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					   IDEAs-RIS Workshop on “Nature and
    Implications of Expanding Presence of
    India and China for Developing Asia

    Asian Experience through trade, Aid and
             Investment: South Asia
                    I.N.Mukherji
                 Senior Consultant
                        RIS
                5-6 November, 2009
 INDIA  AND
CHINA IN SOUTH
  ASIA TRADE
         Figure 1: China and India's Export           Figure 2: China and India's Export Shares
        Shares in South Asia (US$'000): 2000                in South Asia (US$'000): 2008



India
1,719,206,                                               India
   43%                                               10,130,441,
                                                         44%
                                                                                         China
                                          China,
                                                                                      12,804,490,
                                        2,235,616,
                                                                                          56%
                                           57%




       Between 2000-2008 both the countries’ trade has
        expanded in South Asia but their relative shares remain
        about the same.
    Figure 3: China and India's Import Shares      Figure:4: China and India's Import
                                                Shares from South Asia (US$'000): 2008
          in South Asia (US$'000): 2000



                                                                         China,
     India,                                                            1,209,335,
                                  China,                                  36%
    501,120,
                                 536,426,               India
      48%
                                   52%               2,180,010,
                                                        64%




   In 2000 the import shares of China and India were about
    equal. In 2008 the shares of china and India became
    about one-third and two-thirds respectively.
    Figure 5: China's Exports to South Asia by End-Use              Figure 6: India's Exports to South Asian
                                                                   Countries by End-Use Classification: 2008
                    Classification: 2008


                                                                         14%    9%
                   2%
           25%
                                              Raw materials                                          Raw materials

                                              Intermediate goods                                     Intermediate goods

                                              Consumer goods       27%                               Consumer goods
                          53%
                                              Capital goods                          50%             Capital goods
           20%




   In 2008 both countries exported predominantly intermedite goods of
    around 50%. However China exported relatively more capital goods
    while India relatively more consumer goods and raw materials.
      China's Imports from India by End-use
                 0%                                         India's Imports from South Asian Countries by
                classification: 2000                                  End-use classification: 2000
                0%

            1% 0%

          3%    0%                     Intermediate goods
                                                                       1%
                                       Consumer goods                        21%
                                       Capital goods           32%                              Raw materials
                                                                                                Intermediate goods
                                                                                                Consumer goods
                                                                                                Capital goods

               96%                                                          46%




   In 2000 China predominantly imported intermediate goods (96%),
    and miniscule consumer goods. By contrast, India’s import structure
    was more balanced, importing intermediate goods, consumer
    goods and raw materials in order of importance.
    China's Imports from south Asian Countries by             India's Imports from South Asian Countries by
             End-use Classification: 2008                               end-use Classification: 2008

                1%
                                                                        9%      18%
               4%
                        32%                                                                        Raw materials
                                         Raw materials
                                         Intermediate goods                                        Intermediate goods
                                                                 33%
                                         Consumer goods                                            Consumer goods

                                         Capital goods                                             Capital goods
         63%                                                                     40%




   In 2008 China continued to import predominantly intermediate goods, but also
    raw materials. Its imports of consumer goods and capital goods was modest
    to negligible. India continued to import intermediate goods but also consumer
    goods , raw materials as also some capital goods.
 INDIA  AND
CHINA IN ASEAN
    TRADE
 ASEAN’s Imports from India, China and World
                                                    (Value in $ billion)

     Year                           China   India          World
                 2000               16.74   3.13           349.72
                 2001               19.4    3.56           334.67
                 2002               26.13   4.03           355.05
                 2003               32.74   4.47           397.93
                 2004               46.57   7.16           496.22
                 2005               59.72   8.47           576.75
                 2006               67.35   9.68           615.24
Source: WITS Database, March 2008
                                  Share of India and China in ASEAN's World Imports
                      12



                      10
Share in Percentage




                      8



                      6



                      4



                      2



                      0
                           2000        2001      2002     2003      2004     2005     2006

                                                         China    India
                  ASEAN's Imports from India                               ASEAN's Imports from China
                By End Use Classifications, 2000                          By End Use Classifications, 2000


                           12%                                                      10%
          19%


                                               Raw materials                                             Raw materials
                                                                                           21%
                                               Intermediate goods   45%                                  Intermediate goods
                                               Consumer goods                                            Consumer goods
    19%
                                               Capital goods                                             Capital goods

                                 50%
                                                                                     24%




   In 2000, 50% of ASEAN’S imports from India were
    intermediate goods, 19% capital and consumption goods.
    From China ASEAN imported 45% capital goods and 24%
    consumer goods.
            ASEAN's Imports from China                                     ASEAN's Imports from India
           By End Use Classifications, 2006                              By End Use Classifications, 2006


                  4%                                                     12%      8%

                          19%

                                              Raw materials                                                 Raw materials
                                              Intermediate goods                                            Intermediate goods
                                              Consumer goods                                                Consumer goods
                                                                                          41%
     60%                                      Capital goods        39%                                      Capital goods
                           17%




   In 2006, ASEAN’s share of Chinese imports went up to
    60% for capital goods, whereas in case of India, the share
    of consumer goods went up to 39%.
               China's Share in ASEAN's World Imports: By End
                       Use Classifications - 2000 & 2006
        16
        14
        12
        10
         8
         6
         4
         2
         0
             Raw materials   Intermediate   Consumer goods   Capital goods
                                 goods
                                                             2000      2006


   Over the period 2000-06 the share of China in ASEAN’s world imports
    has gone up has gone up significantly in all end-use products
    (particularly in capital goods), while the share in raw materials has
    declined.
          India's Share in ASEAN's World Imports: By End
                  Use Classifications - 2000 & 2006
    3.5

    3.0

    2.5

    2.0

    1.5

    1.0

    0.5

    0.0
          Raw materials   Intermediate   Consumer goods   Capital goods
                              goods
                                                           2000     2006


   In case of India, the share of India in ASEAN’S world
    imports of consumer goods and intermediate goods only
    has gone up over the period 2000-06.
           India's Share in ASEAN's World Imports: By End
                   Use Classifications - 2000 & 2006
     3.5

     3.0

     2.5

     2.0

     1.5

     1.0

     0.5

     0.0
           Raw materials   Intermediate   Consumer goods   Capital goods
                               goods
                                                            2000     2006



   The share of India in ASEAN’s world imports increased
    primarily in case of intermediate and consumer goods.

				
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