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Handicap to Handicap System

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					                          Handicap to Handicap System
      Here we are going to examine the statistics for horses which finish first,
second or third in handicap races, to see how they perform on their subsequent
runs.

       To try and concentrate on races with reliable form we’ll only include
handicaps with at least 14 runners – this eliminates small field events which are
often run at a false pace creating form which is often not repeated. We’ll also
apply this rule to the subsequent races as quite often handicap form doesn’t
carry through to non-handicaps, just as big field form doesn’t translate well to
races with a small amount of runners.

       The table below shows the results of all next-time-out runs from horses
which finished first, second or third in a handicap with 14 or more runners, as
long as they reappeared in another handicap with at least 14 runners…


              YEAR              WINS     RUNS   STRIKE%           LSP      LSP%
                  2001           198     1671     11.85       -177.71      -10.63
                  2002           173     1570     11.02       -288.44      -18.37
                  2003           152     1361     11.17       -348.57      -25.61
                  2004           142     1215     11.69       -168.02      -13.83
                  2005           128     1117     11.46       -152.33      -13.64

        If we break down these results into starting price bands, we can see that
blindly backing all of the qualifiers which were sent off as SP fav on their next run
would return a loss of just 1.18 LSP% from a total of 1569 bets…


            SP           WINS     RUNS          STRIKE%           LSP         LSP%
           Fav            347      1569            22.12        -18.57         -1.18
       2nd fav            150      1147            13.08       -167.00        -14.56
       3nd fav             87          935          9.30       -248.00        -26.52
        4th fav            81          785         10.32        -30.00         -3.82
        5th fav            32          563          5.68       -193.50        -34.37
        6th fav            28          451          6.21       -125.00        -27.72
        7th fav            23          368          6.25        -59.00        -16.03
       8th fav+            45      1116             4.03       -294.00        -26.61

        To lose just 1.18% of total stakes from 1569 bets is a solid base to build
on, so next we’ll examine the stats of the price bands of these favourites in their
qualifying races….
                  SP     WINS       RUNS     STRIKE%              LSP            LSP%
                 <7/2       68       264        25.76            -5.28            -2.00
           4/1 to 15/2     111       553        20.07           -82.04           -14.84
           8/1 to 15/1     111       515        21.55           +19.54           +3.79
          16/1 to 28/1      50       197        25.38           +52.46       +26.63
       33/1 and more            7      40       17.50            -3.25            -8.13


       Very interesting that it’s the horses which were sent off at the bigger prices
on their previous run perform better next time out than the horses which were
sent off at short odds.
       I think this suggests that if a horse is relatively unfancied and runs a big
race to finish in the first three in a big field handicap (14 runners or more) then
the horse has run above expectations and is probably a little bit ahead of its
handicap mark. Conversely, if a horse is fancied and finishes in the first three, it
probably hasn’t run above expectations (just run to its current mark) and
therefore is not ahead of the handicapper.

      The final stats we’ll look at is the number of days the qualifying runners
were off the track before their qualifying run…

        DAYS OFF
 BEFORE LAST RUN         WINS        RUNS         STRIKE%                 LSP              LSP%
            1-7 days       25          112              22.32       +11.75                +10.49
           8-15 days       35          179              19.55        -12.59                -7.03
         16-31 days        56          231              24.24       +46.38                +20.08
         32-47 days        24           71              33.80       +51.21                +72.13
         48-79 days        12           43              27.91       +16.50                +38.37
        80-111 days         4           13              30.77            +7.25            +55.77
       112-223 days         9           75              12.00        -34.00               -45.33
          >224 days         3           28              10.71        -17.75               -63.39

       Apart from a small loss on the ‘8-15 days’ band, it clearly pays to avoid
those qualifiers who had been off for at least 112 days before their qualifying run.
This is probably because many horses which run a big race after a break are
‘rest-pattern’ types, who often need another rest before they run again –
otherwise they bounce and can’t reproduce their good previous run.

        So if we add this final rule, we are left with the following results from the
last five seasons…
  YEAR      WINS           RUNS          STRIKE%      LSP       LSP%
  2001            44           186         23.66    +31.83      +8.20
  2002            30           131         22.90    +18.50      +5.01
  2003            23           112         20.54    -10.17      -7.65
  2004            27           113         23.89    +26.26     +23.24
  2005            32           107         29.91    +54.08     +50.54
TOTAL        156               649         24.04   +120.50     +18.57

The rules are….

a) Horse must have last raced in a handicap of at least 14 runners,
   finishing first, second or third, at 8/1 or longer
b) Horse must be running in a handicap of at least 14 runners
c) Horse must be SP fav (including joint or co-fav)
d) The horse must have been off the racecourse for no more than 111
   days before its last run


                               Results from 2004

Date        Cse        RcTyp     Horse             Position    SP

22/02/05    LIA        4+H       SENOR EDUARDO         3      4.5
28/03/05    WAR        3H        BADDAM                3      2.5
02/04/05    KEM        3+H       SEVEN NO TRUMPS      12      4.5
02/04/05    DON        4+H       STREAM OF GOLD        1        5
13/04/05    BEV        4+H       POLISH POWER         15      4.5
15/04/05    THI        3H        KNOCK BRIDGE          2      3.5
25/04/05    WSR        3H        DAVENPORT             1      4.5
06/05/05    NOT        3H        OAKLEY ABSOLUTE       1     3.33
07/05/05    NMR        3+H       KEW GREEN             1      4.5
09/05/05    WSR        3H        RAWAABET             12        6
14/05/05    NOT        3+AMH     SLING BACK            8        6
17/05/05    RED        3+H       TELEPATHIC           10        4
20/05/05    GOO        3+AH      ONE WAY TICKET        3        3
24/05/05    LIA        4+BH      COMPTON ECLAIRE       3        4
24/05/05    LIN        3H        RUMAN                 1     2.75
25/05/05    NMR        3H        ABIENTOT              8      3.5
26/05/05    AYR        3+H       SHIFTY               14     1.88
30/05/05    SAN        4+H       DESERT REIGN          4      4.5
03/06/05    THI        3+AH      POLAR FORCE           4        4
04/06/05    EPS        4+H       CROW WOOD             1      4.5
04/06/05    DON        3+H       TOUGH LOVE            2        4
04/06/05   CHP   3+H     SIR BLUEBIRD         12      4
06/06/05   PON   3+H     KANGARILLA ROAD       6    2.5
07/06/05   SAL   3+H     GOLDEN DIXIE          3      5
09/06/05   BRI   3+H     CAYMAN BREEZE         1    5.5
09/06/05   BRI   3+H     SAXON LIL             3    5.5
13/06/05   WSR   3+H     HABANERO              1    5.5
13/06/05   WSR   3H      SOUTH O'THE BORDER    3    5.5
13/06/05   WAR   3+H     LISTEN TO REASON      5   3.33
15/06/05   YOR   3+H     BALLAST               2    5.5
16/06/05   NBY   3+AH    ATTORNEY              1      4
22/06/05   SAL   3FH     COCONUT SQUEAK        1    4.5
25/06/05   LIA   3H      DISOBEY               6      4
02/07/05   LEI   3FH     MANIC                 4      5
02/07/05   HAY   3+H     WINTHORPE             7      6
02/07/05   CAR   4+MH    ROUGE ET NOIR         1      4
04/07/05   BAT   3MH     MASTER COBBLER        4      5
04/07/05   EDI   3H      FOREHAND             11   2.75
04/07/05   WSR   3+H     DORCHESTER           11      5
05/07/05   NMJ   3H      STETCHWORTH PRINCE    4    5.5
08/07/05   CHE   3H      FANTASY DEFENDER     11      5
08/07/05   CHP   3+H     MOONLIGHT MAN         1   2.25
11/07/05   WSR   3+H     DUNN DEAL             5      5
16/07/05   NBY   3+H     ACE OF HEARTS         7    3.5
16/07/05   RIP   3+MH    PREMIER PROSPECT      2      2
23/07/05   LIN   3+H     LISTEN TO REASON      7      5
27/07/05   GOO   3+H     AFRAD                 1      5
27/07/05   GOO   4+H     WANCHAI LAD           9    2.5
29/07/05   GOO   3+H     SIERRA VISTA          5      3
29/07/05   NMJ   3+H     POKER PLAYER          2    3.5
30/07/05   DON   3H      BOWNESS               3      2
30/07/05   LIN   3+H     PORTMEIRION           1    5.5
01/08/05   CAR   3H      OUTRAGEOUS FLIRT      3      4
03/08/05   BRI   3+H     BOUNDLESS PROSPECT    3      5
04/08/05   YAR   3+MH    ROWANBERRY            1      3
04/08/05   BRI   3+SH    TAIPAN TOMMY         10      5
06/08/05   LIN   3+H     WILL THE TILL         9      6
06/08/05   LIN   3+H     LABELLED WITH LOVE    1    3.5
11/08/05   CHP   3+AH    SHORT CHANGE          8   2.25
11/08/05   CHP   3+H     ELIDORE               1      5
12/08/05   FOL   3+FH    KALLISTA'S PRIDE      1    2.5
12/08/05   CAT   3+H     KALANI STAR           2    3.5
16/08/05   YOR   3+H     BRIDGE LOAN           7    5.5
23/08/05   BRI   3+H     KENSINGTON(I)         3      6
26/08/05   NCL   3+H     PRESS EXPRESS         1   1.75
27/08/05   YOR   3+DBH   IDEALISTIC            1      5
27/08/05   YOR   3+DBH   TEDSTALE             11      5
27/08/05   YOR   3H      TAX FREE              1   2.25
28/08/05   YAR   3+H    CHARLIE TANGO         6      6
29/08/05   CHP   3+H    GOT TO BE CASH        9      5
29/08/05   CHP   3+H    BALLYBUNION           1      4
02/09/05   HAY   3+BH   SILVERHAY            12    4.5
04/09/05   YOR   3+H    NEON BLUE             1    3.5
05/09/05   NCL   3+H    MUSIOTAL              9    6.5
08/09/05   BAT   3+H    NIGHT STORM           1      4
11/09/05   GOO   3+AH   DEEPER IN DEBT        1      4
12/09/05   RED   3+AH   POLAR FORCE           1    6.5
16/09/05   AYR   3+H    ICE PLANET           15      4
16/09/05   NOT   3+H    INTAVAC BOY           8    5.5
17/09/05   WAR   3+H    WILLHEGO              1      4
17/09/05   AYR   3+H    OUT AFTER DARK       14      8
19/09/05   CAR   3H     AZUREE                3    4.5
20/09/05   BEV   3+H    LIZARAZU              5   3.33
24/09/05   HAY   3+H    INCHNADAMPH          12    5.5
27/09/05   NOT   3+H    SUMMER RECLUSE        2      5
30/09/05   NMR   3+H    KING'S CAPRICE        8    5.5
30/09/05   NMR   3+H    MOAYED               16    5.5
30/09/05   LIA   3H     DIG DEEP              4   2.25
01/10/05   NMR   3+H    BLUE MONDAY           1      5
01/10/05   NMR   3H     SPEAR THISTLE         4    5.5
01/10/05   NMR   3H     KARLU                10    5.5
03/10/05   PON   2H     CHASE THE ACE         2      5
04/10/05   LEI   3+FH   DANCE TO THE BLUES    1    5.5
05/10/05   NOT   3+H    SECRETARY GENERAL     5      5
08/10/05   SAL   3+H    HIGH BRAY             1    3.5
09/10/05   NCL   3+H    EXTRA COVER          11    3.5
10/10/05   WSR   2H     BOLD CROSS            2      5
11/10/05   LEI   34SH   HOH BLEU DEE          8      5
14/10/05   NMR   3+H    NOTNOWCATO            1   2.75
16/10/05   EDI   3+H    PURE IMAGINATION      2    6.5
20/10/05   BRI   2H     HEAVEN CAN WAIT      10      5
22/10/05   NBY   2H     WOVOKA                8    4.5
29/10/05   NMR   3+H    COMMANDO SCOTT        6      6
05/11/05   DON   3+AH   GAME LAD              6    6.5
05/11/05   DON   3+AH   WIGWAM WILLIE        15    6.5
12/11/05   LIA   3+H    RAMSGILL              1    2.5
26/11/05   LIA   3+H    PRIME POWERED        12      4

				
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