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					                                                                    Company Report | Stock Idea
LONG TERM INVESTMENT CALL

 AllCargo Global Logistics Ltd.                                                                       30 November 2010                                                  BUY

   Industry                                                  Shipping & Logistics               AllCargo Global Logistics Ltd (AllCargo) offers specialised logistics
   CMP (INR)                                                                 155                services across Multi modal transport operations (MTO), Container Freight
   Target (INR)                                                              233                Station (CFS)/ Inland Container Depot (ICD) and Project & Engineering
   Upside (%)                                                                  50               Solutions.
   52 week High/Low (INR)                                                218/145
   Market Cap (INR BN)                                                         20               Investment Rationale
   3M Avg. Daily Volumes                                                  66,490
   P/E (CY11E)                                                               7.2x               Aggressive capacity expansion plan to drive future revenues

                                                                                                AllCargo has planned to spend ~INR 1.0bn for doubling its current
                                                                                       INR mn
   Key Financials                      CY09             CY10         CY11          CY12         capacity to 288,000 TEUs (Twenty Foot Equivalent Units) at JNPT CFS
   Net Sales                          20,609           27,245       36,780        43,401        which is expected to be completed by 2HCY12. In addition, the company
   EBITDA                              2,191            2,997        4,671         5,642        is also planning to spend INR 500mn for expanding its fleet size for project
   EBITDA margin (%)                   10.6%            11.0%        12.7%         13.0%        and engineering solution segment. We believe capacity expansion at
   PAT                                    1,332        1,860         2,759             3,408    existing JNPT CFS and strong order book position (INR 2bn) of project
   PAT margin (%)                          6.5%         6.8%          7.5%              7.9%    and engineering segment would drive future revenues.
   EPS                                     11.4          14.3             21.1          26.1
   Source: Company, Unicon Research                                                             Focus on emerging market to provide huge potential for growth

                                                                                                With strong network of more than 140 offices in 60 countries, the company
   Shareholding Pattern (%)
                                                                                                is continuously spreading its wings through organic and inorganic
                                  Non-                                                          expansion plans. Recently, the company acquired 2 companies in China
                               Institutions                                                     to strengthen its existing position in China as Chinese economy is one of
                                  17 %
       Institutions                                                                             the fastest growing economies in the world. We believe strategy of
            13%                                         Promoters
                                                                                                focusing on emerging market would provide huge potential for growth
                                                           70%
                                                                                                going forward.

                                                                                                Change in revenue mix to improve operating margins going forward

                                                                                                As the company is increasing its JNPT CFS capacity, contribution in
   Stock Performance (Last one year)                                                            revenues from CFS business would increase to ~10% in CY11 compared to
                       AllCargo                              NSE Nifty
                                                                                                existing ~8%. CFS business commands higher margins (EBIT margin of
    250                                                                                         ~44.3% in Q3CY10) compared to other business segments, therefore we
    200                                                                                         believe EBIT margin would improve by 250bps to 10.5% in CY11 from 8%
    150                                                                                         in CY09.
    100
      50
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                                                                                                AllCargo is benefiting from growth in ECU Line’s business and also
   Source: Cline, Unicon Research
                                                                                                spreading its wings through inorganic acquisitions in emerging markets.
                                                                                                The company’s project and engineering solution division is expected to
                                                                                                continue its growth momentum going forward on the back of current
                                                                                                order book of INR 2bn which would be executed in Q4CY10 and CY11. At
                                                                                                CMP, the stock trades at 7.2x of our CY11 earnings estimates (EPS of INR
                                                                                                21.1) which is available lower than its peers group average P/E of 13.6x.
                                                                                                We have valued AllCargo at 11x its CY11 EPS as we believe 20% discount
                                                                                                to its peer group average PE multiple of CY11 is justifiable considering
                                                                                                AllCargo’s lower margins compared to other competitors. We arrive at a
   Analyst                                                                                      price target of INR 233 for 12 to 18 months. We recommend a Buy on this
   Rupin Shah | rshah2@uniconindia.in                                                           stock.


                                                                                                                                                                        1
   Wealth Research, Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd.
   Email: wealthresearch@uniconindia.in
AllCargo Global Logistics Ltd.
                                                              Investment Rationale

Company’s Capacity at different CFS                           Aggressive capacity expansion plan to drive future revenues

                      AllCargo's CFS                          The company has very aggressive capacity expansion plan for its existing CFS.
                         Facilities                           In CY10 till date, the company spent INR 200mn for expanding its capacity at
                                                              Chennai and Mundra CFS by 34,000 TEUs and 27,000 TEUs respectively. The
                                                              company has also spent INR 2.3bn for fleet expansion of project & engineering
                                                              segment (INR 350mn for acquisition of two vessels for ODC projects having
      JNPT               Chennai                 Mundra
  144,000 TEUs         120,000 TEUs             77,000 TEUs   capacity of 6,500 Dead Weight Tonnage (DWT) and INR 2.0bn for 24 trailers, 35
                                                              cranes 4 reach stackers).
Source: Company

                                                              Going forward in CY11 and 2HCY12, the company has planned to spend ~1.0bn
CY11 Capex Break-up (INR 2.5 bn)                              for capacity expansion at JNPT (144,000 TEUs) CFS. The company is also planning
                                                              to spend INR 500mn for expanding its fleet size for project and engineering
                   Project ad
                                                              solution segment (current order of segment: 2bn to be executed in Q4CY10 and
                  engineering
                      fleet                                   CY11) considering the robust demand from windmill, power projects, refineries,
                   expansion           JNPT and               metro & airport projects and building construction projects. We expect operating
                       0.5 bn
  Other regular                       Other CFS capacity      revenues of the company would increase at a CAGR of 33.6% to 36.8bn between
      capex                            Expansion              CY09 and CY11.
     0.2 bn                             1.0 bn

            ICD                                               Focus on emerging market to provide huge potential for growth
        development
          0.4 bn           Expansion of                       AllCargo is continuously expanding its network in local and global market.
                           ware housing
                                                              Currently, the company has 140 offices in 60 countries. However, the company
                             capacity
                              0.4 bn                          does not own office in the US and operates through an agent-Econocaribe (the
Source: Company                                               world’s third largest NVOCC player) for the US-EU corridor. We believe this
                                                              strategy will benefit AllCargo as a direct presence would have otherwise required
                                                              huge investments to set-up operations.

                                                              The company also has presence in the emerging markets like Brazil, Vietnam
                                                              and Russia. The company has 8 offices in China and recently acquired two Hong
                                                              Kong based companies which have their operations in China (one in Shanghai
                                                              with 75% stake and another at Ningbo with 100% stake) for USD 22mn. As
                                                              Chinese economy is expected to continue its growth momentum, these
                                                              acquisitions would remain major volume drivers for the company going
                                                              forward. Emerging economies offer huge potential for expansion in terms of
                                                              growing trade.




                                                                                                                                           2
Wealth Research, Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd.
Email: wealthresearch@uniconindia.in
AllCargo Global Logistics Ltd.
AllCargo’s net Sales & Margin picture                       Change in revenue mix to improve operating margins going forward
(INR mn)
                Net Sales           EBITDA margin (%)       AllCargo is planning to double its JNPT CFS facility to 2,88,000 TEUs per annum
                        PAT margin (%)                      by 2HCY12. The company is focusing on expanding capacity of its CFS to improve
50,000                                              16.0%   its overall margins as its CFS division enjoys higher margins (EBIT margin
                                                            ~44.3% in Q3CY10) compared to the domestic MTO business (EBIT margin ~6.5%
                                                            in Q3CY10). As the company is increasing its JNPT CFS capacity, contribution
                                                            in revenues from CFS business would increase to ~10% in CY11 compared to
35,000                                              12.0%
                                                            existing ~8%.

                                                            With recent acquisition of two Hong Kong based companies in NVOCC space,
20,000                                              8.0%    AllCargo has strengthened its position in Chinese market. Together these two
                                                            companies generated revenues of USD 35mn and ~10% EBITDA margin in CY09
                                                            for the company. We believe these acquisitions would not only boost revenue
                                                            for the company but also improve overall margins of the company. We expect
 5,000                                              4.0%    EBIT margin would improve by 250bps to 10.5% in CY11 from 8% in CY09.
             CY09      CY10        CY11    CY12
Source: Company, Unicon research


                                                            Key Concerns

                                                            Increase in fuel prices will reduce margins of the company

                                                            The transportation charge mainly depends upon crude oil prices. Though the
                                                            current prices are at comfortable level, any sharp rise in the global market may
                                                            force the Indian Government to hike the domestic fuel prices and thereby would
                                                            increase the costs of the company.

                                                            Economic slowdown may have an adverse impact on company

                                                            The Logistics industry has witnessed strong traffic growth due to robust
                                                            economic growth in India. However, India may face the risk of economic
                                                            slowdown in future. Since the country’s growth has positive correlation with
                                                            the Logistics industry, AllCargo’s performance would be affected if India’s
                                                            growth will slow down going forward.

                                                            Changes in regulatory environment may impact negatively

                                                            The market in which the company operates is highly regulated. Any changes in
                                                            oil prices or on tax structure declared by regulatory authorities would impact
                                                            company’s margins.




                                                                                                                                        3
Wealth Research, Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd.
Email: wealthresearch@uniconindia.in
AllCargo Global Logistics Ltd.
                                      About the Company

                                      AllCargo is the 2nd largest global player in LCL (less than container load) consolidation
                                      business. Through its MTO operations, the company offers end-to-end freight services
                                      to exporter and importer of cargo and this is done through more than one form of
                                      transportation modes. MTO segment continues to be the major revenue driver for the
                                      company, accounting for ~89% of its CY09 revenues, with the balance being contributed
                                      by CFS operations (~8%) and Equipment hiring segments (~3%).

                                      The company operates primarily in three segments, viz. MTO, CFS/ICDs operations and
                                      Equipment hiring division.

                                      MTO business: It comprises of two sub-segments- NVOCC (Non-Vessel Owning
                                      Container Carrier) segment and project logistics. NVOCC involves LCL consolidation
                                      activities in India and overseas. NVOCC services are classified under two sub-categories:
                                      LCL (less than container load) and FCL (full container load) consolidation. AllCargo
                                      undertakes LCL consolidation of multiple types of cargo from various consignees in a
                                      single container. This service is beneficial for small exporters/importers, since they
                                      often have insufficient cargo to fill an entire container. ECU Line is the main subsidiary
                                      of the company which has overseas network for LCL activities. AllCargo, by acquiring
                                      ECU Line, has expanded the geographical reach of its LCL services. Project logistics
                                      provides services in ODC (over dimensional cargo) and OWC (overweight cargo)
                                      logistics.

                                      CFS/ICDs business: A CFS is a warehouse located near a port that facilitates customs
                                      clearance of cargo, essentially acting as an extension of the port. The CFS container yard
                                      space is equipped to handle containers and provide storage, handling and cargo
                                      consolidation services. It involves cargo stuffing, de-stuffing, custom clearance and
                                      other related ancillary services to importers and exporters. The company’s largest CFS
                                      is located at the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT), Mumbai. This CFS is spread over
                                      23 acres and has a total storage capacity of up to 144,000 TEUs Apart from CFS at JNPT,
                                      the company also has CFS at Mundra and Chennai as well as an ICD at Pithampura
                                      (Indore). The company commands ~9% market share at JNPT, ~10% market share at
                                      Chennai and ~7% market share at Mundra.
                                      AllCargo’s Business Model
                                                                                                Allcargo Global Logistics Ltd.




                                                                                                                                               Projects &
                                                                 CFS/ICDs                              MTO Operation
                                                                                                                                          Engineering Solution



                                                                         Air freight                                                         Project cargo
                                                                                                     NVOCC (LCL/FCL)
                                                                     forwarding




                                                                                       Import                                    Export


                                      Source: Company, Unicon Research

                                      Projects & Engineering solution business: It provides integrated end to end project,
                                      engineering and logistics through a diverse fleet of owned or rented special equipment
                                      like cranes, hydraulic axles, barges, reach-stackers, to carry ODC/OWC as well as project
                                      engineering solutions across various infrastructure industries. The company also offers
                                      equipments like cranes, reach-stackers and trailers on rental basis. Currently, the com-
                                      pany has 84 cranes, 71 forklifts, 425 trailers, 22 reach stackers.
                                                                                                                                                                 4
Wealth Research, Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd.
Email: wealthresearch@uniconindia.in
AllCargo Global Logistics Ltd.
                                    Industry Overview

                                    The Indian Logistics Industry

                                    Logistics refers to all activities relating to the procurement, transport and storage of
                                    goods. The fortune of a company operating in the Indian logistics sector is closely linked to
                                    India’s overall GDP growth. The Indian economy has witnessed fast paced growth over
                                    the last decade, making it one of the preferred investment locations across the globe. As
                                    per the Planning commission report of Government of India, GDP is expected to grow at
                                    8-9% over CY10-CY20.

                                    The amount spent on logistics in India is around 13%-15% of GDP, higher than developed
                                    countries due to poor infrastructure and undeveloped services. National highways in
                                    India account for less than 2% of the total road network but carry 40% of the traffic,
                                    resulting in a national average speed of commercial vehicles in India of 20 miles per hour,
                                    compared to around 60 miles per hour in some developed economies. The lifespan of a
                                    vehicle in India is directly correlated with the condition of India’s roads. Poor condition
                                    increases logistical operating costs and reduces efficiency. Furthermore, rail transportation
                                    in India is around 3-4 times more expensive than the same service in some European
                                    countries. These additional costs are compounded by India’s cumbersome and substandard
                                    custom clearance processes. For example, the average time taken to clear import and
                                    export cargo at a port in India is 19 days, compared to 3-4 days in Singapore. These factors
                                    are increasing margins and driving down the profitability of Indian logistics companies.
                                    However, as companies focus on their core competencies, they are outsourcing ancillary
                                    activities to third party service providers. Outsourcing logistics requirements to third
                                    party logistics players has improved customer service, enhanced flexibility and reduced
                                    costs. Third party logistics providers specialize in integrated operations, warehousing
                                    and transportation services that can be scaled and customized according to a client’s
                                    requirements. However, this sector is at a very nascent stage in India. Currently, third
                                    party logistics players in India handle only 7% of total logistics business, compared to
                                    more than 50% in developed economies.

                                    MTO business

                                    The size of Indian MTO market is more than INR 20bn. MTO is a low capital business and
                                    there are virtually no entry barriers. Therefore, it is a very fragmented sector dominated
                                    by unorganized players. The MTO business is a low margin business, and economic
                                    viability only comes with high volumes. Of the MTO businesses, LCL is a higher margin
                                    business compared to FCL due to value added by consolidation. NVOCC operates its
                                    MTO business as an LCL and a FCL sea freight forwarder and undertakes the consolidation
                                    of cargo by renting space on vessels for their own containers. The company expects MTO
                                    business in India to grow at a CAGR of 7-8% over the next five years.

                                    CFS/ICDs business

                                    There are around 199 ports in India, 12 of which are major ports which handle ~75% of
                                    total port traffic. Freight forwarders and MTOs are the key clients of CFS operators. The
                                    performance of operators in this market sector is essentially determined by their ability
                                    to balance volume throughput and dwell time. Container cargo is expected to grow at a
                                    CAGR of 15.5% over next seven years.




                                                                                                                             5
Wealth Research, Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd.
Email: wealthresearch@uniconindia.in
AllCargo Global Logistics Ltd.

                                     Industry Outlook:

                                     The National Maritime Development Programme (NMDP) launched by the Government
                                     of India (GoI) in 2005 is the GoI’s most significant initiative to bring about an all-round
                                     improvement in the Indian maritime sector. A total of 251 projects at an investment
                                     outlay of INR 568bn have been identified to augment the capacity of the major ports by
                                     429 mmt, thereby taking the total beyond the 1,000 mmt mark by FY12. The first phase of
                                     this project was completed in FY09 while the second phase, which is currently under
                                     way, is scheduled for completion by FY12 end. In FY10, of the total traffic handled at the
                                     major ports, Petro products accounted for the maximum at 31%, iron ore (18%) and coal
                                     (13%). Going forward, we believe cargo growth to continue on an upward trajectory
                                     given the ongoing and proposed investments in the key user segments. Thermal coal
                                     imports in the country are expected to increase significantly on the back of the large
                                     number of ongoing and proposed power projects of companies like TATA Power, Adani
                                     Power, Mundra and other projects. With a number of greenfield refineries in project
                                     stage and brownfield expansions being implemented at existing refineries, the import of
                                     crude oil and export of surplus petroleum products are expected to be major contributors
                                     to overall cargo volumes.




                                                                                                                            6
Wealth Research, Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd.
Email: wealthresearch@uniconindia.in
AllCargo Global Logistics Ltd.

Peer Comparison
                            Market Capital         TTM Revenues     TTM EBITDA        TTM PAT         Market         FY11e      FY12Ee
 Company          CMP
                                 (INR Bn)            (INR Mn)       Margin (%)   Margin (%) cap/sales Ratio PE Ratio PE Ratio
 AllCargo          154.7                    19.8         24,883.0            9.8         6.3             0.8    10.7       7.2
 Concor           1259.9                163.8            36,984.6              26.2          21.1              4.4       19.4       18.5
 GDL*              103.6                    11.2          1,592.4              51.8          50.8              7.0       13.7       11.0
 TCI               641.6                     7.6         16,181.0               7.6           3.1              0.5       12.6       11.2
Source: Bloomberge, Unicon Research
*standalone financials


                                                         While Concor and GDL has its presence in Railway container haulage business
                                                         as well as CFS/ICDs business, AllCargo caters to various logistics segments
                                                         such as NVOCC, freight forwarding, road container haulage business, CFS/ICDs
                                                         business, project engineering and solution, 3PL (third party logistics) business
                                                         and warehousing.

                                                         AllCargo operates in many other areas, especially NVOCC segment which is a
                                                         very low margin business. As NVOCC segment command very low margin
                                                         (EBIT margin of ~6.5%), AllCargo’s margins are not comparable with other
                                                         players in logistics space. However, AllCargo operates its business model with
                                                         unique synergy between NVOCC and CFS/ICDs business. At one hand, AllCargo
                                                         contacts and books container space with shipping companies for its clients of
                                                         NVOCC segment and on other hand, it gets clients of CFS/ICDs service from
                                                         shipping companies. Therefore, the company gets clients of CFS/ICDs business
                                                         from shipping companies by providing business of containers cargo to shipping
                                                         companies through NVOCC business.

                                                         Outlook & Valuation

                                                         We expect the Logistics industry to perform well on the back of various infra-
                                                         structure development activities such as ports expansion/modernization men-
                                                         tioned in the Eleventh Planning Commission report (total outlay INR 2,618bn)
                                                         and different expansion plans of Allcargo for setting up ICDs/CFS. AllCargo has
                                                         a strong presence in NVOCC business through wide network of ECU Line and
                                                         also has a strong hold on its domestic MTO business. AllCargo benefits from the
                                                         growth in the ECU Line business (NVOCC) and also spreading its wings through
                                                         inorganic acquisitions in emerging markets. The company’s project and engi-
                                                         neering solution division is performing really well and is expected to continue
                                                         its growth momentum going forward on the back of current order book of INR
                                                         2bn which would be executed in Q4CY10 and CY11. We believe expansion of
                                                         CFS capacity at JNPT would improve margins going forward. We have valued
                                                         AllCargo at 11x its CY11 EPS as we believe 20% discount to its peer group
                                                         average PE multiple of CY11 is justifiable considering AllCargo’s lower margins
                                                         compared to other competitors. We arrive at a price target of INR 233 for 12 to
                                                         18 months. We recommend a Buy on this stock.




                                                                                                                                     7
Wealth Research, Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd.
Email: wealthresearch@uniconindia.in
AllCargo Global Logistics Ltd.
Financials                                                                    INR mn                                                                              INR mn

Income Statement (Consolidated)       CY08       CY09     CY10E     CY11E     CY12E    Consoliadted Balance Sheet          CY08      CY09     CY10E     CY11E     CY12E
Net Sales                           23140.8    20609.3   27244.7   36780.3   43400.7   SOURCES OF FUNDS
% chg                                43.4%    (10.9%)     32.2%     35.0%     18.0%    Equity Share Capital                 517.6     249.9     249.9     249.9     249.9
Total Expenditure                   20939.7    18418.3   24247.7   32109.2   37758.6   Reserves & Surplus                  5579.7    9544.8   11218.5   13701.9   16768.6
% chg                                42.3%    (12.0%)     31.6%     32.4%     17.6%    Net Worth                           6097.2    9794.7   11468.4   13951.8   17018.5
EBIDTA                               2201.1     2191.0    2997.0    4671.1    5642.1   ESOPs Out standing                    16.2      16.5      16.5      16.5      16.5
Margin (%)                            9.5%      10.6%     11.0%     12.7%     13.0%    Total Loans                         3439.6    2044.3    3445.5    3492.1    3407.0
Other Income                          106.4      285.8     283.5     221.4     223.0   Net Deffered Tax Liabilities         127.2     179.3     179.3     179.3     179.3
Depreciation & Amortisation           447.2      544.7     590.2     799.1     901.7   Minority Interest                    114.9     134.5     239.3     394.7     586.7
Interest                              248.5      231.6     209.7     413.5     419.0   Capital Employed                    9795.1   12169.4   15349.0   18034.4   21208.1
PBT                                  1611.8     1700.5    2480.6    3679.9    4544.4   APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Margin (%)                            6.9%       8.1%      9.0%      9.9%     10.4%    Gross Block                         7084.4    9240.8   11553.6   14053.6   15053.6
Total Tax                             357.3      260.4     515.8     765.1     944.9   Less: Acc. Depreciation             1460.3    2052.5    2642.8    3441.9    4343.5
(% of PBT)                           22.2%      15.3%     20.8%     20.8%     20.8%    Net Block                           5624.1    7188.3    8910.8   10611.7   10710.1
PAT                                  1254.4     1440.1    1964.8    2914.8    3599.5   Capital Work-in-Progress             741.1     749.9     853.0     928.0     958.0
Minority Interest                     138.7      107.6     104.8     155.5     192.0   Investments                          828.1    1668.2    1378.2    1378.2    1378.2
Adj. PAT                             1115.7     1332.5    1860.0    2759.3    3407.5   Current Assets                      5673.3    5463.1    7252.2    8840.2   11732.2
% chg                                 4.8%      19.4%     39.6%     48.3%     23.5%    Current Liabilities                 3074.6    2900.2    3045.3    3723.8    3570.3
Margin (%)                            4.8%       6.4%      6.8%      7.5%      7.8%    Net Current Assets                  2598.7    2562.9    4207.0    5116.5    8161.8
Source : Company, Unicon Research                                                      Miscellaneous Expenditure              3.2       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0
                                                                                       Capital Deployed                    9795.1   12169.4   15349.0   18034.4   21208.1
                                                                                       Source : Company, Unicon Research




                                                                                                                                                                    8
Wealth Research, Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd.
Email: wealthresearch@uniconindia.in
AllCargo Global Logistics Ltd.
                                           Unicon Investment Ranking Methodology
                         Rating             Buy           Accumulate             Hold              Reduce              Sell

                     Return Range          >= 20%         10% to 20%         -10% to 10%        -10% to -20%         <= -20%




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Wealth Management

Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt. Ltd.

Ground Floor, Jhawar House,

285, Princess Street, Mumbai-400002

Ph: 022-43591200 / 100

Email: wealthresearch@uniconindia.in

Visit us at www.uniconindia.in




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Wealth Research, Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt Ltd.
Email: wealthresearch@uniconindia.in

				
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