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					'Cost effective measures and
  planning of traffic safety

   Planning philosophies and preferences
       Use of CBA in Sweden/Europe
             Physical planning
             Four step principal
            Speed Limit Review
       Planning philosophies
More complex
Rail investments – road development
Industries and villages
Conditions for living and welfare

Caused by many individual reasons and
decisions not by strategic planning
      Processes of decisions
• Extreme 1: Rational perspective
• Extreme 2: Wagging the way forward
• Visionary: Main problem and future status
  in clear picture (Vision Zero)
• Planning: Defining goals from problems to
  solve. Goals define valuations.
• Consensus oriented: Acceptance
  through discussions with parties; goals,
  problems
                                Visionary
                                Visionary & Planning
                                Planning
                                Planning & Consensus
                                Consensus
                                Consensus & Visionary



European cities use of different decision models. Source: EU
project PROSPECTS


Consider this! Russia model today and in the future?
Russia and Tatarstan/Kazan?
              Welfare preferences
  5 children have found a puppet in a basement.

   Consider this! Who should have the puppet?

1) He/she fixed the key and that made it possible to get into
   the basement. Compensation after work/Aristoteles
2) He/she is the strongest of them all and if he/she don’t get
   the puppet she will start a fight, which she probably will
   win. Negotiation positioning/Hobbes
3) He/she spotted the puppet first and thats why she must
   have it. Practical philosofic arguments/Locke, Nozick
4) It means most for he/she, because the collection will be
   completed then. Utility maximization principle
5) He/she is underprivileged and has no puppet at all.
   Maximize-Minimize principle/Rawls
    Cost Effective Measures and Planning
         of Traffic Safety in Sweden
•   Beauty Contest!
•   Cost Benefit Analysis Method
•   Four step principal
•   Physical planning

• Review of Speed Limits in Sweden
   Goals in transport policy (1)
The overall goal of transport policy in
  accordance with the Swedish
  Parliament’s decision in 1998:
• to ensure a socio-economically
  efficient transport system that is
  sustainable in the long term for
  individuals and the business
  community throughout the country.
   Goals in transport policy (2)

This goal is divided into six subsidiary goals:
• An accessible transport system: The transport
  system is to be designed so as to meet the basic
  transport needs of individuals and the business
  community.
• High transport quality: The design and function
  of the transport system is to permit a high level
  of transport quality for individuals and the
  business community.
• Positive regional development: The transport
    Goals in transport policy (3)

This goal is divided into six subsidiary goals:
• Safe traffic: The long-term goal for road traffic safety is
  for nobody to be killed or seriously injured as a result of
  traffic accidents. The design and operation of the road
  transport system should be brought into line with the
  requirements that this goal entails.
• A good environment: The design and performance of the
  transport system should be adapted to the requirements
  for a good and healthy living environment for everyone,
  where natural and cultural environments are protected
  against damage. Good management of land, water,
  energy and other natural resources is to be promoted.
• A gender-equal road transport system: The road
  transport system is to be designed to fulfil the transport
  needs of both women and men. Women and men are to
              Since 1997


• In October 1997 the Swedish Parliment
  adopted a ”Vision Zero” approach as a basis for
  Sweden´s long-term road safety objectives.
             Beauty Contest!
• The most effect per invested capital
  – killed and seriously injured persons /
    investing capital cost (euro)
  – Priority to maximize number of saved persons for a
    given budget.

• Effects and impacts have been collected and
  documented in a knowledge based document
  used by all planning in road sector.
• Equivalent for other transport mode system
    Estimate Effect                               examples
• Speed reduction - (speed after/speed before)4,5. If speed is
  reduced from 100 km/h to 90 km/h it will give about 38%
  reductions for expected fatalities.

• A pedestrian sidewalk can give somewhere between 40-80
  percent reduction, depending on if the sidewalk is on both
  sides of the road or on one side; if its completely separated
  from vehicles or partly separated.

• Steel guard rails and/or removing obstacles from roadside
  can reduce the severity of accident outcome with 15-60%.
     Estimate effects                                              example


• Pedestrian crosswalks are estimated to about 20-30 %, with island and
  footpath extension and fences up to 50%.

• Medians give a reduction for pedestrian with about 20-25% and for head on
  collisions almost 100%.

• Improved visibility and guidance, including illumination is estimated to
  give an accident reduction about 20-30%. Illumination can even give a
  bigger reduction, up to 65%, if a “black spot” is found where accidents
  appear in dark hours.

• Important that the situation in the specific village under investigation is
  taken into consideration when estimating the effects.
   Estimate investment costs
• Calculate construction costs per unit of typical
  road construction works
• Calculate costs for the designed modules
• Determinate costs for maintenance and costs for
  individual measures, land aquisation, ..
      Presentation about the
    Cost–Benefit Analysis
for the Road-Safety-Measure project
         Cost–Benefit
          Analysis
• Weighing the total expected costs against the
  total expected benefits of one or more actions
  in order to choose the best or most profitable
  option
                       HEATCO
Developing Harmonised European Approaches for Transport Costing
                   and Project Assessment.

             Project in 6 frame programme 2002-2006.
          Project owner: European Commission, DGTREN
                  Final version report 17 maj 2006.

                            Consortium:
  IER University of Stuttgart Tyskland, University of Bath UK, EIT
University of Las Palmas Spain, COWI Denmark, BUTE Hungary, ISIS
Italy, Ecoplan Schweiz, TNO Dutch Nederland, VTI Sweden, SWECO
 Norway, ITS Leeds UK, Herry Consult Germany, NTUA Greece and
                          Sudop Tjeckien.
• Evaluation methodes of projects with several countries involved
• Evaluation of EU fonds projects
• Harmonizing of assessment with one framework. (Some countries
  without consistent method).
• Purpose: Guidelines based on criterias socioeconomic efficiency,
  open and clear studies, and support from member countries
  decision makers.
             Decision criterias
• NPV (net present value) = (positive=recommend)
• BCR (benefit cost ratio) = (>0 =recommend)
• RNPSS (ratio of NPV and public sector support)
  (>1=recommend, valid for priorities with limited budget)
• FYRR (first year rate of return) – valid for decison of
  optimal opening year for a project.
•   Real changes during project lifetime years
•   Factor prices/market prices
•   No monetized effects
•   Lifetime period
•   Risk and uncertainty
•   Discounting
•   Allocation of effects
•   Marginal Cost of Public Funds
• Values of Time
• Values of risk and accidents
• Noice
• Air pollutions
• Climate gases
• Other specific situations of environmental aspects
• Construction cost
• Planning cost: Only costs after decision made
• Land use costs: land value, cost for buying process.
• Cost for trafficants during activities: (=Trafficant extra cost): Estimate
  effect and value as ordinary time value
• Maintenance costs
              Accident data
We assume that reported fatalities are probably most
accurate. With the figures of fatalities as a starting point
one could expect the number of severe injured to be
about 3 times the fatalities and light injured and damage
only about 8 times the fatalities
Accident cost in European countries
 related to GDP (Gross Domestic
             Product)
                                 Consider this!!
A positive CBA-ratio is an information to the decision maker that the project is positive
   for the society.
The non monetized effects can on the other hand be positive (better) or negative
   (worse) for the society.
How to prioritize between investment package A, B, C and D?

                                     Non monetized         Non monetized
                                     effect better         effect worse

               CBA Positive          A                     C

               CBA Negative          B                     D
              Typical costs
   - if made right from the beginning

           Current costs
                           Costs for highest safety   Increase   Effectiveness
             in EURO



Road      1500              1,515 (barriers)            1%          90%


Vehicle   20,000             20,002 (SBR)             0.01%         20%


Vehicle   20,000            20,020 (alcohol)          0.1%          20%


Vehicle   20,000            20,200 (speed)              1%          20%
      MID-BARRIERS / CENTRE
           GUARD RAILS
• A centre guard rail
  prevents head-on
  collisions, thereby making
  a rural road of standard
  width considerably safer.
• Appr. 1000 km in 2004
• Goal: 2000 km in 2007
• Test started in 1998
  with 6 projects
• AADT 4000 - 22000
What purpose have socioeconomic analysis and
calculations had so far, and how should it be
tomorrow?
• It’s obvious that decisions divert from results.
  This goes for beneficial and non-beneficial
  projects!
   – Rail tunnel in Malmoe (NPV/C<0)
   – Road plans in Stockholm (NPV<0)
   – A number of rail projects (bothnia stretch, Hallands
     tunnel) (NPV/C < 0)
   – Bypass Sveg (NPV/C= 6)
   – Russia projects?
           The Four Step Principle
             Measures that affect
             transport needs and    Possible measures
               choice of mode of          step 1
                   transport


            Measures that lead to                           Balancing and
                more efficient      Possible measures   prioritising measures
 Short-
               utilisation of the         step 2
comings/    existing road network
                                                            with different
 Needs                                                   effects, costs and
                                                         time perspectives
             Road improvements
                                    Possible measures
                 and minor
                                          step 3
                conversions

            New investments and     Possible measures
             major conversions            step 4
The use of Cost Benefit Analysis at SRA




                         Costs
          Benefits
        The Planning Procedure in three levels
1. Planning in a strategically
   level.
  Concerning all traffic
  modes: road, railway, air
  and shipping
2. System analysis of the road
                                                          Costs
   network.                      Benefits
   Improvement of the road
   network in a large scale
                                 CBA is used in all three levels
3. Road projects.
   Individual actions to the
   roads
            Factors to CBA
     Impacts not to          Valued Impacts
       be settled            • Travel time
                             • Vehicle costs
        Estimated
                             • Traffic Safety
         Impacts
                             • Environmental issues
                             • Maintenance costs
         Valued              • Noise
        Impacts
                             Estimated Impacts
                             • Barrier impacts

- Environmental protection
  - Impacts of a region
       Foundation of decisions
The Population               Forecast concerning the
The Economy                  future need of
etc                          transportation

             The Road network
                      Can be improved by..
              Alternative actions
                             Lead to impacts..
         Impacts                  Impacts
     Valued into money      Not valued into money


    Cost Benefit Analysis      Fulfilment of
                                the Aims

                               As a basis
      Total judgement             for ...

                             Decision of action
     Transport demand forecasting models
                  Overall assumptions now and in the future
National institute                           Models for national long term
for statistik etc.                           economic forecast
                                             - EMEC            - rAps

 - Population    - Business sector, export and import   - Employment, incoms          - Infrastructure
 - Car ownership - GDP-growth                           - Taxation, charges, regulation


SAMGODS – The Swedish model                        SAMPERS – The Swedish model
system for freight transports                      system for passenger traveling
- Foreign trade                                    - Car ownership
- VTI/TPR                                          - Regional travel (5 models)
- STAN (system optimizing)                         - National travel
                                                   - International travel
                                                   - EMME/2 (user optimizing)

SAMKALK GODS                                       ACCESSIBILITY                  SAMKALK
                                                   MODUL
    Use of SAMGODS / SAMPERS
• Strategic infrastructure planning for the planning
  period 2004-15
• Freight transport forecast for 2010 and for 2020
• Freight corridor study
• Transport mileage forecast for 2020 – analys
  enviroment impacts
• Impacts from congestion charges Stockholm
• Bothnia railway
                                Effect profile
         Summary of impacts according to the
                 Transport policy


Transport sub goal                       Negative         Positive
Effect                             ---    --   -    0 +   ++   +++   Comments
Accessibility
..for pedestrians and bicyclists
..for public transports/buses
..for cars
..for heavy vehicles
Flexibility between modes
Transport quality
Bearing capacity, surface,
winter service level
Safe Traffic
Number of killed and severely
wounded
..and pedestrians/unprotected
                    Effect profile - continued ..
Transport sub goal              Negative   Positive
Good environment
Emissions of Carbondioxid
(CO2)
Health effects
Noise and vibrations
Sustainability
Nature, culture and landscape
Positive Regional
Development
Regional growth
Regional distribution
Gender equality
Gender-equal road transport
system
Fulfilment of transport
         policy
    Transport policy
    Goals and aims


                          Contribution
                         to the goals ?

         Impacts



Action to the road network
             Summary and conclusions

• CBA is a useful method to the long-term planning, but be
  useful in some other cases of planning matters.
• CBA is one of many foundations for decision-making.
• CBA doesn’t present the whole truth.
• CBA could in some cases be misused by the decision-makers.
• CBA is used more a less for investments only
• Need to extend the use of CBA for other actions.
• Lack of measure / effect correlation for some of actions.
Physical Transport Planning
          Process
   ”GAP ANALYSIS”

   INITIAL STUDY

 FEASIBILITY STUDY

   DESIGN PLAN

BUILDING DOCUMENT
            The four-step principle
Transport needs                Improvements and
and means of
transport
                      1    3   minor conversions




More efficient use
of the road network   2    4   New investments
                               and major
                               conversions
        The four steps
1.Measures that effect transport
  needs and choice of mode of
  transport

2.Measures that lead to more efficient
  utilisation of the existing road
  network

3.Road improvements and minor
  conversions

4.New investments and major
  conversions
             Work method
           Measures that affect
           transport needs and     Possible measures
             choice of mode of           step 1
                 transport


           Measures that lead to                           Balancing and
               more efficient      Possible measures   prioritising measures
 Short-
              utilisation of the         step 2
comings/   existing road network
                                                           with different
 Needs                                                  effects, costs and
                                                        time perspectives
           Road improvements
                                   Possible measures
               and minor
                                         step 3
              conversions

           New investments and     Possible measures
            major conversions            step 4
     Example                     E4 Ljungby

             Lower traffic
                                                      Choise of
                                   No measure found    measures:
              intensity ?
                                                      • Immidiate
Severe    Traffic regulation ?      Lowered speed       Lower speed
head on                                                 110 to 80
  coll-       Minor road                                km/h
                                    Construction
 isions      construction
                                    midbarrier 2+1    • Short
             measures ?
                                                        perspective
              Major road                                Midbarrier 2+1
                                    Construction
             construction
                                    motorway 2+2      • Long
              measures?
                                                        perspective
                                                        Motorway 2+2
Review and Implementation of
      new Speed Limits
     Sweden 2008 – 2009
incorporated to present speed
    limits 30 50 70 90 110
             New Speed Limits
 Parliament decision may 2007: Road Administration,
  Regional Governments and Municipalities have the
  right to decide on speed limits from 30 to 120 km/h with
  succession of 10 km/h step.

 Government decide in traffic regulation so Road
  Administration can implement speed limits 80, 100 and
  120 km/h.

 The new regulation starts from 2 may 2008.

 General Director of Road Administration decide on
  guidelines for the implementation of new speed limits,
  December 2007.
    In a long term perspective
              shall…
”… a consecutive adjustment of speed limits
  towards vision zero and that demand on
  accessibility, good environment, positive
  regional development and an equal
  transport system been taken in
  consideration.

Governmental Proposition of New Speed
 Limits
  New Speed Limits – Why ???
 Present system from 1971 (1955 urban areas)
 ”Inconsistency” of decisions during that time period.
 Speed limits have not been considered from humans
  ability to handle physical violence.
 New transport policy goals have been decided.
 From safety- and environmental perspective, is 20-step
  to big.
 Road transport system can be utilized more efficiently
  with respect to all transport policy goals.
 Acceptance for new speed limits should increase.
 New road types since 1971.
  How shall this be implemented??
 Road Administration review of roads
  outside urban areas (mostly 90 and 110
  roads)
 Municipalities implement new speed limits
  within planned urban areas.
 Regional governments adjust local speed
  limit decisions and private roads.
 Review in close coperation with new long
  term plan 2010 – 2020.
     (When) Time schedule state
Phase 1 - National roads
                         roads road and major other roads
                         Autumn European
                                 2008
     - Motorway 120 km/h      Autumn European road and major other roads
                                2008
Phase 2 - Other major      Spring 2009 Secondary roads
roads
Phase 3 – Other roads         Autumn Other roads
                                2009
    Criteria for speed limit decision
 Accessibility – road connections important to keep or preserve higher
   speed limit, is road connections important for commuting, extended local
   labour market functionality, high share of long distance transports, rural
   areas with longer transports in sparsely populated areas or high importance
   for freight transports.

 Traffic Safety – physical damage violence on human being

 Environment – harmonically speed limits, national Carbondioxide (CO2)
   goals, local concentrations of pollutions and noice level. Increased
   externalities on a certain road network can be compensated of reductions on
   other road network.

 Trafficant acceptance – Fare, logical, clear and self explanatory
   speed limits
Consequences
• Reduction of killed persons annually: 10 persons
• Carbondioxide (CO2) reduction: 10’000 ton/year
• Travel time increase with 2 miljon hour/year cars
  and buses
• Indifferent transport time for heavy lorries.
• Valuable socioeconomic benefits annually 6 MECU
  (Milj Euros)


• But … 700’000 ton/year CO2 and 150 saved life
             Just follow the present speed limits
         2
             la
               ne
                    ro
                      ad




                                                                         Relative risk
                             6m
    2




                                                   0
                                                          1
                                                               2
                                                                     3
                                                                                         4
                                                                                             5
                                                                                                 6
                                                                                                     7

        la                          70
          ne                             km
               ro                          /h
                 ad
                         8




                                                                   5
                             -9
                               m
        2                           90
            la                           km
              ne
                   ro                      /h
                     ad
                             13
                                m
                                                               4,5
                                    90
            2+
               1                         km
                   se                         /h
                     pa
Se                     ra
  pa                     te
                                                                       6,5




    ra                     d
      te                            90
         d                               km
              m
                   ot                         /h
                        or
                           w
                            ay
                                                                                                         Relative risk of killed




                                                       0,95



                                 11
                                   0
                                       km
               M                            /h
                ot
                        or
                           w
                            ay
                                                        1,35




                                 11
                                   0
                                         km
                                              /h
                                                       1
City streets
Schools

Mixed
 Streets on
 main net
 Pedestrian
 ways
Urban areas
 Major Traffic links
 Few/distant intersections
 Separated pedestrian roadway
 Two lane
  roads with
  high risk
  accidents with
  killed and
  severly
  damage
 (Today 90-
  road without
Road important for
business and
industry transports –
today 70 - road
Roads with rumble strip
barrier and placed
streches for passing (2+1)
< 4000 vehicle/day
Normal speed limit
with mid barrier
fence

Separated lanes with mid
barrier fence (2+1, 2+2,
1+1) with good standard on
road side areas
Motorways
   Normal 110 km/hour




  120 km/hour with high safety standard
  and relatively low traffic volume
Schematic review
new speed limits
in Sweden 2008
                   Higher Lower
               Communication with partners
                  Meetings, suggestions, discussions


Police                            Swedish spedition org
NTF (traffic safety org)          Swedish Municipalities and Health care
Taxi/Cab org                      Bus org
Motormännen/Org for trafficants   Regional governments
Traffic education org             ...
Car testing institute             ...
Municipalities                    ...
        More Information
• Per-j.eriksson@vv.se
• Linda.bengtsson@external.vv.se
• Elena.vikstrom@vv.se

• www.vv.se/nyahastighetsgranser
Questions?

				
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