrats and 58 – 21 percent among independent
voters. Republicans disapprove 49 – 36 percent. Men approve 57 – 26 percent while women
approve 63 – 16 percent.
       Gillibrand leads possible Republican challengers by margins of 2-1 or higher:
      57 – 27 percent over Brooklyn/Queens U.S. Rep. Robert Turner;
      57 – 23 percent over Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos;
      58 – 25 percent over businesswoman Wendy Long.
       In the Senate primary, 57 percent of Republicans are undecided. Turner has 19 percent,
followed by Long with 11 percent and Maragos with 7 percent.
       “If a happy campaign is one with a lot of opponents, even happier is one with a lot of
anonymous opponents,” Carroll said. “Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s three opponents, so far, fall
short of even the generic GOP vote. But it’s seven long months until Election Day.”
       From March 28 – April 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,597 New York State voters
with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell
phones. The survey includes 372 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/-
5.1 percent.
       The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia
and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data or RSS feed– http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or
follow us on Twitter.

                                                                                                  2
1. If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were:
Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote? (If
undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Gingrich, Romney, Santorum or Paul? (Table
includes leaners and early voters)

                     LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS.............
                                                        TEA PARTY
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Con    Mod    Yes    No

Gingrich              9%     7%    12%     10%    7%    13%     8%
Romney               54     60     48      49    66     45     57
Santorum             21     17     25      26    14     26     19
Paul                  8     10      5       9     3      9      8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1       -     1      -      -
DK/NA                 8      6     10       6    10      7      8

                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K

Gingrich             10%     9%    10%      8%   12%
Romney               62     51     41      57    69
Santorum             20     21     25      19    14
Paul                  5      9     13       7     4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1       -     -
DK/NA                 3     10     11       7     2


1a. (Candidate choice given q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change
your mind before the election?

                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1
                            CAND CHOICE
                     Tot    MR     RS

Mind made up         59%    71%    47%
Might change         39     26     53
DK/NA                 2      3      -


2. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for United States Senator were
being held today, and the candidates were: Wendy Long, Bob Turner, and George Maragos, for
whom would you vote?

                     REGISTERED REPUBLICANS
                     Tot    Men    Wom

Long                 11%    11%    11%
Turner               19     24     13
Maragos               7      8      5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      2
DK/NA                57     50     67




                                                                                         3
3. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Barack Obama the Democrat and - Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                                 Union
                     Tot      Rep       Dem    Ind   Men    Wom      Wht   Blk   HsHld

Obama                56%       8%       91%    45%   52%    60%      46%   94%    56%
Romney               33       87         3     37    39     27       43     1     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2        1         -      3     3      1        2     -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3        1         2      4     2      3        3     1      3
DK/NA                 7        3         4     11     5      9        6     4      7

                     WHITE...............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No HsHld

Obama                60%      36%       38%    36%   42%    49%      25%   38%    43%
Romney               33       50        49     53    49     37       61    50     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1        2         2      1     3      1        4     1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1        5         4      3     3      4        4     4      6
DK/NA                 5        7         6      7     3      9        7     7      7

                     COLLEGE DEG        ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...   AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No          <30K   30-50 50-100 >100K    18-34 35-54 55+

Obama                65%      51%       63%    56%   54%    55%      66%   55%    54%
Romney               27       36        25     30    35     40       22    34     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1        2         2      3     2      -        5     1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1        4         2      3     3      1        3     2      3
DK/NA                 6        8         9      7     6      4        5     8      5

TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack
Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote?
(2011 wording referenced "2012 election")

                     Apr 05    Feb 15     Dec 21
                     2012      2012       2011

Obama                56        52         53
Romney               33        35         35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2         2          3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3         4          2
DK/NA                 7         7          7




                                                                                         4
4. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were
Barack Obama the Democrat and - Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                                  Union
                     Tot      Rep       Dem   Ind    Men    Wom      Wht   Blk    HsHld

Obama                59%      11%       92%   52%    55%    63%      49%   95%     59%
Santorum             30       83         3    31     34     26       39     1      30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2        3         -     4      3      1        2     -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3        2         1     5      3      3        4     -       3
DK/NA                 6        2         4     8      6      7        6     3       7

                     WHITE...............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No HsHld

Obama                65%      39%       41%   38%    47%    52%      26%   42%     45%
Santorum             29       46        45    50     43     35       59    46      39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2        2         1     2      3      1        2     2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2        5         5     4      3      4        5     4       6
DK/NA                 3        8         7     6      4      7        8     6       8

                     COLLEGE DEG        ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...   AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No          <30K   30-50 50-100 >100K    18-34 35-54 55+

Obama                68%      53%       65%   58%    57%    60%      68%   58%     58%
Santorum             23       34        24    31     31     35       22    31      32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2        2         1     3      2      1        3     1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2        4         2     3      4      2        3     3       3
DK/NA                 5        7         8     5      7      3        4     7       6

TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack
Obama the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Apr 05    Feb 15
                     2012      2012

Obama                59        53
Santorum             30        35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2         1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3         3
DK/NA                 6         7


5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates
were - Bob Turner the Republican and Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat, for whom would you
vote?

                                                                                  Union
                     Tot      Rep       Dem   Ind    Men    Wom      Wht   Blk    HsHld

Turner               27%      75%        5%   26%    33%    21%      33%     3%    25%
Gillibrand           57       14        87    50     51     62       51     86     61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1        -         1     1      1      1        1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2        1         1     3      2      2        2      1      2
DK/NA                13        9         6    20     12     14       13      7     12




                                                                                           5
6. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates
were - George Maragos the Republican and Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat, for whom would
you vote?

                                                                            Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom     Wht   Blk   HsHld

Maragos              23%    68%     3%    22%    29%    18%     30%    1%    22%
Gillibrand           57     16     86     49     51     62      52    80     62
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2      1      2      2       1     4      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      1      4      3      2       2     3      2
DK/NA                15     14      7     23     15     16      14    12     13


7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates
were - Wendy Long the Republican and Conservative party candidate and Kirsten Gillibrand
the Democratic party candidate, for whom would you vote?

                                                                            Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom     Wht   Blk   HsHld

Long                 25%    70%     3%    24%    29%    20%     30%    4%    23%
Gillibrand           58     17     89     51     52     64      53    85     63
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      1      2      1       1     2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      4      3      2       3     1      2
DK/NA                13     10      5     20     13     13      12     8     12


9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as
United States Senator?

                                                                            Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom     Wht   Blk   HsHld

Approve              63%    42%    78%    61%    62%    64%     61%   73%    70%
Disapprove           25     48     12     26     30     21      28    13     23
DK/NA                12     10     10     13      7     16      10    14      7

                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...   AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <30K   30-50 50-100 >100K    18-34 35-54 55+

Approve              71%    58%    61%    66%    63%    69%     62%   64%    65%
Disapprove           22     28     21     26     27     28      23    25     26
DK/NA                 8     14     18      7     10      4      15    11      9

                     UpStat NYC    Sub

Approve              56%    71%    63%
Disapprove           27     21     29
DK/NA                16      8      9




                                                                                           6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as
United States Senator? (*High also 69% Oct 2001)

                                                                           APPROVE.......
                                                                           High    Low
                     Apr 05    Feb 15     Dec 21     Oct 26     Sep 20     Dec 08 Apr 15
                     2012      2012       2011       2011       2011       2004*   1999

Approve              63        60         62         61         59         69         51
Disapprove           25        29         27         28         31         16         22
DK/NA                12        11         11         11          9         15         28


10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as
United States Senator?

                                                                                             Union
                     Tot      Rep       Dem    Ind        Men        Wom        Wht    Blk   HsHld

Approve              60%      36%       77%    58%        57%        63%        58%   68%     62%
Disapprove           21       49         6     21         26         16         26     7      22
DK/NA                19       15        17     21         17         21         17    25      17

                     COLLEGE DEG        ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...              AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No          <30K   30-50 50-100 >100K               18-34 35-54 55+

Approve              68%      55%       59%    62%        61%        63%        61%   60%     61%
Disapprove           17       24        16     27         21         23         17    20      23
DK/NA                16       21        25     10         18         14         21    20      16

                     UpStat NYC         Sub

Approve              59%      63%       57%
Disapprove           23       16        25
DK/NA                18       20        18

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as
United States Senator?

                                                                           APPROVE.......
                                                                           High    Low
                     Apr 05    Feb 15     Dec 21     Oct 26     Sep 20     Apr 05 Feb 17
                     2012      2012       2011       2011       2011       2012    2009

Approve              60        47         50         50         52         60         28
Disapprove           21        26         23         24         23         21         10
DK/NA                19        27         27         26         24         19         62




                                                                                                     7
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

                                                                                             Union
                     Tot      Rep       Dem    Ind        Men        Wom        Wht    Blk   HsHld

Approve              56%      11%       88%    45%        52%        59%        45%    95%    57%
Disapprove           38       87         9     45         43         34         49      4     37
DK/NA                 6        2         3     10          5          6          6      1      6

                     WHITE...............................................
                     COLLEGE DEG                               BornAgnEv Miltry
                     Yes    No     Prot   Cath   Men    Wom    Yes    No HsHld

Approve              59%      36%       43%    36%        42%        48%        27%    40%    45%
Disapprove           36       58        54     58         53         45         70     54     50
DK/NA                 5        6         4      6          5          7          3      6      4

                     COLLEGE DEG        ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME...              AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No          <30K   30-50 50-100 >100K               18-34 35-54 55+

Approve              64%      51%       61%    57%        54%        55%        64%    56%    53%
Disapprove           30       43        32     38         41         41         32     38     41
DK/NA                 5        6         7      6          5          5          4      6      6


TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as
President?

                                                                           APPROVE.......
                                                                           High    Low
                     Apr 05    Feb 15     Dec 21     Oct 26     Sep 20     Feb 19 Aug 12
                     2012      2012       2011       2011       2011       2009    2011

Approve              56        50         50         50         50         72         45
Disapprove           38        46         45         45         45         17         49
DK/NA                 6         5          5          5          6         10          6




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