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Page A-1
NORTH CAROLINA
Resident Annual Fishing
The following chart presents the various prices the State could have charged for licenses in 2004 and the po
have been earned at each price point. The actual price charged in 2004 is indicated. Revenue would be max
point where the revenue line reaches its peak.
Predicted North Carolina Resident Annual State Fishing License
Sales and Revenue - 2004
$3,000,000
$2,500,000
$2,000,000
Total revenue
$1,500,000
$1,000,000
Revenue
$500,000
Licenses Sold
$0
$12 $13 $14 $15 $16 $17 $18 $19 $20 $21 $22 $23 $24 $25 $26
License price (including agent fees)
The revenue projections in the above chart are based on a statistical model that considers historical annual l
factors driving sales (weather, population, income, and more). The accuracy of the model is demonstrated b
for previous years were projected based on the factors experienced each year. This chart indicates the mode
reliable in projecting how much sales (units) and revenues could change if prices were adjusted.
North Carolina Resident Annual State Fishing License Sales
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Page A-2
NORTH CAROLINA
Res. Ann. Comprehensive Fishing
The following chart presents the various prices the State could have charged for licenses in 2004 and the po
have been earned at each price point. The actual price charged in 2004 is indicated. Revenue would be max
point where the revenue line reaches its peak.
Predicted North Carolina Resident Comprehensive License
Sales and Revenue - 2004
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
Total revenue $600,000
$400,000
Revenue
$200,000
Licenses Sold
$0
$17 $18 $19 $20 $21 $22 $23 $24 $25 $26 $27 $28 $29 $30
License price (including agent fees)
The revenue projections in the above chart are based on a statistical model that considers historical annual l
factors driving sales (weather, population, income, and more). The accuracy of the model is demonstrated b
for previous years were projected based on the factors experienced each year. This chart indicates the mode
reliable in projecting how much sales (units) and revenues could change if prices were adjusted.
North Carolina Resident Comprehensive License Sales
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Page A-3
NORTH CAROLINA
Resident/NonRes Trout
The following chart presents the various prices the State could have charged for licenses in 2004 and the po
have been earned at each price point. The actual price charged in 2004 is indicated. Revenue would be max
point where the revenue line reaches its peak.
Predicted North Carolina Trout Fishing License
Sales and Revenue - 2004
$200,000
$180,000
$160,000
$140,000
Total revenue
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
Current Price
$40,000
$20,000
$0
$5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 $11 $12 $13
License price (including agent fees)
The revenue projections in the above chart are based on a statistical model that considers historical annual l
factors driving sales (weather, population, income, and more). The accuracy of the model is demonstrated b
for previous years were projected based on the factors experienced each year. This chart indicates the mode
reliable in projecting how much sales (units) and revenues could change if prices were adjusted.
North Carolina Trout Fishing License Sales
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Page A-4
NORTH CAROLINA
Non-Resident Annual
The following chart presents the various prices the State could have charged for licenses in 2004 and the po
have been earned at each price point. The actual price charged in 2004 is indicated. Revenue would be max
point where the revenue line reaches its peak.
Predicted North Carolina Nonresident State Fishing License
Predicted North Carolina Nonresident State Fishing License
Sales and Revenue - 2004
$1,200,000
$1,000,000
$800,000
Revenue
Licenses Sold
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$0
$28 $30 $32 $34 $36 $38 $40 $42 $44 $46 $48
The revenue projections in the above chart are based on a statistical model that considers historical annual l
factors driving sales (weather, population, income, and more). The accuracy of the model is demonstrated b
for previous years were projected based on the factors experienced each year. This chart indicates the mode
reliable in projecting how much sales (units) and revenues could change if prices were adjusted.
North Carolina NonResident State Fishing License Sales
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
5,000
0
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Page A-5
NORTH CAROLINA
Non-Resident 1 Day
The following chart presents the various prices the State could have charged for licenses in 2004 and the po
have been earned at each price point. The actual price charged in 2004 is indicated. Revenue would be max
point where the revenue line reaches its peak.
Predicted North Carolina Nonresident 1-day Fishing License
Sales and Revenue - 2004
$160,000
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000 Revenue
Licenses Sold
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0
$7 $8 $9 $10 $11 $12 $13 $14 $15 $16 $17
The revenue projections in the above chart are based on a statistical model that considers historical annual l
factors driving sales (weather, population, income, and more). The accuracy of the model is demonstrated b
for previous years were projected based on the factors experienced each year. This chart indicates the mode
reliable in projecting how much sales (units) and revenues could change if prices were adjusted.
North Carolina NonResident 1-day Fishing License Sales
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Page A-6
NORTH CAROLINA
Non-Resident 3 Day
The following chart presents the various prices the State could have charged for licenses in 2004 and the po
have been earned at each price point. The actual price charged in 2004 is indicated. Revenue would be max
point where the revenue line reaches its peak.
Predicted North Carolina Nonresident 3-day Fishing License
Sales and Revenue - 2004
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
$12 $13 $14 $15 $16 $17 $18 $19 $20 $21 $22
The revenue projections in the above chart are based on a statistical model that considers historical annual l
factors driving sales (weather, population, income, and more). The accuracy of the model is demonstrated b
for previous years were projected based on the factors experienced each year. This chart indicates the mode
reliable in projecting how much sales (units) and revenues could change if prices were adjusted.
North Carolina NonResident 3-day Fishing License Sales
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Page B
NORTH CAROLINA
How Much Should We Increase Prices?
New license prices are not selected based on the price point that maximizes an agency's revenue. Agencies
decrease in the number of licenses sold that that typically results from price hikes. Some people refuse to pu
hikes, some of whom might elect to stop fishing altogether. These lost anglers represent lost future revenue
In addition, each agency must weigh the political ramifications of proposing new license prices. These cons
state-to-state and year-by-year. Therefore, this analysis only focuses on the prices points that maximize rev
agency to combine this information with its own knowledge of state-specific political issues when selecting
The charts below present the potential revenues the State may receive from three pricing scenarios:
* Scenario A presents the current license prices as of 2004, with the expected annual revenues in the low
* Scenario B: the lower right corner presents the expected revenues if all license prices were uniformly r
* Scenario C presents the potential additional revenues the State could receive if each license was raised
optimal price point as presented on the graphs on the previous pages.
Historically, many states have used Scenario B when raising prices, based on a lack of information showing
Scenario C shows that by raising prices based on the models developed in this report, the resulting revenue
significantly greater.
Scenario A: Keep prices at current lev
License type Price Sales
Resident
Resident Annual Fishing $15.00 188,116
Fishing
Resident Annual Comprehensive$20.00 54,583
Resident/NonRes Trout $10.00 19,595
Non-resident
Non-Resident Annual $30.00 30,428
Non-Resident 1 Day $10.00 14,360
Non-Resident 3 Day $15.00 18,618
TOTAL
Scenario B: Increase all prices $2.00
License type Price Sales
Resident
Resident Annual Fishing $17.00 172,678
Fishing
Resident Annual Comprehensive$22.00 49,696
Resident/NonRes Trout $12.00 13,923
Non-resident
Non-Resident Annual $32.00 29,520
Non-Resident 1 Day $12.00 12,153
Non-Resident 3 Day $17.00 17,471
TOTAL
Scenario C: Optimal pricing
License type Price Sales
Resident
Resident Annual Fishing $19.50 153,382
Fishing
Resident Annual Comprehensive$21.25 51,528
Resident/NonRes Trout $8.50 23,850
Non-resident
Non-Resident Annual $49.00 21,805
Non-Resident 1 Day $11.50 12,705
Non-Resident 3 Day $23.50 13,740
TOTAL
Page C-1
Variable Definiti
Resident annual fishing license:
P_state_R Purchase price of an annual sta
Pop Population
Year Year
PersInc Statewide average per-capita pe
AprRain Statewide average April rainfal
Resident comprehensive license:
P_comp_R Purchase price of a comprehens
Pop Population
Year Year
PersInc Statewide average per-capita pe
AprRain Statewide average April rainfal
FebTemp Statewide average February tem
Resident/NonResident annual trout license:
P_trt_R_NR Purchase price of a comprehens
Pop Population
Year Year
SEPersInc Southeast region average per-ca
RealGas Statewide average price of gaso
MarTemp Statewide average March tempe
NonResident annual fishing license:
P_state_NR Purchase price of an annual non
Year Year
SEPersInc Southeast region average per-ca
SC_F_AN_NR Purchase price of annual non-re
JunTemp Statewide average June temper
NonResident 1-day fishing license:
P_1d _NR Purchase price of a 1-day nonre
Year Year
SEPersInc Southeast region average per-ca
TN_3d_f_NR Purchase price of a 3-day non-r
AugRain Statewide average August rainf
NonResident 3-day fishing license:
P_3d _NR Purchase price of a 3-day nonre
Year Year
SEPersInc Southeast region average per-ca
TN_3d_f_NR Purchase price of a 3-day non-r
AugRain Statewide average August rainf
Page C-2
NORTH CAROLINA
Miscellaneous Information and Compariso
I. Years Required for License Sales (units) to Recover After a Price Hike:
License Type: Increase #1 Recovered in:
Resident Annual Fishing 1988 2 years
Res. Ann. Comprehensive Fishing no price changes
Resident/NonRes Trout 1988 10 years
Non-Resident Annual 1988 2 years
Non-Resident 1 Day 1988 not recovered
Non-Resident 3 Day 1988 8 years
II. Factors Having the Greatest Effects on License Sales:
License Type: Factor: Magnitude:
Resident Annual Fishing Population For every 100 increase in population, 15 less
Price If the price rises by $1, then 7,718 less license
Personal Income For every dollar increase in average personal in
Rainfall An increase by 1 inch in statewide average Apr
Year With each additional year, 15,273 more license
Res. Ann. Comprehensive Fishing Population For every 100 increase in population, 12 more
Price If the price rises by $1, then 2,443 less license
Personal Income For every dollar increase in statewide average
Rainfall An increase by 1 inch in statewide average Apr
Temperature An increase by 1 degree in statewide average F
Year With each additional year, 14,462 less licenses
Resident/NonRes Trout Population For every 100 increase in population, 4.5 more
Price If the price rises by $1, then 2,836 less license
Personal Income With each $1 increase in the Southeast's avera
Gas Prices An increase staewide average gas prices by 50
Temperature An increase by 1 degree in statewide average M
Year With each additional year, 14,795 less licenses
Non-Resident Annual
Price If the price rises by $1, then 453 less licenses
Personal Income For every dollar increase in Southeast average
SC Licenses With the initiation of the South Carolina Non Re
Temperature An increase by 1 degree in statewide average J
Year With each additional year, 695 less licenses ar
Non-Resident 1 Day Price If the price rises by $1, then 1,103 less license
Personal Income With each $1 increase in the Southeast's avera
TN Licenses With the initiation of the Tennessee Non Resid
Rainfall An increase by 1 inch in statewide average Aug
Year With each additional year, 600 less licenses ar
Non-Resident 3 Day Price If the price rises by $1, then 573 less licenses
Personal Income For every dollar increase in Southeast average
TN Licenses With the initiation of the Tennessee Non Resid
Rainfall An increase by 1 inch in statewide average Aug
Year With each additional year, 395 less licenses ar
III. Percentage of State Residents Buying Each License Type:
2003 1993
NORTH CAROLINA State Population 8,407,248 6,947,412
Resident Annual Fishing 1.8% 2.3%
Res. Ann. Comp. Fishing 0.7% 0.3%
Resident/NonRes Trout 0.3% 0.0%
Non-Resident Annual 0.3% 0.2%
Non-Resident 1 Day 0.2% 0.2%
Non-Resident 3 Day 0.2% 0.2%
IV. State Prices Compared to Regional Averages for Similar Licenses
License Types Current Regional Average
Resident Annual Fishing $15.00 $12.63
Res. Ann. Comp. Fishing $20.00 $22.81
Resident/NonRes Trout $10.00 $10.25
Non-Resident Annual $30.00 $30.31
Non-Resident 1 Day $10.00 $6.83
Non-Resident 3 Day $15.00 $13.60
V. Miscellaneous Comparison To Other States in the Region:
State in Region Senior Price Senior Age Junior
Alabama 65
Florida free 65
Georgia free 65
Kentucky $5.00 65
Mississippi free 65
South Carolina free 65
Tennessee $11.00 65 $8.00
Average $2.29 65 $8.00
al Fishing
ses in 2004 and the potential revenue that would
Revenue would be maximized at the price
tate Fishing License
250,000
200,000
No. of licenses sold
150,000
100,000
50,000
Licenses Sold
0
$25 $26 $27 $28 $29 $30
ders historical annual license sales and the major
odel is demonstrated below, where sales
art indicates the model used was reasonably
ng License Sales
Actual
Predicted
1999 2001 2003
ensive Fishing
ses in 2004 and the potential revenue that would
Revenue would be maximized at the price
rehensive License
70,000
60,000
50,000
No. of licenses sold
40,000
30,000
20,000
Revenue
Licenses Sold 10,000
0
$30 $31 $32 $33 $34 $35
ders historical annual license sales and the major
odel is demonstrated below, where sales
art indicates the model used was reasonably
e License Sales
Actual
Predicted
2000 2001 2002 2003
Res Trout
ses in 2004 and the potential revenue that would
Revenue would be maximized at the price
shing License
40,000
Revenue 35,000
Licenses Sold
30,000
No. of licenses sold
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
$13 $14 $15 $16
ders historical annual license sales and the major
odel is demonstrated below, where sales
art indicates the model used was reasonably
ense Sales
Actual
Predicted
2000 2001 2002 2003
Annual
ses in 2004 and the potential revenue that would
Revenue would be maximized at the price
te Fishing License
te Fishing License
35,000
30,000
25,000
Revenue
20,000
Licenses Sold
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
$48 $50 $52 $54
ders historical annual license sales and the major
odel is demonstrated below, where sales
art indicates the model used was reasonably
ng License Sales
Actual
Predicted
1999 2001 2003
nt 1 Day
ses in 2004 and the potential revenue that would
Revenue would be maximized at the price
ay Fishing License
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
Revenue 12,000
Licenses Sold
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
$17 $18 $19 $20
ders historical annual license sales and the major
odel is demonstrated below, where sales
art indicates the model used was reasonably
g License Sales
Actual
Predicted
2000 2001 2002 2003
nt 3 Day
ses in 2004 and the potential revenue that would
Revenue would be maximized at the price
ay Fishing License
25,000
20,000
Revenue
Licenses Sold
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
$22 $23 $24 $25
ders historical annual license sales and the major
odel is demonstrated below, where sales
art indicates the model used was reasonably
g License Sales
Actual
Predicted
Predicted
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Increase Prices?
y's revenue. Agencies must be sensitive to the
me people refuse to purchase licenses after price
ent lost future revenues and lost excise tax dollars.
nse prices. These considerations always vary
nts that maximize revenue, and relies on the
issues when selecting new license prices.
ing scenarios:
ual revenues in the lower right corner.
rices were uniformly raised $2 each.
ach license was raised to its
f information showing any better. However,
the resulting revenue increases can be
prices at current levels
Revenue
$ 2,652,430
$ 1,026,167 `
$ 184,197
$ 858,062
$ 134,980
$ 262,521
$ 5,118,357
ease all prices $2.00 Revenue
Revenue Change vs.
$ 2,759,401 4.0%
$ 1,027,704 0.1%
$ 157,050 -14.7%
$ 887,964 3.5%
$ 137,088 1.6%
$ 279,182 6.3%
$ 5,248,389 2.5%
Optimal pricing Revenue
Revenue Change vs. Price Decrease?
$ 2,811,489 6.0% no
$ 1,029,282 0.3% no
$ 190,560 3.5% yes
$ 1,004,351 17.0% no
$ 137,339 1.7% no
$ 303,526 15.6% no
$ 5,476,547 7.0%
Variable Definitions
t Statistics
e price of an annual state fishing license 0.0315
0.0219
0.0224
de average per-capita personal income 0.0517
de average April rainfall (inches) 0.0268
t Statistics
e price of a comprehensive license 0.0154
0.0007
0.0015
de average per-capita personal income 0.5596
de average April rainfall (inches) 0.0932
de average February temperature 0.0025
t Statistics
e price of a comprehensive license 0.0138
0.0043
<.0001
ast region average per-capita personal income 0.0047
de average price of gasoline 0.0544
de average March temperature 0.0294
t Statistics
e price of an annual nonresident state fishing license 0.0162
0.1656
ast region average per-capita personal income 0.0025
e price of annual non-resident fishing license in South Carolina 0.2131
de average June temperature 0.288
t Statistics
e price of a 1-day nonresident state fishing license <.0001
0.0179
ast region average per-capita personal income 0.0121
e price of a 3-day non-resident fishing license in Tennessee 0.0147
de average August rainfall (inches) 0.0216
t Statistics
e price of a 3-day nonresident state fishing license <.0001
0.2477
ast region average per-capita personal income 0.0404
e price of a 3-day non-resident fishing license in Tennessee 0.1112
de average August rainfall (inches) 0.0493
n and Comparisons to Other States
in population, 15 less licenses are sold
then 7,718 less licenses are sold
e in average personal income, 13 more licenses are sold
n statewide average April rainfall results in 4,235 less licenses sold
ar, 15,273 more licenses are sold
in population, 12 more licenses are sold
then 2,443 less licenses are sold
e in statewide average per-capita personal income, 1 less license is sold
n statewide average April rainfall results in 551 more licenses sold
e in statewide average February temperature results in 760 more licenses sold
ar, 14,462 less licenses are sold
in population, 4.5 more licenses are sold
then 2,836 less licenses are sold
n the Southeast's average per-capita personal income, 6 more licenses are sold
verage gas prices by 50 cents results in 589 less licenses sold
e in statewide average March temperature results in 562 more licenses sold
ar, 14,795 less licenses are sold
then 453 less licenses are sold
e in Southeast average per-capita personal income, 4.5 more licenses are sold
South Carolina Non Resident license, 139 less licenses are sold
e in statewide average June temperature results in 346 less licenses sold
ar, 695 less licenses are sold
then 1,103 less licenses are sold
n the Southeast's average per-capita personal income,1.7 more licenses are sold
Tennessee Non Resident 3 day license, 563 more licenses are sold
n statewide average August rainfall results in 290 less licenses sold
ar, 600 less licenses are sold
then 573 less licenses are sold
e in Southeast average per-capita personal income, 2 more licenses are sold
Tennessee Non Resident 3 day license, 495 more licenses are sold
n statewide average August rainfall results in 351 less licenses sold
ar, 395 less licenses are sold
1983
6,077,056
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Percent Diff:
18.8%
-12.3%
-2.4%
-1.0%
46.4%
10.3%
Youth age Disability Notes
16 $1.00 Seniors: lifetime license=$9.50; Pier & trip=$6
16 Vessel and pier licenses available for saltwater.
16 The senior license is a lifetime license
16 $5.00 Has a couples license.
16 free
16 free
13 - 15 $10.00 Minor=13-15 years old
16 $2.67
