Baytown by WinstonVenable

VIEWS: 94 PAGES: 40

									DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS
BAYTOWN SUBMARKET #23




 A. SUBMARKET DESCRIPTION

   1. LOCATION

     Baytown Submarket is located in Harris County in the southeast portion of the
     Houston MSA and is defined by the following boundaries: Interstate 10 to the
     north, Trinity Bay to the south, the Houston Ship Channel to the west, and the
     Chambers County line to the east. The Baytown Submarket was determined
     through interviews with area leasing and real estate agents, government
     officials, economic development representatives, and the personal observations
     of our analysts. The personal observations of our analysts include physical
     and/or socioeconomic differences in the market and a demographic analysis of
     the area households and population.

   2. COUNTY SEAT

     Houston (Harris County)



                                   III-876
3. LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 The city of Baytown operates under a home-rule charter that was adopted by
 the citizens of Baytown in 1945. The charter provides for the election of a city
 council consisting of a mayor and five council members.

4. AREA

 Area: 62.4 square miles
 2005 Population: 69,864
 2005 Households: 24,594

5. COMMUNITY SERVICES AND INFRASTRUCTURE

 A map illustrating the location of community services is on the following page.




                                 III-877
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Baytown: Community Services        D                                                                                             d
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                                                                                                                                                                                            Oleander St
                                                                                                                                            E Wallisville Rd




                                                                                                              134
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Stoneb
                                                                     S 12th St
                                                                     S 10th St
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               HUMBLE TX




                                                                      S 8th St
                                                                      S 6th St




                                                                                                                                             Prairie St




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Crosby Ceda
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                                                                                                                                               Ferol Ln




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  6. DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS

      a. POPULATION TRENDS

           The Baytown Submarket population base has increased by 1,895 between
           1990 and 2000. This represents a 2.8% increase from the 1990 total
           population, or an annual rate of 0.3%. The submarket population bases for
           1990, 2000, 2005 (estimated), and 2010 (projected) are summarized as
           follows:

                                                                YEAR
                                        1990            2000          2005         2010
                                     (CENSUS)        (CENSUS)    (ESTIMATED)   (PROJECTED)
     POPULATION                        66,500          68,395        69,864       71,960
     POPULATION CHANGE                    -            1,895         1,469         2,096
     PERCENT CHANGE                       -             2.8%          2.1%         3.0%
    Source: 2000 Census; Claritas; Vogt Williams & Bowen, LLC


           It is projected that the total population will increase by 2,096 people, or
           3.0%, between 2005 and 2010.

      b. HOUSEHOLD TRENDS

           Within the Baytown Submarket, the total number of households has
           increased by 726 (3.1%) between 1990 and 2000. Household trends
           within the Baytown Submarket are summarized as follows:

                                                                YEAR
                                       1990             2000          2005          2010
                                    (CENSUS)         (CENSUS)    (ESTIMATED)    (PROJECTED)
 HOUSEHOLDS                           23,402           24,128        24,594        25,359
 HOUSEHOLD CHANGE                        -               726           466           765
 PERCENT CHANGE                          -              3.1%          1.9%          3.1%
 HOUSEHOLD SIZE                         2.8              2.8           2.8           2.8
Source: 2000 Census; Claritas; Vogt Williams & Bowen, LLC


           Total household growth has been positive between 1990 and 2000, and is
           projected to continue to increase, when there will be a total of 25,359
           households in 2010. This is an increase of approximately 123 households
           annually.




                                           III-879
                               The submarket household bases by age are summarized as follows:

                     HOUSEHOLDS            2005 (ESTIMATED)                2010 (PROJECTED)     CHANGE 2005-2010
                        BY AGE            NUMBER     PERCENT             NUMBER      PERCENT   NUMBER   PERCENT
                       UNDER 25             1,832       7.4%               1,898        7.5%       66       3.6%
                         25 - 34            4,750      19.3%               4,293       16.9%     -457      -9.6%
                         35 - 44            5,154      21.0%               5,513       21.7%     359        7.0%
                         45 - 54            4,966      20.2%               4,794       18.9%     -172      -3.5%
                         55 - 64            3,549      14.4%               4,149       16.4%     600      16.9%
                         65 - 74            2,114      8.6%                2,443        9.6%     329      15.6%
                         75 - 84            1,645      6.7%                1,606        6.3%      -39      -2.4%
                      85 & HIGHER            584        2.4%                663         2.6%       79     13.5%
                             TOTAL         24,594     100.0%              25,359      100.0%      765       3.1%
                    Source: 2000 Census; Claritas; Vogt Williams & Bowen, LLC

                               Between 2005 and 2010, the greatest growth among household age groups
                               was among households between the ages of 55 and 74. Household growth
                               is also occurring at a fairly rapid rate among households over age 85,
                               indicating a growing need for housing for seniors in the market.

                               Households by tenure are distributed as follows:

                                                        2000 (CENSUS)                2005 (ESTIMATED)
                           TENURE                HOUSEHOLDS       PERCENT         HOUSEHOLDS PERCENT
                       OWNER-OCCUPIED               14,395          59.7%            14,768       60.0%
                       RENTER-OCCUPIED               9,733          40.3%             9,826       40.0%
                                 TOTAL              24,128         100.0%            24,594       100.0%
                      Source: 2000 Census; Claritas; Vogt Williams & Bowen, LLC

                               The market is dominated by owner-occupied households, as evidenced by
                               the fact that nearly 60% of all occupied housing units are owner-occupied.

                               The household size within the submarket, based on the 2000 Census, is
                               distributed as follows:

 PERSONS PER               2000 (CENSUS)                         2005 (ESTIMATED)             CHANGE 2000-2005
 HOUSEHOLD            HOUSEHOLDS     PERCENT                HOUSEHOLDS       PERCENT       HOUSEHOLDS PERCENT
    1 PERSON             5,517         22.9%                   5,635           22.9%           118         2.1%
   2 PERSONS             7,096         29.4%                   7,207           29.3%           111         1.6%
   3 PERSONS             4,285         17.8%                   4,390           17.8%           105         2.5%
   4 PERSONS             3,686         15.3%                   3,728           15.2%            42         1.1%
   5 PERSONS             2,029          8.4%                   2,054            8.4%            25         1.2%
  6+ PERSONS             1,515          6.3%                   1,581            6.4%            66         4.4%
         TOTAL           24,128       100.0%                   24,595         100.0%           467         1.9%
Source: 2000 Census; Claritas; Vogt Williams & Bowen, LLC

                               The distribution of households by persons per household for the submarket
                               is similar to other urban markets.




                                                               III-880
                    Based on the 2000 Census, the following is a distribution of housing units
                    in the submarket by year of construction.

                                                          HOUSING UNITS
                          YEAR           OWNER          PERCENT RENTER      PERCENT
                    1999 TO MARCH 2000     210             1.5%     291       3.0%
                        1995 TO 1998       626             4.3%     239       2.5%
                        1990 TO 1994       523             3.6%     444       4.6%
                        1980 TO 1989      1,918           13.3%    2,004     20.6%
                        1970 TO 1979      2,952           20.5%    3,293     33.8%
                        1960 TO 1969      2,842           19.7%    1,425     14.6%
                        1940 TO 1959      4,508           31.3%    1,807     18.6%
                      1939 OR EARLIER      816             5.7%     230       2.4%
                                 TOTAL    14,395         100.0%    9,733     100.0%

                    Approximately 9.4% of the owner-occupied homes in the submarket were
                    built since 1990. From 1995 through March 2000, the market absorbed
                    836 new owner-occupied homes, translating into approximately 13 homes
                    per month over this period.

                            HOUSING UNIT BUILDING PERMITS FOR
                                  HARRIS COUNTY, TEXAS
                                          1999    2000     2001                2002     2003      2004
 UNITS IN SINGLE-FAMILY STRUCTURES       16,055  18,244   20,122              23,052   26,450    28,020
 UNITS IN 2-UNIT MULTIFAMILY
 STRUCTURES                                82      22       18                 144      92        212
 UNITS IN 3- AND 4-UNIT MULTIFAMILY
 STRUCTURES                                644     96       394                811      71        63
 UNITS IN 5+ UNIT MULTIFAMILY
 STRUCTURES                              9,081    6,203    5,885              10,332   14,370    8,100
 UNITS IN ALL MULTIFAMILY STRUCTURES      9,807   6,321    6,297              11,287   14,533    8,375
                           TOTAL UNITS   25,862  24,565   26,419              34,339   40,983    36,395
Source: SOCDS



                                               SUBSTANDARD UNITS 2000 CENSUS
                                                                   LACKING
                              TOTAL                 COMPLETE      COMPLETE
                             HOUSING                 PLUMBING     PLUMBING                PERCENT
          TENURE              UNITS      PERCENT    FACILITIES    FACILITIES            SUBSTANDARD
       OWNER-CCUPIED           14,395      59.7%       14,352           43                  0.3%
       RENTER-CCUPIED           9,733      40.3%        9,630          103                  1.1%
                TOTAL          24,128     100.0%       23,982          146                  0.6%
     Source: 2000 Census




                                              III-881
                                            POVERTY STATUS 2000 CENSUS
                                   POPULATION NOT LIVING IN    57,657                         84.3%
                                   POVERTY
                                   POPULATION LIVING IN        10,738                         15.7%
                                   POVERTY
                                                      TOTAL*   68,395                         100.0%
                                 Source: Summary File 3, Census of Population and Housing, U.S. Bureau of
                                 the Census, 2000
                                 * Population for whom poverty status is determined



                                                      TURNOVER RATE
                                                HOUSTON MSA                               64.4%
                                 Source: 2003 IREM Income/Expense Analysis for Conventional Apartments



                                           PERCENTAGE OF RENT-OVERBURDENED
                                           BAYTOWN SUBMARKET           29.0%
                                 Source: 2000 Census, Claritas



                  7. INCOME TRENDS

                     The distribution of households by income within the Baytown Submarket is
                     summarized as follows:

    HOUSEHOLD                      2000 (CENSUS)                    2005 (ESTIMATED)                 2010 (PROJECTED)
       INCOME                  NUMBER         PERCENT              NUMBER         PERCENT           NUMBER         PERCENT
  LESS THAN $10,000              2,564          10.6%                2,369           9.6%             2,231           8.8%
   $10,000 - $19,999             3,160          13.1%                2,841          11.6%             2,588          10.2%
   $20,000 - $29,999             3,203          13.3%                2,771          11.3%             2,541          10.0%
   $30,000 - $39,999             3,211          13.3%                3,099          12.6%             2,732          10.8%
   $40,000 - $49,999             2,667          11.1%                2,623          10.7%             2,783          11.0%
   $50,000 - $59,999             2,251           9.3%                2,196           8.9%             2,242           8.8%
   $60,000 - $74,999             2,586          10.7%                2,744          11.2%             2,763          10.9%
   $75,000 - $99,999             2,205           9.1%                2,681          10.9%             3,075          12.1%
  $100,000 & HIGHER              2,281           9.5%                3,270          13.3%             4,404          17.4%
               TOTAL            24,128         100.0%               24,594         100.0%            25,359         100.0%
   MEDIAN INCOME                       $39,755                             $44,522                          $49,222
Source: 2000 Census; Claritas; Vogt Williams & Bowen, LLC


                     In 2000, the median household income was $39,755. This increased 12.0%
                     to $44,522 in 2005. By 2010, it is estimated the median household income
                     will be $49,222, an increase of 10.6% over 2005. This is significantly below
                     the current HUD median income of $61,000 for the Houston MSA.




                                                         III-882
              The following tables illustrate renter household income by household size for
              2000, 2005 (estimated), 2006 (projected), 2007 (projected), 2008 (projected)
              and 2009 (projected) for the submarket:

      RENTER                                                2000 CENSUS
   HOUSEHOLDS               1-PERSON    2-PERSON      3-PERSON      4-PERSON   5+-PERSON      TOTAL
     $0 - $10,000               673         342           289           165        140         1,610
   $10,000 - $20,000            692         246           298           230        218         1,684
   $20,000 - $30,000            522         366           314           266        212         1,679
   $30,000 - $40,000            406         450           256           254        203         1,569
   $40,000 - $50,000            218         257           175           160        181          990
   $50,000 - $60,000             97         312           145           132        104          791
       $60,000+                 219         472           317           211        191         1,410
               TOTAL           2,826       2,445         1,794         1,418      1,250        9,733
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Claritas


      RENTER                                              2005 ESTIMATED
   HOUSEHOLDS               1-PERSON    2-PERSON      3-PERSON 4-PERSON        5+-PERSON      TOTAL
     $0 - $10,000               722         326           278         148          128         1,602
   $10,000 - $20,000            710         214           262         192          181         1,560
   $20,000 - $30,000            484         310           263         216          166         1,439
   $30,000 - $40,000            441         474           254         227          183         1,579
   $40,000 - $50,000            253         267           172         181          189         1,061
   $50,000 - $60,000            105         312           138         103           96          753
       $60,000+                 321         611           402         263          237         1,833
               TOTAL           3,035       2,513         1,768       1,330        1,179        9,826
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Claritas


      RENTER                                              2006 PROJECTED
   HOUSEHOLDS               1-PERSON    2-PERSON      3-PERSON 4-PERSON        5+-PERSON      TOTAL
     $0 - $10,000               725         318           272         145          124         1,585
   $10,000 - $20,000            712         210           258         187          176         1,543
   $20,000 - $30,000            479         301           257         210          161         1,407
   $30,000 - $40,000            441         463           248         220          176         1,547
   $40,000 - $50,000            265         271           173         183          191         1,084
   $50,000 - $60,000            109         312           140         104           99          764
       $60,000+                 352         644           423         275          251         1,945
               TOTAL           3,083       2,519         1,769       1,325        1,177        9,874
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Claritas

      RENTER                                              2007 PROJECTED
   HOUSEHOLDS               1-PERSON    2-PERSON      3-PERSON 4-PERSON        5+-PERSON      TOTAL
     $0 - $10,000               729         310           266         142          120         1,567
   $10,000 - $20,000            715         206           253         183          170         1,526
   $20,000 - $30,000            474         291           250         204          155         1,374
   $30,000 - $40,000            441         451           241         213          169         1,515
   $40,000 - $50,000            277         276           174         186          193         1,106
   $50,000 - $60,000            113         313           141         106          102          774
       $60,000+                 383         677           445         287          265         2,058
               TOTAL           3,131       2,525         1,770       1,321        1,175        9,922
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Claritas




                                            III-883
      RENTER                                              2008 PROJECTED
   HOUSEHOLDS               1-PERSON    2-PERSON      3-PERSON 4-PERSON        5+-PERSON   TOTAL
     $0 - $10,000               732         303           260         139          117      1,550
   $10,000 - $20,000            717         202           248         178          165      1,509
   $20,000 - $30,000            469         282           244         198          149      1,342
   $30,000 - $40,000            441         440           235         206          162      1,483
   $40,000 - $50,000            289         281           175         188          195      1,128
   $50,000 - $60,000            118         313           143         107          104       785
       $60,000+                 415         711           467         300          280      2,172
               TOTAL           3,180       2,531         1,771       1,316        1,172     9,970
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Claritas


      RENTER                                              2009 PROJECTED
   HOUSEHOLDS               1-PERSON    2-PERSON      3-PERSON 4-PERSON        5+-PERSON   TOTAL
     $0 - $10,000               735         295           254         136          113      1,533
   $10,000 - $20,000            719         198           243         173          160      1,492
   $20,000 - $30,000            464         272           238         191          144      1,309
   $30,000 - $40,000            441         428           228         199          155      1,451
   $40,000 - $50,000            301         286           176         191          197      1,151
   $50,000 - $60,000            122         314           144         109          107       796
       $60,000+                 446         745           489         312          294      2,286
               TOTAL           3,228       2,537         1,772       1,311        1,170     10,018
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Claritas


              The following tables illustrate renter household income (55+) by household
              size for 2000, 2005 (estimated), 2006 (projected), 2007 (projected), 2008
              (projected) and 2009 (projected) for the submarket:

     RENTER                                                 2000 CENSUS
 HOUSEHOLDS 55+             1-PERSON    2-PERSON      3-PERSON      4-PERSON   5+-PERSON   TOTAL
    $0 - $10,000               305          87            12            15          0        419
  $10,000 - $20,000            284          53            36            10          1        385
  $20,000 - $30,000             69          44            21            14         14        163
  $30,000 - $40,000             47          67            18             7          9        148
  $40,000 - $50,000             39          14             5             1         10         69
  $50,000 - $60,000             8           62            10             0         10         91
      $60,000+                  27         106             6            21         25        185
              TOTAL            778         433           110            68         70       1,460
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Claritas

     RENTER                                              2005 ESTIMATED
 HOUSEHOLDS 55+             1-PERSON    2-PERSON      3-PERSON 4-PERSON        5+-PERSON   TOTAL
    $0 - $10,000               338          89            13        13              0        453
  $10,000 - $20,000            296          57            34        10              2        399
  $20,000 - $30,000             68          44            16        14             10        152
  $30,000 - $40,000             51          81            18         9             15        174
  $40,000 - $50,000             44          13             4         2             12        75
  $50,000 - $60,000             10          77             5         2              9        104
      $60,000+                  39         137             5        29             26        236
              TOTAL            846         498            96        79             75       1,593
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Claritas




                                            III-884
     RENTER                                              2006 PROJECTED
 HOUSEHOLDS 55+             1-PERSON    2-PERSON      3-PERSON 4-PERSON     5+-PERSON   TOTAL
    $0 - $10,000               343          89            13        14           0        458
  $10,000 - $20,000            300          58            35        10           2        406
  $20,000 - $30,000             67          43            17        15          10        151
  $30,000 - $40,000             52          79            19         9          15        173
  $40,000 - $50,000             45          14             5         2          14        81
  $50,000 - $60,000             10          74             5         2           8        99
      $60,000+                  43         147             5        31          28        254
              TOTAL            859         503            99        84          78       1,622
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Claritas

     RENTER                                              2007 PROJECTED
 HOUSEHOLDS 55+             1-PERSON    2-PERSON      3-PERSON 4-PERSON     5+-PERSON   TOTAL
    $0 - $10,000               347          88            13        14           0        462
  $10,000 - $20,000            304          59            36        11           3        412
  $20,000 - $30,000             66          42            18        15          10        151
  $30,000 - $40,000             53          76            20         9          14        173
  $40,000 - $50,000             46          15             7         3          15        86
  $50,000 - $60,000              9          70             5         2           8        95
      $60,000+                  47         157             5        34          30        272
              TOTAL            873         508           102        88          80       1,651
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Claritas

     RENTER                                              2008 PROJECTED
 HOUSEHOLDS 55+             1-PERSON    2-PERSON      3-PERSON 4-PERSON     5+-PERSON   TOTAL
    $0 - $10,000               351          88            13        14           0        467
  $10,000 - $20,000            308          61            36        11           3        419
  $20,000 - $30,000             65          41            18        16          11        151
  $30,000 - $40,000             55          74            21         9          14        172
  $40,000 - $50,000             47          16             8         3          17        91
  $50,000 - $60,000              9          67             5         3           7        91
      $60,000+                  51         168             4        36          31        291
              TOTAL            886         514           105        92          83       1,680
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Claritas

     RENTER                                              2009 PROJECTED
 HOUSEHOLDS 55+             1-PERSON    2-PERSON      3-PERSON 4-PERSON     5+-PERSON   TOTAL
    $0 - $10,000               355          88            13        15           0        471
  $10,000 - $20,000            312          62            37        11           4        425
  $20,000 - $30,000             64          40            19        17          11        150
  $30,000 - $40,000             56          72            21         8          14        171
  $40,000 - $50,000             48          17             9         4          19        96
  $50,000 - $60,000              9          63             5         3           7        86
      $60,000+                  56         178             4        38          33        309
              TOTAL            900         519           109        96          86       1,709
Source: Ribbon Demographics, Claritas



              Data from the preceding tables is used in our demand estimates.




                                            III-885
8. LOCAL ECONOMIC PROFILE AND ANALYSIS

    a. LABOR FORCE PROFILE

         The labor force within the Baytown Submarket is relatively diversified;
         however, Services and Retail Trade comprise a little more than 66% of the
         submarket labor force.

         Employment within the Baytown Submarket as of 2005 is distributed as
         follows:

         SIC GROUP         ESTABLISHMENTS PERCENT                                    EMPLOYEES           PERCENT
AGRICULTURE & NATURAL
RESOURCES                        25         1.2%                                           97               0.4%
MINING                            7         0.3%                                            67              0.3%
CONSTRUCTION                     118        5.5%                                          1,209             4.6%
MANUFACTURING                    88         4.1%                                         2,525              9.7%
TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES       75          3.5%                                         1,104             4.2%
WHOLESALE TRADE                  83          3.9%                                          936              3.6%
RETAIL TRADE                     564        26.4%                                         7,213            27.6%
F.I.R.E.                         190         8.9%                                         1,235             4.7%
SERVICES                         899        42.1%                                        10,115            38.7%
GOVERNMENT                       66          3.1%                                         1,521             5.8%
NON-CLASSIFIABLE                 19         0.9%                                           112              0.4%
                   TOTAL        2,134      100.0%                                        26,134            100.0%
Source: 2000 Census; Claritas; Vogt Williams & Bowen, LLC
Note: Due to the fact that this survey is conducted of establishments and not of residents, some employees may not live
within the submarket. However, these employees are included in our labor force calculations because their places of
employment are located within the submarket.


         According to the Greater Houston Partnership, the 10 largest private
         employers within the Houston area comprise a total of 124,118 employees.
         These employers are summarized as follows:

                                                                                                    TOTAL
                  INDUSTRY                                        BUSINESS TYPE                   EMPLOYED
      MEMORIAL HERMANN HEALTH CARE                                 HEALTHCARE                        16,300
      CONTINENTAL AIRLINES                                       TRANSPORTATION                      16,000
      UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS –
      MD ANDERSON CANCER CENTER                                     HEALTHCARE                       16,000
      HALLIBURTON                                                   OIL REFINING                     14,000
      UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
      MEDICAL BRANCH AT GALVESTON                                 HEALTHCARE                          12,318
      KROGER                                                       GROCERY                            12,000
      ARAMARK                                                    FOOD SERVICES                        10,000
      RELIANT ENERGY                                           ELECTRIC SUPPLIER                      9,500
      HCA                                                         HEALTHCARE                           9,000
      HEWLETT PACKARD                                        COMPUTER/ELECTRONICS                      9,000
                                                                             TOTAL                   124,118




                                           III-886
b. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

  The employment base has increased by 5.3% over the past five years in
  Harris County, less than the Texas state average of 6.4%.

  Unemployment rates for Harris County and Texas are illustrated as follows:

                                    UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
           YEAR             HARRIS COUNTY           TEXAS
            1996                 5.6%                5.8%
            1997                 5.2%                5.4%
            1998                 4.4%                4.9%
            1999                 4.8%                4.7%
            2000                 4.4%                4.4%
            2001                 4.8%                5.0%
            2002                 6.2%                6.3%
            2003                 6.9%                6.7%
            2004                 6.4%                6.1%
            2005                 5.8%                5.6%

  The unemployment rate in Harris County has remained between 4.4% and
  6.9%, constant with the state average since 1996.




                             III-887
RENTAL HOUSING ANALYSIS (SUPPLY) – BAYTOWN
SUBMARKET- #23
  A. OVERVIEW OF RENTAL HOUSING

      Vogt Williams & Bowen, LLC identified and personally surveyed a total of
      three Tax Credit developments, 10 market-rate developments, and one Tax
      Credit/government-subsidized developments in the Baytown Submarket. The
      surveyed Tax Credit developments have a combined occupancy rate of 97.8%;
      the surveyed market-rate developments have a combined occupancy rate of
      92.4%; and the surveyed Tax Credit/government-subsidized property has an
      occupancy rate of 100.0%. According to the on-line property inventory list of
      Tax Credit allocations provided by the Texas Department of Housing and
      Community Affairs (TDHCA), there are no additional Tax Credit properties
      in the Baytown Submarket. There is one Tax Credit property allocated in
      2005 and not yet built in this submarket (Rosemont at Garth).

      This survey was conducted to establish the overall strength of the rental
      submarket, establish and confirm vacancy and rent levels, and gather
      information on the current rental housing situation resulting from hurricanes
      Katrina and Rita.

      Following is the list of Tax Credit properties surveyed, both in person and by
      telephone:

                                      TAX CREDIT
 MAP                                    PROJECT          YEAR BUILT/     TOTAL         TARGET
 I.D.            PROJECT NAME             TYPE           RENOVATED       UNITS         MARKET
   1         TWNHMS. OF BAY FOREST         TAX               2000          128         FAMILY
   7          BAYCITY VILLAGE APTS.        TAX             1975/1993        62          FAMILY
  13              SHADY CREEK              TAX               1998           88          SENIOR
   3       VILLAGE APTS. TEXAS PUEBLO      TGS             1971/2000       210         FAMILY
TAX- Tax Credit
TGS- Tax Credit & Government-subsidized




                                          III-888
        Following is the list of market-rate properties surveyed, both in person and by
        telephone:

                                    MARKET-RATE
        MAP                             YEAR BUILT/           TOTAL      TARGET
        I.D.       PROJECT NAME         RENOVATED             UNITS      MARKET
          2          WEST LODGE             1979                198       FAMILY
          4         CEDAR RIDGE             1983                252      FAMILY
          5       CAMDEN BAYTOWN            1999                272      FAMILY
          6         BAKER DOWNS             1975                400      FAMILY
          8        LOGAN’S POINTE           1983                253      FAMILY
          9           RAINTREE            1986/2002             248      FAMILY
         10       STONEBROOK I & II         2000                326       FAMILY
         11     TRESTLES OF BAYTOWN         1978                219       FAMILY
         12          AVALON BAY             1982                220      FAMILY
         14     WOODCREEK VILLAGE           1985                42       FAMILY

        Following is the list of government-subsidized properties surveyed, both in
        person and by telephone:

                           GOVERNMENT-SUBSIDIZED
MAP                                 PROJECT YEAR BUILT/                TOTAL TARGET
I.D.          PROJECT NAME            TYPE   RENOVATED                 UNITS MARKET
  3      VILLAGE APTS. TEXAS PUEBLO    TGS     1971/2000                 210 FAMILY

        The following table summarizes the family Tax Credit (non-subsidized) rental
        market:

                                                                              GROSS RENT
     BEDROOMS     UNITS           DISTRIBUTION       VACANT      PERCENT        RANGE
    ONE-BEDROOM     74                 26.6%            1          1.4%         $441-$679
    TWO-BEDROOM    145                 52.2%            3          2.1%         $522-$771
   THREE-BEDROOM    59                 21.2%            2          3.4%         $649-$784
            TOTAL  278                100.0%            6          2.2%

        The following table summarizes the age-restricted (age 55 and older) Tax
        Credit (non-subsidized) rental market:

                                                                              GROSS RENT
        BEDROOMS     UNITS        DISTRIBUTION      VACANT        PERCENT       RANGE
       ONE-BEDROOM     56              63.6%           0            0.0%        $577-$679
       TWO-BEDROOM     32              36.4%           0            0.0%        $756-$771
               TOTAL  88              100.0%           0            0.0%




                                      III-889
 The following table summarizes the overall market-rate rental market:

                                                                         GROSS RENT
  BEDROOMS     UNITS       DISTRIBUTION      VACANT       PERCENT          RANGE
 ONE-BEDROOM    1,095           45.1%           86          7.9%           $474-$795
 TWO-BEDROOM    1,143           47.0%           87          7.6%           $594-$955
THREE-BEDROOM    192             7.9%           11          5.7%          $800-$1,156
         TOTAL 2,430           100.0%          184          7.6%

 Note the above chart includes market-rate units at market-rate properties and
 market-rate units at mixed-income properties (Tax Credit/market-rate).

 The following table summarizes the family government-subsidized rental
 market:

        BEDROOMS           UNITS    DISTRIBUTION      VACANT     PERCENT
      ONE-BEDROOM            50          23.8%          0          0.0%
      TWO-BEDROOM            90          42.9%          0          0.0%
     THREE-BEDROOM           50          23.8%          0          0.0%
     FOUR-BEDROOM            20           9.5%          0          0.0%
              TOTAL         210         100.0%          0          0.0%

 The following table summarizes the age-restricted (age 55 and older)
 government-subsidized rental market:

       BEDROOMS           UNITS     DISTRIBUTION VACANT          PERCENT
      ONE-BEDROOM           56           63.6%      0              0.0%
      TWO-BEDROOM           32           36.4%      0              0.0%
              TOTAL        88           100.0%      0              0.0%

 We rated each market-rate property surveyed on a scale of A through E. All
 properties were rated based on quality and overall appearance (i.e., aesthetic
 appeal, building appearance, landscaping, and grounds appearance).

 Following is a distribution of market-rate properties by quality rating and
 number of units.

              QUALITY RATING       TOTAL UNITS         PERCENT
                    A-                 272               11.2%
                    B+                 574               23.6%
                    B                  450               18.5%
                    B-                 661               27.2%
                    C+                 473               19.5%




                               III-890
Of the Tax Credit units that were surveyed by Vogt Williams & Bowen in
person, 50.7% have a quality rating of B+; the remaining units have a quality
rating of B-.

               QUALITY RATING     TOTAL UNITS         PERCENT
                     B+               216               50.7%
                     B-               210               49.3%

The following tables summarize the range and median size of the surveyed
units by property type and bedroom type:

                   TAX CREDIT – NET SQUARE FEET
           UNIT TYPE     MINIMUM      MAXIMUM            MEDIAN
         ONE-BEDROOM        426          671               638
         TWO-BEDROOM        700         1,613             1,000
        THREE-BEDROOM      1,050        1,200             1,200



                  MARKET-RATE – NET SQUARE FEET
           UNIT TYPE    MINIMUM      MAXIMUM    MEDIAN
         ONE-BEDROOM        504         755       660
         TWO-BEDROOM        756        1,067      892
        THREE-BEDROOM      1,041       1,178     1,130



            GOVERNMENT-SUBSIDIZED – NET SQUARE FEET
           UNIT TYPE   MINIMUM     MAXIMUM      MEDIAN
         ONE-BEDROOM      625          625        625
         TWO-BEDROOM      730          730        730
        THREE-BEDROOM     900          900        900
        FOUR-BEDROOM     1,050        1,050      1,050

The following tables summarize the distribution of appliances and unit
amenities among all non-subsidized surveyed properties:

                              APPLIANCES
        APPLIANCE           PROJECTS   PERCENT            UNITS
          RANGE                14        100.0%            2,708
      REFRIGERATOR             14        100.0%            2,708
        ICEMAKER                3         21.4%             846
       DISHWASHER              12        85.7%             2,646
         DISPOSAL              12         85.7%            2,646
       MICROWAVE                1         7.1%              U/C
   U/C Under construction




                              III-891
                             UNIT AMENITIES
             AMENITY        PROJECTS   PERCENT              UNITS
           AC – CENTRAL        14        100.0%              2,708
         FLOOR COVERING        14        100.0%              2,708
          WASHER/DRYER          2         14.3%               314
          WASHER/DRYER
              HOOK-UP            11          78.6%           2,448
          PATIO/BALCONY          12          85.7%           2,646
            CEILING FAN          11          78.6%           2,398
             FIREPLACE            4          28.6%            939
         SECURITY SYSTEM          1           7.1%             42
              WINDOW
           TREATMENTS            14          100.0%          2,708



                            PROJECT AMENITIES
             AMENITY        PROJECTS   PERCENT              UNITS
                POOL           12        85.7%               2,558
               ON-SITE
           MANAGEMENT            13          92.9%           2,620
             LAUNDRY             13          92.9%           2,666
            CLUBHOUSE             8          57.1%           1,860
          FITNESS CENTER          7          50.0%           1,810
          JACUZZI/SAUNA           3          21.4%            867
           PLAYGROUND             6          42.9%           1,123
           TENNIS COURT           3          21.4%            900
           SPORTS COURT           1           7.1%            219
              STORAGE             1           7.1%            128
                LAKE              1           7.1%            220
          SECURITY GATE           5          35.7%           1,269
         BUSINESS CENTER          3          21.4%            686
         CAR WASH AREA            5          35.7%           1,089
            PICNIC AREA           5          35.7%           1,089

B. PLANNED MULTIFAMILY DEVELOPMENT

  Based on the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs allocation
  list of affordable housing projects and interviews with local building and
  planning representatives, it was determined that there are two multifamily
  housing projects planned for the area.

     •    Rosemont at Garth Road is a family Tax Credit property at 6033 Garth
          Road that was allocated in 2005. Construction should be completed in
          the next two to three months. The 250 units planned for this property
          have been considered in our demand estimates.

     •    Bayview Apartments is in the permitting and development stage and
          will be a market-rate family property at 6900 North Main Street. The
          building department had no additional details on this property.



                                III-892
C. HOUSING CHOICE VOUCHER HOLDERS

  According to the Baytown Housing Authority, there are approximately 727
  Housing Choice Vouchers issued throughout the city. Housing authority
  representatives stated that there are approximately 76 households currently on
  the waiting list for additional Vouchers, which is closed. There are 182
  households on the waiting list for public housing in Baytown. The payment
  standards for Baytown are equal to the current Fair Market Rents (FMR) for
  the Houston MSA.

                         PAYMENT STANDARDS
                STUDIO UNIT                 $551
                ONE-BEDROOM UNIT            $612
                TWO-BEDROOM UNIT            $743
                THREE-BEDROOM UNIT          $990
                FOUR-BEDROOM UNIT          $1,245

D. HURRICANE IMPACT ON THE RENTAL HOUSING MARKET

  Most of the properties interviewed in the Baytown Submarket indicated that
  hurricane evacuees have had little impact on rents and occupancy rates. The
  surveyed affordable properties reported high occupancies prior to the arrival
  of hurricane evacuees. Only one affordable property reports two evacuees,
  which is less than one percent of the Tax Credit units surveyed in the
  submarket. Property managers at unrestricted properties report at least 128
  evacuees (5.3% of market-rate units surveyed), with occupancy rates
  increasing by 5% to 23%. Most of these households are using FEMA
  Vouchers. Occupancy rates at market-rate properties continue to struggle in
  this submarket, despite the presence hurricane evacuees.

  Based on the information in our survey, hurricane evacuees occupy
  approximately 4.5% of the surveyed rental units in the Baytown Submarket.
  According to data provided by HISTA, there were approximately 9,826 renter
  households in this submarket in 2005. Applying 4.5% to the 9,826 renter
  households results in as many as 442 households living in the Baytown
  Submarket potentially displaced by the hurricanes.

  A map indicating the location of apartments surveyed is on the following on
  page.




                                III-893
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 C
DEMAND ANALYSIS – BAYTOWN SUBMARKET #23
A. DEMAND FOR TAX CREDIT HOUSING

  There are no clear or concise methodologies to forecast the need for Tax
  Credit housing. This is because housing markets are static with households
  often entering and exiting by tenure and economic profile. This position
  statement will discuss the potential pitfalls and limitations of various
  methodologies and present a recommended solution.

  There appear to be only two sources of demand for new Tax Credit housing.
  This is represented by a positive increase in income-qualified households
  and replacement of functionally obsolete product. The first source of
  demand is generally easily quantifiable but presents challenges to accurately
  forecast. This is especially true as we get further from the 2000 Census and
  development expands into previously undeveloped areas. The problem is
  further compounded by the fact that housing market analysts often fail to
  analyze income-appropriate household growth by household size.
  Projections based only on income often include estimates of smaller
  households even though they are over income-qualified due to their
  household size limitation (i.e. income analysis based on a five-person limit
  set at $46,000 will include two-person households with incomes above their
  maximum but below $46,000, thus overstating the number who are
  qualified). Therefore, caution should be exercised when considering income
  household growth alone.

  1. Overstatement of demand

     A much larger challenge, and one that creates greater demand for Tax
     Credit housing, is replacement of functionally obsolete product.
     Unfortunately, measurement of this is very subjective and imprecise.
     However, in most inner-city locations or non-growth areas, this is the
     only need for Tax Credit units.

     The approval of Tax Credit units in these areas has created, in some
     instances, an overbuilt market that is characterized by high vacancy rates
     and low rents. However, this overbuilding only occurs when there is no
     corresponding decline in the existing housing stock. This decline could
     occur through demolition or replacement of functionally obsolete
     product.




                                III-895
It is easy to illustrate how a market can be impacted if rental household
growth is minimal. Hypothetically, consider a market that has 1,000
income-appropriate rental housing units (under Tax Credit guidelines)
with a current vacancy rate of 4% (or 40 vacant units). Assume a 150-
unit Tax Credit property of new construction is approved and built. This
market then goes from a 1,000-unit market to a 1,150-unit market.
Without any corresponding increase in income-qualified households or
reduction in the existing supply by demolitions, condominium
conversions, or some other use, the area vacancy rate goes from 4% to
16.5% (40+150/1,150).

This is a very simplistic example but does illustrate the ease at which a
market can get out of balance if it does not experience positive
household growth.         In the current environment, this has been
compounded by the fact that some income-qualified households have
left the rental housing market in favor of home ownership, a decline in
younger, first-time renters due to profound demographic shifts, and, in
some markets, a “doubling-up” of households to save on housing costs.
This is particularly true in some inner-city markets where there has been
a decline in the Housing Choice Voucher supply.

This illustration also assumes an isolated market.           Households,
particularly rental households, are constantly on the move in response to
jobs, educational opportunities, crime, quality of life, families, church,
and a whole host of other factors. Thus, in the previous market
illustration, this new 150-unit project would likely attract new
households from outside the market as well as households improving
their current housing. This creates vacancies in units with the lowest
quality or in units with the lowest perception of value (i.e. properties
priced well above the market).

If, however, this hypothetical market approved 150-units to either
replace or renovate an existing project (or projects), the market would
remain in balance. The problem for analysts is establishing the
appropriate number of units that should be replaced or renovated.
Projecting too many units yields high penetration rates (the aggregate
number of Tax Credit units compared to the number of income-qualified
households) and precludes reasonable absorption and occupancy levels.
If too few affordable units are developed, the market remains stagnant
and tenants remain underserved.




                           III-896
2. Methodologies used to date

   A variety of methodologies have attempted to tackle this issue.
   Substandard units reported in the Census are one source. This is
   typically a very small number and does not accurately reflect functional
   obsolescence. The number of households who are rent overburdened is
   a second factor often considered. However, the Census makes no
   distinction for those households who have elected to be rent
   overburdened or those who are already housed in Tax Credit properties.
   Frankly, a sizeable share of tenants in Tax Credit properties are rent
   overburdened since the program does not specify the share of income
   used for rent.

   We have also reviewed methodologies that use turnover as a measure of
   demand. This methodology does nothing to address the issue of a
   balanced market. (Turnover is a good tool to forecast absorption of a
   project since it considers the number of renters in the market at one time
   considering a move).

3. Methodology based on replacement and growth

   It is our opinion that the only accurate macro approach to forecasting
   Tax Credit demand is to consider both new household growth of
   income-qualified households and replacement of functionally obsolete
   product. As discussed, household growth is generally easier to forecast
   than the number of functionally obsolete units. We propose to forecast
   functionally obsolete product by taking a share of the existing rental
   product over 35 years old (built in 1970 or older) and in need of
   replacement on an annual basis. Considering that the useful life of most
   residential product is 40 years, rental product built prior to 1970 can be
   considered as being functionally obsolete. The share of the product
   functionally obsolete is the issue. It is our opinion that approximately
   2.5% (1/40) of the existing rental product that meets this criteria could
   be designated as functionally obsolete. This would essentially upgrade
   or replace 25% of older housing stock over a decade, a reasonable time
   period.

   There are, like all methodologies, some obvious shortcomings. Without
   a complete field survey, it is impossible to establish whom this obsolete
   product is serving. Given its age, it is most likely serving tenants paying
   rents at the lowest third of the rent spectrum. This is likely at rent levels
   just below Tax Credit program rents. We argue that for practical
   reasons, all of these units would be appropriate to upgrade. Naturally, it
   is critical to preserve many of these older units with Rental Assistance.




                               III-897
     Another shortcoming is that this methodology generally precludes older
     areas from experiencing new product. We recommend that if a
     developer builds new product, there must be a demonstration that a
     similar number of rental units have been taken out of the rental base
     through demolition or conversion to another use. It is our opinion that
     there is no benefit to only allow rehabilitations in older, inner-city areas
     without a corresponding decrease in the rental stock. Current new
     designs are more energy efficient, are innovative, often incorporate more
     appropriate allocations of space, and the use of more desirable unit and
     project amenities.

  4. Conclusions

     There have been a wide variety of methodologies employed to address
     the component of replacement support for slow or no-growth markets.
     Most of these methodologies have used Census data to approximate
     demand. Unfortunately, while the methodologies have generated
     support numbers that appear reasonable, in practice they have
     contributed to overbuilding. The methodology proposed here only uses
     two components of demand: new income-appropriate household growth
     and replacement or renovation of existing product. We believe this will
     provide a more accurate guideline for establishing demand.

     It is important to note that any estimate of demand must be verified with
     a market study. Further, a development that proposes replacement
     support, must demonstrate through the market study or other verification
     that there has been a corresponding decline in the existing rental base.
     There may be problems reconciling applications responding to new
     household growth and those that respond to replacement. Subsequent
     “tie-breaker” criteria could be considered to address this issue.

B. DETERMINATION OF INCOME ELIGIBILITY

  To determine demand from income-eligible households, we must first
  establish the income range required to qualify for residency in Low-Income
  Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) units for the Baytown Submarket.

  1. Maximum Income Limits

     Under the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program, household
     eligibility is based on household income not exceeding the targeted
     percentage of Area Median Household Income (AMHI), depending
     upon household size.




                                 III-898
The Baytown Submarket has a median household income of $61,000 for
2005 (Houston MSA). We have analyzed affordable housing demand
for the following income cohorts: 0% to 30% AMHI, 31% to 40%
AMHI, 41% to 50% AMHI, 51% to 60% AMHI, 61% to 80% AMHI,
and 81% to 100% AMHI. The following table summarizes the
maximum allowable income by household size for the Baytown
Submarket at 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80%, and 100% of AMHI.

                       TARGETED       MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE
   HOUSEHOLD SIZE        AMHI              INCOME
                          30%               $12,810
                          40%               $17,080
                          50%               $21,350
     ONE-PERSON
                          60%               $25,620
                          80%               $34,150
                         100%               $42,700
                          30%               $14,640
                          40%               $19,520
                          50%               $24,400
     TWO-PERSON
                          60%               $29,280
                          80%               $39,050
                         100%               $48,800
                          30%               $16,470
                          40%               $21,960
                          50%               $27,450
    THREE-PERSON
                          60%               $32,940
                          80%               $43,900
                         100%               $54,900
                          30%               $18,300
                          40%               $24,400
                          50%               $30,500
     FOUR-PERSON
                          60%               $36,600
                          80%               $48,800
                         100%               $61,000
                          30%               $19,770
                          40%               $26,360
                          50%               $32,950
     FIVE-PERSON
                          60%               $39,540
                          80%               $52,700
                         100%               $65,900

The calculations presented in the report are based on a five-person
household for the general population (family) and a two-person
household for seniors age 55 and older.




                        III-899
  2. Income-Appropriate Range

     Leasing industry standards typically require households to have rent to
     income ratios of 27% to 40%. Generally, market-rate properties require
     a lower rent to income ratio, while an acceptable rent to income ratio for
     low-income units is typically around 35%.

     However, to avoid overstating demand at any of the income levels, the
     minimum income is calculated as the maximum income of the previous
     band, with the exception of the 0% to 30% income band, which has a
     minimum income of $0.

C. DEMAND CALCULATIONS

  The following tables summarize projected demand for affordable housing
  for all renter households from 2006 through 2009. Note the 2005 Baseline
  Total Renter Households includes all renter households, while the demand
  analysis only considers households earning up to 100% AMHI ($65,900).
  Therefore, the total Baseline Targeted Income-Qualified Renter Households
  for each income band will not total all renter households. For example,
  there were a total of 9,826 renter households in the Baytown Submarket in
  2005; out of this total, 7,331 were income-qualified renter households. This
  results in 2,495 renter households earning above $65,900.




                                III-900
                                   2005 BASELINE DEMAND – BAYTOWN SUBMARKET BY GENERAL OCCUPANCY
                                                                                                              TARGETED AMHI
APPROPRIATE INCOME RANGE BY TARGETED AMHI                              0%-30%          31% - 40%           41% - 50%  51% - 60%                    61% - 80%          81% - 100%
  1-PERSON                                                            ($0-$12,810)   ($12,810-$17,080)   ($17,080-$21,350)   ($21,350-$25,620)   ($25,620-$34,150)   ($34,150-$42,700)
  2-PERSON                                                            ($0-$14,640)   ($14,640-$19,520)   ($19,520-$24,400)   ($24,400-$29,280)   ($29,280-$39,050)   ($39,050-$48,800)
  3-PERSON                                                            ($0-$16,470)   ($16,470-$21,960)   ($21,960-$27,450)   ($27,450-$32,940)   ($32,940-$43,900)   ($43,900-$54,900)
  4-PERSON                                                            ($0-$18,300)   ($18,300-$24,400)   ($24,400-$30,500)   ($30,500-$36,600)   ($36,600-$48,800)   ($48,000-$60,100)
  5+-PERSON                                                           ($0-$19,770)   ($19,770-$26,360)   ($26,360-$32,950)   ($32,950-$39,540)   ($39,540-$52,700)   ($52,700-$65,900)

BASELINE TOTAL RENTER HOUSEHOLDS (HISTA DATA)                            9,826             9,826               9,826               9,826               9,826               9,826
TARGETED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS
   1-PERSON                                                               921              303                 273                 207                 395                 326
   2-PERSON                                                               425              104                 147                 151                 451                 280
   3-PERSON                                                               447              144                 144                 142                 246                 173
   4-PERSON                                                               307              128                 132                 138                 236                 139
   5+-PERSON                                                              305              110                 114                 121                 223                  99
= BASELINE TARGETED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                   2,405             789                 810                 759                1,551               1,017



              Based on the American Housing Survey, the estimated share of demand by bedroom type and household size in the Houston
              MSA is distributed as follows:

                                                DEMAND BY BEDROOM AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE
                                                 STUDIO / 1-BR. 2-BR.       3-BR.                                      4-BR.
                               1-PERSON HH           67%         25%          8%                                          -
                               2-PERSON HH           35%         46%         15%                                         4%
                               3-PERSON HH           16%         55%         22%                                         7%
                               4-PERSON HH           11%         45%         36%                                         8%
                              5+-PERSON HH           10%         42%         31%                                        17%
                             Source: American Housing Survey (Houston MSA, 1998)
                             HH-Household




                                                                        III-901
      These percentages, applied to the number of income-qualified renter
      households in this submarket, are as follows:

                      DEMAND BY BEDROOM TYPE AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE
                                       STUDIO /
                                         1-BR.      2-BR.       3-BR.      4-BR.    TOTAL
                         0%-30%           617        230          74         0        921
                        31%-40%           203         76          24         0        303
    1-PERSON            41%-50%           183         68          22         0        273
  HOUSEHOLD             51%-60%           139         52          17         0        208
                        61%-80%           265         99          32         0        396
                       81%-100%           218         82          26         0        326
                         0%-30%           149        196          64         17       426
                        31%-40%            36         48          16         4        104
    2-PERSON            41%-50%            51         68          22         6        147
  HOUSEHOLD             51%-60%            53         69          23         6        151
                        61%-80%           158        207          68         18       451
                       81%-100%            98        129          42         11       280
                         0%-30%            72        246          98         31       447
                        31%-40%            23         79          32         10       144
    3-PERSON            41%-50%            23         79          32         10       144
  HOUSEHOLD             51%-60%            23         78          31         10       142
                        61%-80%            39        135          54         17       245
                       81%-100%            28         95          38         12       173
                         0%-30%            34        138         111         25       308
                        31%-40%            14         58          46         10       128
    4-PERSON            41%-50%            15         59          48         11       133
  HOUSEHOLD             51%-60%            15         62          50         11       138
                        61%-80%            26        106          85         19       236
                       81%-100%            15         63          50         11       139
                         0%-30%            31        128          95         52       306
                        31%-40%            11         46          34         19       110
   5+-PERSON            41%-50%            11         48          35         19       113
  HOUSEHOLD             51%-60%            12         51          38         21       122
                        61%-80%            22         94          69         38       223
                       81%-100%            10         42          31         17       100
                         0%-30%        903 (38%)  938 (39%)   442 (18%)  125 (5%)    2,408
                        31%-40%        287 (36%)  307 (39%)   152 (19%)   43 (5%)     789
                        41%-50%        283 (35%)  322 (40%)   159 (20%)   46 (6%)     810
   TOTAL (%)*
                        51%-60%        242 (32%)  312 (41%)   159 (21%)   48 (6%)     761
                        61%-80%        510 (33%)  641 (41%)   308 (20%)   92 (6%)    1,551
                       81%-100%        369 (36%)  411 (40%)   187 (18%)   51 (5%)    1,018
            OVERALL TOTALS 2,594 (35%)           2,931 (40%) 1,407 (19%) 405 (6%)
*Due to rounding, some totals may not equal 100%




                                    III-902
                                                                                BAYTOWN SUBMARKET
                                                                                    2006 DEMAND
 I. GROWTH DEMAND                                                                       0%-30%           31% - 40%           41% - 50%         51% - 60%         61% - 80%         81% - 100%
    HOUSEHOLD-BASED:                                                                  ($0-$20,100)    ($13,000-$26,700)   ($17,300-$33,400) ($21,700-$40,100) ($26,000-$53,500) ($34,700-$66,900)
    2005 TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                                        2,405               789                810               759              1,551              1,017
    2006 TOTAL ESTIMATED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                              2,409               790                799               756              1,542              1,015
    ESTIMATED ANNUAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH                              4                  1                 -11                -4                -9                 -2
    NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
    PROJECTION PERIOD (1YEAR)                                                              4                  1                 -11                -4                -9                -2
 II. TOTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95.0% OCCUPIED) MARKET
    2005 INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS (OCCUPIED UNITS)                             2,405               789                810               759              1,551              1,017
    (+) NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
     PROJECTION PERIOD (1 YEAR)                                                            4                  1                 -11                -4                -9                 -2
    (=) TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS IN 2006                                 2,409               790                799               756              1,542              1,015
    TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
    OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                     2,536               832                841               795              1,623              1,068
 III. EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT
    TOTAL OCCUPIED TARGETED RENTAL UNITS 2006                                           2,409                790                799                756             1,542              1,015
    (+) ESTIMATED # OF VACANT UNITS (VACANCY %)*                                       0 (0.0%)           0 (0.0%)           10 (1.3%)          0 (0.0%)         117 (7.6%)         77 (7.6%)
    (+) PLANNED AND PROPOSED TARGETED UNITS DURING PROJECTION
    PERIOD**                                                                               0                  0                  0                250                0                  0
    (=) NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                             2,409               790                809              1,006             1,659              1,092
 IV. TOTAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
    TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
   OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                      2,536               832                841               795              1,623              1,068
    (-) TOTAL NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                       2,409               790                809              1,006             1,659              1,092
   (+) 2.5% OF EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT BUILT PRIOR TO 1970***                              44                 14                15                 14                0                  0
    (=) TOTAL TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (1 YEAR)                                                                              171                56                  46               -196               -36               -24
    STUDIO/1-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
   (1 YEAR)****                                                                           65                 20                  16               -62                -12               -9
    2-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
  (1 YEAR)****                                                                            66                 22                  18               -81                -15               -10
    3-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
   (1 YEAR)****                                                                           31                 11                  9                -41                -7                -4
    4-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (1 YEAR)****                                                                               9                  3                   3                -12            -2                -1
Note: 2005 income-qualified households based on 2005 income limits. 2006-2009 income limits projected based on historical increase (2000-2005).
* Units at 0% to 30% and 31% to 40% are assumed to be 100% occupied. The appropriate Tax Credit vacancy rate is applied to units at 41% to 50% and 51% to 60%. The submarket market-rate
vacancy rate is applied to units at 61% to 100%. All 250 units at Rosemont at Garth, allocated in 2004 and under construction, are assumed to be at 60% AMHI.
**Based on information obtained from TDHCA and local planning officials. Some unit mixes may be estimated. Units under construction at the date of this report were included in the above table.
***Estimated based on share of income-qualified renter households up to 60% AMHI.
****Based on share of demand by bedroom type calculated.




                                                                                           III-903
                                                                                BAYTOWN SUBMARKET
                                                                                    2007 DEMAND
 I. GROWTH DEMAND                                                                       0%-30%           31% - 40%           41% - 50%         51% - 60%         61% - 80%         81% - 100%
    HOUSEHOLD-BASED:                                                                  ($0-$20,400)    ($13,200-$27,100)   ($17,600-$33,900) ($22,000-$40,700) ($26,400-$54,300) ($35,200-$67,900)
    2005 TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                                        2,405               789                810               759              1,551              1,017
    2007 TOTAL ESTIMATED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                              2,413               791                788               752              1,533              1,013
    ESTIMATED ANNUAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH                              4                  1                 -11                -4                -9                 -2
    NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
    PROJECTION PERIOD (2 YEARS)                                                            8                  2                 -22                -7                -18               -4
 II. TOTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95.0% OCCUPIED) MARKET
    2005 INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS (OCCUPIED UNITS)                             2,405               789                810               759              1,551              1,017
    (+) NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
     PROJECTION PERIOD (2 YEARS)                                                           8                  2                 -22                -7               -18                 -4
    (=) TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS IN 2007                                 2,413               791                788               752              1,533              1,013
      TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
    OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                     2,539               833                829               792              1,614              1,066
 III. EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT
    TOTAL OCCUPIED TARGETED RENTAL UNITS 2007                                           2,413                791                788                752             1,533              1,013
    (+) ESTIMATED # OF VACANT UNITS (VACANCY %)*                                       0 (0.0%)           0 (0.0%)           10 (1.3%)          0 (0.0%)         117 (6.7%)         77 (6.7%)
    (+) PLANNED AND PROPOSED TARGETED UNITS DURING PROJECTION
    PERIOD**                                                                               0                  0                  0                250                0                  0
    (=) NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                             2,413               791                798              1,002             1,650              1,090
 IV. TOTAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
    TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
   OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                      2,539               833                829               792              1,614              1,066
    (-) TOTAL NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                       2,413               791                798              1,002             1,650              1,090
   (+) 2.5% OF EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT BUILT PRIOR TO 1970***                              88                 29                30                 28                0                  0
    (=) TOTAL TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
     (2 YEARS)                                                                            215                70                  61               -183               -36               -24
    STUDIO/1-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (2 YEARS)****                                                                         81                 25                  22               -58                -12               -9
    2-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (2 YEARS)****                                                                         84                 27                  24               -75                -15               -10
    3-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (2 YEARS)****                                                                         39                 14                  12               -38                -7                -4
    4-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
   (2 YEARS)****                                                                        11                   4                   3               -12                  -2                -1
Note: 2005 income-qualified households based on 2005 income limits. 2006-2009 income limits projected based on historical increase (2000-2005).
* Units at 0% to 30% and 31% to 40% are assumed to be 100% occupied. The appropriate Tax Credit vacancy rate is applied to units at 41% to 50% and 51% to 60%. The submarket market-rate
vacancy rate is applied to units at 61% to 100%.
**Based on information obtained from TDHCA and local planning officials. Some unit mixes may be estimated. Units under construction at the date of this report were included in the above table.
***Estimated based on share of income-qualified renter households up to 60% AMHI.
****Based on share of demand by bedroom type calculated.




                                                                                           III-904
                                                                                BAYTOWN SUBMARKET
                                                                                    2008 DEMAND
 I. GROWTH DEMAND                                                                       0%-30%           31% - 40%           41% - 50%         51% - 60%         61% - 80%         81% - 100%
    HOUSEHOLD-BASED:                                                                  ($0-$20,700)    ($13,400-$27,500)   ($17,800-$34,400) ($22,300-$41,300) ($26,800-$55,100) ($35,700-$68,900)
    2005 TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                                        2,405               789                810               759              1,551              1,017
    2008 TOTAL ESTIMATED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                              2,416               792                777               749              1,524              1,011
    ESTIMATED ANNUAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH                              4                  1                 -11                -4                -9                 -2
    NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
    PROJECTION PERIOD (3 YEARS)                                                           11                  3                 -33               -11                -27               -6
 II. TOTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95.0% OCCUPIED) MARKET
    2005 INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS (OCCUPIED UNITS)                             2,405               789                810               759              1,551              1,017
    (+) NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
    PROJECTION PERIOD (3 YEARS)                                                            11                 3                 -33               -11               -27                 -6
    (=) TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS IN 2008                                 2,416               792                777               749              1,524              1,011
    TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
    OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                     2,543               834                818               788              1,604              1,064
 III. EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT
    TOTAL OCCUPIED TARGETED RENTAL UNITS 2008                                           2,416                792                777                749             1,524              1,011
    (+) ESTIMATED # OF VACANT UNITS (VACANCY %)*                                       0 (0.0%)           0 (0.0%)           10 (1.3%)          0 (0.0%)         116 (6.7%)         77 (6.7%)
    (+) PLANNED AND PROPOSED TARGETED UNITS DURING PROJECTION
    PERIOD**                                                                               0                  0                  0                250                0                  0
    (=) NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                             2,416               792                787               999              1,640              1,088
 IV. TOTAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
    TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
   OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                      2,543               834                818               788              1,604              1,064
    (-) TOTAL NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                       2,416               792                787               999              1,640              1,088
   (+) 2.5% OF EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT BUILT PRIOR TO 1970***                             132                 43                44                42                 0                  0
    (=) TOTAL TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (3 YEARS)                                                                             259                85                  75               -169               -36               -24
    STUDIO/1-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (3 YEARS)****                                                                         97                 31                  26               -54                -12               -9
    2-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
   (3 YEARS)****                                                                          101                33                  30               -69                -15               -10
    3-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (3 YEARS)****                                                                         48                 16                  15               -35                -7                -4
    4-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
   (3 YEARS)****                                                                        13                   5                   4               -11                  -2                -1
Note: 2005 income-qualified households based on 2005 income limits. 2006-2009 income limits projected based on historical increase (2000-2005).
* Units at 0% to 30% and 31% to 40% are assumed to be 100% occupied. The appropriate Tax Credit vacancy rate is applied to units at 41% to 50% and 51% to 60%. The submarket market-rate
vacancy rate is applied to units at 61% to 100%.
**Based on information obtained from TDHCA and local planning officials. Some unit mixes may be estimated. Units under construction at the date of this report were included in the above table.
***Estimated based on share of income-qualified renter households up to 60% AMHI.
****Based on share of demand by bedroom type calculated.




                                                                                           III-905
                                                                                BAYTOWN SUBMARKET
                                                                                    2009 DEMAND
 I. GROWTH DEMAND                                                                       0%-30%           31% - 40%           41% - 50%         51% - 60%         61% - 80%         81% - 100%
    HOUSEHOLD-BASED:                                                                  ($0-$21,000)    ($13,600-$27,900)   ($18,100-$34,900) ($22,600-$41,900) ($27,200-$55,900) ($36,200-$69,900)
    2005 TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                                        2,405               789                810               759              1,551              1,017
    2009 TOTAL ESTIMATED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                              2,420               793                766               745              1,515              1,009
    ESTIMATED ANNUAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH                              4                  1                 -11                -4                -9                 -2
    NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
    PROJECTION PERIOD (4 YEARS)                                                           15                  4                 -44               -14                -36               -8
 II. TOTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95.0% OCCUPIED) MARKET
    2005 INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS (OCCUPIED UNITS)                             2,405               789                810               759              1,551              1,017
    (+) NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
    PROJECTION PERIOD (4 YEARS)                                                            15                 4                 -44               -14               -36                 -8
    (=) TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS IN 2009                                 2,420               793                766               745              1,515              1,009
    TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
    OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                     2,547               835                806               784              1,595              1,062
 III. EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT
    TOTAL OCCUPIED TARGETED RENTAL UNITS 2009                                           2,420                793                766                745             1,515              1,009
    (+) ESTIMATED # OF VACANT UNITS (VACANCY %)*                                       0 (0.0%)           0 (0.0%)           10 (1.3%)          0 (0.0%)         115 (6.7%)         77 (6.7%)
    (+) PLANNED AND PROPOSED TARGETED UNITS DURING PROJECTION
    PERIOD**                                                                               0                  0                  0                250                0                  0
    (=) NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                             2,420               793                776               995              1,630              1,086
 IV. TOTAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
    TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
   OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                      2,547               835                806               784              1,595              1,062
    (-) TOTAL NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                       2,420               793                776               995              1,630              1,086
   (+) 2.5% OF EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT BUILT PRIOR TO 1970***                             176                 58                59                55                 0                  0
    (=) TOTAL TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (4 YEARS)                                                                             303                99                  90               -155               -35               -24
    STUDIO/1-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
     (4 YEARS)****                                                                        113                36                  31               -49                -12               -9
    2-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (4 YEARS)****                                                                         118                39                  36               -64                -15               -10
    3-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (4 YEARS)****                                                                         56                 19                  18               -32                -7                -4
    4-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (4 YEARS)****                                                                       16                   5                   5               -10                  -2                -1
Note: 2005 income-qualified households based on 2005 income limits. 2006-2009 income limits projected based on historical increase (2000-2005).
* Units at 0% to 30% and 31% to 40% are assumed to be 100% occupied. The appropriate Tax Credit vacancy rate is applied to units at 41% to 50% and 51% to 60%. The submarket market-rate
vacancy rate is applied to units at 61% to 100%.
**Based on information obtained from TDHCA and local planning officials. Some unit mixes may be estimated. Units under construction at the date of this report were included in the above table.
***Estimated based on share of income-qualified renter households up to 60% AMHI.
****Based on share of demand by bedroom type calculated.




                                                                                           III-906
              The following tables summarize projected demand for affordable housing for senior households (55+) from 2006 through
              2009.

                                  2005 BASELINE DEMAND – BAYTOWN SUBMARKET BY SENIOR (55+) OCCUPANCY
                                                                                                            TARGETED AMHI
APPROPRIATE INCOME RANGE BY TARGETED AMHI                              0%-30%          31% - 40%         41% - 50%  51% - 60%                61% - 80%         81% - 100%
  1-PERSON                                                            ($0-$12,810)   ($12,810-$17,080) ($17,080-$21,350) ($21,350-$25,620) ($25,620-$34,150) ($34,150-$42,700)
  2-PERSON                                                            ($0-$14,640)   ($14,640-$19,520) ($19,520-$24,400) ($24,400-$29,280) ($29,280-$39,050 ($39,050-$48,800)

BASELINE TOTAL RENTER HOUSEHOLDS (HISTA DATA)                            1,593             1,593             1,593             1,593             1,593             1,593
TARGETED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS
   1-PERSON                                                               422              127               96                 29               51                 41
   2-PERSON                                                               115              28                22                 21               76                 19
= BASELINE TARGETED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                    537              155               118                50               127                60


              Based on the American Housing Survey, the estimated share of demand by bedroom type and household size in the Houston
              MSA is distributed as follows:

                                              DEMAND BY BEDROOM AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE
                                                           STUDIO / 1-BR.          2-BR.
                                     1-PERSON HH               67%                  25%
                                     2-PERSON HH               35%                  46%
                             Source: American Housing Survey (Houston MSA, 1998)
                             HH-Households




                                                                        III-907
These percentages, as applied to the number of income-qualified renter
households age 55+ in this submarket, are as follows:

         DEMAND BY BEDROOM TYPE AND HOUSEHOLD SIZE
                            STUDIO /
                              1-BR.      2-BR.   TOTAL
                    0%-30%     283         106     389
                   31%-40%      85         32      117
                   41%-50%      64         24       88
     1-PERSON HH
                   51%-60%      19          7       26
                   61%-80%      34         13       47
                   81%-100%     27         10       37
                    0%-30%      40         53       93
                   31%-40%      10         13       23
                   41%-50%       8         10       18
     2-PERSON HH
                   51%-60%       7         10       17
                   61%-80%      27         35       62
                   81%-100%      7          9       16
                    0%-30%  323 (67%)  159 (33%)   482
                   31%-40%   95 (68%)   45 (32%)   140
                   41%-50%   72 (68%)   34 (32%)   106
      TOTAL (%)
                   51%-60%   26 (60%)   17 (40%)    43
                   61%-80%   61 (56%)   48 (44%)   109
                   81%-100%  34 (64%)   19 (36%)    53
            OVERALL TOTALS  611 (65%)  322 (35%)




                          III-908
                                                                                BAYTOWN SUBMARKET
                                                                                  2006 DEMAND (55+)
 I. GROWTH DEMAND                                                                       0%-30%           31% - 40%           41% - 50%         51% - 60%         61% - 80%         81% - 100%
    HOUSEHOLD-BASED:                                                                  ($0-$14,900)    ($13,000-$19,800)   ($17,300-$24,800) ($21,700-$29,700) ($26,000-$39,600) ($34,700-$49,500)
    2005 TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                                         537                155                118                50               127                60
    2006 TOTAL ESTIMATED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                               550                159                113                51               125                63
    ESTIMATED ANNUAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH                              13                 4                  -5                 1                -2                 3
    NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
    PROJECTION PERIOD (1YEAR)                                                             13                  4                  -5                1                 -2                 3
 II. TOTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95.0% OCCUPIED) MARKET
    2005 INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS (OCCUPIED UNITS)                              537                155                118                50               127                60
    (+) NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
    PROJECTION PERIOD (1 YEAR)                                                             13                 4                  -5                 1                -2                 3
    (=) TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS IN 2006                                  550                159                113                51               125                63
    TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
    OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                      579                167                119                53               132                66
 III. EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT
    TOTAL OCCUPIED TARGETED RENTAL UNITS 2006                                             550                159                113                51               125                63
    (+) ESTIMATED # OF VACANT UNITS (VACANCY %)*                                       0 (0.0%)           0 (0.0%)           1 (1.3%)           0 (0.0%)         10 (6.7%)          5 (6.7%)
    (+) PLANNED AND PROPOSED TARGETED UNITS DURING PROJECTION
    PERIOD**                                                                               0                  0                  0                  0                0                  0
    (=) NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                              550                159                114                51               135                68
 IV. TOTAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
    TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
   OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                       579                167                119                53               132                66
    (-) TOTAL NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                        550                159                114                51               135                68
   (+) 2.5% OF EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT BUILT PRIOR TO 1970***                              8                  16                12                  5                0                  0
    (=) TOTAL TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
   (1 YEAR)                                                                               37                 24                  16                8                 -3                -1
    STUDIO/1-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (1 YEAR)****                                                                          25                 16                  11                5                 -2                -1
    2-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
     (1 YEAR)****                                                                       12                   8                   5                3                   -1                0
Note: 2005 income-qualified households based on 2005 income limits. 2006-2009 income limits projected based on historical increase (2000-2005).
* Units at 0% to 30% and 31% to 40% are assumed to be 100% occupied. The appropriate Tax Credit vacancy rate is applied to units at 41% to 50% and 51% to 60%. The submarket market-rate
vacancy rate is applied to units at 61% to 100%.
**Based on information obtained from TDHCA and local planning officials. Some unit mixes may be estimated. Units under construction at the date of this report were included in the above table.
***Estimated based on share of income-qualified renter households up to 60% AMHI. Further estimated by percentage of renters 55+.
****Based on share of demand by bedroom type calculated.




                                                                                           III-909
                                                                                BAYTOWN SUBMARKET
                                                                                  2007 DEMAND (55+)
 I. GROWTH DEMAND                                                                       0%-30%           31% - 40%           41% - 50%         51% - 60%         61% - 80%         81% - 100%
     HOUSEHOLD-BASED:                                                                 ($0-$15,100)    ($13,200-$20,100)   ($17,600-$25,100) ($22,000-$30,100) ($26,400-$40,200) ($35,200-$50,200)
     2005 TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                                         537               155                 118               50                127                60
     2007 TOTAL ESTIMATED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                               563               163                 108               51                124                66
     ESTIMATED ANNUAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH                              13                4                   -5                1                 -2                 3
     NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
    PROJECTION PERIOD (2 YEARS)                                                            26                 8                 -11                 1                 -4                 6
 II. TOTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95.0% OCCUPIED) MARKET
     2005 INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS (OCCUPIED UNITS)                             537                155                118                50                127                60
     (+) NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
    PROJECTION PERIOD (2 YEARS)                                                           26                  8                 -11                 1                 -4                 6
     (=) TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS IN 2007                                 563                163                108                51                124                66
     TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
    OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                      593                172                113                54                130                69
 III. EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT
     TOTAL OCCUPIED TARGETED RENTAL UNITS 2007                                             563                163                108               51                 124               66
     (+) ESTIMATED # OF VACANT UNITS (VACANCY %)*                                       0 (0.0%)           0 (0.0%)           1 (1.3%)          0 (0.0%)           9 (6.7%)          5 (6.7%)
     (+) PLANNED AND PROPOSED TARGETED UNITS DURING PROJECTION
    PERIOD**                                                                               0                  0                  0                 0                  0                  0
     (=) NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                             563                163                109                51                133                71
 IV. TOTAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
     TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
    OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                      593                172                113                54                130                69
     (-) TOTAL NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                       563                163                109                51                133                71
    (+) 2.5% OF EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT BUILT PRIOR TO 1970***                             16                 31                 24                10                 0                  0
     (=) TOTAL TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
     (2 YEARS)                                                                            46                 40                  28                13                 -3                -2
     STUDIO/1-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
     (2 YEARS)****                                                                        31                 27                  19                 8                 -2                -1
     2-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
     (2 YEARS)****                                                                        15                 13                  9                  5                 -1                -1
Note: 2005 income-qualified households based on 2005 income limits. 2006-2009 income limits projected based on historical increase (2000-2005).
* Units at 0% to 30% and 31% to 40% are assumed to be 100% occupied. The appropriate Tax Credit vacancy rate is applied to units at 41% to 50% and 51% to 60%. The submarket market-rate
vacancy rate is applied to units at 61% to 100%.
**Based on information obtained from TDHCA and local planning officials. Some unit mixes may be estimated. Units under construction at the date of this report were included in the above table.
***Estimated based on share of income-qualified renter households up to 60% AMHI. Further estimated by percentage of renters 55+.
****Based on share of demand by bedroom type calculated.




                                                                                           III-910
                                                                                BAYTOWN SUBMARKET
                                                                                  2008 DEMAND (55+)
 I. GROWTH DEMAND                                                                       0%-30%           31% - 40%           41% - 50%         51% - 60%         61% - 80%         81% - 100%
    HOUSEHOLD-BASED:                                                                  ($0-$15,300)    ($13,400-$20,400)   ($17,800-$25,500) ($22,300-$30,600) ($26,800-$40,800) ($35,700-$51,000)
    2005 TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                                         537                155                118                50               127                60
    2008 TOTAL ESTIMATED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                               576                167                102                52               122                69
    ESTIMATED ANNUAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH                              13                 4                  -5                 1                -2                 3
    NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
    PROJECTION PERIOD (3 YEARS)                                                           39                 12                 -16                2                 -5                 9
 II. TOTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95.0% OCCUPIED) MARKET
    2005 INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS (OCCUPIED UNITS)                              537                155                118                50               127                60
    (+) NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
    PROJECTION PERIOD (3 YEARS)                                                            39                 12                -16                 2                -5                 9
    (=) TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS IN 2008                                  576                167                102                52               122                69
    TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
    OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                      606                176                108                54               128                73
 III. EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT
    TOTAL OCCUPIED TARGETED RENTAL UNITS 2008                                             576                167                102                52                122               69
    (+) ESTIMATED # OF VACANT UNITS (VACANCY %)*                                       0 (0.0%)           0 (0.0%)           1 (1.3%)           0 (0.0%)          9 (6.7%)          5 (6.7%)
    (+) PLANNED AND PROPOSED TARGETED UNITS DURING PROJECTION
    PERIOD**                                                                               0                  0                  0                  0                0                  0
    (=) NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                              576                167                104                52               131                74
 IV. TOTAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
       TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
   OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                       606                176                108                54               128                73
    (-) TOTAL NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                        576                167                104                52               131                74
   (+) 2.5% OF EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT BUILT PRIOR TO 1970***                              24                 47                36                 15                0                  0
    (=) TOTAL TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (3 YEARS)                                                                             55                 56                  40                18                -3                -2
    STUDIO/1-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (3 YEARS)****                                                                         37                 38                  27                11                -2                -1
    2-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
   (3 YEARS)****                                                                        18                  18                  13                7                   -1                -1
Note: 2005 income-qualified households based on 2005 income limits. 2006-2009 income limits projected based on historical increase (2000-2005).
* Units at 0% to 30% and 31% to 40% are assumed to be 100% occupied. The appropriate Tax Credit vacancy rate is applied to units at 41% to 50% and 51% to 60%. The submarket market-rate
vacancy rate is applied to units at 61% to 100%.
**Based on information obtained from TDHCA and local planning officials. Some unit mixes may be estimated. Units under construction at the date of this report were included in the above table.
***Estimated based on share of income-qualified renter households up to 60% AMHI. Further estimated by percentage of renters 55+.
****Based on share of demand by bedroom type calculated.




                                                                                           III-911
                                                                                 BAYTOWN SUBMARKET
                                                                                   2009 DEMAND (55+)
  I. GROWTH DEMAND                                                                       0%-30%           31% - 40%           41% - 50%         51% - 60%         61% - 80%         81% - 100%
     HOUSEHOLD-BASED:                                                                  ($0-$15,500)    ($13,600-$20,700)   ($18,100-$25,900) ($22,600-$31,000) ($27,200-$41,400) ($36,200-$51,700)
     2005 TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                                         537                155                118                50               127                60
     2009 TOTAL ESTIMATED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS                               589                171                97                 52               120                72
     ESTIMATED ANNUAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH                              13                 4                  -5                 1                -2                 3
     NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
     PROJECTION PERIOD (4 YEARS)                                                           52                 16                 -21                2                 -7                12
  II. TOTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95.0% OCCUPIED) MARKET
     2005 INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS (OCCUPIED UNITS)                              537                155                118                50               127                60
     (+) NEW INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD GROWTH OVER
     PROJECTION PERIOD (4 YEARS)                                                            52                 16                -21                 2                -7                12
     (=) TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS IN 2009                                  589                171                 97                52               120                72
     TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
     OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                      620                180                102                55               126                76
  III. EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT
     TOTAL OCCUPIED TARGETED RENTAL UNITS 2009                                             589                171                97                 52                120               72
     (+) ESTIMATED # OF VACANT UNITS (VACANCY %)*                                       0 (0.0%)           0 (0.0%)           1 (1.3%)           0 (0.0%)          9 (6.7%)          5 (6.7%)
     (+) PLANNED AND PROPOSED TARGETED UNITS DURING PROJECTION
     PERIOD**                                                                               0                  0                   0                 0                0                  0
     (=) NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                              589                171                 98                52               129                77
  IV. TOTAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
     TOTAL TARGETED RENTAL UNITS NEEDED FOR BALANCED (95%
    OCCUPIED) MARKET                                                                       620                180                102                55               126                76
     (-) TOTAL NET EXISTING TARGETED RENTAL PRODUCT                                        589                171                98                 52               129                77
    (+) 2.5% OF EXISTING RENTAL PRODUCT BUILT PRIOR TO 1970***                              33                 63                48                 20                0                  0
     (=) TOTAL TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
     (4 YEARS)                                                                             64                 72                  52                23                -3                -2
     STUDIO/1-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (4 YEARS)****                                                                          43                 49                  35                14                -2                -1
     2-BR. TARGETED UNITS NEEDED OVER PROJECTION PERIOD
    (4 YEARS)****                                                                        21                  23                  17                9                   -1                -1
 Note: 2005 income-qualified households based on 2005 income limits. 2006-2009 income limits projected based on historical increase (2000-2005).
* Units at 0% to 30% and 31% to 40% are assumed to be 100% occupied. The appropriate Tax Credit vacancy rate is applied to units at 41% to 50% and 51% to 60%. The submarket market-rate
vacancy rate is applied to units at 61% to 100%.
 **Based on information obtained from TDHCA and local planning officials. Some unit mixes may be estimated. Units under construction at the date of this report were included in the above table.
 ***Estimated based on share of income-qualified renter households up to 60% AMHI. Further estimated by percentage of renters 55+.
 ****Based on share of demand by bedroom type calculated.




                                                                                            III-912
                D. TAX CREDIT DEMAND SUMMARY

                     The table below summarizes the preceding demand analysis. Note the net
                     demand for senior units is included in the total net demand for all Tax Credit
                     units. For example, out of a total demand of 227 units up to 40% AMHI in
                     2006, there is a demand for 61 units age-restricted to households 55 and
                     older.

                                TAX CREDIT (0%-60%) DEMAND SUMMARY
                                        BAYTOWN SUBMARKET
                                               2006-2009
                                                                2006                       2007     2008   2009
             TOTAL NET DEMAND FOR TAX CREDIT UNITS 0%-40% AMHI   227                        285      344    402
             TOTAL NET DEMAND FOR TAX CREDIT UNITS 41%-60% AMHI -150                       -122      -94    -66

             TOTAL NET DEMAND FOR TAX CREDIT UNITS AGE-RESTRICTED
             TO 55 AND OLDER (0%-40% AMHI)                                        61        86      111    135
             TOTAL NET DEMAND FOR TAX CREDIT UNITS AGE-RESTRICTED
             TO 55 AND OLDER (41%-60% AMHI)                                       24        41       58     75

                     Although the table above indicates that there is a surplus of Tax Credit units
                     at 41% to 60% AMHI in this submarket, it is important to note that there
                     continues to be a need in the submarket for affordable units targeting
                     households at up to 40% AMHI.

                E. SPECIAL NEEDS HOUSEHOLDS

                     Persons with special needs, as defined by HUD, include persons with
                     disabilities, persons with HIV/AIDS, elderly persons, frail elderly persons,
                     persons with alcohol and/or drug addictions, victims of domestic violence,
                     and public housing residents.

                     Demand from elderly households was described in the previous section.
                     Information on persons with HIV/AIDS, alcohol and/or drug addictions, and
                     victims of domestic violence is typically difficult to obtain. Census data is
                     available to estimate the number of persons with other types of disabilities.
                     Based on 2000 Census data, it is estimated those persons age 16+ with a
                     sensory or physical disability within the Baytown Submarket are as follows:

                                             PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES
                                               BAYTOWN SUBMARKET
                                                                                NUMBER            PERCENTAGE
 TOTAL CIVILIAN NONINSTITUTIONALIZED PERSONS 16 YEARS OR OLDER                   49,479              100%

 SENSORY DISABILITY (BLINDNESS, DEAFNESS, VISION OR HEARING)                       2,046              4%
 PHYSICAL DISABILITY                                                               4,700              9%
 TOTAL PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES                                                   6,746             13%
Source: 2000 Census; Claritas; Vogt Williams & Bowen, LLC




                                                            III-913
              Note there may be some overlap in the above categories of disability,
              causing the total number to appear higher. We have not included mentally
              disabled residents since this group does not require a specific housing
              product.

              According to the 2000 Census, there are 6,746 persons aged 16 and older
              with either a sensory or physical disability. It is reasonable to assume
              caregivers and/or family members are providing services to these people and
              are therefore not in one-person households. According to Claritas,
              approximately 40.0% of all occupied housing units are renter-occupied.
              Applying this renter percentage to the number of persons with disabilities
              results in approximately 2,698 persons with disabilities living in renter-
              occupied households. Based on the above analysis, in 2005, approximately
              74.6% of all renter households (7,331 income-qualified renter households /
              9,826 total renter households) are income-qualified renter households.
              Applying 74.6% to the number of persons with disabilities living in renter
              households results in 2,013 income-qualified persons with a disability living
              in a renter-occupied household. This analysis is summarized below:

              TOTAL PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES                                         6,746
              (X) RENTER PERCENTAGE                                                   40.0%
              (=) RENTER HOUSEHOLDS WITH DISABLED RESIDENT                            2,698
              (X) BASELINE TARGETED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS (%)            74.6%
              (=) TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES             2,013

  APPROPRIATE INCOME RANGE BY
         TARGETED AMHI                0%-30% 31% - 40% 41% - 50%      51% - 60%   61% - 80%      81% - 100%
   % BASELINE TARGETED INCOME-
   QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS         32.8%      10.8%      11.0%      10.4%       21.2%          13.8%
                X                      2,013      2,013      2,013      2,013       2,013          2,013
  TOTAL INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER
HOUSEHOLDS WITH DISABLED RESIDENT       660        217        221         209        427            279


              The above analysis assumes persons with disabilities have incomes
              reflective of the general population. In reality, it is more likely persons with
              disabilities will have lower incomes than the general population; therefore,
              the above analysis understates the housing required to serve this component
              at lower incomes. If units were developed to 100% of the above level, a
              large number of vacancies would occur in the market since so many people
              are cared for in conventional units.

              We recommend a development target no more than 2% of total demand for
              special needs households. Due to the limitations of accurate information
              available pertaining to special needs households, we strongly recommend
              any planned project conduct extensive interviews with appropriate local
              service providers, caregivers, medical facilities, etc., to help determine the
              demand of special needs households within that market and the type or
              characteristics of the housing required.


                                               III-914
  At this time, the existing Tax Credit properties in the Baytown Submarket
  contain a total of 67 units for the disabled. It is of note that 2% of 2,013
  income-qualified persons with a disability living in a renter-occupied
  household is equal to 40 units.

F. HURRICANE IMPACT ON SUBMARKET HOUSING DEMAND

  One major factor impacting the Houston MSA rental housing market at this
  time is the evacuees from hurricanes Katrina and Rita. However, based on
  interviews with local property managers and city officials, it does not appear
  that evacuees significantly impacted Tax Credit and government-subsidized
  properties in this submarket. The surveyed affordable properties reported
  high occupancies prior to the arrival of hurricane evacuees. Only one
  affordable property reported two evacuees. The impact to the market-rate
  rental market has been more substantial, with property managers reporting
  at least 128 evacuees (5.3% of market-rate units surveyed). Most of these
  households are using FEMA Vouchers. Occupancy rates at market-rate
  properties continue to struggle in this submarket, despite the presence
  hurricane evacuees.       Occupancy may suffer further when FEMA
  discontinues funding Vouchers on March 1, 2006. Tax Credit properties in
  the market should remain unaffected.




                                 III-915

								
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