Weekly Trend by jennyyingdi

VIEWS: 6 PAGES: 12

									                                         Weekly Trend
      Long awaited correction underway…                      (21st February-24th February, 2012)


                                                        Market Outlook
India Snapshot

The snoozing bears of the markets finally aroused from their sleep in the passing week and went ahead to run berserk and halt the eight
successive week winning streak for the Indian frontline equity indices. The holiday shortened February series futures and options week
turned out to be a turbulent one for the benchmark indices which were battered in three out of the four session week leading to losses
of over two percentage points. The correction was long overdue as the bourses had not even once since the start of 2012 showed signs
of weakness. The frontline indices only found support around the crucial 5,400 (Nifty) and 17,900 (Sensex) levels as the rate sensitive
Bankex, Realty and Automobile counters along with Capital Goods pocket dragged. Broader markets too got bludgeoned in the week
gone by as they suffered nasty lacerations and underperformed their larger peers by quite a margin. The recent sharp spurt in
international crude oil prices has set alarm bells ringing, stoking nervousness not only among market participants but also the policy
makers. The rally in oil prices would certainly have spiraling effect on the Indian economy as the nation imports more than 70% of the
commodity for domestic requirements, thus re-fuelling the inflationary concerns.


 Index                                Current              Previous         WoW Change (%)                     1 Month H/L
 BSE SENSEX                            17,924               18,289                 -2.00%                     18,523/16,828
 BSE MIDCAP                            6,300                 6,545                 -3.74%                       6,654/5,745
 NSE NIFTY                             5,429                 5,564                 -2.43%                       5,629/5,405
 NIFTY MIDCAP 50                       2,310                 2,424                 -4.71%                       2,453/2049


Global Snapshot

The US markets remained in sanguine mood in the passing week as European officials agreed to another round of aid for Greece,
supported by rounds of good economic reports on domestic front. The Obama administration took aim at so-called corporate tax
havens in a broad proposed overhaul that would lower the tax rate for companies and encourage job creation in the United States.
President Obama unveiled a corporate tax overhaul that promises to cut the top tax bracket from 35 percent to 28 percent - but which
will saddle companies with an added $250 billion in tax levies over the next 10 years by closing loopholes. There were encouraging
reports on the economic front that helped the markets remain firm, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that US home prices
climbed 0.7% in the final month of 2011. The government offered further evidence of an improving labor market, as applications for
jobless claims last week held at a near four-year low. Initial jobless claims were unchanged in the week ended February 18th, according
to a report released by the US Labor Department. The report showed that jobless claims came in at 351,000


 Index                                Current              Previous          WoW Change (%)                    1 Month H/L
 DOW JONES                             12,985                12,904                 0.62%                      13,050/12,424
 NASDAQ                                2,957                  2,960                 -0.10%                      2,965/2,730
 SHANGHAI                              2,410                  2,357                 2.24%                       2416/2,263
 HANGSENG                              21,381                 2,357                807.18%                     21,760/20,144
 NIKKEI 225                            9,596                  9,238                 3.87%                       9609/8774

The European markets remained in an exhilarated mood as the euro zone ministers, the International Monetary Fund and the European
Central Bank approved the second bailout but only after more than thirteen hours of negotiations. The second bailout agreed first in
October was derailed as Greece faltered in implementing its austerity measures and European politicians demanded stricter conditions.
The 130 billion euros, or $173 billion, financial package still left doubts, however, about how durable the fix would prove. However,
investors turned cautious on speculation whether Greece will be able to fulfill the conditions set by its lenders. Eurozone finance
ministers agreed a €130bn rescue plan for Greece to avert a messy default, including a bond swap to shave €100bn off Greece’s debt
burden.

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                                                        Sectoral Statistics

Sectoral Analysis

The Sensex fell 365.78 points or 2% to 17,923.57 in the week ended 24 February 2012. The S&P CNX Nifty fell 135 points or 2.43% to
5,429.30.The BSE Mid-Cap index tumbled 3.74% and BSE Small-Cap index slipped 3.65%. Both these indices underperformed the
Sensex.

 BSE                                    Current             Previous           WoW Change (%)                    1 Month H/L
 BSE IT                                   6,309                6,267                 0.67%                         6,361/5,587
 BSE FMCG                                 4,190                4,153                 0.89%                         4,219/4,021
 BSE BANKEX                              12,068               12,736                 -5.24%                      12,892/10,939
 BSE OIL & GAS                            8,653                8,645                 0.09%                         8,993/8,293
 BSE METAL                               12,073               12,572                 -3.97%                      12,910/11,169
 BSE AUTO                                10,033               10,319                 -2.77%                       10,487/9,005
 BSE REALTY                               1,928                2,080                 -7.27%                        2,212/1,642


The Indian market's uptrend has sort of taken a pause in the couple of session. We had 1,100 point one way move, so if the market
does correct, it's probably healthier for the market, Many important events like election results, the Budget and the RBI policy are
lined-up in March. Which will make market more volatile in coming days. In realty Sector DB Realty, part of India’s DB Group, closed
7.1% lower, extending losses to a third day. Abu Dhabi-based Etisalat said this week it is shutting down its Indian mobile joint venture
with DB Group and has launched legal proceedings against its Indian partners. DB Realty has said the shutdown of the mobile venture
would have no bearing on its financials because this was an investment by its founders in their individual capacity.


 NSE                                    Current           Previous         WoW Change (%)                      1 Month H/L
 CNX IT                                 6,747                6,703                   0.66%                      6,811/6,626
 CNX Infra                              2,638                2,753                  -4.18%                      2,801/2,626
 CNX Midcap                             7,588                7,925                  -4.25%                      8,043/7,527
 CNX Nifty Junior                       10,332               10,828                 -4.58%                     10,961/10,242
 CNX Defty                              3,831                3,914                  -2.12%                      3,967/3,814
 CNX 500                                4,284                4,414                  -2.95%                      4,456/3,987


On the banking sector front State Bank of India fell nearly 9% during the week on concern over it rising non-performing loans, and hurt
sentiment the sentiment for the banking sector as a whole, In the mean while . Citigroup sold its entire 9.85% stake in Housing
Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) at ` 658 per share. The price at which the deal was done-a discount to market price-
disappointed investors, more so because this is the second major institutional investors to reduce exposure to the company in less than
a month. Citigroup sold its entire 9.85% stake in Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) at ` 658 per share. The price at
which the deal was done-a discount to market price-disappointed investors, more so because this is the second major institutional
investors to reduce exposure to the company in less than a month. In Oil & Gas sector a ministerial panel approved auctioning a 5%
stake in ONGC the state-run explorer.




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                                                          Commodities

Gold prices surged around a percent on Thursday to close around the highest levels in three months, as investors added positions in the
commodity after American greenback depreciated against a basket of currencies and made the dollar denominated bullion cheaper for
overseas investors. The yellow metal prices extended their gaining streak for the fourth straight session as sentiments got a lift from on
the back of encouraging US jobless claims data which remained at the lowest level since the early day of the 2007-2009 recession. Gold
futures for April delivery climbed $15 or 0.9% to settle at $1,786.30 an ounce after trading as high as $1,789.50 and as low as $1,773.30
an ounce, on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, whereas the spot gold prices gained 0.2% to $1,780.06 an ounce.


                                      Current                Previous         WoW Change (%)                     1 Month H/L
 GOLD                                  28,913                 28,127                 2.79%                       28,944/27,557
 SILVER                                60,300                 56,216                 7.26%                       57,777/51,775
 CRUDE OIL                             5,280                   5,104                 3.45%                        5,293/4,752
 ALUMINIUM                              111                     109                  2.02%                          114/106
 COPPER                                 419                     426                  -1.67%                         439/411


Crude oil prices sustained the winning momentum for yet another session on Thursday, making it a six straight session gaining streak,
as investors overlooked the data showing rising oil inventories and focused on the better than expected US jobless claims and German
business confidence reports which spurred optimism. The Brent crude prices, on the other hand, touched the highest levels in nine
months on lingering supply side worries as tensions between the West and Iran showed little signs of waning while the depreciation in
US dollar too buttressed the fuel prices. Benchmark crude for April delivery surged $1.55 or 1.5% to settle at $107.83 a barrel on the
New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, April delivery Brent crude climbed $0.72 or 0.6% to close at $123.62 a barrel.


                                                             Currencies

The February currency future was trading at 49.08/09 with a spread of 0.0025 and a volume of 453,542. The contract opened stronger
at 49.15 against its previous closing of 49.23/24. The open interest (OI) stood at 904,677 up by 1.13% compared to its previous close of
894,505.


                                       Current               Previous           WoW Change (%)                     1 Month H/L
USDINR                                  49.24                  49.42                  -0.37%                        50.64/48.83
EURINR                                  65.63                  64.98                  1.00%                         66.17/63.85
GBPINR                                  77.42                  77.55                  -0.17%                        79.11/77.04
JPYINR*                                 60.83                  62.44                  -2.58%                        65.68/60.68
*Traded in lot size of 100 yen

The dollar has been holding up against the dollar index. It is largely because of the problems in Europe right now in terms of where
Greece heads on the exchange of debt and where the PSI stands. Therefore, the US dollar is finding some supportThe partially
convertible rupee was currently trading at 49.05, stronger compared to its Thursday's close of 49.19/20. The rupee opened at 49.08 and
has touched a high and low of 49.10 and 48.99 respectively. The rupee had closed at 49.19/20 on Thursday, while the Reserve Bank of
India's (RBI) reference rate was at 49.24/25 for Thursday.


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                                                     The Week Gone By
Economy
       
      Aadhaar panel recommends e-payment for all social safety net schemes: The Final Report of the Task Force on Aaadhar-
       Enabled Unified Payment Infrastructure has recommended that payments made under the social safety net programs and
       direct subsidy schemes be done electronically to ensure that the benefits of such schemes reach the intended beneficiaries
       without any leakages and on time. The Chairman of UIDAI and the Task Force, Nandan Nilekani has recommended a systematic,
       platform based transformation of governance through the usage of electronic payments. The Finance Minister, Pranab
       Mukherjee, too is of the view that such a system would help bring in transparency in the system and reduce avoidable delays.
       The Minister has recommended that the pilot projects which are so far mainly implemented in the areas of LPG, kerosene,
       fertilizers and MGNREGS, be up scaled and implemented in more areas and in more States.

      Cash-strapped airlines to import fuel directly against licences issued by DGFT: There seems to be finally a sigh of relief for
       the cash-strapped airlines who will now be allowed to import fuel directly on actual user basis against licences issued by DGFT.
       All licenses will come with a validity period and will become invalid if an airline is not able to import within the prescribed
       period. Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar was reported to have said that the government will only allow actual users to
       import ATF against licences.

      Economy to grow 7.5-8% in FY'13, if global cues turn favourable by PMEAC: Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.1%
       in FY'12, marginally higher than the 6.9% projected by Central Statistical Organisation's (CSO) advance estimates, as per the
       Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC). Further, growth in FY'13 has been projected to be around 7.5-8% if the
       global environment turns favourable. PMEAC, Chairman, C Rangarajan, while releasing the document 'Review of the Economy
       2011-12', has stated that the slight improvement in growth numbers is expected to come from the agriculture and construction
       sectors, which are expected to perform better as compared to advance estimates.

      FM reaffirms govt's commitment to bring 51% FDI in multi brand retail: The Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee has
       reaffirmed his government's commitment to bring in 51% FDI in multi brand retail and has stated that a timeline for the same
       could be expected in the upcoming budget on March 16. The Minister has further said that his government is committed to the
       process of reforms is keen to see India on the path of double digit growth. India's GDP growth is expected to come down to
       6.9% in this fiscal from its earlier trajectory of 8-9%.

      Govt to grant adequate capital to PSU banks to meet global risk norms: Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee has recently
       stated that the government is keen to bring Indian public sector unit (PSU) banks at par with their global peers while catering
       to the needs of our economy. He has appreciated the resilience shown by Indian banks during the global economic crisis but has
       cautioned that there is no room for complacency as the global environment is still uncertain. The minister further said that the
       government is taking steps to ensure that public sector banks have adequate capital to meet global risk norms.

      Inflation up to 7.65% in January 2012 as per India's first-ever CPI-based inflation rate: Provisional annual inflation for
       January 2012 stood at 7.65% as compared to January 2011. Inflation in rural areas was up to 7.38% and for the urban areas it
       was at 8.25%, as per data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation. The highest price increase over
       the corresponding period last fiscal was for clothing, bedding and footwear, an indicator that buyers were spending more on
       accessories. Among food products, the sharpest increase in prices was for milk and products at 16.5%, followed by oils and fats
       at 13.47%. Retail prices also rose by 10.45% for eggs, fish and meat. Vegetables were cheaper by over 24% on a nationwide
       basis in January over the same month last year. Prices for fuel and light also jumped sharply at 13.13%.

      Saudi Arabia expresses intent to fulfill India's long-term energy requirements: Saudi Arabia, one of world's leading oil
       producers and exporters has recognized India's importance as one of the fastest growing markets in the world and has
       indicated that it will fulfill its energy requirements on a long-term basis. India, which imports nearly 2 million tonnes of LPG
       from Saudi Arabia, has sought 5 million tonne of additional crude oil from the nation for the next fiscal.RPN Singh, Minister of
       State for Petroleum & Natural Gas who was called by the Prince Abdul Aziz Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz, Assistant Minister for
       Petroleum Affairs, Saudi Arabia to hold discussions on matters of bilateral cooperation in the oil and gas sector, conveyed
       India's requirement of incremental quantities of Saudi Arabian oil imports in the years ahead considering the ongoing
       expansion in India's refining capacity. The Saudi side assured affirmative consideration of India's request for larger quantities
       of crude oil and LPG while also agreeing to look into the issues raised by India relating to the hydrocarbon trade and investment
       between the two countries.

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                                                      The Week Gone By

Corporate
      Ceat plans to begin plant in Bangladesh: Tyre maker Ceat is planning to begin a plant in Bangladesh and has started the field
       survey and selection of land for the same. The Bangladesh plant would make cross-ply tyres for trucks, light and small
       commercial vehicles and two-wheelers for the local market.Last week, the company announced that it planned to invest 416
       crore taka (` 250 crore) to set up a plant in Bangladesh. Ceat makes different types of tyres for vehicles, including big trucks,
       counter balance trucks, warehouse trucks, personal cars, motorcycles, and three-wheelers.

      DHFL aims to raise up to ` 500 crore through QIP: Dewan Housing Finance Corporation (DHFL), one of the housing finance
       companies, aims to raise up to ` 500 crore through a qualified institutional placement (QIP) of shares. The company has set the
       floor price at ` 225.48 a share for the equity issue.

      DLF collects ` 500 crore from housing project in Gurgaon; sells 350 flats: DLF has collected ` 500 crore from selling 350
       flats in a luxury housing project in Gurgaon -- The Primus -- which is part of a 450 acre integrated township - DLF Garden
       City.The company has set aside an investment amount of ` 8,000 crore to build up the integrated township at Gurgaon within 2-
       3 years. The proposed township - DLF Garden City - will be spread over sectors 86, 87, 90, 91 and 92 (new Gurgaon), and will
       comprise of group housing, commercial and plotted development.

      Etisalat pulls the plug off JV's telecom operations with DB Realty: Abu Dhabi-based telecom operator Etisalat would be
       winding up the operations of its telecom joint venture with DB Realty. Etisalat owns about 45% stake in Etisalat DB, a joint
       venture (JV) between Indian player DB Group and Etisalat of UAE.The move comes in the background of the Supreme Court's
       decision to revoke all 122 licenses issued by the Government of India in January 2008 ', which in turn has removed the
       company's ability to operate from June 2, 2012. Etisalat is the second foreign company, after Bahrain Telecom, to exit India,
       following the apex court ruling of February 2.

      GPT Infraprojects bags orders worth ` 125.30 crore: GPT Infraprojects has bagged two orders worth aggregating ` 125.30
       crore. The company has bagged first order worth ` 110.88 crore from Rail Vikas Nigam for construction of four-lane cable
       stayed road over bridge over Barddhaman yard in lieu of existing two-lane ROB Bridge no 213 of Eastern Railway in the West
       Bengal State, India.The completion period for the project is 24 months and the order has been received in the name of GPT-
       Ranhill (JV). Further, with the completion of this order, the company will become one of the few EPC companies having
       experience for construction of cable stayed bridges, similar to the Bandra-Worli sea link in Mumbai.

      IOB to raise ` 1977.63 crore from LIC and GOI: Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) will be receiving capital infusion aggregating to
       the worth of ` 1977.63 crore from Government of India (GOI) and Life Insurance Company (LIC), out of which the former will
       infuse capital to the tune of ` 1,675 crore and the later would infuse ` 302.63 crore respectively. The bank against this capital
       infusion will be issuing equity shares up to 1712,32,876 equity shares to GOI and 3,09,37,467 equity shares to LIC, at fixed
       price of ` 97.82 per equity share (including premium of ` 87.82).

      Lupin enters into settlement pact with Santarus, Depomed, Inc for GLUMETZA: Pharma major Lupin and its subsidiary,
       Lupin Pharmaceuticals, Inc have entered into a settlement agreement with Santarus, Inc. and Depomed, Inc. to resolve pending
       patent litigation involving GLUMETZA (extended release metformin tablets) 1000 mg and 500 mg.

      NTPC awards orders worth over ` 6,000 crore for 4,000 MW Kudgi project: State-run NTPC has placed equipment orders
       worth over ` 6,000 crore for three units of its upcoming 4,000 MW Kudgi super thermal power plant in Karnataka with Doosan
       Chennai Works and Toshiba JSW Turbine and Generator.The company has placed the steam generator (SG) order worth `
       3,804.70 crore with Doosan Chennai Works, while the steam turbine generator (STG) order to the tune of ` 2,282.90 crore has
       been given to Toshiba JSW Turbine and Generator.

      RIL to form JV with SIBUR to produce butyl rubber in India: Reliance Industries (RIL) and SIBUR, Russia and Eastern
       Europe's largest petrochemical company, have agreed to form a joint venture (JV) named Reliance Sibur Elastomers to produce
       100,000 tons of butyl rubber per year in Jamnagar, India. The JV will be the first manufacturer of butyl rubber in India and the
       fourth largest supplier of butyl rubber in the world.

      SBI to raise ` 7,900 crore through preferential issue to Government: State Bank of India, country's largest public sector
       lender is likely to raise around ` 7,900 crore through preferential issue of shares to the Government of India. The issue price
       has fixed at ` 2,191.69 per share, which includes a face value of ` 10 per share and a premium of ` 2181.69 per share.
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                                                       The Week Ahead
Market may remain Volatile.

      The coming week marks the start of the new month, investor’s will see a lot of economic data pouring in. Auto and
       cement stocks will be in the focus as both Indian automobile and cement industry will report their sales number for the
       month of February 2011.
      Budget expectations may keep share prices volatile in the near term. Reports indicate that the finance ministry is
       considering a proposal to increase excise duty from 10% to 12% in Union Budget 2012/13. Following the economic
       slowdown, that became prominent in September 2008, the government had provided fiscal stimulus, including cut in
       excise duty, to provide a cushion to the domestic industry. As the government is faced with widening fiscal deficit, there
       are apprehensions in the industry that excise duty may be hiked in the Budget.
      Another pending tax reform is the Direct Tax Code (DTC). The DTC, which seeks to modernise the direct taxation
       system, will replace the Income Tax Act, 1961. Mukherjee had tabled the DTC Bill in Lok Sabha in August 2011, which
       was referred to the Standing Committee for scrutiny. Although the government is unlikely to introduce the DTC from 1
       April 2012, as planned earlier, it may incorporate some of the provisions of the proposed law in Union Budget 2012/13
      Additionally, market men will also be eyeing a deferred meeting of empowered group of ministers .(EGOM) on
       divestment of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) issue, which is scheduled to be held on February 27. Further,
       banking stocks are expected to hog some lime light in the coming week as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will meet banks
       on February 29 or March1 to discuss the bad loans situation in the banking industry.

Forthcoming Corporate Action

Scrip Name                           Ex-Date                 Purpose                                        ` per share
Zodiac Cloth                         24-Feb-12               Interim Dividend                                        1
Sinclairs Hotel-$                    28-Feb-12               Interim Dividend                                        4
Pankaj Poly                          29-Feb-12               Scheme of Arrangement                                   -
Plastiblends-$                       29-Feb-12               Stock Split from `. 10/- to `. 5/-                      -
Escorts                              1-Mar-12                Dividend                                               1.5
MANDHANA                             1-Mar-12                Interim Dividend                                        1
CHL                                  2-Mar-12                Interim Dividend                                        1




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                                       Event Calendar – Global

    Date         Event
     13-Feb-12   EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY)
     13-Feb-12   EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY)
     14-Feb-12   USD Durable Goods Orders
     14-Feb-12   EUR German Unemployment Change
     14-Feb-12   EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)
     14-Feb-12   EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY)
     14-Feb-12   USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized)
     14-Feb-12   USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index
     14-Feb-12   USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ)
     15-Feb-12   EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY)
     15-Feb-12   USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY)
     15-Feb-12   USD ISM Manufacturing
     15-Feb-12   EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY)
     16-Feb-12   CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM)


                                     Upcoming Corporate Result

Date                   Company
27-Feb-2011            Advanta India, Good Year India, Cethar Ind,
28- Feb-2011           Merck,Esab India,Megasoft,Bosch, Calue Industries
29- Feb-2011           Bata,MVL,Sterling Bio,MVL




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                                                       Technical View

Nifty Weekly View
Our Analysis:

It was the first negative weekly close for the Indian equity market in the calendar year 2012. The past seven weeks have seen positive
rallies. The market fell more than 2% during this week to close at 5,429; while it rallied 18-20% in the previous seven weeks helped by
inflow of around ` 29,000 crore. Nifty was under considerable pressure during last half of the week and closed just below the important
support area of 5,434 which is 50% retracement of 6,338-4,531. We are expecting some kind of consolidation to correction in the
coming week as major sectoral indices like Banking, Oil & Gas and Capital Goods sectors are under pressure. The weekly trend will be
considered to be up only till the time Nifty hold onto 5,351. However, it is advisable to buy on dips as we might go under some kind of
correction before in coming week.

Market Strength Indicators:

RSI on daily charts has come out of overbought zone and now trading healthy 60.03. We saw negative divergence on daily charts last
week which suggests some correction in the Nifty is inevitable. Nifty is exactly trading at 100 WMA placed at 5,415, closing below this
level will result in weakening of chart. ADX on daily charts is at 20.90, DI+ (30.21) and DI-(17.95). This data does suggest upward bias
but the direction for the DI+ and DI- has turned negative which is the first indicator that fast moves in the nifty might be over and some
kind of consolidation might follow.

Implication & Interpretation:

We at FIFL are of the view that, Nifty finally the much awaited correction has come and we might see further lower levels of
around 5,300-5,250 is on the cards before the resumption of an uptrend. Our last week’s strategy of buying deep out of the money
March puts (5,200 and 5,300 strikes) in order to hedge the portfolio has paid off and we are maintaining our stance of holding
onto them. Nifty held onto the last week’s suggested range of 5,400-5,650. Range for the coming week is advocated between
5,600-5,250.

Nifty Weekly Chart




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                                                         Technical View
Bank Nifty Weekly View
Our Analysis:

The reason behind sharp correction in the market is relative outperformance of Bank Nifty on downside. Interestingly enough Bank
Nifty retraced exactly from 61.8% retracement at 11,187 for the range of 13,301-7,766. It also closed below 50% retracement at 10,533
to close at 10,506 suggesting further pressure may come in coming week. The overall intermediate structure of the Bank Nifty will be
considered to be positive if it manages to hold onto 10,080 levels as this data point is previous high. We got confirmation of change in
short term trend in the index when it breached 10,550 levels.

Market Strength Indicators:

RSI on daily charts has fallen significantly from the highs of 83 to 58 is the mirror of the price action in the Bank Nifty. We also witnesses
negative divergence on daily charts. Bank Nifty is critically poised at support of its 100 WMA which is at 10,452 breaking below this
support will result in further lower levels. ADX on daily charts is just giving the idea how the underneath trend which turns out turns
out to be down is so strong.

Implication & Interpretation:

We at FIFL are of the view that, this week Bank Nifty has violated the short term structure which was up. We might see lower
levels up to 10,100 before the resumption of an uptrend. However we are of the view that till the time Bank Nifty holds onto
10,100 levels the uptrend is still intact. In fact it is better if Bank nifty bounces from similar levels as it will give the confirmation
of uptrend which began 7 weeks ago. Range for the Bank nifty for this week is advocated between 10,850-10,100.



Bank Nifty weekly Chart




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                                      Stock Idea – Tata Steel


 Recommendation             Buy       Our Analysis:
 Industry                   Metals
 CMP(`)                      475      Tata steel stock is showing some interesting pattern. It has completed the ‘CUP’
 Target (`)               503/ 512    pattern and is in the process of making ‘HANDLE’ pattern on daily charts. Break
 Return Potential (%)     5.89/7.78   above ` 491 will result in much higher levels. We have witnessed huge price aciton
                                      in the stock on 10th of Feb, 2012 with huge spurt in volume indiacting strong hands
                                      are getting in the stock. The stock has also managed to close above 50%
 Technical Data                       retracement at ` 474 for the range of ` 617-330.
 50 DMA :                    415
 100 DMA:                    418      Market Strength Indicators:
 200 DMA:                    477
                                      RSI on daily charts is trading at 57.94 which is although below its average RSI but it
 RSI( 14,E,9)               57.94
                                      is trading in positive territory. ADX on weekly charts is suggesting bulls are firmly
                                      in control and uptrend is in tact. Closing above 200SDMA at ` 477 will result in
                                      further upmove.

                                      Implication & Interpretation:

                                      The above analysis implies the stock has limited downside up to ` 460-455 and
                                      price volume action does suggest the stock is getting bought at lower levels. We at
                                      FIFL are recommending buy on Tata Steel in the range of ` 475-470 for the
                                      target of ` 503-512 over 2-3 weeks time frame. Stop Loss can be kept below `
                                      455 on closing basis.



Tata Steel, Daily chart




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                                                             Team
Name                                      Designation                                     E-mail
Rajendra K. Agarwal                       Director                                        rk.agarwal@fifl.co.in
Abhishek Agarwal                          Director                                        a.agarwal@fifl.co.in
Sushil Sanganeria                         Branch Head                                     s.sanganeria@fifl.co.in
Ajeet Kumar Bhat                          Institutional Sales                             a.bhat@fifl.co.in
Subham Sinha                              Institutional Sales Trader                      s.sinha@fifl.co.in
Santosh Kumar Singh                       Sr.Technical Analyst                            sk.singh@fifl.co.in
Chaitanya Joshi                           Technical Analyst                               c.joshi@fifl.co.in
Rakesh V Shinde                           Sr. Research Analyst                            r.shinde@fifl.co.in
Ram Mundra                                Research Analyst                                r.mundra@fifl.co.in
Amit Pabari                               Research Associate                              a.pabari@fifl.co.in
Chandraveer Singh                         Dealer-HNI                                      c.singh@fifl.co.in




                 To contact the Institutional Research Team please call us at +91-22-40233905

Regd Office: 19, British Indian Street, Ground Floor, Flat No.2&3, Kolkata 700 069. Tel: 91-33- 22101152/1154, Fax: 91-33-22101153



Corporate Office: C-303, Marathon NextGen Innova, Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Opp. Peninsula Corporate Park, Lower Parel (West),
Mumbai - 400013, India. Tel: 91-22- 40233900 Fax: 91-22-40233907


Member: National Stock Exchange of India Ltd & Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd, SEBI Regd No. INB231243230 (NSE-Capital Market
Segment) INF231243230 (NSE-Derivative Market Segment) INB011243236 (BSE-Capital Market Segment)




www.fifl.co.in                                                                                                        11 |
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www.fifl.co.in                                                                                                                 12 |
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