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California
Postsecondary
Education
Commission
(CPED) TO COMPETE IN A FLAT
WORLD
Sept. 26, 2007
Sacramento, CA California Higher
Education’s Advantages,
David Longanecker Lost Advantages, and
Executive Director
Western Interstate Needed Advantages
Commission for Higher
Education (WICHE)
Competing in the Flat World
A high-skill/high-wage economy
Well educated
Indigenous to California
Affordable high quality of life
And evidence of this
A Postsecondary Education system that supports such
an economy, society, and personal life style
So, how does California stack up?
What California has (and needs to
keep)
As A State
A Very Competitive Economy – 3rd on the
State New Economy Index
Wealth – 11th in personal income
Great on ROI to education – 1st in earnings
difference between high-school and college
(BA or AA)
Talent accumulation -- net importer of
highly educated talent.
California Net Migration of Residents Age
22-64 by Level of Education, 2004-05
27,843
Bachelor's Degree 22,625
Graduate/Professional Degree 16,522
-30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000
What California has (and needs to
keep)
Higher Education’s Contribution
Research Excellence
7 of the top 25 ranked Research Universities
(Shanghai Jiao Tong index) in the West –
Stanford (2), UC Berkeley (3), Cal Tech (5),
UCLA (11), UCSD (12), UW (14), UCSF (16)
The Rest
East: 7 (1 quasi-public, 6 privates)
Mid West: 3 (2 publics, one private)
South: 1 (private)
What California has (and needs to
keep)
Higher Education’s Contribution
Human Capital
Leads the nation in adult participation (5.1%
of adults 25-49 enrolled)
Process rather than Product
Prestige
Mission Differentiation
An efficient financing structure
What does that mean – an efficient
financing structure
Funding Per FTE Student (2004)
California WICHE Rank
2 Year Insts $5,599 $6,884 15th
BA/Masters 13,151 12,865 7th
Research/Dr 45,295 32,736 2nd
Share of Student by Sector
2 Years 61% 53% 1st
BA/Masters 22 19 6th
Research/Dr 17 29 15th
What California has (and needs to
keep)
A Reasonably Productive System --
OVERALL
48.3 Alaska
51.9 Kentucky
53.3 Maine
60.2 Arkansas
60.3 West Virginia
63.2 Vermont
Performance Relative to Total Funding per FTE –
Overall Index Scores for State Higher Education
63.3 Nevada
67.0 South Carolina
68.1 Louisiana
69.5 New Jersey
69.8 Georgia
70.3 Idaho
71.0 Wyoming
71.6 Mississippi
71.7 Hawaii
74.3 Texas
74.9 Tennessee
75.4 New Mexico
76.0 Oklahoma
76.8 Oregon
78.3 Ohio
78.5 Alabama
80.5 Michigan
82.2 Indiana
83.2 Pennsylvania
83.9 Florida
84.8 New York
85.0 Montana
85.2 Connecticut
85.5 North Carolina
88.4 South Dakota
88.7 Minnesota
89.3 Missouri
90.7 Delaware
Systems (NCHEMS)
90.9 California
91.2 Kansas
91.7 Illinois
92.2 Nebraska
96.3 Virginia
96.8 Washington
99.5 New Hampshire
100.0 Maryland
100.9 Wisconsin
101.5 Arizona
103.2 North Dakota
104.3 Iowa
106.9 Rhode Island
122.7 Colorado
127.7 Massachusetts
136.3 Utah
120
90
60
30
0
What California had, but lost (and
needs to regain)
As A State
A Competitive Workforce
11
Nevada
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between
Arkansas
Young and Older Adults—Percent of Adults with College Degrees
West Virginia
Louisiana
Mississippi
New Mexico
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Alaska
Tennessee
Alabama
Age 45-64
Texas
Arizona
South Carolina
Idaho
Differential National Performance:
Indiana
Maine
Florida
California
Wyoming
Age 25-34
Oregon
Missouri
Ohio
Georgia
North Carolina
Michigan
Montana
United States
Utah
Hawaii
Delaware
Kansas
Pennsylvania
Washington
Wisconsin
South Dakota
Rhode Island
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census via NCHEMS
Iowa
Virginia
Illinois
Nebraska
Maryland
New Hampshire
Vermont
New Jersey
New York
Colorado
Connecticut
North Dakota
Minnesota
Massachusetts
55%
45%
35%
25%
15%
Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by
Age Group—Leading OECD Countries, the U.S., and
California
Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64
60
53.3
51.6
49.1
47.0
50
45.1
42.3
42.0
41.4
40.7
40.7
40.4
40.2
39.4
39.2
39.0
38.3
36.5
40
36.2
35.7
34.5
34.1
33.5
32.9
32.7
32.3
29.4
28.9
27.3
30
25.2
23.2
21.5
20.0
19.2
16.4
20
15.7
9.7
10
0
Canada Japan Korea Sweden Belgium Ireland Norway U.S. California
International Competitive/Declining Performance:
Percent of Adults with an Associate or Higher
Degree
OECD Countries 25 to 34 45 to 54
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Australia
Germany
Denmark
Greece
Mexico
Poland
Iceland
Ireland
Hungary
Japan
Sweden
Portugal
Turkey
Spain
Norway
Belgium
United States
New Zealand
Luxembourg
Austria
Italy
Finland
Switzerland
Canada
France
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Slovak
Czech Republic
Korea
Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, American Community Survey via NCHEMS
13
What California had, but lost (and
needs to regain)
As A State
A Competitive Workforce
Talent Accumulation
California Net Migration of Residents
Age 22-64 by Level of Education, 2004-
05
Less than High School 27,843
-19,742 High School
-20,168 Some College
-3,795 Associate Degree
Bachelor's Degree 22,625
Graduate/Professional Degree 16,522
Total 23,285
-30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000
What California had, but lost (and
needs to regain)
As A State
A Competitive Workforce
Talent Accumulation
A viable education production function
What does that mean – California has
lost a viable production function?
California U.S. Rank
Grad H.S. on time 70.7% 69.7% 30th
Enter College 30.9% 38.8% 46th
Grad-150% time 16.9% 18.4% 29th
What California had, but lost (and
needs to regain)
As A State
A Competitive Workforce
Talent Accumulation
A viable education production function
The State Resources to Invest
Alabama -10.7
Louisiana -10.5
Mississippi -9.8
Tennessee
Projected State and Local Budget Deficits as a
-9.3
Nevada -9.3
Texas -8.9
Oregon -8.2
Washington -8.0
Missouri -7.4
South Dakota -7.0
South Carolina -7.0
Idaho -6.9
Florida -6.8
North Carolina -6.7
Indiana -6.5
Iowa -6.3
California -6.2
New Mexico -5.9
Utah -5.8
Montana -5.8
United States -5.7
Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2005
Rhode Island -5.7
Alaska -5.7
Pennsylvania -5.6
Illinois
Percent of Revenues, 2013
-5.6
Hawaii -5.3
Georgia -5.2
New York -5.2
Arizona -5.1
Michigan -4.8
Kentucky -4.8
West Virginia -4.8
Colorado -4.4
Minnesota -4.4
Oklahoma -4.3
Nebraska -4.3
Virginia -4.2
Arkansas -4.2
Kansas -3.9
Connecticut -3.8
North Dakota -3.3
Ohio -3.0
Vermont -2.9
Wisconsin -2.8
Massachusetts -2.3
Maryland -2.1
Maine -1.6
New Jersey -1.0
Delaware -1.0
New Hampshire -0.5
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
Public High School Graduates in California, by Race/Ethnicity, 1993-94
to 2004-05 (Actual), 2005-06 to 2021-22 (Projected)
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
19 -94
19 -96
20 -05
20 -11
20 -17
20 -20
19 -95
19 -97
19 -98
19 -99
20 -00
20 -01
20 -02
20 -03
20 -04
20 -06
20 -07
20 -08
20 -09
20 -10
20 -12
20 -13
20 -14
20 -15
20 -16
20 -18
20 -19
20 -21
2
-2
93
95
04
10
16
19
94
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
05
06
07
08
09
11
12
13
14
15
17
18
20
21
19
White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic
Asian/Pacific Islander American Indian/Alaska Native
What California had, but lost (and
needs to regain)
Within Higher Education
An affordable system
How Can That Be – We lead in low fees
and high financial aid
On tuition (06-07)
Community Colleges
US: $2,272
WICHE: $2,237
CA: $690
4-Year Institutions
US: $5,836
WICHE: $4,351
CA: $4,220
On financial aid
U.S.: $446
WICHE: $386
California: $514
But that isn’t that half of it.
How Can It Be So
Cheap Isn’t Always Efficient
Can mean Leaving Money On The Table
Bad News
California Community Colleges leave
substantial federal Pell & Tax Credits unused
Cost of living is a unique California
challenge
What California had, but lost (and
needs to regain)
Within Higher Education
An affordable system
A cost-effective system
Hold it, you just said . . .
48.3 Alaska
51.9 Kentucky
53.3 Maine
60.2 Arkansas
60.3 West Virginia
63.2 Vermont
Performance Relative to Total Funding per FTE –
Overall Index Scores for State Higher Education
63.3 Nevada
67.0 South Carolina
68.1 Louisiana
69.5 New Jersey
69.8 Georgia
70.3 Idaho
71.0 Wyoming
71.6 Mississippi
71.7 Hawaii
74.3 Texas
74.9 Tennessee
75.4 New Mexico
76.0 Oklahoma
76.8 Oregon
78.3 Ohio
78.5 Alabama
80.5 Michigan
82.2 Indiana
83.2 Pennsylvania
83.9 Florida
84.8 New York
85.0 Montana
85.2 Connecticut
85.5 North Carolina
88.4 South Dakota
88.7 Minnesota
89.3 Missouri
90.7 Delaware
Systems (NCHEMS)
90.9 California
91.2 Kansas
91.7 Illinois
92.2 Nebraska
96.3 Virginia
96.8 Washington
99.5 New Hampshire
100.0 Maryland
100.9 Wisconsin
101.5 Arizona
103.2 North Dakota
104.3 Iowa
106.9 Rhode Island
122.7 Colorado
127.7 Massachusetts
136.3 Utah
120
90
60
30
0
Student Pipeline Result, 2002
30
IA PA
ND MA
CT
NH MN
25 WINJ
SD NE
VA IN RI
WY VT
DE ME
Performance
CO OH
MO IL
KS US NY
CA NC
UT MD
20 MT MI
WA KY WV
AZ AR TN
OR
ID
FLOK
MS SC
AL LA
GA
TX
15 HI
AK
NV NM
10
$5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000
Total Funding Per FTE
What California had, but lost (and
needs to regain)
Within Higher Education
An affordable system
A cost-effective system
A strong Community College system
THROUGH PUT Has To Improve
Resource Starved, Given The Mission
Funding Per FTE Student (2004)
CaliforniaWICHERank
2 Year Insts $5,599 $6,884 15th
What California never had (but
really needs)
A true accountability structure
You lack clear goals – what California expects from
higher education
You lack strong metrics – what measures would
demonstrate progress toward those goals
You lack an integrated data system that is needed
to support strong metrics
Nothing contemplated on student learning
Higher Education needs to be an evidence-based
public service
Competing in the Flat World
America led the world economy in the 20th Century
And California led America
Exceptional Higher Education was key
Talent accumulation was also key
Competition is no longer within American; it is global.
Others
Competing successfully on human capital
Preparing to compete on research
OECD prepared to hold us accountable
On evidence, not perception
It’s a new “New World”
