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SENSEX 17, 397 17, 517 17, 624 17, 744 17, 852
NIFTY 5, 278 5, 319 5, 356 5, 396 5, 433
BANKNIFTY 10, 012 10, 223 10, 404 10, 615 10, 795
ACC 1, 309 1, 324 1, 339 1, 354 1, 369
AMBUJACEM 162 165 168 171 173
AXISBANK 1, 109 1, 138 1, 173 1, 202 1, 238
BAJAJ-AUTO 1, 698 1, 724 1, 761 1, 787 1, 824
BHARTIARTL 341 346 349 354 357
BHEL 285 291 297 303 309
BPCL 653 658 664 669 674
CAIRN 361 365 373 378 385
CIPLA 311 313 316 318 321
COALINDIA 326 329 332 335 339
DLF 194 199 205 209 215
DRREDDY 1, 634 1, 655 1, 692 1, 713 1, 750
GAIL 366
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Market Outlook
India Research
March 2, 2012
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Dealer’s Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open flat with a positive bias taking cue from BSE Sensex (1.0) (168.7) 17,584
the SGX nifty which is trading marginally higher in the opening trade. Most of the Nifty (0.8) (45.5) 5,340
Asian markets too are trading higher and have posted gains of ~0.5-1% in the MID CAP (0.5) (33.7) 6,353
morning trade. SMALL CAP (0.4) (26.1) 6,834
BSE HC 0.3 15.9 6,352
The US markets ended in the green on Thursday buoyed by a drop in jobless
BSE PSU (0.7) (56.5) 7,708
claims for the week ending February 25th. The report released by US labour
BANKEX (1.2) (143.3) 11,831
department showed that initial jobless claims edged down to 351,000 from the
AUTO (0.9) (89.6) 9,905
previous week's revised figure of 353,000. The positive news on the jobless claims
METAL (0.9) (102.2) 11,950
front over shadowed the drop in manufacturing index for February. Meanwhile, the
OIL & GAS (1.0) (82.5) 8,629
European markets posted a strong performance on Thursday a day after the ECB
BSE IT (0.7) (44.4) 6,117
announced the second tranche of LTRO with the major indices in Germany, France
Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
and UK gaining by more than 1%.
Dow Jones 0.2 28.2 12,980
On the domestic front, the Indian markets remained low since the beginning on
NASDAQ 0.7 22.1 2,989
Thursday weighed down by lower than estimated quarterly GDP growth for
FTSE 1.0 59.7 5,931
3QFY2012.
Nikkei (0.2) (15.9) 9,707
Markets Today Hang Seng (1.4) (292.1) 21,388
The trend deciding level for the day is 17,588 / 5,337 levels. If NIFTY trades above Straits Times (0.5) (15.2) 2,979
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally Shanghai Com (0.1) (2.4) 2,426
up to 17,713 – 17,843 / 5,376 – 5,412 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
17,588 / 5,337 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
17,459 – 17,334 / 5,301 – 5,262 levels.
Infosys 0.4 0.2 $57.9
Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 Wipro 1.2 0.1 $11.1
SENSEX 17,334 17,459 17,588 17,713 17,843 ICICI Bank 0.0 0.0 $36.3
NIFTY 5,262 5,301 5,337 5,376 5,412 HDFC Bank (0.1) (0.0) $34.3
News Analysis
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Auto sales numbers - February 2012
Advances 1,230 562
Cement Dispatches – February 2012
Declines 1,623 877
Result Review: Mphasis
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page Unchanged 114 66
Net Inflows (February 29, 2012)
` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD Volumes (` cr)
FII 3,679 3,029 651 25,217 36,298
BSE 2,848
MFs 656 722 (66) (2,172) (4,027)
NSE 13,240
FII Derivatives (March 01, 2012)
` cr Purch Sales Net Open Interest
Index Futures 1,501 1,852 (352) 12,972
Stock Futures 1,694 2,213 (520) 28,570
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Losers
Company Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)
Suzlon Energy 30 11.5 United Phos 142 (8.7)
Wockhardt 518 6.9 DLF 215 (5.2)
Reliance Cap 426 5.5 Jet Air India 294 (4.4)
Dish TV India 57 4.9 HDIL 110 (4.1)
Maruti Suzuki 1,315 4.6 PTC India 57 (4.0)
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539 1
Market Outlook | India Research
Auto sales numbers - February 2012
Tata Motors (TTMT)
TTMT posted a strong 18.8% yoy (5.3% mom) increase in its total sales to 92,119
units, driven by 24.8% (8.7% mom) and 10.4% yoy (flat mom) growth in the CV
and PV segments, respectively. The CV segment's performance was led by healthy
7.1% and 37.6% yoy growth in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle
(MHCV) and light commercial vehicle (LCV) segments, respectively. In the PV
segment, Nano and Indica volumes grew by 11.6% and 3.8% yoy, respectively.
Mahindra & Mahindra (MM)
MM registered an 11.4% yoy (down 8.8% mom) increase in its total volumes to
58,403 units, led by strong performance by the automotive segment, which grew
by 29.1% yoy (down 3.6% mom). However, the tractor segment posted a
disappointing 19.6% yoy decline in volumes during the month. The automotive
segment's performance was driven by continued buoyancy in the four-wheeler
pick-up (up 36.5% yoy) and passenger UV (up 32.6% yoy) segments. CV and
Verito sales also recorded strong volume performance, witnessing growth of
39.4% and 41.8% yoy, respectively.
Hero MotoCorp (HMCL)
HMCL reported healthy 10.9% yoy (flat mom) growth in its volumes to 523,465
units, led by continued momentum across all product segments. New product
launches and refreshed product ranges continued to drive HMCL’s volume
performance.
Maruti Suzuki (MSIL)
MSIL reported better-than-expected volume growth of 6.5% yoy (3% mom) to
118,949 units in February 2012, led by 6% (6.5% mom) and 11.8% yoy growth
in the domestic and exports segments, respectively. The domestic segment's
performance was driven by 31.1% (8.3% mom) and 58.8% (74.5% mom) yoy
growth in sales in the compact (mainly led by Swift) and super compact segments,
respectively.
TVS Motor (TVSL)
TVSL posted a disappointing 3% yoy decline in its total sales to 172,061 units,
largely due to a decline in the motorcycles (down 11.8% yoy) and scooters (down
9% yoy) segments. As a result, two-wheeler volumes declined by 2.4% yoy (1.2%
mom). Three-wheeler volumes also reported a 27.2% yoy decline during the
month.
March 2, 2012 2
Market Outlook | India Research
Cement Dispatches – February 2012
Ambuja Cements’ dispatches in February 2012 stood at 2.0mn tonnes, up by
strong 12.7% yoy from 1.77mn tonne reported in February 2011. Even on mom
basis, company reported a growth of 4.2%. All India Cement dispatches growth
for past few months has been encouraging lead mainly by strong growth in
western region. Ambuja which sells ~40% of its output in western region has
benefitted from the healthy growth in the region. We continue to remain Neutral
on Ambuja Cements as the stock trades at EV/tonne of US $155 on CY2012E
capacity.
Result Review: 1QFY2012
Mphasis
Mphasis announced its 1QFY2012 numbers. The company underperformed our
as well as street expectations on all the fronts. USD revenue came in at
US$266mn, down 3.8% qoq. In INR terms revenue came in at `1,367cr, up just
4.1% qoq despite steep INR depreciation against USD in 1QFY2012. Onsite
billing rate of application services again declined during the quarter to US$67/hr
from US$69/hr in 4QFY2011, while offshore billing rates of application services
grew to US$21/hr from US$20/hr in 4QFY2011. Other than this, billing rates,
onsite as well as offshore, of all the segments were flat on a qoq basis. Revenue
from the direct channel grew by 14.4% qoq, however revenue from HP channel
declined by 4.0% qoq. EBITDA margin of the company improved by 60bp qoq to
18.4%, aided by INR depreciation. PAT came in at `185cr, almost flat qoq. We
maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock; the target price is under review.
Economic and Political News
Government approves subsidy cut on fertilisers for FY13
Government approves `3,412cr road projects
January exports up 10% to US$25 bn
Corporate News
ONGC share auction scrapes through, despite low investor appetite
Glenmark gets USFDA nod for contraceptive, scalp gel
Tata Comm. may bid for British telecom giant CWW
Vedanta offers `16,000cr for govt's stake in HZL, Balco
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
March 2, 2012 3
Market Outlook | India Research
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com
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March 2, 2012 4
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