Market Simulation Overview Multi-Stage Generating Unit Modeling by dandanhuanghuang

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									Market Simulation Overview
Multi-Stage Generating Unit Modeling




Jim Barber
Market Simulation Coordinator

MSG Market Simulation Web Conference
June 10, 2010
Agenda

   ISO Support
   Issue Management
   Communication Plan
   Market Simulation Approach – Background
   Market Simulation Approach - Improvements
   High Level Timeline
   Simulation Overview
   Structured Scenarios
   Next Steps
                                                Slide 2
ISO Support


   Duration:   June 6 through August 27, 2010
   Hours:      8am – 6pm, PST (Monday through Friday)
   Phone:      (916) 608-7348
   Help Desk: (916) 351-2309 (Connectivity, Endpoints)




                                                          Slide 3
Issue Management


 Submit all issues to the CIDI case management system.
 We anticipate the presence of a flag to indicate that the
  ticket pertains to market simulation. (To be confirmed at
  kickoff teleconference.)




                                                          Slide 4
Communication Plan


 Kick-Off Teleconference Tuesday, June 29 from 13:00 –
  14:00. (Same call-in numbers as below)
 Twice-weekly Checkpoint (Status) Teleconferences
    Mondays (and Tuesday July 6), and Thursdays:
         Time:           13:00-14:00 Pacific
         Domestic        1- (888) 428-4479
         International   1- (612) 234-9960
         Access Code:    N/A

 MSG Market Simulation Documentation posted at:
    http://caiso.com/23ad/23ade49d4790.html


                                                     Slide 5
Market Simulation Approach - Background

 Market Simulation Plan published on ISO portal:
    http://caiso.com/23ad/23ade49d4790.html
 Background
    SIBR Lite connectivity and endpoints available beginning June 21.
    Market Simulation to take place in MAP Stage from July 6 – August 27.
    Simulations to take place on Tuesday – Thursday Trade Dates
    DAM close at 11am, publish results at 2pm
    ISO to capture production bids on non-MSG resources that are submitted
     with web services and input into SIBR MAP Stage as raw bids
    Participants are to create a set of DA and RT seed bids and input through
     web services into MAP Stage SIBR for TD 9-Jul. ISO will capture these
     and input as raw bids into MAP Stage SIBR throughout market simulation.
    Participants will be able to modify the seed bid set throughout market
     simulation, with the exception of units selected for certain structured
     scenarios on those dates.
                                                                           Slide 6
Market Simulation Approach – Background (Continued)

 Settlement Statements will be produced for the following Trade
  Dates:
    Thursdays, July 15, 22, and 29.
    Tuesdays – Thursdays August 3-5, August 10-12, August 17-19, and August 24-
     26
    Statement publication to follow a T+8B calendar
 System Access Information is available on the ISO portal at:
      http://caiso.com/271f/271fcbd45ca60.html




                                                                              Slide 7
Market Simulation Approach - Improvements
 Early walk through of Market Simulation Plan.
 Longer time duration with three days per week of simulation should
   provide a better pace for simulation.
 Provide scenario execution detail earlier.
 More discussion of scenario execution and expected results.
 Seed with raw bids, which will generally be visible to and modifiable
   by participants, as opposed to the clean bid approach used during
   Spring Release 2010.
 We have requested that CIDI be modified to include a market
   simulation flag that the submitter can set. (To be confirmed)
 Implement a CIDI ticket review team to improve speed of
   assignment and appropriateness of assignment.
 Increase SME support for monitoring and ticket resolution.
                                                                       Slide 8
High Level Timeline – July 2010

     Monday          Tuesday                 Wednesday                    Thursday                        Friday
                July 6                   7                        8                             9      Patches after 3pm



     Holiday                   Participants Experiment with Bid Submission                           Seed Bids Captured



12             13                       14                        15                            16
                                                                                                       Patches after 3pm
                Participants Modify Seeded Bids for TDs 7/13 – 7/15


                                                                      TD 15-Jul to be Settled

19             20                       21                        22                            23
                                                                                                       Patches after 3pm
                Participants Modify Seeded Bids for TDs 7/20 – 7/22


                                                                      TD 22-Jul to be Settled

26             27                       28                        29                            30
                                                                                                       Patches after 3pm
                Participants Modify Seeded Bids for TDs 7/27 – 7/29


                                                                      TD 29-Jul to be Settled

                           Settlement Statements published on T+8B schedule
High Level Timeline – August 2010

     Monday                 Tuesday                  Wednesday                   Thursday          Friday
August 2              3                        4                         5                  6    Patches after 3pm
               ISO Execute Structured Scenarios on Selected Units TDs 8/3 – 8/5

            Participants Modify Seeded Bids on Remaining Units for TDs 8/3 – 8/5

                                       TD 3-Aug, 4-Aug and 5-Aug to be Settled

9                      10                       11                       12                 13   Patches after 3pm
              ISO Execute Structured Scenarios on Selected Units TDs 8/10 – 8/12

           Participants Modify Seeded Bids on Remaining Units for TDs 8/10 – 8/12

                                     TD 10-Aug, 11-Aug and 12-Aug to be Settled

16                    17                       18                        19                 20   Patches after 3pm
              ISO Execute Structured Scenarios on Selected Units TDs 8/17 – 8/19

           Participants Modify Seeded Bids on Remaining Units for TDs 8/17 – 8/19

                                     TD 17-Aug, 18-Aug and 19-Aug to be Settled

23                    24                       25                        26                 27   Patches after 3pm
              ISO Execute Structured Scenarios on Selected Units TDs 8/24 – 8/26

           Participants Modify Seeded Bids on Remaining Units for TDs 8/24 – 8/26

                                     TD 24-Aug, 25-Aug and 26-Aug to be Settled

                               Settlement Statements published on T+8B schedule
MSG Market Simulation Overview – July 2010


    Week \ Project                          Multi-Stage Generation Modeling
  21-Jun                                                   SIBR-Lite
  6-Jul                                             Seed Bid Set development
  Trade Dates                                       9-Jul Bid Set to be captured
  Seeded Bids                                                    N/A
  ISO Involvement         Input production Raw Bids for Non-MSG resources, capture 9-Jul Bid Sets
  MP Involvement                Develop Seed Bid Sets for MSG resources, input bids for 9-Jul TD
  12-Jul                 MSG Base Functionality Simulation (e.g. No Outages, Exceptional Dispatches)
  Trade Dates        13-Jul - 15-Jul (TD 15-Jul to be settled, statements to be published on T+8B schedule)
  Seeded Bids               MSG: TD 9-Jul Bid Set, Non-MSG: TD 13-Jul - 15-Jul Raw Production Bids
  ISO Involvement                                Input seed bids, operate markets
  MP Involvement                                Modify bids, observe performance
  19-Jul                 MSG Base Functionality Simulation (e.g. No Outages, Exceptional Dispatches)
  Trade Dates        20-Jul - 22-Jul (TD 22-Jul to be settled, statements to be published on T+8B schedule)
  Seeded Bids               MSG: TD 9-Jul Bid Set, Non-MSG: TD 20-Jul - 22-Jul Raw Production Bids
  ISO Involvement                                Input seed bids, operate markets
  MP Involvement                                Modify bids, observe performance
  26-Jul                 MSG Base Functionality Simulation (e.g. No Outages, Exceptional Dispatches)
  Trade Dates        27-Jul - 29-Jul (TD 29-Jul to be settled, statements to be published on T+8B schedule)
  Seeded Bids               MSG: TD 9-Jul Bid Set, Non-MSG: TD 27-Jul - 29-Jul Raw Production Bids
  ISO Involvement                                Input seed bids, operate markets
  MP Involvement                                Modify bids, observe performance




                                                                                                              Slide 11
MSG Market Simulation Overview – August 2010


    Week \ Project                                            Multi-Stage Generation Modeling
  2-Aug                                                     MSG Structured and Unstructured Simulation
  Trade Dates                     3-Aug - 5-Aug (TD 3-Aug, 4-Aug, 5-Aug to be settled, statements to be published on T+8B schedule)
  Seeded Bids         Select MSG: Per scenario requirements, remaining MSG: TD 9-Jul Bid Set, Non-MSG: TD 3-Aug - 5-Aug Raw Production Bids
  ISO Involvement                                       Input seed bids, execute scenarios, operate markets
  MP Involvement               Modify bids on Non-Selected MSG resources, provide scenario specific support, observe performance
  9-Aug                                                     MSG Structured and Unstructured Simulation
  Trade Dates                 10-Aug - 12-Aug (TD 10-Aug, 11-Aug, 12-Aug to be settled, statements to be published on T+8B schedule)
  Seeded Bids        Select MSG: Per scenario requirements, remaining MSG: TD 9-Jul Bid Set, Non-MSG: TD 10-Aug - 12-Aug Raw Production Bids
  ISO Involvement                                       Input seed bids, execute scenarios, operate markets
  MP Involvement               Modify bids on Non-Selected MSG resources, provide scenario specific support, observe performance
  16-Aug                                                    MSG Structured and Unstructured Simulation
  Trade Dates                 17-Aug - 19-Aug (TD 17-Aug, 18-Aug, 19-Aug to be settled, statements to be published on T+8B schedule)
  Seeded Bids        Select MSG: Per scenario requirements, remaining MSG: TD 9-Jul Bid Set, Non-MSG: TD 17-Aug - 19-Aug Raw Production Bids
  ISO Involvement                                       Input seed bids, execute scenarios, operate markets
  MP Involvement               Modify bids on Non-Selected MSG resources, provide scenario specific support, observe performance
  23-Aug                                                    MSG Structured and Unstructured Simulation
  Trade Dates                 24-Aug - 26-Aug (TD 24-Aug, 25-Aug, 26-Aug to be settled, statements to be published on T+8B schedule)
  Seeded Bids        Select MSG: Per scenario requirements, remaining MSG: TD 9-Jul Bid Set, Non-MSG: TD 24-Aug - 29-Aug Raw Production Bids
  ISO Involvement                                       Input seed bids, execute scenarios, operate markets
  MP Involvement               Modify bids on Non-Selected MSG resources, provide scenario specific support, observe performance




                                                                                                                                        Slide 12
Structured Scenarios

 A subset of MSG resources will be selected for use in structured
   scenarios. (Please provide input on which unit you would like to use,
   if you have a preference. jbarber@caiso.com )
 Structured Scenarios will be executed during the first three weeks in
   August, with possible reruns during the fourth week.
 Meter data estimates will be generated by settlements. MAP Stage
   OMAR will be configured to enable SC submission of meter data
   estimates. (See payment calendar for timing requirements). This
   does not apply to Scenarios 3 and 4, where the ISO will create
   scenario specific meter data and SC submission of meter data for
   the resources selected for these scenarios will be temporarily
   disabled.
 Comments/feedback on scenarios is welcome.
                                                                      Slide 13
Scenarios 1 and 2


Scenario
                                                                        MSG Structured Scenarios
Number
   1       Description        Force RUC commitments of selected MSG Units/Configurations
           ISO Actions        1. Increase RUC commitments of MSG resources through reduction in DA load bids and/or increase in RUC load forecast. (Achieving the
                              desired result may required several different RUC runs, depending on market conditions with non-MSG units and other factors.)
           SC Actions         1. Observe results in CMRI
           Expected Outcome   1. Some MSG resources will have higher commitment levels compared to IFM. Out of these, a subset will be committed to higher
                              configurations.
   2       Description        Execute SLIC outages for selected MSG units/configurations.
           ISO Actions        1. ISO to submit outages for a subset of MSG resources. (The set of resources is constrained in order to avoid creating adverse market
                              conditions due to extensive concurrent outages.)
                              2. Submit SLIC outages on the identified MSG resources. Mix the outages between DAM and Real-time in order to better see the effect on
                              each market.
                              3. ISO to ensure lower priced bids on the outaged/de-rated configurations and higher priced bids on the un-outaged configurations, to
                              make them economic and prove that SLIC is working by not committing to those otherwise economic configurations.
           SC Actions         1. Observe results in CMRI and ADS.
           Expected Outcome   1. For the set of MSG resources, commitment/dispatch levels will not violate SLIC constraints.




                                                                                                                                                          Slide 14
Scenarios 3 and 4


 Scenario
                                                                           MSG Structured Scenarios
 Number
    3       Description        Create simulated telemetry feedback data for a subset of MSG units indicating that some MSG units do not follow dispatch and/or
                               configuration instructions.
            ISO Actions        1. ISO to modify telemetry data reflecting failure to follow dispatch instructions.
                               2. ISO to create meter data to align with scenario.
            SC Actions         1. Observe results in ADS.
                               2. SCs to refrain from submitting meter data.
            Expected Outcome   1. Units are deviating as expected. Configuration determinations should be as expected.
    4       Description        Test a MSG unit delayed start-up causing the unit to miss its first transition in RT from DA awards.
            ISO Actions        1. For DAM-awarded units which are starting up, CAISO to modify telemetry/SE data such that startup profile is delayed by 15 minutes.
                               2. ISO to create meter data to align with scenario.
            SC Actions         1. Observe results in ADS.
                               2. SCs to refrain from submitting meter data.
            Expected Outcome   1. ADS instructions should indicate that startup is delayed (i.e. startup profile to Pmin), as expected.




                                                                                                                                                               Slide 15
Scenarios 5 and 6


 Scenario
                                                                         MSG Structured Scenarios
 Number
    5       Description        Force RT commitments of a subset of MSG units/configurations.
            ISO Actions        1. ISO to run DAM with normal load and demand bids
                               2. ISO to raise the RT load acutal from the RUC estimate in order to increase RT commitment of MSG units/configurations.
                               3. ISO to submit economic bids in RT for higher configuration levels.

            SC Actions         1. Observe results in ADS.
            Expected Outcome   1. Some MSG resources are committed to higher configuration levels.
    6       Description        Force RT de-commitment of a subset of MSG units/configurations.
            ISO Actions        1. ISO to run DAM with normal load and demand bids
                               2. ISO to lower the RT load actual from the RUC estimate in order to decrease RT commitment of MSG units/configurations.
                               3. ISO to submit economic bids in RT for lower configuration levels.
                               4. ISO to lower self-schedule values on same resources, allowing commitment to lower levels.
            SC Actions         1. Observe results in ADS.
            Expected Outcome   1. Some MSG resources are committed to lower configuration levels.




                                                                                                                                                          Slide 16
Scenarios 7, 8 and 9


 Scenario
                                                                          MSG Structured Scenarios
 Number
    7       Description        Dispatch Spin Reserve out of contingency.
            ISO Actions        1. ISO to submit spinning reserve bids with contingency flag set to contingency-only.
                               2. ISO to release contingency stack.
                               3. Bias the load forecast upward to ensure most of the bids are dispatched.
            SC Actions         1. Observe results in ADS.
            Expected Outcome   1. Spinning reserve is dispatched.
    8       Description        Validate resources awarded A/S during notification only period of notification/transition period.
            ISO Actions        (To be run concurrently with #7 above)
            SC Actions         1. Observe results in CMRI and ADS.
            Expected Outcome   1. DAM A/S awards are NOT zero'ed out in ADS during the notification-only periods.
    9       Description        Validate A/S buy back (no award for transitions with durations greater than 15 minutes).
            ISO Actions        1. Identify some instances of units where buyback would be expected, usually with transitions that don’t show up in DAM but do show
                               up in RT (transition time between 8 and 29 minutes).
                               2. ISO to submit economic bids in DAM for A/S for these units.
                               3. In DAM, buy greater than normal amounts of A/S so that many SC's can observe results.
                               4. In DAM try to adjust demand bids and RUC forecast to allow for a significant variation in generation, thus a significant number of MSG
                               transitions.
            SC Actions         1. Observe results in CMRI and ADS.
            Expected Outcome   1. DAM A/S awards are zero'ed out in ADS during transition periods.




                                                                                                                                                                Slide 17
Exceptional Dispatch Scenarios


 A set of exceptional dispatch scenarios has been defined
 Each of these will be run on a small number of
  resources.
 The ISO can coordinate with SCs’ floor operations, if
  requested by SC.
 If there is a specific Exceptional Dispatch Scenario that
  you would like your resource to participate in then please
  indicate this. (Send email to jbarber@caiso.com by
  6/30/2010)


                                                          Slide 18
Exceptional Dispatch Scenarios 10.1 – 10.3
 Scenario
                                                                          MSG Structured Scenarios
 Number
   10.1     Description        Exceptional Dispatch: Plan Level - "Provide another 100MW."
            ISO Actions        1. ISO to identify a set of MSG resources for this exercise.
                               2. Ensure the identified resources are previously committed in DAM.
                               3. Enter ED instructions for an hour or two for these resources. Instruction should be min GOTO at a level of 100 MW above current
                               economic point.
            SC Actions         1. Observe results in ADS.
            Expected Outcome   1. Once ED'd, units should be ramped up towards their min GOTO level, eventually reaching that level based on ramp rate and
                               telemetry/SE.
   10.2     Description        Exceptional Dispatch: Configuration Level - "Change from configuration 2X1 to configuration 3X1."
            ISO Actions        1. ISO to identify a set of MSG resources for this exercise.
                               2. Ensure the identified resources are previously committed in DAM.
                               3. For the given resources, ISO to put bids in for the possible transition configurations.
                               4. Enter ED instructions for an hour or two for these resources. Instruction should be to move to a different configuration than where the
                               unit is currently operating in.
            SC Actions         1. Observe results in ADS.
            Expected Outcome   1. Once ED'd, units should be ramped towards the transition point, eventually transitioning to the new configuration based on ramp rate
                               and telemetry/SE.
   10.3     Description        Exceptional Dispatch: Force transition to a configuration without a bid.
            ISO Actions        1. ISO to identify a set of MSG resources for this exercise.
                               2. Ensure the identified resources are previously committed in DAM.
                               3. For the given resources, ISO to ensure there are no bids submitted for the possible transition configurations.
                               4. Enter ED instructions for an hour or two for these resources. Instruction should be to move to a different configuration than where the
                               unit is currently operating in.
            SC Actions         1. Observe results in ADS.
            Expected Outcome   1. Once ED'd, units should be ramped towards the transition point, eventually transitioning to the new configuration based on ramp rate
                               and telemetry/SE.
                               2. Transition should occurr without regard to whether the new configuration has a bid.

                                                                                                                                                                 Slide 19
Exceptional Dispatch Scenarios 10.4 – 10.6

  Scenario
                                                                           MSG Structured Scenarios
  Number
    10.4     Description        Exceptional Dispatch: Configuration Switching - "Provide another 100 MW and change to configuration 3X1."
             ISO Actions        1. ISO to identify a set of MSG resources for this exercise.
                                2. Ensure the identified resources are previously committed in DAM.
                                3. Enter ED instructions for an hour or two for these resources. Instruction should be min GOTO at a level of 100 MW above current
                                economic point and move to a higher configuration than where the unit is currently operating in. Check that a 100 MW inc is within the
                                operating range of the new configuration.
             SC Actions         1. Observe results in ADS.
             Expected Outcome   1. Once ED'd, units should be ramped towards the transition point, eventually transitioning to the new configuration based on ramp rate
                                and telemetry/SE. After transition the unit should eventually ramp to the min GOTO level.
    10.5     Description        Exceptional Dispatch: Start MSG resource with no bid in RT using Exceptional Dispatch.
             ISO Actions        1. ISO to identify a set of MSG resources for this exercise.
                                2. Ensure the identified resources have not been committed in DAM.
                                3. Enter startup ED instructions for these resources for a valid configuration (i.e. configuration that is start-up-able)
             SC Actions         1. Observe results in ADS.
             Expected Outcome   1. Once ED'd, units should get a startup instruction, followed by an instruction to Pmin.
    10.6     Description        Exceptional Dispatch: Turn off a MSG Unit in RT 2 to 3 hours after its DA Award schedule begins (i.e., prior to completion of DA schedule).
             ISO Actions        1. ISO to identify a set of MSG resources for this exercise.
                                2. Ensure the identified resources are previously committed in DAM.
                                3. Enter ED instructions to shut off unit.
             SC Actions         1. Observe results in ADS.
             Expected Outcome   1. Shutdown instruction in ADS to shut off unit.




                                                                                                                                                                   Slide 20
Next Steps


 Please take advantage of the opportunity to verify
  connectivity with SIBR Lite beginning June 21.
 The next teleconference will take place at 1pm Pacific on
  Tuesday June 29th. (See above for call-in information.)




                                                            Slide 21

								
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