forecasting by dandanhuanghuang

VIEWS: 4 PAGES: 53

									             GM          Nike
           Revenue EPS Revenue EPS
 Winters    3234.0 1.260 191.9 0.269
Regression 2736.1 1.388 279.4 0.208

(RMSE)
                                                     GM Revenue
          60000




          50000




          40000
Revenue




          30000




          20000




          10000




             0
                  1-91   1-92   1-93   1-94   1-95     1-96        1-97   1-98   1-99   1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                              Quarters
       GM_Rev GM_EPS
1-91    29200   -1.28
2-91    31300   -1.44
3-91    28900   -1.88
4-91    33600   -4.25
1-92    32000   -0.53
2-92    35200   -1.18
3-92    29400   -1.86
4-92    35800   -1.25
1-93    35000    0.42
2-93    36658    0.92
3-93    30138   -0.49
4-93    37268    1.28
1-94    37495    1.86
2-94    40392    2.23
3-94    34510     0.4
4-94    42553    1.74
1-95    43285    2.51
2-95    42204    2.39
3-95    35316    0.42
4-95    43935    1.98
1-96    39240    0.94
2-96    44780    2.63
3-96    39078    1.57
4-96    35183    0.92
1-97    42241    2.30
2-97    45146    2.68
3-97    41890    1.35
4-97    43303    2.37
1-98    40024    2.31
2-98    37272    0.54
3-98    33525   -1.28
4-98    44624    2.69
1-99    42435    3.10
2-99    45067    2.99
3-99    42794    1.35
4-99    46262    1.92
1-00    46858    2.88
2-00    48743    2.99
3-00    42690    1.57
4-00    46341   -0.64
1-01    42615    0.54
2-01    46220    1.05
3-01    42475   -0.41
4-01    45950     0.6
1-02    46264    0.58
2-02    48265    2.48
3-02
            A   B             C         D   E           F
 1                  GM_Rev   GM_EPS             Trend       1Q
 2   1-91            29200      -1.28               1        1
 3   2-91            31300      -1.44               2        0
 4   3-91            28900      -1.88               3        0
 5   4-91            33600      -4.25               4        0
 6   1-92            32000      -0.53               5        1
 7   2-92            35200      -1.18               6        0
 8   3-92            29400      -1.86               7        0
 9   4-92            35800      -1.25               8        0
10   1-93            35000       0.42               9        1
11   2-93            36658       0.92              10        0
12   3-93            30138      -0.49              11        0
13   4-93            37268       1.28              12        0
14   1-94            37495       1.86              13        1
15   2-94            40392       2.23              14        0
16   3-94            34510        0.4              15        0
17   4-94            42553       1.74              16        0
18   1-95            43285       2.51              17        1
19   2-95            42204       2.39              18        0
20   3-95            35316       0.42              19        0
21   4-95            43935       1.98              20        0
22   1-96            39240       0.94              21        1
23   2-96            44780       2.63              22        0
24   3-96            39078       1.57              23        0
25   4-96            35183       0.92              24        0
26   1-97            42241       2.30              25        1
27   2-97            45146       2.68              26        0
28   3-97            41890       1.35              27        0
29   4-97            43303       2.37              28        0
30   1-98            40024       2.31              29        1
31   2-98            37272       0.54              30        0
32   3-98            33525      -1.28              31        0
33   4-98            44624       2.69              32        0
34   1-99            42435       3.10              33        1
35   2-99            45067       2.99              34        0
36   3-99            42794       1.35              35        0
37   4-99            46262       1.92              36        0
38   1-00            46858       2.88              37        1
39   2-00            48743       2.99              38        0
40   3-00            42690       1.57              39        0
41   4-00            46341      -0.64              40        0
42   1-01            42615       0.54              41        1
43   2-01            46220       1.05              42        0
44   3-01            42475      -0.41              43        0
45   4-01            45950        0.6              44        0
46   1-02            46264       0.58              45        1
47   2-02            48265       2.48              46        0
48   3-02                                          47        0
49                                                 48        0
50                                                 49        1
51                                                 50        0
      A               B              C                 D              E                F
 52                                                                          51             0
 53                                                                          52             0
 54                                                                          53             1
 55                                                                          54             0
 56                                                                          55             0
 57                                                                          56             0
 58                                                                          57             1
 59                                                                          58             0
 60                                                                          59             0
 61                                                                          60             0
 62
 63       Revenue Model
 64
 65               Regression Statistics
 66       Multiple R                    0.8852
 67       R Square                      0.7835
 68       Adjusted R Square             0.7624
 69       Standard Error           2736.1392
 70       Observations                      46
 71
 72       ANOVA
 73                                  df             SS             MS                  F
 74       Regression                        4 1111067275.3109 277766818.8277           37.1026
 75       Residual                         41 306944777.4065    7486457.9855
 76       Total                            45 1418012052.7174
 77
 78                             Coefficients     Standard Error      t Stat         P-value
 79       Intercept              33286.7628           1101.4629          30.2205        0.0000
 80       Trend                    335.8508              30.4091         11.0444        0.0000
 81       1Q                     -1289.9144           1142.5337          -1.1290        0.2655
 82       2Q                       423.4015           1142.1290           0.3707        0.7128
 83       3Q                     -4582.6038           1167.0899          -3.9265        0.0003
 84
 85       EPS Model
 86
 87               Regression Statistics
 88       Multiple R            0.595251173
 89       R Square              0.354323959
 90       Adjusted R Square     0.291331175
 91       Standard Error        1.388210711
 92       Observations                   46
 93
 94       ANOVA
 95                                  df               SS              MS               F
 96       Regression                        4       43.35912281     10.8397807     5.624834057
 97       Residual                         41       79.01228806    1.927128977
 98       Total                            45       122.3714109
 99
100                              Coefficients    Standard Error       t Stat         P-value
101       Intercept             -0.756027668        0.558839453    -1.352853068    0.183516232
      A           B         C           D              E               F
102       Trend        0.059379941   0.015428373    3.848749261   0.000407732
103       1Q           0.692789032   0.579677203    1.195128993   0.238904071
104       2Q           0.854242424    0.57947185    1.474174154   0.148072198
105       3Q          -0.542438241   0.592136067   -0.916070261   0.364986994
     G        H        I        J              K
 1       2Q       3Q       Rev Forecast   EPS Forecast
 2        0        0       32332.69928    -0.003858696
 3        1        0       34381.86594     0.216974638
 4        0        1       29711.71146    -1.120326087
 5        0        0       34630.16601    -0.518507905
 6        0        0       33676.10244     0.233661067
 7        1        0        35725.2691     0.454494401
 8        0        1       31055.11462    -0.882806324
 9        0        0       35973.56917    -0.280988142
10        0        0        35019.5056      0.47118083
11        1        0       37068.67227     0.692014163
12        0        1       32398.51779    -0.645286561
13        0        0       37316.97233    -0.043468379
14        0        0       36362.90876     0.708700593
15        1        0       38412.07543     0.929533926
16        0        1       33741.92095    -0.407766798
17        0        0       38660.37549     0.194051383
18        0        0       37706.31192     0.946220356
19        1        0       39755.47859     1.167053689
20        0        1       35085.32411    -0.170247036
21        0        0       40003.77866     0.431571146
22        0        0       39049.71509     1.183740119
23        1        0       41098.88175     1.404573452
24        0        1       36428.72727     0.067272727
25        0        0       41347.18182     0.669090909
26        0        0       40393.11825     1.421259881
27        1        0       42442.28491     1.642093215
28        0        1       37772.13043      0.30479249
29        0        0       42690.58498     0.906610672
30        0        0       41736.52141     1.658779644
31        1        0       43785.68808     1.879612978
32        0        1        39115.5336     0.542312253
33        0        0       44033.98814     1.144130435
34        0        0       43079.92457     1.896299407
35        1        0       45129.09124      2.11713274
36        0        1       40458.93676     0.779832016
37        0        0        45377.3913     1.381650198
38        0        0       44423.32773      2.13381917
39        1        0        46472.4944     2.354652503
40        0        1       41802.33992     1.017351779
41        0        0       46720.79447      1.61916996
42        0        0        45766.7309     2.371338933
43        1        0       47815.89756     2.592172266
44        0        1       43145.74308     1.254871542
45        0        0       48064.19763     1.856689723
46        0        0       47110.13406     2.608858696
47        1        0       49159.30072     2.829692029
48        0        1       44489.14625     1.492391304
49        0        0       49407.60079     2.094209486
50        0        0       48453.53722     2.846378458
51        1        0       50502.70389     3.067211792
           G          H       I   J   K
 52               0       1
 53               0       0
 54               0       0
 55               1       0
 56               0       1
 57               0       0
 58               0       0
 59               1       0
 60               0       1
 61               0       0
 62
 63
 64
 65
 66
 67
 68
 69
 70
 71
 72
 73 Significance F
 74          0.0000
 75
 76
 77
 78
 79
 80
 81
 82
 83
 84
 85
 86
 87
 88
 89
 90
 91
 92
 93
 94
 95 Significance F
 96   0.001053106
 97
 98
 99
100
101
                                              GM Revenue - Linear Trend
          60000




          50000




          40000
Revenue




          30000




          20000
                                                                          y = 340.23x + 31862
                                                                               R² = 0.6618


          10000




             0
                  1-91   1-92   1-93   1-94    1-95    1-96        1-97        1-98     1-99    1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                              Quarters
                                              GM Revenue - Logarithmic Trend
          60000




          50000




          40000
Revenue




          30000




          20000

                                                                      y = 5162.3ln(x) + 24937
                                                                            R² = 0.6601

          10000




             0
                  1-91   1-92   1-93   1-94       1-95    1-96        1-97     1-98     1-99    1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                                 Quarters
                                              GM Revenue - Polynomial Trend
          60000




          50000




          40000
Revenue




          30000




          20000
                                                                y = -5.6121x2 + 604x + 29752
                                                                         R² = 0.6872

          10000




             0
                  1-91   1-92   1-93   1-94      1-95    1-96        1-97     1-98     1-99    1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                                Quarters
                                              GM Revenue - Power Trend
          60000




          50000




          40000
Revenue




          30000




          20000

                                                                          y = 26532x0.1372
                                                                            R² = 0.6783

          10000




             0
                  1-91   1-92   1-93   1-94    1-95    1-96        1-97   1-98      1-99     1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                              Quarters
                                              GM Revenue - Exponential Trend
          60000




          50000




          40000
Revenue




          30000




          20000                                                              y = 32044e0.0088x
                                                                               R² = 0.6505



          10000




             0
                  1-91   1-92   1-93   1-94       1-95    1-96        1-97     1-98     1-99     1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                                 Quarters
                                        GM Revenue - 4-Period Moving Average
          60000




          50000




          40000
Revenue




          30000




          20000




          10000




             0
                  1-91   1-92   1-93   1-94    1-95    1-96        1-97   1-98   1-99   1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                              Quarters
                                        GM Revenue - 3-Period Moving Average
          60000




          50000




          40000
Revenue




          30000




          20000




          10000




             0
                  1-91   1-92   1-93   1-94    1-95    1-96        1-97   1-98   1-99   1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                              Quarters
                                        GM Revenue - 2-Period Moving Average
          60000




          50000




          40000
Revenue




          30000




          20000




          10000




             0
                  1-91   1-92   1-93   1-94    1-95    1-96        1-97   1-98   1-99   1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                              Quarters
         A      B         C        D        E        F         G        H          I
 1   Alpha      0.100                     GM_Rev   SmLevel   Forecast    Error abs(error)
 2                             1-91        29200   29200.0
                         =AVERAGE(I3:I47)
 3   MAE      4014.376         2-91        31300   29410.0   29200.0   2100.0     2100.0
                         =SQRT(AVERAGE(K3:K47))
 4   RMSE    4690.9738         3-91        28900   29359.0   29410.0    -510.0     510.0
                         =AVERAGE(J3:J47)
 5   MAPE     11.148%          4-91        33600   29783.1   29359.0   4241.0     4241.0
 6                             1-92        32000   30004.8   29783.1   2216.9     2216.9
                                                             =$B$1*E7+(1-$B$1)*F6
 7                             2-92        35200   30524.3   30004.8   5195.2     5195.2
 8                             3-92        29400   30411.9   30524.3  -1124.3     1124.3
                                                                      =F8
 9                             4-92        35800   30950.7   30411.9   5388.1     5388.1
10                             1-93        35000   31355.6   30950.7   4049.3     4049.3
                                                                                =E11-G11
11                             2-93        36658   31885.9   31355.6   5302.4     5302.4
12                             3-93        30138   31711.1   31885.9  -1747.9     1747.9
13                             4-93        37268   32266.8   31711.1   5556.9     5556.9
14                             1-94        37495   32789.6   32266.8   5228.2     5228.2
15                             2-94        40392   33549.8   32789.6   7602.4     7602.4
16                             3-94        34510   33645.8   33549.8     960.2     960.2
17                             4-94        42553   34536.6   33645.8   8907.2     8907.2
18                             1-95        43285   35411.4   34536.6   8748.4     8748.4
19                             2-95        42204   36090.7   35411.4   6792.6     6792.6
20                             3-95        35316   36013.2   36090.7    -774.7     774.7
21                             4-95        43935   36805.4   36013.2   7921.8     7921.8
22                             1-96        39240   37048.8   36805.4   2434.6     2434.6
23                             2-96        44780   37822.0   37048.8   7731.2     7731.2
24                             3-96        39078   37947.6   37822.0   1256.0     1256.0
25                             4-96        35183   37671.1   37947.6  -2764.6     2764.6
26                             1-97        42241   38128.1   37671.1   4569.9     4569.9
27                             2-97        45146   38829.9   38128.1   7017.9     7017.9
28                             3-97        41890   39135.9   38829.9   3060.1     3060.1
29                             4-97        43303   39552.6   39135.9   4167.1     4167.1
30                             1-98        40024   39599.7   39552.6     471.4     471.4
31                             2-98        37272   39367.0   39599.7  -2327.7     2327.7
32                             3-98        33525   38782.8   39367.0  -5842.0     5842.0
33                             4-98        44624   39366.9   38782.8   5841.2     5841.2
34                             1-99        42435   39673.7   39366.9   3068.1     3068.1
35                             2-99        45067   40213.0   39673.7   5393.3     5393.3
36                             3-99        42794   40471.1   40213.0   2581.0     2581.0
37                             4-99        46262   41050.2   40471.1   5790.9     5790.9
38                             1-00        46858   41631.0   41050.2   5807.8     5807.8
39                             2-00        48743   42342.2   41631.0   7112.0     7112.0
40                             3-00        42690   42377.0   42342.2     347.8     347.8
41                             4-00        46341   42773.4   42377.0   3964.0     3964.0
42                             1-01        42615   42757.5   42773.4    -158.4     158.4
43                             2-01        46220   43103.8   42757.5   3462.5     3462.5
44                             3-01        42475   43040.9   43103.8    -628.8     628.8
45                             4-01        45950   43331.8   43040.9   2909.1     2909.1
46                             1-02        46264   43625.0   43331.8   2932.2     2932.2
47                             2-02        48265   44089.0   43625.0   4640.0     4640.0
48                             3-02                39680.1   44089.0
49                             4-02                35712.1   44089.0
50                             1-03                32140.9   44089.0
51                             2-03                28926.8   44089.0
           J          K         L      M
     1 abs(%error)    error^2
     2
     3       7.2% 4410000.0
     4       1.7%   260100.0
     5      14.4% 17986081.0
     6       7.4% 4914645.6
     7      17.3% 26990206.8
     8       3.7% 1264075.3
     9      17.7% 29031838.1
    10      13.1% 16396895.8
=E11-G11
    11      16.9% 28115204.6
    12       5.5% 3055016.2
         =ABS(H13)
    13      17.5% 30879421.8
    14      16.2% 27334420.4
                    =ABS(H15/G15)
    15      23.2% 57796633.2
    16       2.9%   921924.0
                              =H17^2
    17      26.5% 79337354.0
    18      25.3% 76535143.8
    19      19.2% 46139319.2
    20       2.1%   600107.9
    21      22.0% 62754919.9
    22       6.6% 5927375.8
    23      20.9% 59770807.5
    24       3.3% 1577642.5
    25       7.3% 7642802.2
    26      12.1% 20883934.3
    27      18.4% 49250989.2
    28       7.9% 9364300.1
    29      10.6% 17364747.0
    30       1.2%   222211.0
    31       5.9% 5418404.3
    32      14.8% 34128636.2
    33      15.1% 34119912.5
    34       7.8% 9413254.3
    35      13.6% 29087603.4
    36       6.4% 6661371.0
    37      14.3% 33534139.1
    38      14.1% 33730310.5
    39      17.1% 50580574.5
    40       0.8%   120966.2
    41       9.4% 15713468.3
    42       0.4%    25084.4
    43       8.1% 11988612.6
    44       1.5%   395374.6
    45       6.8% 8462808.4
    46       6.8% 8597688.8
    47      10.6% 21529260.5
    48
    49
    50
    51
                                       GM Revenue - Simple Smoothing (alpha 0.10)
          60000




          50000




          40000
Revenue




          30000




          20000




          10000




             0
                  1-91   1-92   1-93   1-94   1-95   1-96    1-97      1-98   1-99   1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                            Quarters
         A      B        C          D     E        F         G         H          I
 1   Alpha      0.350                   GM_Rev   SmLevel   Forecast     Error abs(error)
 2                           1-91        29200   29200.0
 3   MAE      3275.989       2-91        31300   29935.9   29200.0     2100.0    2100.0
 4   RMSE    3653.2722       3-91        28900   29572.9   29935.9    -1035.9    1035.9
 5   MAPE      8.584%        4-91        33600   30984.1   29572.9     4027.1    4027.1
 6                           1-92        32000   31340.1   30984.1     1015.9    1015.9
 7                           2-92        35200   32692.7   31340.1     3859.9    3859.9
 8                           3-92        29400   31538.9   32692.7    -3292.7    3292.7
 9                           4-92        35800   33032.1   31538.9     4261.1    4261.1
10                           1-93        35000   33721.7   33032.1     1967.9    1967.9
11                           2-93        36658   34750.6   33721.7     2936.3    2936.3
12                           3-93        30138   33134.3   34750.6    -4612.6    4612.6
13                           4-93        37268   34582.8   33134.3     4133.7    4133.7
14                           1-94        37495   35603.3   34582.8     2912.2    2912.2
15                           2-94        40392   37281.4   35603.3     4788.7    4788.7
16                           3-94        34510   36310.2   37281.4    -2771.4    2771.4
17                           4-94        42553   38497.9   36310.2     6242.8    6242.8
18                           1-95        43285   40175.4   38497.9     4787.1    4787.1
19                           2-95        42204   40886.3   40175.4     2028.6    2028.6
20                           3-95        35316   38934.3   40886.3    -5570.3    5570.3
21                           4-95        43935   40686.7   38934.3     5000.7    5000.7
22                           1-96        39240   40179.7   40686.7    -1446.7    1446.7
23                           2-96        44780   41791.8   40179.7     4600.3    4600.3
24                           3-96        39078   40840.8   41791.8    -2713.8    2713.8
25                           4-96        35183   38858.2   40840.8    -5657.8    5657.8
26                           1-97        42241   40043.6   38858.2     3382.8    3382.8
27                           2-97        45146   41831.6   40043.6     5102.4    5102.4
28                           3-97        41890   41852.1   41831.6       58.4      58.4
29                           4-97        43303   42360.5   41852.1     1450.9    1450.9
30                           1-98        40024   41541.7   42360.5    -2336.5    2336.5
31                           2-98        37272   40045.5   41541.7    -4269.7    4269.7
32                           3-98        33525   37760.6   40045.5    -6520.5    6520.5
33                           4-98        44624   40165.7   37760.6     6863.4    6863.4
34                           1-99        42435   40960.9   40165.7     2269.3    2269.3
35                           2-99        45067   42399.8   40960.9     4106.1    4106.1
36                           3-99        42794   42537.9   42399.8      394.2     394.2
37                           4-99        46262   43842.9   42537.9     3724.1    3724.1
38                           1-00        46858   44899.5   43842.9     3015.1    3015.1
39                           2-00        48743   46246.4   44899.5     3843.5    3843.5
40                           3-00        42690   45000.1   46246.4    -3556.4    3556.4
41                           4-00        46341   45470.0   45000.1     1340.9    1340.9
42                           1-01        42615   44469.5   45470.0    -2855.0    2855.0
43                           2-01        46220   45082.9   44469.5     1750.5    1750.5
44                           3-01        42475   44169.1   45082.9    -2607.9    2607.9
45                           4-01        45950   44793.1   44169.1     1780.9    1780.9
46                           1-02        46264   45308.6   44793.1     1470.9    1470.9
47                           2-02        48265   46344.6   45308.6     2956.4    2956.4
48                           3-02                30104.3   46344.6
49                           4-02                19555.0   46344.6
50                           1-03                12702.4   46344.6
     A   B   C          D   E    F         G       H   I
51               2-03           8251.2   46344.6
         J           K
 1 abs(%error)       error^2
 2
 3        7.2%    4410000.0
 4        3.5%    1073072.4
 5      13.6%    16217616.5
 6        3.3%    1032075.0
 7      12.3%    14898909.3
 8      10.1%    10841859.2
 9      13.5%    18157357.9
10        6.0%    3872765.0
11        8.7%    8621982.5
12      13.3%    21276434.3
13      12.5%    17087842.8
14        8.4%    8480779.8
15      13.5%    22931441.8
16        7.4%    7680620.3
17      17.2%    38972198.5
18      12.4%    22916801.9
19        5.0%    4115273.5
20      13.6%    31027828.3
21      12.8%    25006954.5
22        3.6%    2092860.7
23      11.4%    21162553.6
24        6.5%    7364568.2
25      13.9%    32010702.5
26        8.7%   11443561.4
27      12.7%    26034533.1
28        0.1%       3410.0
29        3.5%    2105204.5
30        5.5%    5459280.8
31      10.3%    18230672.8
32      16.3%    42517137.8
33      18.2%    47106727.4
34        5.6%    5149797.6
35      10.0%    16859989.5
36        0.9%     155405.8
37        8.8%   13868716.2
38        6.9%    9090617.9
39        8.6%   14772581.0
40        7.7%   12647626.9
41        3.0%    1797967.5
42        6.3%    8150999.9
43        3.9%    3064130.1
44        5.8%    6801355.8
45        4.0%    3171769.6
46        3.3%    2163424.8
47        6.5%    8740497.4
48
49
50
                                       GM Revenue - Simple Smoothing (alpha 0.35)
          60000




          50000




          40000
Revenue




          30000




          20000




          10000




             0
                  1-91   1-92   1-93   1-94   1-95   1-96    1-97      1-98   1-99   1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                            Quarters
             A               B           C          D   E           F            G
 1   Smoothing constant(s)                              GM_Rev     SmLevel      SmTrend
 2   Level (alpha)               0.266       1-91         29200   29200.000        0.000
 3   Trend (beta)                0.048       2-91         31300   29757.957       26.659
                                                                              =$B$2*E4+(1-$B$2)*(F3+
 4                                           3-91         28900   29549.579       15.429
 5   MAE                     3094.683        4-91         33600   30637.081       66.652
 6   RMSE                    3568.391        1-92         32000   31048.143       83.108
 7   MAPE                      8.01%         2-92         35200   32212.293      134.760
 8                                           3-92         29400   31564.039       97.348
 9                                           4-92         35800   32760.991      149.887
10                                           1-93         35000   33465.944      176.407
11                                           2-93         36658   34443.591      214.690
12                                           3-93         30138   33457.270      157.306
13                                           4-93         37268   34585.269      203.686
14                                           1-94         37495   35507.934      238.038
15                                           2-94         40392   36980.394      297.019
16                                           3-94         34510   36542.128      261.887
17                                           4-94         42553   38331.485      334.869
18                                           1-95         43285   39893.500      393.502
19                                           2-95         42204   40796.336      417.838
20                                           3-95         35316   39647.065      342.962
21                                           4-95         43935   41038.182      393.042
22                                           1-96         39240   40849.029      365.225
23                                           2-96         44780   42161.651      410.491
24                                           3-96         39078   41643.770      366.134
25                                           4-96         35183   40196.038      279.468
26                                           1-97         42241   40944.587      301.881
27                                           2-97         45146   42282.549      351.384
28                                           3-97         41890   42436.275      341.940
29                                           4-97         43303   42917.647      348.602
30                                           1-98         40024   42404.804      307.443
31                                           2-98         37272   41266.806      238.380
32                                           3-98         33525   39384.900      137.073
33                                           4-98         44624   40877.550      201.842
34                                           1-99         42435   41439.569      219.052
35                                           2-99         45067   42564.206      262.320
36                                           3-99         42794   42817.884      261.907
37                                           4-99         46262   43925.285      302.305
38                                           1-00         46858   44926.473      335.697
39                                           2-00         48743   46187.005      379.885
40                                           3-00         42690   45536.825      330.669
41                                           4-00         46341   45993.302      336.680
42                                           1-01         42615   45342.934      289.519
43                                           2-01         46220   45788.561      296.978
44                                           3-01         42475   45126.241      251.143
45                                           4-01         45950   45529.525      258.412
46                                           1-02         46264   45914.424      264.456
47                                           2-02         48265   46733.149      290.939
48                                           3-02
49                                           4-02
50                                           1-03
     A   B   C          D   E   F   G
51               2-03
                 H             I            J          K          L          M
        1       Forecast          Error abs(error)abs(%error)     error^2
        2
        3     29200.000          2100.0    2100.0       7.2%   4410000.0
=$B$2*E4+(1-$B$2)*(F3+G3)
        4     29784.616          -884.6     884.6       3.0%    782545.7
        5     29565.008          4035.0    4035.0      13.6% 16281159.9
             =$B$3*(F6-F5)+(1-$B$3)*G5
        6     30703.733          1296.3    1296.3       4.2%   1680308.2
        7     31131.251          4068.7    4068.7      13.1% 16554716.2
                           =F7+G7
        8     32347.053        -2947.1     2947.1       9.1%   8685120.1
        9     31661.387          4138.6    4138.6      13.1% 17128119.6
                                          =E10-H10
       10     32910.877          2089.1    2089.1       6.3%   4364433.2
       11     33642.352          3015.6    3015.6       9.0%   9094133.3
                                                     =ABS(I12)
       12     34658.282        -4520.3     4520.3      13.0% 20432945.1
       13     33614.577          3653.4    3653.4      10.9% 13347499.7
                                                               =ABS(I14/H14)
       14     34788.955          2706.0    2706.0       7.8%   7322680.1
       15     35745.973          4646.0    4646.0      13.0% 21585567.4
                                                                           =I16^2
       16     37277.413        -2767.4     2767.4       7.4%   7658572.1
       17     36804.015          5749.0    5749.0      15.6% 33050827.6
       18     38666.354          4618.6    4618.6      11.9% 21331889.3
       19     40287.002          1917.0    1917.0       4.8%   3674882.3
       20     41214.174        -5898.2     5898.2      14.3% 34788456.7
       21     39990.027          3945.0    3945.0       9.9% 15562811.6
       22     41431.224        -2191.2     2191.2       5.3%   4801463.9
       23     41214.255          3565.7    3565.7       8.7% 12714540.8
       24     42572.143        -3494.1     3494.1       8.2% 12209032.5
       25     42009.904        -6826.9     6826.9      16.3% 46606624.0
       26     40475.506          1765.5    1765.5       4.4%   3116969.3
       27     41246.467          3899.5    3899.5       9.5% 15206353.9
       28     42633.934          -743.9     743.9       1.7%    553437.2
       29     42778.215           524.8     524.8       1.2%    275399.1
       30     43266.250        -3242.2     3242.2       7.5% 10512182.2
       31     42712.246        -5440.2     5440.2      12.7% 29596280.9
       32     41505.186        -7980.2     7980.2      19.2% 63683373.3
       33     39521.973          5102.0    5102.0      12.9% 26030678.2
       34     41079.393          1355.6    1355.6       3.3%   1837671.1
       35     41658.621          3408.4    3408.4       8.2% 11617049.1
       36     42826.526           -32.5       32.5      0.1%      1058.0
       37     43079.791          3182.2    3182.2       7.4% 10126451.4
       38     44227.589          2630.4    2630.4       5.9%   6919060.5
       39     45262.170          3480.8    3480.8       7.7% 12116175.4
       40     46566.891        -3876.9     3876.9       8.3% 15030281.9
       41     45867.494           473.5     473.5       1.0%    224208.1
       42     46329.982        -3715.0     3715.0       8.0% 13801089.1
       43     45632.453           587.5     587.5       1.3%    345211.2
       44     46085.539        -3610.5     3610.5       7.8% 13035991.4
       45     45377.384           572.6     572.6       1.3%    327889.0
       46     45787.937           476.1     476.1       1.0%    226636.0
       47     46178.880          2086.1    2086.1       4.5%   4351897.0
       48     47024.088
       49     46733.149
       50     46733.149
       H         I   J   K   L   M
51   46733.149
                                       GM Revenue - Holts Method (Smoothing with Trend)
          60000




          50000




          40000
Revenue




          30000




          20000




          10000




             0
                  1-91   1-92   1-93     1-94    1-95   1-96    1-97      1-98   1-99     1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                               Quarters
             A                 B           C          D   E           F          G
 1   Smoothing constant(s)                                GM_Rev     SmLevel    SmTrend
 2   Level (alpha)                 0.312       1-91         29200   29200.000      0.000
 3   Trend (beta)                  0.037       2-91         31300   29855.671     24.178
 4   Seasonality (gamma)           0.202       3-91         28900   29573.917     12.897
 5                                             4-91         33600   30839.828     59.102
 6   MAE                        2670.440       1-92         32000   31242.711     71.779
 7   RMSE                       3233.995       2-92         35200   32527.642    116.515
 8   MAPE                    262762.99%        3-92         29400   31631.252     79.164
 9                                             4-92         35800   32987.284    126.249
10                                             1-93         35000   33649.376    146.008
11                                             2-93         36658   34502.621    172.088
12                                             3-93         30138   33394.029    124.862
13                                             4-93         37268   34492.750    160.774
14                                             1-94         37495   35401.921    188.371
15                                             2-94         40392   36772.011    231.948
16                                             3-94         34510   36570.220    215.954
17                                             4-94         42553   38200.324    268.101
18                                             1-95         43285   39687.818    313.067
19                                             2-95         42204   40176.215    319.532
20                                             3-95         35316   39291.770    275.135
21                                             4-95         43935   40316.302    302.769
22                                             1-96         39240   39769.115    271.427
23                                             2-96         44780   40950.496    304.982
24                                             3-96         39078   41207.593    303.216
25                                             4-96         35183   38957.144    209.048
26                                             1-97         42241   39796.864    232.305
27                                             2-97         45146   40920.123    265.159
28                                             3-97         41890   42089.871    298.516
29                                             4-97         43303   42346.775    296.982
30                                             1-98         40024   41428.555    252.171
31                                             2-98         37272   39614.923    175.993
32                                             3-98         33525   38278.230    120.212
33                                             4-98         44624   40010.994    179.676
34                                             1-99         42435   40639.589    196.230
35                                             2-99         45067   41637.379    225.788
36                                             3-99         42794   42969.029    266.567
37                                             4-99         46262   43589.116    279.603
38                                             1-00         46858   44453.898    301.182
39                                             2-00         48743   45314.030    321.794
40                                             3-00         42690   45369.458    311.971
41                                             4-00         46341   45245.141    295.883
42                                             1-01         42615   44235.310    247.734
43                                             2-01         46220   44299.605    240.970
44                                             3-01         42475   44582.132    242.502
45                                             4-01         45950   44598.179    234.151
46                                             1-02         46264   45039.888    241.805
47                                             2-02         48265   45481.659    249.179
48                                             3-02
49                                             4-02
50                                             1-03
     A   B   C          D   E   F   G
51               2-03
       H           I         J             K          L            M
 1   SmSeason     Forecast       Error abs(error) abs(%error)      error^2
 2       1.000
 3       1.000
 4       1.000
 5       1.000
 6       1.005   30898.931    1101.1      1101.1   109571.3%     1212353.7
 7       1.017   31314.491    3885.5      3885.5   382218.2%    15097181.1
 8       0.986   32644.157   -3244.2      3244.2   329097.3%    10524553.4
 9       1.017   31710.415    4089.6      4089.6   402045.1%    16724701.7
10       1.012   33275.398    1724.6      1724.6   170415.7%     2974252.4
11       1.026   34355.316    2302.7      2302.7   224471.3%     5302351.4
12       0.969   34181.443   -4043.4      4043.4   417288.6%    16349433.8
13       1.030   34095.266    3172.7      3172.7   308046.3%    10066242.9
14       1.022   35069.261    2425.7      2425.7   237468.1%     5884208.4
15       1.040   36509.418    3882.6      3882.6   373156.6%    15074445.5
16       0.964   35856.098   -1346.1      1346.1   139654.9%     1811980.8
17       1.047   37888.055    4664.9      4664.9   445599.6%    21761716.1
18       1.035   39295.528    3989.5      3989.5   385291.2%    15915889.1
19       1.042   41619.723     584.3       584.3    56046.4%      341379.6
20       0.951   39032.823   -3716.8      3716.8   390934.3%    13814776.8
21       1.056   41422.264    2512.7      2512.7   238053.0%     6313844.5
22       1.026   42058.746   -2818.7      2818.7   274835.4%     7945330.1
23       1.053   41741.752    3038.2      3038.2   288593.4%     9230951.7
24       0.950   39223.813    -145.8       145.8    15344.5%       21261.5
25       1.025   43816.169   -8633.2      8633.2   842425.5%    74531600.5
26       1.033   40169.334    2071.7      2071.7   200580.9%     4291798.2
27       1.063   42141.825    3004.2      3004.2   282623.3%     9025064.9
28       0.959   39136.861    2753.1      2753.1   286983.9%     7579776.3
29       1.024   43439.579    -136.6       136.6    13333.2%       18653.9
30       1.019   44043.867   -4019.9      4019.9   394346.5%    16159332.8
31       1.038   44304.978   -7033.0      7033.0   677331.2%    49462774.6
32       0.942   38172.854   -4647.9      4647.9   493144.0%    21602544.3
33       1.043   39333.510    5290.5      5290.5   507387.7%    27989283.4
34       1.024   40969.335    1465.7      1465.7   143078.8%     2148175.1
35       1.047   42401.323    2665.7      2665.7   254548.8%     7105833.0
36       0.953   39455.796    3338.2      3338.2   350184.6%    11143606.7
37       1.046   45081.397    1180.6      1180.6   112820.0%     1393823.4
38       1.030   44938.088    1919.9      1919.9   186332.9%     3686062.5
39       1.053   46868.256    1874.7      1874.7   178046.0%     3514666.4
40       0.951   43503.255    -813.3       813.3    85535.3%      661384.0
41       1.042   47803.260   -1462.3      1462.3   140336.6%     2138202.9
42       1.017   46923.965   -4309.0      4309.0   423753.7%    18567178.9
43       1.051   46838.637    -618.6       618.6    58860.7%      382711.7
44       0.951   42348.448     126.6       126.6    13304.8%       16015.4
45       1.040   46705.734    -755.7       755.7    72693.7%      571134.6
46       1.019   45588.022     676.0       676.0    66341.4%      456945.8
47       1.053   47591.870     673.1       673.1    63920.7%      453103.8
48
49
50
                                GM Revenue - Winters Method (Smoothing with Trend and Seasonality)
          60000




          50000




          40000
Revenue




          30000




          20000




          10000




             0
                  1-91   1-92       1-93   1-94    1-95   1-96    1-97      1-98   1-99   1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                                 Quarters
                                                GM Revenue - Regression
          60000




          50000




          40000
Revenue




          30000




          20000




          10000




             0
                  1-91   1-92   1-93   1-94   1-95   1-96    1-97      1-98   1-99   1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                            Quarters
             A               B           C          D    E         F           G
 1   Smoothing constant(s)                              GM_EPS     SmLevel    SmTrend
 2   Level (alpha)               0.364       1-91          -1.28     -1.280      0.000
 3   Trend (beta)                0.000       2-91          -1.44     -1.338      0.000
 4   Seasonality (gamma)         0.000       3-91          -1.88     -1.535      0.000
 5                                           4-91          -4.25     -2.523      0.000
 6   MAE                        1.049        1-92          -0.53     -1.798      0.000
 7   RMSE                       1.260        2-92          -1.18     -1.573      0.000
 8   MAPE                    104.90%         3-92          -1.86     -1.677      0.000
 9                                           4-92          -1.25     -1.522      0.000
10                                           1-93           0.42     -0.816      0.000
11                                           2-93           0.92     -0.184      0.000
12                                           3-93          -0.49     -0.296      0.000
13                                           4-93           1.28      0.277      0.000
14                                           1-94           1.86      0.853      0.000
15                                           2-94           2.23      1.354      0.000
16                                           3-94            0.4      1.007      0.000
17                                           4-94           1.74      1.274      0.000
18                                           1-95           2.51      1.723      0.000
19                                           2-95           2.39      1.966      0.000
20                                           3-95           0.42      1.404      0.000
21                                           4-95           1.98      1.613      0.000
22                                           1-96           0.94      1.368      0.000
23                                           2-96           2.63      1.827      0.000
24                                           3-96           1.57      1.734      0.000
25                                           4-96           0.92      1.438      0.000
26                                           1-97           2.30      1.751      0.000
27                                           2-97           2.68      2.089      0.000
28                                           3-97           1.35      1.820      0.000
29                                           4-97           2.37      2.020      0.000
30                                           1-98           2.31      2.126      0.000
31                                           2-98           0.54      1.549      0.000
32                                           3-98          -1.28      0.520      0.000
33                                           4-98           2.69      1.309      0.000
34                                           1-99           3.10      1.961      0.000
35                                           2-99           2.99      2.335      0.000
36                                           3-99           1.35      1.977      0.000
37                                           4-99           1.92      1.956      0.000
38                                           1-00           2.88      2.292      0.000
39                                           2-00           2.99      2.546      0.000
40                                           3-00           1.57      2.191      0.000
41                                           4-00          -0.64      1.161      0.000
42                                           1-01           0.54      0.935      0.000
43                                           2-01           1.05      0.977      0.000
44                                           3-01          -0.41      0.473      0.000
45                                           4-01            0.6      0.519      0.000
46                                           1-02           0.58      0.541      0.000
47                                           2-02           2.48      1.246      0.000
48                                           3-02
49                                           4-02
50                                           1-03
     A   B   C          D   E   F   G
51               2-03
       H          I         J             K          L         M
 1   SmSeason    Forecast       Error abs(error) abs(%error)   error^2
 2       1.000
 3       1.000
 4       1.000
 5       1.000
 6       1.000     -2.523         2.0       2.0     199.3%         4.0
 7       1.000     -1.798         0.6       0.6      61.8%         0.4
 8       1.000     -1.573        -0.3       0.3      28.7%         0.1
 9       1.000     -1.677         0.4       0.4      42.7%         0.2
10       1.000     -1.522         1.9       1.9     194.2%         3.8
11       1.000     -0.816         1.7       1.7     173.6%         3.0
12       1.000     -0.184        -0.3       0.3      30.6%         0.1
13       1.000     -0.296         1.6       1.6     157.6%         2.5
14       1.000      0.277         1.6       1.6     158.3%         2.5
15       1.000      0.853         1.4       1.4     137.7%         1.9
16       1.000      1.354        -1.0       1.0      95.4%         0.9
17       1.000      1.007         0.7       0.7      73.3%         0.5
18       1.000      1.274         1.2       1.2     123.6%         1.5
19       1.000      1.723         0.7       0.7      66.7%         0.4
20       1.000      1.966        -1.5       1.5     154.6%         2.4
21       1.000      1.404         0.6       0.6      57.6%         0.3
22       1.000      1.613        -0.7       0.7      67.3%         0.5
23       1.000      1.368         1.3       1.3     126.2%         1.6
24       1.000      1.827        -0.3       0.3      25.7%         0.1
25       1.000      1.734        -0.8       0.8      81.4%         0.7
26       1.000      1.438         0.9       0.9      86.2%         0.7
27       1.000      1.751         0.9       0.9      92.9%         0.9
28       1.000      2.089        -0.7       0.7      73.9%         0.5
29       1.000      1.820         0.5       0.5      55.0%         0.3
30       1.000      2.020         0.3       0.3      29.0%         0.1
31       1.000      2.126        -1.6       1.6     158.6%         2.5
32       1.000      1.549        -2.8       2.8     282.9%         8.0
33       1.000      0.520         2.2       2.2     217.0%         4.7
34       1.000      1.309         1.8       1.8     179.1%         3.2
35       1.000      1.961         1.0       1.0     102.9%         1.1
36       1.000      2.335        -1.0       1.0      98.5%         1.0
37       1.000      1.977        -0.1       0.1       5.7%         0.0
38       1.000      1.956         0.9       0.9      92.4%         0.9
39       1.000      2.292         0.7       0.7      69.8%         0.5
40       1.000      2.546        -1.0       1.0      97.6%         1.0
41       1.000      2.191        -2.8       2.8     283.1%         8.0
42       1.000      1.161        -0.6       0.6      62.1%         0.4
43       1.000      0.935         0.1       0.1      11.5%         0.0
44       1.000      0.977        -1.4       1.4     138.7%         1.9
45       1.000      0.473         0.1       0.1      12.7%         0.0
46       1.000      0.519         0.1       0.1       6.1%         0.0
47       1.000      0.541         1.9       1.9     193.9%         3.8
48                  1.246
49                  1.246
50                  1.246
     H   I           J   K   L   M
51           1.246
                             GM EPS - Winters Method (Smoothing with Trend and Seasonality)
          4



          3



          2



          1



          0
Revenue




          -1



          -2



          -3



          -4



          -5
               1-91   1-92   1-93   1-94    1-95    1-96    1-97      1-98   1-99   1-00      1-01   1-02

                                                           Quarters
                                                  GM EPS - Regression
          4



          3



          2



          1



          0
Revenue




          -1



          -2



          -3



          -4



          -5
               1-91   1-92   1-93   1-94   1-95     1-96    1-97      1-98   1-99   1-00   1-01   1-02

                                                           Quarters
       Nike_Rev Nike_EPS        Filed
1-92         947     0.75
2-92         734      0.4
3-92         867     0.54
4-92         848     0.46     May-92
1-93        1098      0.8
2-93         876     0.49
3-93         972     0.58
4-93       983.3      0.5     May-93
1-94        1108     0.74
2-94       805.8     0.35
3-94       871.8     0.43
4-94        1004     0.46     May-94
1-95        1170     0.71
2-95        1054     0.58
3-95        1125     0.65
4-95        1412     0.78      May-95
1-96        1700     1.25      Aug-95
2-96        1357     0.34      Nov-95
3-96        1582     0.45      Feb-96
4-96        1832    -0.16      May-96
1-97        2282     0.76      Aug-96
2-97        2107      0.6      Nov-96
3-97        2424      0.8      Feb-97
4-97        2374     0.52      May-97
1-98        2766     0.85      Aug-97
2-98        2255     0.48      Nov-97
3-98        2224     0.25    2/1/1998
4-98        2308    -0.23      May-98
1-99        2504     0.56    8/1/1998
2-99        1913     0.24   11/1/1998
3-99        2176     0.44   2/28/1999
4-99        2184     0.33    5/1/1999
1-00        2501      0.7    8/1/1999
2-00        2060     0.38   ########
3-00        2162     0.52   2/28/2000
4-00        2272     0.47    5/1/2000
1-01        2637     0.77   8/31/2000
2-01        2199     0.44   ########
3-01        2170     0.35   2/28/2001
4-01        2483      0.6    5/1/2001
1-02        2614     0.73   8/31/2001
2-02        2337     0.48   ########
3-02        2260     0.46   2/28/2002
4-02        2682     0.77    5/2/2002
       Nike_Rev    Nike_EPS    Trend   1Q   2Q
1-92         947        0.75       1    1    0
2-92         734         0.4       2    0    1
3-92         867        0.54       3    0    0
4-92         848        0.46       4    0    0
1-93        1098         0.8       5    1    0
2-93         876        0.49       6    0    1
3-93         972        0.58       7    0    0
4-93       983.3         0.5       8    0    0
1-94        1108        0.74       9    1    0
2-94       805.8        0.35      10    0    1
3-94       871.8        0.43      11    0    0
4-94        1004        0.46      12    0    0
1-95        1170        0.71      13    1    0
2-95        1054        0.58      14    0    1
3-95        1125        0.65      15    0    0
4-95        1412        0.78      16    0    0
1-96        1700        1.25      17    1    0
2-96        1357        0.34      18    0    1
3-96        1582        0.45      19    0    0
4-96        1832       -0.16      20    0    0
1-97        2282        0.76      21    1    0
2-97        2107         0.6      22    0    1
3-97        2424         0.8      23    0    0
4-97        2374        0.52      24    0    0
1-98        2766        0.85      25    1    0
2-98        2255        0.48      26    0    1
3-98        2224        0.25      27    0    0
4-98        2308       -0.23      28    0    0
1-99        2504        0.56      29    1    0
2-99        1913        0.24      30    0    1
3-99        2176        0.44      31    0    0
4-99        2184        0.33      32    0    0
1-00        2501         0.7      33    1    0
2-00        2060        0.38      34    0    1
3-00        2162        0.52      35    0    0
4-00        2272        0.47      36    0    0
1-01        2637        0.77      37    1    0
2-01        2199        0.44      38    0    1
3-01        2170        0.35      39    0    0
4-01        2483         0.6      40    0    0
1-02        2614        0.73      41    1    0
2-02        2337        0.48      42    0    1
3-02        2260        0.46      43    0    0
4-02        2682        0.77      44    0    0
                                  45    1    0
                                  46    0    1
                                  47    0    0
                                  48    0    0
                                  49    1    0
                                  50    0    1
                                  51    0    0
                                                           52              0             0
                                                           53              1             0
                                                           54              0             1
                                                           55              0             0
                                                           56              0             0
                                                           57              1             0
                                                           58              0             1
                                                           59              0             0
                                                           60              0             0


Revenue Model

        Regression Statistics
Multiple R            0.915581128
R Square              0.838288801
Adjusted R Square     0.821703037
Standard Error        279.4457843
Observations                   44

ANOVA
                         df             SS            MS              F      Significance F
Regression                      4    15787497.66   3946874.415   50.54267032    6.4513E-15
Residual                       39    3045507.909   78089.94639
Total                          43    18833005.57

                     Coefficients Standard Error    t Stat         P-value
Intercept                    742.2  116.1389834 6.390619052      1.48607E-07
Trend                46.28068182    3.330513764 13.89595873      1.08802E-16
1Q                   224.7238636    119.5742571 1.879366588      0.067681531
2Q                  -151.4840909     119.342119 -1.269326305     0.211847476
3Q                  -94.49204545    119.2026191 -0.792701085     0.432747948




EPS Model

        Regression Statistics
Multiple R            0.607919518
R Square                0.36956614
Adjusted R Square     0.304906257
Standard Error        0.207993733
Observations                    44

ANOVA
                         df             SS             MS             F      Significance F
Regression                      4    0.989048864   0.247262216   5.715539886   0.001016555
Residual                       39    1.687194318   0.043261393
Total                          43    2.676243182
             Coefficients Standard Error    t Stat       P-value
Intercept    0.435681818    0.086443174 5.040095086    1.10348E-05
Trend       -0.001107955    0.002478928 -0.446949056   0.657384165
1Q           0.371221591    0.089000076 4.171025548    0.000163668
2Q           0.023238636    0.088827294 0.261615945    0.794994313
3Q           0.087073864    0.088723463 0.981407407    0.332441145
3Q   Rev Forecast EPS Forecast
 0       1013.20          0.81
 0        683.28          0.46
 1        786.55          0.52
 0        927.32          0.43
 0       1198.33          0.80
 0        868.40          0.45
 1        971.67          0.52
 0       1112.45          0.43
 0       1383.45          0.80
 0       1053.52          0.45
 1       1156.80          0.51
 0       1297.57          0.42
 0       1568.57          0.79
 0       1238.65          0.44
 1       1341.92          0.51
 0       1482.69          0.42
 0       1753.70          0.79
 0       1423.77          0.44
 1       1527.04          0.50
 0       1667.81          0.41
 0       1938.82          0.78
 0       1608.89          0.43
 1       1712.16          0.50
 0       1852.94          0.41
 0       2123.94          0.78
 0       1794.01          0.43
 1       1897.29          0.49
 0       2038.06          0.40
 0       2309.06          0.77
 0       1979.14          0.43
 1       2082.41          0.49
 0       2223.18          0.40
 0       2494.19          0.77
 0       2164.26          0.42
 1       2267.53          0.48
 0       2408.30          0.40
 0       2679.31          0.77
 0       2349.38          0.42
 1       2452.65          0.48
 0       2593.43          0.39
 0       2864.43          0.76
 0       2534.50          0.41
 1       2637.78          0.48
 0       2778.55          0.39
 0       3049.55          0.76
 0       2719.63          0.41
 1       2822.90          0.47
 0       2963.67          0.38
 0
 0
 1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
             A                B           C          D    E           F          G
 1   Smoothing constant(s)                               Nike_Rev    SmLevel    SmTrend
 2   Level (alpha)                0.799       1-92             947    947.000       0.000
 3   Trend (beta)                 0.608       2-92             734    776.721   -103.505
 4   Seasonality (gamma)          1.000       3-92             867    828.133      -9.338
 5                                            4-92             848    842.142       4.854
 6   MAE                        154.559       1-93            1098   1047.657    126.827
 7   RMSE                       191.935       2-93             876    935.866    -18.218
 8   MAPE                    15536.55%        3-93             972    961.099       8.193
 9                                            4-93           983.3    980.490     15.000
10                                            1-94            1108   1044.822     44.987
11                                            2-94           805.8    906.787    -66.264
12                                            3-94           871.8    857.710    -55.817
13                                            4-94            1004    961.171     41.001
14                                            1-95            1170   1083.006     90.137
15                                            2-95            1054   1183.495     96.430
16                                            3-95            1125   1141.538     12.310
17                                            4-95            1412   1312.070    108.486
18                                            1-96            1700   1542.903    182.856
19                                            2-96            1357   1564.244     84.678
20                                            3-96            1582   1614.014     63.459
21                                            4-96            1832   1697.357     75.545
22                                            1-97            2282   2011.307    220.462
23                                            2-97            2107   2389.271    316.200
24                                            3-97            2424   2519.668    203.259
25                                            4-97            2374   2304.501    -51.085
26                                            1-98            2766   2400.894     38.561
27                                            2-98            2255   2533.502     95.728
28                                            3-98            2224   2375.447    -58.536
29                                            4-98            2308   2255.772    -95.700
30                                            1-99            2504   2170.789    -89.185
31                                            2-99            1913   2135.693    -56.306
32                                            3-99            2176   2275.081     62.647
33                                            4-99            2184   2175.323    -36.072
34                                            1-00            2501   2162.384    -22.010
35                                            2-00            2060   2267.829     55.464
36                                            3-00            2162   2273.049     24.923
37                                            4-00            2272   2269.993       7.916
38                                            1-01            2637   2279.557       8.918
39                                            2-01            2199   2394.302     73.245
40                                            3-01            2170   2318.783    -17.182
41                                            4-01            2483   2444.864     69.901
42                                            1-02            2614   2310.838    -54.057
43                                            2-02            2337   2486.839     85.785
44                                            3-02            2260   2446.577       9.167
45                                            4-02            2682   2603.690     99.096
46                                            1-03
47                                            2-03
48                                            3-03
49                                            4-03
       H          I         J              K          L          M
 1   SmSeason    Forecast        Error abs(error) abs(%error)    error^2
 2       1.000
 3       1.000
 4       1.000
 5       1.000
 6       1.048    846.997        251.0     251.0   23949.5%      63002.7
 7       0.936   1174.484       -298.5     298.5   31888.2%      89092.4
 8       1.011    917.648         54.4      54.4    5374.3%       2954.2
 9       1.003    969.292         14.0      14.0    1396.8%        196.2
10       1.060   1043.328         64.7      64.7    6098.5%       4182.5
11       0.889   1020.094       -214.3     214.3   24115.1%      45922.1
12       1.016    850.056         21.7      21.7    2139.3%        472.8
13       1.045    804.191        199.8     199.8   19128.5%      39923.5
14       1.080   1062.771        107.2     107.2    9925.6%      11498.1
15       0.891   1042.493         11.5      11.5    1292.1%        132.4
16       0.986   1300.950       -176.0     176.0   17853.7%      30958.5
17       1.076   1205.263        206.7     206.7   19210.6%      42740.3
18       1.102   1534.664        165.3     165.3   15005.7%      27335.9
19       0.868   1536.931       -179.9     179.9   20741.0%      32375.0
20       0.980   1625.034        -43.0      43.0    4390.4%       1851.9
21       1.079   1805.233         26.8      26.8    2480.0%        716.5
22       1.135   1953.417        328.6     328.6   28960.6%     107966.5
23       0.882   1936.086        170.9     170.9   19381.1%      29211.7
24       0.962   2651.808       -227.8     227.8   23679.9%      51896.5
25       1.030   2938.924       -564.9     564.9   54838.6%     319139.5
26       1.152   2556.693        209.3     209.3   18167.9%      43809.5
27       0.890   2151.256        103.7     103.7   11655.7%      10762.9
28       0.936   2529.402       -305.4     305.4   32619.9%      93270.6
29       1.023   2386.784        -78.8      78.8    7700.1%       6206.9
30       1.153   2488.556         15.4      15.4    1338.9%        238.5
31       0.896   1852.777         60.2      60.2    6723.3%       3626.8
32       0.956   1946.816        229.2     229.2   23962.0%      52525.5
33       1.004   2391.854       -207.9     207.9   20702.8%      43203.2
34       1.157   2467.622         33.4      33.4    2885.9%       1114.1
35       0.908   1917.193        142.8     142.8   15721.5%      20393.9
36       0.951   2222.113        -60.1      60.1    6320.0%       3613.5
37       1.001   2307.138        -35.1      35.1    3510.7%       1234.6
38       1.157   2634.615          2.4       2.4     206.2%          5.7
39       0.918   2078.754        120.2     120.2   13092.5%      14459.0
40       0.936   2346.996       -177.0     177.0   18913.1%      31327.6
41       1.016   2303.636        179.4     179.4   17661.0%      32171.6
42       1.131   2909.089       -295.1     295.1   26086.6%      87077.5
43       0.940   2072.697        264.3     264.3   28124.9%      69856.3
44       0.924   2407.554       -147.6     147.6   15973.5%      21772.2
45       1.030   2494.050        187.9     187.9   18246.2%      35325.2
46
47
48
49
                                               Nike Revenue (Winters)
          3500




          3000




          2500




          2000
Revenue




          1500




          1000




           500




            0
                 1-92   1-93   1-94   1-95   1-96    1-97      1-98     1-99   1-00   1-01   1-02   1-03

                                                            Quarters
                                             Nike Revenue (Regression)
          3500




          3000




          2500




          2000
Revenue




          1500




          1000




           500




            0
                 1-92   1-93   1-94   1-95   1-96   1-97      1-98    1-99   1-00   1-01   1-02   1-03

                                                           Quarters
             A               B             C          D     E         F           G
 1   Smoothing constant(s)                                Nike_EPS    SmLevel    SmTrend
 2   Level (alpha)                0.571        1-92            0.75      0.750      0.000
 3   Trend (beta)                 0.000        2-92             0.4      0.550      0.000
 4   Seasonality (gamma)          0.211        3-92            0.54      0.544      0.000
 5                                             4-92            0.46      0.496      0.000
 6   MAE                           0.201       1-93             0.8      0.670      0.000
 7   RMSE                          0.269       2-93            0.49      0.567      0.000
 8   MAPE                        20.48%        3-93            0.58      0.574      0.000
 9                                             4-93             0.5      0.532      0.000
10                                             1-94            0.74      0.634      0.000
11                                             2-94            0.35      0.478      0.000
12                                             3-94            0.43      0.450      0.000
13                                             4-94            0.46      0.459      0.000
14                                             1-95            0.71      0.577      0.000
15                                             2-95            0.58      0.607      0.000
16                                             3-95            0.65      0.634      0.000
17                                             4-95            0.78      0.722      0.000
18                                             1-96            1.25      0.958      0.000
19                                             2-96            0.34      0.620      0.000
20                                             3-96            0.45      0.523      0.000
21                                             4-96           -0.16      0.134      0.000
22                                             1-97            0.76      0.437      0.000
23                                             2-97             0.6      0.591      0.000
24                                             3-97             0.8      0.725      0.000
25                                             4-97            0.52      0.857      0.000
26                                             1-98            0.85      0.750      0.000
27                                             2-98            0.48      0.632      0.000
28                                             3-98            0.25      0.414      0.000
29                                             4-98           -0.23     -0.059      0.000
30                                             1-99            0.56      0.233      0.000
31                                             2-99            0.24      0.260      0.000
32                                             3-99            0.44      0.386      0.000
33                                             4-99            0.33      0.314      0.000
34                                             1-00             0.7      0.403      0.000
35                                             2-00            0.38      0.422      0.000
36                                             3-00            0.52      0.490      0.000
37                                             4-00            0.47      0.430      0.000
38                                             1-01            0.77      0.470      0.000
39                                             2-01            0.44      0.488      0.000
40                                             3-01            0.35      0.412      0.000
41                                             4-01             0.6      0.464      0.000
42                                             1-02            0.73      0.466      0.000
43                                             2-02            0.48      0.510      0.000
44                                             3-02            0.46      0.494      0.000
45                                             4-02            0.77      0.573      0.000
46                                             1-03
47                                             2-03
48                                             3-03
49                                             4-03
       H          I         J             K          L         M
 1   SmSeason    Forecast       Error abs(error) abs(%error)   error^2
 2       1.000
 3       1.000
 4       1.000
 5       1.000
 6       1.041      0.496         0.3       0.3      29.2%         0.1
 7       0.971      0.670        -0.2       0.2      18.5%         0.0
 8       1.002      0.567         0.0       0.0       1.3%         0.0
 9       0.987      0.574        -0.1       0.1       7.5%         0.0
10       1.068      0.554         0.2       0.2      17.4%         0.0
11       0.921      0.616        -0.3       0.3      28.9%         0.1
12       0.992      0.479         0.0       0.0       4.9%         0.0
13       0.990      0.444         0.0       0.0       1.6%         0.0
14       1.102      0.490         0.2       0.2      20.0%         0.0
15       0.928      0.531         0.0       0.0       5.3%         0.0
16       0.999      0.602         0.0       0.0       4.8%         0.0
17       1.009      0.628         0.2       0.2      15.0%         0.0
18       1.145      0.796         0.5       0.5      39.7%         0.2
19       0.848      0.889        -0.5       0.5      64.7%         0.3
20       0.970      0.619        -0.2       0.2      17.4%         0.0
21       0.544      0.528        -0.7       0.7     126.5%         0.5
22       1.271      0.153         0.6       0.6      47.8%         0.4
23       0.883      0.370         0.2       0.2      26.0%         0.1
24       0.998      0.573         0.2       0.2      22.7%         0.1
25       0.557      0.394         0.1       0.1      22.6%         0.0
26       1.242      1.089        -0.2       0.2      19.3%         0.1
27       0.857      0.662        -0.2       0.2      21.2%         0.0
28       0.915      0.631        -0.4       0.4      41.6%         0.1
29       1.268      0.231        -0.5       0.5      36.3%         0.2
30       1.488     -0.073         0.6       0.6      42.5%         0.4
31       0.871      0.199         0.0       0.0       4.7%         0.0
32       0.962      0.238         0.2       0.2      21.0%         0.0
33       1.222      0.490        -0.2       0.2      13.1%         0.0
34       1.540      0.467         0.2       0.2      15.1%         0.1
35       0.877      0.352         0.0       0.0       3.2%         0.0
36       0.983      0.406         0.1       0.1      11.6%         0.0
37       1.195      0.599        -0.1       0.1      10.8%         0.0
38       1.561      0.662         0.1       0.1       6.9%         0.0
39       0.883      0.412         0.0       0.0       3.1%         0.0
40       0.955      0.480        -0.1       0.1      13.6%         0.0
41       1.216      0.493         0.1       0.1       8.8%         0.0
42       1.562      0.724         0.0       0.0       0.4%         0.0
43       0.895      0.411         0.1       0.1       7.7%         0.0
44       0.950      0.487         0.0       0.0       2.9%         0.0
45       1.243      0.601         0.2       0.2      13.6%         0.0
46
47
48
49
                                                    Nike EPS (Winters)
          1.4



          1.2



            1



          0.8



          0.6
Revenue




          0.4



          0.2



            0



          -0.2



          -0.4
                 1-92   1-93   1-94   1-95   1-96      1-97      1-98    1-99   1-00   1-01   1-02   1-03

                                                              Quarters
                                                    Nike EPS (Regression)
          1.4



          1.2



            1



          0.8



          0.6
Revenue




          0.4



          0.2



            0



          -0.2



          -0.4
                 1-92   1-93   1-94   1-95   1-96        1-97      1-98     1-99   1-00   1-01   1-02   1-03

                                                                Quarters

								
To top