London and South East Services

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					                              APPENDIX 1
                    (referred to in paragraph 1.9)

                London and South East Services
Inner Suburban
Watford Juntion—St Albans Abbey
Broad Street/Willesden Junction—Richmond
Euston/Broad Street—Watford Junction—Croxley Green
Paddington—Hayes/Slough
Baling—Greenford
Slough—Windsor
London—Gillingham via Dartford
London—Sevenoaks via Swanley/Orpington
London—Hayes/Sanderstead/Addiscombe
London—Sevenoaks via Grove Park
South London Suburban
London—Windsor/Weybridge/Hounslow/Kingston
London—Hampton Court/Guildford/Horsham/ Chessington
Clapham Junction—Kensington Olympia
Waterloo and City
Barking—Kentish Town
Romford—Upminster
Camden Road/Tottenham Hale—Stratford Low Level/North Woolwich
Liverpool Street—Enfield Town/Chingford
Kings Cross/Moorgate—Hertford North/Welwyn Garden City

Outer suburban
Euston—Bletchley
Euston—Northampton/Rugby/Birmingham
Moorgate/St Pancras—Luton/Bedford/Kettering
Marylebone—Harrow—Aylesbury
Marylebone—High Wycombe—Aylesbury/Banbury
Paddington—Maidenhead/Bourne End/Henley/Reading
Paddington/Reading/Oxford—Banbury/Birmingham NS
Paddington—Didcot—Oxford
Paddington—Newbury/Westbury
London—Kent Coast
London—Hastings via Tonbridge
London—Uckfield/East Grinstead
London—Brighton/Eastbourne/Littlehampton/Ore via Haywards Heath
London—Bognor Regis/Portsmouth via Arundel
London—Portsmouth via Woking
London—Bournemouth/Alton (stopping services)
London—Reading/Guildford
Wickford—Southminster
Colchester—Sudbury
Liverpool Street—Broxbourne/Hertford East/Bishops Stortford
Fenchurch Street—Tilbury/Laindon—Southend/Shoeburyness
                                 190
Liverpool Street/Colchester—Chelmsford/Witham/Braintree/Colchester/-
  Clacton/Walton
Liverpool Street—Shenfield/Southend Victoria
Kings Cross—Royston—Cambridge
Kings Cross—Peterborough—Grantham

Peripheral
Bedford (St Johns)—Bletchley
Maidenhead—Bourne End—Marlow
Twyford—Henley
Paddington/Didcot/Oxford—Moreton in Marsh—Worcester/Great Malvern
Reading—Newbury—Bedwyn
Ashford—Hastings
Ore—Brighton and branches
Brighton—Portsmouth and branches
Portsmouth—Southampton/Salisbury/Eastleigh
Isle of Wight
Reading—Basingstoke—Salisbury
Reading—Tonbridge




                                191
                                    APPENDIX 2
                          (Referred to in paragraph 1.15)
                     Case Studies of Selected Services
Introduction
   1. We explained in Chapter 1 that it was not practicable for us to study
the wide range of individual services within the ambit of the reference
but that we were able in consultation with BRB to select 10 of them for
examination in depth. The selection was weighted towards services in Liver-
pool Street and South Eastern Divisions which we knew were subject to
a high level of complaint. We somewhat redressed the balance by also
choosing services in Kings Cross Division and the London Division of Lon-
don Midland Region. In both these Divisions there has been the benefit
of relatively recent investment in electrification. The studies have thus
enabled us to look in some detail at the varying levels of service experienced
by commuters in L & SE and to explore the reasons for the variation.
We asked the Commuter Associations in the areas concerned with the
selected services for their views and nearly all responded.
                                                            !
  2. The studies are covered in the following order:
        Liverpool St Division (Eastern Region)
     1. Liverpool St—Shenfield/Southend Victoria
    2. Liverpool St—Enfield/Chingford

       Kings Cross Division (Eastern Region)
   3a. Kings Cross—Royston/Cambridge*
   3b. Moorgate—Welwyn Garden City/Hertford North*

       London Division (London Midland Region)
    4. Euston—Bletchley
    5. Euston/Broad St—Watford Junction/Croxley Green
         South Eastern Division (Southern Region)
    6.   London—Kent Coast
    7.   London—Hastings via Tonbridge
    8.   London—Gillingham via Dartford
    9.   London—Sevenoaks via Swanley

  3. An identical range of data was not readily available for each of the
services and the material presented in the different studies reflects this.

   4. The PP & CCA data set out in each study give a broad indication
of the relative profitability of the selected services at the level of contribu-
tion to indirect costs; the data are based on budgets and must be treated
with some reserve for the reasons set out in paragraphs 3.38 to 3.41 of
the report. The following table compares certain base data for the 10 ser-
vices either extracted or derived from the Board's budget analysis for 1980.
  * Taken together for convenience under the heading Great Northern Electrics.
                                          192
Comparative data for the 10 case studies—1980 estimates
                             Passenger       Earnings     Contribution to Indirect Costs
Service                       Miles(M)         £000          £000          % of earnings
Liverpool St—
Shenfield/Southend*            441-7          22,589         8,395             37
Liverpool St—
Enfield/Chingfordt               62-1          4,021           (675)          (17)
Kings Cross—
Royston/Cambridge*              175-3          8,822         3,801             43
Moorgate—Welwyn
Garden City/
Hertford!                        80-6          5,309         (2,848)          (54)
Euston—
Bletchley*                      129-4          5,503         2,890             53
Euston/Broad St—
Watford Junction/
Croxley Green t                  62-2          4,662          1,279             27
London—
Kent Coast*                    956-2          39,950         12,873             32
London—Hastings
via Tonbridge*                  150-6          6,352           982              15
London—Gillingham
via Dartford t                 449-6          23,720         6,801             29
London—Sevenoaks
via Swanleyt                    134-8          7,744          1,204             16

 Source: BRB PP & CCA
 * Outer suburban
 t Inner suburban



We comment on the wide range of results for individual service groups
within the sub sectors of Inner and Outer Suburban services at paragraph
3.44 of the Report.



                    1. Liverpool Street—Shenfield/Southend Victoria
Introduction
   1.1. This is an Eastern Region outer suburban service and part of the
Liverpool Street local service group. This group is divided into five sections:
the London, Tilbury and Southend, Great Eastern Inner, Great Eastern
Outer, North East London and North London Orbital. Together with the
Romford—Upminster and Wickford—Southminster branch lines the Shen-
field/Southend service completes the Great Eastern inner section of the
service group. Figure 1 shows the London services from Liverpool Street.

   1.2. There is an important interchange with LT at Stratford and the ser-
vice out as far as Shenfield shares the route with the Great Eastern outer
service to Colchester, Clacton and Norwich. As well as interchanges with
the branch lines at Romford and Wickford, there is also an interchange
at Stratford with the BRB line from Camden Road to North Woolwich.
                                    193
The service
  1.3. The Liverpool Street to Shenfield service is at present run with 90
Class 306 3-car EMUs built in 1949, but these are soon to be replaced
with 61 4-car Class 315 units of similar design to the Class 508 stock on
SR. The Liverpool Street—Southend service is run with Class 307 and 308/1
4 car EMUs (operated as 8- and 12- car sets in the peak) built in 1956-61.



                                                                     FIGURE 1
 London services from Liverpool Street and Fenchurch Street

                                      To Ely. Norwich. King's Lynn

                                                                                To Lowestofl.Felustowe



         Source: BRB




                                                                                                           Street servtces
                                                                                          ^— local and otner services
                                                                                          •— Underground Osuict Une
                                                                                               Interchange with Underground
                                                                                               Rarfarr coach (O'from
                                                                                                                       Arporl
                                                                                          6 2i Timetable numbers




      To Charing Ooss.Victorta.
     Kmg s Oo&s. Euston Square. .^.
       BakerSireel.Paddingion
                          Fenchurc



                                                                      194
   1.4. The service pattern is in the peak hour a 10 minute cycle to and
from Liverpool Street as follows:
      Fast—Billericay and all stations to Southend Victoria.
      Stratford, Harold Wood and all stations to Southend Victoria.
      Stratford, Ilford and all stations to Shenfield.
      Stratford, Ilford, Romford and Gidea Park.
      All stations to Ilford and Gidea Park.
      Stratford, Ilford and all stations to Gidea Park (2 trains only).

   1.5. In the off-peak there is a 20 minute cycle as follows:
     Stratford, Ilford, Romford and all stations to Southend Victoria;
     all stations to Gidea Park.
On winter Sundays this cycle is half-hourly; on summer Sundays there
is a 20 minute cycle.



  1.6. Journey times vary between the peak and off-peak. Table 1 gives
some examples.
TABLE 1. Journey time examples
                                            Minutes          Miles
               London to:            Peak         Off-peak
               Romford                22              17     12i
               Brentwood              30              32     18
               Wickford               38              49     29
               Southend Victoria      59              70     41!

 Source: BRB




Evidence from commuter associations
   1.7. There are three commuter associations concerned with the services
on this line: The Shenfield Rail Users' Association, The South East Essex
Rail Travellers' Association and the Southend Railway Travellers' Associ-
ation and evidence has been received from all these bodies.

  1.8. The Southend Railway Travellers' Association has represented
Southend commuters since 1912. They have three main areas of criticism:
    (i) Rolling stock availability—planned load factors are too high and short
        trains exacerbate the problem.
   (ii) Rolling stock design—the stock is old and the refurbishment pro-
        gramme will not improve the riding qualities. The Association com-
        mented on the proposed layout of the refurbished stock but were
        disappointed to learn that their comments were not relayed from
        Liverpool Street to the designers and engineers.
  (iii) There is a lack of financial information on specific services.
                                     195
   1.9. BRB have replied to these criticisms as follows:
    (i) They concede that train formations on lines to and from Southend
        suffer from reductions on a daily basis. This is due to two factors;
        firstly the need to remove asbestos from trains means that units are
        out of service for overhaul longer than originally planned and delays
        in overhaul affect reliability, and, secondly, staff shortages at main
        works where overhaul is undertaken have contributed to the problem.
   (ii) There has been delay to the refurbishment programme; at present
        it appears that only 52 vehicles will be refurbished in 1981. The re-
        placement of bogies to improve the ride would have almost doubled
        the costs of refurbishment and could not be justified. They state
        that the Association's comments on refurbishment were relayed to
        their designers and engineers and will be reflected in design changes.
  (iii) It is not the Board's policy to provide for the public financial informa-
        tion relating to specific services because they feel that the figures
        are open to misinterpretation.
   1.10. The Shenfield Rail Users' Association has drawn attention to the
age of both the rolling stock and Liverpool Street station, lack of co-ope-
ration from staff on stations and incoherence of train information at Shen-
field.

   1.11. The South East Essex Rail Travellers' Association commented on
the age and condition of the rolling stock, and recommended that ticket
inspection should be more stringent. They were also very concerned about
the level of fares in general and in particular the relative fare levels on
the Essex lines and on those considered to have a superior service. They
were interested in the possibility of alternative methods of control and
financing for the parts of the railway they considered to be potentially
profitable.

   1.12. The Havering Public Transport Action Group also has an interest
in this area although it is specifically concerned with the London—Tilbury
and Southend line. One general aspect of the overall service which interests
the Association is the off-peak. They suggested that a flat fare or free
service late in the evenings and on Sundays would reduce staff costs and
improve the net revenue position.

   1.13. The National Association of Rail Passengers showed us the results
of an exercise carried out by the Federation of Anglian Rail Users Groups
involving recording of trains and a survey of passengers on the Liverpool
Street lines for one week early in 1980. Their results, although not specifi-
cally covering our case studies, lend some support to the general dissatisfac-
tion with the services in Liverpool Street Division.

   1.14. BRB agreed that the lack of suitable passenger information facilities
at Liverpool Street had rightly been the subject of much criticism in the
past, but told us that this problem will be overcome when new train indi-
cators are installed at Liverpool Street later this year. Other major stations
                                     196
were now equipped with teleprinters linked directly to the Liverpool Street
Control but the Board conceded that there was still room for improvement
in the co-ordination of information and speedy advice to the customer.

Financial data
   1.15. Table 2 shows the PP & CCA data for the Liverpool Street—Shen-
field/Southend service for the years 1976-1980. The first part of the table
shows that the service covers its direct costs and makes a substantial contri-
bution to indirect costs. (All the indirect costs of the part of the route
from Southend to Shenfield would be borne by this service; between Shen-
field and London the cost would be shared with the Colchester, Clacton
and East Anglia services.)

TABLE 2. Selected data for Liverpool St—Shenfield/Southend Victoria Services 1976-80
                               1976        1977          7975           1979         1980
                              (£000)      (£000)          £0)
                                                         (00           (£000)       (£000)
Expenses
  Train Working               5,620        6,466         7,895         9,273       10,750
  Terminals                   2,116        2,366         2,323         2,720         3,444
  Total                       7,736        8,832        10,218        11,993       14,194
Earnings                     12,354       14,168        17,090        19,601       22,589
Contribution                  4,618        5,336         6,872         7,608         8,395

Operating Ratio (%)                  63       62            60           61           63

Loaded train miles (000)      2,813         2,907        2,996        2,984         2,994

Per loaded train mile (£)
Expenses
  Train Working                2-00         2-23          2-64         3-11         3-59
  Terminals                    0-75         0-81          0-77         0-91         1-15
  Total                        2-75         3-04          3-41         4-02         4-74
Earnings                       4.39         4-87          5.70         6.57         7.54
Contribution                   1-64         1-83          2-29         2-55         2-80

Passenger miles (millions)     NA          469-9        465-2         493-3        441-7

Per passenger mile (pence)
Expenses
  Train Working                             1-38         1-70          1-88         2-43
  Terminals                                 0-50         0-50          0-55         0-78
  Total                      >- NA          1-88         2-20          2-43         3-21
Earnings                                    3-02         3-67          3-97         5-11
Contribution                                1-14         1-47          1-54         1-90
Source: BRB PP & CCA




Demand structure
   1.16. Passenger journeys in the peak period between Liverpool Street
and Shenf ield fell by 27 per cent between 1971 and 1976-77 and rose slightly
in 1978. Peak period passenger journeys on the Southend service fell by
20 per cent between 1971 and 1976 and then began to rise again.
                                      197
   1.17. The proportion of off-peak travel on these lines is small. On a
weekday about 11 per cent of arrivals at Liverpool Street are in the off-peak;
in 1978 there were about 16,000 peak arrivals and about 2,000 off-peak
arrivals. The volume of weekend business is also small. There are about
3,000 Saturday arrivals at Liverpool Street and 1,300 on Sunday.

   1.18. Demand has fallen less since 1971 on this line than on the
Enfield/Chingford line. Even so the fall in demand between 1971 and 1976
was sizeable and it might be expected that there would have been some
downward revision of the timetable. However, BRB told us that in 1976
the peak hour load factor on the Shenfield services east of Stratford was
132 per cent. On the Southend service it was 87 per cent. The level of
service was kept constant over the first half of the last decade, to reduce
overcrowding. The decline in demand was most marked from the inner
stations.
   1.19. Tables 3-6 show the load factors on the Shenfield/Southend line
trains arriving at Liverpool Street in the peak hour and peak shoulders
on a morning in November 1979. Load factors at Stratford are also shown
to illustrate the importance of Stratford as an interchange and to provide
a better idea of the load factors on the most crowded sectors of the journey.
(The Stratford load factors are for 1978. Any obvious inconsistencies
between these and the Liverpool Street loadings are due to late running
of trains on one of the survey days; booked times rather than actual arrival
times are recorded.)

The Southend service
  1.20. This service included one train starting from Rayleigh and one from
Prittlewell. On the survey day in 1979 one train was cancelled in the pre-
peak shoulder. This train is treated as though it did in fact run, so the
analysis is considering ,load factors on individual trains on a good day.
The load factor on the following Southend train was 88 per cent.

   1.21. Table 3 shows the load factors on the Southend trains.

TABLE 3.     Load Factors—Southend to Liverpool Street trains

Arrival time               Trains           Seats         train   Liverpool St* Stratford^
07.00—08.14                    8             5,580         698        58%          76%
08.15—09.14                   11            10,164         924         71%         92%
09.15—10.00                    3             2,178         726         67%         55%
Source: BRB Terminal Count s

* 1979
t 1978


   1.22. It is clear that peak shoulder trains on this service are rather lightly
loaded. This is particularly important on the longer distance services if
post-peak shoulder trains are not making their second peak trip. Two trains,
the 07.01 from Southend and the 07.21 from Southend, both had load factors
of 110 per cent at Liverpool Street, ie people were standing for at least
32 minutes (from Billericay).
                                             198
The Shenfield service
   1.23. Table 4 shows the load factors on the Shenf ield trains.

TABLE 4.     Load factors—Shenfield to Liverpool Street trains
                                                         Seats per        Load factor
Arrival time                   Trains        Seats         train   Liverpool St* Stratford!
07.00—08.14                      12          6,048          504         76%         89%
08.15—09.14                       6          3,024          504        122%        124%
09.15—10.00                       7          4,191          599         44%    •    72%
Source: BRB Terminal Counts

* 1979
t 1978



The peak loading, even at Liverpool Street, is very high but the post-peak
load factors were rather low. In fact the peak hour for this service is earlier
than the standard peak hour. Of the seven trains arriving between 08.07
and 08.58 six had load factors at Liverpool Street over 100 per cent and
two had load factors over 150 per cent.


  1.24. Travellers from Shenfield, Harold Wood and Brent wood have the
choice of catching fast trains from Colchester or Southend to London. Con-
sequently the slow trains from Shenfield pick up most of their load from
Gidea Park inwards and standing is only likely to occur between Seven
Kings/Ilford and London.




The Gidea Park service
   1.25. Table 5 shows the loadings on the trains starting from Gidea Park.

TABLE 5.   Load factors—Gidea Park to Liverpool Street trains
                                                     Seats per        Load factor
Arrival time                Trains       Seats          train  Liverpool St* Stratford!
07.00—08.14                    2          1,008          504        57%          82%
08.15—09.14                   11          5,776          524        91%         113%
09.15—10.00                    1            504          504        61%          61%
Source: BRB Terminal Counts

* 1979
t 1978



This service is adequately loaded in the peak hour but not in the peak
shoulders. There are three very crowded trains with load factors of 130/140
per cent at Liverpool Street where people are probably standing for over
20 minutes.
                                   199
The Ilford service
   1.26. Table 6 shows the load factors on the trains starting from Ilford.
TABLE 6.   Load factors—Ilford to Liverpool Street trains
                                                        Seats per        Load factor
Arrival time                 Trains        Seats          train   Liverpool St* Stratford!
07.00—08.14                     2           1,008          504         45%         64%
08.15—09.14                     3           1,512          504         65%         82%
09.15—10.00                     1            504           504          6%         33%
Source: BRB Terminal Counts

* 1979
t 1978




   1.27. There are some very crowded trains from Southend, Shenfield and
Gidea Park. On 10 trains in the peak period (up till 08.58 arrival) people
were probably standing for more than 20 minutes. Post-peak shoulder load-
ings on the Shenfield and Ilford services were very low.

Future prospects
   1.28. The population in the catchment area of the innermost part of the
service is forecast to decline over the next 10 years. There is no forecast
for the area between Manor Park and Stratford, but the population of the
area between Ilford and Shenfield is forecast to decline by about 6 per
cent over the years 1981 to 1991. A slight decline is also forecast for the
Southend area. In between, however, is a growth area. Wickford, Billericay
and most areas served by the branch line to Southminster, are forecast
to grow by 5-8 per cent. A new development now in progress at Woodham
Ferrers will increase its 1981 population by 50 per cent.
   1.29. In May 1981 a new service pattern will be introduced on this line
in order to take advantage of the delivery of new Class 315 units and to
adapt to changing travel patterns and market opportunities. Because the
new stock has more seats per vehicle than the present stock, there will
be some reduction in the number of trains. Expected 1981 loadings have
been calculated, assuming constant real fares. These are shown below.
TABLE 7. Expected loadings Liverpool Street —Southend Victoria 1981
Arrival time at
Liverpool Street             Trains           Seats         Passengers        Load factor
07.00—O8. 19                    8             5,068            4,886              96
08.20—09.19                    11             9,128            8,280              91
09.20—10.00                     3             2,608            1,354              52
Source: BRB

TABLE 8. Expected loadings Liverpool Street/Dford/Gidea Park—Shenfield 1980
Arrival time at
Liverpool Street             Trains            Seats        Passengers    Load factor
07.00—08.19                    15              9,540          7,527           79
08.20—09.19                    18             11,448         12,344          108
09.20—10.00                     5              3,180          2,245           71
Source: BRB

                                           200
From a comparison of tables 3 and 7 it can be seen that the new timetable
is expected to raise load factors on the Southend service except in the
post-peak shoulder. Comparing table 8 with a weighted average of the
figures in tables 4, 5 and 6 shows the new timetable will on average raise
the load factors on the Shenfield/Gidea Park/Ilford section of the service
throughout the peak period.


Competition
  1.30. There is no parallel LT line but the Central Line serves the same
area and BRB feel that it is a potential source of competition because tra-
vellers may drive to LT stations. This competition is felt mainly in the
off-peak.

  1.31. There is no motorway to Southend but the A13 is at dual carriage-
way standard and an important source of competition especially at week-
ends and during the weekday off-peak.


Labour supply
   1.32. The Great Eastern inner service is covered by three areas, Liver-
pool Street, Stratford and Shenfield, but Shenfield and Liverpool Street
provide all the passenger guards. Detailed labour figures for Liverpool
Street and Stratford are given in paragraph 2.26. Table 9 below gives the
total figures for the three areas.

TABLE 9.      Staff shortfalls in areas serving the Great Eastern inner lines October 1979
                                                   Establishment Actual Shortfalls
                Passenger terminals                     701        585        17%
                Carriage stabling and servicing         307        266        13%
                Guards                                  388        310        20%
                Signalling                              151         140        7%
                Drivers                                 911        901         1%
Source: BRB

The guard shortfall is most acute and Liverpool Street Division have carried
out a study on recruitment and retention of guards (see paragraph 2.26).
Since October 1979, the actual number of guards employed has risen con-
siderably. There is also a sizeable shortfall of carriage cleaners and booking
clerks.


Quality of service
   1.33. The effect of the shortage of guards shows up in the analysis of
cancellations by cause. Between January and October 1979 there were
20,800 trains booked on the Liverpool Street—Shenfield/Gidea Park service
in peak periods. Of these 2,323 (11 per cent) were cancelled, 1,238 (6 per
cent) because there was no guard available and 519 (2\ per cent) because
of stock failure. In the same period there were 9,328 peak trains booked
to run the service to Southend. Of these 679 (7 per cent) were cancelled,
364 (4 per cent) because there was no guard.
                                   201
   1.34. Tables 10 and 11 show detailed figures for certain aspects of the
quality of the Liverpool Street to Southend service for 1979 and the early
part of 1980 in the morning and evening peak periods respectively. Table
10 shows that on average about half the booked trains arrived on time
and some 70-85 per cent arrived within five minutes of their scheduled
time. The cancellation rate varied between 2 and 8 per cent and was worst
during the May—September period. Shortage of guards was the most fre-
quent cause of cancellation but failure or lack of stock was also signficant.
The proportion of short trains was also quite high.
TABLE 10. Certain aspects of quality of service on Liverpool Street to Southend service in morning peak
                                                 Percentage of trains
                   Arriving                        cancelled due to
                                within         No            No     Failure/             Total     Short
    Month         on time       5 mins        driver        guard   no stock   Other   cancelled   trains

1979
January*             39            81                         -        -        3         4         13
February             49            78            1            2        1        1         5         13
March                49            77                         2        2        -         3          4
April                66            91            1            2        1        -         4          2
May                  58            81                         4        2        2         8          5
June                 56            84            1            1        2        1         5          6
July                 50            82                         2        3        -         5          6
August               48            71                         2        1        1         4          1
September"!'         42            72                         6        1        -         8          8
October              40            71            I            4        1        1         7          8
November             26            69                         1        2        -         2         12
December*            24            69                         2        -        -         3          9

1980
January§             55            84            1            1        2                   3        10
February             48            86                         1        1        1          3        10
March                42            74                         2        1        -          3         5
April                53            85                         4        1        -          6         6
May                  45            76                         2        2        2          6         5
June                 51            82                         3        2        -          5         8
July                 61            83                         1        3        -          4         7
  Source: B R B


  * Weeks including holiday and ASLEF disputes excluded
 '•' Liverpool Streel guards depot on strike 10 September
  + First two weeks
 S Last three weeks
  - Less than 0-5"..


   1.35. Table 11 shows that there was a higher proportion of cancellations
in the evening peak and on average a lower proportion of short trains.
The shortage of guards had more effect in the evening peak then it did
in the morning.

Investment
   1.36. There have recently been improvements made to the stations at
Seven Kings and Chadwell Heath, and to the car parks and station platforms
at Shenfield and Wickford. The overhead line equipment is being converted
to 25Kv in stages between Liverpool Street and Southend Victoria. A new
carriage washing plant will be provided at Southend Victoria this year.
                                                            202
TABLE 1 1 . Certain aspects of quality of service on Liverpool Street to Southend service in evening peak
                                                  Percentage of trains
                     Arriving                       cancelled due to
                            within        No         No       Failure/               Total       Short
   Month       on time 5 mins           driver      guard no stock         Other cancelled trains

1979
January*              41           60             1            6   1        1          8         10
February              62           80             1            6   1        2          9          6
March                 59           77             1            5   2        -          8          3
April 1               65           80                          3   1        1          5          2
May                   53           68                          6   1        7         14          4
June                  59           78                          4   2        -          6          4
July                  61           73                          8   1        3         11          7
August                67           77             1            5   1        1          8          2
Septembert            63           78                          6   2        -          9          2
October               52           75                          7   1        1          9          4
November              55           73             1            6   1        1         10          6
December*             56           75                          4   1        -          5          5
1980
January§              52            80                         3   2        -          5          6
February              61            83                         2   2        1          4          6
March                 60            76                         4   3        1          8          4
April                 35            59                         7   3        1         10          6
May                   56            74                         3   2        2          7          7
June                  56            72                         5   4        3         12          7
July                  66            88            1            1   1        1          3          4
  Source: BRB

   * Weeks including holiday and ASLEF disputes excluded
  '•' Liverpool Street guards depot on strike 10 September
  J First two weeks
 S Last three weeks
 II Derailment at Brentwood 26 April
 - Less than O5%


   1.37. The most significant investment on these lines in the next five years
will be in rolling stock. The 90 three-car Class 306 vehicles operating
between Liverpool Street and Shenfield will be replaced by 61 Class 315
four-car units by 1981. There is also a refurbishment programme over the
years 1981 to 1989 for 800 coaches working out of Liverpool Street and
Fenchurch Street, including all those which work the Southend Victoria
service. The programme includes provision of open saloons, inter-connect-
ing gangways between coaches, new seats, double glazing and a public
address system. The Southend Victoria stock will be the first to be dealt
with under this programme.

   1.38. Other planned investment on this line in the next five years includes
station improvements at Ilford (1981), Wickford (1980), car park improve-
ments at Rayleigh this year and a possible commercial development at Rom-
ford in 1984. The Wickford to Southminster branch line is scheduled for
electrification and resignalling as part of the Anglia electrification project
which has not yet been approved by DTp.

  1.39. Another investment project which would have important conse-
quences for all the Liverpool Street Division services is the possible deve-
lopment of Liverpool Street station and associated resignalling work. It
                                                             203
is proposed to link the reconstruction of the station (to provide new plat-
forms and concourse facilities and better interchange with LT) with a major
commercial property development scheme of shops and offices. The provi-
sion of additional track from Bethnal Green and a greater number of longer
platforms in the new station will overcome the severe bottleneck which
contributes to the unreliability of the present peak service. There would
then be scope for diversion of some extra services to Liverpool Street,
possibly the North London line or the LT East London line. The approaches
to the station would be resignalled and control over the whole Division
would eventually by transferred to a new power box at Stratford. Outline
consent to the planned redevelopment of Liverpool Street and Broad Street
stations was given in March 1979. However the consent included conditions
effectively amounting to the retention of the Western Train Shed, so BR
had to look again at various aspects of their scheme. There has also been
some uncertainty over the liability for development land tax. However,
BR expect that the position on both these issues will be clarified later this
year and that a start will be made on the redevelopment in 1985-86.


                  2. Liverpool Street to Enfield/Chingford

Introduction
  2.1. This''is an Eastern Region inner suburban service and part of the
Liverpool 'Street local service group. The Enfield/Chingford and
Broxbourne/Hertford East/Bishops Stortford services together make up
the ftorth East London section of the service group. The map at paragraph
1.1 of this appendix shows the services from Liverpool Street.

   2.2. The service serves one London terminus, Liverpool Street, and the
areaXjf North "East London within about 10 miles of Liverpool Street. There
are interchanges" with the LT Victoria Line at Seven Sisters on the Enfield
branch and Walthamstow Central on the Chingford branch. For about 3
miles at the Liverpool Street end the route is shared with other North East
London suburban and Inter-City services from Cambridge. South of Bethnal
Green the route is also common to the Southend and Colchester services.

The services .
   2.3. The lines to Enfield and Chingford are electrified and the service
is run with 3-car electric multiple units built in 1959-61.

  2.4. Until May 1980 the basic off-peak service was a twenty minute inter-
val stopping service along both branches into London. During the peak
these services were supplemented to give a total of 14 peak period trains
along each branch. The journey time from Enfield is about 29 minutes
and from Chingford about 22 minutes.

  2.5. These services and others along the North East London lines to
Hertford East, Cheshunt and beyond are worked by guards from the Brox-
bourne area. There has been a shortage of guards in this area for some
                                 204
time; in March 1980 there were 66 guards employed out of an establishment
of 88. This meant that especially during the summer holiday period, there
were many train cancellations. It was recently decided to implement a tem-
porary reduction in the timetable during summer 1980, and to try and solve
the problem of retention of guards with a view to reinstating the full time-
table in October 1980. From 11 May 1980 a total of 11 down trains and
13 up trains along the North East London lines were removed from the
timetable. Of these, 8 down trains and 6 up trains were Enfield/Chingford
trains and 3 others served Seven Sisters on the Enfield branch. The post
evening peak frequency was reduced from 3 trains an hour to 2 trains an
hour on both lines.

   2.6. Since the hew timetable came in there has been a marked improve-
ment in reliability and punctuality. There have been about 50 complaints
from passengers whose trains were amongst those suspended, and about
half related to the loss of one particular train'which caused unforeseen
problems. BRB have found a way of effectively reinstating this train without
requiring another guard.


Evidence from commuter associations
   2.7. Evidence was invited from three commuter associations representing
travellers on the Enfield and Chingford services: The Chingford Line Com-
muter Association, the Bush Hill Park Ratepayers Association and the Lea
Valley Eastern Region Action Group at Enfield. The Sawbridgeworth and
Harlow Mill Association of Rail Passengers (SHARP) volunteered evidence.
Although these two stations are not on the case study routes (they are
on the Broxbourne section of the North East London lines) their services
share the route with the Chingford/Enfield trains at the Liverpool Street
end of the lines. As their line was also affected by the temporary timetable
reduction, we have included their views at paragraph 2.12. We have simi-
larly included evidence volunteered by the Harlow Town Commuters
Association on the grounds that some of the Harlow Town trains serve
the Enfield branch between Liverpool Street and Lower Edmonton.

  2.8. The Chingford Line Commuter Association. The Association was
formed in September 1979 as a result of the very poor rail service provided
during summer 1979. They are critical of:
    (i) passenger facilities—lack of information at Liverpool Street, Bethnal
        Green, Clapton and Hackney Downs, decrepit stations and delays
        at ticket barriers;
   (ii) dirty rolling stock;
  (iii) unco-operative staff at some stations;
  (iv) cancellations of trains (under the 1979-80 timetable);
   (v) poor time-keeping;
  (vi) little practical response from BRB to the Association's suggestions;
 (vii) poor comparison with LT stations and service.
                                    205
   2.9. In response to their criticism BRB have told us that the situation
at Liverpool Street should be vastly improved by the installation of a new
electronic indicator system on which work is about to begin. They do not
accept that the stations on the Chingford branch itself are in a bad state
of repair since four of them have just been refurbished but have explained
that work on the inner stations and Walthamstow Central is held up for
lack of finance. They agree that the rolling stock does give an unfavourable
impression and have taken steps to improve matters. Compartment screens
within the train sets are being removed in an effort to reduce vandalism,
and they are putting extra resources into cleaning in spite of the current
severe constraints on expenditure. They feel that the supervisory staff
generally do the best job possible but on occasion the extent of the problem
overwhelms the supervisory and control mechanism.

  2.10. The Board point out that cancellations have been reduced following
the recent temporary timetable reduction (see paragraph 2.31). Management
devote a considerable amount of time to liaison with commuter associations
and aim to see that practical results ensue. They accept that comparison
with the LT system is likely to generate dissatisfaction but feel that the
comparison is inappropriate, since the visual impact of a new line, such
as the Victoria Line, is bound to increase the dissatisfaction of BR pas-
sengers with their older rolling stock and stations.

   2.11. Bush Hill Park Ratepayers Association. The main area of criticism
from the Association relates to the level of cancellations but they are also
worried about short trains, lack of communication, the condition of the
rolling stock and the poor facilities at Seven Sisters station (see paragraph
2.32). They have been very concerned about the shortage of guards which
led to the timetable reduction described in paragraph 2.5.

  2.12. SHARP. The Association was formed in October 1978 as a result
of worsening travelling conditions on the Bishops Stortford and Liverpool
Street line. Their criticisms relate to lack of consultation on timetable
changes, poor rolling stock, lack of incentive for people to become guards
because of their limited prospects in BRB, and lack of financial information.
  2.13. BRB have replied that on the general question of consultation the
only relevant timetable revision is that of May 1980 since the Association
did not exist when the timetable was last changed in late 1978. The principle
of train reduction to minimise the effect of the shortage of guards was
discussed with commuter associations before May 1980, although there was
no detailed consultation regarding individual trains. The timetable change
was planned very quickly and many options were examined in detail by
BRB's planning staff. Detailed consultation was not possible within the
very tight timescale. The Board have also pointed out that services to Saw-
bridge worth and Harlow Mill were not affected by the May 1980 timetable
revision. Regarding the condition of the rolling stock on these services BRB
have drawn attention to the refurbishment programme. They agree that
the condition of the stock is unsatisfactory. Vandalism is partly to blame
but cleaning will be improved when additional cleaning machines, now near-
ing completion, are introduced.
                                    206
   2.14. On the question of the career structure for guards we have de-
scribed at paragraph 5.17 of the Report the work carried out in the Liverpool
Street Division on the recruitment and retention of guards. The Board hope
they are beginning to solve some of the problems but admit that the career
structure for guards is not at present an inviting prospect. However, in
their recent document 'Challenge of the 80s' setting out their ideas on the
potential for productivity increases, BRB have suggested altering drivers'
and guards' career structure in such a way as to provide enhanced career
prospects by creating a new grade of trainman which would provide avenues
of promotion to driver and to another new grade of train conductor.

   2.15. Harlow Town Commuters Association. The Association carried out
a survey during one week in June 1980, ie about a month after the introduc-
tion of the new timetable on the North East London lines. During that
week about 27 per cent of trains were cancelled, compared with the results
of previous similar surveys which had shown 12 or 13 per cent. There
was also a great deal of overcrowding. The Association did, however, note
that the condition of the interior of the stock had improved, trains were
cleaner and fewer had damaged fittings.

  2.16. BRB's reply gave complete punctuality figures for the North East
London lines showing that taken overall punctuality had improved over
the last year. They agreed that the level of overcrowding was unsatisfactory.
The position on the guard shortage had improved since the May 1980 time-
table revision; there were 12 more guards working in the Division than
at the same time in 1979 and there were 70 in training. It was therefore
hoped that the full service on the North East London lines would be rein-
stated in October 1980.

  2.17. The Lea Valley Action Group did not submit any evidence.

Financial data
  2.18. Table 1 below shows the PP & CCA data for the Enfield/Chingford
service from 1976 to 1980. The first part of the table shows that the service
did not cover its direct expenses in any of the years shown. Loaded train
miles were budgeted to rise by 28 per cent in 1978. In 1975 a plan was
put forward to reduce the off-peak frequency from 20 minutes to 30 minutes
and the 1976 and 1977 figures reflect the anticipated effects of this change.
However, the plan was not implemented, but because PP & CCA figures
are prepared well in advance, this fact could not be incorporated until the
1978 budget was finalised. The apparent increase in loaded train miles in
1978 does not therefore represent a timetable alteration. The effects of
the present temporary timetable reduction have not been included in the
1980 budget, again because the budget figures were prepared before the
timetable revision was agreed.

Demand structure
   2.19. Passenger journeys on these lines fell by 35 per cent between 1971
and 1977 and have stayed approximately constant since then. BRB have
told us that there is no significant seasonal variation in the flow and that
                                '   207
TABLE 1.   Selected data for Liverpool St—Enfield/Chingford Services 1976-80
                                 1976        1977          7975         7979   1980
                                (00
                                 £0)        (00
                                              £0)          (00
                                                            £0)         (00
                                                                         £0)    £0)
                                                                               (00
Expenses
  Train Working                1,496        1,438        1,883        2,215    2,650
  Terminals                    1,240        1,249        1,485        1,625    2,046
  Total                       2,736        2,687        3,368         3,840    4,696
Earnings                       1,961       2,115        2,822         3,337    4,021
Contribution                    (775)       (572)         (546)        (503)    (675)
Operating Ratio (%)             140          127           119          115      117

Loaded train miles (000)       869          732          934           937      932
Per loaded train mile (£)
Expenses
  Train Working                1-72         1-96         2-01         2-36     2-84
  Terminals                    1-43         1-71         1-59          1-74    2-20
  Total                        3-15         3-67         3-60         4-10     5-04
Earnings                       2-26         2-89         3-02          3-56     4-32
Contribution                  (0-89)       (0-78)       (0-58)        (0-54)   (0-72)

Passenger miles (millions)     NA           55-0         53-8         60-0     62-1

Per passenger mile (pence)
Expenses
  Train Working                             2-62         3-50          3-69    4-27
  Terminals                                 2-27         2-76          2-71    3-29
  Total                >•      NA           4-89         6-26          6-40    7-56
Earnings                                    3-85          5-25         5-56    6-48
Contribution                               (1-04).       (1-01)       (0-84)   d-05)

  Source: BRB PP & CCA




most travel is to and from London. Twenty-two per cent of Liverpool Street
arrivals from the Chingford line are off-peak travellers; on the Enfield line
this proportion is 34 per cent.

   2.20. Demand on these services over the last decade has been affected
by the opening of the Victoria Line. There was a major reconstruction
of the service in 1968-69 when the peak trains were reduced from 10-12
per hour to 6, and the service was further reduced in 1974 when the peak
interval was increased from 10 minutes to 12 minutes. Another recasting
of the timetable, planned for 1976, was not implemented because of consul-
tation difficulties.

   2.21. Table 2 shows the average load factors on the Enfield trains arriving
at Liverpool Street in the peak hour and peak shoulders on one morning
in November 1979 before the new timetable was introduced.
                                            ,208
TABLE 2.    Load factors on Enfield trains
                                                                          Load factor
Arrival time                   Trains        Seats     Seats/train Liverpool St*   Seven
                                                                                  Sisters^
07.00—08.14                      6           3,264        544           22%         30%
08.15—09.14                      5           2,720        544           58%         75%
09.15—10.00                      3           1,360        453           34%         39%
 Source: BRB Terminal Counts

 •1979
 t 1978

The table shows that the load factors were low even in the peak hour.
The lowest Liverpool Street load factor on an Enfield train was 6 per cent
(the 06.37 arriving at 07.06) and the highest 71 per cent on the 08.19 arriving
at 08.45.

  2.22. Similar data for the Chingford trains are given in Table 3.

TABLE 3.    Average load factors on Chingford trains
                                                                          Load factor
                                                                                 Walthamstow
Arrival time                   Trains        Seats     Seats/train Liverpool St*     C.t
07.00—08.14                      5           3,264        653           30%          33%
08.15—09.14                      5           3,264        653           96%          91%
09.15—10.00                      3           1,904        635          41%          49%
 Source: BRB Terminal Counts

 •1979
 t 1978


The service as a whole almost met the PBSS planning targets (see Table
9.7 of paragraph 9.33 of the report) for the peak hour but again was very
lightly loaded on the peak shoulders. Load factors at Liverpool Street on
the Chingford trains ranged from 15 per cent to 115 per cent; there were
two trains with load factors of 100 per cent or above in the peak hour.

  2.23. Since the May timetable revision Eastern Region have carried out
passenger counts and report a considerable amount of short distance stand-
ing.

Future
  2.24. The population of the inner London areas served by the Enfield/
Chingford line is forecast to fall between 1981 and 1991 by 2 or 3 per
cent on the Chingford side and by 10 per cent on the Enfield side. Only
the Enfield area itself, where the borough policy is to foster new industrial
and commercial development, is forecast to have a rising population in
the next decade.

  2.25. The North East London lines are due for their next review in 1982.
This will be the first of a cycle of more fundamental timetable reviews
taking place in the Liverpool Street Division. It is basically an extension
of the existing three year review process (see paragraph 9.49 of the report)
                                             209
and will include a simplification of service pattern with greater regularity
and further slight reduction in inner service capacity.

Competition
   2.26. The Victoria line provides a fast route for those passengers travel-
ing to the West End; commuters to the City tend to travel by BRB trains
into Liverpool Street. Peak travel by car into London is severely con-
strained by congestion and parking restrictions.

Labour supply
   2.27. The North East London services are covered by Broxbourne,
Liverpool Street and Stratford Areas (but Stratford provides guards for
freight only) and the figures for establishments and actual staff numbers
in these areas are shown in Table 4.
TABLE 4. Staff numbers at Broxbourne, Stratford and Liverpool Street, October 1979
E = establishments
A = actual
                                   Broxbourne           Stratford          Liverpool St
                                   E         A        E           A        E          A
Passenger terminals              367        272       —                   356       288
                                                                  —
Carriage stabling & servicing      27        24       —           —       175        139
Guards                             88        59      115          83      131        102
Signalling                        103        89        34         30        56        54
Drivers                           122       115      687         678       —          —
 Source: BRB



   2.28. In each case the shortfall of guards is worse than the shortfalls
in all the other categories and ranges from 22 to 32 per cent. The Liverpool
Street Division have carried out a special study on recruitment and retention
of guards as mentioned in paragraph 2.14. The shortfall of guards has eased
considerably since October 1979. In July 1980 there were 69 guards
employed at Broxbourne depot and 113 at Liverpool Street.

Quality of service
   2.29. The importance of the shortage of guards for the Enfield/Chingford
service is brought out in the analysis of cancellations by cause. Between
January and October 1979 there were 11,648 booked trains in the morning
and evening peaks on the Enfield/Chingford lines. Of these 1,218 (10 per
cent) were cancelled, 983 (8 per cent) because there was no guard. The
situation is now improving as a result of the reduced timetable and increased
recruitment of guards.
   2.30. Tables 5 and 6 give an analysis of the punctuality and reliability
of the Enfield/Chingford service in the morning and evening peaks respec-
tively for 1979 and the early part of 1980. In the morning peak over this
period about 50 per cent of booked trains arrived on time and 80-90 per
cent arrived within 5 minutes of scheduled time. Cancellations rose to 9-10
                                    210
per cent during the summer of 1979 with shortage of guard being the most
frequent cause of cancellation. In the evening peak the cancellation rate
is higher than in the morning; this is because guards are more willing to
cover early turns than late turns when there are shortages of guards. It
is also clear that short trains are a frequent occurrence (the measure used
here is incomplete because it notes only the existence of a short train rather
than the proportion of scheduled stock provided). It can be seen that the
criticisms of the commuter associations at paragraphs 2.7 to 2.27 regarding
the high level of cancellations during 1979 and the large number of short
trains are borne out by this information.


TABLE 5. Quality of service on Liverpool Street—Enfield/Chingford service in morning peak
                                            Percentage of trains
                  Arriving                    cancelled due to
                         within      No        No      Failure/              Total     Short
   Month    on time 5 mins          driver    guard no stock      Other cancelled trains

1979
January*              43            88                         1           2    4       4
February              41            82                         4           2    6      12
March                 53            92                         1     -          2       4
April                 54            90                         5     1          6       4
May                   52            84                         6     1     1    7       6
June                  52            89                         4           1    5       3
July                  49            83             2           6     - '   1    9      12
August                50            81             1           9     1         10       4
Septembert            52            82             1           8     -          9      11
October               42            87      .      1           6     -     -    7       6
November              31            83                         5     -     _    5       6
December^             32            82                         3     -          4       6

1980
January^              57            91                           4   -          4        5
February              55            93                           2   -          2        3
March                 26            83                           8   1          9        4
April                 46            86                           1   1          2        2
May                   22            78                           5   1     4   10        8
June                  46            93                           -   1          2        7
July                  50            94             1             1         1    3       10
 Source: BRB

 * Weeks including holiday and ASLEF disputes excluded
  1
    10 September Liverpool Street guards depot strike (incl)
 £ First 2 weeks
 i Last 3 weeks
 - Less than 0-5"{,




   2.31. Since the introduction of the reduced timetable in May 1980 the
percentage of cancellations due to there being no guard has fallen, expe-
cially in the evening peak. Comparing the June and July figures for 1979
and 1980, the evening peak cancellations for lack of a guard have fallen
from 15-21 per cent to about 1 per cent and the percentage of total trains
cancelled from 16-24 per cent to 2 or 3 per cent.
                                                           211
TABLE 6.     Quality of service on Liverpool Street—Enfield/Chingford service in evening peak
                                                Percentage of trains
                      Arriving                    cancelled due to
                                  within         No             No        Failure/             Total      Short
   Month           on time        5 mins        driver         guard      no stock   Other   cancelled    trains

1979
January*               54           75             -             3           j        _           5        14
February              62            82             1             5           2        1           8         8
March                 75            87             2             6                    2           9         5
April                 70            84             -             9           1                   10         2
May                   77            85             3             7           1                   10         7
June                  61            72             1            15                     1         16         3
July                  51            67             2            21                     1         24        10
August                61            75             -            15           -                   16         4
Septembert            56            72             1            20           1                   22         4
October               58            74             2            15           -                   17         3
November              61            79             1            11           -        -          13         3
December:?            59            77             -            13           -                   14         8

1980
January!              48            70             1            15                    2          17         1
February              64            82             -             6           _        i           8         2
March                 73            83             1             8           -                    9         3
April                 59            79             2             4           _        2           8         3
May                   76            93             1             2           1        5           9         7
June                  75            92             1             1           1        1           3         7
July                  82            96             -             -           1        1           2         6
 Source: BRB

  * Weeks including holiday and ASLEF disputes excluded
 '< 10 September Liverpool Street guards depot strike (incl)
  ^ First 2 weeks
 >} Last 3 weeks
 - Less than 0-5%



   2.32. Table 7 compares for the Division as a whole, time-keeping figures
for 1975 and 1979. It indicates a substantial deterioration in quality over
this period, although BRB have told us that the 1980 figures are showing
a substantially improved picture.
TABLE 7.       Liverpool Street Division timekeeping
                                        Less than 5                      6-30          30+
                        Trains run       mins late                     mins late     mins late        Cancelled
1975                       100%            93%                           3%             —                3%
1979                       100%            80%                           9%             —               10%
 Source: BRB

Investment
  2.33. The lines were electrified (6-25 Kv overhead) in 1959-61. The
Enfield and Chingford branches are in the process of being converted to
25 Kv.
  2.34. Most of the stations on the branches have been partly reconstructed
or refurbished since 1973, and station improvements at Hackney Downs
and Seven Sisters are planned for 1980. The improvements to Walthamstow
                                                               212
Central previously planned for 1982 have been delayed to 1985 due to finan-
cial cutbacks. Two new carriage washing machines are planned, one at
Chingford and one at Enfield.



                        3. Great Northern Electrics

Introduction
  3.1. Great Northern Electrics (GNE) consist of the Kings Cross Inner
Suburban service and the Kings Cross Outer Suburban service and these
two services together with the Kings Cross to Peterborough service make
up the London Kings Cross Local Service Group. The Kings Cross Outer
Suburban service runs from Kings Cross to Cambridge via Welwyn Garden
City and Royston. The Kings Cross Inner Suburban service runs from
Moorgate to Welwyn Garden City and Hertford North/Letchworth.
   3.2. The services run through North London and Hertfordshire and the
Outer Suburban service runs into Cambridgeshire. Peterborough trains, In-
ter-City, freight and parcel trains all use the route via Welwyn Garden
City, sharing that route between Welwyn Garden City and Finsbury Park
with both the Inner and Outer Suburban services and between Welwyn
Garden City and Hitchin with the Outer Suburban service. Inner Suburban
trains to Hertford North are extended to Letchworth to form an all day
hourly service (see map at Figure 1 on page 214).
  3.3. There are several interchanges with LT services as follows:
     Finsbury Park—Piccadilly, Victoria
     Kings Cross—Piccadilly, Victoria, Northern, Circle, Metropolitan
                    (outer service only)
     Highbury—Victoria (inner service only)
     Moorgate—Northern, Circle, Metropolitan (inner service only)
There are bus stops and bus stations located outside or close to most of
the railway stations.

The services
   3.4. Outer Suburban.The line from Kings Cross to Royston (45 miles)
is electrified on the 25Kv overhead wire system. The service is operated
with 26 four-car Class 312 electric multiple units built in 1977-78. The line
between Royston and Cambridge is not electrified and is operated with a
two-car diesel multiple unit shuttle service designed to connect with the
London service from Royston.

   3.5. The peak service is not run at regular intervals. It consists of 13
trains from Royston to Kings Cross with varied stopping patterns; the slow-
est stop at all stations to Hatfield, then Potters Bar and Finsbury Park
and the fastest stop only at Letchworth, Hitchin and Stevenage. There
are four Cambridge to Royston trains to connect with these peak trains.
                                    213
                                  FIGURE 1
               Great Northern Electrics




                                            Foxton
                                                                Liverpool St
                                     Shepreth

                                                ' Meldreth
      Peterborough I                          Royston

                                        Ashwell & Morden
                                   "Baldock

                                  Letchworth
                       - f Hitchin

                       -. • Stevenage

         Knebworth     • •*•

      Welwyn North     ••

Welwyn Garden City     _._
                                                        •    Hertford North
          Hatfield     . .
                                                        ., Bayford
                            - Brookraan's Park
                                                             Cuffley
       Potters Bar
                                                            . Crews Hill

                               Hadley Wood
                                                             Gordon Hill
                               New Barnet
                                                            . Enfield Chase
                               Oakleigh Park

                               New Southgate         Grange Park
                                                Winchmore Hill




                       - - Finsbury Park

                                    __ Dray ton Park
                                             Highbury & Islington
                                                 Essex Road
                                                      Old Street



               King's Cross


 Source: BRB



                                      214
In the off-peak there are three trains each hour from Royston: a half hourly
semi-fast train and a hourly fast train. The hourly shuttle service from
Cambridge is timed to connect at Royston with both a fast and and a semi-
fast service. The Saturday service is the same as the weekday off-peak
and the Sunday service is similar but without the hourly fast train.
  3.6. Journey times are as follows:
           Mow                                  Peak        Off-Peak
                                               (mins)       (mins)
           Kings Cross—Royston                 50/63         50/63
           Kings Cross—Welwyn Garden City      22/24          24
           Kings Cross—Stevenage               22/36        22/36
           Kings Cross—Hitchin                 31/41         31/42
           Kings Cross—Letchworth              37/47        37/47
           Stevenage—Letchworth                  10           10
           Stevenage—Welwyn Garden City          11            11
           Royston—Letchworth                   13/15       13/15
           Welwyn Garden City—Hatfield            3             3
Service frequency was improved and journey times were reduced when
the electrified service was introduced in February 1978; the off-peak fre-
quency doubled.
   3.7. Inner Suburban. This service has exclusive use of the section of track
from Moorgate to Finsbury Park, which uses the third rail electrification
system between Moorgate and Dray ton Park. North of Finsbury Park it
runs on the two slow line tracks to Welwyn Garden City and two tracks
via Hertford North to rejoin the main line at Langley Junction between
Knebworth and Stevenage. The rolling stock used is the Class 313 sliding-
door three car unit which can run from both the 25 Kv overhead and the
750v third rail system (there is an automatic changeover at Dray ton Park).
The stock was built in 1976-77.
  3.8. The peak service is not a regular interval service. There are 21 trains
from Welwyn Garden City to London arriving in the peak period, and,
down the Hertford branch, 18 form Hertford North and two from Gordon
Hill. There is a twenty minute interval off-peak service on each branch
with one train an hour via Hertford North being extended to Letchworth.
   3.9. Journey times are as follows:
           How                                   Peak        Off-Peak
                                                (mins)      (mins)
           Moorgate—Welwyn Garden City            33          42
                                              (fastest)
           Moorgate—Hertford North                40          44
                                              (fastest)
           Moorgate—Finsbury Park                 10         10
           Moorgate—Wood Green                   15/17      15/17
           Moorgate—Palmers Green                17/21       21
           Moorgate—Gordon Hill                 25/29        30
           Moorgate—New Barnet                    22         22
           Moorgate—Potters Bar                  22/28       28
           Palmers Green—Hertford North         21/23        24
           Hertford North—Stevenage                11        11
           New Barnet—Welwyn Garden City          17         17
           New Barnet—Potters Bar                   6         6
           Hatfield—Welwyn Garden City              4         4
The electrified service was introduced in November 1976.
                                   215
Evidence from Commuter Associations
   3.10. Evidence was invited from the relevant commuter associations. The
Hatfield Association of Rail Travellers and the Potters Bar Commuters
Association, both of which are concerned with the Inner and Outer Sub-
urban services, submitted evidence. The Hertford North Rail Users Associ-
ation and the Islington InterSoc Transport Group sent in submissions
relating to the Inner service. The Harringay and Hornsey Railway Users
Group did not submit any evidence.

   3.11. The Hatfield Association of Rail Travellers were very critical of
frequent cancellations and lateness experienced on the Inner Suburban ser-
vice. They objected to the premium loading of fares while BRB are not
providing the service promised before electrification and pointed out that
it is now almost more economical to drive to work, for those people who
work north of the river. They also criticised the siting of the facilities at
Hatfield station.
   3.12. However, they did have some praise for BRB. They described the
Outer Suburban service as very reliable. They were satisfied with the new
trains which they said were smoother running with smooth acceleration,
and 'remarkably clean'.
   3.13. BRB accept that reliability of the Inner Suburban services has been
most unsatisfactory, because of rolling stock design problems, compounded
to some extent by train crew shortages. The position was further aggravated
earlier this year by the 'blacking' by guards of units fitted with radio equip-
ment. The latter problem has now been resolved, and the design problems
are gradually being overcome, but the cancellation rate remains at about
3-5 per cent of peak services, with a number of failures in traffic. BRB
are now approaching a situation where about 90 per cent of the Inner Sub-
urban services arrive within five minutes of the right time.
  3.14. BRB consider that Hatfield station, which has been rebuilt fairly
recently, is basic and adequate. Incorporation into the rebuilding project
of the Association's ideas on siting and layout would have increased the
cost considerably.
  3.15. The Potters Bar Commuters Association mentioned four main areas
of criticism which they had discussed with BRB:
    (i) Frequent cancellations of Inner Suburban services.
   (ii) Royston services no longer calling at Potters Bar to cover cancella-
        tions.
  (iii) Lack of direct service to Kings Cross from Potters Bar.
  (iv) Poor quality of train information when things go wrong, especially
        at Finsbury Park, Highbury and Islington and Kings Cross.
  3.16. The Association was assured that BRB and the manufacturers'
engineers were working hard to try to solve the problems with the class
313 stock, some of which had only become apparent after an extensive
period of operation. BRB agreed to reconsider the possibility of stopping
                                     216
some of the Royston trains at Potters Bar when there were cancellations
and said they planned to include a direct service between Potters Bar and
Kings Cross in the May 1981 timetable. On the subject of train information
BRB said that the equipment and procedures for giving information to pas-
sengers were complex but they were now more effective. They accepted
that further improvements were required (see paragraph 3.18).

   3.17. The Hertford North Rail Users' Association was critical of BRB's
timetabling process which they described as rigid, fixed too early before
it comes into use and resting on no market research. They were happy
with the cleanliness of the new Inner Suburban stock but pointed out
mechanical faults which lead at the least to irritation and at the most to
cancellation of the train. They also criticised the adequacy of the public
information system.

   3.18. BRB said that the structure of the timetable for 1981 was currently
under review, and that all external organisations, including commuter
groups, had received copies of the proposals for their comments. The pro-
posals should lead to a better structure of service for the Hertford North
line. Whilst BRB recognise that there is a demand for rail travel between
Hertford and Stevenage, one of the points made by the Hertford Associ-
ation (see paragraph 3.17), it is also the case that any service changes need
to be determined by the relationship between additional service costs and
extra revenue generated. BRB were confident that the proposals for 1981
would meet demand. Concerning the use of market research for timetable
planning they commented that there was an inevitable conflict of interests
between commuters from different stations. Both the reliability of the ser-
vice and the adequacy of the public information system were problems
which they were tackling. Evidence was already available that reliability
had recently improved and the quality of information when services were
disrupted had also improved. The contact with London Transport had been
strengthened to ensure that advance information about BRB service alte-
rations was available to travellers at short notice. However, they felt that
improvement might still be possible at Finsbury Park.

  3.19. The Islington InterSoc Transport Group made the general point
that BR tended to neglect the Inner City traveller compared with the Outer
Suburban. They also made the specific criticism that whereas the former
LT Northern City underground line provided a regular shuttle service
between Finsbury Park and Moorgate, the new BR service on that line
was unreliable and the valuable reliable rail link into the City had been
lost.
  3.20. BR felt that investment in GNE had benefited the Inner London
area, in terms of improved quality of service and modernisation of stations.
Reliability of the Finsbury Park—Moorgate section had improved, and in
fact the rail link to the City has been strengthened, with much wider journey
opportunities for Inner City residents. They also pointed out that the present
peak service was double the frequency of the previous shuttle from Drayton
Park to Moorgate.
                                    217
Financial data
   3.21. Tables 1 and 2 show the PP & CCA data from 1976-1980 for the
Outer and Inner services respectively. In interpreting these figures it must
be remembered that they are budget estimates, prepared about six months
before the year for which they are relevant. This is particularly important
in the consideration of services where large changes have taken place, such
as an electrification scheme.
   3.22. Outer Suburban. The figures include the financial results of two
different types of service—the electric service to Royston and the diesel
shuttle to Cambridge. The electric service to Royston was introduced in
1978. The effect of the latter, with its higher frequency and faster services,
is immediately obvious from the figures which show that the operating ratio
was expected to improve from 106 in 1978 to 72 in 1979, ie that the service
would begin to make a positive contribution to indirect costs in 1979. It
must also be remembered, however, that disruption prior to the introduction
of the electrified service might have artificially increased the operating ratio.



TABLE 1 .   Selected data for King's Cross to Royston & Royston to Cambridge services 1976-80
                                 7976          1977         1978        7979           1980
                                  £0)
                                 (00            £0)
                                               (00          £0)
                                                           (00          £0)
                                                                       (00             £0)
                                                                                      (00
Expenses
  Train Working                 1,775        2,154         2,908        3,139        3,617
  Terminals                       591          608          988         1,134        1,404
  Total                         2,366        2,762         3,896        4,273        5,021
Earnings                        2,308        2,603         3,668        5,919        8,822
Contribution                      (58)        (159)         (228)       1,646        3,801
Operating Ratio (%)               102          106           106          72            57
Loaded train miles (000)         917         1,160         1,847        1,862         1,873
Per loaded train mile (£)
      i
Expenses
  Train Working                 1-94          1-86         1-57          1-68         1-93
  Terminals                     0-64          0-52         0-54          0-61         0-75
  Total                         2-58          2-38         2-11          2-29         2-68
Earnings                        2-52          2-24         1-99          3-18         4-71
Contribution                    (0-06)       (0-14)       (0-12)         0-89         2-03

Passenger miles (millions)       NA           78-9         92-6         138-0        175-3

Per passenger mile (pence)
Expenses
  Train Working                               2-73         3-14          2-28         2-06
  Terminals                                   0-77         1-07          0-82         0-80
                                 N
  Total                   Y          A        3.50         4-21          3-10         2-86
Earnings                                      3-30         3-96          4-29         5-03
Contribution                                 (0-20)       (0-25)         1-19         2-17

  Source: BRB PI> & CCA

                                              218
TABLE 2.   Selected data for King's Cross to Welwyn Garden City and Hertford North 1976-80
                                1976          1977        1978         7979         1980
                                (00
                                 £0)          £0)
                                           . (00          £0)
                                                         (00            £0)
                                                                      (00            £0)
                                                                                    (00
Expenses
  Train Working                2,536        3,327        4,719        5,635        6,209
  Terminals                    1,005        1,089        1,232        1,642        1.948
  Total                        3,541        4,416        5,951        7,277        8,157
Earnings                       2,374        2,485        3,817        4,364       5,309
Contribution                  (1,167)      0,931)       (2,134)      (2,913)       288
                                                                                  (,4)

Operating Ratio (%)             149           178          156          167          154

Loaded train miles (000)       1,207        1,964        1,995        2,122        2,177

Per loaded train mile (£)
Expenses
  Train Working                2-10         1-69          2-36         2-66         2-85
  Terminals                    0-83         0-56          0-62         0-77         0-90
  Total                        2-93         2-25          2-98         3-43         3-75
Earnings                       1-97          1-27         1-91         2-06         2-44
Contribution                  (0-96)        (0-98)       (1-07)       (1-37)       (1-31)

Passenger miles (millions)      NA          73-2          86-9         87-5         80-6

Per passenger mile (pence)
Expenses
  Train Working                             4-54          5-43         6-44         7-70
  Terminals                                 1-49          1-42         1-88         2-42
  Total                >-       NA          6-03          6-85         8-32        10-12
Earnings                                     3-39         4-39         4.99         6-59
Contribution                                (2-64)       (2-46)       (3-33)       (3-53)
 Source: BRB PP & CCA




  3.23. Passenger miles are forecast to grow by a further 27 per cent in
1980. Although BRB's business has been growing over the last two years,
the electrification has obviously produced a sizeable increase in traffic,
particularly in local journeys. The Board have told us that there is some
switching of traffic between the Kings Cross and Liverpool Street services
to Cambridge when there are differential changes in the quality of the
services.
  3.24. Inner Suburban. The electrified service was introduced in 1976
when the operating ratio was budgeted to improve from 235 in 1975 to
149 in 1976. However it is not clear how much of the eventual slippage
of the investment programme was anticipated at the time the 1976 budget
was prepared. The operating ratio of 167 in 1979 reflects the higher costs
of six-car working in the off-peak (see paragraph 11.29 of the report).

   3.25. Loaded train miles increased by about 60 per cent in 1977 mostly
because of the increases in the off-peak frequency introduced with the
full electric service. Loaded train miles rose again in 1978 when the electric
                                     219
service from Hertford to Letch worth was introduced and in 1979 when
the Hertford to Stevenage service was improved (some peak trains were
also removed in that year).

   3.26. Passenger miles were budgeted to fall in 1980. However, so far
this year, total passenger miles on this service are 20 per cent above the
corresponding figure for last year so the budgeted figure may turn out to
have been pessimistic.

Financial effects of electrification
   3.27. BR have also provided us with some actual financial data on GNE.
Table 3 shows the actual effect on the revenue account of the service in
its second full year of operation (1979). It also compares the 1980 budget
with the investment submission forecast for the third year of operation.

TABLE 3. Effect of electrification on revenue account*
£000, mid-1979 prices                           2nd full year                                3rd full year
                                          submission       actual                      submission      budget
                                           forecast         1979                        forecast        1980
Earnings                                    12,542        11,594                         13,062        12,364
Expenses:
  Train crews                                1,739         2,212                           1,739           2,215
  Fuel                                         957         2,238                           1,006            2,097
  Stock maintenance                          1,259         2,631                           1,399           2,316
  —service and cleaning                        400           385                            400               434
  Terminals                                    579           323                             597              405
  Structures maintenance                       779           494                            779               552

    Sub-total                                           5,713            8,283             5,902           8,019
Outlay                                                   260               260               —               —
Depreciation/amortisation                               1,800            1,800             1,800           1,800

     Total                                              7,773           10,343             7,702           9,819

Margin of earnings over
 direct costs                                           4,769             1,251            5,360            2,545

  'These figures cannot be reconciled with those in Tables 1 and 2 because the latter include the diesel shuttle service
between Royston and Cambridge.




  3.28. The difference between the actual and forecast margin represents
an increase in the PSO claim compared with expectation but these figures
do not show the total effect of the project on the claim because they do
not include interest charges.

Demand structure
   3.29. On the Outer Suburban service the current level of commuting to
Central London is about 5,500 each way per day, of whom some 1,500
interchange at Finsbury Park to London Transport and other BRB services.
Electrification of the service has resulted in a growth in commuting of
around 30 per cent.
                                                         220
   3.30. On the Inner Suburban service the current level of commuting to
Central London is 12,000 per day. Of those, 2,100 alight at Finsbury Park
and 3,600 at Highbury. The number of commuters has grown by 32 per
cent since electrification.
   3.31. Table 4 shows the changes in commuter traffic from the Hertford-
shire stations since 1971. At this level of disaggregation the data are very
variable but there appear to have been considerable increases in commuting
from some stations, eg Royston, Hatfield and Letchworth. There have also
been significant increases at some of the Inner stations, particularly on
the Eastern branch between Gordon Hill and Hornsey.
TABLE 4.     Boardings on London-bound peak trains—1971-1979 Hertfordshire
                           1971     1974     1975     1976     1977      1978                1979
Cuffley                         850         760          780         750    730     840      750
Bayford                          60          50           70          50     60      70       60
Hertford North                  530         580          670         550    620     800      780

Hertford Branch               1,440       1,390        1,520       1,350   1,410   1,710    1,590

Potters Bar                  2,040        1,700        1,620       1,540   1,470   1,710    1,770
Brookmans Park                 490          450          440         460     420     500      500
Hatfield                       570          710          730         690     760     910      900
WelwynGC                     1,090        1,100        1,120       1,110   1,120   1,290    1,390

Main Line, Inner             4,190        3,960       3,910        3,800   3,770   4,410   4,560

Welwyn North                    280         320          300         310     270    260       280
Knebworth                       360         270          330         310     300    290       320
Stevenage                     1,010       1,150        1,390       1,340   1,280    980     1,680
Hitchin                         610         820          920       1,040     970    920     1,020
Letchworth                      370         430          470         510     510    520       620
Baldock                         100          90          110         100      70    110       120
Ashwell & Morden                 40          60           50          50      50     60        70
Royston                         390         460          430         380     500    690       870

Main Line, Outer             3,140        3,600       4,000        4,040   3,950   3,830   4,980

 Total                       8,770        8,950       9,430        9,190   9,130   9,950   11,130

 Source: Hertfordshire County Council Transport Co-ordination Unit/BRB

   3.32. The immediate impact of electrification is likely to come from
transfer to rail by people already travelling. BRB and Hertfordshire County
Council carried out surveys in 1977 and 1978 when they asked travellers
whether they had changed their mode of travel for the particular rail trip
in question, because of electrification. Only about 15 per cent of travellers
said they had changed their mode of travel and of these half had switched
from other BRB services. It may therefore have been rather early to judge
the effect of electrification especially on the Outer Suburban service.
   3.33. On the Outer Suburban service there is also a considerable amount
of commuting which is not based on London. In 1978 about 1-5 million
journeys were made between Hatfield, Welwyn, Stevenage, Hitchin, Letch-
worth and Cambridge and about 60 per cent were commuter journeys. On
the Inner Suburban service the main non-London flows are towards Potters
Bar, Hatfield and Welwyn Garden City, but they are a small proportion
of total commuter travel on the service.
                                                     221
   3.34. On the Outer Suburban service the proportion of off-peak travel
is high. 1978 figures showed 3,800 people joining trains travelling towards
London in the off-peak, and of these 2,200 travelled to Kings Cross, ie
about 30 per cent of total daily journeys on this service to Kings Cross.
The main originating stations for off-peak business are those mentioned
in paragraph 3.28 and the main destination is Central London, but there
is also a considerable amount of off-peak travel between these stations.
1978 figures for Saturday travel showed 6,400 people joining London-bound
trains and for Sunday the figure was 3,100. Off-peak business in total has
grown by 22 per cent since electrification, ie between 1977 and 1979.
  3.35. The volume of off-peak business on the Inner services is greater,
with 5,100 people joining off-peak London-bound trains on survey day in
1978. Eighty per cent of this travel is to and from Central London. Off-peak
business has grown by 100 per cent since electrification.

Future
   3.36. Outer Suburban. There will be some engineering, light industry and
warehousing development at Hatfield, Welwyn Garden City, Stevenage,
Hitchin and Letchworth as part of the Garden City/New Town policy but
the Hertfordshire Structure Plan envisages only limited population growth
in these areas and preservation of the Green Belt. Apart from these areas
no significant growth in local employment or population is foreseen for
the area between London and Hitchin.
  3.37. On the Outer part of the service between Hitchin and Royston
there is expected to be population growth of at least 4 per cent over the
next seven years, increasing the catchment area population to about 93,000.
  3.38. There is spare capacity on many services to cope with the forecast
growth and no significant timetable changes are planned in the next five
years. Electrification from Royston to Cambridge remains a possibility.
   3.39. Inner Suburban. The population of the catchment area of this ser-
vice has been static or declining since the 1950s but is likely to stabilise
in the 1980s. The London boroughs of Islington and Harringay anticipate
a population decline of about 5 per cent to 1991; Enfield and Barnet see
a fairly static population. Most of Southern Hertfordshire is in the Green
Belt area and therefore has limited scope for population expansion.
   3.40. In May 1981 there will be some reduction of early morning, late
evening and peak period services to equate capacity more closely to
demand. The semi-fast service from Welwyn Garden City will be diverted
to Kings Cross to meet the demand for a direct service and to improve
reliability in the tunnel between Drayton Park and Moorgate.

Competition
  3.41. BRB estimate their market share to be 85 per cent for London
commuting and about 10 per cent for non-London commuting on the Outer
                                  222
Suburban service. On the Inner service it is about 25 per cent of Central
London commuting.

   3.42. In some Outer areas the service is in competition with other BRB
services into London, ie the Liverpool Street services to the East and the
St. Pancras services to the West. At the London end the Piccadilly Line
from Cockfosters and the Northern Line from High Barnet compete for
travellers to the West End and the City. The Al trunk road is at motorway
standard in the area but congestion in Central London reduces the attracti-
veness of the car for longer journeys to London. Bus competes for travellers
from Islington and Harringay to Central London.

  3.43. For short distance non-London journeys there is competition from
bus and local journeys are encouraged by a good main road system including
the North Circular.


Fare structure
  3.44. Fares on these services are increased by 2-3 per cent more than
the general increase each year to reflect the improved quality of service
and to recoup the investment made in electrification.

   3.45. Through booking of ordinary, day return and season tickets to LT
stations is possible on this route; this is particularly useful in view of the
easy cross-platform interchange between BR and LT at Highbury.


Labour supply
   3.46. There is a high turnover rate among guards. Many leave during
initial training because it proves to be too difficult for them. The shortfall
of guards in the Division is at present about 15 per cent of the total establish-
ment for the Kings Cross and Hitchin depots. This sometimes leads to
train cancellations, mainly in late evening and weekend services, although
the peak service can also be affected. Cancellations can also arise from
absenteeism amongst drivers and guards. However, disciplinary action
against offenders is proving successful in reducing the amount of absen-
teeism.

   3.47. The organisation of guards at Kings Cross is based in a link system,
in which guards progress in seniority order from the empty coaching stock
(ECS) link, through the suburban links, to the main line link. As a result,
vacancies fall most heavily on the ECS link and to a small extent on the
Inner Suburban electric link, and this work is covered mainly by overtime
and rest day working.


Quality of service
  3.48. Tables 5 and 6 show the peak period performance of the EMUs
on the two services.
                                      223
TABLE 5.   Peak period performance (Outer Suburban 1980)
                                                     Percentage of trains
                                         1-5 mins        Over 5 mins
4 weeks ending          On time             late             late           Cancelled

26.1.80                       39             34               22                5
23.2.80                       51             32               15                1
22.3.80                       44             39               16                1
19.4.80                       62            .26               12                *
17.5.80                       62             21               17                *

 Source: BRB
 * = less than 0.5 per cent


The table shows that on average just over 50 per cent of trains arrived
on time and over 80 per cent arrived within five minutes of their scheduled
time. BRB have told us that the high level of cancellations and lower punc-
tuality standards in the early part of 1980 reflected the fact that problems
experienced at that time on the Outer Suburban service were a reaction
to conditions on the Inner service, and also that Outer Suburban stock
was occasionally used to run some of the Inner services. More recent results
show that about 70 per cent of trains arrive on time, and about 90 per
cent within five minutes of their scheduled time and that the cancellation
rate is very low.

TABLE 6.   Peak period performance (Inner Suburban 1980)
                                                     Percentage of trains
                                          1-5 mins       Over 5 mins
4 weeks ending           On time            late             late           Cancelled

26.1.80                       35            33                19               13
23.2.80                       43            30                13               13
22.3.80                       39            29                18               13
19.4.80                       49            32                13                5
17.5.80                       47            31                16                5

Source: BRB




   3.49. On the Inner Suburban service on average fewer than half the
booked trains arrived on time and 70-80 per cent arrived within five minutes
of scheduled time. The 13 per cent cancellation rate in the first three periods
reflected a high level of equipment failure and also the effects of the indus-
trial action over radios in the cabs of the 313 stock. The latter was resolved
in March 1980 and the 5 per cent cancellation rate since then shows the
combined effect of equipment failure and staff shortage. (For a fuller de-
scription of the problems with the 313 stock, which were a cause of unpunc-
tuality as well as cancellations, see Appendix 11.)


  3.50. Tables 7 and 8 show the all-day punctuality performance of the
two services.
                                          224
TABLE 7.   All day performance (Outer Suburban 1980)—percentage of trains
                                         1-5 mins       Over 5 mins
4 weeks ending           On time           late             late            Cancelled

26.1.80            \      64                20                16            negligible
23.2.80                    72               17                11
22.3.80                    70               20                10
19.4.80                    78               16                 6
17.5.80                    78               16                 6
14.6.80                    76               15                 9
12.7.80                    79               16                 5

  Source: BRB



A comparison of Tables 5 and 7 shows that the all-day performance on
the Outer Suburban service is better than the peak. Eighty-four to ninety-
five per cent of trains arrived within five minutes of their scheduled time.
TABLE 8.   All day performance (Inner Suburban 1980)—percentage of trains
                                         1-5 mins       Over 5 mins
4 weeks ending           On time            late            late            Cancelled

26.1.80                    71               17                12                8
23.2.80                    75               17                 8                8
22.3.80                    71               18                11                74
19.4.80                    78               16                 6                5
17.5.80                    75               17                 8                5
14.6.80                    76               15                 9                54
12.7.80                    79               16                 5                4
 Source: BRB


   3.51. On the Inner Suburban service the better all day punctuality (88
to 95 per cent of trains arrive within five minutes of their scheduled time)
is even more noticeable. The level of cancellations, however, is about the
same all day as it is in the peak in the more recent months.

   3.52. Another aspect of quality of service frequently mentioned by com-
muters is cleanliness of the rolling stock. All the stock for these services
undergoes heavy cleaning at the Hornsey depot, and because the stock
is captive to these services it is relatively easy to make sure that each
unit is cleaned regularly and also to motivate the cleaning staff to be particu-
larly diligent. A high standard of cleanliness is thus expected and achieved
on these services.


Investment
   3.53. Both these services have been completely modernised over the last
five years. The services were electrified in 1976 (Inner) and 1978 (Outer)
and new electric multiple unit stock provided. Track rationalisation and
the provision of multiple aspect signalling have improved reliability. There
is a plan for the electrification of the service between Royston and
Cambridge but this has yet to be authorised.
                                          225
  3.54. There are 29 stations on the electrified service north of Finsbury
Park. Of these, two (Hatfield and Stevenage) were rebuilt in the mid 1970s,
twelve were improved recently and two (Royston and Finsbury Park) are
presently being improved. The others were scheduled for improvement in
1979 or 1980 but the schemes were abandoned for lack of funds.




                          4. Euston to Bletchley

Introduction
   4.1. The Euston—Bletchley—Northampton service is co-ordinated with
the West Coast Main Line Inter-City timetable, alternate Outer Suburban
trains being extended beyond the South East area in order to provide a
'through' journey from intermediate stations between London—Bletchley
and Northampton, to Rugby (for Inter-City connections to the North),
Coventry and Birmingham. The London (Euston)—Bletchley service forms
a part of the Euston AC services (see map at Figure 1).


The services
  4.2. The AC service is operated by class 310 multiple units which were
introduced in 1966 upon completion of the electrification of the Euston
main line and have a maximum service speed of 75 miles per hour. These
comprise four cars, providing 25 first and 293 second class seats (total
capacity 318). The majority of peak hour trains are formed of two four-car
rakes to provide a total seating capacity of 636.

   4.3. To supplement the multiple units at peak times, two locomotive
hauled sets of coaches are employed on fast commuter expresses between
London and Northampton. Only one intermediate stop is made by each
train, at Bletchley and Leighton Buzzard respectively.

   4.4 The standard 'off-peak' base service, Mondays to Saturdays, com-
prises two multiple unit trains per hour in each direction. One runs to and
from Bletchley calling at 'all-stations' and the second train each way is
a 'semi-fast' which calls only at selected stations and runs to and from
Birmingham. During the Monday to Friday peak periods, the multiple unit
service is intensified; 12 trains arrive at Euston between 08.00 and 09.00
and a similar number depart between 17.00 and 18.00.

Journey times to principal stations
  4.5. Because the layout of the tracks is essentially linear and far less
complex than for example in Southern Region, high operating speeds are
more generally possible. Some commuter and Inter-City services use the
fast lines, while the slow lines are used for suburban stopping services,
                                   226
                                       FIGURE 1
                                  Euston AC Services




                                                     Long Buckby


                                                          Northampton




                                       - - Wolverton


                                       -—   Milton Keynes (opens October   198l)


                                       _/Bletchley                         ^
                                       - -•Leighton Buzzard
      Parallel Inter-City Lines
~—-— Outer-Suburban AC Route
                                       - - Cheddington
= Paytrain Services
 •••
••• DC Inner-Suburban   Services
                                        - - Tring
 =
• ™ Peak Hour Bakerloo Line Services

                                       - - Berkhamsted

Source:   BRB
                                       - - Kernel Hempstead


                                        - - Apsley


                                        - - Kings Langley




                                            Bushey (open Mondays to Fridays Peak Hours for
                                                                          AC Services)

                                            Harrow and Wealdstone




Source: BRB




                                            227
freight etc. The fast lines are currently classified for use at 100 mph and
the slow lines for 75 mph. The approximate journey time and average speed
to and from Huston are indicated below:
      Station                Basic service            Peak hours
      Watford Junction       By EMU 18 mins           By EMU 18 mins
                             58-3 mph                 58 • 3 mph
      Hemel Hempstead        By EMU 27 mins           By EMU 24 mins
                             54-4 mph                 61 -2 mph
      Berkhamsted            By EMU 33 mins           By EMU 29 mins
                             51 mph                   57-9 mph
      Leighton Buzzard       By EMU 45 mins           Commuter express 31 mins
                             53 • 6 mph               77-8 mph
      Bletchley              By EMU 52 mins           Commuter express 34 mins
                             53-8 mph                 82 • 3 mph


Input from commuter associations and public
  4.6. We understand that there are no commuter associations concerned
with the Huston to Bletchley services. We received no letters from members
of the public regarding these services.

TABLE 1.   Selected data for Euston—Bletchley Stopping Service 1976-80
                                1976          1977        1978           7979    1980
                               (£000)        £0)
                                            (00           £0)
                                                         (00              £0)
                                                                         (00      £0)
                                                                                 (00
Expenses
  Train Working                 1,064         1,154       1,257          1,456   1,795
  Terminals                       731           695         595            648     818
  Total                         1,795         1,849       1,852          2,104   2,613
Earnings                        2,743         3,311      3,942           4,590   5,503
Contribution                     948          1,462      2,090           2,486   2,890

Operating Ratio (%)               65            56          47              46     47

Loaded train miles (000)        854           863         840             840    824

Per loaded train mile (£)
Expenses
  Train working                 1-25          1-34        1-50           1-73    2-18
  Terminals                     0-86          0-81        0-71           0-77    0-99
  Total                         2-10          2-14        2-20           2-50    3-17
Earnings                        3-21          3-84        4-69           5-46    6-68
Contribution                    1-11          1-70        2-49           2-96    3-51

Passenger miles (millions)      NA          114-3        119-6           122-3   129-4

Per passenger mile (pence)
Expenses
  Train Working                               1-01        1-05            1-19   1-39
  Terminals                                   0-61        0-50            0-53   0-63
  Total                >•       NA            1-62        1-55            1-72   2-02
Earnings                                      2-90        3-30            3-75   4-25
Contribution                                  1-28        1-75            2-03   2-23

 Source: BRB PP & CCA

                                              228
Financial data
  4.7. Table 1 lists budgeted direct expenses, earnings, loaded train miles,
passenger miles and derived data for the Euston to Bletchley stopping ser-
vice. It presents a very healthy picture, with a substantial growth in pas-
senger miles, earnings and contribution each year. The operating ratio
has been reduced each year until 1979, with relative stability over the last
three years. The operating ratio is such that this service is almost certainly
covering its total costs; the total budgeted expenses are less than half the
earnings. A similar position applies to the Euston—Bletchley—Northamp-
ton semi-fast service.

Demand structure
  4.8. The Board's terminal count shows that passenger arrivals in central
London for the morning peak period have increased by around 25 per cent
since 1971 at Euston, against the trend for Southern Region or Eastern
Region services. Table 2 gives selected data for passenger arrivals at certain
central London termini between 07.00 and 09.59:

TABLE 2.   Passenger arrivals in central London in the morning peak
             Station                         1971         1975         1979
            Charing Cross                   45,120       36,570       38,851
             Victoria                       63,365       56,030       57,074
             Waterloo                       83,361       73,220       76,429
             Liverpool Street               69,990       59,350       60,836
             Euston                         11,460       11,764       14,232
  Source: BRB

  4.9. Annual terminal counts at Euston for the AC services only confirm
the growth in commuting (almost exactly 2,000 more in the period
1974-1980, during the morning peak):

TABLE 3.   Euston—Bletchley and Northampton peak services
                         07.00 to 09.59                         16.00 to 18.59
                  Seats              Passengers           Seats             Passengers
1974              10,176                7,927             9,848                6,779
1975              11,120                8,156            10,484                7,664
1976              11,120                9,283            10,484                8,137
1977              11,120                9,046            10,484                8,378
1978              11,120                9,211            10,484                8,639
1979              11,162                9,925            10,526                9,205
  Source: BRB

There are also substantial passenger flows to Watford and Harrow, which
are not recorded in the Euston terminal counts.

   4.10. The last major review of the Euston AC service was carried out
in May 1974 and was the first major re-cast of the Outer Suburban timetable
since electrification (see paragraph 4.2). The main 1974 changes took into
account growth in commuter travel from the outer suburban area which
has increased in population substantially, especially at Hemel Hemstead,
Berkhamsted, Leighton Buzzard, Bletchley (Milton Keynes) and also at
Northampton.
                                           229
Future
   4.11. The most important growth area on this line is Milton Keynes.
In September 1979 the Milton Keynes Development Corporation forecast
that the population would have doubled by 1991 and that employment would
have more than doubled. BRB also think that a more modest rate of popula-
tion growth will continue elsewhere in the area served by the AC service.

   4.12. Changes in the timetable have been planned to take account of
this growth. From May 1981 the commuter service will be revised and addi-
tional fast multiple unit services are proposed between London and North-
ampton. From October 1981 these trains will call at the new Milton Keynes
station (see paragraph 4.19).

Competition
   4:13. a commuter coach runs between Milton Keynes (Bletchley) and
London and local buses operate services parallel to the AC lines, but serving
small communities in between stations. Private transport is attracted by
easy access to the Ml in the Outer Suburban area and door-to-door journey
times can be competitive with rail in certain instances. Once traffic has
left the Ml, however, road congestion is very much more serious and car
parking is difficult in central London.

Labour supply
  4.14. BR stated that there is competition for labour in the Milton Keynes
and Northampton area and there are also staffing problems in the London
area. It is difficult to isolate the labour supply as it affects the commuter
services, because the train crew depots also supply drivers and guards for
Inter-City, parcel and freight services, as well as local services. The position
for certain relevant train crew depots is indicated in Table 4, for July 1980.

TABLE 4.   Staff numbers at selected train crew depots (as at 19 July 1980)
Depot                        Drivers             Drivers' assistants        Guards
                    Establishment Actual Establishment Actual Establishment Actual
Bletchley               72         72        16         10         50         46
Euston                 188        182        49         47         97         80
Northampton             56         55        21         21         41         37
Rugby                   90         88        17         16         56         49
Watford                 63         60                              42         36
Willesden                                                          21         19
 Source: BRB

Overall, there is no significant total shortfall of drivers versus the establish-
ment (but see paragraph 5.11), but there is a significant shortfall in guards
at almost all of the depots. This is proportionately most serious at Euston
and Watford.

Quality of service
  4.15. Punctuality statistics for the four weeks ended 1 December 1979
are shown in Table 5. In the peak period, only some 25 to 30 per cent
of trains were 'right time' and a further 33 to 41 per cent one to five minutes
                                      230
late. These figures tend to support the 'travel log' submitted by a Commis-
sion observer (see Table 6) which indicates that the punctuality at peak
periods is considerably inferior to the off-peak service. On the other hand,
the level of cancellations is low, being zero for peak services up, and only
2-4 per cent for peak services down.
TABLE 5.   Punctuality—four weeks ending 1 December 1979
                No. of                        Minutes late             Can-      Journey
                 trains Right                                   Over   celled      not
                booked time       1-5    6-10 11-20 21-30        30             completed
Peak services      449    112     185      68      50      14      8    11        10 •1
down           per cent 25-0     41-3    15-1    11-1     3-1   1 •8   2-4         0 •2
Peak services      480    142     160     115      50      11      2     0         00
up             per cent 29-7     33-3    23-9    10-4     2-3   0 •4     0         00
Non-peak           1,016   605    1%     114      75     16        8     1           1
down             per cent 59-5   19-3   11-2     7-4    1-6     0 •8   0-1        0- 1
Non-peak          1,148    665    227    122      93     26       11     3           1
up               per cent 57-9   19-8   10-6     8-1    2-3     0 •9   0-3        0- 1
Source: BRB

  4.16. The reasons for cancellations given by BR are as follows:
    Drivers—                                             38%
    Guards—                                               8%
    Train failure—                                       38%
    Mishap—                                               8%
     Signal equipment failures—
    Engineering work/various operational difficulties— 8%
     (It should be noted, however, that these relate to the very low level
     of cancellations in Table 3.)
The Division commented that the region's commuter services in total have
a performance standard which is comparable with that proposed in the
Board's publication 'Towards a Commuters' Charter'.
  4.17. A Commission observer submitted a 'travel log' for the part of the
Euston to Bletchley service between Euston and Berkhamsted. This
referred to a commuter return journey daily for the months December 1979
to June 1980 inclusive. It is summarised in Table 6.
TABLE 6.   Travel log'—Berkhamsted to Euston
                  Actual                                                 % of the total
                 journeys    Short           Lateness (mins)           trains 5 or more
Month            travelled   trains     5-10      11-20      over 20     minutes late
Nov/Dec 79           34        2          4         5           1             26
    Jan 80           44         1         1         5           -             14
    FebSO            42         1         9         5           8             52
    Mar 80           44        -         14         6           2             50
    Apr 80           38         1         9         3           1             34
    May 80           36        2          3         1           -             11
    Jim 80           42        -          3         2           -             12
  Source: MMC study

The worst months during this period were clearly February 1980 (when
there was the serious main line derailment at Bushey) and March (when
there were power supply troubles).
                                   231
   4.18. The lines into Euston are among the most heavily used in the world.
The effects of tonnage and speed have been greater than expected. Broken
rails have been a particular problem. Between Euston and Crewe it has
been found that replacement of rails is required after ten years, instead
of fifteen. This work is affecting punctuality and in July 1980 there were
seven speed restrictions between Euston and Rugby. The severe winter
of 1978-1979 affected the EMUs adversely, but availability had recovered
to 80-85 per cent by July 1980.

Investment
   4.19. The investment in electrification, resignalling, station building and
rolling stock was completed in 1966. A new station is under construction
for the new city of Milton Keynes and is being financed mainly by Milton
Keynes Development Corporation. Facilities at Watford are limited in rela-
tion to its importance as an Inter-City railhead. There are plans to provide
better waiting facilities and (longer term) a major development including
offices is under consideration. Refurbishment of the class 310 rolling stock
is scheduled to start in 1982, when the operating speed will be raised to
90 mph.

        5. Euston/Broad Street to Watford Junction/Croxley Green
Introduction
  5.1. The London Midland DC Network comprises the lines
    Watford—Euston/Broad Street—Richmond (and CroxleyGreenbranch).
There are also LT Bakerloo line services at peak times to Watford Junction
and all day LT services to Stonebridge Park. The BR services on the Wat-
ford Junction to Croxley Green branch line operate on Mondays to Fridays
at peak times only. The rather complex network is shown in the diagram
which is at Figure 1. There are 40 stations served by the DC services (includ-
ing Willesden Junction, serving both lines). All stations except Highbury
and Islington on the North London line (which is staffed by LT) are con-
trolled by BRB. Gunnersbury, Kew Gardens and Richmond are adminis-
tered by Southern Region. In this case study we are concerned with the
Watford to Euston/Broad Street service only.

The services
   5.2. The DC services are operated by Class 501 EMUs, comprising three-
car sets, providing 240 second class seats in total. The majority of peak
hour services operate with two three-car units, to provide a total seating
capacity of 480. The 501 units were introduced in 1957 and have a maximum
service speed of 60 mph. The Watford DC lines run parallel with the AC
lines, which are a much faster, limited stop service. (See case study on
Euston-Bletchley AC services.) The total vehicles allotted to the service
are as follows:
                                                      Vehicles
                 Euston/Broad Street to Watford      35 (EMU)
                 Broad Street to Richmond            60 (EMU)
                                       232
                                                               FIGURE 1
                                                      London Midland DC Network
                              St Albans A b b e y )


         WATFORD JUNCTION
                                                                    W A T F O R O - E U S T O N / B R O A D STREET - RICHMOND
                   rd High Street                                                (and C R O X L E Y GREEN BRANCH)


                                                                                   DC e l e c t r i f i e d lines
                                                                                   Parallel running           AC lines

                                                                                   District      Line
                                                                                                          \    London Transport
                                                                                   Bakerloo Line          )
                                                                                   North Woolwich          Line
                                                                                   Inter-change points with LT services
K)




                                                                                                 LONDON (EUSTON)

     Source: BRB
   5.3. The off-peak service interval on the Euston—Watford DC line is
20 minutes on Monday to Saturday and 30 minutes on Sunday. Trains call
at all stations except on Sundays, when five are closed. In the evening
peak between 16.37 and 18.37 the Euston—Watford frequency falls to half-
hourly but this is offset by the provision of six trains from Broad Street
via Primrose Hill to Watford between 16.09 and 18.29 and also by four
LT Bakerloo line trains running to Watford Junction. A similar pattern
applies hi the morning peak except that two Watford—Broad Street trains
run on to the North London line at Willesden Junction.


Input from commuter associations and public
   5.4. We noted at paragraph 4.7 of the Bletchley/Euston study that we
were unaware of any commuter associations for services into Euston. How-
ever, a Line Closure Defence Committee was set up some years ago for
the Broad Street to Richmond service and this has continued as a travel
promotion activity. Recently it has become much involved in the North
London orbital strategy. BRB have been involved in the 'Cross Town'
(Barking to Kentish Town) working party with several London boroughs.
This has sought to develop the North London orbital routes discussed in
the London Rail Study report of 1974. Following the Minister's recent deci-
sion, the Barking—Kentish Town service will be diverted to Gospel Oak
from 5 January 1981. Kentish Town West station is also to be reopened
at a later date.

   5.5. A submission from the Islington InterSoc Transport Group describes
the North London line as a 'reliable, although low-quality service . . .
although, in the last couple of years, standards have been falling noticeably'.
The Group is concerned about the Board's proposals to close Broad Street
Station, as part of the Liverpool Street Station redevelopment. They esti-
mate that travelling time from Islington into the City might be doubled,
or the direct link with the City might be withdrawn altogether. This concern
was also voiced by the Islington Society, which considers that through rail-
way services between Islington and the new Liverpool Street Station deve-
lopment should be included in the Board's plans.

   5.6. BRB do not agree with the comments from the Islington InterSoc
Transport Group in relation to travelling times from the Islington area
(Highbury and Islington/Canonbury/Dalston Junction stations) to the City;
alternative arrangements would be made as part of the Liverpool Street/
Broad Street station redevelopment.


Financial data
   5.7. The budgeted direct expenses, earnings, loaded train miles, pas-
senger miles and derived data relating to this service are set out in Table
1. In 1976 the total direct expenses exceeded earnings, leading to an operating
ratio of 113 per cent, but action was taken to reduce train working expenses,
by readjustment of the frequency of DC services and the number of sets
                                     234
of vehicles in use (see paragraph 5.8). There was a very marked improve-
ment in operating ratio following 1976, and the improvement has been sus-
tained. The operating ratio of 73 per cent estimated in the 1980 budget
is creditable for an Inner Suburban service with very frequent stops.
TABLE 1.   Selected data for Euston/Broad Street—Watford Junction/Croxley Green 1976-80
                                7976          1977       1978         7979         1980
                               (00
                                 £0)         (00
                                              £0)        (00
                                                          £0)          £0)
                                                                     (00           £0)
                                                                                  (00
Expenses
  Train Working               1,205           985           1,311       1,324      1,293
  Terminals                   1,418         1,502           1,482       1,626      2,090
  Total                       2,623         2,487           2,793       2,950      3,383
Earnings                      2,313         2,939           3,272       3,965      4,662
Contribution                   (310)          452             479       1,015      1,279
Operating Ratio (%)             113           85              85              74     73

Loaded train miles (000)        785          786             905             875    913

Per loaded train mile (£)
Expenses
  Train Working                1-54         1-25            1-45            1-51   1-42
  Terminals                    1-81         1-91            1-64            1-86   2-29
  Total                        3-34         3-16            3-09            3-37   3-71
Earnings                       2-95         3-74            3-62            4-53   5-11
Contribution                  (0-39)        0-58            0-53            1-16   1-40

Passenger miles (millions)     NA           59-4            56-3            62-6   62-2

Per passenger mile (pence)
Expenses
  Train Working                             1-66            2-33            2-12   2-08
  Terminals                                 2-53            2-63            2-59   3-36
  Total                »•      NA           4-19            4-96            4-71   5-44
Earnings                                    4-95            5-81            6-33   7-50
Contribution                                0-76            0-85            1-62   2-06
  Source: BRB PP & CCA




Demand structure
  5.8. Since 1977, traffic flows have remained fairly static, or in some
instances have declined. The Government decision to contain the level of
the PSO Grant from 1975 in real terms necessitated a service review, in
order to achieve economies. The service was reduced as follows:
      Euston—Watford            Off-peak   reduced   from   15-20 minutes
                                Peak       reduced   from   15-30 minutes
                                Sundays    reduced   from   20-30 minutes
     Broad Street—Watford       Peak       reduced   from   15-30 minutes

This economy was considered appropriate by the London Division of LMR,
bearing in mind that the Inner Suburban stations have direct trains from
the City during the peak (trains from Broad Street and LT Bakerloo line).
                                    235
Eleven units were taken out of use and costs reduced by some 38 per
cent.

  5.9. The commuting flows recorded by BR to Huston and Broad Street
are set below but it should be noted that these services are probably more
important as feeders rather than for travel to central London:
          Arriving at            Total daily   Morning     Peak % of
                                                peak       daily total
          Euston                   2,760        1,354          49
          Broad Street             2,494        1,673          67

                                                          Peak % of
          Departing              Total daily Evening peak daily total
          Euston                   3,025         1,264        42
          Broad Street             2,124         1,268 .      60

Other significant flows are to Watford, Harrow and Wembley with major
interchange at Willesden Junction and Queens Park. The average journey
distance is five miles.

Future
  5.10. BRB do not foresee any significant social or economic changes
in the Inner Suburban area served by these lines. Accordingly they do not
envisage major changes on the Watford—Euston DC line. Plans for the
closure of Broad Street station (see paragraph 1.39 of this appendix), if
realised, would involve some change to the City end of the service.

Competition
  5.11. The large number of stations on these services means that the
average speed of the service is only in the region of 20 to 28 miles per
hour and therefore bus services are competitive for the short journey
market, especially off-peak when road congestion is of less significance.
The proximity of the Metropolitan line from Watford (Metropolitan) to
Baker Street off-peak and to Moorgate/Liverpool Street in the peak is also
competitive for some journeys. Passenger flows are sensitive to relative
fare levels. The London Amenity and Transport Association (LATA)
proposed, in a submission to the Commission, that the Bakerloo line
services should be extended all day to Watford Junction, in place of the
BR Euston to Watford stopping service. This would, however, remove the
through rail service from stations south of Queens Park, ie from Kilburn
High Road and South Hampstead, and might not represent the travel
requirements of the public along the route.

Labour supply
  5.12. The numbers of drivers, drivers' assistants and guards at various
depots is given in the case study on the Euston to Bletchley AC services.
There are shortfalls of guards (relative to establishment) at Broad Street,
Euston, Stonebridge Park, Watford and Willesden. The largest disparities
are at Stonebridge Park and Watford.
                                    236
Quality of service
  5.13. Punctuality statistics for the four weeks period ended 23 February
1980 for the total DC lines are shown in Table 2.
                      TABLE 2. Punctuality: London to Watford DC service
               Total number of trains booked                6,592
               Right time                                   5,616      85-2 %
               One to five minutes late                       546        8-3 %
               Six to ten minutes late                        156        2-3 %
               Eleven to twenty minutes late                   53       0-8 %
               Twenty-one to thirty minutes late                9       0-14%
               Over thirty minutes late                         5       0-08%
               Cancelled                                      204        3-1 %
 Source: BRB

The total percentage within five minutes late (93-5 per cent) is close to
that proposed in the appendix to 'Towards a Commuters' Charter' but
cancellations at 3-1 per cent are higher than the 1 per cent proposed. The
stated reasons for cancellations on the services are as follows:
               Signal equipment failure                                   2%
               Drivers                                                   77%
               Guards                                                     9%
               Train failure                                              4%
               Mishap                                                     6%
               Engineering work/various operational difficulties          2%
The high percentage of cancellations attributed to drivers is unusual and
the Board have told us that the reason for this is the strong preference
of drivers for operating the Inter-City and AC services.
Investment
   5.14. No major changes are envisaged by the Board on the Watford to
Euston line, but the North London line figures in the GLC proposals for
improving transport infrastructure in the longer term (but possibly within
five years). This could involve electrification from Dalston Western
Junction to North Woolwich. Broad Street station might close as part of
the Liverpool Street redevelopment. The Board state that a considerable
problem exists with vandalism, graffiti etc within the urban area. A number
of stations are in need of repair and decoration, but funds are not available
for refurbishment at present. Broad Street station is in very poor condition
but its future is dependent upon plans (already referred to) to develop
Liverpool Street and close Broad Street itself. A new station is proposed
at Dalston Kingsland High Street.

               6. London to Kent Coast (Main Line Electric)
Introduction
  6.1. London to Kent Coast (Main Line Electric) includes the following
BR routes, not all of which are direct commuting routes into London:
     Charing Cross/Cannon Street—Ramsgate/Margate via Orpington/
     Dover/Canterbury West
     Victoria/Holborn Viaduct—Gillingham/Faversham via Swanley
     Victoria/Holborn Viaduct—Maidstone East/Ashford/Margate
                                             237
    Victoria—Dover/Ramsgate via Bromley South/Faversham/Canterbury
    East/Herne Bay
    Charing Cross—Ramsgate via Dartford/Herne Bay (Gillingham—
    Ramsgate portion only)
    Paddock Wood—Maidstone West—Strood
    Sittingbourne—Sheerness
    Cannon Street—Ramsgate via Chislehurst Junction/Faversham/Herne
    Bay
Figure 1 shows the principal stations on the services in South East London
and Kent.
                               FIGURE 1


                                             Southeast London
                                             and Kent



                                                                Mtrgite




                                  238
The services
  6.2. Table 1 shows examples of the journey times for some of the
important traffic flows from London and Table 2 shows the off-peak pattern
of service.
TABLE 1. Journey time examples
                Flow                                       Journey time (mins)
                Charing Cross—Ashford                             61/82
                Charing Cross—Dover                               88/105
                Charing Cross—Tonbridge                           40/44
                Victoria—Maidstone                                51/66
                Charing Cross—Sevenoaks                             33
                Charing Cross—Margate                            122/159
                Victoria—Margate                                  95/100
                Victoria—Swanley                                    28
                Victoria—Chatham                                  41/59
  Source: BRB

TABLE 2.   Kent Coast (Main Line Electric) off-peak service pattern
                                 London terminus
Route                              and frequency                   Calling pattern
London—Ashford/Dover/          Charing Cross         Waterloo East; Ashford; Folkestone
Ramsgate                       Hourly                Central; Dover Priory; thence all
                                                     stations
London—Tonbridge/Ashford/       Charing Cross        Waterloo East; Orpington; Sevenoaks;
Dover/Margate and               Hourly (at 30 min Tonbridge; Paddock Wood; Ashford;
Ashford—Canterbury—Margate interval to service thence all stations
                               above)
London—Tonbridge/Ashford       Charing Cross         Waterloo East; London Bridge;
                                Hourly               Orpington; Sevenoaks; thence all
                                                     stations
London—Maidstone/Ashford/       Victoria             Bromley South; Borough Green; St
Margate                         Hourly               Mary Cray; thence all stations
London—Maidstone East           Victoria             Bromley South; St Mary Cray; thence
                                Hourly               all stations
London—Bromley South—           Victoria             All stations from Swanley except Sole
Gillingham—Faversham           Hourly                St
London—Bromley South—           Victoria             Bromley South; Chatham; Gillingham;
Chatham—Ramsgate/Dover          Hourly               Sittingbourne; Faversham; Whitstable;
Western Docks (WD)                                   Herne Bay; Birchington; Margate;
                                                     Broadstairs; Portion off at Faversham
                                                     for Dover WD calling at Canterbury
                                                     East; Dover Priory
London—Bromley South—          Victoria              Bromley South; Chatham; thence all
Chatham—Ramsgate/Dover         Hourly (at 30 min stations except Newington; Portion off
Priory                         interval to service at Faversham for Dover Priory calling
                               above)                all stations
London—Bromley South—          Victoria              Bromley South; St Mary Cray; thence
Gillingham                     Hourly                all stations
Strood—Paddock Wood                                  All stations
                               Hourly
Strood—Maidstone West                                All stations
                               Hourly (at 30 min
                               interval to service
                               above)
Sittingbourne—Sheerness                              All stations
                                Half-hourly
 Source: BRB

                                           239
Evidence from Commuter Associations and members of the public
  6.3. Two organisations have submitted evidence concerning these ser-
vices: the Tonbridge and District Railway Travellers Association and Thurn-
ham Parish Council.

   6.4. The Tonbridge and District Railway Travellers Association consider
that the overall peak hour services are sufficient, but the morning and even-
ing services are not well matched. The majority of the morning trains serve
Charing Cross and seats are easier to find than on the small number of
services to Cannon Street. In the evening, however, Charing Cross services
are stated to be very crowded whereas the evening trains from Cannon
Street are less heavily loaded. On the evening services from Charing Cross,
it is stated that it is quite common for large numbers of passengers to
stand as far as Orpington, and on a couple of trains passengers could expect
to stand all the way to Tonbridge. A current issue, according to the com-
muter association, is the shortage of accommodation on services immedia-
tely following the evening peak, due to the use of short trains. The fastest
train from Charing Cross to Tonbridge is 40 minutes, and the association
compares it unfavourably with services to Chelmsford (32 to 34 minutes)
or Benfleet (34 minutes).
   6.5. Rolling stock breakdowns or cancellations were stated to be rare,
but the association commented unfavourably upon track and signal failures.
(It should be noted, however, that the commonest cause of cancellations
is lack of tram crew.) Timekeeping improved considerably following the
opening of the modern signal boxes at Dartford and London Bridge, but
it is asserted that some deterioration has set in since then. The association
considers that the precedence given to delayed boat trains is currently caus-
ing difficulty at the beginning of the up peak service. In the opinion of
the association, the deterioration in timekeeping seems to reflect a slow
but steady deterioration in the condition of both rolling stock and the track.
It feels that information provided at the London termini is poor, Waterloo
(East) being without doubt the worst.

  6.6. BRB have told us that the problems caused by delayed boat trains
should be reduced when the Night Ferry ceases to operate. So far as the
information at London termini is concerned, the Board state that a great
deal of effort, both in technology and labour, has gone into raising standards
of passenger information at these stations. They can and will do more,
when investment and resources are available.

  6.7. Thurnham Parish Council are concerned about the rail service to
Maidstone East and Bearsted and Thurnham, which is between Maidstone
and Ashford. They have five main areas of criticism:
    (i) Car parking facilities are inadequate at both Maidstone East and
        Bearsted and Thurnham.
   (ii) Recent timetable changes have meant that there is no longer a direct
        service from this area to Holborn Viaduct and passengers have to
        make an inconvenient change at Bromley South.
                                     240
  (iii) The lack of barrier staff and narrowness of the barrier at Maidstone
        East cause congestion at peak times.
  (iv) There should be a greater effort to integrate the local transport
        system.
   (v) Passenger information is generally adequate at Holborn Viaduct but
        not at Victoria although there is an electronic indicator board at
        Victoria.

  6.8. BRB have replied as follows:
    (i) The car parks at both Maidstone East and Bearsted and Thurnham
        are invariably full although the one at Maidstone East is very large.
        Extension would be extremely costly and car parks have to be finan-
        cially self-supporting.
   (ii) It is accepted that this journey is not an easy one but it is the result
        of BRB's attempt to cater for the majority of travel demands. There
        is one slow train direct to Holborn Viaduct from Maidstone East
        in the morning peak.
  (iii) Funds only allow for one person on the barrier in the evening peak
        at Maidstone East. It then follows that for reasons of revenue protec-
        tion the barrier itself must be narrow.
  (iv) It has always been the aim to integrate with other transport but it
        is difficult to achieve when transport is provided by separate authori-
        ties.
   (v) The quality of the announcements at Victoria is variable. The most
        modern equipment has been installed and it is hoped that the situation
        will improve when the resignalling project is complete.

  6.9. Another input concerning this service group is an individual letter
concerning services from Canterbury East station, for travel to and from
Cannon Street and Victoria. This complained of the gradual lengthening
of the travelling time for the journey, reduction in services available at
peak times, the introduction of many more stops on the services and the
necessity to change at Faversham, with inevitable delays in waiting for
connecting services.

  6.10. Regarding the services from Canterbury East, BRB have explained
that services to the Medway area had to be increased as a result of demand
for commuting into London. This affected other services, involving retiming
and additional stops, and illustrated the problem of meeting demand at peak
periods in an extremely congested network.

Financial data
   6.11. In Table 3, the budgeted direct expenses, earnings, loaded train
miles, passenger miles and derived data are listed for the service, for the
years 1976 to 1980 inclusive. It achieved a very good contribution and oper-
ating ratio in the years up to 1978, especially in 1978 itself, but the estimated
deterioration in 1979 is forecast to continue in 1980. The total passenger
miles have not varied very significantly over the years 1978 to 1980, but
                                      241
budgeted train working expenses have moved ahead sharply over this per-
iod, by 55 per cent, while earnings have increased by only 30 per cent.

TABLE 3. Selected data—London—Kent Coast 1976-80
                            1976       1977        1978     7979     1980
                             £0)
                            (00         £0)
                                      (00          (00
                                                    £0)      £0)
                                                            (00       £0)
                                                                     (00
Expenses
  Train Working            11,239     12,424       13,422   16,603   21,304
  Terminals                 3,830      3,941        4,060    4,653    5,773
  Total                    15,069     16,365       17,482   21,256   27,077
Earnings                   24,481    26,524        30,646   33,042   39,950
Contribution                9,412     10,159       13,164   11,786   12,873

Operating Ratio (%)             62       62           57       64       68

Loaded train miles (000)     10,244   10,404       10,457   10,276   10,162

Per loaded train mile (£)
Expenses
  Train Working              MO        M9           1-28     1-62     2-10
  Terminals                  0-37      0-38         0-39     0-45     0-56
  Total                      1-47      1-57         1-67     2-07     2-66
Earnings                     2-39      2-55         2-93     3-22     3-93
Contribution                 0-92      0-98         1-26     1-15     1-27
Passenger miles (millions)   NA       1,011-7      929-8    963-6    956-2
Per passenger mile (pence)
Expenses
  Train Working                        1-23         1-44     1-73     2-23
  Terminals                   NA       °'39         0-44     0-48     0-60
  Total                                1-62         1-88     2-21     2-83
Earnings                               2-62         3-30     3-43     4-18
Contribution           J               1-00         1-42     1-22     1-35
 Source: BRB PP & CCA




Demand structure
   6.12. The loadings in the morning peak period for services in the Kent
Coast (Main Line Electric) profit centre arriving at Charing Cross and Can-
non Street are shown in Table 4. The PBSS load factor for Outer Suburban
and long distance services in the peak period is 90 per cent. Of the 25
trains listed, nine have load factors over 90 per cent, and 16 have load
factors over 80 per cent. Loadings on trains arriving in London after 9.30
are considerably below 90 per cent. Terminal count data are insufficient
to indicate the part of the journey in which standing occurs. These trains
serve some sizeable towns which are also served by other services including
the Kent Suburban (see studies 8 and 9 in this appendix), so that close
examination would be required to find out which commuters from which
towns were actually inconvenienced by over-crowding.
                                      242
Future
   6.13. A continuing decline in the number of passengers arriving in central
London from SE Division stations is expected at the rate of about 0-8
per cent a year between 1981 and 1991. This reflects the forecast level
of employment in central London, and expected changes in the distribution
of population throughout the Division. The Kent County Structure Plan
allows for a policy of general restraint in the provision of housing land
and a limited amount of office development to meet local employment needs
only.
  6.14. The only significant growth point in the county will be Ashford
where land will be provided for industrial development on a generous scale
for a sufficient period ahead and office development will also be permitted
at an appropriate level. Housing land will also be made available.
TABLE 4. Load factors on Kent Coast (Main Line Electric) trains into Charing Cross and
Cannon Street (1979)
Departure                       Arrival   London                              Load
time                Origin        time    terminal     Seats Passengers* factor
05.08     Dover Priory           07.07       cxt        306          237        77
05.00     Ramsgate               07.46       CX         683          705       103
06.45     Faversham              07.59       cst        845          734        87
06.49     Ashford                08.07       CX         840          887       106
06.18     Dover Priory           08.11       CS         672          371        55
06.25     Ramsgate               08.19       CS         728          630        87
06.02     Margate                08.23       CS         728          766       105
06.28     Dover Priory           08.26       CX         672          778       116
06.38     Dover Priory           08.31       CS         672          558        83
06.07     Ramsgate               08.38       CX         836          829        99
06.56     Margate                08.39       CS         918          698        76
07.16     Maidstone West§        08.45       CX         958        1,299       136
07.00     Dover Priory           08.46       CX         672          628        93
06.32     Margate                08.51       CS         918          740        81
07.04     Ramsgate               08.59       CS         672          693       103
07.36     Maidstone West         09.05       CX         958          947        99
07.42     Ashford                09.07       CX         840          683        81
08.00     Maidstone West         09.11       CS         754          651        86
07.36     Maidstone West         09.23       CX         831          648        78
07.30     Ramsgate               09.23       CS         601          529        88
07.57     Folkestone Central     09.26       CX         672          530        79
07.50     Ramsgate               09.39       CS         448          242        54
08.16     Maidstone West         09.43       CX         678          370        55
08.16     Ashford                09.49      CX          586          436        74
07.35     Ramsgate               09.55       CS         405          196        48

  Source: BRB TerminaJ Count
  * Numbers on trains arriving at London Bridge
  t Charing Cross
  t Cannon Street
  § Trains from Maidstone West are strictly included in the Kent Coast (Main Line Electric) profit centre only as far as
Strood.


  6.15. In the Maidstone/Medway Gap urban area, sufficient industrial land
will be made available to cater for the needs of established industries.
   6.16. The main timetable alterations in the next five years will concern
adjustment to the growth of Seaspeed, Sealink and RTM Jetfoil traffic.
It is also planned to restructure the Chatham side Outer Suburban and
main line services hi the peak and off-peak to improve reliability.
                                                        243
Competition
   6.17. The principal roads in the area covered by the Kent Coast (Main
Line Electric) services are the A2/M2/A299 from London to Medway,
Thanet and Dover, and the A20/M20 from London to Maidstone, Ashford,
Folkestone and Dover. Coach services operate along each of these, but
are thought to compete only for small segments of the total market. Private
cars are used extensively for journeys between various points on the route,
eg Thanet to Medway or Ashford to Maidstone, for local business or plea-
sure purposes and also into London. There is thought to be less competition
from private cars for daily commuter journeys to and from London, pos-
sibly because of the congestion nearing London. BRB estimate that the
total Southern Region share of all types of commuting into central London
has been constant over the last decade at between 24-5 to 26 per cent.
The total BRB share into the whole of London is estimated at 38 per cent.
On the other hand, in the Maidstone area, it is estimated that 77 per cent
of all work journeys are undertaken by car, 17 per cent by bus and only
6 per cent by train.
TABLE 5.      South Eastern Division—train crew
                                                                        Drivers'
                                                 Drivers               assistants                  Guards
Depot                                        Est        Act           Est      Act              Est     Act
Addiscombe                                    30         28                                     24        22
Ashford                                      100       100             30           28          88        78
Bricklayers Arms                               8          8
Cannon Street                                                                                   24           19
Charing Cross                                 92          84                                    29           21
Dover W Docks/Priory                          94          92           29           28          72           60
Faversham                                     63          59           16           16          57           52
Gillingham                                   138         128           32           20          62           52
Grove Park                                    43          43                                    26           24
Hastings                                                                                        38           34
Hither Green                                  98          98           70          64           26           20
London Bridge (E)                                                                               52           36
Maidstone West/Barracks                       38          35                                    28           23
Margate                                       38          34                                    24           22
Ore                                                                                             12           11
Orpington                                     82          82                                    34           25
Plumstead                                                                                       12           11
Ramsgate                                      88          76                                    59           56
St Leonards                                   56          54                                    20           19
Sevenoaks                                     26          24                                    16           13
Slade Green                                  124         114                                    56           45
Strood                                                                                          43           32
Swanley                                       31          30                                    21            9
Tonbridge                                     91          88           28          25           56           51
Victoria (E)                                  71          70                                    40           33
  Total                                    1,311       1,247          205          191         910         768
  Source: BRB
  NB These depot establishments and actual number of train crews cannot be related to lines of route. The majority of
depots cover several routes.

Labour supply
   6.18. Within SE Division as a whole, cancellations due to no guard being
available for the train were by far the most important single cause of cancel-
lations for February to December 1979. In Table 5 the SE Division train
                                      244
crew establishments and actual numbers are listed for drivers, drivers'
assistants and guards. It must be stressed that the depot establishments
and actual number of train crews cannot be related to lines of route. The
majority of depots cover several routes. Nevertheless, the shortfalls of
guards in particular are relevant to the operation of the Kent Coast (Main
Line Electric) service group, among others. For civil engineering work,
labour is adequate in the Kent Coast area and the major problem is obtaining
possession of the track for the necessary maintenance and replacement
work.

Quality of service
 6.19. Table 6 lists the punctuality for the two months of June and
November 1979.
TABLE 6.   Punctuality—Kent Coast (Main Line Electric) service
                      Percentage of London bound trains run arriving:
                                            On time          Within 5 minutes
June 1979
Weekday peak                                    45                 93
Weekday off-peak                                67                 88
Weekend                                         74                 86

November 1979
Weekday                                         59                 80
Weekend                                         77                 93


  Source: BRB


The data for the peak in June 1979 indicate relatively poor performance;
fewer than half the trains arrived on time. Even off-peak only two-thirds
were right time. This was the worst performance, on average, of any of
the SR services included in our case studies. It seems likely that the rela-
tively poor punctuality is connected with the high intensity of working at
peak periods, because punctuality at the weekends is much better than
in the weekday peak. Incidents such as broken rails, points failures, signal
failures etc occurring in SE Division have repercussions on a wide range
of services, because of the complex nature of the network. On one day
there were 64 incidents reported in the Division.

  6.20. The majority of the main line fleet is over 20 years old. Refurbish-
ment of the Kent Coast stock will improve the passengers' environment,
but while the work is in process there is a shortage of units leading to
other than planned train formations.

  6.21. Carriage cleaning is considered in detail in Chapter 4 on Quality
of Service and in Appendix 6. Additional cleaning staff are being recruited
and there are schemes to provide new exterior washing machines at Ashford
and Hither Green.

  6.22. With a view to improved communication to passengers, there is
a scheme in hand to increase th^ number of stations linked to the Divisional
                                   245
Control Office by teleprinter, which will increase the present number of
SE Division stations so linked from 40 to 59. The refurbished main line
stock will be fitted with public address equipment.
Investment
  6.23. Benefits will accrue to the service from the modernised vehicle
interiors. EMU rolling stock is used generally over the SE Division, apart
from the non-electrified lines between Tonbridge and Hastings and Ashford
and Hastings. The following rolling stock replacement or refurbishing pro-
gramme has been authorised for SR EMU stock.
     Class 411/410 (CEP/BEP) EMU, 516 vehicles to be refurbished by 1982.
     Class 415, (4EPB) EMU, 900 vehicles to be refurbished by 1987.
Most of the refurbished Class 411/410 will be used for Kent Coast services.

  6.24. The track is already mainly continuously welded rail except where
the curves are so tight as to preclude the use of this technique. Civil
engineering expenditure over the next five years or so will therefore be
mainly required for track maintenance and reconstruction of bridges.



                   7. London to Hastings via Tonbridge
  7.1. This is an Outer Suburban service and part of the Kent Coast service
group. The map at Figure 1 paragraph 6.1 of this Appendix shows the ser-
vices in South East London and Kent.

The services
   7.2. The original line was built cheaply, with steep gradients and sharp
curves. Tunnels were not properly lined and BRB have inherited these prob-
lems. Signalling is generally of the old semaphore type, but there are some
colour light signals between Tonbridge and Tunbridge Wells. The track still
contains much jointed rail, with wooden sleepers. Because the rolling stock
is limited to 75 miles an hour, the track was also down-graded to this level.
There are many speed restrictions.

  7.3. The rolling stock on this line was built in 1956/57 and is only just
over 8 feet wide, because of the restricted width in tunnels. The special
diesel electric multiple units (DEMU) are used on this service only, and
are very noisy, but reliability of the motive power unit seems to be quite
good at the present time. Acceleration is poor, however, which is the main
reason for the relatively slow average speed for this service. The rolling
stock is made up as below:
                DEMU                                    Units
                Class 201 (formerly 6S)                  5
                Class 202 (formerly 6L)                 11
                Class 203 (formerly 6B)                  5
There is also a class 205/13H set of refurbished stock, which has a new
interior, new seats and fluorescent lighting, but money has only been avail-
able for this one set to be refurbished.
                                     246
   7.4. Table 1 shows the off-peak service pattern and the journey times.

TABLE 1.      Hastings via Tonbridge service pattern and journey time

                                   London terminus                      Journey time (mins)
Route                               and frequency
London-Hastings                     Charing Cross             London-Tunbridge Wells          49
via Tonbridge                            Hourly               London-Hastings                 90

London-Hastings                      Charing Cross            London-Tunbridge Wells           57
via Tonbridge                        Hourly (at 30            London-Hastings                 105
                                      min interval
                                   to service above)

Source: BRB




Evidence from Hastings Borough Council and commuter associations
   7.5. The main points of criticism are listed below, in order of the volume
of complaints (those rated most important listed first):
     Quality of rolling stock
     Timekeeping
     Length of the journey time (approximately 1$ hours for just over 60
     miles to Hastings)
     Lack of investment
     Quality of ride
     Track and signalling failures
     Withdrawal of buffet services
     Reduction in first class accommodation
     Balance of services to London terminals.
It is clear that several of these are interlinked, arising from the age of
the system, the track, signalling and rolling stock. The facts concerning
these are not in dispute by BRB. An attempt is to be made to finance
the continuation of the buffet service by increasing custom by advertising.
The reduction in the first class accommodation was considered to be in
line with the- number of first class passengers. The balance of services
to London termini is a more difficult matter involving timetable changes
and is rather long term.


Financial and operating data
   7.6. Table 2 lists the budgeted direct expenses, earnings, loaded train
miles, passenger miles and derived data for the last five years, relating
to this service. Expenses have risen much faster than earnings, with the
result that the contribution has been shrinking each year, with a consequent
deterioration in operating ratio. The earnings data for 1976-77 should be
treated with reserve because in 1977 there was a change in the way season
ticket revenue was allocated. The contribution continued to shrink over
the period 1978-80, however.
                                    247
Demand structure
   7.7. In 1976 an early morning service was introduced (Hastings 05.40,
arrive Charing Cross 07.26). this was fully loaded from Sevenoaks onwards
within 12 months. Until 1978 there was only a basic hourly service off-peak,
but it was decided in that year to double the frequency to a half-hour ser-
vice. This increased to three or four trains an hour in the peak period.
It is not possible to run a higher frequency in the peak, because there
are not the units available, nor would the signalling permit it. A monitoring
survey between Tunbridge Wells and Hastings indicated that the increased
frequency was perceived as an improvement in journey time rather than
frequency, and that 99 per cent of the passengers would still have made
their journey even without the new fast trains. The monitoring was never-
theless inconclusive about the effect of the improved frequency on tra-
vellers.
  7.8. As Table 2 indicates, passenger miles have in fact been essentially
static since 1978. Ticket receipts indicate that the number of tickets issued
has increased generally at nearly all stations since 1972, but that the number
of season tickets to termini in London has generally declined since 1974.
TABLE 2. Selected data for London—Hastings via Tonbridge service 1976-80
                              1976        1977         7975          7979    7950
                               £0)
                             (00          £0)
                                         (00          (00
                                                        £0)           £0)
                                                                    (00       £0)
                                                                             (00
Expenses
  Train Working               1,927      2,309         2,848         3,347   4,629
  Terminals                     462        436           484           634     741
  Total                       2,389      2,745         3,332         3,981   5,370
Earnings                      4,078      4,645         4,901         5,236   6,352
Contribution                  1,689      1,900         1,569         1,255     982
Operating Ratio (%)             59           59          69           76       85

Loaded train miles (000)      979         1,195        1,311        1,314    1,325

Per loaded train mile (£)
Expenses
  Train Working               1-97         1-93         2-17        2-55     3-49
  Terminals                   0-47         0-37         0-37        0-48     0-56
  Total                       2-44         2-30         2-54        3-03     4-05
Earnings                      4-17         3-89         3-74        3-98     4-79
Contribution                  1-73         1-59         1-20        0-95     0-74

Passenger miles (millions)    NA          177-2        152-7        151-6    150-6

Per passenger mile (pence)
Expenses
  Train Working                            1-30         1-86         2-21    3-08
  Terminals                                0-25         0-32         0-42    0-49
  Total                       NA           1-55         2-18         2-63    3-57
Earnings                                   2-62         3-21         3-45    4-22
Contribution                               1-07         1-03         0-82    0-65


 Source: BRB PP & CCA

                                          248
This appears to indicate a decline in the number of regular commuters,
either through retirement, or because people are seeking local employment
in Hastings or other towns outside London. There are few places of any
size between Tunbridge Weils and Hastings.
   7.9. Table 3 indicates that the trains in the morning peak period, arriving
at Charing Cross or Cannon Street from Hastings, are quite well filled,
without being seriously overcrowded. At the time of the 1979 terminal
count, only the 06.25 from Hastings had more passengers on board than
the number of seats. The average load factor for the service as a whole
is only 33 per cent, so it is obviously only very lightly loaded out of the
peak periods.
TABLE 3. Load factors on trains from Hastings during the morning peak period (1979)
  Departure        Arrival         London          Seats      Passengers*       Load
     time            time          terminal                                     factor
    05.40           07.26             CXt           242           211             87
    06.25           08.19             CX            576           608           106
    06.55           08.43             CSt           576           565            98
    07.13           08.59             CX            537           441             82
    07.29           09.04             CS            576           514             89
    07.39           09.19             CS            537           417             78
    08.17           09.52             CS            249           148             59
  Source: BRB Terminal Count


 •Numbers on train arriving at London Bridge.
 tCharing Cross
 tCannon Street



Future
   7.10. The number of passengers from SE Division as a whole to central
London during the morning peak period is forecast to decline over the
next few years (see paragraph 6.13 of this Appendix). In Hastings, however,
a modest development giving a total additional population of around 9,500
is expected by 1988.
  7.11. The rolling stock on this service is in poor condition and BRB con-
sider that progressive deterioration of the stock will set in over the next
few years. There is no chance of improving the service in any significant
way with the existing rolling stock, track, signalling etc; refurbishment of
the rolling stock would not be practicable, because there are insufficient
units to allow enough spares to be sent away for a full refit. A refurbishment
to the interior only would be insufficient, because the underframes and
bodies also need replacing. BRB hope to electrify the service; their plans
are described in more detail in paragraph 7.15.

Competition
   7.12. The main road to London from the Hastings area, the A21, is
reported to be below modern construction standards and therefore there
is not a viable alternative to rail transport, relatively slow though the rail
service is. The alternative BR service via Lewes to Victoria is reported
                                     249
to be more comfortable, because it is electrified, but passengers have to
undertake the detour via Eastbourne and the total length of the journey
is such as to make it unattractive for commuters between Hastings and
London.

Labour supply
  7.13. No special problems have been reported for this service group.
The rolling stock is maintained at the West Marina depot at St. Leonards,
which is sufficiently far out of London to be unaffected by tight labour
supply.

Quality of service
  7.14. Table 4 lists the punctuality statistics for the service group for June
and November 1979.

TABLE 4.      Punctuality on the London to Hastings via Tonbridge service
                                                Percentage of London-bound
                                                      trains run arriving:
                                                 On time         Within 5 minutes
               June 1979
               Weekday peak                        56                    93
                Weekday
                off-peak                           70                    86
               Weekend                             80                    93

               November 1979
               Weekday                             50                  76
               Weekday                             74                  93

Source: BRB

The punctuality at weekends is very much better than on weekdays, which
would be expected. In November 1979 the 'right time' trains were approxi-
mately 25 per cent higher at weekends than on weekdays. The weekday
timekeeping was significantly better in June than in November 1979. Other
aspects of the quality of service have been discussed under the headings
of The Commuter Associations and Demand Structure.


Investment
  7.15. The problem of the future of this service has been mentioned in
paragraph 7.11. Various options for the rolling stock, type of traction and
layout of route have been considered by the Board. One of these options
involved a plan for a second tunnel under The Grove' at Tunbridge Wells
and a new layout for the junction of the Hastings and Eridge lines. There
was much objection locally to the new tunnel, and, following agreement
with the Inspecting Officer (Railways), Department of Transport, the Board
now have plans to electrify both tracks through the existing tunnel without
widening it or driving a new tunnel. This would be done by replacing the
conventional sleeper and ballast with concrete slab track and by imposing
a permanent speed limit of 25 miles an hour. It appears likely that the
                                    250
electrification will proceed if the sanction of the Department of Transport
is obtained. We understand that the current estimates for the electrification
of the part of the service from Tonbridge to Hastings, including resignalling,
is £20-4 million. An advantage of the electrification option would be that
no new rolling stock would need to be built; stock from the existing fleet
of SR electrical multiple unit vehicles could be used.



                      8. London to Gillingham via Dartford
Introduction
  8.1. This is a Southern Region Inner Suburban service and part of the
Kent Suburban service group. It covers basically the whole of the South
East Division of the Southern Region between London and Gillingham (see
map at paragraph 6.1 of this appendix) and consists of the following routes:
    (i) Charing Cross/Cannon Street—Gillingham via Woolwich/Bexley-
                                      heath/Greenwich and Sidcup
   (ii) Holborn Viaduct/Blackfriars —Crayford/Dartford/Barnehurst/Slade
                                      Green via Nunhead
  8.2. There are interchanges with LT rail services at Cannon Street and
Blackfriars (District and Circle lines), Charing Cross (Jubilee, Bakerloo,
Northern), Waterloo East (Northern, Bakerloo), London Bridge (Northern),
New Cross (Metropolitan) and Elephant and Castle (Northern, Bakerloo).
There are significant interchanges with bus services at Eltham Well Hall,
Mottingham, Dartford, Plumstead, Sidcup, Blackheath, Woolwich Arsenal
and Gravesend.
  8.3. There are links with other BRB services at Gravesend via the Grave-
send Ferry to Tilbury Riverside on the Fenchurch Street line to Southend,
and at Waterloo East with the Waterloo and City line to Bank. The suburban
service links in at Gillingham with the main line services from Victoria
to Margate, Dover, Canterbury and Folkestone.

The services
  8.4. The services are electrified and the Kent suburban service group
uses the following rolling stock:
                 126x2 EPB class 416/1/2 Built 1954-59
                 800x4 EPB class 415/1/2 Built 1951-63
                   10x2 HAP class 414/2/3 Built 1958-63
  8.5. The off-peak service pattern is as follows:
Route                      London terminus           Journey time (minutes)
                           and frequency
Sidcup line to             20 minutes                Charing Cross—Dartford 42
Dartford                   2 an hour Charing Cross   Cannon Street—Gravesend 54
                           1 an hour Cannon Street   Charing Cross—Sidcup 30
Bexleyheath line to        Charing Cross             Charing Cross—Gravesend 58
Dartford                   20 minutes                Charing Cross—Bexleyheath 34
                                        251
Route                         London terminus              Journey time (minutes)
                                and frequency
Greenwich line via            20 minutes                   Cannon Street—Dartford 40
Deptford to                   2 an hour Cannon Street      Charing Cross—Dartford 43
Dartford                      1 an hour Charing Cross
London to                      30 minutes                  Charing   Cross—Gillingham 68
Gillingham via                 Charing Cross               Charing   Cross—Woolwich 24
Woolwich and                                               Charing   Cross—Dartford 36
Gravesend                                                  Charing   Cross—Gravesend 47

   8.6. The introduction of the London Bridge signalling scheme gave BRB
the opportunity to match the peak service more closely with demand as
revealed in the 1972 Origin and Destination Survey and to provide a more
intensive off-peak service where commercially justified. The service pattern
into Charing Cross and Cannon Street was revised in 1976.

Evidence from commuter associations
  8.7. We are not aware of any commuter associations in this area and
received no evidence from third parties regarding the service.
TABLE 1. Selected data for London—Gillingham via Dartford service 1978-80
                                           1978         1979         1980
                                          (£000)       (£000)        (£000)
            Expenses
              Train Working                7,388        9,082       11,703
              Terminals                    3,522        4,141        5,216
              Total                      10,910       13,223        16,919
            Earnings                     16,501       19,001        23,720
            Contribution                   5,591        5,778        6,801

             Operating Ratio (%)                 66       70             71

             Loaded train miles (000)      3,251        3,408         3,451

             Per loaded train mile (£)
             Expenses
               Train Working                   2-27      2-66          3-39
               Terminals                       1-08      1-22          1-51
               Total                           3-36      3-88          4-90
             Earnings                          5-08      5-57          6-87
             Contribution                      1-72      1-69          1-97

             Passenger miles (millions)    408-4        442-5         449-6

             Per passenger mile (pence)
             Expenses
               Train Working                   1-81      2-05          2-60
               Terminals                       0-86      0-94          1-16
               Total                           2-67      2-99          3-76
             Earnings                          4-04      4-29          5-27
             Contribution                      1-37      1-30          1-51


 Source: BRB PP & CCA

                                               252
Financial data
  8.8. Table 1 shows the PP and CCA data for the service from 1978 to
1980. (Earlier figures are not available because the profit centres in this
area were rearranged in 1978.) The service makes a substantial contribution
to indirect costs, having an operating ratio of 70 or so, not very much
above that of the Inter-City sector.

Demand structure
  8.9. Over the decade, the total number of passengers from the South
East Division arriving in the central area in the morning peak declined by
nearly 11 per cent and the decline is expected to continue at about 2-5
per cent per annum until 1981.
  8.10. This part of the network is very crowded. The 1979 terminal counts
show that 27 trains arriving at Charing Cross or Cannon Street in the peak
hour (08.15 to 09.14) had load factors of 100 per cent or more and, of
these 27, 16 originated from within the London—Gillingham service at either
Dartford, Gillingham, Sidcup, Barnehurst or Slade Green. Table 2 shows
the load factors oh the peak hour Dartford trains in 1979.

TABLE 2.   Load factors on peak hour Dartford—London trains 1979
                   Arrival time      London terminus     Load factor

                  08.17                   Cannon Street       95
                  08.22                   Charing Cross      136
                  08.28                   Charing Cross      151
                  08.37                   Cannon Street      137
                  08.41                   Charing Cross      113
                  08.48                   Charing Cross      141
                  08.57                   Cannon Street       94
                  09.02                   Charing Cross      110
                  09.08                   Charing Cross      128

                  Source: BRB Terminal Counts.


The journey time from Dartford is 37-48 minutes to Charing Cross and
31-44 minutes to Cannon Street. SR state that standing from Dartford via
Sidcup begins at Sidcup/New Eltham, and from Welling on the route via
Bexleyheath. This means that commuters may be standing for about 27
minutes, longer than the 'acceptable' time of 15-20 minutes, identified by
market research commissioned by BRB in 1978. Table 3 shows the peak
hour load factors on the Gillingham trains.
TABLE 3.   Load factors on peak hour Gillingham—London trains 1979
                   Arrival time      London terminus     Load factor

                  08.21                   Cannon Street       90
                  08.32                   Charing Cross      120
                  08.41                   Cannon Street      106
                  08.52                   Charing Cross      122
                  09.01                   Cannon Street       86
                  09.12                   Charing Cross       97

                     Source: BRB Terminal Counts.

                                                 253
These trains also pick up at Dartford; the Charing Cross train then runs
fast to London Bridge taking 28 minutes to do this part of the journey,
so on two of these trains people were standing for at least 28 minutes.
The Cannon Street trains also pick up at Abbey Wood and Woolwich
Arsenal; only one had a load factor of over 100 per cent so it is less likely
that people were standing for more than 20 minutes on the Gillingham to
Cannon Street journey.

Future
  8.11. The number of passengers arriving in central London from South
Eastern Division stations is forecast to decline in the next few years (see
paragraph 6.13 of this appendix).

   8.12. All the significant timetable changes envisaged in the next five years
relate to main line and Outer Suburban services.

Competition
  8.13. The Southern Region share of all mode commuting into central
London has remained remarkably stable between about 26 per cent and
24 i per cent over the last decade, although outside central London rail
plays a relatively minor role in daily work journeys.
   8.14. There is little competition from LT rail services on these routes.
Competition from car journeys into London is unlikely to have much effect
on the rail service; the M20 is too far south to compete with this service
and the A2/M2 is not at dual carriageway standard close to central London,
although for shorter joutneys from Gillingham towards London the M2 is
a reasonable alternative to rail. Coach services operate along the A2/M2
and the M20 but only compete for a small segment of the total market.
   8.15. For local journeys there is competition from private car and the
comprehensive suburban road network, although car parking is a problem
in most shopping centres. There is also competition from LT buses.

Quality of service
 8.17. Table 4 gives the performance data for this service for June and
November 1979.
TABLE 4.   Punctuality—London to Gillingham via Dartford service
                                           Percentage of London-bound
                                                trains run arriving:
                                           On time          Within 5 minutes
            June 1979
             Weekday peak                     63                   92
             Weekday off-peak                 91                   97
             Weekends                         85                   97
             November 1979
             Weekdays                         68                   90
             Weekends                         76                   95

              Source: BRB.

                                           254
The table shows that a high proporton of the trains which run arrive within
five minutes of their scheduled arrival time on weekdays and weekends.
BRB were unable to supply data on cancellations by service in SE Division.

Investment
   8.18. There are numerous infrastructure problems on these sections of
route including lengthy sections of the inner London routes on viaduct,
sharply curved sections of rail and complex junctions (eg on the North
Kent line between Slade Green and Dartford) and the ever present possi-
bility of chalk falls on the Higham/Strood section. Major maintenance/
renewal work will be carried out on the Cannon Street and Blackfriars
river bridges over the next five years.
  8.19. At Eltham Well Hall, in connection with the Rochester Way Relief
Road, substantial bridge works and rebuilding of the station are envisaged
involving expenditure of the order of £3 million spread over 1981 to 1985.
The expenditure is not by BRB, but the effect on the railway could be
considerable.
   8.20. The most important investment on these lines in the last few years
has been completion of the London Bridge resignalling scheme placing the
control over the major portion of the Gillingham service under the new
London Bridge and Dartford signal boxes. The completion of the Victoria
resignalling scheme should improve the working to and from Blackfriars
and Holborn Viaduct.


                    9. London to Sevenoaks via Swanley

Introduction
  9.1. The London to Sevenoaks via Swanley service is included in South
East Division timetable no 195. The individual services are listed below
and are shown in the map at paragraph 6.1 of this appendix.
     Victoria/Holborn Viaduct to Sevenoaks via Catford and Swanley
     Victoria to Orpington via Penge East
     Holborn Viaduct/Blackf riars to Orpington via Penge East

The services
  9.2. These Inner Suburban services are operated exclusively with electri-
cal multiple units class 415/1/2 (former code name 4 EPB) which were
built in the years 1951 to 1963. There are approximately 800 vehicles of
this type on Southern Region, of which 41 units are allocated to this service
group. Each unit (four coaches) seats 386 passengers second class.

   9.3. The basic off-peak service for London to Sevenoaks via Gatford
and Swanley is half-hourly, calling at all stations and a total journey time
to Sevenoaks of 60 minutes. The London to Orpington via Penge East and
Bromley South is also a basic half-hour service off-peak, calling at all
stations and with a total journey time to Orpington of 34 minutes.
                                    255
Input from commuter associations
   9.4. The Sevenoaks and District Rail Travellers' Association commented
that the London (Holborn Viaduct) to Sevenoaks service is of limited use,
because most passengers use at peak times the main line to Charing Cross/
Cannon Street. Although Blackfriars has direct links to LT, Holborn Via-
duct has no LT connections, which is a considerable disadvantage. Those
living on the Shoreham and Eynsford (via Swanley) route have to use the
service, which is the only one passing through those stations. Connections
at Otford for Maidstone and at Swanley for the Medway towns are used
by a few Sevenoaks commuters but the connections are reported to be
unreliable. The Association state that cancellations during the peak are fre-
quent, once or twice a week for a regular user. Timekeeping is stated to
be satisfactory, except where stop orders1 are applied following cancella-
tions from services starting at Shortlands.

   9.5. The Orpington District Rail Passengers' Association reported that
the incidence of cancellation in South Eastern Division is far too high.
A log kept by one of their members during August 1979 showed 35 per
cent of the trains cancelled for the morning journey and 21 per cent can-
celled for the evening journey. The highest priority among a poll of Associ-
ation members was for improved punctuality which was said to be only
around 70 per cent at Petts Wood and Orpington. Among general matters
raised by the Orpington Association were aged and dirty rolling stock,
stations needing equipment, shortages of staff, lack of incentive among
staff, poor lines of communication to passengers and inconvenient services.

Financial data
  9.6. Data relating to budgeted direct expenses, earnings, loaded train
miles, passenger miles and derived data are gathered together in Table 1.
There was a useful improvement in the operating ratio over the period
1976 to 1978, when earnings moved ahead of expenses. Since 1978, how-
ever, expenses, particularly for train working, have moved ahead relatively
fast and the operating ratio has deteriorated to 84 per cent, almost to the
level of 1977.

Demand structure
  9.7. The load factors for these particular services into Victoria have not
been studied for the purpose of the present report. The loadings of the morn-
ing peak period of trains from Sevenoaks and Orpington into Charing Cross
and Cannon Street (1979 terminal census) have, however, been studied.
Only one of the Sevenoaks trains (the 08.17) had an excess of passengers
over seats during the whole of the morning peak. On the other hand, two
of the trains from Orpington (08.04 and 08.15) had a considerable excess
(120 to 220) of passengers over the seats in these trains. This excess loading
effect is very sharp; it is worth noting that only ten minutes before the
08.04 or ten minutes after the 08.15 there were trains with spare seats.


  Additional stops ordered to be made at intermediate stations.
                                           256
TABLE 1. Selected financial data for London—Sevenoaks via Swanley/Orpington 1976-80
                                7976        1977        7975         7979         1980
                                £0)
                               (00          £0)
                                           (00         (00
                                                         £0)          £0)
                                                                    (00            £0)
                                                                                 (00
Expenses
  Train Working                2,551       2,580        2,659        3,206        4,210
  Terminals                    1,499       1,473        1,796        1,970        2,330
  Total                        4,050       4,053        4,455        5,176        6,540
Earnings                       4,402       4,722        5,738        6,360        7,740
Contribution                     352         660        1,283        1,184        1,204
Operating Ratio (%)             92           86          78            81          84

Loaded train miles (000)     1,423        1,347        1,373        1,325        1,323
Per loaded train mile (£)
Expenses
  Train Working               1-79         1-92        1-93         2-42         3-18
  Terminals                   1-06         1-09        1-31         1-49         1-76
  Total                       2-85         3-01        3-24         3-91         4-94
Earnings                      3-09         3-51        4-18         4-80         5-85
Contribution                  0-24         0-50        0-94         0-89         0-91

Passenger miles (millions)    NA          138-9       127-8        135-4        134-8

Per passenger mile (pence)
Expenses
  Train Working                            1-86        2-08         2-37         3-12
  Terminals                                1-06        1-41         1-45         1-73
  Total                  >    NA           2-92        3-49         3-82         4-85
Earnings                                  3-40         4-49         4-70         5-74
Contribution           ^                  0-48         1-00         0-88         0-89
 Source: BRB PP & CCA




It must be stressed that this information refers to services into Charing
Cross and Cannon Street and not the case study services into Victoria,
Holborn Viaduct or Blackfriars.

Future
  9.8. The number of passengers arriving in central London from South
Eastern Division over the next few years is forecast to decline (see para-
graph 6.13 of this appendix). No major changes are envisaged for the Inner
Suburban services.

Competition
   9.9. The principal roads which could be considered to provide competi-
tion to the rail services in this case study are the A21 and the A20/M20.
Coach services operate along each, but compete only for small segments
of the total market. Private cars are used extensively for journeys between
various points on the route for business and pleasure purposes but are
                                    257
limited by road congestion for daily commuting into central London. It
is the contention of the commuter associations that Southern Region ser-
vices have a 'monopoly' for rapid daily commuter travel into London,
because of the road congestion. The dominance of commuting in these
services is indicated by the breakdown of estimated passenger miles for
1980 for this group of services:
     Predicted passenger miles—full                 30,075,000
                               —reduced             22,251,000
                               —seasons             82,560,000
     Total passenger miles     —                   134,842,000

Labour supply
  9.10. The establishment and actual numbers of drivers, drivers' assistants
and guards at the South East Division train crew establishments is contained
in Table 3 of the Kent Coast case study at paragraph 6.9. At the depots
supplying train crews to these services there is a moderate shortfall of
drivers, but proportionately a much more serious deficit of guards. (Actual
guards in SE Division 768 versus an establishment of 910, ie a deficit of
142.) It has been shown in the chapter on Quality of Service that the absence
of a guard is usually the most important cause of train cancellations in
South Eastern Division and indeed generally in L & SE.

Quality of service
   9.11. In Table 2 the punctuality of services in the peak and off-peak
is summarised for the months of June and November 1979.

TABLE 2.    Punctuality—London to Sevenoaks via Swanley service
                                           Percentage of London-bound
                                                 trains run arriving:
                                            On time          Within 5 minutes
             June 1979
             Weekday peak                      51                   86
              Weekday off-peak                 87                   98
              Weekend                          81                   98

                November 1979
                Weekday                         73                 91
                Weekend                         78                 95

  Source: BRB



Several characteristics of the congested services in South Eastern Division
are apparent. Peak services generally show a much lower level of punctua-
lity than off-peak. The level of only 51 per cent right time arrivals during
1979 in the peak is well below the Divisional target, let alone that suggested
in 'Towards a Commuters' Charter'. The Division comments that the ser-
vice 'suffers particularly as a reaction to cancellations within the suburban
area and the need to make additional stops, because of tight timing and
congestion in areas such as Medway, Shortlands, Orpington etc and reaction
of sensitive technical failures'. Another factor in South Eastern Division
                                      258
is that trains are timed with 20 seconds stops at many stations and short
turn-rounds at terminal points. Fast and stopping trains share the same
tracks for the most part so that the whole service is susceptible to wide-
spread disruption if any one service is delayed. When the Victoria re-signall-
ing scheme is completed in 1983, the working to and from Victoria, Black-
friars and Holborn Viaduct should be considerably improved. It was stated
by the Board that the introduction of the new power box at London Bridge
raised the 'right time' level by 10 per cent.

  9.12. South Eastern Division consider that the working of boat trains
between Victoria and Folkestone/Dover has a strong influence on and must
be regarded as a constraining factor in respect of overall service pattern
and resource requirements. In particular, the level of boat train pathways
prevents the operation of a commercially desirable off-peak of 20 minute
intervals (compared with 30 minute intervals at present—see paragraph 9.3)
on the Victoria to Orpington via Penge East route.

Investment
   9.13. The Victoria realignment and re-signalling scheme is now in full
swing. All signalling on the central suburban routes will be renewed under
this re-signalling scheme. The class 415 (former name EPB) EMU is widely
used for suburban services on the Southern Region. In all, 900 vehicles
are to be refurbished by 1987. These will improve the interior environment
for passengers, with new seating, lighting and services etc. Additional clean-
ing staff are being recruited and schemes to provide new exterior washing
machines at Ashford and Hither Green are being progressed.




                                    259
                                     APPENDIX 3
                           (referred to in paragraph 3.4)
                           Calculation of PSO Grant
  1. The grant for the rail passenger business is calculated annually, in
advance. Towards the end of each calendar year (the Board's year of
account) the Board submit a claim for the following year, based on their
revenue budget and drawn up in accordance with principles and procedures
agreed between the Board and the Department of Transport (DTp). The
amount of grant is the forecast shortfall between the receipts and total
costs of the rail passenger business. The claim is discussed and agreed
with the Department. Payments are made weekly and actual performance
against budget is monitored on a regular basis. The level of grant can be
adjusted on the basis of the factors set out in the annex to this appendix.
These adjustments can be made either during the year or after the year
end.
   2. Details of the PSO grant payment are published in the Board's Annual
Report and Accounts in the form of the three related tables set out below
for 1979. Table 1 sets out direct expenses and revenue of the four sectors
which comprise the rail passenger business and shows the contribution
(positive or negative) which each sector has made towards the indirect costs
of the railway business as a whole. Table 2 sets out these indirect costs
and, by deduction of those attributed to the Freight and Parcels sectors,
shows the total indirect costs deemed to relate to the rail passenger business.
In the third table, the net contribution from the passenger business sectors
is deducted from the indirect costs attributed to the passenger business.
Adjustments are made for price variations and other income. The addition
of the special replacement allowance for rail passenger assets indicates the
total amount payable, which, after deduction of the amount payable by
PTEs, gives the final amount payable by central Government.

  3. The inflation factor applied to the PSO grant cash limit is the GDP
deflator. Over two-thirds of the costs of the rail passenger business com-
prise labour, fuel and steel. With inflation in respect of these costs running
ahead of that relating to GDP, the effect is to tighten the constraint imposed
by the cash limit.

TABLE 1. Direct expenses and revenue (Estimated results 1979)
                                                                contribution
                                          direct                 to indirect
                                         expenses     revenue       costs
                                            £m          £m           £m
            Inter-City                     238          390          152
            London and South East          227          311           84
            Other provincial services        95          53        - 42
            PTE services                     59          47        - 12

                                           619          801         182

                                          260
TABLE 2.     Indirect costs
                                                            £m           £m
               Track, signalling and electric track
               equipment (Freight and Passenger)
               Scottish Region                              57
               Eastern Region                              121
               London Midland Region                       134
               Western Region                               55
               Southern Region                              92
               Headquarters and miscellaneous               22

               Total                                       481
               Less: Costs charged to freight and par-
               cels                                         96

               Total passenger                                           385

               Other (includes administration,
               depreciation and interest)
               All business sectors                        367
               Less: Freight and parcels                    93

               Passenger                                                 274

               Total indirect costs (passenger)                          659

TABLE 3.    Payments in respect of the Public Service Obligation (Section 3 Railways Act 1974)
                                                           £m            £m
               Total indirect costs (passenger) from
               Table 2                                                   659
               Less: net contribution from Business
               sectors from Table 1                        182
               Other income                                  4           186

                                                                         473

               Special replacement allowance                              57
               Price variations                                            1

                                                                         531
                                                                          47

               Payments by Central Government                           484


 Source: BRB Annual Report and Accounts 1979



                                     ANNEX TO APPENDIX 3
                Permitted Adjustments to PSO Grant Claim
Adjustments to the amount claimed will be made during or after the claim
year to take account of the effect on the finances of the passenger business
in that year of the following factors:
    (i) Major industrial disputes, national emergencies or major disasters;
   (ii) Government intervention on prices or pricing;
                                               261
  (iii) Changes during the course of the year in the form or scope of the
        obligation to operate the passenger system or on the basis of calculat-
        ing the claim;
  (iv) Significant changes in expenditure of a capital nature on services
        or facilities which have been provided for in the claim;
   (v) Effects of changes in taxation including rating, social security and
        other forms of employers' contributions which may apply to the rail-
        way business and which the Board could not be expected either to
        foresee or to make provision for in their budget;
  (vi) Variation in the interest calculated retrospectively to be attributable
        to the passenger system compared with the forecast in the claim;
 (vii) After allowing for factors (i) to (vi) additional losses arising from
        increases in staff costs beyond those provided for in the claim may
        be met in full both for a period not exceeding three months from
        the time that the amount of such increases becomes known to the
        Board and for any period of back dating of such increases;
(viii) After allowing for the preceding factors, the claim will be adjusted
        to allow for the difference between the Board's forecast effect of
        material and services price level changes, included in the claim, and
        the actual changes identified during the year;
  (ix) After allowing for the preceding factors, any additional loss, at con-
        stant prices, which is attributable to the passenger sector, for which
        provision was not made in the Board's central budget and which
        does not exceed a predetermined percentage of the costs attributable
        to the passenger system. The percentage to be applied will be
        reviewed annually when the claim is submitted;
   (x) Finally, after the end of the claim year a proportion of any remaining
        unbudgeted net changes in revenue or costs after allowing for those
        mentioned in the preceding factors. The proportion to be based on
        the ratio of compensation to the total costs of the passenger system
        in the original claim.




                                    262
                                  APPENDIX 4
                         (referred to in paragraph 4.5)
              Evidence submitted on Quality of Service
Martin and Voorhees Associates' study for BRB—October 1978
   1. Martin and Voorhees Associates concluded that commuters in L &
SE require a highly predictable and dependable transport schedule. Certain
criteria stood out as being far more important than any others. These were:
     Punctual departure and arrival
     A seat, without being jostled by other passengers
     A clean train interior
     Clean windows.

  2. Other factors such as the running speeds of the train, the quality of
the rolling stock, frequency of service and various amenity matters were
seen as being considerably less important.

The Centra] Transport Consultative Committee and the Transport Users'
Consultative Committees in L & SE
   3. This joint submission to the Commission stressed reliability as the
commuter's first priority, followed by the demand for better information
about variations in the service and a good travelling environment, both
on and off the train. Reliability was taken to include timetabling, punctua-
lity, cancellations and train formations and was considered to assume prior-
ity over all other performance indicators.

Evening Standard Commuter Club
   4. The Evening Standard Commuter Club, which at the time claimed
some 24,000 members, presented a report to the Commission in March
 1980. The single biggest grievance of the commuters was reported to be
the irregularity of services, ie cancellations and late running. The Commuter
Club quoted the statistics that there were only 83 • 1 per cent of trains arriving
at the right (timetable) time on the Southern Region South Eastern Division
in the morning peak during October 1979 and only 64-1 per cent in the
evening peak on the Southern Region Central Division in the same period.
Numerous individual services, mainly on the Southern and Eastern Regions
were listed for persistent cancellations and lateness. Other points mentioned
by the Evening Standard survey included the level of fares (running ahead
of RPI since 1976 but see also paragraph 18 of Appendix 13), passenger
information, lack of marketing of commuter lines, the attitude of BRB staff
and ticket selling procedures.

Consumers' Association
   5. The Consumers' Association surveyed commuters at 24 suburban
stations on a particular day during May 1980, by means of a questionnaire.
The lines were selected by the Consumers' Association to cover most of
the counties bordering on London and also to include different lengths of
                                    263
journey. Overall, 61 per cent of those completing the questionnaires had
experienced cancelled trains, 74 per cent late trains and 13 per cent early
trains, during the previous month. The reasons given for cancellations were
mainly shortage of staff, followed by mechanical failure, although this
varies greatly between services.

   6. 20 per cent of the commuters who replied said that they often had
difficulty finding a seat and 17 per cent fairly often. Some lines were much
more crowded than others, particularly those in Essex and Hampshire-
Surrey. As many as 75 per cent of commuters found the trains full or
crowded when they boarded them between 7.31 am and 8.15 am at Ilford
or Chadwell Heath. Travelling home from work, the worst lines for crowds
at the beginning of the journey were found to be those to destinations
in Essex, East Kent and Hampshire-Surrey.

   7. Dirty trains were perceived as more of a problem on the journey home
from work (41 per cent) than on the journey to work (32 per cent). Obviously
the trains become dirtier during the day. However, the Consumers' Associ-
ation found large variations. 67 per cent of people travelling to work from
Gravesend described their trains as dirty, with Shenfield almost as bad,
while only 3 per cent of the correspondents from Potters Bar thought that
their trains were dirty. On the return journey, the worst services were
reported to be East Kent, Kent-Sussex and Essex, while the Hertfordshire
line into Kings Cross was the best.

   8. Satisfaction concerning information about delays and cancellations
varied a great deal from one line to another. The Consumers' Association
found a low point of only 26 per cent satisfied at Gillingham and Chadwell
Heath, but 62 per cent at Surbiton and 59 per cent at Tunbridge Wells
were satisfied. For the London termini, the most desired improvement,
cited by half the respondents, was better-informed BRB staff, followed
by clearer loud-speakers at stations and the provision of public address
systems on trains. There were wide variations, however, between the
opinions on different termini. There were few complaints on the Hertford-
shire lines into Kings Cross and Moorgate, presumably because good public
address systems already operate on the new trains on those services.

   9. The Board have told us that they consider that the sampling procedures
used in the survey may have produced results which were not fully represen-
tative of the total commuter population.

Commuter Associations and other bodies
   10. Evidence was invited from 14 Railway Commuter Associations in
areas connected with case studies and 13 responded. In addition, evidence
was submitted by Commuter Associations outside those areas, and by a
number of other bodies including Local Authorities. It is difficult to genera-
lise from such evidence, because it is almost entirely limited to the rail
services to and from particular areas.
                                     264
   11. An analysis of the evidence submitted indicates the concerns of these
organisations to be in approximately the following order, with the most
frequently-mentioned topics listed first:
     Cancellations
     Lack of information to passengers, especially when disruption occurs
     Old or uncomfortable rolling stock
     Lack of punctuality
     Overcrowding
     Length of journey time (especially on Southern Region)
     Short trains
     Train service frequency
     Level of fares
     Dirty trains
     Passenger facilities.

Summary of public correspondence to BRB
   12. BRB maintain a register, under certain headings, of public correspon-
dence received in L & SE. This is summarised in the following table, for
the years 1975 to 1979 inclusive.


                              Summary of public correspondence in L & SE
Complaints                             1975              1976             1977              1978    1979
Passenger closures and
service withdrawals                      3%               510              112                86      180
Timekeeping                            1,968            2,180            2,108             2,949    3,082
Train service quality*                 2,034            1,955            2,569             4,233    5,033
Passenger information                  2,199            2,525            2,513             3,749    3,065
Conduct of staff                       1,492            1,510            1,682             2,217    2,024
Overcrowding                             411              451              658               817      839
Suitability of service!                1,409            1,860            2,241             3,427    1,853
Fares                                  1,512            1,315            1,542             2,288    2,246
Reservations                             573              363              460               769      739
Terminal quality—       "^
  (i) Organisation                                                                           691      647
 (ii) Accommodation       >•           1,325            1,414             1,131              599      393
(iii) Cleanliness                                                                            363      393
(iv) Vandalism          J                                                                    213      165
Catering                                 105              101               164              221      306
Industrial disputes                       —                83             1,179              2%       170
Others                                 2,341            1,856             1,914            2,392    2,569

Total                                15,765            16,123           18,273           25,310    23,704

Letters of appreciation                1,259            1,307             1,579            1,979    1,510

 Source: BRB
 * Covers the quality of rolling stock, comfort, cleanliness and general conditions of travel,
 t Includes matters such as the convenience of the timetable and connections between services.

The main areas of concern in recent years have been timekeeping, train
service quality and passenger information. There was an upsurge in com-
plaints about suitability of service in 1978, possibly connected with changes
to Southern Region timetable in that year.
                                       265
Individual letters to the Commission
   13. It is even more difficult to generalise from letters received by the
Commission from individual members of the commuting public than it is
from submissions received from Commuter Associations etc. Individual
commuters were primarily concerned with their own personal journeys to
and from work, involving the connections and the choice of trains between
different London termini. An analysis of these letters indicates the concerns
of correspondents to be in approximately the following order, with the most
frequently-mentioned topics listed first:
     Service availability (including frequency of trains and timetable
     changes)
     Cancellations
     Fares
     Punctuality
     Information
     Adequacy of rolling stock (ie insufficient seats)
     Cleanliness of train (internal)
     Cleanliness of station.




                                    266
                                 APPENDIX 5
                       (referred to in paragraph 4.14)

Extract from BRB's Publication 'Towards a Commuters'
                     Charter'
Suggested standards for commuter services in London and the South East
Based upon the expectations which commuters have expressed, the overall
standards which are required on London's commuter services are:

    Performance
    The present frequencies of services to be maintained, but adjustments
    will be necessary to reflect changes in demand—up or down—consis-
    tent with an acceptable balance between costs of provision and social
    benefits or disbenefits caused.
      Journey times shortened as much as possible by reducing interme-
    diate station stops in some cases and by the improved speeds and acce-
    leration of the trains.
      An objective to be set of no more than 1 per cent per year of the
    total train service cancelled. Within this level cancellations to be
    planned so as to cause the minimum inconvenience to passengers.
      Punctuality maintained at a high level. 95 per cent of departures
    to be on time and at least 95 per cent of arrivals to be within five
    minutes of advertised time.

    Comfort
    A seat to be provided for all longer distance travellers (although it
    may not always be possible to achieve this during the home going peak
    because of the bunching of journeys).
       It is not possible to be specific about seat provision on the shorter
    journeys, but the aim should be at least 70 per cent of passengers
    seated.
      Coaches to be of saloon type with through access between vehicles,
    bright interiors and a public address system. First class accommodation
    on certain services and toilets on trains for longer distance journeys.

       All trains to be exterior washed regularly, swept out after each return
    trip; seats to be brushed and toilets cleaned daily. Walls and floors
    to be washed at least monthly and graffiti to be cleared currently.
       Approximately 25 per cent of the accommodation to be available
    for smokers and the standards of heating, ventilation and riding im-
    proved.
    Stations and information services
    Stations to provide shelter from the weather—heated where reasonably
    possible—and platforms well lit and kept clear of litter. Toilets to be
    provided at all but the smallest stations and kept clean at all times.
    Passengers (and people meeting them) to be informed of the running
                                     267
of trains by improved information links from control centres and ade-
quate notice boards and public address systems. More pay telephones
to be available. Better provision of taxi facilities.
   Bus and train timetables to be" better co-ordinated and connections
better supervised: bus stands and waiting areas to be as near as possible
to station buildings.
   More information to be provided to local radio stations about cancel-
lations, forecasts of delay, withdrawal of facilities, and other opera-
tional difficulties.




                               268
                                APPENDIX 6
                      (referred to in paragraph 4.29)

     Carriage Cleaning Procedures in London & South East

 1. This appendix sets out the procedures for carriage cleaning in L &
SE. First the BRB national standards are summarised, and then the proce-
dures for the monitoring and control of cleaning is described for:
     South Eastern Division of Southern Region
     Kings Cross Division of Eastern Region
     London Division of Western Region
     London Division of London Midland Region.



The BRB national standards for carriage cleaning
 2. The standards set out by BRB relate to six categories of cleaning
which includes one special procedure relating to health hazards and disinfec-
tion. The other five categories are grouped usually into three cleaning sche-
dules for operational convenience. The three operational schedules are sum-
marised below.

(i) Heavy cleaning
     This is to be carried out on each unit at least once every four to
     six weeks. The schedule includes:
     (a} sweep unit
     (b) clean walls, ceilings, doors
     (c) wash floors
     (d) vacuum clean upholstery and carpets
     (e) shampoo upholstery and carpets
     (/) clean all internal fittings and glass
     (g) leather internal windows
     (h) clean and replenish toilets
     (0 wash basins and scrub seal and polish toilet floors
     0) Exmover wash, then water wash exterior (ie wash with a slightly
         acid solution called Exmover).

  (ii) Light cleaning
       This is to be carried out daily. The schedule includes:
       (d) sweep unit
       (b) clean and replenish toilets
       (c) wash hand basins and renew towels
       (d) wash toilet floor
       (e) exteriors water wash daily (wash with Exmover once a week)
       (/) refill water tanks.
                                    269
 (iii) Turn round cleaning
       This is to be carried out wherever the stock turns round at a terminal
       station or if stock is berthed for under two hours. The schedule
       includes:
       (a) water wash windows of cab
       (b) light sweep unit
       (c) replenish toilets
       (d) refill water tanks
       (e) clean toilet.

Monitoring and control of carriage cleaning
   3. The system in South Eastern Division. Until recently in this Division
a cleaning record sheet was kept inside each unit to be checked if and
when it returned to a depot. This resulted in some particular units con-
tinuously failing to receive periodic cleans but not being recognised. Overall
monitoring was based only on the number of stock units cleaned as a per-
centage of expected numbers during a period but not on an individual unit
basis.

   4. The Division introduced in 1979 a new monitoring system which exerts
a measure of control on each unit. Records are kept of the type of cleaning
carried out, in date order, from which future work can be planned. Particu-
lar units are now allocated to particular depots and master history sheets
are kept both at depot and Divisional headquarters.

   5. The identification numbers of units cleaned and type of cleaning car-
ried out during each shift is recorded at each depot. Station managers make
a daily report of number of units cleaned and type of cleaning. The totals
are summarised on a carriage cleaning record sheet which shows for periods
of one year the stock by unit number and the work performed on each.

  6. Every Wednesday a list is drawn up of all heavy cleaning work due
to be done during the following week and the units on which it is to be
performed. Each depot supervisor looks out for these units and when they
return to his depot, carries out the scheduled work. However, arrival at
the depot is not predictable for suburban units and the workload on a depot
varies from period to period. In consequence some depots may be over-
loaded in some periods and cleaning intervals may have to be extended.

   7. The 'orange card' system. Throughout Southern Region all the Divi-
sional management teams carry an 'orange card' on which they record any
deficiencies they observe during their daily travelling. A record is kept
of the number of units inspected and this is returned to the appropriate
Area Managers.

  8. A new structure for carriage cleaning staff has been introduced into
the region which has made it possible to allocate responsibility for perfor-
mance and quality control within a depot. The old system of six cleaners
to one charge hand has been replaced by allocation of the work to a senior
                                    270
railman who is responsible for confirming that the work has been carried
out to the required standard. The new structure, which has been in operation
since 1978, has raised the status of cleaner and enabled promotion through
the cleaning grades to supervisor.
  9. The beneficial effects of the new monitoring system on performance
are discussed at paragraph 4.93 of the report.
   10. The system in Liverpool Street Division. The history of cleaning in
the Liverpool Street Division is very similar. Prior to 1978 the monitoring
system was totally inadequate, units arrived randomly at depots and were
cleaned as appropriate, records were kept of the number of units cleaned
but there was no recording system for individual units. Indeed, depots did
not know how many units they should expect to clean. Particular units
could accumulate a long backlog of cleaning deficiencies which was
impossible to monitor.
   11. A new and comprehensive system is now being implemented in the
Division. Each unit is allocated to a specified depot to which it must return
every day. Monitoring is now on a unit basis. The cleaning history in type
of clean and date order is recorded against each unit. It is the depot super-
visors' responsibility to ensure that units are cleaned to schedule. If a par-
ticular unit is misplaced from its normal depot and therefore fails to be
cleaned, the depot supervisor contacts the Divisional EMU controller to
request that the unit be returned to the appropriate depot for cleaning.
   12. The system is now fully operational on the LTS stock at East Ham
depot and also at Ilford. It is expected that the other depots will be opera-
tional within one year. Cleaning performance will be part of the Manage-
ment Audit process when this is implemented at area level.
   13. The system in Kings Cross Division. The operating and maintenance
requirements in the Kings Cross Division prevent stock being allocated
to particular depots for berthing. Daily washing and light cleaning is carried
out on each unit as it returns to a depot. The Hertford depot has no external
washing facilities, and stock berthing there misses the daily wash until the
rotation of the stock schedules provides berthing at one of the other depots.
This will not normally be longer than a few days. Each depot keeps a
record of the number of units washed and cleaned daily.
   14. All periodic heavy cleaning is carried out at Hornsey depot. Return
of stock units to Hornsey is linked to the mandatory maintenance schedules.
Each unit is therefore pre-diagrammed for heavy cleaning. A cleaning
record sheet for each .unit is maintained at the depot giving the history
of type of clean in date order. If for reasons of stock shortage or operational
needs any particular unit fails to receive its periodic cleaning then the depot
manager can arrange through Divisional control for that particular unit to
be diagrammed back to Hornsey.
  15. In the event of staff shortage the depot manager at Hornsey will
make decisions concerning cleaning priorities.
                                  271
   16. The policy is to try to maintain the heavy cleaning schedules by reduc-
ing the effort on daily cleaning. Even so the heavy cleaning performance
is often not satisfactory. The Division is now introducing a new reporting
system in which returns are made weekly showing performance against
plan, and man hours against plan.
   17. The system in the London Division of Western Region. In the Western
Region daily washing and cleaning is carried out at the berthing depots
to which the units are allocated. As each unit returns, the cleaning needs
are assessed by pre-inspection by a supervisor. Priorities are set according
to the staff resource availability; in the event of staff shortage the units
in best condition may not receive the daily scheduled clean.
   18. Diagramming of units for periodic heavy cleaning is linked to the
mandatory maintenance schedules. A cleaning record sheet is maintained
in the appropriate depot for units individually. The heavy cleaning is carried
out when the unit returns for maintenance. From the record sheets it is
clear to the supervisor if any units are missing the schedule. He has no
authority to recall the unit but gives it priority on the next visit.
   19. The system in the London Division of London Midland Region. For
daily cleaning, units are allocated to a particular depot. Records are kept
at each depot of the units cleaned each day but these are not collated in
terms of individual units. The Division's policy is to clean each unit daily
even if this means that the quality of the clean has to be reduced.
  20. The periodic heavy cleaning of DC units is carried out at a single
depot, which maintains an individual record sheet for each unit. Any units
which miss a periodic clean will be apparent and action taken on the next
visit.
   21. For AC units the monitoring and control is more difficult because
the AC units travel into other Divisions. AC units are not allocated to a
particular depot for heavy cleaning. All units when returning to a depot
are inspected visually by the shift supervisor and appropriate cleaning prior-
ities set.
   22. Each depot dealing with AC units keeps a record of the units cleaned,
but no information concerning the servicing carried out in other depots
either inside or outside the Division. There is no method of monitoring
units which have missed a scheduled clean. The only corrective action lies
in the visual inspection when a unit enters a depot.

  23. Area Managers make weekly returns of performance in terms of units
cleaned against number of units scheduled in aggregate. They are required
to make a 10 per cent sample inspection of stock weekly.




                                     272
                                APPENDIX 7
                      (referred to in paragraph 4.61)

                     Trends in Quality of Service
  1. This appendix presents the full    trend information examined by the
Commission to assess the quality of     service offered to rail users in L &
SE, and the nature of changes since      1974. The information is presented
under the following headings:
    —general level of service
    —safety
    —train punctuality
    —cancellations
and the paragraphs which refer in the   main text of Chapter 4 are noted.


General level of service
  2. Figure 1 shows the number of trains run annually in
     South Eastern Division
    Central Division
    South Western Division
    Liverpool Street Division
    Kings Cross Division
    WR London Division
between the years 1974 and 1979. Paragraph 4.62 of the report refers.

Safety
  3. Figure 2 shows the trend in safety for BRB in terms of deaths per
100 million passenger miles over the years 1968 to 1979, compared with
public service vehicles, cars and taxis, and two-wheeled motor vehicles.
Paragraph 4.64 of the report refers.


Train punctuality
  4. Figures 3 and 4 show the trends over the years 1974 to 1979 for the
percentage of trains with right time arrivals and the percentage arriving
within five minutes of the scheduled time. The measure includes all sche-
duled passenger trains over a 24 hour period over the full week. The trends
are shown for:
     South Eastern Division
     Central Division
     South Western Division
     Liverpool Street Division
     Kings Cross Division
Figure 4 also shows the BRB average for trains arriving within five minutes.
Paragraph 4.65 of the report refers.
                                    273
                                                   FIGURE 1
                           Total Number of Trains Run 1974-79




         650.                                                                                       150




         600


         550                                                                                        100



Number                                                                                              Number
  of                                                                                                   of
 trains                                                                                              trains
        500                                                                                         ('OOOs
COOOs)




         1*50                                                                                        50




         400
                              O— O —Q—G—0 — O—O — O—0—Q— O—Q—Q—<?—(9 — G>—0—O—O—(9 — O—G>—




                                          1975         1976          1977         17
                                                                                   98        1979

                 NOTE;   1971* Liverpool St figures do not include January


                           South-Eastern Division, Southern Region
                           Central Division, Southern Region
                           South-Western Division, Southern Region
                           Liverpool St Division, Eastern Region
                 + + + 4--n-Kings Cross Division, Eastern Region
                 -o_0_0 London Division, Western Region




       Source:    MMC study




                                                        274
                                                     FIGURE 2
           Transport Deaths 1968-79, Comparison by Mode


         50
                                              A
                                              / \
                                              / \
                                             /    \
                                            /      \
         1*0                            /              \
                                       /                   \              ^
Deaths por                            /                                    \
100 million                          /                                      \
passenger                           /                                        \
kilometres
          50
                    \^/

         20.

               7
           >

        1.0

                           S~                               ^
                                                           ~ x
                          /s                                   X^N
                                                                  S
                      S                                              N.




        0.5
Deaths per
100 million
passenger
kilometres




                                X
                    /'              v          .                                 _

                               r—                     ^7
                                                     -^^
                   1968   1969      1970      1971   197?             197J       1971*   1975   1976   1977   1978



                     Rail passon^pr (train accidents only) deaths
                     Two-wheeled motor vehicle pa.ssenger deaths
                     car and taxi passenger deaths
                     Public service vohirles user deaths



   Source: Department of Transport




                                                                 275
                                         FIGURE 3
Trains Arriving at Right Time Full Week, Full 24 Hour Period,
                           1974-79



         100




          90




          80



                                                                                  •~^~...
          7C
 Percentage
 of trains


          60




                          197<»       1975         1976           1977     1978      1979


               NOTE;   1971* Liverpool St figures do not include January



                        South-Eastern Division, Southern Region
                        Central Division, Southern Region
                        South-Western Division, Southern Region
                        Liverpool St Division, Eastern Region
               +f+++• T Kings Cross Division,. Eastern Region




 Source: MMC study




                                             276
                                                 FIGURE 4
Trains up to 5 Minutes Late, Full Week and 24 Hour Period,
                         1974-79



           100




            90-




            80




           70
 Percentage
 of trains



            60-




            50-




                              1971*           197"3          1976            1977     1978   1979

                  NOTE:    197** Liverpool St figure does not i n c l u d e January



                             British R a i l
                             South-Eastern D i v i s i o n , Sojlhprn Region
                             C r n ' r a l D i v i s i o n , Southern Bfifrion
                             South-Western D i v i s i o n , Southern Repion
                             Liverpool St D i v i s i o n , i^ar.tern Region
                  +--H-4--I- Kings Cross D i v i s i o n , Kastcrn Kegion




 Source:   MMC study




                                                      277
   5. Figures 5 and 6 show the trends over the years 1974 to 1979 for the
performance of the Southern Region Divisions, during the peak period,
in terms of percentage of trains on time and the percentage of trams arriving
within five minutes of the scheduled time. Paragraph 4.67 of the report
refers.



                                             FIGURE 5
      Trains Arriving Right Time, Peak Time only, 1974-79



             100



              80




 Percentage
 of trains




                           1971*          1975                         1977   1978   1979




                        South-F.astern D i v i s i o n , Southern Region
                        Central D i v i n i o n , Southern Region
                        3out.h-Wo.stnm D J v i n i o n , Southern Repion
                A       '..ivprpool flt Division, Eastern Region
                n       Kings Crone Divi.-.ion, Eastern Region




  Source:   MMC study




                                                  278
                                       FIGURE 6
   Trains up to 5 Minutes Late, 1974-79, Peak Time only




        100




         80




         60
Percentage
of trains


         kO-




                        197*4                   1976        1977   1978   1979




                      South-Eastern Division, Southern Region
                      Central Division, Southern Region
                      South-Western Division, Southern Region
              A       Liverpool St Division, Eastern Region
              D       Kings Cross Division, Eatern Region




  Source: MMC study




                                          279
Cancellations
   6. Figure 7 shows the trend of percentage of scheduled trains cancelled
for the years 1974 to 1979 for:
     South Eastern Division
     Central Division
     South Western Division
     Liverpool Street Division
     Kings Cross Division
     WR London Division
Paragraph 4.83 of the report refers.


                                         FIGURE 7
    Percentage Cancellations from Booked Service 1974-79
           15




           10


  Percentage
  of trains
  cancelled




            5•




                                       1975         1976            1977   1978   1979

                          South-Eastern Division, Southern Region
                     '•-. Central Division, Southern Region
                          South-Western Division, Southern Region
                          Liverpool St Division, Eastern Region
                •n-n-n- Kings Cross Division, Eastern Region
                a         London Division. Western Region

  Source: MMC study

                                              280
  7. Figure 8 shows trends in causes of cancellations of scheduled services
for the Southern Region as a whole over the years 1974 to 1979. The causes
are categorised under the following headings:
     No drivers
     No guards
     Stock failures and non-availability
     Track failures
     Signals and telecommunications failures
     Others
Paragraph 4.85 of the report refers.


                                                          FIGURE 8
             Southern Region Cancellations by Cause 1974-79




              1*0




 Percentage
 of trains



               ?0




              10-




                                  197<«              1975               1976                1977                  1978   1979


                                 No driver
                                 No guard
                                 CM & TO (Rolling Stock)
                                 CCE (Track)
                                 OS & TE (Signals)


                    1979   points e x c l u d i n g Jnrmary f i f c u r c R - I n d u s t r i a l d i n p u t o


   Source:    MMC study

                                                                281
                                 APPENDIX 8
                       (referred to in paragraph 4.95)

                    Passenger Information Systems
Timetables
   1. For the information of passengers, the two most important require-
ments for timetables are that they should be up to date and available when
required. BRB provide poster-type display versions and smaller printed
timetables which should also be readily available to passengers on request.
We welcome the provision of simple, summary timetables for the main
commuter services, which in some areas are being combined with informa-
tion on different types of tickets and rail cards, as a marketing exercise.
Local timetables are being provided free of charge.

   2. In the longer term, the establishment of a computer data base will
enable timetables to be printed by computer aided type setting more quickly
than in the past and will enable timetables to be kept up to date more
effectively. This computerisation will also permit timetable information to
be given on visual display units.

Enquiry services
  3. BRB use both the traditional 'face to face' enquiry service, for exam-
ple at Lower Regent Street, and also a telephone service using pre-recorded
information. It is intended to have visual display units at Travel Centres
which would show the information from the data base as required. The
use of 'talking timetables' is also being extended and there is a plan to
introduce a response facility for further advice or information.

Information via the media
  4. Southern and Eastern Regions provide information to the BBC, ITA
and local radio stations of train cancellations, both morning and evening.
There is also an arrangement that certain London business houses receive
this information at the same time. Ideally this information should be pro-
vided sufficiently far in advance so that travellers can make adjustments
before beginning their journey to the station.

   5. BRB provide information to TRESTEL'. At the present it is mainly
business houses and travel agents who are equipped to receive TRESTEL'.
The BRB pages are all free of charge, however, they are mainly concerned
with Inter-City rail services, motor rail, British Transport hotels etc. There
is little of direct relevance to commuter services in L & SE.

Information at London termini
  6. The Transport Users' Consultative Committee for London in their
study 'Your Station in Life' looked at the large London termini. They con-
sidered Euston to be their 'ideal station' and concluded that the visual
notices, platform signs and the public address system were all very good
                                   282
of their kind. On the other hand, Kings Cross, which has been refurbished
recently on a temporary basis, was considered to suffer excessively from
locomotive noise, rendering the public address system inaudible at times.
Audibility of the public address system is also a problem at the recon-
structed London Bridge station. Submissions by Commuter Associations
and members of the public have criticised Liverpool Street because of its
lack of an automatic flap type indicator and the audibility of the public
address system. We understand that work is beginning on the installation
of a flap indicator, but installation of a completely new information system
will depend on the proposed redevelopment at Liverpool Street.

  7. Users of the Victoria to Uckfield/East Grinstead service have criti-
cised the information system at Victoria. They said that the PA system
was barely audible and that incorrect announcements were given about train
formations and calling patterns. BRB agree that there is a problem of inter-
nal communications currently at Victoria station. There is little scope for
improvement until the Victoria resignalling is finished. Waterloo East has
also been criticised by a Commuter Association for being seriously deficient
in the provision of information.

Information at local stations
  8. In South Eastern Division there are 185 passenger stations, of which
80 are equipped with a public address system, with a further 28 planned.
Recorded announcements are available at 48 stations and a further 21 are
planned. Platform or barrier mechanical indicators for the next train are
available at 28 stations in South Eastern Division, with a further 30 stations
planned to be equipped. There is a 'long line' system operating in the
Dartford area.
  9. In Kings Cross Division, all stations have public address systems;
many of them are connected on the 'long line' system to the regional centre.
Commuter Associations have indicated their satisfaction with the mechani-
cal platform indicators in Kings Cross Division.
  10. In Liverpool Street Division public address systems are available at
22 stations and it is planned that a further 48 stations will be fitted with
public address equipment.
   11. LMR London Division has full teleprinter facilities, but the informa-
tion has to be relayed by local staff. Some stations are on the 'long line'
public address system from a central signal box, eg Watford, but the mess-
ages are not normally directly transmitted to the public and local staff have
to take the initiative to pass on announcements to passengers.

Liaison between Controller and information system
  12. The effectiveness of communication at the London termini appears
to depend largely upon whether the terminus has been modernised, particu-
larly the arrival/departure display and the signalling system. Euston and
London Bridge are probably the best. When the information co-ordinator
                                     283
is located in a modern power box (as happens at London Bridge) he can
follow train movements as they are happening and inform passengers by
displays or announcements, so that there is a minimum delay. At London
Bridge the departure displays are linked directly to the computer-based
signalling system.

Communication with and on trains
   13. Very few commuter trains in L & SE are equipped with public
address systems at present and none have radios fitted, so that the only
way that information can be passed to and from a train is by the driver
stopping at a signal and using the telephone to a signal box. We were in-
formed that the signal box at Liverpool Street station had no information
on trains as close as three miles from the station. The installation of radios
in trains to permit communication with signal boxes would facilitate corrective
action when services are disrupted, because corrective action could start much
sooner.

   14. The high integrity radio system for 64 trains on the Great Northern
Electric Suburban scheme will cost £1-75 million. Although principally
designed for driver only operations the system can also meet passenger
information needs. However, a low integrity radio system would be suffi-
cient for the latter purpose. Such a system would cost about £2,500 for
each train excluding the public address system and fixed line-side equip-
ment.

  15. We understand from BRB that it is now the policy of the Board
to install public address equipment in new trains and in L & SE when
existing rolling stock is being refurbished and life-extended.




                                     284
                                 APPENDIX 9
                       (referred to in paragraph 5.31)

                  Main Basic Pay Rates in1 British Rail
                              from 5.5.80

Footplate
Traction trainee 18 years and above ...        ...    ...    ...   £58-75
Drivers relief assistant ...     ...    ...    ...    ...    ...   £64 • 80
  After ten years' service in the grade or 15 years' service
  in the line of promotion       ...    ...    ...    ...    ...   £76 • 20
  After 18 years' service in the grade or 21 years' service
  in the line of promotion       ...    ...    ...    ...    ...   £79 • 50
Relief driver                                                      £66-00
  After ten years' service in the grade or 15 years' service
  in the line of promotion or, regardless of length of service,
  after 100 driving turns have been worked                         £77-30
  After 18 years' service in the grade or 21 years' service
  in the line of promotion       ...    ...    ...    ...    ...   £80 • 60
Driver shunt                                                       £90-85
        train                                                      £93-85

Guard                                                              £73-40

Station & yard
Railman                                                            £58-75
Leading railman ...       ...    ...     ...   ...    ...    ...   £64 • 80
Senior railman ...        ...    ...     ...   ...    ...    ...   £69 • 00
Chargeman       ...       ...    ...     ...   ...    ...    ...   £72-85
except as noted




Signalmen
Signalman Class A                                                   £69-00
                   B                                                £74-00
                   c                                                £80-10
                   D                                                £89-30
                   E                                                £99-85
                                                                   £106-60


Relief signalman Class 1                                           £71-15
                       2                                           £76-55
                       3                                           £89-30
Relief signalman when relieving in Class D Box to receive          £91-40
                                       285
Permanent way
Trackman
  Probationary                                                  £65-40
  Basic                                                         £65-40
  Cat 1                                                         £69-60
Leading trackman
  Basic                                                         £72-00
  Cat 1                                                         £76-20
  Cat 2                                                         £78-60
Track chargeman
  Basic                                                         £81-00
  Cat 1                                                         £85-20
  Cat 2                                                         £87-60
Track machineman
  Cat 1                                                         £78-60
  Cat2                                                          £82-80
  Cat 3                                                         £87-60
Other grades
  Track welder Basic                                            £81-00
  Track welder Cat 1   ...    "                                 £85-20
  Track welder Cat 2                                            £87-60


Signal & Telecommunications
Assistant Technician                                            £64-80
Tradesman Installer                                             £72-85
Technician                                                      £75-25
Leading Installer                                               £78-55
Senior Technician                                               £91-90
Technician Officer                                             £106-60

Overhead Line
Overhead Lineman      ...     ...     ...   ...   ...   ...     £67-50
Leading Overhead Lineman      ...     ...   ...   ...   ...     £75 • 25

Carriage & Wagon staff
Carriage and Wagon Examiner...        ...   ...   ...   ...     £69 • 00
Rolling Stock Technician (Cat 1)                                £71 • 00
Rolling Stock Technician (Cat 2)                                £72-85


Workshops (Bonus is earned in addition; standard performance (maximum)
equals 28 per cent of base rate)
Shopman 1                                                        £65-50
Shopman 2                                                        £69-55
Shopman 3                                                        £73-45
Shopman 4...                                                     £80-00
Pattern Maker                                                    £81-75
                                    286
Workshop Supervisors
Grade A                                                        £4,558
Grade B                                                        £4,964
Grade C                                                        £5,417
Grade D                                                        £5,923
Grade E                                                        £6,469

Railway Supervisors
Grade A                                                        £4,558
Grade B                                                        £4,964
Grade C                                                        £5,417
Grade D                                                        £5,923
Grade E                                                        £6,469

Traffic Controllers
Assistant Controller   ...   ...     ...   ...   ...   ...     £3,666
Controller Grade A                                             £4,558
                  B                                            £4,964
                  C                                            £5,417
                  D                                            £5,923
                  E                                            £6,469

Clerical
Grade 1 (age 18+)                                              £3,499
Grade 2                                                ...     £4,351
Grade 3                                                        £4,798
Grade 4                                                        £5,578
Grade 5                                                        £6,360

Management Staff (from 1 January 1980)
MSI                                                    £6,570—£7,440
MS2                                                    £7,215—£8,435
MS3                                                    £7,950—£9,525
MS4                                                    £8,775—£10,740
MS5                                                    £9,700—£11,620




                                   287
                                APPENDIX 10
                      (referred to in paragraph 7.53)
                       Productivity Organisation
The 1980 proposals
   1. In order to develop productivity proposals for the 1980 pay negotia-
tions five separate function based working parties were created in late 1979.
In all some 200-300 ideas were generated which were then evaluated by
a co-ordinating group. Over 100 ideas were submitted to the main BR
management group and from these 52 were selected.
   2. The following criteria were used in the final selection:
     —significance of benefits
     —benefits in a three year timescale (1980-82)
     —availability of investment funds, if required
     —management agreement on practicality of idea
     —ability of management to develop plans in the appropriate timescale
       for discussion with unions
     —availability of necessary technology.
The likelihood of union acceptance was not a criterion for selection and
those proposals which the unions had so far indicated to be not negotiable,
for example one man operation on suburban passenger trains, were
excluded for other reasons, notably the timescale and investment required.
Nearly half the 52 proposals finally included had been previously considered
either at local or national level. In some cases these proposals were
re-included merely to reinforce an existing agreement where no difficulties
had so far been experienced, while others were included on a national basis
where local attempts had failed.
   3. In the final selection process a further 52 schemes were rejected for
the 1980 proposals because they did not meet the criteria. BRB have stated
that many of these ideas will ultimately be re-presented together with new
ideas coming forward. It is clearly the intention to take the 1980 Agreement
as a prototype for subsequent years in that specific productivity proposals
will be put forward. Management is intending to pursue with vigour those
items not included in 1980 and is not accepting that certain items are not
negotiable.
The future
  4. While the working parties and co-ordinating group established to
generate ideas for the 1980 negotiations were created specifically for that
purpose and will not remain as a permanent feature, over the last two years
BRB have been creating a formal organisation for developing and monitor-
ing productivity improvements. At BR HQ level two new groups have been
set up to review developments in the rail business over the medium to
longer term and the resources required to handle that business. The Rail
Planning Group broadly examines the situation one to five years ahead
while the Strategy Unit examines the situation five to ten years ahead.
                                    288
A Consultancy Services Unit has also been established with the function
of developing ways and means of achieving the accepted plans developed
by the forward looking groups. In addition the Consultancy Services Unit,
together with the strengthened regional management services units, is
responsible for developing shorter term productivity improvements and
assisting in their implementation.
   5. Productivity Steering Groups have also been established at BRB and
in each of the five regions to further the development and implementation
of productivity improvements at all levels. These groups comprise a mixture
of operating management, finance, personnel and consultancy/management
services staff. At BRB level the Group is chaired alternately by the main
Board member for Operations and Productivity and the Director of Consul-
tancy Services. The Regional groups are usually chaired by the General
Manager with a senior representative of Consultancy Services in attend-
ance.
   6. Although this organisation has been in operation for only two years,
it is already beginning to have a significant impact. The Strategy Unit has
been responsible for a number of important studies to which we refer in
this report. The Consultancy Services Unit is similarly engaged on some
very important projects and the effect of the Productivity Steering Groups
has been evident at all levels of management.




                                   289
                                   APPENDIX 11
                         (referred to in paragraph 8.20)
             Great Northern Electrics—Class 313 EMU
   1. The basic design of the class resulted from a commercial specification
for a new style of inner suburban stock developed in the late 1960s. Proto-
types, known as PEP stock, underwent extensive trials over a two year
period, mainly on Southern Region, and were found to be generally satisfac-
tory. However, in the first production models (Class 313) a number of major
components were changed; they did not therefore undergo pre-production
service trials.
   2. Since its introduction in 1976 Class 313 has had a poor reliability record
compared with existing classes. In terms of miles travelled between failures,
the next worst class in Eastern Region (Class 306 built in 1949) is 2-6 times
better—19,940 miles compared with 7,600 miles. The most reliable class
in the region, Class 309 of 1962, is 38 times better.
  3. The most significant problems in Class 313 stock arise in the following
areas:
                                                Failures as percentage
                                              of total in Class 313, 1979
                                                         %
           Traction motors                               3•0
           Motor/alternator sets                         5• 5
           Sliding door mechanism                       13-4
           Automatic couplers                           NA
           Air compressors                               5-5
           Tripcock gear                                11-9
           Wheel slip/slide controls                     6-2

                                                      45-5




Traction motors
   4. The entire traction and sub-system, including controls, are obtained
from external suppliers. The motors were developed from an existing
design, although not previously used for EMU traction, to meet the speed,
acceleration and dynamic braking requirements of lightweight units, within
the compact space available because of the low floor height. Each unit
has eight motors compared with four in earlier classes. Although only 3-0
per cent of the failures in 1979 were recorded as directly attributable to
the traction motors it was observed that a large proportion of the 19 per
cent of total failures attributed to the propulsion control system could in
fact be traced to the motors. The main source of the problems has been
traced to the commutator and brush boxes; the latter are believed to
resonate at speeds between 65 mph and 75 mph causing premature wear
of both commutators and brushes. To avoid aggravating the problem the
313 fleet has been running for almost its entire life with the dynamic braking
                                       290
system disconnected, thus increasing the rate of wear on disc brake pads
and also the rate of power consumption for heating which should have
been available from the braking resistors.

Motor/alternator sets
  5. Various low voltage auxiliaries are supplied by a single alternator set
for each three car unit. Although the M/A sets were not specially designed
for the 313-series stock, there appear to be problems with the particular
model used. About 5 per cent of 313 casualties are attributed to M/A sets
and three different design experiments are currently in progress.

Sliding doors
   6. The 313 doors were originally designed for passenger or centrally con-
trolled operation to conserve heat and to provide a high standard of safety.
They are also a prerequisite for one man operation. In practice the passenger
control feature was not deemed to be sufficiently safe and the actuating
levers were removed. The dual mechanism, however, remains and is there-
fore more complicated than necessary, with around three times as many
valves as a unit designed only for central operation. Each valve is extremely
sensitive to dirt or moisture contamination, a situation which, when com-
bined with the air compressor problems described below, gives rise to a
greater than expected failure rate. Later variants of the class do not have
this problem.
  7. The complexity of the actuation system also makes fault diagnosis
more difficult as evidenced by records of driver defect reports on doors.
For example, on one set of doors which gave rise to five defect reports
over a 30 day period, the cause of the problem was not correctly diagnosed
until the fifth report.
  8. Another major cause of door problems was traced to the poor fit of
the door assemblies in the car bodies during manufacture. This appeared
to be the result of lack of design and production experience in stressed
bodies since insufficient allowance was made for structural distortion during
construction and loading. This caused doors to bind in the guide ways.

Couplers
   9. The 313 three-car units are equipped with automatic couplers at each
end for linking to additional units for peak periods, in order to run six-car
trains. This was the first time that full mechanical, electrical and air coupling
and decoupling could be achieved by the driver only and is potentially a
major labour saving device with great importance in the future.
   10. The automatic couplers fitted to the 313 fleet, however, are not those
originally installed on the prototype units. All pre-production testing was
done with the Sharfenberg coupler, a proven German unit and the preferred
design choice. It was not, however, compatible with other types of coupler
currently in service and necessitated the provision of an adaptor for emer-
gency coupling to other stock.
                                      291
   11. An American design, the Tightlock, was therefore selected for its
compatibility with existing BR Buckeye units and the contract for their
supply awarded to external suppliers who in turn sub-contracted the deve-
lopment of a new electrical coupler design. Subsequent experience has high-
lighted a number of problems including:
   (a) Poor weather sealing of the roll cover.
   (b) Lack of security of sealing rings.
   (c) Poor engagement of the locating probe.
The result is that automatic coupling can only be accomplished on the
straight, a rare feature of track in the Hornsey area. Units are therefore
operated in pairs (six-car trains) at all times instead of only at peak periods.
The effects of coupler problems do not therefore appear in casualty data
but increase operating costs, estimated by BRB to amount to £700,000 a
year in additional energy costs.
   12. The Chief Mechanical and Electrical Engineer BRB is working with
the suppliers on design modifications but has still to resolve the problems
satisfactorily.


Air compressors
   13. Each three-car set is equipped with a compressor which provides
pneumatic power for the wheel brakes, door operation, secondary suspen-
sion (air bags), traction motor contactor control, pantograph elevation and
various other functions.
   14. Three types of air compressor problem have arisen which have
resulted in around 20 per cent of all 313 casualties. They are:
  (1) Premature disc valve failure in the compressor itself necessiting
      frequent overhauls and valve replacement.
  (2) Short brush and commutator life on the compressor motor resulting
      from the shaft coming to rest at the same position each time the com-
      pressor stops.
  (3) Various secondary problems in air-operated devices resulting from
      a compressor duty cycle of around 65 per cent.
The first and third problem areas are probably related and underline the
conclusion, with which all parties agree, that the compressor has insufficient
capacity for the 313 stock.
   15. Another model which was not available in 1976 has now been selected
as more suitable but it is conceded that the high cost of replacement pre-
cludes a short-term solution to the problem on 313 stock.


Tripcock gear
   16. The 2-5 mile stretch of third-rail underground operation between
Drayton Park and Moorgate imposes the need for tripcock gear to override
the driver if speeds exceed a certain level. The tripcock linkage on the
                                   292
313 has undergone a series of design changes since 1976 to improve robust-
ness and reliability. All 128 sets (two per unit) have been replaced twice
in three years. Even so, in 1979 nearly 12 per cent of casualties were attri-
buted to the automatic warning system and the tripcock gear.
   17. The tripcock lever was originally located on a radial arm on the
BX 1 bogie. This location was used because an unsprung part of the bogie
is necessary to keep the lever at constant height relative to the rail. Unfor-
tunately the radial arm was unable to take the weight of the tripcock valve,
which was, therefore, located remotely on the main bogie frame. The two
components were linked by means of a long mechanical linkage. This link-
age is now being eliminated by providing a shoe beam to which both the
operating lever and the valve are secured. A number of units have already
been modified in this way and are performing satisfactorily.

Wheel slip/slide control
   18. The slip/slide control on the 313 stock is solid state electronic and
is very much more advanced than on earlier EMU designs. While the full
value of the control cannot be realised without the use of dynamic braking
(see paragraph 4), approximately 5 per cent of recorded casualties appear
to be caused by the slip/slide control system.
    19. While this failure rate may not be unreasonable, it was apparent from
our observations and interviews that the level of maintenance skill at the
Hornsey depot was inadequate for fault diagnosis and repair. The quality
control engineering group at Hornsey has had more success than the regular
fitting personnel, but their resources are insufficient to permit them to
assume maintenance responsibility for this sub-system on a regular basis.




                                    293
                                 APPENDIX 12
                       (referred to in paragraph 9.54)
      The Technical Aspects of Scheduling Train Resources
   1. This appendix describes the procedures used by the regional train plan-
ners to convert the commercial specification for service into a practical
and workable timetable. This is essentially a process of allocating the scarce
resources available, in an efficient manner, among the competing require-
ments of the different services. The methods, which have evolved over
the 100 years' experience of scheduling trains, are still mainly manual. How-
ever, BRB are developing an integrated package of computer assisted proce-
dures which will eventually replace the current system.


   2. The input to the scheduling process is the commercial specification
for the required service pattern on each route. The procedures for making
the associated commercial judgments are described in detail in paragraphs
9.51 to 9.53 of the report. The scheduler receives the specification in the
following forms for each service:
     (i) the terminal destinations and intermediate station stops, and the pre-
         ferred journey time;
    (ii) the service pattern in terms of frequency;
 I (iii) the class and type of stock;
   (iv) the demand expected between different destinations on the route
         at different times of the day.
The task of the scheduler is to match these requirements with the available
resources of track, stock and crews.


  3. The technical process of scheduling has six stages, usually taken
sequentially, and each must be checked for feasibility both with respect
to itself and with respect to the other stages taken together. If any of the
process stages are found to be infeasible as the result of a constraint, then
the stages must be backtracked to try an alternative solution. This iterative
process, which may also ultimately include a respecification, continues until
a complete schedule is produced which is compatible with the commercial
specification and within the scope of the available resources. The six stages:
     —train timing,
     —train pathway,
     —platforming,
     —traction and rolling stock diagramming,
     —maintenance scheduling,
     —crew diagramming,
are considered in detail below.
                                     294
Train timing
   4. The first stage is to check to see if the proposed journey time between
terminal points is feasible and if so what would be the arrival times at
intermediate destinations. The calculations of speed and point to point tim-
ings are made by computer. The basis of the calculations is a data bank
kept up to date by the Chief Mechanical and Electrical Engineer's depart-
ment which tabulates the power and speed-load characteristics of all classes
of traction. The data bank also contains the track characteristics, gradients,
maximum speed and point to point distances of all sections of the track.
If the journey times are not operationally possible then a modification to
the specification must be made.



Train pathway
   5. Each train using common track must be provided with a clear pathway
along the route at the proposed speed. The condition for this is that when
allowance for intermediate stops is considered, following trains do not
approach at less than the minimum signal headway, dictated by their own
track speed, nor should the train being path way ed approach a preceding
train at less than the minimum headway whilst maintaining designed speed
along the route. The procedure must take into consideration the signal struc-
ture along the route, the various speeds of the different traction systems,
the stopping time at stations, and the conflicting movements of other trains
on other tracks at junctions. The stopping time at intermediate suburban
stations during the peak period is reduced to about 20 seconds to increase
the number of pathways available; the time allowance will increase if the
train is undertaking parcels or mail loading. The problems of obtaining feas-
ible pathways is increasing with the widening range of traction speeds, mul-
tiple units at about 80 mph, loco-hauled at 90-100 mph, and HST and APT
at over 125 mph. The problems of coping with mixed speed trains occupying
the same track has led to the 'flighting' principle. A flight consists of a
sequence of trains of the same speed having the same stopping pattern
travelling at short intervals along the same section of track. Flights of differ-
ent types with different stopping patterns are pathed alternately.

   6. The 'flighting' principle is used at Euston to ease the problems of mixed
train speeds; it is being suggested for Great Northern Electrics out of Kings
Cross to ease the problem of mixing stopping trains and non-stopping trains
between Finsbury Park and Stevenage; it has also been suggested in the
strategy study of SR for the same reasons.

   7. The inability to find feasible pathways during the high density peak
traffic times is often a cause for the specification being modified.

  8. The rough feasibility of pathways is checked in the early stages by
comparing tabulations of intermediate timings for the sequence of trains
using each track. Eventually, however, the absolute integrity of the path-
way must be checked for all trains on every part of the route. This is done
by a manual procedure which displays, in the form of a location-time graph
                                      295
for each train in the timetable, the relative position of every train on a
single piece of paper. The condition for safety is that no two train graphs
relating to the same track should cross.
   9. The graphing procedure is tedious and any significant change in timing
to one train may require adjustments to the graph of all preceding and
following trains. It is very much easier to make small timing changes to
an existing graph than to produce a new one from scratch for a major
change to the structure and pattern of the commercial specification.

Platforming
   10. Terminal and intermediate station platforms are allocated to each
service in the schedule. The train planners must demonstrate that there
is sufficient platform capacity for each service to allow passengers to alight,
for the trains to be serviced and new passengers to board.
   11. In general it is only necessary to demonstrate that there is sufficient
platform capacity. However, at terminals where platform capacity is a
dominant constraint, specific platforms are allocated to particular services
during the planning process. The degree of cross-track working at the
approach junctions is often a critical feature; at Waterloo and other major
London terminals a fanning procedure is used in which platforms are filled
and vacated in a sequential sweep across the station to provide maximum
potential capacity.


Traction and stock diagramming
   12. For each scheduled service, a locomotive and rolling stock, or
a multiple unit of the type required by the commercial specification has
to be assigned. The constraints on the allocation are that:
    (i) each service must have a unit assigned of the correct type;
   (ii) each unit must start and terminate at a depot;
  (iii) units which form an incoming service to a terminal must be assigned
        to an outgoing service from the same terminal;
  (iv) there must not be any more units assigned to services at any one
        time than are actually available.
   13. The process of checking these constraints is called stock balancing;
it is the outcome of the stock balance which provides the costing of stock
usage to be assessed by the service group managers in testing the commer-
cial viability of the specifications. The process of following the progress
of each unit from a depot through the period of passenger service back
to the depot is called stock diagramming and forms part of the production
of the stock working timetable needed for internal staff information.
   14. Traction and stock diagramming and platforming are again manual
procedures worked out by means of time bar charts representing the time
history of each unit or the time occupancy of each platform.
                                     296
Maintenance scheduling
   15. The maintenance schedule laid down by mechanical and electrical
engineers for each type of traction unit and coaching stock must be reflected
in the stock working diagrams, so that each unit is programmed into a
maintenance depot at the appropriate time. The stock working timetable
also sets out all empty workings back to depots, sidings and maintenance
and cleaning sheds.
   16. Major track maintenance is carried out as much as possible during
periods of slack demand, normally Sundays and also overnight on week-
days. However, with the introduction of higher speed trains there is a need
for frequent possession of the track by the engineers for maintenance of
track and overhead systems. To prevent this from disrupting the public
time schedule, LMR have developed a planning technique called the
'Weave'. Where there are slow and fast tracks running side by side, a
constant additional time of about six minutes is built into the timetable
journey time between 10.00 and 16.00 hours. The track is arranged with
fast to slow, and slow to fast crossovers at about seven mile intervals.
Each day maintenance of track can be carried out on one of the sections
between crossovers. Trains scheduled on that track weave on to the other
track and back again. Within limits it does not matter which section of
track is being maintained because the constant time addition just compen-
sates for the deviations overall and public schedules for long distance trains
are maintained. The exact location of the work on a particular day does,
however, affect some intermediate station times for stopping trains.

Crew diagramming
   17. Crew diagramming is the last stage in the scheduling of resources.
It is also the most highly constrained and technically most difficult. Unlike
rolling stock which can be worked continuously, crews are subject to work-
ing time constraints. The objective is to assign a driver and guard to each
unit during the period between leaving a depot and returning, within the
available total capacity of staff and complying with the constraints imposed
by the conditions of work, the manning agreements, and the need for trac-
tion and route specific knowledge. Drivers are permitted to operate only
those routes for which they have signed route cards indicating that they
have had recent route experience, and are completely familiar with the
individual signals and other track features. .
  18. The main provisions of the Manning Agreements (1965) which repre-
sent constraints on crew diagramming are:
  (a) Drivers
       (i) Trains may be single-manned providing all the provisions of the
           1965 Manning Agreements are met.
      (ii) Driver, single-manned, cannot be diagrammed to work in excess
           of eight hours (where a required duty exceeds eight hours single-
           manned, it must be approved by the regional Manning Committee
           which includes national officers of the unions. The unions will
           accept a little overtime on duties if mileage bonus is associated
           with them).
                                     297
     (iii) Drivers must have a 'physical needs' break (PNB) of ,30 minutes
           clear between the third and fifth hours of the duty.
     (iv) Drivers are allowed 10 minutes to sign on and read notices and
           10 minutes to sign off and make any necessary reports at the finish
           of a turn.
      (v) 'Walking time' is allowed to and from the traction they are to
           work or have worked at the start and end of a turn, prior to and
           after a PNB and between trains. Walking time is based on a speed
           of 3 mph, over the safest route and agreed locally.
     (vi) There are limitations on continuous driving without a scheduled
           stop, of 3 hours in respect of freight trains and 2\ hours in respect
           of passenger trains. The aggregate time permitted at the controls
           varies according to the type of train involved, the maximum time
           for a freight train being 7 hours and that for a passenger train
           6 hours.
    (vii) Drivers have an allowance of 10-30 minutes for train preparation
           (eg pumping up and testing brakes, checking equipment, etc) and
           an allowance of 5-20 minutes for stabling a train after service.
  (b) Guards
       (i) PNB either 30 minutes between the third and fifth hour or one
           break of 10 minutes and one of 20 minutes (not necessarily
           between the third and fifth hour). However, it has been agreed
           at the SR Sectional Council that wherever possible there will be
           a 30 minutes break between the third and fifth hour.
      (ii) Can be rostered up to 8 hours 59 minutes but the SR Sectional
           Council has requested that turns are kept to 8 hours wherever
           possible (in practice, due to the shortage of staff, many guards
           work overtime).
     (iii) Signing on and off allowances of 15 minutes at each end of turn.
     (iv) Allowance for walking, similar to that of drivers and determined
           locally.
      (v) Allowance for checking first aid gear, detonators, etc; switching
           on carriage heaters; where applicable assist driver with brake test
           etc.
     (vi) On 'pay' trains where guards sell tickets, time allowances are given
           for paying in cash etc.



   19. The consequence of the discontinuous nature of work during a shift
and the different conditions for drivers and guards is that there is not a
one-to-one relationship during a shift between a" particular stock unit and
the crew nor between the driver and guard.

  20. Crew allocation is achieved by a manual procedure based on follow-
ing the progress of each stock unit, ie traction unit and rolling stock, from
                                    298
the time it leaves the depot in the morning until the time it is stabled at
night. This leads to a depot by depot procedure which comprises the follow-
ing steps:
A. Working forward from morning starts
   (i) Allocate a guard and driver, from the available pool, to each unit
       at the time it leaves the sidings,
  (ii) Run each unit with this crew until either:
       (a) the train unit is taken off service for stabling, maintenance, etc,
           or
       (b) the crew require a physical break as set out in the manning agree-
           ments,
       whichever is the sooner.
B. Working backwards from evening finishes
 (iii) Allocate a guard and a driver, from the available pool, to each unit
       at the time it finishes at the depot.
 (iv) Work backwards with this unit and this crew until either:
       (a) the train leaves the sidings or maintenance, or
       (b) the crew have just finished a physical break,
       whichever is the later.

C. Reallocation of crew after physical break or at end of train working
  (v) At the end of step (ii), after allowing the correct interval for the
      physical break, the driver or guard or both are available for realloca-
      tion to the next available unit which is consistent with the following
      constraints:
      (a) Less than eight hours total duty for the driver.
      (b) Compatible with meal breaks if necessary.
 (vi) Crews are allocated on this basis until the constraints imply that the
      next allocation should be to a unit which will end the turn back at
      the depot, which then provides continuity with the allocations made
      in 'B' above.


  21. To ensure continuity it is sometimes necessary to schedule a bridging
turn between the early and late shifts. After the peak working the crews
can be used to run units to maintenance in the counter flow. Following
such a trip, the crew may stand spare to meet any contingency arising,
or travel passenger to a new start location.

  22. It is always difficult to achieve a feasible allocation and sometimes
impossible. In that case the following options are available:
    (i) Reallocate the work to another duty.
   (ii) Reallocate the work to another depot (this is difficult to negotiate
        with staff unless a compensating transfer can be made).
  (iii) Seek an adjustment to the stock schedule.
  (iv) Seek an adjustment to the commercial specification.
                                    299
The productivity package and crew diagramming
  23. In the present productivity proposals three items if implemented
would have a significant effect on crew diagramming:
    (i) More flexible PNB conditions,
   (ii) More flexibility of allocating work between depots.
  (iii) Variable length shifts. This would introduce a constraint of consider-
        able complexity. It would be necessary to balance the mix of diagram
        duty lengths so that when compiled into a roster for each man at
        each depot, the total time aggregated over a period of one month
        would be equal on average to a standard month. It is not at all certain
        whether the complexity of this constraint could be handled by manual
        methods.



Contingency planning
   24. Train planners normally try to arrange for some slack in the final
schedule to make it as robust as possible against contingencies. The most
common ways of doing this are:
     (i) To allow extra time at the timing stage on particular sections of the
         track as recovery time from temporary speed restrictions arising as
         a result of track maintenance work.
    (ii) To provide one or two spare unassigned pathways, so that trains
         which are delayed can have a clear run along the track, and not
         impede trains running to schedule.
   (iii) To leave one platform empty at the terminal station so that a train
         which is subject to a late start does not prevent the arrival of other
         incoming services.
In the peak period on local services the need for capacity is so great that
it is often not possible to provide such slack and the robustness of the
timetable is jeopardised.


The product systems project
  25. BRB are developing as part of their computer operations strategy
a comprehensive system of computerised train planning and scheduling.
The system when fully implemented towards the end of the 1980s should
have the following benefits:
    (i) a large range of options for resource allocation for a particular com-
        mercial specification could be produced, to allow selection of those
        giving the best value;
   (ii) it would be possible to assess the timetable for its operational
        stability, in terms of the reaction to small changes of resources
        availability;
  (iii) reaction time to changed demand could be shortened;
  (iv) the production costs of the timetable would be reduced.
                                     300
   26. The project has been in development for over seven years. The long
development time has been affected by an early decision concerning the
complexity level which should be reserved for the computer and what
should be reserved for the human operator, and subsequently by lack of
financial resources. A study has been undertaken by the Internal Consul-
tancy Service to improve the monitoring and control of the project time-
table.
   27. The system is built upon three basic principles. Firstly, a centralised
data base will contain all the physical data appropriate to stock, track,
signals and manning agreements for the whole of BR. It will also contain
the final timetable and stock working for all regions and services. It is
intended to use the spare capacity of the standby TOPS computer as the
central processor.
   28. Secondly, the system will use decentralised local processing in the
regional planning offices. Each will have its own local processor which
will access the central data bank for data. The subsequent scheduling will
then be done through terminals connected to the local mini-computer. The
final timetable and stock schedules etc will then be transferred back to
the central data base.
  29. Thirdly, the system will be interactive, that is to say that the computer
will make all the calculations, but will not make all the decisions. The system
will be given all necessary basic data together with the required commercial
specification; the scheduling will then be executed stage by stage until it
reaches a position where an important decision has to be made. The system
will pause and present the train planner with a small set of best options
and wait for a decision before proceeding.

   30. The whole system is being developed in modular form so that each
completed module can be implemented, when ready, as an independent
'stand-alone' form. The modules of interest to this inquiry are:
     Train specification module: A system to identify retimings in the com-
     mercial specification which would lead to savings in locomotives or
     stock units.
     Timing and pathing: The calculations of point to point timings is already
     computerised and used on a production basis. Work on the pathing
     module has been given a low priority and is delayed because of insuffi-
     cient resources. The pathing technique would significantly improve
     short term planning procedures.
     Locomotive (and stock) scheduling: The first stage of this module is
     already in productive use in some regions. Its use has increased locomo-
     tive utilisation by about 5 per cent or £7£ million annually.
     Crew scheduling module: This module is designed around three sub-
     systems:
        (a) Main line balancing of crew schedules.
        (b) Local suburban service crewing.
        (c) Crewing of minor workings such as shunting and empty workings.
                                      301
The main line balancing module is currently being used experimentally
in Western Region. It has already been used to resolve a problem of
allocation of work on the Reading—Gatwick service between Western
and Southern Region depots. The local services module is still being
developed, but it is expected that savings of 1 per cent to 2 per cent
in crew resources could be expected by better scheduling. These
modules will be a valuable means of assessing the value of changes
to the manning agreements and working practices.
Timetable information module: The central data base will contain
details of all regional timetables, stock and locomotive workings etc.
This module will collate the information into a national timetable and
produce internal and public timetables for specific groups of services
and areas, aided by computerised typesetting ready for printing. Com-
puter aided typesetting is already implemented as part of the production
process. It will also be possible to produce print-outs of specific stock
workings and crew diagrams. It is envisaged that the data base and
its national timetable will be available for interrogation by the public
information systems.




                                302
                                           APPENDIX 13
                                 (referred to in paragraph 10.2)
                                               Fare Structure
Peak fares
   1. The diagram at paragraph 10.4 of the Report illustrates the broad prin-
ciples upon which the ordinary and season ticket fares to London are based.
Fares based upon the L & SE tariff are applied only within the L & SE
charging area (see Figure 1). There is a non-London scale on Southern
Region for journeys of less than 15 miles.
   2. The single fare per mile falls with distance, presently from 19p for
the first mile to 7p per mile for a 30 mile journey. The fare per mile stabilises
for longer journeys where demand'is not very responsive to price. The
ordinary return is twice the single fare up to 50 miles, at which point a

                                                  FIGURE 1
                    Diagram of London and South East Area
                            for Charging Purposes
                                                   ' Bedford




        Princes Risboroi




                                                                   Hastings

 Weymouth
                           1
                               Isle of Wight

  Source: BRB
                                                    303
discount is introduced. The discount rises to 1\ per cent on two singles
at 65 miles and then stabilises. This pricing of return fares follows from
research which found that Inter-City travellers show greater resistance to
price increases on the return fare than on the single.
   3. The weekly season ticket offers a discount on the return fare. About
five years ago SR realised that many of their commuters were using full-fare
tickets. This was inefficient from the point of view of ticket-issuing and
manning of ticket barriers, and also tended to lead to greater fare evasion.
The Region studied 42 passenger flows and discovered that the minimum
discount which would induce commuters to use season tickets was about
15 per cent for journeys of up to 15 miles. This value was adopted for
journeys of up to 15 miles; thereafter the discount increases to about 60
per cent at 65 miles.
  4. Other season tickets are based on the weekly thus:
    Monthly = 4 x weekly less 4 per cent
    Quarterly = 3 x monthly less 4 per cent
    Annual = 4 x quarterly less 10 per cent

Selective pricing
   5. The L & SE tariff consists of a series of fares corresponding with
a series of codes. Each station is given the tariff and told its own set of
codes so that the prices which should be charged can be read from the
tariff. A service can be priced up by altering its code and as there are
more codes than distance divisions, selective pricing can be pursued without
disturbing the basic relationship between fare and distance.
   6. Selective pricing may be applied either to a complete route or to
several specific flows. One example of selective pricing all along a route
is the Great Northern Electrics. To recoup the investment costs of providing
a much improved quality of service, price increases of about 2 per cent
higher than the general increases, which recently have been at about the
rate of inflation, have been applied on this line since electrification and
this policy will continue. However, although the Inner Suburban service
has a very poor operating ratio there is no attempt to apply selective or
'real' pricing to the extent required for the service to cover its direct costs,
because of the competition provided by LT.
  7. SR provides another example of selective pricing to take account of
competition. In the January 1980 fare increases, the fares 3-7 miles from
London were priced up because the LT fare scales were above BRB's.
However, BRB fares do not follow LT's out to the geographical limit of
LT because the Board would then price themselves out of the market on
the south-coast where there are some very competitively priced bus
services.
  8. Selective pricing on particular flows on SR dates from the mid 1970's.
Flows where the quality of service is high or demand is strong (or both)
                                      304
are priced above their actual mileage and vice versa. Table 1 shows, for
five stations on the case study routes, the amount of selective pricing by
ticket type on the journey between London and that station. London to
Chatham for example is priced up by 3 miles on the season ticket.
TABLE 1. Selective pricing on SR-May 1980
                London to:                  Single   Day return    Season
                Battle                        —         -1
                                                                     —
                Borough Green                +1         +1           +1
                Chatham                      +4         +5           +3
                Dartford                     +1         +1           —
                Dover                        -3         -3          -4
  Source: BRB

A point which emerges from Table 1 is that the amount of selective pricing,
on season tickets and ordinary single fares is not always the same within
each flow, although 80 per cent of ordinary tickets are sold in the peak.
The differences accordingly do not appear to be based on costs but on
the difference perceived by BRB between the buoyancy of the demand
for work travel and other peak travel.

Special fares
   9. In 1968 the National Board for Prices and Incomes' recommended that
mileage-based pricing should be replaced by a more flexible system whereby
all fares would be set above avoidable costs but not higher than the market
would bear. The Board subsequently gave the Regions discretion over their
own pricing and SR, for example, developed a market-based system of
off-peak fares where every flow was examined to see whether the potential
existed for a cheap off-peak fare. However, this resulted in a very confusing
fare structure, and led to the introduction of the National Reduced Fares
Policy in 1973; this gives a more easily understandable and marketable set
of fares.

   10. The National Reduced Fares Policy applies to the entire BRB
network. Its basic philosophy is to offer off-peak travellers a discount which
varies inversely with the time spent at the destination, and it also includes
a concession aimed at the traveller who is willing to choose from a very
limited set of departure times in return for a very low fare. The policy
has been slightly modified since its introduction and now offers the follow-
ing fares:
     (i) Period fare—12 \ per cent reduction over normal return-valid for
         return within one month but not in the week of the outward journey.
    (ii) Weekend return—1 -3xsingle fare,
   (iii) Day return or Away day (varies with Region).
   (iv) Big City Savers—fare determined by the competition from coaches
         for a controlled number of tickets on specified trains on about 20
         routes.

  National Board for Prices and Incomes. Report No. 72 Cmnd 3656
                                            305
   11. The most important new set of special fares to have been introduced
since 1973 are the Railcard fares, which are based on the concept of the
two-part tariff, whereby the traveller pays a fixed sum of money to buy
the card and then obtains reduce rate travel.
   12. There are two types of Senior Citizen Railcard. One costs £4 and
allows the holder to:
     (i) buy Awayday tickets at half price;
    (ii) travel on Inter-City Sleeper services for half the price of the basic
         fare plus the full sleeper supplement;
   (iii) take up to 4 children almost anywhere for 50p each.
   An £8 ticket gives the above concessions and also allows the holder:
   (iv) to buy ordinary single or return tickets at half price;
    (v) 50 per cent discount on Sealink ships to the Channel Islands and
         Ireland;
   (vi) 10 per cent discount on some Golden Rail Holidays in Spring and
         Autumn.
   13. There are two types of Family Railcard. The One-Adult Railcard
costs £8 and allows an adult to take up to 4 children on the same journey
for 50p each. The Two-Adult Railcard costs £16, and when travelling on
this card one adult pays the standard fare and the second adult shown
on the Railcard and up to 4 children pay 50p each. There must always
be one child in the travelling party. There are travel restrictions on ordinary
single and return tickets principally from Kings Cross on Friday evenings
and on summer Saturday morning journeys except on SR.

   14. A Student Railcard costs £8 and entitles the holder to half-price
Awayday, single and ordinary return tickets, Sealink tickets and Sleeper
train tickets subject to a minimum Student Fare of £2 single or Awayday
or £4 Ordinary Return except at weekends, Bank Holidays and during the
summer. There are also travel restrictions designed to avoid heavily loaded
trains on Friday afternoon and evening on Eastern Region.
   15. The Forces Railcard, introduced on 1st July 1980, entitles the holder
to half-price rail travel, again with restrictions designed to avoid crowded
trains.
   16. The Railcards are promoted according to the concept of market
segmentation ie they are each aimed at a specific sector of the market
which has the potential to generate rail travel but not at the standard prices
offered. It is necessary to ensure at the same time that people are not
offered a reduced fare on journeys they would otherwise have made at
full fare; this is the reason for the travel restrictions applying to the Railcard
concessions and it also explains why people find the Railcard conditions
difficult to understand. The Board have told us that they are conscious
of the benefits of simplifying the off-peak fare structure but feel there
is a trade-off between simplification and revenue growth. In spite of the
confusion Railcards have caused, they have been very successful.
                                        306
   17. The Regions also promote their own special offers for the off-peak
traveller. SR for instance promotes Day Rover fares calculated by reference
to season ticket rates and the average distances over which they are used,
joint ventures where the fare depends partly on the discount offered by
the third party, and special excursions where the calculated cost of running
the train provides a lower limit to the fare.

Response to fare changes
18. Figure 2 shows the movement of L & SE season ticket fares relative
to the retail price index (RPI) since mid-1974. Fares grew faster than the
RPI during 1975-77 and are now rising at about the same rate as general
inflation. Real fares are changing constantly as the retail price index moves
but it is particularly important to have good estimates of the response to
changing fares during periods when the relationship between fares and the
RPI is itself changing.

                                     FIGURE 2

              Comparison of L & SE season ticket fare index
                       with the retail price index




        200




        100 L--1
                     1975     1976         97
                                          17       98
                                                  17        1979



    Source: BRB




19. The response of demand to a change in price is generally discussed
in terms of the elasticity, which is defined (for a small change in price)
as the ratio of the proportional change in demand to the proportional change
in price. Thus the price elasticity of the demand for rail travel is given
                                     307
by the percentage change in journeys divided by the percentage change
in fare. An elasticity of zero implies that a fare increase of x per cent
raises revenue by x per cent. An elasticity of -1-0 implies that a fare
increase of x per cent leaves revenue unchanged because x per cent of
journeys are lost.
  20. A considerable amount of statistical work has been done on the price
elasticity of Inter-City travel, but less effort has been expended on the
study of commuter travel. There are three reasons for this:
     (i) Season ticket data are difficult to analyse because it is possible for
         people to switch between season tickets of different periods, obtain
         refunds on unused portions of their tickets, and pre-empt fare in-
         creases by buying at the right moment.
    (ii) For short journeys into London by rail there may be several alterna-
         tive modes or routes well-known to commuters, and people may shift
         between these as prices change.
   (iii) The proportion of the cost of a journey (in either time or money
         terms) spent on the train is less in the case of a commuter journey
         than it is in the case of an Inter-City journey so the demand for
         rail commuter travel is more likely to be affected by the parameters
         of the non-rail part of the journey.
   21. Statistical work done at TRRL using BRB's NPAAS data has esti-
mated price elasticities for suburban rail travel by type of ticket. The elasti-
cities calculated were -0-3 for season tickets, -0-7 for full fare tickets
and -1-0 for reduced fare tickets (all values approximate). This seemed
to be a plausible ranking of the elasticities in the light of BRB's 1971 OD
survey which showed that 99 per cent of season ticket holders were making
'non-optional' trips, ie journeys to work or on company business. For full
fare ticket holders the percentage of non-optional trips was 68 per cent
and for reduced fare 36 per cent. This work suggests that the price elasticity
for season ticket travel is fairly low, and that for suburban reduced fare
travel is higher, probably about the same as that for Inter-City.


Future directions for fares policy
  22. BRB feel that as real personal disposable income rises it is reasonable
to increase real rail fares as well, on the grounds that it is the rail service
which enables people to get to work and earn their money. The Board's
forecast is that rail fares will rise about 1 per cent a year in real terms
until 1993. Their forecast rise of real personal disposable income per capita
over the same period is more than 1 • 5 per cent a year.

   23. In the area of pricing up for quality improvements, BRB believe the
following opportunities exist:
     (i) ONE Suburban,
    (ii) Bedford electrification,
   (iii) Introduction of new and refurbished rolling stock.
                                      308
  (iv) Electrification schemes, particularly Western Region.
   (v) Elements of services where quality is particularly high, eg Reading,
       Woking.
  24. The Board also consider there is an opportunity for improving L
& SE revenue by traffic growth. About 17 million people live within the
L & SE area, with many reasons for making journeys, many of which
are potentially 'off-peak' and, therefore, marginal, in cost.
  Opportunities for travel, which are being developed include:
    (i) Persuasive advertising of new ideas and reasons for 'off-peak' travel,
   (ii) Marketing tourist travel within SR.
  (iii) Proposals linking inter-Regional services, overcoming or easing the
        effect of the 'cross-London' barrier.
   25. The normal relationship between season ticket fares and distances
from London has been found not to hold for some season ticket fares in
the band 15-30 miles from London. There is a particularly robust demand
for season tickets at these distances, and it is felt that there are thus both
equity and market reasons for raising those fares which are out of line.
BRB feel that this project needs wider discussion before it could be imple-
mented, because of possible adverse public reaction.
  26. The Board estimate that the possible revenue increases which would
accrue from the implementation of these various policies might be:
                                                                   £m pa (1979 prices)
                                                                    1983        1993
      (i)   Keeping in step with real income improvements            3-0         10-0
     (ii)   Quality improvements by investment in train services     2-0          4-0
    (iii)   Optional market growth                                   1-0          3-0
    (iv)    Removing pricing anomalies                               4-0          6-0
                                                                    10-0        23-0




                                             309
                                   APPENDIX 14
                         (Referred to in paragraph 12.41)
                       Growth of Management Staff
Introduction
   1. On 7 November 1979, the Minister of Transport observed that the
total number of senior officers (SO) and management staff (MS) in BRB
had grown from 7,800 in 1971 to 9,250, ie an increase of nearly 1,500.
On this basis it can be calculated that the numbers of staff in these cate-
gories increased from 13-7 per cent of the total salaried staff in 1971 to
17-6 per cent in 1979. The increase was almost entirely in MS, so we have
concentrated on these grades, looking first at L & SE and then at individual
regions.
   2. The term 'management staff is merely used by BRB to describe those
paid within 5 grades with salaries ranging from £6,750 to £11,620, the major-
ity of whom are not 'managers' within the usual definition of the term.
For instance, the group includes a wide range of specialists, such as
engineers, architects, surveyors, computer analysts and programmers, law-
yers, accountants, salesmen, senior administrative staff as well as those
in Divisional or Area management functions, whose job title includes the
word 'manager'

  3. Annex 1 shows by Region the numbers of staff in the seven Divisions
of L & SE in 1970, 1975 and 1980. There has been no significant change
in the number of senior officers but MS have increased as follows over
the period:
           Regional activities in             % increase in MS
           L & SE                               1970 to 1980
           ER                                        42
           LMR                                        5
           SR (including HQ)                         31
           WR                                        31

  4. An alternative way at looking at these figures is to calculate the
percentage of MS as a proportion of total staff involved in the activities
of the Region within L & SE:
                                    % of total   % of total   % of total
           Regional activities        staff        staff         staff
           in L&SE                    1970         1975        1980
           ER                         1-25         1-54         1-93
           LMR                        1-19         1-58         1-49
           SR (includes regional
              HQ staff)                2-85        3-52          4-17
           WR                          1-99        2-61          2-76

   5. It is apparent that there has been a substantial increase in the numbers
of MS within L & SE in ER, SR and WR, over the last decade, although
it must be set against a fall of nearly 6,000 in total staff. On the other
hand, LMR London Division managed to bring back MS numbers in 1980
                                       310
almost to the level of 1970. BRB say this is because the LMR London
Divisional and the Regional Headquarters offices are in the same location
and the opportunity has been taken to absorb the administration work of
the London division into Regional Headquarters. Other Regions with Divi-
sions in L & SE do not have this fortunate coincidence of Regional and
Divisional Headquarters being in the same building and have not been able
to carry out a similar exercise.

Southern Region
  6. Annex 2 lists the numbers of staff by grade in SR over the period
1970 to 1980. This shows that SO and MS together increased year by year,
except for the period 1975 to 1978. There was a small reduction in the
month of January 1980. As a proportion of all salaried staff in the Region,
the total of SO plus MS rose from 11-2 per cent in 1970 to 16-5 per cent
in 1980.
  7. BRB have told us that the largest increases were in the Engineering
Departments, to cope with the increased investment work. Other additional
requirements were TOPS implementation, project management and service
group management. As in all other Regions, there has been over the period,
substantial streamlining of organisation, resulting in some increase in MS
level posts but a much greater reduction in the numbers of lower-paid posts.

Eastern Region
  8. The BRB have told us that the introduction of the new-style Area
Management organisation over the period 1974 to 1976, when areas were
combined into a smaller number of larger areas, led to an increase in the
number of higher-paid posts in ER. The introduction of the new HST Depot
at Bounds Green and the transfer of the Stratford LIFT terminal1 from
Sealink UK Ltd in 1979 caused a further increase in MS posts. About half
the total increase over the period 1970-80, some 26 posts, came about as
a result of Organisation Planning, which had the effect of replacing a
number of clerical and administrative posts by a smaller number of more
highly-paid jobs.

London Midland Region
  9. Annex 3 lists the changes in all grades of staff over the decade 1970
to 1980 for LMR. This shows a similar pattern of increase to SR over
the decade although the overall increase of some 14 per cent is much less.
This was accompanied by a very sharp drop in the number of other salaried
staff, so that SO and MS together increased from 9-6 per cent of total
salaried staff in 1970 to almost 14 per cent in 1980.

Western Region
  10. In WR there was an increase of 41 in the number of MS over the
10 year period. 16 of these were caused by the introduction of the new-style

  1
      London International Freight Terminal
                                              311
Area Organisations over the period 1974 to 1976. 37 arose from increased
engineering requirements. There were decreases in other areas as a result
of management action.

Productivity proposals
   11. Under the 1980 agreement with the trade unions on MS pay and
productivity, the unions are committed to consultation and negotiation on
a number of schemes, including the following:
  (a) Rationalisation of marshalling yards with freight train service adjust-
      ments.
  (b) Rationalisation of parcels depots with parcels train service adjust-
      ments.
  (c) Control office reorganisations.
  (d) Centralisation of financial accounting.
  (e) Various administration items, including organisation planning,
      administration systems review and computer systems.
   12. Examples of changes now being progressed are the centralisation
of financial accounting which may save 1,100 out of 3,500 jobs and changes
in the role of Divisional Managers which are expected to reduce signif icantly
the numbers of staff employed in Divisional Offices.
   13. At BR HQ, the target set at the beginning of the year was to reduce
administrative staff costs by 5 per cent during 1980. Additional stringent
measures are currently being drawn up with the objective of further reduc-
ing staff costs at BR HQ during the remainder of 1980 and in 1981. The
 1980 commitment by the trade unions also covers further changes which
are likely to affect the numbers of MS.

Summary
  14.
    (i) The number of senior officers remained substantially constant over
        the decade 1970-80, at approximately 700 in the whole of the rail
        business and approximately 70 in L & SE.
   (ii) The number of MS has increased very substantially both nationally
        (approximately 1,500) and in L & SE by almost 400 over the same
        period, during which the total number of other salaried grades had
        decreased by about 10 per cent.
  (iii) All four regions examined were able to restrain or even to reverse
        the growth in MS jobs over the years 1975-78, but growth resumed
        following 1978. The Organisation Planning Exercise in LMR, London
        Division is an example of what can be achieved (albeit on a single
        site HQ).
  (iv) The MS salary scales include a wide range of professional, specialist
        and technical staff, only a proportion of whom could be termed
        'managers' in the normal sense of the word.
                                     312
   (v) On a national scale, the growth in MS staff was attributed by BRB
       to computerisation (about 800 jobs) research (mainly at Derby), Inter-
       nal Consultancy, the Strategic Development Group and Pension Fund
       Investment.
  (vi) The growth in specialist corporate BR staff would not account
       adequately for the growth in L & SE where all the Regions registered
       an increase (although the increase at LMR London Division was
       very small). Nevertheless we have been informed of a number of
       developments in each Region which could contribute to the increases
       recorded.
 (vii) An important factor in the growth of MS staff has undoubtedly been
       administrative reorganisation, which has reduced the number of more
       junior staff and has led to the creation of fewer, more senior, jobs
       with increased responsibility.
(viii) The Board's Productivity proposals if implemented, will have the
       effect of reducing the number of MS jobs, especially at Divisional
       level and should assist in curbing the progressive growth in this area.




                                   313
                                                                              ANNEX 1
                        NUMBERS OF STAFF IN L & SE
                                                    1970     1975      1980
              Senior Officers         ER               8        9         1
                                      LMR              3        5         4
                                      SR              54       48        52
                                      WR               6        5         6

                 TOTAL                                71       67       69
              Management Staff        ER            136       162       193
                                      LMR            91       113        96
                                      SR            959     1,161     1,254
                                      WR             95       111       124

                   TOTAL                           1,281    1,547     1,667
              Clerical Officers       ER           1,597    1,529     1,405
                                      LMR          1,122    1,069       916
                                      SR           4,806    4,453     3,907
                                      WR             799      646       521

                  TOTAL                            8,324    7,697     6,749
              Professional & Technical ER             12        15       17
                                      LMR             21       21        16
                                      SR             603      650       649
                                      WR               1         5       38

                 TOTAL                              637       691      720
              Supervisors             ER             494      568       582
                                      LMR            529      554       550
                                      SR           1,597    1,898     1,813
                                      WR             275      263       312

                  TOTAL                            2,895    3,283     3,257
                  TOTAL ALL STAFF     ER          10,897   10,538    10,021
                                      LMR          7,637    7,140     6,450
                                      SR          33,634   33,022    30,104
                                      WR           4,781    4,256     4,493

                  TOTAL                           56,949   54,916    51,068


Source: BRB




                                            314
                                                                                                        ANNEX 2
                                                                                Manpower 1970-80, Southern Region
Date                            Salaried Staff                                                                                           Wages Staff




                                                5 Controller
                                o                                                        •2J                                                                                  o1           a




                                                                                                                                                         ^ Overhead
                               ,<2                                                                                                                                                 *
Group                                                                             "S     .a      J3       £     ~o                * 5 I                                      -c    >
                                                                                v§        Q.     ^J      ***    ••** -il               <3




                                                               o o °"*r
                                                                                                  C       <3      <J Jft.          3
                                                                                                                                  7 *>
                                                                                                                                                                       u     •if    fc




                                                               N> -J Salaried
                               8,                                                                 a       c      cS               a >




                                                                                                                                                           Line
of                    1                                                                   O
                      <u                                                                                                          0 "C    l&                          •2      o    •«
Staff                 a        %       a,                                       £3,      £
                                                                                                  3      .60     O g
                                                                                                                                  *Q     *£                                 ^ Q           1      I?
 1.1.70     926 4,757 1,763           551                                       8,258 3,840 2,187       1,540 7,474 516           22 3,695 1,055                            ,9
                                                                                                                                                                      374* 4 0 7 see*
                                                                                                                                                                                 misc    25,206 33,464


                                                £
 1.1.71 1,017 4,777 1,776                                                       8,403 3,842 2,119 1,482 7,498 497




                                                                                                                                                         _j
                                      583                                                                                         21     3,782 1,048                  358* 4,520 see*
                                                                                                                                                                                 misc    25,174 33,577
 1.1.72    1,0%     ,6
                   466      1,890     624      146             106              8,528   3,883   2,187   ,412    7,402       484   18     3,908   1,024     8                ,0
                                                                                                                                                                      278 4 6 4 67       25,275 33,803
 1.1.73    1,150   4,565    1,874     631      148              96              8,464   3,832   2,160   ,357   7,101        422   19     3,857   1,075     7          268 4,511 58       24,667 33,131
 1.1.74    1,194   4,411    1,900     638      145             103              8,391   3,745   2,036   ,298   6,631        376   20     3,631   1,061     8          250 4,431    47    23,534 31,925
 1.1.75    1,209   4,453    1,898     650      138             105              8,453   3,847   2,097   ,208    6,764       402   22     4,266   1,136     8          261 4,514    44    24,569 33,022
 1.1.76    1,217   4,308    1,884     653      146              92              8,300   3,853   2,145   ,198     ,9
                                                                                                                640         383   30     4,192   1,059     8          245 4,425 43       24,071 32,371
 1.1.77    1,199   4,222    1,866     686      153              57              8,183   3,813   2,134   ,173    6,209       380   27     400
                                                                                                                                          ,8     1,051     8          215 4,322 43       23,455 31,638
 1.1.78    1,208   4,125    1,833     650      150              51              8,017   3,755   3,175   ,126    5,978       361   23     3,977   1,081     7          201 1,240    38    22,%2 30,979
 1.1.79    1,232    ,6
                   400      1,832     658      142              49              7,973   3,778   2,204   ,097   5,921        366   26     3,952   1.104     5          191 4,203 32       22,879 30,852
 1.1.80    1,310   3,%3     1,824     654      131              48              7,930   3,833   2,211   ,079    5,864       343   22     3,833   1,119     5          187 4,256 32       22,784 30,714
26.1.80    1,304   3,941    1,820     657      135              47              7,904   3,833   2,175   ,072    5,760       340   23     3,731   1,109     5          184 4,222 33       22,487 30,391
  Source. BRB

 (The numbers of staff for the years 1970-74 have been modified by BRB to exclude staff transferred (in July 1974) to the Property Board etc.)
                                                                                                           ANNEX 3
                                                                         ITJL«lllp1JWCl       J.^/VI                          CU1U AX^gAVUl
 England for Her Majest)




                           Date                         Salaried Staff                                                                  Wages Staff


                                                                                                       O            £                                                          2
                                                        Z             C                                                           Q<                                                    1
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                                                                                                       * | S£ |§> § c                   fc
                                                                                                                                        §
                                                                                                                                        c        (_,
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                                                                                                                                                                       a
                                                                                                                                                                          *^  1        1
                                                                                                                                                                                                  ait:

                                                                      a
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                                                                            •M
                                                                                                                                                                               |».
                           of
                                                       1                               al t                 1 «^= £ £ H 2               R >>            "S <u          *               "o      "3 co
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11
                           Staff
                             1.1.70
                                        1 6
                                      1,595   9,316
                                                       CO
                                                      3,588
                                                               0,
                                                              1,296   672
                                                                            53
                                                                             149
                                                                                        o « o
                                                                                       Kco h,
                                                                                                      3
                                                                                                       1 4,423 10,054 2,334 ^5 7,158
                                                                                      16,615 9,621 4,355
                                                                                                            3 e£ <s« 169 ll                      CO
                                                                                                                                                1,861
                                                                                                                                                        2.1
                                                                                                                                                        0^
                                                                                                                                                        254
                                                                                                                                                                 1
                                                                                                                                                                797
                                                                                                                                                                       I
                                                                                                                                                                      6,586
                                                                                                                                                                              1
                                                                                                                                                                               60    47,672   64,287
-S                           1.1.71   1,655   8,864   3,510   1,278   619    156      16,082 9,326 4,507    4,149   9,5% 2,053    192   7,266   1,704   273     944   6,350    51    46,411   62,493
Jls                          1.1.72   1,633   8,323   3,530   1,146   586    150      15,368 8,880 4,384    3,427   9,533 2,045   222   7,053   1,558   242     767   6,029   153    44,293   59,661
  5"                         1.1.73   1,641   7,948   3,456   1,162   572    115      14,894 8,509 4,288    3,121   10,133 763    228   7,089   1,663   251     556   5,919   203    45,123   57,617
          03                 1.1.74   1,651   7,712   3,430   1,137   558     90      14,578 8,331 4,095    2,704   9,679 755     231   6,620   1,598   268     444   5,677   178    40,580   55,158
          O                  1.1.75   1,662   7,801   3,437   1,113   555     93      14,661 8,340 4,254    2,590   9,880 725     218   6,691   1,591   298     553   5,828   103    41,071   55,732
                             1.1.76   1,660   7,612   3,485   1,076   556    101      14,463 8,151 4,067    2,591   9,331 716     217   6,596   1,578   287     513   5,848    52    39,947   54,410
           C/J
                             1.1.77   1,602   7,173   3,371   1,061   531     89      13,827 7,799 3,852    2,562   8,659 676     219   6,332   1,604   283     485   5,578    52    38,101   51,928
                             1.1.78   1,488   6,842   3,291   1,035   453     61      13,170 7,664 3,834    2,454   8,345 643     216   6,423   1,6%    270     479   5,494    59    37,577   50,747
           1
                             1.1.79   1,686   6,552   3,262   1,012   438     43      12,993 7,722 3,837    2,369   8,372 626     221   6,678   1,779   278     466   5,551    51    37,950   50,943
           i3
                             1.1.80
                           19.4.80
                                      1,813
                                      1,822
                                              6,493
                                              6,398
                                                      3,228
                                                      3,233
                                                                982
                                                              1,015
                                                                      426
                                                                      420
                                                                              47
                                                                              31
                                                                                      12,989 7,656 3,805
                                                                                      12,919 7,601 3,764
                                                                                                            2,297
                                                                                                            2,277
                                                                                                                    8,190 590
                                                                                                                    7,941 579
                                                                                                                                  225
                                                                                                                                  224
                                                                                                                                        6,713
                                                                                                                                        6,504
                                                                                                                                                1,813
                                                                                                                                                1,752
                                                                                                                                                        282
                                                                                                                                                        276
                                                                                                                                                                443
                                                                                                                                                                430
                                                                                                                                                                      5,586
                                                                                                                                                                      5,472
                                                                                                                                                                               43
                                                                                                                                                                               42
                                                                                                                                                                                     37,643
                                                                                                                                                                                     36,862
                                                                                                                                                                                              50,632
                                                                                                                                                                                              49,781
            5?               Source: BRB
            3-

				
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