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					                                                                                                                                                                                   Technical Picks | March 3, 2012



UP Election results to be in focus


Sensex (17637) / Nifty (5359)

We had mentioned in our previous report that indices face                                                                    Exhibit 1: Sensex weekly chart
resistance around 18827 / 5645 and are likely undergo
consolidation. Also, the weekly "Stochastic" oscillator, daily "RSI-
Smoothened" and "3 & 8 Daily EMA" were negatively poised.
The impact of these technical tools was seen on Monday's session
and markets witnessed strong selling pressure to close
significantly lower. Eventually, Indices traded within the range
of the Monday's price action throughout the week to close near
"20-day EMA". On the sectoral front, Realty, IT and Capital
Goods counters contributed heavily in this week's correction,                                                                Source: Falcon
whereas Health Care and PSU sectors ended on a gaining side.
The Sensex ended with a loss of 1.60%, whereas Nifty lost 1.29%                                                              Exhibit 2: Sensex daily chart
vis-à-vis the previous week.

Pattern Formation
    The 200-day SMA and 20-day EMA have now shifted to
                             5362,
    17180 / 5167 and 17682 / 5362 respectively.

    The weekly "Stochastic" oscillator is still negatively poised.

    The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall
    21109 / 6339 (November 5, 2010) to 15135 / 4531                                                                          Source: Falcon
                                          5645.
    (December 23, 2011) is around 18827 / 5645
                                                                                                                             caution, the weekly "Stochastic" oscillator is still negatively poised.
Future Outlook                                                                                                               The impact of this technical tool may come into action on the
                                                                                                                             violation of this week's low of 17381 / 5268 level. In this
Broadly speaking, markets are trading in a range of 18001 to
                                                                                                                             scenario, selling pressure is likely to intensify further and may
                5268.
17381 / 5459 to 5268 A breakout from the mentioned trading
                                                                                                                             drag indices to test "200-day SMA" support zone of 17230 -
range, on either side, is likely to dictate a clear direction in
                                                                                                                             17180 / 5210 - 5167 level.
coming weeks. Therefore, if indices manage to sustain above
the weekly high of 18001 / 5459 then we may witness a positive
                           5459,                                                                                             Traders should take a note that the coming week is likely to
momentum, which would push indices higher to retest recent                                                                   witness volatility on account of the results from the UP elections
swing high of 18524 / 5630. On the downside, 17381 / 5268
                      5630                                                                                                   and markets may take clues from the same.
level may provide decent support for the markets. A word of




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                                                                                                                                                                                  Technical Picks | March 3, 2012




Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks

 SCRIPS                                                           R2                                        R1                                    PIVOT
                                                                                                                                                  PIVO                                        S1                                       S2
 SENSEX                                                      18,293                                    17,965                                    17,673                                   17,345                                    17,054
 NIFTY                                                          5,551                                    5,453                                     5,360                                    5,262                                     5,170
 BANKNIFTY                                                   10,986                                    10,711                                    10,392                                   10,118                                      9,799
 ACC                                                            1,424                                    1,375                                     1,306                                    1,258                                     1,189
 AMBUJACEM                                                         178                                       172                                       164                                      159                                       151
 AXISBANK                                                       1,266                                    1,219                                     1,162                                    1,114                                     1,057
 BAJAJ-AUTO                                                     1,916                                    1,826                                     1,753                                    1,664                                     1,591
 BHARTIARTL                                                        361                                       355                                       346                                      340                                       331
 BHEL                                                              339                                       318                                       302                                      280                                       264
 BPCL                                                              724                                       701                                       662                                      638                                       599
 CAIRN                                                             401                                       386                                       374                                      359                                       347
 CIPLA                                                             332                                       322                                       316                                      307                                       301
 COALINDIA                                                         350                                       341                                       329                                      319                                       308
 DLF                                                               247                                       225                                       211                                      189                                       175
 DRREDDY                                                        1,790                                    1,737                                     1,675                                    1,622                                     1,560
 GAIL                                                              384                                       378                                       373                                      367                                       362
 HCLTECH                                                           509                                       495                                       484                                      469                                       458
 HDFC                                                              694                                       681                                       670                                      657                                       646
 HDFCBANK                                                          556                                       537                                       521                                      503                                       487
 HEROHONDA                                                      2,156                                    2,053                                     1,984                                    1,881                                     1,812
 HINDALCO                                                          165                                       156                                       147                                      139                                       130
 HINDUNILVR                                                        397                                       389                                       383                                      374                                       368
 ICICIBANK                                                         965                                       934                                       902                                      872                                       840
 IDFC                                                              154                                       147                                       138                                      131                                       123
 INFOSYSTCH                                                    3,035                                     2,944                                     2,875                                    2,784                                     2,715
 ITC                                                               217                                       211                                       207                                      201                                       197
 JINDALSTEL                                                        646                                       619                                       591                                      565                                       536
 JPASSOCIAT                                                          83                                        79                                        74                                       69                                        64
 KOTAKBANK                                                         602                                       582                                       556                                      536                                       510
 LT                                                            1,430                                     1,365                                     1,313                                    1,248                                     1,196
 M&M                                                               757                                       717                                       693                                      653                                       629
 MARUTI                                                        1,400                                     1,363                                     1,299                                    1,261                                     1,198
 NTPC                                                              190                                       184                                       179                                      174                                       169
 ONGC                                                              307                                       294                                       285                                      271                                       263
 PNB                                                           1,036                                         996                                       942                                      902                                       848
 POWERGRID                                                         117                                       114                                       113                                      110                                       108
 RANBAXY                                                           447                                       436                                       429                                      419                                       411
 RCOM                                                              103                                         99                                        93                                       89                                        83
 RELIANCE                                                          865                                       839                                       802                                      777                                       740
 RELINFRA                                                          686                                       655                                       595                                      564                                       504
 RPOWER                                                            145                                       137                                       123                                      116                                       102
 SAIL                                                              111                                       106                                       101                                        96                                        91
 SBIN                                                          2,392                                     2,321                                     2,216                                    2,145                                     2,040
 SESAGOA                                                           225                                       218                                       210                                      203                                       195
 SIEMENS                                                           861                                       827                                       790                                      755                                       718
 STER                                                              133                                       128                                       121                                      116                                       109
 SUNPHARMA                                                         590                                       579                                       561                                      551                                       533
 SUZLON                                                              34                                        32                                        28                                       25                                        21
 TATAMOTORS                                                        291                                       279                                      267                                       256                                       244
 TATAPOWER                                                         124                                       119                                      114                                       110                                      104
 TATASTEEL                                                         501                                       484                                      461                                       444                                      422
 TCS                                                           1,306                                     1,260                                     1,233                                    1,187                                     1,160
 WIPRO                                                             454                                       440                                      429                                       416                                      405



                                                                                                                                                                                                  Technical Research Team

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                                                                                                                                                                              Derivatives Review | March 3, 2012




Range bound activity with high volatility is quite likely

Nifty spot closed at 5359.40 this week, against a close of 5429.30 last week. The Put-Call Ratio decreased from 1.33 to 1.23 levels
and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive 9.72 The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 3.15
                                             9.72%.                                               3.15%.

                         Put-Call Ratio Analysis                                                                                                                Implied Volatility Analysis

PCR-OI has declined to 1.23 from 1.33 levels. Despite markets                                                                    Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has increased from 23.50% to
correcting and being volatile we have seen relatively less activity                                                              27.63%. Historical volatility (HV) is at 22.45% and that for
in options segment as traders are more inclined toward stock                                                                     BANKNIFTY is trading at 37.99%. Liquid counters having very
futures. However, in puts 5200 and 5300 strikes have witnessed                                                                   high HV are LITL, VOLTAS, HDIL, HCC and ADANIPOWER.
substantial amount of open interest build-up and we believe                                                                      Stocks where HV are on lower side are ITC, DRREDDY, TCS,
this zone may act as strong support for the market. In calls                                                                     HINDUNILVR and COREEDUTEC.
activity is still scattered and apart from 5400-5600 strikes, deep
out-of-money strikes 5900 and 6000 have also witnessed some
interest developing in them.

                        Open Interest Analysis                                                                                                                        Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Total open interest of market has increased from `1,03,536/-                                                                     Nifty futures closed at a premium of 37.10 points against the
crores to `1,19,142/- crores. Stock futures open interest has                                                                    premium of 58.15 points to its spot. Next month future is trading
increased from `30,678/- crores to `31,694/- crores. Some of                                                                     with premium of 73.95 points. Liquid counters where CoC is
the large cap names which added open interest are M&M,                                                                                                     ,
                                                                                                                                 high are ALOKTEXT, WELCORP TTML, SKUMARSYNF and
BAJAJAUTO, TATASTEEL, MARUTI and BHEL. Open interest was                                                                         INDHOTEL. Stocks with negative CoC are COALINDIA, ABAN,
shed in some big names like STER, COALINDIA, LICHSGFIN,                                                                          ACC, ONGC and BHEL.
SUZLON and SESAGOA.

                                                                                             Derivative Strategy

                HINDALCO
        Scrip : HINDALCO                                         CMP : `147.80                                             Lot Size : 2000                                                Exercise Date (F & O) :
                                                                                                                                                                                            29th March, 2012
        View: Mildly Bearish                                                              Strategy: Long Put Ladder                                                                           Expected Payoff

        Buy/Sell           Qty                Scrip                        Strike               Series               Option Buy/Sell Rate                                           Price
                                                                                                                                                                           Closing Price                               Expected
                                                                                                                                                                                 (`
                                                                                                                                                                                 (`)                                    rofit/Loss
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Profit/Loss
                                                                           Price                                      Type       (`)
        BUY               2000          HINDALCO                            150                   MAR                    PE                  9.00                                       120                             (`2.00)
        SELL              2000          HINDALCO                            140                   MAR                    PE                  5.00
                                                                                                                                                                                        126                              `4.00
        SELL              2000          HINDALCO                            130                   MAR                    PE                  2.00
                                                                                                                                                                                        132                              `8.00
                122
        LBEP : `122
                148
        HBEP : `148                                                                                                                                                                     138                              `8.00
        Max. Risk: Unlimited                                                    Profit:
                                                                           Max. Profit: `16,000/-
                                                                                                                                                                                        144                              `4.00
        If HINDALCO continues to move below LBEP.                          If HINDALCO closes on or between 130 and 140 on expiry
                                                                                                                                                                                        150                             (`2.00)
        NOTE : Profit can be booked before expiry if HINDALCO moves in the favorable direction and time value decays.
          TE:
        NOTE




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                                                                                                                                    Weekly



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   Ratings (Returns) :          Buy (> 15%)                              Accumulate (5% to 15%)                      Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                Reduce (-5% to -15%)                     Sell (< -15%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Weekly


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   Sarabjit Kour Nangra                                                                                                VP-Research, Pharmaceutical                                                                             sarabjit@angelbroking.com
   Vaibhav Agrawal                                                                                                     VP-Research, Banking                                                                                    vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
   Shailesh Kanani                                                                                                     Infrastructure                                                                                          shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com
   Bhavesh Chauhan                                                                                                     Metals & Mining                                                                                          bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
   Sharan Lillaney                                                                                                     Mid-cap                                                                                                 sharanb.lillaney@angelbroking.com
   V Srinivasan                                                                                                        Research Associate (Cement, Power)                                                                      v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com
   Yaresh Kothari                                                                                                      Research Associate (Automobile)                                                                         yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
   Sreekanth P.V.S                                                                                                     Research Associate (FMCG, Media)                                                                         sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com
   Hemang Thaker                                                                                                       Research Associate (Capital Goods)                                                                       hemang.thaker@angelbroking.com
   Nitin Arora                                                                                                         Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate)                                                                 nitin.arora@angelbroking.com
   Ankita Somani                                                                                                       Research Associate (IT, Telecom)                                                                        ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
   Varun Varma                                                                                                         Research Associate (Banking)                                                                            varun.varma@angelbroking.com
   Saurabh Taparia                                                                                                     Research Associate (Cement, Power)                                                                       Sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com

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   Shardul Kulkarni                                                                                                    Sr. Technical Analyst                                                                                   shardul.kulkarni@angelbroking.com
   Sameet Chavan                                                                                                       Technical Analyst                                                                                       sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com
   Sacchitanand Uttekar                                                                                                Technical Analyst                                                                                       sacchitanand.uttekar@angelbroking.com

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   Siddarth Bhamre                                                                                                     Head - Derivatives                                                                                      siddarth.bhamre@angelbroking.com

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   Mayuresh Joshi                                                                                                      VP - Institutional Sales                                                                                 mayuresh.joshi@angelbroking.com
   Hiten Sampat                                                                                                        Sr. A.V.P- Institution sales                                                                             hiten.sampat@angelbroking.com
   Meenakshi Chavan                                                                                                    Dealer                                                                                                  meenakshis.chavan@angelbroking.com
   Gaurang Tisani                                                                                                      Dealer                                                                                                   gaurangp.tisani@angelbroking.com
   Akshay Shah                                                                                                         Sr. Executive                                                                                                akshayr.shah@angelbroking.com

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   Simran Kaur                                                                                                         Research Editor                                                                                         simran.kaur@angelbroking.com
   Dilip Patel                                                                                                         Production                                                                                               dilipm.patel@angelbroking.com




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