55 by dandanhuanghuang

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									                                                          CRIMES IN ISRAEL


                                700

                                      626.5333252

                                600
                                                    555.2000122                                559.375

                                                                              507.8666687
MEAN NUMBER OF CRIMES PER DAY




                                500




                                400




                                300




                                200




                                100




                                  0
                                      Q1 (65-126)   Q2 (127-161)              Q3 (162-187)   Q4 (188-241)
                                                         QUARLILES OF MTUF GROUP SIZE
                                                            AUTO ACCIDENTS IN JERUSALEM


                                        4.5


                                         4    3.933333397
MEAN NUMBER OF AUTO ACCIDENTS PER DAY




                                        3.5

                                                                  3                                        3
                                         3

                                                                                       2.533333302
                                        2.5


                                         2


                                        1.5


                                         1


                                        0.5


                                         0
                                              Q1 (65-126)    Q2 (127-161)              Q3 (162-187)   Q4 (188-241)
                                                                  QUARTILES OF MTUF GROUP SIZE
                                                 FIRES PER DAY IN JERUSALEM


                               9

                                   8.133333206
                               8


                               7
                                                 6.400000095
MEAN NUMBER OF FIRES PER DAY




                                                                           6.066666603
                               6                                                              5.75


                               5


                               4


                               3


                               2


                               1


                               0
                                   Q1 (65-126)   Q2 (127-161)              Q3 (162-187)   Q4 (188-241)
                                                      QUARTILES OF MTUF GROUP SIZE
                                      NATIONAL MOOD OF ISRAEL


                   5
                                                                               4.64956522

                  4.5

                                                                4.070264816
                   4

                                      3.492680788
                  3.5
MEAN MOOD SCALE




                   3
                        2.711138964

                  2.5


                   2


                  1.5


                   1


                  0.5


                   0
                        Q1 (65-126)   Q2 (127-161)              Q3 (162-187)   Q4 (188-241)
                                           QUARTILES OF MTUF GROUP SIZE
                                        OverC Composite Index=Mean (Inverted Zlog Death, Inverted ZWar Intensity, Inverted ZAuto
                                                         Accidents, Inverted Zfires, ZNational Mood, Zstocks)


                           3


                         2.5


                           2


                         1.5
STANDARDIZED SCORE (Z)




                           1


                         0.5


                           0
                                1   3    5   7   9   11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61

                         -0.5


                          -1


                         -1.5


                          -2
                                                                                    DAYS
                                          Z OverD Composite Index=Mean(Inverted ZDeath, Inverted ZWar Intensity, Inverted ZAuto
                                                          Accidents, Inverted Zfires, ZNational Mood, Zstocks)


                         3




                         2




                         1
STANDARDIZED SCORE (Z)




                         0                                                                                                        ZOVERD
                              1   3   5    7   9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61



                         -1




                         -2




                         -3
                                                                               DAYS
                                       Z OverE Composite Index = Mean (Inverted ZDeath, Inverted ZWar Intensity, Inverted ZAuto
                                                Accidents, Inverted Zfires, ZNational Mood, Zstocks, Inverted ZTemp)


                          3




                          2
STANDARDIZED SCORES (Z)




                          1




                          0
                               1   3   5   7   9   11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61



                          -1




                          -2




                          -3
                                                                                   DAYS
                                      Z OverF Composite Index = Mean ( Inverted Zlog Death, Inverted ZWar Intensity, Inverted
                                            ZAuto Accidents, Inverted Zfires, ZNational Mood, Zstocks, Inverted ZTemp)


                         3




                         2




                         1
STANDARDIZED SCORE (Z)




                         0
                              1   3     5   7   9   11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61



                         -1




                         -2




                         -3
                                                                                     DAYS
                                    Z OverG Composite Index = (Mean of Inverted ZWar Intensity, Inverted ZCrime Israel, Inverted
                                        ZAuto Accidents, Inverted Zfires, Znational Mood, Zstocks, Inverted Z Temperature)


                           3


                         2.5


                           2


                         1.5
STANDARDIZED SCORE (Z)




                           1


                         0.5


                           0
                                1   3   5   7   9   11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61

                         -0.5


                          -1


                         -1.5


                          -2


                         -2.5
                                                                                  DAYS
                                                                             ZOVERALL


                            3


                          2.5


                            2


                          1.5
STANDARDIZED SCORES (Z)




                            1


                          0.5


                            0
                                 1   3   5   7   9   11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61

                          -0.5


                           -1


                          -1.5


                           -2


                          -2.5
                                                                                  DAYS
                                         ISRAELI STOCK MARKET


                   470




                   460                                                          458.387146




                   450                                           448.2099915


                                       442.2155457
MEAN STOCK VALUE




                   440




                   430
                         425.0214233


                   420




                   410




                   400
                         Q1 (65-126)   Q2 (127-161)              Q3 (162-187)   Q4 (188-241)
                                            QUARTILES OF MTUF GROUP SIZE
                                                   CRIME IN ISRAEL (MINUS JERUSALEM)


                               700




                               600   575.333313


                                                       505.9333191                               514.0625
MEAN NUMBER OF CRIME PER DAY




                               500
                                                                                 464.8666687



                               400




                               300




                               200




                               100




                                 0
                                     Q1 (65-126)       Q2 (127-161)              Q3 (162-187)   Q4 (188-241)
                                                            QUARTILES OF MTUF GROUP SIZE
                                                       CRIME IN JERUSALEM


                                60



                                     51.20000076
                                                   49.26666641
                                50
                                                                                              45.3125
                                                                                 43
MEAN NUMBER OF CRIMES PER DAY




                                40




                                30




                                20




                                10




                                 0
                                     Q1 (65-126)   Q2 (127-161)              Q3 (162-187)   Q4 (188-241)
                                                        QUARTILES OF MTUF GROUP SIZE
                                                              OVERALL COMPOSITE INDEX


                                        0.8

                                                                                                       0.59409374
                                        0.6                                             0.521953344


                                        0.4
OVERALL INDEX (STANDARDIZED Z SCORES)




                                        0.2


                                          0

                                                              -0.080106668
                                        -0.2


                                        -0.4


                                        -0.6


                                        -0.8


                                         -1

                                               -1.075526714
                                        -1.2
                                               Q1 (65-126)    Q2 (127-161)              Q3 (162-187)   Q4 (188-241)
                                                                   QUARTILES OF MTUF GROUP SIZE
                                                               PREWHITENED OVERALL INDEX (AR1)


                                                         1.2
RESIDUALS OF OVERALL INDEX AR1 (STANDARDIZED Z SCORES)




                                                          1




                                                         0.8




                                                         0.6




                                                         0.4




                                                         0.2




                                                          0
                                                                      QUARTILES OF MTUF GROUP SIZE
                                                                          Overall Index


                      3




                      2




                      1
Standardized Scores




                                                                                                                               Series1
                      0                                                                                                        Series2
                           1   3   5   7   9   11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61   Series3



                      -1




                      -2




                      -3
                                                                      Experimental Days
                               21ce0e75-aa7e-4d06-9dba-9320395363bd.xls


David W. Orme-Johnson, Ph.D.                  davidoj@earthlink.net
Data from Orme-Johnson DW, Alexander CN, Davies JL, Chandler HM, Larimore WE. International peace project in the Middle
If you use this data, please let me know what you are doing.
Also, I would appreciate it if you discussed any results you find with me before you publish them. Thanks, David

DATE        TM Group* TH124       TH157       TH179       TH180+       QUARTILEHIHOL       ALLHOL
        1         65          1           0           0            0          1        0            0
        2         88          1           0           0            0          1        0            0
        3        105          1           0           0            0          1        0            0
        4        113          1           0           0            0          1        0            0
        5        125          1           0           0            0          1        0            0
        6        140          0           1           0            0          2        0            0
        7        158          0           1           0            0          2        0            0
        8        162          0           0           1            0          3        0            0
        9        162          0           0           1            0          3        0            0
       10        167          0           0           1            0          3        0            0
       11        158          0           1           0            0          2        0            0
       12        175          0           0           1            0          3        0            0
       13        176          0           0           1            0          3        0            0
       14        177          0           0           1            0          3        0            0
       15        195          0           0           0            1          4        0            0
       16        198          0           0           0            1          4        0            0
       17        187          0           0           1            0          3        0            0
       18        194          0           0           0            1          4        0            0
       19        205          0           0           0            1          4        0            0
       20        204          0           0           0            1          4        0            0
       21        198          0           0           0            1          4        0            0
       22        194          0           0           0            1          4        0            0
       23        192          0           0           0            1          4        0            0
       24        190          0           0           0            1          4        0            0
       25        187          0           0           1            0          3        0            0
       26        206          0           0           0            1          4        0            0
       27        212          0           0           0            1          4        0            0
       28        161          0           1           0            0          2        0            0
       29        144          0           1           0            0          2        0            0
       30        136          0           1           0            0          2        0            0
       31        113          1           0           0            0          1        0            0
        1        128          0           1           0            0          2        0            0
        2        241          0           0           0            1          4        0            0
        3        236          0           0           0            1          4        0            0
        4        130          0           1           0            0          2        0            0
        5        125          1           0           0            0          1        0            0
        6        119          1           0           0            0          1        0            0
        7        146          0           1           0            0          2        0            0
        8        165          0           0           1            0          3        1            1
        9        175          0           0           1            0          3        0            0
       10        171          0           0           1            0          3        0            0
       11        108          1           0           0            0          1        0            0
       12         99          1           0           0            0          1        0            0
       13        113          1           0           0            0          1        0            0
       14        110          1           0           0            0          1        0            0
       15        127          0           1           0            0          2        0            0


                                                      17                                                3/9/2012
                                21ce0e75-aa7e-4d06-9dba-9320395363bd.xls


       16        146           0          1          0          0          2          0          0
       17        132           0          1          0          0          2          1          1
       18        116           1          0          0          0          1          0          0
       19        117           1          0          0          0          1          0          0
       20        119           1          0          0          0          1          0          0
       21        174           0          0          1          0          3          0          0
       22        199           0          0          0          1          4          0          1
       23        208           0          0          0          1          4          0          1
       24        195           0          0          0          1          4          0          1
       25        137           0          1          0          0          2          0          1
       26        143           0          1          0          0          2          0          1
       27        147           0          1          0          0          2          0          1
       28        180           0          0          1          0          3          0          1
       29        180           0          0          1          0          3          0          1
       30        165           0          0          1          0          3          0          0

MEAN             158
SD          38.02412




*Notes: The original data was analyse on a Vax computer, which died sometime in the 1980's. Although the data was backup o
 War Deaths was derived by exponentiating Log Deaths
TM Group was recovered from Z-transformed data, where X = Z * SD + Mean.
Mood was derived from Z-scores of Zmood and means and SD




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                  24                       3/9/2012
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                               Autocorrelation Function
                        OVERAL_1: ARIMA (1,0,0) residuals;
                      (Standard errors are white-noise estimates)
Lag Corr.    S.E.                                                       Q      p
1 -.035     .1250                                                       .08    .7767
2 +.056     .1239                                                       .28    .8681
3 -.007     .1229                                                       .29    .9627
4 +.067     .1218                                                       .59    .9646
5 +.082     .1207                                                     1.04     .9589
6 +.051     .1196                                                     1.23     .9755
7 +.237     .1185                                                     5.23     .6316
8 -.004     .1174                                                     5.23     .7324
9 -.039     .1163                                                     5.34     .8034
10 -.133    .1152                                                     6.67     .7559
11 -.101    .1141                                                     7.47     .7602
                       25                                           3/9/2012
12 -.108    .1129                                                     8.38     .7549
13 +.074    .1118                                                     8.82     .7862
14 +.148    .1106                                                    10.62     .7155
3 -.007    .1229                                             .29   .9627
4 +.067    .1218                                             .59   .9646
5 +.082    .1207                                            1.04   .9589
6 +.051    .1196                                            1.23   .9755
     21ce0e75-aa7e-4d06-9dba-9320395363bd.xls
7 +.237    .1185                                            5.23   .6316
8 -.004    .1174                                            5.23   .7324
9 -.039    .1163                                            5.34   .8034
10 -.133   .1152                                            6.67   .7559
11 -.101   .1141                                            7.47   .7602
12 -.108   .1129                                            8.38   .7549
13 +.074   .1118                                            8.82   .7862
14 +.148   .1106                                        10.62      .7155
15 -.192   .1094                                        13.71      .5479

               -1.0         -0.5        0.0     0.5   1.0




                       26                             3/9/2012
                                                21ce0e75-aa7e-4d06-9dba-9320395363bd.xls




ernational peace project in the Middle East: the effects of the Maharishi Technology of the Unified Field. Journal of Conflict Resolution 1988 3

them. Thanks, David
                       LOG DTHS equals Natural log of number of war deaths plus 1.
              WAR DTHS LOG DTHS WAR INTEN CRIME ISR CRIME JER AUTO                             FIRES         MOOD
                     7      2.08         3.17          759           61                    2             5           3.0
                     3      1.39         1.83          607           47                    1            16           6.1
                     0      0.00            0          661           60                    4            15           1.0
                     0      0.00            0          671           50                    7            18           4.0
                     0      0.00            2          676           48                    9             9           2.0
                    20      3.04            1          487           40                    1             8
                    35      3.58          2.5          662           49                    3             6           1.5
                     0      0.00         0.83          630           54                    2             5           2.0
                     0      0.00            1          575           47                    5             3           2.0
                     7      2.08         2.83          617           54                    5            11           3.5
                     1      0.69         2.17          661           64                    6            10           3.5
                     0      0.00            2          664           63                    2             3           3.0
                     0      0.00         1.83          482           48                    0             9
                     4      1.61            0          658           47                    4             8
                     0      0.00         0.67          650           50                    5            10           5.1
                     0      0.00            0          645           51                    3             9           2.5
                     0      0.00            0          584           56                    2             9           5.1
                     1      0.69            1          643           62                    5             9           4.5
                     0      0.00         0.77          634           56                    2             3           5.1
                     1      0.69            0          527           34                    0             1
                     1      0.69         1.25          623           56                    4             5           6.1
                     6      1.95         2.67          577           38                    3             6
                     0      0.00         1.17          585           55                    2             8           6.1
                     1      0.69            1          630           40                    2             3           3.0
                     7      2.08            1          633           61                    3             5           6.1
                     1      0.69            1          592           56                    4             2           5.6
                     1      0.69            1          465           38                    1             6
                     0      0.00          2.4          617           74                    3             7           3.5
                    16      2.83            4          603           63                    1             7           3.0
                     4      1.61            4          603           46                    2            11           4.0
                    24      3.22            4          655           52                    7             9           3.0
                    20      3.04         2.67          633           51                    4             4           1.5
                     1      0.69         1.83          621           48                    4             8           3.5
                     0      0.00            1          458           19                    5             6
                    51      3.95            4          554           43                    5            10           3.0
                    61      4.13            4          631           43                    4             7           1.5
                   135      4.91            4          670           59                    5             5           1.5
                    37      3.64         3.33          710           64                    1             6           4.0
                    68      4.23            4          400           30                    1             6
                    64      4.17         3.17          409           24                    0             7
                   128      4.86            4          469           32                    3             5
                    64      4.17            4          621           36                    1             6           1.0
                    67      4.22         3.83          540           54                    4             4           2.0
                    37      3.64            2          609           53                    3             7           3.5
                    74      4.32            4          632           57                    1             6           3.0
                    61      4.13         3.33          598           48                    7             3           2.0


                                                                      27                                                   3/9/2012
                                              21ce0e75-aa7e-4d06-9dba-9320395363bd.xls


                     55         4.03             3         522            35             2            5           3.5
                     50         3.93          2.67         238            17             1            1
                     25         3.26             4         580            60             6            5           1.5
                     50         3.93             4         506            43             3            7           4.5
                     55         4.03             3         580            45             2            3           2.5
                     45         3.83          2.67         555            54             1            5           5.1
                     42         3.76          2.33         374            40             3            3
                      5         1.79          3.08         546            44             3            9           5.1
                     68         4.23          3.67         380            38             2            4
                     74         4.32             4         527            55             3            8           4.5
                      2         1.10           1.5         463            49             3            6           6.1
                     17         2.89             3         450            41             3            4           4.9
                      0         0.00             1         424            30             5            3           4.9
                      0         0.00             1         308            18             1            9
                      0         0.00             1         210            27             4            3           5.0

               24.5159       2.0574        2.2323     562.1967      47.1639        3.1148       6.5738        3.6000
               32.2428       1.7531        1.3513     111.1242      12.2245        1.9330       3.3489        1.5000




0's. Although the data was backup on magnetic tape, some of it was lost due to deterioration of the tape. However the section containing Z-t




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es)
                         Q     p
                         .08   .7767
                         .28   .8681
                         .29   .9627
                                        Normal Probability Plot: OVERAL_1
                         .59   .9646         ARIMA (1,0,0) residuals;
                       1.04    .9589
                       3
                       1.23    .9755
                       5.23    .6316
                       5.23
                       2       .7324
                       5.34    .8034
                       6.67    .7559
      d Normal Value




                       1
                       7.47    .7602
                                                              35                  3/9/2012
                       8.38    .7549
                        8.82
                        0      .7862
                       10.62   .7155
                                .29     .9627
                                                      Normal Probability Plot: OVERAL_1
                                .59     .9646               ARIMA (1,0,0) residuals;
                              1.04      .9589
                              3
                              1.23      .9755
                                                     21ce0e75-aa7e-4d06-9dba-9320395363bd.xls
                              5.23      .6316
                              5.23
                              2         .7324
                              5.34      .8034
                              6.67      .7559
      Expected Normal Value


                              1
                              7.47      .7602
                              8.38      .7549
                               8.82
                               0        .7862
                              10.62     .7155
           13.71                        .5479
            -1
0.5     1.0

                              -2



                              -3
                                   -3           -2     -1               0              1        2   3
                                                                     Value




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                                                21ce0e75-aa7e-4d06-9dba-9320395363bd.xls




ournal of Conflict Resolution 1988 32(4):776-812.



             STOCKS WORKDAYS           VACATION TEMP             BEGIN       PULLOUT TEMPMEDSATURDAYFRIDAY
               448.06       1                             33.2           0         0       2      0          0
               436.37       1                             33.6           0         0       2      0          0
               426.88       1                             30.6           0         0       2      0          0
               428.08       1                               29           0         0       2      0          0
                            0          Fri                29.6           0         0       2      0          1
                            0          Sat                29.5           0         0       2      1          0
               429.81       1                             26.2           0         0       1      0          0
                428.3       1                             27.2           0         0       1      0          0
               430.08       1                             25.6           0         0       1      0          0
                            0          Aug 10             26.5           0         0       1      0          0
               453.08       1                             28.5           0         0       2      0          0
                            0          Fri                29.2           0         0       2      0          1
                            0          Sat                28.3           0         0       2      1          0
               478.93       1                             29.3           0         0       2      0          0
               473.98       1                               28           0         0       2      0          0
               460.46       1                             27.2           0         0       1      0          0
               448.16       1                             26.3           0         0       1      0          0
               448.66       1                             26.8           0         0       1      0          0
                            0          Fri                27.2           0         0       1      0          1
                            0          Sat                  25           0         0       1      1          0
               451.41       1                             25.5           0         0       1      0          0
               458.21       1                             26.3           0         0       1      0          0
               459.38       1                             27.3           0         0       2      0          0
               456.61       1                             27.6           0         0       2      0          0
               455.58       1                             26.6           0         0       1      0          0
                            0          Fri                26.6           0         0       1      0          1
                            0          Sat                26.6           0         0       1      1          0
               453.81       1                             26.8           1         0       1      0          0
               448.73       1                               28           1         0       2      0          0
               450.51       1                               30           1         0       2      0          0
               450.09       1                             36.6           1         0       2      0          0
               446.58       1                             28.8           1         0       2      0          0
                            0          Fri                  28           1         0       2      0          1
                            0          Sat                29.8           1         1       2      1          0
               440.42       1                             28.5           1         1       2      0          0
               430.72       1                             30.3           1         1       2      0          0
               425.63       1                             27.6           1         1       2      0          0
                            0          Pre Rosh           24.2           1         1       1      0          0
                            0          Rosh Has           26.2           1         1       1      0          0
                            0          Fri                  27           1         1       1      0          1
                            0          Sat                27.7           1         1       2      1          0
               413.76       1                             27.3           1         1       2      0          0
               402.98       1                             27.3           1         1       2      0          0
               399.97       1                             26.3           1         1       1      0          0
               404.84       1                             27.3           1         1       2      0          0
               412.88       1                             28.2           1         1       2      0          0


                                                                    37                                       3/9/2012
                                                21ce0e75-aa7e-4d06-9dba-9320395363bd.xls


                                   0   Fri                27.7         0        1          2          0          1
                                   0   Yom Kipp           27.2         0        1          1          1          0
               422.72              1                      25.3         0        1          1          0          0
               426.59              1                      26.4         0        1          1          0          0
               433.61              1                      26.7         0        1          1          0          0
                                   0   Pre Succ           24.6         0        1          1          0          0
                                   0   Succot             24.8         0        1          1          0          0
                                   0   Fri                23.6         0        1          1          0          1
                                   0   Sat                  23         0        1          1          1          0
               444.12              1                      24.7         0        1          1          0          0
                                   0   Succot             28.2         0        1          2          0          0
                                   0   Succot             26.5         0        1          1          0          0
                                   0   Succot             27.7         0        1          2          0          0
                                   0   Succot             25.2         0        1          1          0          0
                                   0   Succot             25.6         0        1          1          0          1

             439.4286                               27.481967
               19.145                                2.301051




However the section containing Z-transformed variables was OK, so the variables TM group and Mood were recovered from that.




                                                                  38                                            3/9/2012
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                  39                       3/9/2012
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                  40                       3/9/2012
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                  41                       3/9/2012
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                  42                       3/9/2012
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                  43                       3/9/2012
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                  44                       3/9/2012
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                  45                       3/9/2012
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                  46                       3/9/2012
                     21ce0e75-aa7e-4d06-9dba-9320395363bd.xls




SUNDAY FRISAT   RANDOM1RANDOM2RANDOM3
      0       0       0      0      1
      0       0       0      1      2
      0       0       1      1      1
      0       0       0      0      2
      0       1       0      1      1
      0       1       0      0      1
      1       0       0      1      2
      0       0       1      1      2
      0       0       0      1      1
      0       0       1      1      1
      0       0       1      0      2
      0       1       0      0      1
      0       1       1      1      2
      1       0       0      1      2
      0       0       0      1      1
      0       0       1      0      2
      0       0       0      0      2
      0       0       1      1      2
      0       1       0      0      2
      0       1       1      0      1
      1       0       1      1      1
      0       0       0      0      1
      0       0       0      0      1
      0       0       1      1      2
      0       0       1      0      1
      0       1       0      1      1
      0       1       0      0      2
      1       0       0      1      2
      0       0       1      0      2
      0       0       0      0      2
      0       0       0      0      2
      0       0       0      0      1
      0       1       1      0      1
      0       1       1      1      1
      1       0       1      0      2
      0       0       1      0      1
      0       0       0      0      1
      0       0       1      1      1
      0       0       1      1      1
      0       1       1      1      2
      0       1       1      1      2
      1       0       1      1      1
      0       0       0      0      1
      0       0       0      1      1
      0       0       1      0      2
      0       0       0      1      1


                                       47                       3/9/2012
                               21ce0e75-aa7e-4d06-9dba-9320395363bd.xls


                       0   1   0       1         2
                       0   1   0       1         2
                       1   0   1       0         2
                       0   0   0       1         2
                       0   0   1       1         2
                       0   0   1       1         2
                       0   0   0       0         2
                       0   1   1       0         2
                       0   1   1       0         1
                       1   0   1       0         1
                       0   0   1       1         1
                       0   0   1       1         2
                       0   0   0       1         2
                       0   0   0       0         1
                       0   1   0       0         1




recovered from that.




                                                 48                       3/9/2012

								
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