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Slide 1 Foresight for the European Research Area FORERA (PowerPoint)


									       Third International Seville Conference on
     Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
                16th- 17th October 2008

 Integrating FTA and Risk
Assessment Methodologies
              Koivisto, R., Wessberg, N., Eerola, A., Ahlqvist,
                T., Kivisaari, S., Myllyoja, J. and Halonen, M.
                   VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland
Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies



       Methods of FTA and risk assessment

       Prospective projects illuminating possible synergies and
       development challenges

       Towards an integrated approach

Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

  Methods of FTA and risk assessment
       The methods of Future oriented Technology Analysis
       •FTA - a common umbrella term for technology foresight, technology
       forecasting and technology assessment (Rader & Porter 2006)
       •Foresight (European Commission 2002): A systematic, participatory, future
       intelligence gathering and medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed
       at present-day decisions and mobilising joint action
       •SECI model (Nonaka & Takeutchi): foresight as dynamic shared knowledge
       creation processes that go repeatedly through externalisation, combination,
       internalisation and socialisation phases in a spiral way (Eerola and Väyrynen
       •Foresight is also defined as a process involving iterative periods of open
       reflection, networking, consultation and discussion, leading to the joint refining
       of future visions. Pre-foresight, recruitment, generation, action and renewal
       are the phases of the foresight process (Popper 2008).
       •The nature of foresight methodologies varies from creative to evidence based
       and from expertise to interaction based methods. Popper (2008) lists and
       describes 33 methods
       •From fixed to contingent and participatory approaches
Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

  “Popper’s diamond” (Popper 2008)
Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

  A systemic framework for methods (Saritas 2006)
Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

  Methods of FTA and risk assessment
       Risk assessment methodologies in industrial safety
       •Risk analysis is one of the methods contributing to the FTA exercises
       •Risk assessment and risk management concepts refer e.g. to risk
       assessment related to health risk, toxicology, ecology, food safety or industrial
       use, but also economical analysis -> here risk assessment is in the context of
       industrial safety
       •Complex systems, where possible accidents may have far-reaching
       •Strong development in the 1970s -> The use of risk analysis became a
       •Different safety management standards guide the implementation of industrial
       safety at the plant level: BS 8800, OHSAS 18001, ISO Guides (ISO 2002 and
       ISO 1999), and IEC standards
       •Various risk analysis methods: 62 methods reported by Tixier in 2002
       •Hazard and Operability study (IEC 2001) is one of the most important
       methods used in industry
       •Resilience - the new safety paradigm
Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

Rrisk analysis, risk assessment and risk management

            Scope definition

              identification                        Risk analysis


             Risk evaluation                    Risk

              Proposals for
                 actions                 Risk management
                                                                    Ref. IEC 1995

Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

  Prospective projects illuminating synergies

       Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure
       Systems - IRRIIS

       Managing opportunities, risks and uncertainties related to new
       businesses - INNORISK

       Climate change adaptation and risk assessmetn - CES

       A group of other projects
Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

  Case projects in view of dirrerent dimensions

              The most VTT foresight activities analysed
              by Könnölä et al. (forthcoming)

                                  Extensive                  Informative    Extensive

            Fixed                               Autonomous     Fixed                     Autonomous

            Consensual            Exclusive                                                      Diverse

                                    Extensive                                Extensive

            Fixed                             Autonomous     Fixed                       Autonomous

             CES                                                             Exclusive
Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

  Towards an integrated approach
       What is in common?
       •Start with the scope definition
       •The generation phase of the FTA process resembles the hazard/risk
       identification phase in risk assessment - also in terms of the large
       methodological variety
       •Risk estimation and FTA action phases are arranging the knowledge to be
       used in decision making

       Contingent and holistic processes
       •Because of the global networks risk management (RM) can not be based
       on traditional 'identify the risks and eliminate them' -thinking (normative RM)
       •Resilience engineering: a sure system tolerates errors or failures and
       protects itself against the consequences of such events (adaptive RM)
       •Foresighting Impact Assessment - the risks are considered as emerging
       already in the innovation process, and cover such areas as investment,
       communication, trust and general development risks (VTT's new
       developments, proactive RM strategy)
       •Integration with foresight -> more holistic RA and RM
Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

  RA and FTA methods vs. time frame

       Long time

                                                                        Technology foresight

                                                                      New emerging
                                                                    risk assessment

                                              Technology forecast

                       specific risk
                                      Technology assessment

                          specific risk
       Short time

                    Fixed approach                                      Contingent approach
Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

  Lessons learned from the case projects
       IRRIIS and CES: risk assessment methods are too detailed for
       analysing vague scenarios

       INNORISK: risk mapping may be better to be applied

       Similar basic assumptions in holistic future-oriented technology
       assessment or foresight methodologies and in holistic proactive risk
       assessment where safety is created in the process by evolving the
       intrinsic safety potential of the process

       Future and risks are ontologically unknown. Therefore we are
       forced to collect and construct the knowledge, create the
       understanding and sharing of it, in networks of people.
Integrating FTA and Risk Assessment Methodologies

       Common characteristics of FTA and Risk assessment:
       •Seek to manage the uncertainty of potential futures
       •Create knowledge to help decision making
       •Information on changes in environment, business and society in general is
       crucial for both assessments

       •Models, workshops, brainstrorms, interviews, literature reviews..
       •Risk assessment methods address the systematic working methods more
       •Risk assessment requires more detailed description of the target
       •A shift towards to a more contingent approach in RA - analogical with FTA
       •To be able to assess emerging risks new methods applying the sufficient
       features of as well risk assessment as FTA approaches are welcome

       Future risk assessment
       •Cross-boundary thinking and integration of FTA and theories of networks
       and organizational culture to create new methodology
       and tools as well as to carry out the risk assessments

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