Spring 2009 CFA Victoria 2009 Inaugural
PreSIdent’S Letter . . . . . . . . . . 2
Financial Market Forecast dinner
GLOBAL deMOGrAPHICS 1: The sages of the CFA Victoria Forecast Dinner:
And tHe IMPACt presenters (from left to right) Martin Barnes,
managing editor of the Bank Credit Analyst,
Tony Gage, former Chair of the Board of Phillips,
OPPOrtUnItIeS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Hager and North Investment Management,
and Martin Murenbeeld, president and chief
2009 InAUGUrAL economist of Dundee Wealth Economics.
FInAnCIAL MArket 1
FOreCASt dInner . . . . . . . . . . 4-5
rePOrt FrOM tHe CHAIr:
rOB Bennett, CFA . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
UPCOMInG eVentS . . . . . . . . . . . 7
MeMBer rePOrt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Opinions expressed in the CFA Victoria
newsletter do not necessarily represent
those of the authors’ firms of employment
or of CFA Victoria and do not constitute a
solicitation for the purchase or sale of any
financial instruments . Information herein
is obtained from various sources and is not 3
guaranteed for accuracy or completeness .
the authors’ firms and CFA Victoria there- 2: Mark Frey, Vice President, Foreign Exchange Trading, of Custom House Ltd., explains what he expects to be the
fore disclaim any liability arising from the
use of information in this publication .
major themes dominating investment markets in 2009. 3: Attendees at the Inaugural Financial Market Forecast
Dinner enjoy the reception beforehand: from left to right, Jim Megson, Carolyn Thoms, CFA, and Stephen Barlow,
CFA, both of Barlow Capital, Victoria, and Joan Wiggins, CFA, of RBC Private Counsel Inc., Victoria.
Published by CFA Victoria
President’s Letter of the woods – a sentiment echoed on the
aggregate by the attendee forecast ballots
Lisa Gray (www .graymatterstrategiesllc .com)
on March 31 . Ms . Gray exclusively consults
Andrew Shortreid, CFA we received . with global families to design and implement
goal-based asset allocation strategies that
the discussion at our monthly board meet-
incorporate family dynamics and governance
ings continues to revolve around two core
into wealth management decisions . this
themes that we want to define the society’s
event format will involve an afternoon pre-
activities – innovation and collaboration .
sentation and case study, open to the general
As a group, we continually seek new ways to
investment community, followed by a more
provide member value through initiatives
intimate reception and working dinner with
that the society has taken and fresh endeavors
attendance limited to CFA Victoria members .
in the future . we are an open, communica-
the goal is to provide a forum where our
tive and forward thinking leadership group
members can engage a globally recognized
with a deep desire to continually present our
expert in two-way, case-based discussion
society and its members to the world around
to achieve a deeper comprehension of
us in the best possible light .
specialized wealth management topics .
to amplify these efforts we are working
the other don’t-miss event is on May 27th .
through a growing network of local, regional
CFA Victoria, the Art Gallery of Greater
and national partners to extend the reach of
Victoria and Custom House are proud to
our initiatives beyond both the professional
present an evening with Steve Sitao Xu .
borders of CFA Charterholders and the
Based in Shanghai, Mr . Xu is the economist
physical borders of Greater Victoria . the
Group’s Chief representative in China and
foundation of this partnership group is
head of its economist Intelligence Unit . He
comprised of Custom House Ltd . and other
MUCH HAS CHAnGed In tHe wOrLd SInCe will be speaking on the Chinese banking
CFA societies in Canada and the US Pacific
our last newsletter, but I’m happy to report system, foreign exchange reserve and rate
northwest (Programming); the University
that despite recent events in world markets management, interest rate policy and other
of Victoria’s Faculty of Business and Stalla
CFA Victoria is prospering mightily and factors . Attendees will be invited to enjoy a
review for the CFA Program (education and
moving forward on many fronts . catered reception beginning at 5:00pm, and
Membership); and the Art Gallery of Greater
we kicked off the new Year in fine fashion to experience Edo, Arts of Japan’s Last Shogun
Victoria (Public Awareness) . Collectively these
with our Inaugural Forecast dinner on Age exhibition, following the presentation
organizations share our values of integrity
January 15th at the delta Ocean Pointe . By at 7:30pm . to bring Mr . Xu to Victoria, we
and excellence, while individually each
all accounts this event was an unequivocal quarterbacked a three society tour that will
enhances our offering to diverse, yet equally
success for the society, due in no small part include stops in kelowna and Seattle .
crucial elements of our stakeholder base .
to the hard work of our volunteers and the As always, our efforts are aimed at providing
we have an exciting line-up for the spring
broad support received from our members, society members with opportunities to enrich
slate of programming events . the full listing
partners and the local investment community . their professional lives and engage the wider
can be found on page 7, but two in particular
For readers not in attendance that evening, community in ways that will enhance public
demonstrate our commitment to innovation
we have provided an account of the festivities awareness of what CFA Victoria and our
and collaboration .
and prognostications beginning on page 4 . members stand for . regarding these efforts,
Suffice to say, the common message from our the first of these events is the launch of CFA we thank each of you for your feedback,
presenters was that investors are not yet out Victoria’s Private wealth roundtable with volunteerism and continued support .
Share your knowledge and insights with readers of the CFA Victoria Newsletter
Do you have a story idea or a topic that will Potential topic areas include, but are not If you have an idea for an article, please
interest and inform CFA Victoria members? limited to: send it to:
Send an e-mail to let us know what you • Industry developments Gord Walker, CFA
would like to see in the newsletter or if you • Investment themes Gordon.Walker@RBC.com
want to write something yourself. • Profiles of notable members
InVeStMent tHeMe Newsletter 3
Global demographics and the Impact
on Investment Opportunities
Philippe Monier, CFA of its people . In China, he claims, 1 .2 billion real GdP in this sort of analysis .
people are not or will not be covered by Hokenson next showed the growth rate of
Economist, Research & Risk
pension funds and will have to rely solely on age groups from 2005 to 2015, highlighting
family support in retirement . the decline in the age 20 to 29 cohort, espe-
dISCUSSInG deMOGrAPHIC trendS And In Japan, the aging population is leading cially in western europe and Japan . this age
how they will affect investment opportuni- to chronic deflation . the labour force size is group is characterized by high consumption
ties in coming years at a recent CFA Victoria declining, with labor shortages already severe as young people make the purchases neces-
Society luncheon, richard Hokenson offered in many areas . Hokenson attributed the grow- sary to set up their first homes, and a reduction
several bold predictions that challenge widely ing use of robots in Japan – which already in this segment of the population does not
held views . Founder of Hokenson & Company, has 40% of the world’s robots – to the lack of bode well for demand or the businesses
a new Jersey consulting firm, Hokenson was labor and a reluctance to open the door to that hope to meet this demand . Hokenson
previously chief economist at donaldson, immigrant workers . commented, though, that “despite this
Lufkin & Jenrette (dLJ), where he pioneered incredible predictability, it takes every market
How do countries prepare for “retirement”?
the application of demographics to economic by surprise .”
Hokenson’s answer: Like individuals, they
and financial market forecasting . save, in a country’s case by building up the significant exception among developed
Hokenson began by stating that the world foreign reserves . He feels that China is not countries is the United States with a rela-
population will never reach 8 billion people . prepared, however, estimating that for this tively high fertility rate (about 2 .0 children
He referred to a global phenomenon he purpose the country will need reserves of 5 per woman of child-bearing age) . Hokenson
called the race to zero population growth, to 10 trillion U .S . dollars (compared to current observed that the number of U .S . marriages is
and attributed it to a combina- rising, and the number of divorces
tion of government policies to
“Encouraging higher U.S. savings and increased is falling, and thatbuy homes .
are more likely to
limit family size and changes in
lifestyles . His warning was that Asian consumption will be a recipe for disaster” these demographic factors will
world population is now growing support consumer spending in
too slowly and aging too quickly to support reserves of roughly 2 trillion U .S . dollars), and the U .S ., and Hokenson believes that given
healthy economic growth . pointed out that a big difference between the importance of household formation, the
China and Japan is that Japan managed key to resolving the current crisis is to “get
Among large countries, the two most rapidly
to become rich before it got old, while the housing right” .
aging populations are in China and Japan .
opposite is true for China . Under these responding to questions, Hokenson said that
Both countries experienced a similar period
circumstances, and given that the U .S . popu- the synchronized economic growth of the 6
of economic take-off, China’s coming about
lation is not aging as quickly as that of either years prior to the current global downturn is
three decades after Japan’s, during which
China or Japan, Hokenson’s controversial view unlikely to be seen again in the foreseeable
they rapidly became highly competitive play-
is that policies aimed at encouraging higher future . He also expressed doubt that current
ers in the world economy . Hokenson pointed
U .S . savings and increased Asian consumption efforts by governments to stimulate the
out that aging populations are now putting
will be a recipe for disaster . world economy by injecting massive amounts
these successes at risk .
In a similarly controversial vein, Hokenson of funds would be sufficient, as these are
even if China was to reverse its one child
predicts that fewer people than expected dwarfed by the amount of private wealth
policy, Hokenson argued that little would
means global deflation is more probable sitting on the sidelines .
change in its population growth given the
than inflation as demand shrinks . Comparing In summary, richard Hokenson’s outlook is
choices already made by families and the
long-term treasury yields to the smoothed that global population growth will be too low
current population structure . the aging of
growth of current-dollar U .S . GdP, and then to maintain the demand needed to prevent
China is a process that has lasted for a long
the growth of the U .S . labour force to current- severe consequences, such as deflation and
time, and Hokenson noted that Mao tse tung
dollar GdP, he pointed out the similarity in the chronically low GdP growth, and this will
refused to acknowledge the predictable con-
paths they follow . Since the future labor force have critical implications for investors . Other
sequences of this process when imposing his
can be predicted from today’s population experts clearly think otherwise . they see
views concerning family planning . Hokenson
structure (taking into account legal and illegal slower population growth as a positive trend,
said that too many people think of China as a
immigration), he concluded that the predicted as it will limit overuse of scarce resources,
vast reservoir of low-cost workers, when the
low labour force growth will lead to low GdP reduce activities contributing to global warm-
demographic reality is quite different .
growth . Hokenson admitted, though, that it is ing, and enable countries to cope better with
Hokenson believes that China will need much unusual to use current-dollar GdP rather than
the needs of their citizens . time will tell .
higher birth rates to prepare for the retirement
CFA Victoria 2009 Inaugural
Financial Market Forecast dinner
IS nOw tHe tIMe tO ABAndOn ALL HOPe best investments for the long run, noting that Perhaps fearing that his audience might
or is it the buying opportunity of a lifetime? total returns relative to 10-year bonds were think his outlook ambivalent, Mr . Barnes then
Always eager to help resolve an investing now back to where they were in 1965, and explained that his feelings about the current
dilemma, CFA Victoria broke new ground in that from as far back as 1872 U .S . bonds had investment situation were akin to those of a
2009 with its Inaugural Financial Market Fore- performed as well as U .S . stocks . soldier fighting in the trenches of the Great
cast dinner in January . Guests were treated to war who had just seen his friend take a bullet
the golden era for stocks was the 1950s,
an abundance of thought provoking and bold in his face . He felt a strong incentive to just
when stocks were “dirt-cheap” coming out
commentary from a slate of notable speakers keep his head down as best he could .
of world war II with price-to-earnings (P/e)
sharing their thoughts on the dreadful events ratios around 6 and lots of pent-up consumer the next speaker, Yoram Bauman of the
of 2008 and providing a glimpse at what lies demand . Mr . Barnes pointed out that many University of washington, the world’s only
ahead . Approximately 150 guests filled the stand-up economist/comedian, provided a
Grand Ballroom of the delta Ocean Pointe more light-hearted perspective on what’s
resort, enjoying what promises to continue “I cannot recall any time so much going on in the markets . His tongue-in-cheek
as a premier event for Victoria’s financial and economic data looked so bad” assessment of the current economic situa-
investment community in coming years . tion is that the U .S . economy is like a tired
Following opening remarks, the evening’s people thought the current market cheap hamster: Mr . Bauman thinks the economy
presentations began with a special address by at a P/e of 15, but he personally would not just needs some rest, but policy-makers want
Martin Barnes, managing editor of the Bank consider that a bargain in the midst of a to feed it crystal-methamphetamine . His
Credit Analyst, who spoke with his usual dry recession . nor did he consider bonds particu- economic prognosis is that in two years time,
Scottish wit . Mr . Barnes last addressed CFA larly attractive given the likely medium-term “we’re going to have one ugly hamster .”
Victoria at a luncheon in november, 2006, and inflationary impact of the huge amounts of Martin Murenbeeld, president and chief
a few weeks afterwards in an interview with monetary stimulus being applied . He allowed economist of dundee wealth economics, was
Barron’s magazine he likened the investment that equities could do better, but it will not the first forecast panelist to speak, and his
environment at that time to the eponymous be like the 1950s since the earnings outlook is theme was The Great Depression of 2009 . He
town in the movie Pleasantville, “…where not great, and, in fact, real earnings have not began by stating that ‘greedy bankers’ are not
everything appears normal and orderly and grown since the 1960s . the problem – there have always been greedy
very calm, but under the surface it’s very Mr . Barnes was decidedly pessimistic in his bankers, especially when there is a lot of
oppressed and unnatural .” He felt the markets outlook, saying that “I cannot recall any time money around . the real problem, as he sees
were “certainly not in a state of equilibrium so much economic data looked so bad .” it, is that the world has suffered from serious
here in terms of financial imbalances . But I referring to a spike in the bank loans to GdP imbalances, such as the U .S . current account
don’t see the catalyst for change yet .” two ratio, he commented “I find it very hard to be deficit, for many years, and some countries,
years later, with the catalyst revealed and optimistic about the economic outlook or the notably China, manipulate their currencies
market orderliness a faint memory of happier earnings outlook .” Furthermore, he predicted according to a mercantilist model of eco-
days, Mr . Barnes looked at the current invest- eventual nationalization of the U .S . banking nomic growth .
ment environment and what he could see system . despite positive considerations –
happening over the coming year . such as the fall in P/e ratios, extraordinarily
Mr . Barnes began his presentation, A Historical stimulative monetary conditions, equities Forecast Dinner panelist Tony Gage listens at-
Perspective on the Equity Market, by noting dropping to 35% of U .S . household discre- tentively to the analysis and outlook provided by
that during the past year “economists and tionary investments, and the fact that there is fellow panelist Martin Murenbeeld.
financial analysts haven’t covered themselves a mountain of cash on the sidelines earning
with glory .” He then examined the belief of “squat” – Mr . Barnes said his bias was to be
many investors that stocks were invariably the cautious and on the sidelines .
CFA Victoria 2009 Inaugural Financial Market Forecast Dinner — Audience Predictions
Crude Oil Gold CAd/USd 10-Year S&P/tSX
(US$ Per (US$ Per exchange Gov’t Composite
Barrel) Ounce) rate Bond Yield Index
Mean Of All respondents 63 .19 947 .58 1 .15 2 .97% 9,493
Mean Of Lowest 20% 33 .30 682 .96 0 .99 1 .99% 7,926
Mean Of Highest 20% 106 .20 1290 .81 1 .31 4 .15% 11,138
the foreign exchange reserves of the larg- expected the euro to drop by another 3 to he considered the investment environment
est holders (e .g ., China, Japan, russia) now 4 cents against the U .S . dollar . Interestingly, bearish and expected Bank of Canada cuts of
exceed five trillion U .S . dollars, and Mr . he said that nobody was talking any longer another 100 basis points .
Murenbeeld pointed out that this money has about foreign reserve diversification away Making his predictions, Mr . Frey confessed
been recycled through lending in the U .S . from the U .S . dollar . that “never has it been more difficult to put
and other developed countries . He thinks For the Canadian dollar, Mr . Frey said the my name on a forecast .”
this could lead to a crisis much like the Latin negative factors were the ongoing correction
America crisis of the 1980s caused by a similar the final panelist was tony Gage, director of
in commodity prices and some pressure due PSP Investments and Sky Investment Counsel,
recycling of petro-dollars in the 1970s . He to political risk, presumably referring to the
noted that easy credit had led to rising house and former Chair of the Board of Phillips,
uncertainties of minority government . On Hager and north Investment Management .
prices around the world in countries like the positive side was the fact that Canada’s
Canada, Spain, France and the U .k ., not only current account was in the black and the
in the United States . fiscal environment was favorable . In contrast
Continued on page 8.
describing the stages of a depressionary to six months earlier, he said, employment
spiral, Mr . Murenbeeld noted that we are and domestic demand were sagging . Overall,
well into the process . His solutions to stop
the downward spiral are to massively boost
demand to soak up excess supply (i .e ., the
keynesian prescription), monetary easing A Perspective on
to arrest bank failures and counter credit
contraction, and currency devaluation,
China’s Banking System and Exchange Rate Policy
particularly against Asian currencies .
reflationary policies are generally very good
A PresentAtIon by: Steven Sitao Xu
Director, Advisory Services China, Economist Intelligence Unit
for gold; conversely, deflation due to reces-
sion could hold gold back . On balance, Mr .
Murenbeeld expected reflation to win out . May 27, 2009
next up was Mark Frey, Vice President, CFA Victoria invites you to a special the Industrial and Commercial bank
Foreign exchange trading, of Custom House, presentation and evening at the Art Gal- of China (Asia), where he was respon-
who discussed the current themes dominat- lery of Greater Victoria. our featured sible for macroeconomic and market
ing the foreign exchange markets . He began speaker, Steven Sitao Xu, will address research, while also helping to develop
by saying that prices were no longer driven an issue of great economic and financial treasury and renminbi products, for the
by fundamentals, but by a market transfixed impact: the path that China will follow overseas flagship company of China’s
by risk aversion . Although hard-asset defla- with regard to its banking system and largest bank.
tion still supported the U .S . dollar, Mr . Frey exchange rate policy. Guests will have an Steven currently writes a column for
expected the dollar to lose its shine once opportunity to socialize at a reception the economist Intelligence Unit’s
fundamentals were again of more conse- before the presentation and afterwards Business China and Caijing, a leading
quence . However, he warned that traders enjoy a curator’s tour of the Gallery’s Chinese business publication. He can
were pricing in a second round of risk current exhibit, Edo, Arts of Japan’s Last often be seen on BBC, CNBC, CNN
aversion, and investors were flooding into Shogun Age. and Bloomberg TV as a commentator
U .S . treasury bonds as a safe haven .
steven leads the economist Intelligence on Asian economic affairs.
Mr . Frey said that for the U .S . housing slump Unit’s advisory services in China and Reception: 5:00pm
to bottom out, there would have to be a acts as The Economist Group’s chief rep- Presentation: 6:00pm
recovery in employment, but this was unlikely resentative in the country. He chairs the Curator Tour of Edo, Arts of Japan’s
if extreme risk aversion continued to prevail . economist Intelligence Unit’s Corporate Last Shogun Age: 7:30pm
On the positive side, the trade balance was Network meetings in Beijing and often
moving in the right direction, largely because speaks at major conferences and forums The Mansion,
of lower oil prices . both within China and abroad. art Gallery of Greater Victoria
1040 Moss Street, Victoria
turning to the euro area, Mr . Frey commented In addition, steven is frequently called
that it had also been infected by the global upon to advise multinational compa- Members: $30 | Non-Members: $40
epidemic, and the european Central Bank nies seeking to understand and navigate to reserve or request more information,
had been slow to recognize the softening China’s macroeconomic and industry please e-mail email@example.com with
of the economic picture . However, the eCB shifts. Before joining The Economist “Art Gallery of Victoria Presentation” in
had just cut its base rate by 50 basis points Group, he was head of economics at the subject line.
and he thought there was more to come . He
6 Newsletter rePOrt FrOM tHe CHAIr
rob Bennett, CFA
CFA VICtOrIA enGAGeS In SeVerAL ACtIVItIeS aimed at helping those Practice exam
preparing for a career as an investment professional to recognize the value A practice CFA exam is scheduled for May
2, 2009, likely to be held at the University of
of the CFA Charter . Here, I would like to explain what we are currently doing
Victoria . the practice exam is prepared for
in this area . the Boston Society of Security Analysts, and
it uses the same format as the exam given by
Investment research Challenge new York to compete in the Americas com- the CFA Institute at the beginning of June .
petition at the end of March . From there, the CFA candidates wishing to test their exam
Five University of Victoria students recently
winning team will go to London, england, for preparedness in a setting that replicates
participated as a team in the CFA Institute’s
the global competition . At each level, teams what they will experience in the June exam
Investment research Challenge, placing third
will use their report and presentation from are encouraged to register . registration
in the western Canada area competition . this
the local area competition . costs $60, and registration forms and further
competition included teams from five other
western Canada universities: the University On behalf of CFA Victoria, I congratulate the information are available online at the CFA
of regina, University of Alberta, University of University of Victoria team on their perfor- Victoria website (http://www .cfavictoria .com/
Calgary, University of British Columbia, and mance, and thank Professor downey and tony default .aspx) .
Simon Fraser University . Gage for their generous support and guid- study Groups
ance . As well, I would like to thank CFA Victoria
the six western Canada teams were each two study groups, one each for level I and II
members Jill Sing and Jeff Constantinescu for
sponsored by their local CFA society, with CFA candidates, are being formed . Candidates
their support of the research Challenge by
Victoria sponsoring the University of Victoria interested in participating in a study group
volunteering to be members of the team that
team . should send their name to rebennett@shaw .
graded all six of the reports from the western
the objective of the competition was to pro- Canada teams . ca (attn . education Chair, rob Bennett), and
duce the best investment research report and we will share the names and email contact
scholarship Program information of those who wish to participate
presentation on a publicly traded company .
All team members had to be students and CFA Victoria gave scholarships for the June in a study group with other similarly inter-
none could be a CFA Charterholder . 2009 CFA exam to eight candidates from the ested candidates .
Victoria area . the scholarship covers the University Outreach
the University of Victoria team consisted of
enrolment fee, if applicable, and all but
todd McSween, Atish Gadyar, Peter Hunnisett, CFA Victoria gave presentations to University
US$220 of the recipient’s exam registration
Bart Johnson and reia Ly . the team was of Victoria business students in October, 2008,
fee, making the scholarship worth at least
supported by Professor Angela downey, and to University of Victoria business and eco-
US$380, or up to US$1,175 .
as faculty advisor, and tony Gage, as the nomics students in mid-March, 2009 . Much
industry mentor . [See this issue’s recap of the CFA exam candidates were asked to submit of the presentation material was prepared by
Forecast Dinner for more on Mr. Gage.] their scholarship applications in december . the CFA Institute, and the presentations were
each applicant had to explain why the Charter mainly about the CFA Program, the role and
each western Canada team prepared a
was of value, present their case for financial objectives of the CFA Institute, and the value
research report on empire Company which
need, and explain how the CFA standard of a CFA Charter .
had to be submitted by the end of January,
of conduct applies to their workplace .
2009 . the teams then traveled to Calgary to CFA Victoria Board member Jeff Hunter joined
Applicants were evaluated based on their
make their presentations on February 28 . me in giving the October presentation, which
Similar competitions took place worldwide was attended by about 20 students . For the
Candidate reception March presentation, Jeff and I were joined by
with overall sponsorship and funding pro-
vided by the CFA Institute . the global com- CFA Victoria hosted a candidate reception on Board member Philippe Monier, and this pre-
petition has three levels: local (e .g ., western January 15, 2009, prior to the Forecast din- sentation was also attended by 20 students .
Canada), regional and global . the winning ner . the reception was co-hosted by Stalla, a In the future, we plan to make additional
team from each competition at the first two company that provides exam review material presentations of this nature at the University
levels goes on to compete at the next level . to CFA exam candidates . twenty-eight CFA of Victoria and other educational institutions
candidates and potential candidates attend- in the Victoria region .
the University of Alberta team, winner of the
ed the reception and Stalla provided prizes
western Canada competition, will go on to
that included scholarships and invitations to
the Forecast dinner .
Upcoming CFA Victoria Events
Optimizing relationships with Clients surviving economic lassitude behind investor behavior is extremely impor-
of wealth Dr. rICHArD GlICkMAN tant when applying these tools .
lIsA GrAY, FOUNDer In this presentation, John nofsinger will delve
dr . Glickman is co-founder and past CeO of
Graymatter Strategies LLC into the psychology affecting investments .
two public healthcare/biotech companies .
Richmond, Virginia He will describe how investors behave, why
In his presentation, he will talk about insights
they behave that way, how such behavior
CFA Victoria launches its Private Wealth gained during his 25 years in this sector,
hurts investors’ wealth and what they can do
Series with a special workshop, reception and about his experiences, strategies, and
about it . topics include overconfidence, fear
and dinner featuring Lisa Gray of Graymat- challenges during the founding, growing,
of regret and seeking pride, mental account-
ter Strategies LLC. financing and selling of two Victoria-based
ing, mood and investing, and self control and
public companies . From what he has learned
Ms . Gray consults extensively with global decision making .
over the years, dr . Glickman will provide his
families and their advisors on the direct influ-
perspective on how the current business Mr . nofsinger, is a leading authority on
ence of generational perspectives, family dy-
climate is different and how this is a chal- behavioral finance and a frequent speaker
namics, and governance on wealth manage-
lenge to a company’s growth and survival . at investment management and academic
ment decisions .
conferences . He often is quoted or appears
Ms . Gray will discuss the true definition of dr . Glickman was a co-founder of Aspreva
in the financial media, including The Wall
family wealth, and how and why client needs Pharmaceuticals and served as Chairman and
Street Journal, Financial Times, Fortune, Busi-
have changed . She will share with us what CeO until 2007 . Prior to that, he was co-found-
ness Week, Money Magazine, Washington Post,
she believes clients of wealth wish from their er and CeO of StressGen Biotechnologies Cor-
Bloomberg and CNBC .
advisors, how best to meet their expectations poration . dr . Glickman was also founder of
Ontario Molecular diagnostics, a diagnostic Mr . nofsinger has authored (or coauthored)
and what actions to take during unsettling
facility that evolved into one of the largest seven books which have been translated into
molecular diagnostic laboratories in Canada, six languages . He has also published more
After the workshop, a reception and dinner and co-founder of Probtec Corporation, a than 30 articles in scholarly and practitio-
will be held for those wishing to participate rational drug design and molecular genetics ner journals, and his academic research has
in a candid discussion on optimizing relation- firm, where he established and introduced won many awards . In addition, he has done
ships with clients of wealth, focusing on how the first licensed dnA-based forensic and research for private investment firms, policy
advisors can best serve clients of different paternity testing services in Canada . think-tanks, the new York Stock exchange,
generations . this special dinner, hosted by and the CFA Institute .
CFA Victoria in the Union Club’s Palm Court dr . Glickman’s roles on numerous boards
dining room, will include a case study and have included Chairman of Life Sciences B .C . April 30, 2009
discussion facilitated by Ms . Gray . and director of the Canadian Genetic disease 12:00pm – 1:30pm
network, a Canadian Centre of excellence . He Begbie Room, The Union Club of BC
Ms . Gray has 21 years experience in wealth is currently a member of the British Columbia ___________________________________
management and is the founder of Gray- Innovation Council and Lead director for Perspective on China’s Banking system
matter Strategies LLC . of richmond, Virginia . Cardiome Pharmaceuticals Corporation . and exchange rate Policy
Based on her experience working with cli-
ents of wealth, she developed the diagnostic dr . Glickman has received the ernst & Young steVeN sItAO XU
wealth Optimization Consulting™ model of entrepreneur of the Year 2004 Award for the Director, Advisory Services China
service presented in her book, The New Fam- Pacific region Life Sciences Group and both Economist Intelligence Unit
ily Office: Innovative Strategies for Consulting to Canada’s and British Columbia’s top 40 under
Join us for a special presentation and evening
the Affluent (euromoney Books, 2004) . 40 Award for entrepreneurs .
at the Art Gallery of Greater Victoria . Our fea-
A sought-after speaker and educator, Ms . April 27, 2009 tured speaker, Steven Sitao Xu, will address a
Gray is a regular contributor to the Journal of 12:00pm – 1:30pm particularly topical issue of great economic
Wealth Management and Trusts & Estates mag- Begbie Room, The Union Club of BC and financial impact: the path that China will
___________________________________ follow with regard to its banking system and
azine . Her new book, Generational Wealth
Management: A Guide for Fostering Global the Psychology of Investing exchange rate policy .
Family Wealth, will soon be published by JOHN NOFsINGer, PhD May 27, 2009
euromoney Books . Reception: 5:00pm
March 31, 2009 University of Washington Presentation: 6:00pm
Afternoon Session: 3:00pm-5:00pm Lang Fellow, Department of Finance Curator Tour of Edo, Arts of Japan’s Last
Evening Session: 6:00pm-8:30pm Washington State University Shogun Age: 7:30pm
Begbie Room, The Union Club of BC The Mansion,
traditional finance provides many tools with Art Gallery of Greater Victoria
which investors optimize expected return 1040 Moss Street, Victoria
and risk, but understanding the motivations
See page 5 for full event details .
CFA Victoria Mission
CFA Victoria promotes the highest standards of integrity, professionalism
and ethical behaviour within the investment industry, and encourages
2008 / 2009
professional development through the CFA Program . we facilitate the open
exchange of information and opinions between members of Victoria’s Leadership
investment community .
Andrew Shortreid, CFA
“2009 Forecast Dinner” continued from page 5.
Jeffrey Hunter, CFA
displaying an admirable sense of full dis- the silver lining for Mr . Gage was that “lenders
Carolyn thoms, CFA
closure, Mr . Gage advised the audience that are finally back in the driver’s seat” because
this was his sixth time speaking at a forecast once again “liquidity has value .”
trent karl Moore, CFA
dinner and that he had been wrong on all five turning to the outlook for equities, Mr . Gage
previous occasions . pointed out that for the first time since 1958 Board of directors
Looking back at 2008, Mr . Gage said the is- the P/e yield was above the bond yield . In & Committee Chairs
sue was credit as investors felt an extremely 2009, though, he expected stocks to provide a MeMBersHIP
strong desire to delever their positions and 3 .5% dividend yield with no price appreciation . Jeff Hamel, CFA
gain liquidity . He noted that the return on In the longer term, he foresaw a sea change in eDUCAtION
federal government bonds in 2008 was about investor’s attitudes, with their focus moving rob Bennett, CFA
15%, while that on corporate bonds was away from total return to sustainable return teCHNOlOGY
minus 1% . and more stringent balance sheet analysis . Yan Lyesin, CFA
Mr . Gage said the credit bubble was caused In all, the dinner was a wonderful evening PUBlIC AwAreNess
by bankers having to find ways to give money and a milestone in CFA Victoria’s ongoing Jeffrey Good, CFA
to consumers, and that it is a mistake to efforts to encourage the exchange of ideas DIreCtOrs At lArGe
blame China . to illustrate the severity of the and opinions within the investment commu- Philippe Monier, CFA
bubble’s bursting, he described the explo- nity . we hope to see everybody again at next Jill M . Sing, CFA
sion in credit spreads as a 16 .6 sigma event . year’s dinner to compare notes on how well eDItOr-IN-CHIeF
Quoting James Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest our predictions shape up against the reality Gord walker, CFA
Rate Observer, Mr . Gage said this was not just of 2009 .
a black swan: it was a black swan with two
heads and a propeller!
A Call for Volunteers
CFA Victoria depends on
Member report volunteers to enable all of our
activities and initiatives. you can
Members on the Move would you like to be included help by applying your time and
skills in any number of ways.
Jill M. Sing, CA, CFA, CIM, CFP in Members on the Move?
It’s a great way to meet others
(formerly of CA firm, Hayes Stewart Little It’s important to keep your contact in the local financial community
& Company) information up to date and let others know and show off your talent.
To where they can reach you .
Interested? of course you are!
Senior Vice President Please let us know if you’re changing jobs or Contact Andrew Shortreid at
eFG wealth Management (Canada) Limited making any other move . AShortreid@barlowcp.com for
jill .sing@efgcanada .com Send your information to Gordon .walker@ more information.
www .efgcanada .com rBC .com with “Members on the Move” in the
subject line .