Dividends, Investment, and Financial Flexibility

Dividends, Investment, and Financial Flexibility * Naveen D. Daniel LeBow College of Business Drexel University nav@drexel.edu David J. Denis Krannert School of Management Purdue University djdenis@purdue.edu Lalitha Naveen Fox School of Business Temple University lnaveen@temple.edu September, 2007 Abstract Faced with cash flows that fall short of the sum of expected dividend and investment levels, firms must do one of the following: cut dividends, cut investment, or raise funds through security sales, asset sales or reductions in cash reserves. Our analysis indicates that while very few firms (6%) cut dividends, the majority (68%) make significant cuts in investment relative to expected levels. Investment cuts make up for approximately half of the shortfall, with the other half being covered primarily by debt financing. Net equity issues, reductions in cash balances and asset sales account for a trivial percentage of the shortfall. Our findings challenge several widely-held views in the corporate finance literature. JEL classification code: G35 Key words: dividend policy, investment policy, financial flexibility, cash management * Preliminary draft. Not for quotation. Comments welcome. 1. Introduction In this study, we empirically examine tradeoffs among the three primary managerial decisions in corporate finance: investment policy, dividend policy, and capital structure policy. Specifically, we analyze situations in which the firm’s cash flow from operations is insufficient to meet its expected levels of dividends and investment. By definition, therefore, these firms must cut dividends, cut investment, reduce their cash reserves, or raise additional funds through security sales or asset sales. We investigate the relative frequency of each of these actions and analyze cross-sectional differences in how firms manage the cash shortfall. Our investigation is motivated by an apparent contradiction between standard assumptions in the corporate finance literature and the views expressed by managers in surveys of corporate financial policies. In particular, it is commonly assumed that (i) dividends are of second-order importance to investors relative to investment policy; (ii) due to agency problems, managers will always invest if they have the resources to do so, and (iii) although the presence of costly external finance constrains investment, investment policy in dividend paying firms is less constrained than in non-paying firms because dividend payers can always reduce dividends to finance investment. 1 Under any of these assumptions, a firm facing a cash shortfall will manage the shortfall primarily by cutting dividends first and will cut investment only as a last resort. By contrast, Lintner’s (1956) survey evidence implies that firms decide first on their dividend level, and then make investment decisions. He finds that firms are willing to cut their capital budget to maintain (or even increase) their current dividend levels (pg. 105-106). Similarly, in a more recent survey of CFOs, Brav, Graham, Harvey, and Michaely (2005) report that “dividend choices are made simultaneously with (or perhaps a bit sooner than) investment decisions.” The surveyed managers state that they are willing to pass up on some positive-NPV 1 Section 2 provides a brief literature review that contains examples of studies employing these assumptions. 1 projects before cutting dividends. 2 These surveys imply that firms facing a cash shortfall will manage the shortfall by cutting investment first and will cut dividends only as a last resort. Using a sample of S&P 1500 firms over the period 1992-2005, we analyze how (if at all) firms adjust dividend and investment levels in response to cash shortfalls. Consistent with prior literature [e.g., DeAngelo and DeAngelo (1990)], we assume that expected dividends are equal to the dividends paid by the firm in the prior year. Defining investment as the sum of capital expenditures (CAPEX) and research and development (R&D), we estimate expected investment levels for each firm-year based on the corresponding median values of asset-scaled CAPEX and R&D for that particular industry. 3 We then estimate the firm’s cash flow shortfall as expected investment + expected dividends – available cash flow, where available cash flow equals cash flow from operations + R&D × (1–T) – preferred dividends. Our main findings are as follows. (i) A substantial proportion of dividend-payers (33%) exhibit cash flow shortfalls in a given year. (ii) Faced with a cash shortfall, only 6% of dividend payers reduce dividends. By contrast, 68% reduce investment levels. Moreover, these investment cutbacks are economically significant – they constitute 61% of the shortfall and the resulting investment level is 19% below our estimate of ex ante expected investment. (iii) The remainder of the shortfall is financed primarily by external debt issues. Net equity issues, reductions in cash balances, and asset sales account for a trivial percentage of the total shortfall. The debt issues increase the firm’s debt-to-assets ratio from 24.8% to 26.4%, on average. (iv) Anecdotal support for the notion that dividend policy is set before investment policy comes from statements, such as the following, attributed to Merck company spokeswoman: “Merck’s management has stated that its dividend is the company’s No. 1 priority, even beyond investment in R&D” (see Star-Ledger article titled “Vioxx verdict puts dividends at risk,” August 23, 2005). More recently, ConocoPhillips announced that it was cutting its 2007 capital expenditures both relative to its initial estimates and relative to its 2006 capital expenditure levels. This move was in contrast to that of competitors such as Chevron. ConocoPhillips stated that the move would enable the company to increase dividends (see WSJ article “Conoco warns reduced Capex could impact growth,” Dec 7, 2006). 3 2 We discuss later that our results are robust to alternative definitions of expected investment and expected dividends. 2 For a given level of shortfall, relative reductions in investment are higher for firms with lower financial flexibility (those with higher leverage, lower cash holdings, and lower Altman’s zscores). The cutback is also higher for firms with poorer growth opportunities, those with a longer history of dividend payments, and those with higher dividend payout ratios. Collectively, our findings provide broad empirical support for survey data [e.g., Lintner (1956), Brav et al. (2005)] that managers will go to great lengths to avoid dividend cuts. As such, our evidence challenges several traditional views in the finance literature. First, contrary to the traditional view of dividends as a residual policy [e.g., Modigliani and Miller (1961)], it appears that managers treat the maintenance of dividends as a top priority and are willing to forgo investment and increase leverage to avoid cutting the dividend. Second, our finding that cash shortfalls have a large impact on investment levels of dividend payers undermines a central premise of the literature that examines investment-cash flow sensitivities (e.g., Fazzari, Hubbard and Peterson (1988)). This literature typically assumes that dividend payers are relatively unconstrained because they can reduce dividend payments to finance investment. In contrast to this view, we find not only that dividend payers cut investment rather than dividends, but also that dividend payers actually cover a greater percentage of cash flow shortfalls through investment cuts than do nonpayers. Third, our findings appear inconsistent with simple free cash flow arguments that managers will overinvest if they can [e.g., Jensen (1986)] and that dividends are a relatively poor constraint on this behavior. Our evidence implies that dividends can be just as effective as debt in terms of committing managers to a fixed payout. Our observation that firms behave as if dividends are of first order importance is consistent with recent work by DeAngelo and DeAngelo’s (2006a) who argue that “payout policy matters in exactly the same sense that investment policy does.” Although their study does 3 not directly address how firms would adjust dividends and investment in response to a cash flow shock, an implication of their approach is that dividends would not be treated as the residual in any such situations. Our results also suggest that financial flexibility in the form of debt capacity represents an important buffer between cash shortfalls and investment cuts. For a given shortfall, dividend payers with greater financial flexibility have lower investment cutbacks than do firms with less financial flexibility. This finding supports the argument in studies such as DeAngelo and DeAngelo (2006b) that optimal financial policies maintain debt capacity that can be used to cushion the impact of shocks to cash flows. Apparently, asset sales, reductions in cash balances, and new equity issues provide little flexibility. The fact that equity does not appear to provide a similar cushion offers support for models of costly external equity finance. The rest of the paper is arranged as follows. Section 2 provides a brief review of other studies related to the tradeoffs among dividend, investment, and capital structure policies. Section 3 describes our experimental design and provides summary statistics on the data. Section 4 examines how firms resolve cash flow shortfalls and Section 5 provides a more detailed look at the sources of cash raised to fund the firm’s shortfall. Section 6 analyzes the effect of firm characteristics on how firms manage shortfalls. Section 7 discusses our findings and offers concluding remarks. 2. Background Various theories in corporate finance have implications for how firms will respond when faced with a cash shortfall. In this section, we review this literature in the context of our study. 4 2.1. The tradeoff between dividends and investment In perfect capital markets, Modigliani and Miller (1961; henceforth MM) show that firms will always invest at the first-best level. They then assume that the firm will pay out any residual cash flows as dividends. Thus, investment policy can affect dividend policy, but not vice versa. Since there are no financing frictions, firms will always be able to raise capital for all positiveNPV projects, regardless of the level of cash flows. Thus, in the MM world, negative shocks to cash flows can affect dividends but not investment. More recent studies in corporate finance focus on two primary frictions, agency costs and asymmetric information. In the agency cost framework of Jensen (1986), managers have incentives to overinvest or otherwise misallocate free cash flow. Firms can commit ex ante not to overinvest free cash flow by making payouts such as dividends and stock repurchases. However, Jensen suggests that debt payments are a better commitment device than dividends because debt payments are contractual obligations whereas dividends can be decreased at the discretion of managers. In the asymmetric information framework of Myers and Majluf (1984), managers acting in the interests of current shareholders have the incentive to avoid issuing equity when the firm’s stock price is sufficiently undervalued. Consequently, conditional on an equity issue, the market rationally discounts the price of the issuing firm’s shares. In some states of the world, this can lead the firm to underinvest relative to first-best levels. Various scholars have recognized that these frictions have the effect of increasing the cost of external capital relative to that of internal capital. Consequently, firms may be forced to decrease investment in response to a shortfall in cash because the cost of external finance is too high (e.g. Fazzari, Hubbard, and Petersen (1988), Froot, Scharfstein, and Stein (1993)). 5 However, Fazzari, Hubbard, and Petersen (1988) suggest that dividend-paying firms are less constrained than non-paying firms. This assumption is based on the idea that high-payout firms have a large dividend cushion that can be used to fund profitable investment opportunities. 4 Thus, as in the perfect markets case, any negative cash flow shock will affect dividends, but will not affect investment levels unless the shock is so large that it could not be covered by cutting dividends to zero. 2.2. Other sources of financial flexibility In theory, firms have other sources of financial flexibility that would allow them to manage a cash shortfall without reducing either dividends or investment. For example, several studies analyze determinants of cash holdings and argue that firms with high cash flow variability and greater costs of external finance accumulate and maintain higher cash balances. 5 If so, a firm faced with a cash shortfall could avoid cutting dividends and investment by temporarily reducing its cash balance. However, DeAngelo and DeAngelo (2006b) argue that maintaining high cash balances is problematic because such balances increase expected agency costs. Another potential source of financial flexibility is the sale of assets. In theory, a firm facing a cash shortfall might avoid dividend and investment cuts by selling assets. However, asset illiquidity can make this option prohibitively expensive (Shleifer and Vishny (1992); Pulvino (1998)). 4 Fazzari et al. (1988), however, conjecture that “if firms are reluctant to cut dividends when cash flow falls….they may reduce investment somewhat rather than seek costly external financing” (pg. 183). However, they do not examine if this is true. See, for example, Kim, Mauer, and Sherman (1998), Harford (1999), and Opler, Pinkowitz, Stulz, and Williamson (1999). 5 6 Finally, a firm may maintain financial flexibility by preserving unused debt capacity. DeAngelo and DeAngelo (2006b) argue that firms should maintain low leverage levels so as to preserve the ability to borrow when faced with unanticipated capital needs. Thus, such a firm facing a shortfall might borrow funds so as to avoid cutting dividends and investment. 3. Sample Description We seek to identify situations in which firms face a shortfall in cash flow relative to their combined needs for expected dividends and investment. To do so, our primary sample comprises the S&P 1500 firms listed on Compustat’s Execucomp database for the period 19922005. As in prior studies, we exclude financial firms (SIC codes 6000-6999), utilities (SIC codes 4400-4999), and firms that are not publicly traded (CRSP share code not equal to 10 or 11). All accounting data are obtained from Compustat. We restrict our main analysis to the Execucomp dataset because it contains data on managerial compensation, which we use in some of our models to predict expected investment. Moreover, we are interested in the impact of cash flow shortfalls on dividend policy and most firms that are not in the S&P 1500 do not pay dividends. Nonetheless, as a robustness check, we repeat all our analyses using all firms listed on Compustat between 1988 and 2005. (The statement of cash flows (SCF) is available only from 1988 onwards (pursuant to SFAS 95)). Our main results are robust to using the broader sample of Compustat firms. To estimate a firm’s cash shortfall, we require estimates of expected dividends, expected investment, and cash flow available for dividends and investment (“available cash flow”). Because R&D expense is already deducted as a pre-tax expense in the income statement, we add back the after-tax R&D expense to the firm’s operating cash flow as listed in the firm’s statement 7 of cash flows. That is, we estimate available cash flow as operating cash flow + R&D × (1–t) – preferred dividend. We estimate the effective tax rate, t, as the ratio of total taxes paid to pre-tax income, but winsorize the resulting estimates at zero and one to avoid non-meaningful numbers. Consistent with prior literature (e.g. Healy and Palepu (1990), DeAngelo and DeAngelo (1990), and DeAngelo, DeAngelo, and Skinner (1994)), we set expected dividends equal to dividends in the prior year. 6 Throughout the paper, we use the term “dividend” to refer to regular cash dividend payments on common stock. Firms that paid dividends in the prior year are classified as payers while all others are classified as non-payers. Thus, for non-payers, the expected dividend is zero. Our main findings are robust to alternative measures of expected dividends, including (i) using a Lintner-type (1956) model to estimate the predicted change in dividends as a function of earnings and the prior dividend (see the Appendix for details), (ii) excluding special dividends, 7 and (iii) controlling for the impact of repurchases and share issuances on the number of shares outstanding. 8 To measure expected investment, we consider both CAPEX and R&D. Our investment measure (dollar value), therefore, is CAPEX + R&D × (1–t). We take the post-tax value of R&D since R&D is expensed in the income statement whereas CAPEX is not. Also, as with other papers (e.g., Bizjak, Brickley, and Coles (1993)), we replace missing values of R&D by zero. We 6 In our sample, firms maintain dividends per share at the prior year’s level in 59% of the firm-years, increase dividends per share in 38% of the firm-years, and decrease dividends per share in 3% of the firm-years. We note, however, that special dividends have nearly disappeared over the period spanned by our sample (see DeAngelo, DeAngelo, and Skinner (2000)). Thus, they have a trivial impact on measures of dividend payouts in our data. Specifically, we compute expected dividends based on the DPS in the last quarter of the prior fiscal year (DPSq4,t4 7 8 1). The expected dividend is therefore computed as DPS q 4 ,t −1 × ∑ Shares q =1 q ,t where Shares is the number of shares outstanding at the end of each of the four quarters of the current year. For firms that pay semi-annual or annual dividends, we do an equivalent computation, based on the prior year’s semi-annual or annual DPS. Thus, this measure assumes that managers seek to maintain the same DPS and rationally forecast the number of shares that will be outstanding at any point during the year. 8 estimate expected CAPEX as the median ratio of CAPEX/lagged assets of the firm’s industry (2digit SIC) in that year multiplied by the firm’s lagged assets. Similarly, expected R&D equals the median ratio of R&D/lagged assets for the firm’s industry in that year multiplied by the firm’s lagged assets. Our use of industry medians allows us to capture the impact of changes in industry conditions on expected investment levels, while avoiding the negative predicted values for investment that would arise if we were to use a regression approach to estimate expected investment levels. We later consider several alternative measures of expected investment, including a naïve approach in which expected scaled investment is equal to the prior year’s scaled investment. A firm’s cash flow shortfall is therefore equal to expected investment + expected dividends – available cash flow. As summarized in Table 1, 5,279 firm-years (32%) are characterized by a positive shortfall. We label these firms ‘shortfall firms,’ and firms with negative shortfalls as ‘surplus firms.’ The percentage of shortfall firms is approximately equal among dividend payers (32.8%) and non-payers (31.2%). On average, the shortfall is $100 Million, or 57% of the firm’s available cash flow. Among those firms with a shortfall, 51% are dividend payers and 49% are non-payers. The sum of expected investment and expected dividends for firms with a shortfall (243+40=283) is similar to that for firms with a surplus (218+55=273). However, available cash flow is substantially lower in firms with a shortfall. In addition, Table 1 shows that firms with shortfalls exhibit large reductions in available cash flow relative to the prior year, but little change in expected investment relative to the prior year. These findings imply that the sample shortfalls are caused primarily by short-term reductions in operating cash flows rather than increases in expected 9 investment. By contrast, among those firms with a surplus (i.e. shortfall ≤ 0), the surplus is caused primarily by an increase in operating cash flows relative to the prior year’s level. Table 2 provides further information on the magnitude of shortfall relative to expected levels of investment and dividends, and to the prior year’s cash balance. We limit our analysis in this table to those firms with a positive shortfall and examine the extent to which it is feasible for the sample firms to cover the observed shortfall with cuts in investment, dividends, or cash balances. We again separately analyze dividend payers and non-payers, though our primary interest is with payers. As shown in Table 2, the shortfall averages 41.2% of expected investment, 250% of expected dividends, and 61.3% of the firm’s cash balance at the end of the prior year. For dividend payers, the corresponding percentages are 37.2%, 182.1%, and 70%. Among dividend payers, 80% of the firms could cover the entire shortfall via investment cuts, 28% could cover the shortfall entirely with dividend cuts, and 50% could maintain a positive cash balance and still cover the entire shortfall. 9 In more than 62% of the firm-years with shortfalls, the firm’s combined cash balance and dividend levels exceed the shortfall. In other words, in these cases, the firm could cover the shortfall without cutting investment or raising funds externally via asset sales or security issuances. 4. How do Firms Resolve Cash Flow Shortfalls? Faced with a cash flow shortfall, a dividend paying firm must do one or more of the following: cut investment, cut dividends, reduce its cash balance, sell assets, or raise funds in the capital market. In this section, we provide evidence on how the sample firms resolve their cash 9 In reporting these numbers, we do not intend to imply that firms would ever completely eliminate investment or reduce cash balances to zero. We simply report these numbers to give the reader some perspective on the relative magnitude of the shortfalls. 10 shortfall. Because we are primarily interested in the tradeoff (if any) between investment and dividend cuts, we restrict our analysis initially to the sub-sample of dividend payers. We measure investment cuts as the difference between expected and actual investment and dividend cuts as the difference between the expected dividends and the current year’s dividends. Reductions in cash are measured as the difference in the firm’s cash and short-term investments in year t-1 and that in year t, where year t is the year of the shortfall. Net external financing is taken from the statement of cash flows and is measured as the net cash flow from financing activities, excluding preferred and common dividends. Asset sales (i.e. sales of property, plant, and equipment and the sale of investments in affiliates) are drawn from the net cash flow from investing activities portion of the statement of cash flows. We exclude from this quantity both CAPEX and the change in short-term investments (the latter item is considered as part of cash drawdown). The Appendix provides a comprehensive description of all variables used in this study, along with their corresponding Compustat data item numbers. Table 3 presents summary data on how the sample payers resolve cash shortfalls. As reported earlier in Table 2, the average payer with a shortfall has available cash flow that is $142 million less than the sum of expected dividends and investment. By contrast, for payers with a surplus, the available cash flow exceeds the sum of expected dividends and expected investment by $303M. The data in Table 3 indicate that, on average, firms with a shortfall do not decrease their dividend – in fact, on average, dividends show a slight increase (dividend cutback = -$1M). However, firms with a shortfall invest less than their expected level (investment cutback = $74M). This investment cutback accounts for approximately 61% of the cash flow shortfall. Notably, the investment cutback is of a comparable magnitude to the level of expected dividends 11 ($74M versus $78M, p = 0.51). In other words, had these firms cut their dividend, they could have avoided the investment cut. To cover the remaining shortfall, firms primarily raise external financing (external cash = $53M) and, to a far lesser extent, sell assets. External financing covers approximately 44% of the shortfall, while asset sales account for only 4%. Interestingly, shortfalls are not generally covered by reductions in the firm’s cash balance. In fact, firms add to their cash balances (cash drawdown = $-9M), perhaps reflecting a temporary increase in cash from external financing. 10 To examine whether these results are driven by a few firms that have large cutbacks, Table 3 also reports the percentage of firms that raise money from each source. The third row of the table indicates that 68% of firms with a cash shortfall cut back on their investment (relative to expected levels) and 60% of them raise external cash. These numbers are both statistically and economically different from 50%. Thus our results do not appear to be driven by a few outliers. We also find that only 6% of firms with shortfalls cut back on dividends. In contrast, in unreported results, we find that 26% of the shortfall firms increase their dividends. About 52% of the shortfall firms raise money through asset sales and 53% finance the shortfall by drawing down on cash balances. In short, the sample firms appear to cover cash shortfalls primarily by scaling back investment plans and raising money in the external capital market. Firms with a surplus appear to behave differently. On average, surplus firms increase their dividends and invest more than their expected level. They are net repurchasers of debt and equity, they invest in other assets, and add to cash balances. The fifth row gives an indication of The sum of the various sources of cash (dividend cutback, investment cutback, external financing, asset sales, and cash drawdown) does not equal the shortfall because we winsorize each of the variables. To compute the percentage that a particular source, contributes to the coverage of the shortfall, we divide the average amount from that source by the sum of the five sources. This ensures that the percentages add up to 100. Thus, for example, we arrive at investment cutbacks accounting for 61% of the shortfall by dividing the investment cutback ($74M) by the sum of the cash generated from each source ($122M). 10 12 how the surplus is spent. Surplus firms use 4% of their surplus to fund dividend increases and 20% to invest in excess of their expected levels. They also retire debt and/or repurchase equity (24%), increase non-operating assets (35%), and add to cash balances (17%). Moreover, these patterns are pervasive across firms. We find that 43% of surplus firms increase their dividends, 57% increase investments, and between 61% and 64% retire debt and equity, add to nonoperating assets, and add to their cash balances. It is noteworthy that the behavior of shortfall and surplus firms is asymmetric with respect to dividends, but symmetric with respect to investment. Firms seem to adjust investment based on cash flows. However, dividends seem to be adjusted (upwards) only when there is a surplus. The large cutbacks in investment in firms with cash flow shortfalls, coupled with the paucity of dividend cuts, appear at odds with the traditional views that (i) dividends are a residual policy, and (ii) investment policy in dividend paying firms is relatively unconstrained. It is possible, however, that our findings are due to a misspecification of expected investment. That is, perhaps we overstate expected investment in shortfall firms and understate it in surplus firms. This leads to the appearance that firms with shortfalls are cutting back on investment when, in fact, they are not, whereas surplus firms appear to increase investment when they are not. To test this possibility, we repeat our analysis, but now define expected investment in three different ways. First, we assume that the firm’s ratio of investment to assets remains constant. Therefore, expected CAPEXt = (CAPEXt-1/Assetst-2) ×Assetst-1 and expected R&D = (R&Dt-1/Assetst-2) ×Assetst-1. Second, we assume that the firm’s expected investment ratio in each year is the industry median ratio for that year plus the deviation from the industry median in the prior year. Thus, for example, CAPEXt/Assetst-1 = CAPEXt/Assetst-1 for the median industry 13 firm + (CAPEXt-1/Assetst-2 for the firm – CAPEXt-1/Assetst-2 for the median firm). This allows for firm-specific deviations of investment ratios from the industry median. Third, following Coles, Daniel, and Naveen (2006), we estimate expected CAPEXt/Assetst-1 and R&Dt/Assetst-1 ratios using coefficient estimates from a regression of lagged investment ratios on a set of control variables. Specifically, we first regress the CAPEXt/Assetst-1 and R&Dt/Assetst-1 ratios on firm size, lagged and contemporaneous market-to-book ratio, sales growth, leverage, lagged and contemporaneous annual stock returns, CEO pay-performance sensitivity (delta), the sensitivity of CEO wealth to stock return volatility (vega), CEO cash compensation, CEO tenure, and year and 2-digit SIC dummies. 11 Note that unlike Coles et al. (2006), we deliberately do not include a measure of cash flow as a regressor since we separately examine the impact of cash flow shortfalls on investment and dividend levels. Our results are not sensitive to this choice, however. We obtain qualitatively similar results if we include cash flow as a regressor when estimating expected investment. Table 4 reports how firms resolve cash flow shortfalls under the alternative measures of expected investment. Our main inferences remain unchanged. Regardless of how we define expected investment, in untabulated results, we find that between 34% and 36% of the sample firms exhibit a cash flow shortfall. More importantly, the results in Table 4 show that, regardless of the investment measure, firms fund their shortfall primarily through investment cutbacks and through external financing. The reductions in investment are economically large relative to prior levels and to industry benchmarks. By contrast, fewer than 6% of the firms with shortfalls cut their dividend and reductions in cash holdings are economically trivial, on average. Table 5 explores the extent to which firms resolve cash flow shortfalls differently depending on the size of the shortfall. We sort dividend payers into quintiles on the basis of the 11 All variables are defined in the Appendix and the coefficient estimates are reported there as well. 14 shortfall, then report how firms resolve the shortfall within each quintile. subsequent results, we return to our original measure of expected investment. For these and Four results stand out. First, on average, even the firms with the highest shortfall increase their dividends. Only 8% of these firms cut dividends. Second, investment cutbacks and external financing remain the primary means of resolving the shortfall. The investment cutback as a percentage of the shortfall does not appear to increase monotonically with shortfall but this appears to be driven by the low shortfall groups which have average shortfalls of only $5M and $20M (since we are dividing the investment cutback by a very small number). Third, only when the shortfall becomes very large do firms resort to raising money from the sale of non-operating assets. Fourth, reductions in cash balances do not appear to be a significant source of funds for any of the groups. In Panel B, we again examine whether the above results are widespread in the crosssection. We compute the percentage of firms in each group that raise money from each of the five sources. We find that 5% of the firms in the lowest level of shortfall cut their dividends. Even in the highest shortfall group, only 8% of firms cut their dividends. We find, however, that as we move from the lowest quintile to the highest, the percentage of firms that cut back on investment monotonically increases from 60% to 78%. In all but the lowest quintile, the fraction of firms that raises external finance remains roughly the same (around 61%-63%). Thus, it appears that, as the shortfall gets larger, firms are more likely to resort to investment cutbacks rather than outside financing to bridge the shortfall. 12 Neither non-operating cash nor cash drawdowns seems to be a significantly source of funding, consistent with our earlier results Our results are qualitatively similar if we use our alternative measures of expected investment as in Table 4. We also obtain similar qualitative results if we scale the size of the shortfall by total assets. 12 15 (except for the highest shortfall group – 62% of firms in this quintile tap into non-operating cash). The bottom line is that, regardless of the size of the shortfall, firms rarely cut back on dividend payments. Rather, cash shortfalls are covered primarily via reductions in investment and increases in external financing. When the shortfall is particularly large, these sources are supplemented with cash generated from the sale of equity investments in affiliates (“nonoperating assets”). 5. A Closer Look at the Sources of Funds used to Cover Cash Shortfalls In this section, we provide a more in-depth analysis of the sources of external finance, the types of investment cutbacks, and the nature of asset sales used to cover cash shortfalls. In Table 6, we first sort dividend payers into quintiles on the basis of their shortfall. In panel A, we report the components of external financing, primarily net cash from equity and net cash from debt. As demonstrated in Table 5, external financing increases with the size of the shortfall. The results in panel A indicates that this comes through debt rather than equity. As the magnitude of the shortfall increases, firms do issue more stock (column 1), but also repurchase more shares (column 2), leaving net equity (column 3) as increasingly negative. 13 Thus, regardless of the magnitude of the shortfall, firms, on average, do not appear to rely on equity to cover the shortfall. Rather, net external financing takes the form of debt. As reported in Column (6), net debt issues increase monotonically with the magnitude of the shortfall. On net, this external debt financing increases the firm’s debt ratio by 4.2%, on average. The increase is larger for firms While at first glance this may be surprising, it is possible that these firms facing a cash flow shock and, in turn, an earnings shock, could be managing their earnings per share upwards by repurchasing shares. This ensures that firms meet their dividend thresholds (Daniel, Denis, and Naveen (2007)). See Kahle (2002), Bens et al. (2003), and Hribar, Jenkins, and Johnson (2006) for earnings management through share repurchases. 13 16 with larger shortfalls. Overall, these findings are consistent with Fama and French (2002) who find that short-term variations in earnings and investments are largely absorbed by debt. In Panel B, we examine the break up of investment reductions. Recall that our measure of investment is CAPEX + R&D × (1–t). Because Himmelberg and Petersen (1994) suggest that firms may find it harder to adjust R&D in response to fluctuations in cash flow, we examine whether the reductions in investment that we observe are driven by reductions in CAPEX. In addition, we gauge the economic magnitude of such cutbacks by estimating the ratio of investment cutback to the level of expected investment. Perhaps not surprisingly, we first observe that as the magnitude of the shortfall increases, the investment cutback as a percentage of expected investments typically increases. For firms in the quintile with the largest shortfall, investment is 22% below expected levels. In general, the percentage reductions in R&D relative to expected levels are larger than those for CAPEX and R&D. R&D and CAPEX are economically meaningful. Finally, in panel C we disaggregate net asset sales into its individual components: (i) net cash from affiliates – i.e, the sale and purchase of investments in unconsolidated subsidiaries and joint ventures, (ii) net cash from property, plant, and equipment (PPE) – i.e., cash from the sale of PPE less purchases of assets by acquisitions, 14 and (iii) net cash from miscellaneous investing activities, which includes cash received due to the separation of subsidiaries – i.e., carve outs. Although our earlier results imply that net asset sales are not, on average, an important source of funding for firms with cash shortfalls (except, perhaps, among those firms with the largest shortfalls), we observe a slightly different picture once we disaggregate this funding Nonetheless, the cuts in both Acquisitions includes increase in investments in consolidated subsidiaries as well as purchase of physical assets, but the break-up of investment across these two groups is not available in Compustat. So this could either be classified as contributing to net cash in affiliates or net cash in PPE. We decide to include acquisitions in the latter group since purchase of physical assets is likely to be a bigger contributor to acquisitions. 14 17 source. Net cash from affiliates (column 3) and net cash from the sale of PPE (column 6) are negative for all shortfall groups and become more negative as the size of the shortfall increases. However, cash from miscellaneous investing activities (column 7) is positive for all shortfall groups, indicating that firms with shortfalls raise money through this source. Notably, the cash raised in this category constitutes about 50% of the shortfall for all the shortfall groups. This result is consistent with studies such as Allen and McConnell (1998) that find that firms engage in equity carve outs when they are liquidity constrained. 6. Policy The Impact of Growth Opportunities, Financial Flexibility, and Prior Dividend Our earlier results establish that, on average, firms with cash shortfalls treat the maintenance of dividends as a priority and resolve the shortfall primarily with a combination of investment reductions and external debt financing. Nonetheless, these average findings potentially mask important heterogeneity in the manner in which firms resolve cash shortfalls. In this section, we examine the impact of growth opportunities, financial flexibility, and prior dividend policy on the manner in which firms resolve the shortfall. For each characteristic, we sort payers into two equal-sized groups based on the median value of the characteristic. We then report in Table 7 the magnitude of the shortfall and the percentage of the shortfall covered by each source of funds. We first consider the effect of growth opportunities. We expect that firms with better growth opportunities are less likely to cut investment and more likely to cover the shortfall with external financing and dividend reductions. To proxy for growth opportunities, we compute the ratio of the firm’s market value (market value of equity + book value of total assets – book value 18 of equity) to the book value of its assets and sort all payers with a positive shortfall into two groups based on the lagged value of this variable. As expected, firms with a higher market-tobook ratio cover a lower percentage of the shortfall with investment cutbacks than do firms with lower market-to-book ratios (48% versus 70%). Nonetheless, these firms still finance nearly half of the shortfall via reductions in investment relative to expected levels. Moreover, these cutbacks are economically meaningful. Investment in firms with high market-to-book ratios is 13% below expected levels. (These data are not reported in the table.) The data also indicate that high growth companies with shortfalls are much more likely to cover the shortfall via external financing. In fact, high market-to-book firms cover 85% of their shortfall with external cash, as compared to 14% for the low market-to-book firms. One explanation for this is that the high-growth firms face lower costs of external finance because the market recognizes the value of their growth opportunities. Interestingly, there is little evidence that growth opportunities affects the likelihood of firms cutting dividends or drawing down on their cash balance to cover the shortfall. Low market-to-book firms leave dividends unchanged, on average, while high market-to-book firms actually increase dividends slightly in response to the shortfall. Both high market-to-book and low market-to-book firms increase their cash balances in the year of the shortfall. Turning to measures of financial flexibility, we expect that firms with a shortfall are less likely to cut investment if they have more financial flexibility. We consider three different measures of financial flexibility: leverage (ratio of debt to assets), cash holdings (ratio of cash to assets), and z-score. Firms with low leverage are presumably more likely to have spare debt capacity, thereby allowing them to borrow funds and avoid large reductions in investment. Similarly, firms with high cash holdings can draw down on these balances without having to 19 resort to extensive investment cutbacks. 15 Finally, to the extent that firms with a lower z-score have a higher probability of bankruptcy, this makes it more costly to cover the shortfall through external financing. Consistent with these conjectures, we find that firms cover a greater percentage of their shortfall with external financing when they have lower leverage (69% vs. 31%) and higher zscores (84% vs. 13%). Firms with higher cash holdings do cover a greater percentage of the shortfall with cash drawdowns than do firms with low cash holdings. However, even the high cash holdings firms cover only 10% of the shortfall by reducing their cash balance. These patterns impact the extent to which firms cut back on planned investment. While firms with high leverage cover 72% of their shortfall with reductions in planned investment, firms with low leverage cover only 38% of the shortfall with investment cuts. Similarly, while firms with low zscore cover 67% of the shortfall with investment cuts, this percentage is only 33% for firms with high z-scores. Finally, firms with low cash holdings cover 66% of the shortfall with investment cuts while firms with high cash holdings cover 53%. Thus, although investment cuts are material regardless of the sub-sample examined, financial flexibility in the form of either unused external financing capacity or greater cash on hand has an important impact on the degree to which shortfalls are financed with investment cuts. Again, firms do not appear to cut dividends to cover the shortfall, regardless of their financial flexibility. Another factor that could impact how firms resolve cash flow shortfalls is their prior dividend policy. DeAngelo and DeAngelo (1990) and DeAngelo and DeAngelo (2006b) argue that the managers of firms with a long history of paying dividends have greater incentives to We have also computed the numbers in Table 7 using measures of excess leverage and excess cash, where the excess is measured relative to the median firm in the same 2-digit SIC industry. Using these measures, the differences in the relative importance of investment cuts between the high leverage and low leverage and high cash and low cash firms are slightly larger than what we document in Table 7. 15 20 avoid dividend cuts. If so, it is possible that firms with shorter dividend histories will be more willing to cut dividends and, therefore, avoid deeper investment cuts. Dividend history is defined as the number of uninterrupted years over which the firm has paid dividends. The average firm in our sample has a dividend history of 22 years. A second variable that we use to capture the firm’s dividend policy is the dividend payout ratio. It is likely that firms with higher dividend payout ratios have clienteles that are more concerned with maintaining the dividend level. Thus, it is possible that these firms are less willing to cut dividends to finance cash shortfalls. We do find that firms with a longer dividend history rely more on investment cutbacks relative to firms with a shorter dividend history (69% versus 50%). Also, firms with higher payout cut back on investments to a greater extent than those with a low payout (62% versus 59%), but in this case, the difference is not very large. However, regardless of the length of dividend history or the payout ratio, firms do not cut their dividend, on average. To this point, our analysis has focused on dividend payers since we are primarily interested in the tradeoff (if any) between dividends and investment. As a final analysis, however, the bottom panel of Table 7 contrasts the behavior of dividend payers with that of nonpayers. Because payers are larger firms than non-payers, the average shortfall for payers is about two-and-a-half times larger than that of non-payers ($142M versus $56M). Contrary to the commonly-held view that dividend payers are less financially constrained than non-payers, payers finance a greater percentage of the shortfall through investment cutbacks (61% versus 32%) and a lower proportion of the shortfall through external cash (44% versus 67%). Nonpayers and payers also differ in terms of their cash drawdowns. Non-payers use existing cash balances to finance 10% of their shortfall, whereas payers increase their cash balances. 21 Overall, we find some significant cross-sectional differences in how firms resolve cash shortfalls. Consistent with intuition, firms with greater growth opportunities and more financial flexibility finance a greater percentage of the cash shortfall with external financing and a lower percentage with investment cuts than are firms with poorer growth options and less financial flexibility. Reductions in cash balances rarely finance a significant portion of the shortfall, but are larger in firms with higher beginning cash balances. Asset sales appear to be important only among firms with low z-scores. The one notable constant in our results is that, regardless of the sub-sample that we examine, firms do not resolve cash shortfalls by reducing dividends. 7. Discussion and Conclusions Our findings provide striking evidence of the importance that firms place on the maintenance of dividends. In the face of significant cash flow shortfalls, firms virtually never cut their dividend, instead relying on cuts in investment and costly external debt financing to resolve the shortfall. As such, our findings challenge several widely-held views that guide much of the corporate finance literature. First, though the notion that firms are reluctant to cut dividends is certainly not new, it is typically assumed that this is a byproduct of dividend policies that are set so that it is unlikely that the firm’s cash flow would ever necessitate a reduction in the dividend. In the event of such a liquidity crunch, the presumption is that firms would treat investment policy as being of first-order importance and treat dividends as the residual. Our findings strongly contradict this presumption in that firms behave as if the maintenance of dividends is of first-order importance and appear to treat investment policy as more of a residual. Second, the literature on the interaction of financing and investment decisions commonly assumes that dividend payers are less financially constrained than are non-payers. This 22 assumption is based on the view that faced with a cash shortfall, dividend payers can always cut their dividend to meet investment needs rather than using costly external financing. This view appears to be flawed in the sense that once firms pay dividends, they appear to be more likely to cut investment than to cut dividends. Third, a standard assumption in agency cost-based models is that managers will always invest if they can and that dividends are a relatively poor constraint on this behavior. Again, the overwhelming reluctance of managers to cut dividends contradicts this assumption. Faced with a cash shortfall, managers exhibit a strong preference for cutting investment. Finally, models of optimal cash holdings imply that cash balances are set so as to serve as a buffer in times of liquidity shortages. It is assumed that faced with a shortfall, firms will temporarily draw down these cash balances so as to avoid costly external financing. Our findings suggest that firms in a liquidity crunch finance only a modest portion of the shortfall by drawing down cash reserves, but do access the external capital market if they appear to have debt capacity. This suggests that financial flexibility in the form of debt capacity has a significant impact on the costs of external finance. One explanation for our findings is that the presence of a shortfall is correlated with diminished growth opportunities. Therefore, we might observe firms cutting investment and leaving dividends unchanged even if investment policy is of first-order importance and dividends are the residual. We are skeptical of this alternative explanation for several reasons. First, we control for time-variation in the firm’s growth opportunities using both industry and firmspecific data and continue to find the same results. Second, our findings are robust to several alternative measures of expected investment. Third, in our cross-sectional results, even those 23 firms with the highest ratios of market value to book value exhibit the tendency to cut investment and seek external financing rather than cut dividends. . We acknowledge that we cannot completely reject this alternative without a more complete model of the ‘right’ level of investment. However, even if observed shortfalls are a reflection of diminished growth opportunities, our findings at a minimum imply that firms treat the maintenance of dividends as being of primary importance. The sample firms could have avoided going to the capital market to cover the shortfall, but chose not to do so. In this regard, our results support the ideas advanced in DeAngelo and DeAngelo (2006b) regarding the benefits of higher dividend payouts combined with lower levels of debt. The higher payout mitigates free cash flow problems while the lower levels of debt provide increased financial flexibility. 24 Appendix This appendix defines the variables and the methodology used in the study. Stock return data and quarterly dividend data are taken from CRSP, firm-level data from Compustat, and compensation data from Execucomp. Compustat data items are defined as data#. A1. Compustat data item numbers and definitions of main variables used in the study Variable Sales Assets Operating Cash Flow (OCF) Funds from Operations EBEXTRA Preferred Dividends Dividends Payer Payout Ratio Effective Tax Rate Leverage Cash-to-assets Z-score Definition Compustat data item# data12 data6 data308 data110 data18 data19 data21 = 1 if data21 in prior year > 0 = 0 otherwise data21 / (data18 – data19) data16 / data170 = 0 if data16 / data170 ≤ 0 = 1 if data16 / data170 ≥ 1 (data9 + data34) / data6 data1 / data6 3.3×data178/data6 + 1.2×(data4–data5)/data6 + data12/data6 + 0.6×data199×data25/(data9+data34) + 1.4×data36/data6 (data6 – data60 + data199×data25) / data6 Income before extra-ordinary items Dividends / Earnings Taxes / Pre-tax Income Debt / Book value of assets Cash / Book value of assets Market-to-book (Book assets – Book equity + Market equity) / Book assets Variable CEO Delta (’000s) CEO Vega ($) Dividend History (years) CF Shock CF Permanence Definition Dollar change in CEO wealth for a 1% change in stock price, computed as in Core and Guay (2002) Dollar change in CEO wealth for a 1 point change in stock return volatilty, computed as in Guay (1999) Number of years of uninterrupted dividend payments. OCFt −1 ⎞ 1 ⎛ OCFt −2 OCFt −3 OCFt −4 ⎞ 1 ⎛ OCFt ⎜ ⎟− ⎜ ⎟ , where year t is + + + 2 ⎜ Assets t −1 Assetst −2 ⎟ 3 ⎜ Assetst −3 Assetst −4 Assetst −5 ⎟ ⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠ the year in which shortfall is computed. See Guay and Harford (2000). OCFt + 2 OCFt +1 ⎞ 1 ⎛ OCFt − 2 OCFt −3 OCFt −4 ⎞ 1 ⎛ OCFt + 3 ⎜ ⎟− ⎜ + + ⎜ Assets ⎟ 3 ⎜ Assets + Assets + Assets ⎟ , where ⎟ 3⎝ Assets t +1 Assetst ⎠ t +2 t −3 t −4 t −5 ⎠ ⎝ year t is the year in which shortfall is computed. See Guay and Harford (2000). 25 A2. Statement of Cash Flows (SCF) when format code=7 Data Item # Operating Activities: Net Cash Flow (OCF) Investing Activities Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) Sale of Investments Increase in Investments Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment Acquisitions Investing Activities – Other Short-term Investments – Change Investing Activities: Net Cash Flow (= – data128 + data109 – data113 + data107 – data129 + data310 + data309 ) Financing Activities Cash Dividends (includes, among others, Stock dividend and preferred dividend) Sale of Common and Preferred Stock Purchase of Common and Preferred Stock Long-term Debt – Issuance Long-term Debt – Reduction Changes in Current Debt Financing Activities – Other Financing Activities: Net Cash Flow (= –data127 + data108 – data115 + data111 – data114 + data301 + data312) Exchange Rate Effect Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents (= data308 + data311 + data313 + data314) data127 data108 data115 data111 data114 data301 data312 data313 data314 data274 data128 data109 data113 data107 data129 data310 data309 data311 data308 26 A3. Variables derived from the SCF Non-operating Cash: PPE (Divestitures) Non-operating Cash: PPE (Acquisitions) Non-operating Cash: PPE (Net) Non-operating Cash: Affiliates (Sale) Non-operating Cash: Affiliates (Investment) Non-operating Cash: Affiliates (Net) Non-operating Cash: Misc. Non-operating Cash = Non-operating Cash: PPE (Net) + Non-operating Cash: Affiliates (Net) + Non-operating Cash: Misc. External Cash: Equity (Issue) External Cash: Equity (Repurchase) External Cash: Equity (Net) External Cash: Debt (Issue) External Cash: Debt (Retire) External Cash: Debt (Net) External Cash: Misc. External Cash = External Cash: Equity (Net) + External Cash: Debt (Net) + External Cash: Misc. Cash Drawdown A4. Investment measures CAPEX ($M) R&D ($M) Investments ($M) Expected CAPEX ($M) Expected R&D ($M) Expected Investments ($M) Capital expenditure Research and Development expenditure CAPEX + R&D × (1–T), where T is the effective tax rate Industry median ratio of CAPEX/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets Industry median ratio of R&D/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets Expected CAPEX + Expected R&D × (1–T) data128 Max(0, data46) data107 data129 data107 – data129 data109 data113 data109 – data113 data310 data107 – data129 + data109 – data113 + data310 data108 data115 data108 – data115 data111 + Max(0,data301) data114 – Min(0,data301) data111 – data114 + data301 data312 – (data127 – data19 – data21) data108 – data115 + data111 – data114 + data301 + data312 – (data127 – data19 – data21) – data274 + data309 + data314 27 Investments Cutback ($M) A5. Dividend measures Dividends ($M) Expected Dividends ($M) Dividend Cutback ($M) Expected Investments – Investments Annual cash dividends to common stock holders Lagged common dividends Expected Dividends – Dividends data21 Lagged data21 A6. Financing Shortfall measures Available Cash Flow ($M) Shortfall ($M) OCF + R&D×(1–T) – Preferred Dividends = Expected Investments + Expected Dividends – Available Cash Flow = Investment Cutback + Dividend Cutback + Non-operating Cash + External Cash + Cash Drawdown A6. Lintner (1956) model results Following Fama (1974) and Grullon and Michaely (2002), for the sample of firms that paid dividends both in the current year and the prior year, we regress the change in dividend (Dividendst – Dividendst-1) on EBEXTRAt and Dividendst-1. Our regression results, with tstatistics (corrected for heteroskedasticity and firm-level clustering of standard errors) in parentheses, are reproduced below. Dividendst – Dividendst-1 = -1.509 + 0.031 EBEXTRAt + 0.001 Dividendst-1 (-3.5) (12.4) (0.2) Number of observations = 7952; R2 = 54% The results above are not comparable with the results reported in the above studies because of the different time periods and samples being considered. 28 A7. Expected investments: Alternative measure We also estimate cutbacks in investments using a regression approach. To estimate the expected investments, we first estimate separate regressions of CAPEXt/Assetst-1 and R&Dt/Assetst-1. Exclude Available Cash Flow CAPEXt /Assetst-1 Vegat (× 10 ) Deltat (× 10-6) Cash Compensationt (× 10-6) CEO Tenuret (× 10-3) Log(Salest) Market-to-bookt-1 Market-to-bookt Available Cash Flowt-1 / Assetst-2 Available Cash Flowt /Assetst-1 Salest / Salest-1 Leveraget Fiscal stock returnt-1 Fiscal stock returnt Constant Year Dummies 2-digit SIC dummies Observations R-square 0.038*** (10.6) -0.007 (1.0) 0.007 (5.6) 0.003 (2.3) 0.023 (3.3) Yes Yes 13960 0.377 *** -6 R&Dt /Assetst-1 22.084*** (4.3) -1.567* (1.8) 3.097*** (2.9) -0.531*** (4.4) -0.012*** (9.0) 0.008*** (10.0) 0.004*** (4.2) -0.523 (0.1) 0.037 (0.1) -1.858* (1.7) 0.156 (1.2) -0.000 (0.1) 0.005*** (5.8) 0.001 (1.0) 0.020*** (6.0) -0.023*** (3.2) -0.007 (5.4) 0.004 (2.6) 0.082 (9.3) Yes Yes 13963 0.462 *** ** *** *** *** 29 Expected CAPEXt is the predicted value of CAPEXt /Assetst-1 multiplied by the firm’s Assetst-1, while Expected R&Dt is the predicted value of R&Dt /Assetst-1 multiplied by firm’s Assetst-1. 30 References Aharony, J., Swary, I., 1980. 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Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Edited by Constantinides, G., Harris, M., Stulz, R. 34 Table 1 Sample Description The sample comprises all firms on Execucomp for the period 1992-2005. A firm is defined as a Payer in a given year if it paid cash dividends in the prior year (regardless of whether the firm paid common dividends in the current year). Dividends is the annual cash dividend paid in $M. Expected Dividends is the annual cash dividend paid in the prior year, and is zero for non-payers. CAPEX is the capital expenditures in $M. R&D is the research & development expenditures in $M. Investments equals CAPEX + R&D×(1–t), where t is the effective tax rate. t is set to zero if less than zero and is set to 1 if greater than 1. Expected CAPEX is the capital expenditures that the firm should spend in $M. Expected CAPEX equals industry median CAPEX/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets, where the industry median is computed using data on all firms (both payers and non-payers included) at the 2-digit SIC level for each year. Similarly, Expected R&D equals industry median R&D/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets. Expected Investments equals Expected CAPEX + Expected R&D×(1–T). OCF is the net cash flow from operating activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows. Available Cash Flow equals OCF + R&D×(1–T) – preferred dividends. Shortfall equals Expected Investments + Expected Dividends – Available Cash Flow. ∆ Expected Investments is the change in expected investments. ∆ Available Cash Flow is the change in available cash flow. N A. Shortfall > 0 All firms Payers Non-payers B. Shortfall ≤ 0 All firms Payers Non-payers 5,279 2,693 2,586 11,227 5,514 5,713 Expected Investment 243 382 98 218 346 95 Expected Dividends 40 78 0 55 112 0 Available Cash Flow 176 306 41 511 795 236 Shortfall 100 142 56 -218 -303 -135 ∆ Expected Investment 12 18 6 11 14 8 ∆ Available Cash Flow -33 -42 -23 70 96 45 35 Table 2 A Closer Look at Firms with Positive Cash Flow Shortfalls The sample comprises all firms on Execucomp for the period 1992-2005. A firm is defined as a Payer in a given year if it paid cash dividends in the prior year (regardless of whether the firm paid common dividends in the current year). Dividends is the annual cash dividend paid in $M. Expected Dividends is the annual cash dividend paid in the prior year, and is zero for non-payers. CAPEX is the capital expenditures in $M. R&D is the research & development expenditures in $M. Investments equals CAPEX + R&D×(1–t), where t is the effective tax rate. t is set to zero if less than zero and is set to 1 if greater than 1. Expected CAPEX is the capital expenditures that the firm should spend in $M. Expected CAPEX equals industry median CAPEX/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets, where the industry median is computed using data on all firms (both payers and non-payers included) at the 2-digit SIC level for each year. Similarly, Expected R&D equals industry median R&D/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets. Expected Investments equals Expected CAPEX + Expected R&D×(1–T). OCF is the net cash flow from operating activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows. Available Cash Flow equals OCF + R&D×(1–T) – preferred dividends. Shortfall equals Expected Investments + Expected Dividends – Available Cash Flow. Shortfall A. All Firms Level Shortfall as a % of level % of firms that could fund 100% of shortfall. B. Payers Level Shortfall as a % of level % of firms that could fund 100% of shortfall. C. Non-payers Level Shortfall as a % of level % of firms that could fund 100% of shortfall. 100 NA NA Expected Investment 243 41.2% 75% Expected Dividend 40 250% 14% Casht-1 163 61.3% 56% Dividend t-1 + Cash t-1 205 48.8% 62% 142 NA NA 382 37.2% 80% 78 182.1% 28% 203 70.0% 50% 286 49.7% 63% 56 NA NA 98 57.1% 70% 0 NA 0% 121 46.3% 61% 121 46.3% 61% 36 Table 3 How do firms resolve cash shortfalls? The table reports the magnitude of the cut in investment expenditures and the amount of cash raised from other sources in response to a cash shortfall facing dividend payers. The sample comprises all dividend payers from Execucomp for the period 1992-2005. A firm is defined as a Payer in a given year if it paid cash dividends in the prior year (regardless of whether the firm paid common dividends in the current year). Dividends is the annual cash dividend paid in $M. Expected Dividends is the annual cash dividend paid in the prior year, and hence zero for non-payers. CAPEX is the capital expenditures in $M. R&D is the research & development expenditures in $M. Investments equals CAPEX + R&D×(1–t), where t is the effective tax rate. t is set to zero if less than zero and is set to 1 if greater than 1. Expected CAPEX is the capital expenditures that the firm should spend in $M. Expected CAPEX equals industry median CAPEX/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets, where the industry median is computed using data on all firms (both payers and non-payers included) at the 2-digit SIC level for each year. Similarly, Expected R&D equals industry median R&D/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets. Expected Investments equals Expected CAPEX + Expected R&D×(1–T). OCF is the net cash flow from operating activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows. Available Cash Flow equals OCF + R&D×(1–T) – preferred dividends. Shortfall equals Expected Investments + Expected Dividends – Available Cash Flow. Investment Cutback equals Expected Investments – Investments. Dividend Cutback equals Expected Dividends – Dividends. Non-operating Cash is net cash flow from investing activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows but does not include CAPEX and change in short-term investments. External Cash is net cash flow from financing activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows but does not include common dividends and preferred dividends. Cash Drawdown is the drawdown in cash and short-term investments. All variables are winsorized at the 1st and 99th percentile levels to remove the effect of outliers. Hence, shortfall will not equal expected investments plus expected dividends minus available cash flow. Also, the sum of the five sources (the last 5 columns in the table below) will not equal the shortfall (for example, -1+74+53+5-9 = 122 ≠ 142). To compute what % of Shortfall is financed by each of these five sources (second row of table), we divide the average value of each source by the sum of the average value of all 5 sources. For example, for ‘investment cutback,’ we divide the average investment cutback (=74) by the sum of the five sources (=122) instead of the shortfall (=142). This ensures that the percentages add up to 100. A positive number is interpreted as a source of cash for the firm, while a negative number is interpreted as a use of cash. % of Positive (% of Negative) indicate the percentage of shortfall (surplus) firm-years that have positive (negative) values for each of the five sources. Expected dividends $M Shortfall>0 % of Shortfall % positive Shortfall≤0 $M % of Shortfall % negative 112 78 Expected investment 382 Available cash flow 306 Shortfall 142 Dividend cutback -1 -1% 6% Investment cutback 74 61% 68% -56 20% 57% External cash 53 44% 60% -65 24% 63% Non-operating cash 5 4% 52% -97 35% 64% Cash drawdown -9 -7% 53% -47 17% 61% 346 795 -303 -10 4% 43% 37 Table 4 Alternative Measures of Expected Investment The table replicates Table 3 for various measures of expected investment. The table reports the magnitude of the reduction in investment expenditures and the amount of cash raised from other sources in response to a cash shortfall facing dividend payers. The sample comprises all dividend payers from Execucomp for the period 1992-2005. A firm is defined as a Payer in a given year if it paid cash dividends in the prior year (regardless of whether the firm paid common dividends in the current year). Dividends is the annual cash dividend paid in $M. Expected Dividends is the annual cash dividend paid in the prior year, and hence zero for non-payers. CAPEX is the capital expenditures in $M. R&D is the research & development expenditures in $M. Investments equals CAPEX + R&D×(1– t), where t is the effective tax rate. t is set to zero if less than zero and is set to 1 if greater than 1. Expected CAPEX is the capital expenditures that the firm should spend in $M. Expected CAPEX equals industry median CAPEX/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets, where the industry median is computed using data on all firms (both payers and non-payers included) at the 2-digit SIC level for each year. Similarly, Expected R&D equals industry median R&D/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets. Expected Investments equals Expected CAPEX + Expected R&D×(1–t). OCF is the net cash flow from operating activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows. Available Cash Flow equals OCF + R&D×(1–t) – preferred dividends. Shortfall equals Expected Investments + Expected Dividends – Available Cash Flow. Investment Cutback equals Expected Investments – Investments. Dividend Cutback equals Expected Dividends – Dividends. Nonoperating Cash is net cash flow from investing activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows but does not include CAPEX and change in short-term investments. External Cash is net cash flow from financing activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows but does not include common dividends and preferred dividends. Cash Drawdown is the drawdown in cash and short-term investments. All variables are winsorized at the 1st and 99th percentile levels to remove the effect of outliers. Hence, shortfall will not equal expected investments plus expected dividends minus available cash flow. Also, the sum of the five sources (the last 5 columns in the table below) will not equal the shortfall (for example, -1+74+53+5-9 = 122 ≠ 142). To compute what % of Shortfall is financed by each of these five sources (second row of table), we divide the average value of each source by the sum of the average value of all 5 sources. For example, for ‘investment cutback,’ we divide the average investment cutback (=74) by the sum of the five sources (=122) instead of the shortfall (=142). This ensures that the percentages add up to 100. A positive number is interpreted as a source of cash for the firm, while a negative number is interpreted as a use of cash. % of Positive (% of Negative) indicate the percentage of shortfall (surplus) firm-years that have positive (negative) values for each of the five sources. 38 Panel A: Expected Investment = Firm’s prior years investment scaled by assets Expected dividends $M Shortfall>0 % of Shortfall % positive Shortfall≤0 $M % of Shortfall % negative 109 368 756 -257 86 Expected investments 468 Available cash flow 401 Shortfall 161 Dividend cutback -3 -2% 6% -10 4% 43% Investment cutback 64 45% 65% -2 1% 55% External cash 74 52% 65% -76 32% 65% Non-operating cash 15 11% 53% -102 43% 64% Cash drawdown -9 -6% 53% -47 20% 61% Panel B: Expected Investment = Industry median investment ratio + Firm’s deviation from median investment ratio in prior year Expected dividends $M Shortfall>0 % of Shortfall % positive Shortfall≤0 $M % of Shortfall % negative 112 346 795 -303 85 Expected investments 448 Available cash flow 386 Shortfall 154 Dividend cutback -2 -2% 5% -10 4% 43% Investment cutback 53 39% 63% -56 6% 58% External cash 84 62% 66% -65 32% 65% Non-operating cash 8 6% 53% -97 39% 64% Cash drawdown -8 -5% 54% -47 19% 61% Panel C: Expected Investment = Predicted value from OLS regression of investment ratio Expected dividends $M Shortfall>0 % of Shortfall % positive Shortfall≤0 $M % of Shortfall % negative 129 426 914 -339 67 Expected investments 320 Available cash flow 255 Shortfall 112 Dividend cutback -2 -2% 5% -11 4% 43% Investment cutback 53 54% 74% -60 19% 50% External cash 45 46% 59% -72 24% 64% Non-operating cash 3 3% 50% -103 34% 63% Cash drawdown -1 -1% 53% -59 19% 62% 39 Table 5 A closer look into how firms manage cash shortfalls The table reports the magnitude of the cut in investment expenditures and the amount of cash raised from other sources in response to a cash shortfall facing dividend payers. The sample comprises all dividend payers from Execucomp for the period 1992-2005. A firm is defined as a Payer in a given year if it paid cash dividends in the prior year (regardless of whether the firm paid common dividends in the current year). Dividends is the annual cash dividend paid in $M. Expected Dividends is the annual cash dividend paid in the prior year, and hence zero for non-payers. CAPEX is the capital expenditures in $M. R&D is the research & development expenditures in $M. Investments equals CAPEX + R&D×(1–t), where t is the effective tax rate. t is set to zero if less than zero and is set to 1 if greater than 1. Expected CAPEX is the capital expenditures that the firm should spend in $M. Expected CAPEX equals industry median CAPEX/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets, where the industry median is computed using data on all firms (both payers and non-payers included) at the 2-digit SIC level for each year. Similarly, Expected R&D equals industry median R&D/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets. Expected Investments equals Expected CAPEX + Expected R&D×(1–T). OCF is the net cash flow from operating activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows. Available Cash Flow equals OCF + R&D×(1–T) – preferred dividends. Shortfall equals Expected Investments + Expected Dividends – Available Cash Flow. A positive shortfall indicates that the firm will have to either cut back on expected investment or raise additional cash to meet expected dividends. CAPEX Cutback equals Expected CAPEX – CAPEX. R&D Cutback equals Expected R&D – R&D. Non-operating Cash is net cash flow from investing activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows but does not include CAPEX and change in short-term investments. External Cash is net cash flow from financing activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows but does not include common dividends and preferred dividends. Cash Drawdown is the drawdown in cash and short-term investments. A positive number for these five “sources” of funds indicates that this avenue has been used to fund the shortfall. Firms with a positive shortfall are sorted into five groups each year based on the level of shortfall. All variables are defined in the Appendix. All variables are winsorized at the 1st and 99th percentile levels to remove the effect of outliers. Since we winsorize the variables, the average (dollar) shortfall will not equal the sum of the average (dollar) values of dividend cutback, investment cutback, external cash, non-operating cash, and cash drawdown. Thus, to compute what % of Shortfall (Panel A) is financed by each of these five sources, we divide the average dollar value of each source by the sum of the average dollar value of all five sources (instead of dividing by the average shortfall). This ensures that the percentages add up to 100. Panel B gives the percentage of shortfall firm-years that have positive values for each of the five sources. That is, the numbers indicate the percentage of shortfall firm-years that raise money from that source. Panel A: % of shortfall funded by each source Dividend Investment External Non-operating Cash Shortfall groups Shortfall cutback cutback cash cash drawdown Low = 1 2 3 4 High = 5 5 20 51 131 508 4% 0% -1% -2% -1% 86% 102% 45% 58% 61% 287% 91% 98% 50% 32% -257% -82% -35% -9% 18% -21% -11% -8% 1% -9% Panel B: % of firms that raised money from a given source Dividend Investment External Non-operating Cash Shortfall groups Shortfall cutback cutback cash cash drawdown Low = 1 2 3 4 High = 5 5 20 51 131 508 5% 6% 6% 6% 8% 60% 65% 68% 70% 78% 52% 61% 63% 62% 62% 46% 49% 50% 52% 62% 52% 56% 56% 53% 48% 40 Table 6 A disaggregated analysis of external financing, investment cuts, and asset sales The table reports the magnitude of the cut in investment expenditures and the amount of cash raised from other sources in response to a cash shortfall facing dividend payers. The sample comprises all dividend payers from Execucomp for the period 1992-2005. A firm is defined as a Payer in a given year if it paid cash dividends in the prior year (regardless of whether the firm paid common dividends in the current year). Dividends is the annual cash dividend paid in $M. Expected Dividends is the annual cash dividend paid in the prior year, and hence zero for non-payers. CAPEX is the capital expenditures in $M. R&D is the research & development expenditures in $M. Investments equals CAPEX + R&D×(1–t), where t is the effective tax rate. t is set to zero if less than zero and is set to 1 if greater than 1. Expected CAPEX is the capital expenditures that the firm should spend in $M. Expected CAPEX equals industry median CAPEX/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets, where the industry median is computed using data on all firms (both payers and non-payers included) at the 2-digit SIC level for each year. Similarly, Expected R&D equals industry median R&D/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets. Expected Investments equals Expected CAPEX + Expected R&D×(1–T). OCF is the net cash flow from operating activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows. Available Cash Flow equals OCF + R&D×(1–T) – preferred dividends. Shortfall equals Expected Investments + Expected Dividends – Available Cash Flow. A positive shortfall indicates that the firm will have to either cut back on expected investment or raise additional cash to meet expected dividends. CAPEX cutback equals Expected CAPEX – CAPEX. R&D cutback equals Expected R&D – R&D. External cash is net cash flow from financing activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows but does not include common dividends and preferred dividends. External cash: Stock is the net cash from issue and repurchase of stock. External cash: Debt is the net cash from issue and retirement of debt. External cash: Misc. is the net cash from sale of miscellaneous financing activities. ∆Debt/Assets is the ratio of change in total debt scaled by lagged assets. Non-operating cash is net cash flow from investing activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows but does not include CAPEX and change in short-term investments. Non-operating cash: Affiliates is the net cash from sale and purchase of investments in affiliates. Non-operating cash: PPE is the net cash from divestitures and acquisitions. Nonoperating cash: Misc. is the net cash from sale of miscellaneous investing activities. Cash drawdown is the drawdown in cash and short-term investments. Shortfall equals the sum of investment cutback, dividend cutback, non-operating cash, external cash, and cash drawdown. A positive number for these five “sources” of funds indicates that this avenue has been used to fund the shortfall. Firms with a positive shortfall are sorted into five groups each year based on the level of shortfall. All variables are defined in the Appendix. All variables are winsorized at the 1st and 99th percentile levels to remove the effect of outliers. Hence, the average will not add up to the sum of the parts. For example, external cash: debt will not equal the issue of debt less repurchase of debt. 41 Panel A: Breakup of External Cash Stock Repurchase 2 11 21 29 53 144 51 141 Debt Retire 5 71 103 193 341 808 302 293 Misc. Net 6 = 4–5 15 25 57 80 208 76 40 7 0 0 1 4 7 2 -1 Δ TD/TA 8 3.8% 5.2% 5.1% 4.6% 2.2% 4.2% 2.7% Shortfall groups Shortfall Low = 1 2 3 4 High = 5 All shortfall firms All surplus firms 5 20 51 131 508 142 -303 Issue 1 9 12 20 33 72 29 44 Net 3 = 1–2 -2 -9 -9 -21 -73 -23 -97 Issue 4 91 129 249 437 1,000 379 333 Panel B: Breakup of Investment Cutback Shortfall groups Shortfall Low = 1 2 3 4 High = 5 All shortfall firms All surplus firms 5 20 51 131 508 142 -303 Expected Investment cutback Expected CAPEX Cutback Expected R&D Cutback R&D Expected R&D investment Expected investment CAPEX Expected CAPEX 70 104 195 359 1,198 382 345 5% 17% 11% 19% 22% 19% -16% 59 84 159 303 996 318 269 -1% 13% 4% 15% 22% 17% -12% 17 29 48 81 267 88 106 25% 38% 44% 42% 25% 31% -27% Panel C: Breakup of Non-operating Cash Affiliates Purchase 2 21 19 51 117 349 110 153 PPE Divestitures Acquisitions 4 5 3 5 9 13 27 11 10 19 28 40 73 122 56 101 Misc. Net 6 = 4–5 -16 -23 -31 -59 -91 -44 -89 7 10 12 24 74 208 65 25 Nonoperating cash 8 = 3+6+7 -10 -14 -16 -10 75 5 -97 Shortfall groups Shortfall Low = 1 2 3 4 High = 5 All shortfall firms All surplus firms 5 20 51 131 508 142 -303 Sale 1 17 18 41 102 291 93 123 Net 3 = 1–2 -1 -2 -8 -18 -51 -16 -20 42 Table 7 The impact of firm characteristics on how firms resolve cash shortfalls The table reports the average dividend cutback, investment cutback, external cash, non-operating cash, and cash drawdowns as a percentage of Shortfall The sample is limited to firms with a positive shortfall. It includes all dividend payers from Execucomp for the period 1992-2005, except for the payer-non-payer subsample for which we consider all firms. A firm is defined as a Payer in a given year if it paid cash dividends in the prior year (regardless of whether the firm paid common dividends in the current year). We sort firms with a positive shortfall into two equal groups (High and Low) based on the median level of various firm characteristics. Market-to-book is the ratio of market value of assets to the book value of assets. Leverage is the lagged value of total debt-to-assets ratio. Cash holdings is the lagged value of cash-toassets ratio. Z-score is computed as in Altman (1968). Dividend history is the number of uninterrupted years over which the firm has paid dividends. Expected Dividends is the annual cash dividend paid in the prior year, and hence zero for non-payers. CAPEX is the capital expenditures in $M. R&D is the research & development expenditures in $M. Investments equals CAPEX + R&D×(1–t), where t is the effective tax rate. t is set to zero if less than zero and is set to 1 if greater than 1. Expected capital expenditures (CAPEX) equals industry median CAPEX/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets, where the industry median is computed using data on all firms (both payers and non-payers included) at the 2-digit SIC level for each year. Similarly, Expected R&D equals industry median R&D/lagged assets × Firm’s lagged assets. Expected Investment equals Expected CAPEX + Expected R&D×(1–T). OCF is the net cash flow from operating activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows. Available Cash Flow equals OCF + R&D×(1–T) – preferred dividends. Shortfall equals Expected Investment + Expected Dividends – Available Cash Flow. Investment Cutback equals Expected Investment – Investment. Dividend Cutback equals Expected Dividends – Dividends. Non-operating Cash is net cash flow from investing activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows but does not include CAPEX and change in short-term investments. External Cash is net cash flow from financing activities as given in the Statement of Cash Flows but does not include common dividends and preferred dividends. Cash Drawdown is the drawdown in cash and short-term investments. All variables are winsorized at the 1st and 99th percentile levels to remove the effect of outliers. Dividend cutback 0% -3% -2% -1% -1% -1% 0% -3% -1% -2% -1% -1% -1% -1% Investment External Non-operating cutback cash cash 70% 48% 38% 72% 66% 53% 67% 33% 50% 69% 59% 62% 32% 60% 14% 85% 69% 31% 48% 37% 13% 84% 40% 44% 46% 42% 67% 44% 21% -20% -5% 9% 5% 1% 33% -19% 10% 0% 5% 3% -8% 4% Cash drawdown -5% -10% 0% -11% -18% 10% -13% 5% 1% -11% -9% -6% 10% -7% Characteristic Growth Opportunities U U Shortfall Low High U Market-to-book Financial Flexibility U 159 125 103 181 163 121 177 97 114 175 132 153 56 142 Leverage Cash holdings Z-score Payout Policy U U Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Non-Payers Payers Dividend history (yrs) Payout ratio Payers vs. Non-payers 43