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Tropical Cyclone Training

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					NINTH SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TRAINING ON TROPICAL
                  CYCLONE

             MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA

         05TH TO 16TH OF SEPTEMBER 2011


                    Presented by
                Mr. Jeremiah Malaibe
   FORECASTER: FORECASTING & WARNING CENTRE
         PNG NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

                 PH: +675 324 4583
                 FAX: +675 325 5544
           Email: publicwx@pngmet.gov.pg
Facts About Papua New Guinea

• Got Independence in September 16th
  1975.
• Culturally diverse, has over 800
  languages, which is the highest in the
  world.
• Share a border with Iran Jaya (or West
  Papua) in Indonesia.
• Population of about 6.7 million people.
  Port Moresby
Forecasting Centre
      TCWC
Area of Responsibly

                             Port Moresby
                             TCWC


       Port Moresby is designated as a TCWC
       with geographic specialization area of
       responsibly bounded by the EQ 141E,
       10S 141E, 09S 144E, 12S 147E, 12S
       155E, 08S 155E, 05S 160E, EQ 160E, EQ
       141E.
    ROLE OF FORECASTING &
       WARNING CENTRE
• PUBLIC & SEVERE WEATHER
• Marine Weather

• AVIATION WEATHER
• Issue TAF’S including for Solomon Islands

• TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKING &
  FORECASTING
         Tropical Cyclone Season
Annually, from November to May, Port Moresby produces a Tropical
Cyclone Potential Bulletin for National Disaster Centre (NDC) to keep
them abreast of the latest expectations of cyclone activity in the South
Pacific and to help them with their disaster relief planning.

Additional advisories are also provided as necessary during the life of a
tropical cyclone to fill any information gaps. During this same period, a
routine weekly forecaster-to-forecaster conference call is carried out
between Brisbane TCWC and Port Moresby forecasters to discuss the
situation and developments over the next few days.

Port Moresby also provide information to NDC for other disasters
earthquakes and Tsunamis.
                                    Seasonal & Monthly Variation of
                                          Tropical Cyclones
                                    Monthly Variation of Tropical Cyclones -
                                                                                                                        On the average, PNG receives one tropical
                                              1993/94 - 2008/09                                                         cyclone a season
                                                                y = -0.0833x + 2
                              4.5
                                                                  R² = 0.0246                                           Many of these have occurred in Jan/
                               4
                                                                 Monthly Total
                                                                                                                        February
Number of Tropical Cyclones




                              3.5
                               3
                                                                                                                        2002: TC Upia late in the season, May -
                              2.5                                                                                       June
                               2
                              1.5                                                                                       2007: TC Guba early in the season, Nov
                               1
                              0.5                                                                                       Seasonal Variation of Tropical Cyclones - 1993/04 -
                                                                                                                                             2008/09
                               0
                                    Nov Dec   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May Jun                                                                                    y = -0.0544x + 1.275
                                                                                                                                                                      R² = 0.0964
                                                                                   Number of Tropical Cyclones




                                                     Moths                                                       3.20
                                                                                                                                                                              Season
                                                                                                                 2.80
                                                                                                                 2.40
                                                                                                                 2.00
                                                                                                                 1.60
                                                                                                                 1.20
                                                                                                                 0.80
                                                                                                                 0.40
                                                                                                                 0.00




                                                                                                                                                 Season
Tracks of cyclones
Observational Network
  Impact of Tropical Cyclone
             Guba
TC Guba (11 Nov-20 Nov 2007)
•Continuous Rain for about six days caused
flooding in the Oro Province.
•Houses washed away due to 2m tides.
•Food gardens also washed away
•More than 145,000 people affected by
storm..
Track of Guba
Effected Area in Oro Province
      Tropical Cyclone Products

•   TC Potential Bulletin
•   TC Warnings
•   Gale & Strong Wind Warnings
•   Satellite images.
         Issues & Challenges
• Immediate Recruitment & Training of Operational
  Forecasters.
• Acquire Operational Tropical Cyclone Tracking Software
  to improve the quality and efficiency of its Tropical
  Cyclone warning system and products. Port Moresby
  TCWC does not have specialized Tropical Cyclone
  Tracking Software (TC Module, Synergy, etc..)
• Maintaining a good observational network.
• Require training in flood forecasting
THANK YOU ALL

				
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