GARIN HART YANG RESEARCH GROUP
Attitudes Among Voters In Key CDs
Key findings from surveys among voters in NC 11th, VA 5th, IN 9th August/September 2009
Feelings Toward Selected Public Figures: North Carolina 11th CD
Positive feelings Negative feelings
51% 20% 42% 43% 40% 38% 29% 44% 26% 28%
Representative Heath Shuler President Barack Obama Sarah Palin Rush Limbaugh Senator Kay Hagan Senator Richard Burr
24% 15%
Q.2a
Attitudes Among Voters in Key CDs – August/September 2009
GARINHARTYANG
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Feelings Toward Selected Public Figures: Virginia 5th CD
Positive feelings Negative feelings
54% 17% 49% 37% 42% 24% 36% 40% 35% 19%
Senator Mark Warner President Barack Obama Congressman Tom Perriello Sarah Palin Senator Jim Webb Rush Limbaugh
21% 45%
Q.2a
3
Attitudes Among Voters in Key CDs – August/September 2009
GARINHARTYANG
Feelings Toward Selected Public Figures: Indiana 9th CD
Positive feelings Negative feelings
51% 16% 47% 12% 45% 41% 44% 25% 35% 41%
Senator Evan Bayh Senator Richard Lugar President Barack Obama Congressman Baron Hill Sarah Palin Rush Limbaugh
26% 48%
Q.2a
4
Attitudes Among Voters in Key CDs – August/September 2009
GARINHARTYANG
Feelings Toward Selected Groups
Positive feelings Negative feelings
NC 11th CD
Environmental groups
VA 5th CD
Environmental groups
IN 9th CD
Environmental groups
52% 23%
Coal companies 29% 28% Chamber of Commerce 25%
53% 19%
Coal companies 30% 15% Chamber of Commerce 23%
53% 23%
Coal companies
32% 20%
Chamber of Commerce 25%
19%
Oil companies 17%
14%
Oil companies 22%
18%
Oil companies 17%
51%
41%
55%
Q.2b
Attitudes Among Voters in Key CDs – August/September 2009
GARINHARTYANG
5
Congressman’s Job Approval Rating
Approve Disapprove Not sure
Heath Shuler NC 11th CD
27% 34%
Tom Perriello VA 5th CD
Baron Hill IN 9th CD
32% 43% 40%
49%
24%
DisApprove approve Democrats Independents Republicans 56% 47% 46% 20% 25% 29%
23%
DisApprove approve Democrats Independents Republicans 72% 35% 19% 5% 27% 38%
28%
DisApprove approve Democrats Independents Republicans 60% 41% 18% 10% 29% 49%
Q.3
Attitudes Among Voters in Key CDs – August/September 2009
GARINHARTYANG
6
Familiarity With Cap And Trade Legislation
How much have you heard about this legislation?
Heard a lot Heard some Heard just a little Heard nothing at all
55%
“The U.S. House of Representatives passed energy reform legislation entitled the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which is also known as the cap-andtrade bill. This legislation requires significant reductions in carbon emissions and promotes the development and use of alternative and renewable energy sources.”
52% 44% 47%
50%
49%
28% 13% 19% 20% 19% 15%
NC 11th CD
Attitudes Among Voters in Key CDs – August/September 2009
VA 5th CD
GARINHARTYANG
IN 9th CD
Q.6
7
Support For Energy Reform Legislation
Do you favor or oppose the energy reform legislation to require significant reductions in carbon emissions and to promote the development and use of alternative and renewable energy resources?
Strongly favor Somewhat favor Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Not sure
NC 11th CD
22%
29% OPPOSE 55% FAVOR
VA 5th CD
28% 8% 17%
25% OPPOSE
IN 9th CD
18% 18%
30% OPPOSE
22%
45% FAVOR
42% FAVOR
12% 24%
7% 16%
23% 27% 33% 25%
Q.7
Attitudes Among Voters in Key CDs – August/September 2009
GARINHARTYANG
8
Support For Energy Reform Legislation, Among Key Subgroups
Do you favor or oppose the energy reform legislation to require significant reductions in carbon emissions and to promote the development and use of alternative and renewable energy resources? NC 11th CD Favor Oppose Liberals Moderates Conservatives 81% 65% 38% 7% 19% 45% VA 5th CD Favor Oppose 74% 38% 32% 3% 22% 37% IN 9th CD Favor Oppose 71% 49% 32% 4% 21% 46%
Q.7
Attitudes Among Voters in Key CDs – August/September 2009
GARINHARTYANG
9
Do you know how your congressman voted on the energy reform bill?
Voted for it Voted against it Not sure
73%
74%
78%
24%
25%
21%
3%
1%
1%
Heath Shuler/NC 11th
Tom Perriello/VA 5th
Baron Hill/IN 9th
GARINHARTYANG
Q.8a
10
Attitudes Among Voters in Key CDs – August/September 2009
Effect Of Congressman’s Vote For Energy Reform Bill On Voters’ Feelings
Your congressman voted for the energy reform legislation: does that make you more favorable or less favorable toward him?
More favorable toward him Less favorable toward him Makes little difference in my feelings
34% 23%
38% 33% 20%
39%
38% 23%
36%
Heath Shuler/NC 11th
Tom Perriello/VA 5th
Baron Hill/IN 9th
GARINHARTYANG
Q.8b
11
Attitudes Among Voters in Key CDs – August/September 2009
Effect Of Congressman’s Vote On Feelings, Among Key Subgroups
Your congressman voted for the energy reform legislation: does that make you more favorable or less favorable toward him?
Heath Shuler NC 11th CD Tom Perriello VA 5th CD Baron Hill IN 9th CD
More Less More Less More Less favorable favorable favorable favorable favorable favorable Liberals Moderates Conservatives 58% 42% 18% 1% 15% 37% 62% 35% 21% 4% 11% 32% 68% 44% 23% 1% 14% 39%
Q.8b
Attitudes Among Voters in Key CDs – August/September 2009
GARINHARTYANG
12
Supporters Have More Compelling Message
% saying each is a very convincing message
NC 11th Supporters: Investing in alternative energy will have a positive impact on the American economy, spurring innovation and creating more clean energy jobs Opponents: This bill is really just a complicated, 1,200-page bill that creates more government bureaucracy and raises gasoline prices and electricity costs on everyone. A new energy tax makes no sense when America is trying to get out of a recession.
Attitudes Among Voters in Key CDs – August/September 2009
VA 5th 29%
IN 9th 30%
32%
28%
27%
28%
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