From Al Gore’s film
But CO2 is colorless
The Earth’s Climate Does Change!
Independent of human impact
15,000 years ago
So much of the Earth’s
water was tied up in ice
sheets that the level of the
oceans was 350 ft lower
The Mediterranean was
dry and you could walk
from Sicily to North Africa
The temperature was
about 10°C lower than
All of this occurred many
times in the past - and all
prior to large scale human
CO2 and T in
Ice Age - Interglacial Cycles
This peak occurs
about 1000 yrs Cause and Effect
• Does rising CO2 cause
warming or vice versa?
• Al Gore and many
climatologists say that
CO2 causes interglacial
• However, build-up of
CO2 lags rise in T by
about 1,000 years (or
more) during interglacial
"Angry Beast" article
• [Broecker (1995)] likened the Earth's climate to an “angry beast.” He said:
• "…No one understands what is required to cool Greenland by 16°C and
the tropics by 4±1°C, to lower the mountain snowlines by 900 m, to create
an ice sheet covering much of North America, to reduce CO2 by 30%, ….
• If these changes were not documented in the climate record, they would
never have entered the minds of the climate dynamics community.
• Models that purportedly simulate glacial climates do so only because key
boundary conditions are prescribed (the size and elevation of ice sheets,
sea ice extent, sea surface temperature, CO2 content, etc;)
• The current climate models do not explain and cannot reproduce the
severe and abrupt climate changes in the proxy climatic record.”
• Bottom Line: Climate Modelers would never have imagined that ice
ages could occur if the geologic evidence had not compelled them.
1. How does recent global warming compare to natural
a) Characterize measured earth temperatures: past ~ 120 years
b) Use proxies to infer earth temperatures over historical time
c) Compare recent ΔT with range of “natural” fluctuations
2. How good were the “good old days” in the 19th century?
• Are we warmer today, or were they colder then?
3. How has solar irradiance varied over time?
4. What relevant changes occurred in the ocean currents?
5. How reliable are climate models? What do they predict?
6. How will limits on fossil energy supplies constrain future CO2
7. What are the claimed and credible future impacts of global
8. What public policy steps make sense? 5
Monitoring the Earth
How well do we know
how Earth temperatures
have varied over the
past ~ 120 years?
Temperature Measurement Stations
(1) Changes in the observing time or
instrumentation during the station’s
(2) Bias due to urban heating that
evolved with time
(3) Station moves or relocations
(4) Poor siting due to nearby
Oceans = 70% of Earth area reflectors or impediments 7
U. S. Mean Temperature
5 year moving average
1940 to 1976
Hemispheric T Change
End of “little
Note peak in 1998:
This brought forth
Note cold winter of 2007-8:
Is this just a fluctuation?
• The earth has warmed in the 20th
– More so in the northern hemisphere than
the southern hemisphere
– But not uniformly in space or time
– Since 1976, warming has accelerated, after
a dip from 1940 to 1976
Proxies to infer earth temperatures
over historical time
• Tree rings
• Ice cores
• Bore holes
• Ocean sediments
• And many more …
How Proxies Work (or Don’t)
• Compare proxy data with actual temperature measurements for
calibration period - establish relation between T and proxy
– Typical calibration period: 20th century
• Attempt to remove non-temperature factors
– e.g. Tree rings:
• Effects of variable humidity and water supply
• Effects of CO2 fertilization
• Extrapolate relationship between proxy and temperature from 20th
century backward in time
– Assume relation between proxy and temperature is same for all time
• All proxies suffer from various maladies
– Other factors than temperature affect proxy
– Inherent noise in data
• Mostly cooler prior to 1900
- “Little Ice Age”
• Mostly warmer after 1900 -
but not at all sites
• Large variations from
proxy to proxy
-Local variations or noise?
• It may require many
proxies to assess global T
MBH Models 1998-2006
• MBH integrated over 1000 proxies to
estimate history of global average
temperature over past 1000-2000 years
– Utilizes deviations from mean temperature for
– Use principal component analysis (PCA) to identify
main trends in a noisy data set (applies weights to
– Series of widely quoted published papers
– Leads to “hockey stick” profile
MBH Result: The “Hockey Stick”
Widely disseminated by MBH, Al Gore, the U. N., and other alarmists
McIntyre and McKitrick (2005-7)
• PCA does not work right unless you use measure
deviations from the mean for the entire data set (not
just calibration period)
• Based on calibration period mean, PCA
inadvertently heavily weights the few proxies that
rose in the 20th century - essentially eliminates
almost all other proxies
• These few proxies were tree ring data that were likely
corrupted by CO2 fertilization in the 20th century
• Hockey stick disappears if mean for the entire
data set is used
A tale of two data processes
MBH data processing
with mean of calibration period
Data processing with mean for entire data set
Integrating Multiple Proxies
Burger & Cubasch: Examine procedure for reconstruction of
historical temperatures from multiple proxies: 6 junctures with a
fork in the road 26 = 64 ways to carry out the reconstruction
How unique is 20th century warming?
Two alternate views of the past 1200 years
Evidence for MWP and LIA
Sargasso Sea Sediments
Recent ΔT vs. “natural” fluctuations
• Anecdotal evidence of MWP and LIA
• Some proxies suggest a significant LIA -
and a MWP climate comparable to today
Glacier Expansion and Retreat
How good were the “good old days”
in the 19th century?
• Are we warmer today, or were they colder then?
• Does the 19th century provide a good baseline for
comparison to an “ideal climate?”
• Many anecdotal reports of punishing cold in 17th to
19th centuries; example:
– "the removal of hundreds of thousands of beavers [to make
furs for the cold middle and upper classes of Europe] during
early Dutch and English colonial rule led to the extensive
desiccation of wetlands in New England."
– Presumably the removal of beaver-created dams on a large
scale had a significant climatic effect on New England.
Variation of solar irradiance over time?
• Solar cycle
• Sunspot history
• Total solar irradiance (TSI)
– Observation in space since 1980
• Comparison to Sun-like stars
• Earth temperature change:
– ~ 0.2°C per W/m2 change in TSI
• Solar contribution to climate change remains
Measurement of Total Solar
If this level of variation persisted in the past,
solar variations would be too small to account
for historical variations in temperature
The Sun has not been constant
Can we estimate past TSI?
• Short answer is not very well
(1) The "constant quiet Sun model"
(2) The "solar diameter model"
(3) The "activity envelope model”
(4) The "umbra/penumbra (U/P) variations model"
(5) The "MM temperature model"
(6) The "Stellar Ca HK index model”
(7) The "Solar cycle duration model"
(8) The "Coronal source flux model"
Constant quiet Sun model
• Use sunspot number as indicator of TSI
• Note the current solar cycle varies from TSI =
– 1367 W/m2 at ~ 150 sunspots at SMAX
– 1365.5 W/m2 at < 10 sunspots at SMIN
• Assume TSI = A + B*(SSN)
• Estimate past TSI based on past SSN
• TSI can NEVER drop below 1365.5 W/m2
• Other (non-CQSM) models allow greater past
reductions in TSI
• No model can be substantiated
Relevant changes in ocean currents
• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a measure of the differences
in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.
• In general, changes in the SOI correspond very well with changes in
ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific.
• The negative (positive) phase of the SOI coincides with abnormally
warm (cold) ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of
El Niño (La Niña) episodes.
• Historically, + and - oscillations have occurred with ~ equal
• In 1976, a rather sudden change took place and the SOI has been
predominantly negative since then - Periodic upwelling of cold
waters from the deep has rarely occurred
• Contribution to apparent global warming starting in 1976 may be
– One interpretation: Earth is not getting warmer, but appears to be so since
surface is warm and depths are cold
– In a strong El Niño, the accumulation of excess heat in the eastern Pacific is
about 1016 kWh 30
Southern Oscillation Anomaly
"It is now widely accepted that a climatic
regime shift transpired in the North Pacific
Ocean in the winter of 1976–77.”
"The 1970s North Pacific climate regime
shift is marked by a notable transition from
the persistent cooling condition over the
eastern North Pacific since the late 1960s
toward the opposite condition around the
mid-1970s.... This large-scale decadal
climatic regime shift has produced far-
"Several studies have noted that
the pattern of (ENSO) variability
changed in 1976, with warm
events becoming more frequent
and more intense. This 1976
Pacific climate shift has been
characterized as a warming in
SSTs through much of the
eastern tropical Pacific."
How reliable are climate models?
What do they predict?
• Global climate models divide the atmosphere into many
small three-dimensional cells
• Within each atmospheric cell, the various parameters such as
temperature, humidity, barometric pressure, and wind velocity
are uniform, but are updated frequently
• Each cell interacts with its neighbors according to physical laws
that are expressed as mathematical equations.
• Most models focus on predicted change in global
temperature for doubling of CO2 from the pre-industrial era
• Some models are a priori; most have adjustable parameters
• There is no way to validate models
Models: ΔT produced by CO2
• Increased CO2 produces only modest direct warming
• This warming produces secondary effects of evaporating more
• Water vapor is a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2 and this
is the cause of most of the putative global warming from CO2 in
• Uncertainty in accounting for water vapor, clouds and aerosols
leads to variability in predictions
• Over any significant time span, uncertainty in solar irradiance
variation remains problematic
• ΔT due to doubling of CO2 has been predicted to be as low as
1°C or as high as 6°C, but average of predictions is around 3°C
Rise in CO2 Doubling of pre-industrial
would go to 550 ppm
This is the most
• There are some
measurements that alarming aspect
suggest much larger of climate change
fluctuations in the past
• Ice core measurements
tend to incorporate
samples over at least a
100 year period, leading to
smoothing of fluctuations
Is increased CO2 a cause or effect of
• In ice age-interglacial transitions (between ice ages)
– CO2 changes lag ΔT changes by ~ 1000 years
– CO2 changes from ~ 190 ppm to 280 ppm for ΔT of ~ 10°C
• At present with CO2 at ~ 383 ppm, the Earth should be
sweltering by comparison to interglacials between ice ages
when CO2 was at ~ 280 ppm
– But current temperatures are comparable to past interglacials
• Plots of temperature rise, glacier contraction and sea level
rise show increases long before major build-up of CO2 in
• Temperature “dip” from 1940-1976 was during period of
sharply rising CO2
– “Explanation” is aerosols
Impacts of Global Warming -
• 1999 was the most violent year in the modern history of weather.
So was 1998. So was 1997. And 1996 ....
– A nine-hundred-year-long cooling trend has been suddenly and decisively
reversed in the past fifty years ....
– A climatological nightmare is upon us. It is almost certainly the most
dangerous thing that has ever happened in our history.
• Climate extremes would trigger meteorological chaos-raging
hurricanes such as we have never seen, capable of killing millions
– uncommonly long, record-breaking heat waves;
– and profound drought that could drive Africa and the entire Indian
subcontinent over the edge into mass starvation.
• From sweltering heat to rising sea levels, global warming's effects
have already begun ....
– The 1990s are likely to have been the warmest decade of the millennium in
the Northern Hemisphere and 1998 is likely to have been the warmest year.
• The IPCC took 1000 pages to describe all the impacts of global
(1) There have always been fluctuations in the Earth’s climate. Today's warming lies
within that range.
(2) Hockey stick picture of the past millennium omits significant fluctuations in the
past: little ice age (~1600 to ~1880) & medieval warm period (~850 to ~1050).
(3) Evidence of global warming (glacier retreat, sea surface warming, ...) began prior
to large-scale CO2 emissions and has not changed by increased CO2 emissions
(4) There is no experimental proof that global climate models on heating effect of
CO2 are correct. Wide variability from model to model suggests significant
uncertainties in models.
(5) Comparison of ice age - interglacial CO2 variation with current CO2
– current CO2 is much higher than inter-glacials - why is it not hotter today?
– historical increases in CO2 occurred ~ 1000 years after temperature increases,
suggesting increased CO2 is an effect of increased global temperature, not a cause.
(6) Impacts of warming on humanity have been grossly exaggerated.
(7) Economic cost of reducing CO2 emissions has been greatly underestimated.
(8) Limitations of fossil fuel availability will constrain future CO2 emissions far below
the projections of most global climate models.
(9) The position of alarmists is akin to that of Earthquake scientists who predict: "the
big one is coming" so "fund our research."
If the problem were not cataclysmic, who would want to fund these people?
Warming Began Before CO2
Limits on fossil fuel availability are likely to lead to
results below the entire range in these figures
• Developed countries must achieve reductions in greenhouse
– ~5% below 1990 or about 29% below that projected for 2010
• China, India and others can produce all the GHG they want to
– But if they reduce emissions they can sell emission rights to
• Kyoto acts as a scheme to slow the growth of the world's
industrial democracies and transfer wealth to the third world.
• The costs of the Kyoto Protocol outweigh the benefits, and the
standards which Kyoto sets are too optimistic.
• Kyoto punishes countries that have made progress in the past
(Netherlands, France, …) by demanding even steeper cuts
• China will soon become the world's greatest generator of
greenhouse gases. China builds a new coal-fired power plant
every week, and in a quarter of a century, its CO2 emissions
will be double those of all the other industrialized nations
• “Nobody worries about conventional pollution”
Chairman Dingell's Energy and
• In October, 2007, Chairman Dingell's Energy and Commerce
Committee of the U. S. Congress released its first white paper in a
series on "Meeting the Climate Change Challenge.”
• "The United States should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by
between 60 and 80 percent by AD 2050 to contribute to global efforts to
address climate change.”
• If a reduction from present levels, the reduction from business as usual
in 2050 is 72 to 86%
• This program does not require that the United States supply its people
and its industries with the energy needed to operate. It merely requires
that emissions be reduced.
• An epidemic of insanity has apparently invaded the U. S. House of
Representatives. Such a program will send the United States reeling
back toward the lifestyle of the 18th century, bringing on a far worse
economic depression than that of 1930s.
Alarmists vs. Naysayers
• Both sides seem to be absolutely sure they are right
– Despite the fact that not a single aspect of climate change can be
• Temperature history (past millennium)
• Variability of the Sun (past and future)
• Impacts of warming on humanity
• Effects of CO2 on climate
• A little humility might go a long way in this arena
• Neither side seems to be able to shrug their shoulders and
admit that we just don’t know the answers
– So they adopt projections, extrapolations, hypotheses, unproven
models, and guesses
• Both sides appear to decide on conclusions in advance, and
then craftily pick and choose data to back up their preconceived
viewpoints - like lawyers, not scientists