Seasonality: The PowerPoint

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Seasonality: The PowerPoint Powered By Docstoc
					Seasonality: The PowerPoint

        Michael Glantz
       January 26, 2006
“It is difficult to find any aspect of rural
  life in the tropical third world which is
  not touched by seasonality”

“Does seasonality make some people
 poor and keep them poor”?

(Chambers, 1981, p.xvi; p. 2, respectively)
Examples of seasonality
            Seasonality definitions
•   The changing availability of resources according to the different
    seasons of the year

•   Periodic fluctuations in the climate related to seasons of the year e.g.
    wet winters, drier summers

•   Many time series display seasonality. By seasonality, we mean
    periodic fluctuations.
•   Seasons are defined differently in different environments and by
    different societies.

•   Of or dependent on a particular season

•   Cyclicality in a business or the economy from one season to the next.

•   Changes in business, employment or buying patterns which occur
    predictably at given times of the year.
  Why focus on Seasonality?
• Most people, socio-economic sectors and
  societies are more dependent on the
  expected flow of the seasons than they
• For a couple of billion people it is a life-
  death concern
• For many others it may be a health or an
  economic concern
    Seasonality and climate
• Various parts of the globe are
  affected by seasonal hazards
    •   Droughts
    •   Floods
    •   Fires
    •   Tropical storms
    •   Growing seasons, harvests, rainy seasons,
        summertime vacations, ski and other sports
        seasons, and the like
        Seasonality science
• Each location on the globe has a marked
• Human activities are attuned to that flow of
  the seasons
     • More accurately, they’re attuned to the expected
       flow of the seasons: hot, cold; wet, dry; calm,
       stormy, etc.
• Anything that disrupts that flow, disrupts
  human activities.
       Aspects of seasonality
•   Precipitation
•   Temperature
•   Solar radiation
•   Cloudiness
•   Relative humidity
•   Wind speed and direction
•   Normal length & flow of the seasons
       • 1816: the year without a summer
Seasonality and extreme events
• There are seasons for various kinds of
  climate- and weather-related events
• A hurricane, typhoon, cyclone season
• Fire season
• Growing season
• Hot, cold; wet, dry seasons
• Rainy season
• Hunger season
• Snowmelt season
• Etc.
    People and the seasons
• People, societies, and economies are attuned
  to the normal (expected, not actual) flow of
  the seasons
• Most people on the globe depend on the
  normal flow of the seasons for their food
• Industrialized countries have $$$ to rebuild
  and compensate for superstorm damages;
  poorer countries are forced to live with the
  damage and for the most part, cope on their
         High impact events
      are a worldwide problem
• Every part of the globe is affected by….
  – a high impact weather event
  – a climate anomaly
  – Death, destruction and misery from either

• Frequencies and impacts vary
  – location to location
  – For same type event at different times

• Impacts are regional/local
  – Second-order effects are national
 International Red Cross predicts
   more global 'Super Disasters'

• Disaster Losses on the Rise -- May 21, 1999
• New Studies Indicate Earth's Future is Looking
  Hotter, Less Stable -- March 3, 1999
• Intensity of Hurricane Seasons Expected to
  Worsen in Coming Years -- August 10, 1998
              Seasonal impacts
•   Latitude specific
•   Locale specific
•   Human activity specific
•   Ecological process specific
       •   Vector borne diseases
       •   Floods, droughts, fires, epidemics
       •   Hunger season
       •   Rangelands productivity
       •   Tourism
Things people do to override the influences of
       the natural flow of the seasons

•   Irrigation
•   Refrigeration, heating
•   Air conditioning
•   Greenhouses
•   Export & import agricultural produce
•   Feeding pens
•   Voluntary migration
             Law & Policy
• Restriction on burning wood in winter
• Restrictions on fishing certain species
• Restrictions on water withdrawals for
  irrigation purposes
• Seasonal water use restrictions
• Restrictions on hunting season
    Seasonality and Politics
• E.g., transboundary water issues

• Conflict between Kyrgyzstan & Uzbekistan
     • Kyrgyzstan wants to release water downstream in the
       winter to generate heat
     • Uzbekistan wants the water released in the spring and
       summer for use in irrigation
• Conflict between Spain and Portugal
     • Arid Spain built reservoirs on rivers flowing to the sea
       across Portugal
     • Downstream Portuguese farmers received streamflow
       only after Spanish reservoirs released it, altering by
       some weeks the farming practices in Portugal
            Seasonal economics
                          (various sources on Google)

•   Seasonality has been a major research area in economics for several
•   seasonality factors are always something we have to take into account
•   economic shocks for peasants in 1983 were seasonal climatic shocks
•   The nature of seasonality in Spanish tourism time series
•   Coping with Seasonality and Drought will interest both students and
    professionals in anthropology, development economics, gender studies,
    social and economic change.
•   Prevalence, seasonality and economic importance of disease conditions
    in Nigeria cattle population
•   Seasonality of Asthma at Local Hospitals
•   Conference on Seasonality in Economic and Financial Variables
•   Improved Seasonality of Flows through Irrigation Demand
    Management and System HarmonisationTM
•   seasonality as an essential concept in planning, implementing, monitoring
    and evaluating land-based rural development programmes
    Seasonal ethics & equity
• The hunger season
• Seasonal health problems
     • malaria
     • dengue
     • cholera outbreaks
• Upstream vs downstream water needs

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