wshop_migration_s08_anh_quynh_bich by xiuliliaofz

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									Development on the Move

 Vietnam Country Study


    Dang Nguyen Anh
   Nguyen Ngoc Quynh
      Tran Thi Bich

    Kuwait, February 2009
                     Outline

   Sampling technique, Population and sample,
    and Data
   Preliminary findings
   Stakeholder interviews
   Plan for analysis
      Section I.

 Sampling technique
Population and sample
         Data
                 Sampling technique
   PPS method is applied to select provinces and PSUs
   6 provinces are selected: 2 in the north, 2 in the centre,
    and 2 in the south.
   15 PSUs are sampled in each selected province, making
    the total of 90 surveyed PSUs.
   Based on the list of household (HH) categorised into 4
    types: absent, returned, mix of absent and returned, and
    non-migrant HH, the systematic sampling technique is
    used to select HH for each PSU.
   Approximate 250 HH are surveyed in each province. To
    keep the fieldwork loads equalised across provinces, the
    total number of each type of HH surveyed varies across
    PSUs and provinces due to the scarcity of returned
    migrant HH in some provinces.
        Population and sample distribution by provinces
                          Population structure                              Sample structure


               Non-     Absent-   Returned    Mix-              Non-     Absent-   Returned    Mix-
              migrant   migrant    migrant   migrant           migrant   migrant   migrant    migrant
Province        HH        HH         HH        HH      Total     HH        HH         HH        HH      Total

North         29811      1206        676        106    31799      159       147        162        36      504
Ha Noi         6420        612       350         84    7466         77       67         84        26      254
Hung Yen     23391         594       326         22    24333        82       80         78        10      250
Centre       16567       2021        468        138    19194      165       186        124        30      505
Nghe An        8411      1646        376        121    10554        82       78         77        16      253
Da Nang        8156        375         92        17    8640         83      108         47        14      252
South        21615         755       143         37    22550      160       180        124        35      499
HCMC           5996        167         86        21    6270         80       82         68        19      249
Can Tho      15619         588         57        16    16280        80       98         56        16      250
Total        67993       3982       1287        281    73543      484       513        410       101    1508
                                    Data
   A specific program allowing logical checks of data is
    developed for data input. The data is, then, exported into
    10 spreadsheets in Excel.
   Compared to the template questionnaire, there are some
    changes in the Vietnamese version
       Add questions collecting detailed information on individual job
        which specifies occupation, industry, and sectors (private or
        government)
       Add/modify some opinion questions on migration in Section 7
       Add two subsections to Section 8
            Section 8F: collecting information on household risks
            Section 8G: collecting information on changes in economic activities
             of households
       Add subsection 9K into Section 9 to collect information on
        occupational changes of returnees
                            Data - Household profile

                           Distribution of households by urban/rural area


                                                                              677
               Total
                                                                                          831


                                        210
    Non-migrant HHs
                                                  274


                                        200
Returned-migrant HHs
                                         210


                                            234
 Absent-migrant HHs
                                                  279


                           33
  Mixed-migrant HHs
                                68


                       0        100   200         300   400     500     600   700   800         900

                                                        Urban   Rural
                          Data – Individual profile

                        Distribution of individuals by gender

                                                                                  3,744
            Total
                                                                             3,461


                                                                     3,081
    Non-migrants
                                                             2,720


                           448
  Absent migrants
                         338


                        215
Returned migrants
                           403


                    0     500    1000   1500   2000   2500    3000      3500       4000

                                          Male    Female
    Data – Household profile by HH head (1)
        Distribution of households by gender of household head


                                                      508
               Total                                                        999

                           32
   Mixed-migrant HHs         69

                                  125
Returned-migrant HHs                          285

                                        207
 Absent-migrant HHs                           305

                                  144
    Non-migrant HHs                             340

                       0          200           400     600     800       1,000   1,200

           Male headed households               Female headed housholds
  Data – Household profile by HH head (2)
                  Distribution of HHs by educational level of HH head

                                                                  No degree
                  Non-migrant HHs
                                                                  Primary school
                       1%    7%     1%                            Lower secondary school
                  5%                      9% 0%
      14%                                                         Upper secondary school
                                                0%
                                                                  Short-term technical worker
                                                                  Long-term technical worker
                                                     16%
                                                                  Professional secondary shool
                                                                  Junior college diploma
                                                                  Bachelor's
                                          22%                     Master
                                                                  Doctor
            25%
  Migrant HHs                                                 All HHs
       3%1%       5%    2%    9%                             2%            9%
15%                                 1%
                                    0%               4% 6%
                                                       1%                          1%
                                                                                   0%
                                                                                            16%
                                         16% 14%




28%                                                                                        21%
                                  20%
                                                       26%
         Data – Household profile by HH head (3)
                                    Housework activities of household head

                                                          Other activities     4.84%
                                                       Community works       2.26%
                            Social occassions, visiting family and friends                     20.97%
                                                      Resting, recreation                                      53.88%
                                                   Caring for the sick/old   2.06%
                                                       Caring for children            11.61%
                                Shopping for foods and household items                              28.73%
Growing or collecting food for the household to eat, looking after animals      6.77%
                                                      Collecting firewood     3.78%
                                                         Collecting water    1.92%
                                                          Home repairing                 17.12%
                 Dish washing, house cleaning, clothes washing, ironing                                         55.08%
                                                                 Cooking                                     50.17%

                                                                       0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%
    Section II.

Preliminary findings
Housing condition by HH groups
Housing condition by HH groups (cont.)
                           Using public services

                      Percentage of Households Using Public Services

             120.00
             100.00
Percentage




              80.00
                                                                            At present
              60.00
                                                                            5 years ago
              40.00
              20.00
               0.00
                       Electricity   Gas        Safe   Sewerage Garbage
                                              drinking  system collection
                                               water
                                           Public services
         Using financial services

       Absent migrant household   Returned migrant household
200

150

100

50

0
      Non-migrant household
200
                                   # of HH having account in bank
150

100
                                   # of HH having account
50                                 in building society
0
                                 Household expenditure
                                 Mean expenditure in the last 12 months by household types

              8000.00
              7000.00
              6000.00                                                                                      Total
Thous.VND




              5000.00
                                                                                                           Absent
              4000.00
              3000.00                                                                                      Returned
              2000.00                                                                                      Non-migrant
              1000.00
                 0.00
                         Health care per   Education per     Entertainment     Saving      Debt payment
                             capita           capita          per capita
                                                           Expenditure items




                               Mean expenditure in the last 5 years by household types

               100,000.00

                80,000.00
                                                                                                          Total
  Thous.VND




                60,000.00                                                                                 Absent
                40,000.00                                                                                 Returned
                                                                                                          Non-migrant
                20,000.00

                        0.00
                                 Durable asset and                  Home          Purchase and repair
                                   large hh item           repairs/improvements        vehicles
                                                           Expenditure items
Having business activity
Scale of business
 Receiving remittance and having businesses
             Hav ing business * Receiv ing remittances * Household type Crosstabulation

Househol                                                                Recei vi ng remi ttances
d type                                                                    Yes             No       T otal
Absent        Havi ng     Yes     Count                                      125              63       188
m igrant      busi ness           % wi thi n Recei vi ng remi ttances
                                                                           33.1%        46.7%       36.6%

                          No      Count                                       253           72        325
                                  % wi thi n Recei vi ng remi ttances
                                                                           66.9%        53.3%       63.4%
              T otal              Count                                       378          135        513
                                  % wi thi n Recei vi ng remi ttances
                                                                         100.0%        100.0%      100.0%
Returned      Havi ng     Yes     Count                                       112           56        168
m igrant      busi ness           % wi thi n Recei vi ng remi ttances
                                                                           34.5%        30.1%       32.9%
                          No      Count                                       213          130        343
                                  % wi thi n Recei vi ng remi ttances
                                                                           65.5%        69.9%       67.1%
              T otal              Count                                       325          186        511
                                  % wi thi n Recei vi ng remi ttances
                                                                         100.0%        100.0%      100.0%

Non-m i gr    Havi ng     Yes     Count                                        20          173        193
ant           busi ness           % wi thi n Recei vi ng remi ttances
                                                                           52.6%        39.1%       40.1%

                          No      Count                                        18          270        288
                                  % wi thi n Recei vi ng remi ttances
                                                                           47.4%        60.9%       59.9%

              T otal              Count                                        38          443        481
                                  % wi thi n Recei vi ng remi ttances
                                                                         100.0%        100.0%      100.0%
                                 Destination countries
          Top 10 destination countries of                        Top 10 destination countries of
              returned migrants (% )                                  absent migrants (% )


            CANADA                                                   CANADA


               LAOS                                                    JAPAN

CZECH REPUBLIC (THE)                                     CZECH REPUBLIC (THE)

          GERMANY                                                 AUSTRALIA

              JAPAN                                                GERMANY

             KOREA                                                    RUSSIA

             RUSSIA                                                MALAYSIA

      UNITED STATES                                                   KOREA

            TAIWAN                                                   TAIWAN

          MALAYSIA                                             UNITED STATES


                   0.00   5.00   10.00   15.00   20.00                      0.00   10.00   20.00   30.00   40.00
                                        Reasons for departure

                                       Other
Hoped to find a better job after come back
 Went to live with family members abroad
                         Left to get married
           Left with other family members
   Have more freedom to do what wanted
      Didn’t feel safe living in this country
            Save money and send it back
                         Earn more money
            Learn other useful new skills
         Learn to speak another language
             Study and get qualifications
               Easier to get a steady job

                                          0.00%   10.00%   20.00%      30.00%   40.00%    50.00%

                                                   Returned migrants    Absent migrants
                                    Reasons for return
                                            Other
                  Atractive government schemes
  Back to set up new business or start new job
            Missed the way of life in this country
      This is my country and I feel I belong here
                   Back to be with my family here
   Someone in my family needed me to be here
                             Came back to retire
  Life in destination country wasn’t as expected
                                    Was deported
Back voluntarily as wasn’t legally allowed to stay
  Relationship in the destination country ended
  The person live with abroad also came home
                            Bonded to come back
                    Study course abroad finished
        Always intended to go back after finish a
                 Earn a certain amount of money

                                                 0.00   5.00   10.00   15.00   20.00   25.00   30.00
                              Educational achievement

                                     Highest diploma obtained

                     Other
                    Doctor
                    Master
                  Bachelor
     Junior college diploma
                                                                                    Non-migrants
    Prof. Secondery school
                                                                                    Absent migrants
Long-term technical worker
                                                                                    Returned migrants
Short-term technical worker
    Upper secondaryschool
   Lower secondary school
            Primary school
                No degree

                          0.00%   5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00%
                                Family structure
       Non-migrant HHs                   Absent-migrant HHs
                                                                                  Singles

                                                3%    4%                          Couples without children
             2% 2%   7% 5%                                      10%
                                                                        13%       Single parent families
35%                                41%
                                                                                  Couples with children
                                                                                  Extended families

                          49%                                 29%                 Other households




                                         Mixed-migrant HHs                        All HHs
      Returned-migrant HHs
                                               4%    3%    8%                        3% 3%        7%
             5% 1%2% 6%                                           8%                                       8%
                                                                            39%
38%
                                   48%
                                                                      29%
                             48%
                                                                                                           40%
Marital status of migrants and non-migrants
                    Returned migrants

                  1% 2%    5%
                                        25%         Never married
                                                    Married
                                                    Separated
                                                    Divorced
                                                    Widowed

            67%


                      Non-migrants
                           1%
                          1%    6%

                                                    Never married
                                              32%   Married
                                                    Separated
                                                    Divorced

      60%                                           Widowed
                  Opinions by returned migrants (1)

                   Having lived abroad, I am now happier about the way this country is run


               Don’t know              6.55%


        Strongly disagree      3.03%


      Somew hat disagree               6.72%


Neither agree nor disagree                          14.96%


         Somew hat agree                                                    27.06%


           Strongly agree                                                                               41.68%


                       0.00%   5.00%    10.00%   15.00%   20.00%   25.00%    30.00%   35.00%   40.00%    45.00%
                  Opinions by returned migrants (2)
                 Having lived abroad, I now feel we need to make more effort to ensure that
                             men and women are treated equally in this country


               Don’t know      2.52%

        Strongly disagree    2.02%

      Somew hat disagree     2.02%


Neither agree nor disagree        6.05%

         Somew hat agree                         22.35%

           Strongly agree                                                                     65.04%

                       0.00%       10.00%   20.00%   30.00%    40.00%     50.00%     60.00%    70.00%
                      Opinions by returned migrants (3)

                     Having lived abroad, I now feel more strongly that we need to protect
                                     traditional ways of life in this country


               Don’t know      2.52%

        Strongly disagree      2.52%

      Somew hat disagree       2.69%

Neither agree nor disagree      4.20%

         Somew hat agree                             23.19%

           Strongly agree                                                                      64.87%

                       0.00%       10.00%   20.00%      30.00%   40.00%     50.00%    60.00%    70.00%
                        Opinions by returned migrants (4)

                     Having lived abroad, I now feel more strongly that we need to protect
                                      traditional culture in this country


               Don’t know      2.69%

        Strongly disagree      2.69%

      Somew hat disagree     1.68%

Neither agree nor disagree   2.18%

         Somew hat agree                     18.99%

           Strongly agree                                                                      71.76%

                       0.00%      10.00%   20.00%     30.00%   40.00%   50.00%   60.00%   70.00%   80.00%
Section III. Stakeholder interviews

   Interview 30 stakeholders
     Government    officials in National Assembly,
      Ministries, and other government bodies
     Researchers from government institutes and
      local NGOs
     International NGOs
                     Stakeholder opinions
   Mostly agree that main benefits of migration are remittances and
    reducing unemployment pressure
   Negative social impacts override positive impacts
   Bad organization, management and supervision of migration
    processes
   Migration policy and regulation were not linked to research
   Serious problem regarding human trafficking
   Domestic policies that influence migration impacts:
      Agriculture and rural development policies
      Education and training policies
      Family planning and population policies
      Anti-corruption policies
   International policies
      Bilateral agreement
      Cooperation of civil society
     Section IV. Plan for analysis

1.   Poverty reduction
2.   Economic development
3.   Labour market
4.   Social development
5.   Institutions
                           1. Poverty reduction
1.1. Impact of international migration and remittances on poverty
      Comparing Poverty Measures at household level between 2 groups:
       migrant- and non-migrant HHs
            Adjusted poverty headcount ratio
            Adjusted poverty gap
            Adjusted squared poverty gap (FGT index)
     Investigating the relationship between the probability of migration (HH
      has a member migrates) and per capita expenditure
     Examining impacts of international migration and remittances on
      income distribution
            Descriptive statistics of average incomes and income distribution (pre-
             remittance and post-remittance income) of two HH groups
            Econometric model to estimate the impact of remittances on household
             income

                       log( y i )   0  1 H i   2 Ai   3 M i  u
            where: y=income of household i; H=a set of household characteristics;
                   A=number of adults (>25 yrs) in household i;
                   M=represents household with income from migrants
                      1. Poverty reduction

1.2. Impact of international migration and remittances on
   HH living standard
      Statistics on the use of remittances by HH
      HH level estimation on the effect of international migration and
       remittances per capita on household consumption per capita

            ci   0  1 yi   2 H i   3 mi   4 D  ui
            ci   0  1 yi   2 H i   3ri   4 D  ui
    where: c = HH consumption per capita; y = income of household i;
         H = a set of household characteristics; D = destination area;
         m = share or number of migrants in the household;
         r = remittances per capita
                        1. Poverty reduction

1.3. International migration and vulnerability to risk
    Investigating whether migrant HHs are less vulnerable to risk
     compared to non-migrant HHs
    Perfect risk-sharing model

       ci   0  1 yi  d i  H i   M i   ( M i * yi )  ui

    where:   c = HH consumption per capita;
             y = income of household i;
             H = a set of household characteristics;
             d = community dummy (region or commune in Vietnam);
             M = represents household with income from migrants
2. Economic development - Unemployment

2.1. International migration and unemployment
   Qualitative study: evaluates impacts of migration on
    unemployment based on opinions from:
       Stakeholders
       Households
   Quantitative study: uses data at province level on labor migration
    and unemployment from MOLISA to examine whether international
    migration releases unemployment pressure in Vietnam
    2. Economic development - Production

2.1. Migration and economic dependency: evaluates the
     possibility of not working due to receiving remittances
   Qualitative study aggregates opinions from
       Stakeholders
       Households
   Quantitative study is the descriptive statistics using data from the
    HH survey to:
       Compare proportion of unemployed not looking for job between HH
        receiving and not receiving remittances (taking into account location
        and education level of individuals)
       Compare proportion of unemployed not looking for job between
        migrant and non-migrant HH
       Compute proportion of HH not working due to receiving remittances
    2. Economic development - Production
2.2. International migration and human capital
   Brain drain and brain gain
       Qualitative study: human capital “loss and gain” based on opinion
        from stakeholders and households
       Quantitative study:
           Comparison of educational level and distribution of migrants and non-
            migrants in the labour force
           Educational achievements abroad idea and skills acquired abroad by
            returned migrants to assess possible “brain gain
   International migration and the formation of human capital
       Statistics on the use of remittances on education
       Econometric models: impact of migration on education spending

             edui   0  1 yi   2 H i   3mi   4 D  ui

             edui   0  1 yi   2 H i   3ri   4 D  ui
    2. Economic development - Production
2.3 International migration and production expansion
    and/or changing business activities
2.3.1 At household level
    Descriptive statistics: investigates relationship b/w receiving
     remittances or having migrant member and changing business
     activities or opening businesses
    Probit model: examines factors determining the openness of small
     businesses of returned migrant households

                    P  yi  1 xi   G( xi ,  )
        where x is a vector of characteristics of returnees including age, sex,
        education level, experience abroad, … money brought when
        returning, variables related to returnees’ opinions about business
        environment at home country, and PCI – provincial competitiveness
        index to examine impact of government policies on production
        expansion
    2. Economic development - Production
2.3 International migration and production expansion
    and/or changing business activities (cont.)
2.3.2 Multiplier effects at commune level - investigating impacts of
      migration on production expansion at commune level
    Data: commune data from VHLSS for several years and
     aggregate data from the HH survey
    Econometric model:
                 Y   X 1   X 2   PCI
       Y: average growth rate of small businesses of communes over a number
       of years (VHLSS)
       X1: vector of commune variables (VHLSS)
       X2: vector of migration variables (the HH survey)
       PCI: the province competitiveness index
    2. Economic development - Production

2.3 International migration and production expansion
    and/or changing business activities (cont.)
2.3.3 Policy point of view
    The analysis at household and commune levels evaluate the
     impacts of international migration coupled with government
     policies and economic environment on production expansion and
     changing business activities
    This allows to explain why migration promotes economic
     development in some parts but not in others. Based on this, a
     qualitative analysis aggregating opinions from stakeholders and
     households is conducted.
    The results provide suggestions on what local government should
     do to promote economic development.
                       3. Labour market
   Investigating impacts of migration on changes in
    employment structure and occupational opportunities
    of returnees
       Descriptive statistics:
           Investigate changes in employment structure by comparing
            occupation distributions of receiving and not receiving remittance
            household groups; and of migrant and non-migrant household
            groups
           Investigate occupational opportunities of returnees
       Probit model: factors influence changes in occupation of
        returnees
                     P  yi  1 xi   G( xi ,  )
        Where x is a vector of returnees’ characteristics, their opinions about
        business environment, and PCI
       Policy recommendation
                   4. Social development

4.1. Family cohesion
      Statistical information on marital status and family structure of
       migrant and non-migrant individuals and households
4.2. Gender role, changing attitude
      Qualitative: opinions from stakeholders and households
      Quantitative: comparison of housework done by men and
       women in migrant- and non-migrants HHs
4.3. Social capital
      PCA analysis to measure social capital index of two groups
       (migrant and non-migrant HHs) using various social capital
       indicators.
      Differences in the two measures will then suggest impacts of
       migration on social capital
                        5. Institutions


   This examines whether international migration and
    returnees induce pressure on the improvement of public
    services in Vietnam
   The qualitative is conducted to aggregate opinions from:
       Stakeholders; and
       Households and returnees
    Thank you 




Contact: Quynh.Nguyen@anu.edu.au

								
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