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Slide 1 UCLA (PowerPoint)

VIEWS: 7 PAGES: 27

									BACKGROUND
    In 1996, the LACMTA and Bus Riders Union signed a Consent Decree Agreement, a
     10 year long contract in which Metro was obligated to improve LA’s bus system and
     make the transit dependent its first priority for funding.

    Result of a lawsuit which charged Metro with Violations of Title VI the 1964 Civil
     Rights Act by establishing a discriminatory, separate, and unequal transportation
     system while using federal funds.

    To “undo” the massive disinvestment and neglect of bus levels of service
     Consent Decree mandates:
          Reduce overcrowding
          Keep fares low
          Addition of 1 Million Revenue Service Hours
          Rapid Service

    December marks the expiration date of the final component of the Consent Decree.
EQUITY ANALYSIS
     Federal Transit Administration (FTA) mandates an equity analysis every time there are
      major service changes or fare increases.
       Title VI Circular
       Disproportionately high and adverse effect on minority and low‐income riders?
       Describe the actions proposes to minimize, mitigate, or offset any adverse effects

     Public Hearings are only required for service changes that involve entire system service
      changes over 25%

     Non-Cumulative = determined on a shake-up to shake-up basis

     Metro makes service adjustments known as shake-ups:
       Semi-annual, usually every 6 months to coincide with union bids
       Metro bus operators bid for driving slots based on seniority
       Metro determines the threshold at which equity analyses are needed (>25%)

POLICY QUESTION:
Does the recent slew of shake ups/service cuts disproportionately affect Transit Dependent
communities?
                                                Journey to Work
                                            Percent Public Transit




Created By: Clarrissa K. Cabansagan, 2010
Sources: ESRI, Census 2000
 Journey to Work
 Percent of Public Transit Commuters On Public Transit >30 Minutes
                                                                                                                                       Percent Public Transit to Work




                                                                                                                                    Created By: Clarrissa K. Cabansagan, 2010
                                                                                                                                    Sources: ESRI, Census 2000
% Public Transit Commuters that take Pub. Transit > 30 Min :
[# Workers on Pub. Transit 30-44 Min + # Workers on Pub. Transit 45-59 Min + # Workers on Pub Transit 60+ Min] / [# Workers who take Public Transit]
Metro Demographics




          According to Metro’s 2009 Annual Customer Satisfaction Survey, its bus & rail riders:



    80%                      Use Metro to Commute to/from work

    72%                      Did not have a car available to make their current trip

    71%                      Ride Metro 5+ days per week

    57%                      Had to transfer to complete their current one-way trip

                         BUS RIDERS MAKE UP 74% OF RIDERSHIP
                          Average bus rider makes $12K per year
Transit Dependency
  Hotspot Analysis
Transit Dependency Hotspot Index


  Median Income
  4 = <$15K
  3 = >$15K - $30K
  2 = >$30K - $60K
  1 = >$60K - $200K

  Percent of Population Elderly & <18 Years Old
  1 = <25%
  2 = 26% - 35%
  3 = 36% - 75%
  4 = 76% - 100%

  Percent Zero Vehicle Households
  1 = <25%
  2 = >25%


                                           Hotspot Index:
         Median Income + PCT of Pop. Elderly & <18 Years Old + PCT Zero Vehicle Households
  HOTSPOT DEMOGRAPHICS




                                                         % Population Elderly & <18 Years Old


                  Median Income




Created By: Clarrissa K. Cabansagan, 2010
Sources: ESRI, Census 2000                  % Zero Vehicle Households
Transit Dependency
Hotspot



                               Median Income
                                      +
                       Percent Zero Car Households
                                      +
                     Percent (Pop. Elderly + Pop. >18)
                                      =
                            Transit Dependency




                      Created By: Clarrissa K. Cabansagan, 2010
                      Sources: ESRI, Census 2000
Transit Dependency
Areas of Concern




                           Transit Dependency >7
                                      =
                              Areas of Concern




                     Created By: Clarrissa K. Cabansagan, 2010
                     Sources: ESRI, Census 2000
                                      Metro Service Lines Added Since FY2008

                    EXISTING DIRECTLY OPERATED LINES               NEW DIRECTLY OPERATED LINES




Existing lines are reflective of any route changes since FY2008.
New and existing lines as of June 2010.



Created By: Clarrissa K. Cabansagan, 2010
Sources: ESRI, LACMTA, Census 2000
 Reduction in Bus Revenue Service Hours



                      0

                  -20000
                            -75,000                -74,000         -74,000
                  -40000

                  -60000
                                       -150,000
                  -80000    -25,000
                 -100000                           -63,500         -63,500
                 -120000

                 -140000
                                                       RESTRUCTURING ADJUSTMENTS
                                                       CAPACITY ADJUSTMENTS
                 -160000

                 -180000
                           Q2 2010    Q4 2010     Q2 2011       Q4 2011


Source: LACMTA
 Reduction in Bus Revenue Service Hours              525,000 RSHs

                      0

                  -20000
                            -75,000                -74,000         -74,000
                  -40000

                  -60000
                                       -150,000
                  -80000    -25,000
                 -100000                           -63,500         -63,500
                 -120000

                 -140000
                                                       RESTRUCTURING ADJUSTMENTS
                                                       CAPACITY ADJUSTMENTS
                 -160000

                 -180000
                           Q2 2010    Q4 2010     Q2 2011       Q4 2011


Source: LACMTA
  Bus Frequency in Transit Dependent Hotspot
  I N C R E A S E in Number of Trips Since FY2008*




*AM Peak: 6 to 9AM
 Daily (DX) Service
 Directions: Westbound & Northbound
                                                     Created By: Clarrissa K. Cabansagan, 2010
                                                           Sources: ESRI, LACMTA, Census 2000
  Bus Frequency in Transit Dependent Hotspot
  D E C R E A S E in Number of Trips Since FY2008*




*AM Peak: 6 to 9AM
 Daily (DX) Service
 Directions: Westbound & Northbound
                                                     Created By: Clarrissa K. Cabansagan, 2010
                                                           Sources: ESRI, LACMTA, Census 2000
Bus Frequency
Lines with I N C R E A S E S in Number of Trips



                                                           AM Peak 6AM – 9 AM


                                                                  Northbound
                                                                      &
                                                                  Westbound

                                                              Daily (DX) Service


                                                      Pedsheds are represented by a
                                                       0.25 mile buffer around lines.




                                                  Created By: Clarrissa K. Cabansagan, 2010
                                                  Sources: ESRI, Census 2000, LACMTA
Bus Frequency
Lines with D E C R E A S E S in Number of Trips



                                                           AM Peak 6AM – 9 AM


                                                                  Northbound
                                                                      &
                                                                  Westbound

                                                              Daily (DX) Service


                                                      Pedsheds are represented by a
                                                       0.25 mile buffer around lines.




                                                  Created By: Clarrissa K. Cabansagan, 2010
                                                  Sources: ESRI, Census 2000, LACMTA
Trip Thinning | Potential Consolidation of Service?
                                                              Areas in light red represent a
                                                               very generous estimation of
                                                               where there have not been a
                                                                 corresponding increase in
                                                                frequency of trips. That is,
                                                            individuals dependent on service
                                                            in these areas have longer waits
                                                              for the next bus or are at best
                                                              absorbed onto other lines that
                                                               have not seen any change in
                                                              frequency of service over the
                                                                   past two fiscal years.

                                                                               -
                                                                     AM Peak 6AM – 9 AM
                                                                    Northbound &Westbound
                                                                       Daily (DX) Service


                                                                 Pedsheds are represented by a
                                                                  0.25 mile buffer around lines.




                                                      Created By: Clarrissa K. Cabansagan, 2010
                                                      Sources: ESRI, Census 2000, LACMTA
Ridership on Lines with >50% Decrease in Number of Trips
FY 2008-2010

 250,000                                                                                               Line 150
                                                                                                       Line 751
                                                                                                       Line 734
                                                                                                       Line 60
 200,000                                                                                               Line 260
                                                                                                       Line 53
                                                                                                       Line 258
                                                                                                       Line 30
 150,000
                                                                                                       Line 70
                                                                                                       Line 66
                                                                                                       Line 220
 100,000                                                                                               Line 154
                                                                                                       Line 234
                                                                                                       Line 156
                                                                                                       Line 175
  50,000                                                                                               Line 233
                                                                                                       Line 94
                                                                                                       Line 33
                                                                                                       Line 4
          0
                     Avg2008                  Avg2009                  Avg2010             Q1 2011

 Chart displays average ridership for fiscal years 2008-2010.
 Lines display ridership for Daily Metro bus service (not Saturday or Sunday ridership).
                                                                                                     Source: LACMTA
POLICY ANALYSIS


                         RIDERSHIP             LEVELS OF SERVICE




      Efficiency Reductions mean longer waits, infrequency of trips, unnecessary
       transfers, overall extended travel time for bus riders already facing major
       transportation hurdles to jobs, education and health care.

      Eviddence of a reversal of improvements gained through Consent Decree?

      According to Brian Taylor, increasing service frequency and schedule adherence
       attracts lots of riders
        SO, the easiest way to decimate ridership is to decrease frequency and
            service in general.
        Transit Dependent bear the burden of shake-ups simply because they
            actually rely on bus service—no alternative transportation options.
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

  Fare Restructuring to Increase Ridership
       Distance-based fares
       Ameliorates disproportionate subsidization of rail riders
       Fare increases chase away higher income riders (who can switch to cars)
           Fare reductions attract lower-income riders (who have fewer choices)

  Free Transfers
        If mitigation requires transfers—must accommodate for transit
           dependent

  Cumulative Impact of Shake-Ups in Equity Analyses

  Change Threshold for Transit Dependent Areas of Concern
       Cuts greater than 20% by line instead of 25% total bus system service
MODELS
METADATA
SKILLS USED
   INSET MAP | slides 4, 5, 6, 16, 17
   POINT OR LINE GRADUATED SYMBOL | slides 16, 17
   AGGREGATING ATTRIBUTE FIELDS | slide 4 (aggregated non-white); slide 6 (aggregated all riders on transit to work
         >30 minutes, found percentage over total transit riders); slides 10 & 11 (aggregated # of elderly and # minors, found
         percentage over total population).
   HOTSPOT ANALYSIS | slides 11, 12, 13, 16 - 20
   ATTRIBUTE SUB-SELECTIONS | slides 16 – 20 (lines selected out as needed and exported as new layers)
   GEOPROCESSING | dissolving, merging & clipping | slides 4, 6, 16 - 20 (highways selected & dissolved; buffers created
         then dissolved; lines where trips increased/decreased were selected, merged into one file; clipped buffer around lines
         with increase in trips to buffer around lines with decreases in trips
   MODELING | slide 24 (models used for hotspot)
   METADATA | slide 25
   MEASUREMENT/ANALYSIS | slides 18 - 20 (Pedshed = 0.25 Mile buffer around lines)
   ORIGINAL DATA | slides 13, 16 - 21 (To geographically visualize various bus lines or attributes of bus lines I joined Metro
         bus line layers with original data extracted from excel files and 4-24 Reports produced by Metro. The data required
         much data manipulation in Excel before I was able to join to Metro’s bus line shape files. I often had to find percent
         changes and trends over time. Metro bus line shape files are separated into different layers. I merged these lines into
         one layer to manage data for mapping trip in/decreases.
   CHARTS | slides 14, 15; slide 21 (average ridership from quarterly reported figures)
   3D MODELING | slide 5
   7 LAYERS | slide 20 (Cali detail, decrease buffer, overlap buffer, highways, zero household tracts, LA tracts & image of
         hotspot)

								
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