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Weekly Market Outlook 03.03.12

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Weekly Market Outlook 03.03.12 Powered By Docstoc
					Weekly Market Outlook                                                  03 Mar 2012
                                                                                                                                         make more, for sure.


                                                            SNAPSHOT
 DATA MATRIX FOR THE WEEK
                                                            Bulls of the markets continued to doze off as bears controlled the Dalal Street for the second successive
     27th Feb 2012 - 2nd Mar 2012                           week and pummeled the benchmark equity indices by around one and half a percentage points. Despite
                                                            settling only twice in the negative terrain out of the five sessions, the stock markets still failed to reverse
                                                            the hefty losses in the passing week. After the rejuvenated performance since the start of the New Year
             Weekly Markets                                 which saw the bourses rally for seven consecutive weeks, the markets seem to have drifted into correction
Sensex                       17,637            -1.60%       mode. The next two weeks too are likely to bring volatility to the table as apart from the results of all
                                                            important assembly elections, the keenly awaited union budget 2012-13 will be presented by the
Nifty                          5,359           -1.29%       government.Though the markets recovered some part of losses in the last regular trading session of the
                                                            week however that was too little too late to undo the damage that was already done in the week. But the
Gold(US$/oz)                 1,711.9           -3.54%       resilient mid cap index from the broader markets remained the only counter which bucked the pessimistic
Re/US$                         49.51            1.04%       trend and concluded the week with gains of three fourth of a percent and outperformed their larger peers
                                                            by a fat margin.
Dow                           12,978           -0.04%
                                                                3000                   Volume* & Volatility Index (Nifty - Feb & Mar 2012)                            30
Nasdaq                         2,976            0.40%
                                                                2500                                                                                                  28
FX Res (US$ Bn)              295.047            0.55%           2000
                                                                                                                                                                      26
                                                                1500
                                                                                                                                                                      24
Net FII / DII Equity Activity (Rs Cr)                           1000
                                                                 500                                                                                                  22
Upto 02.03.12                  FIIs              DIIs
                                                                   0                                                                                                  20
Total Mar 2012                 452.0              -80.0                17-Feb 21-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 27-Feb 28-Feb 29-Feb 1-Mar                        2-Mar
Total 2012                    33,157          -18,351           *NSE
                                                                                  Cash Volume (Rs bn)            F & O Volume (Rs bn)           Volatility Index %

        Weekly Sector Movement
Sectors                       Close                 %
Auto                          9,876               -1.57
Bankex                        11,997              -0.59
CD                             6,521              -0.35
CG                            10,317              -2.31
FMCG                           4,130              -1.42
Healthcare                     6,405               2.00
IT                             6,103              -3.27
Metal                         11,970              -0.86
Oil & Gas                      8,600              -0.61
                                                            India VIX, a gauge for market's short term expectation of volatility gain 0.61% at 27.84 from its previous close
PSU                            7,656               0.23     of 27.67 on Thursday. Meanwhile India's trade deficit widened to $14.7 billion in January 2012 as compared to
Realty                         1,846              -4.28     $10.3 billion in January 2011. Cumulative value of exports for the period April-January 2011 -12 registered a
                                                            growth of 23.47% in dollar terms.

 WEEK AHEAD
However, the markets in the coming week are expected to be no different as market men will be keenly watching out for cues on forthcoming
budget, RBI's mid-quarter monetary policy review. Further, even there could be exaggerated effect of state election results on equity markets on
either side. Additionally, investors will closely watch movement in crude oil prices as India imports two-thirds of its oil consumption, so a
further increase in oil prices will hurt its fiscal balance substantially. On the global front, investor's will be eying few important data from US,
starting from Jobless Claims data on March 8, 2012, followed by Employment Situation and International trade data on March 9,2012. Hence we
are expecting slightly negative bias in the spot index ranging between 5150-5160 to 5580-5630 though volumes may remain subdued for the next
two weeks. HAPPY TRADING...



     Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                         For Private circulation Only                          For Our Clients Only
                                                                                      1
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                                                SEBI Reg.No: BSE: INB 010985834, F&O: INF 010985834
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002                          NSE: INB 230781431, F&O: INF 230781431, DP: IN-DP-CDSL-73-2000, IN-
                                                                                                  DP-NSDL-140-2000
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
                                                                                                  MCX/TCM/CORP/0740 NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0293
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook
                                                                                                                    make more, for sure.


   SENSEX 30-TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDED 9th March Feb 2012
                                                              SUPPORT             CLOSE PRICE                RESISTANCE
                       SCRIP                           3rd      2nd       1st         02.03.12         1st       2nd       3rd    INCLINATION

Bajaj Auto Ltd                                         1637    1698       1724        1749.35         1785      1821      1883        Neutral

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.                          274      286       291          296.60          303       309       320       Negative
Bharti Airtel Ltd.                                     334      341       346          350.20          353       356       363        Positive

Cipla Ltd.                                             307      312       314          315.60          318       321       326        Neutral

Coal India Ltd.                                        318      325       328          330.70          335       338       345        Neutral
DLF Ltd.                                               185      195       199          203.85          209       215       225       Negative

GAIL (India) Ltd.                                      361      367       369          370.95          375       378       384        Neutral

HDFC Bank Ltd.                                         484      501       510          518.30          526       534       550        Neutral
Hero MotoCorp Ltd.                                     1840    1895       1917        1938.95         1972      2005      2060        Neutral

Hindalco Industries Ltd.                               133      141       145          147.85          153       159       168        Neutral

Hindustan Unilever Ltd.                                367      374       378          382.55          385       388       395        Neutral
Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd.           644      657       664          671.35          677       682       695        Neutral

ICICI Bank Ltd.                                        819      858       881          902.75          920       937       976        Neutral

Infosys Ltd.                                           2746    2794       2820        2846.60         2869      2891      2940       Negative
ITC Ltd.                                               198      202       203          205.10          207       209       213       Negative

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd.                              550      568       578          587.80          595       603       621        Neutral

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.                                   1202    1249       1274        1299.25         1322      1345      1392       Negative
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.                               652      667       673          679.85          688       696       710       Negative

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.                               1265    1293       1308        1323.15         1337      1350      1379        Positive

NTPC Ltd.                                              171      175       177          178.60          181       182       186        Neutral
Oil & Natural Gas Corpn. Ltd.                          262      272       277          281.45          286       291       300       Negative

Reliance Industries Ltd.                               788      800       807          814.35          820       825       837        Neutral

State Bank Of India                                    2048    2142       2194        2245.70         2289      2332      2426        Neutral
Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd.                       116      120       122          124.35          126       128       132        Neutral

Sun Pharmaceutical Inds. Ltd.                          524      543       555          565.90          574       581       600        Positive

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.                         1172    1195       1206        1217.15         1229      1241      1264       Negative
Tata Motors Ltd.                                       254      261       264          267.45          271       275       283        Positive

Tata Power Company Ltd.                                105      110       112          114.35          117       119       124        Positive

Tata Steel Ltd.                                        442      454       460          465.95          472       478       490        Neutral
Wipro Ltd.                                             409      417       423          427.80          431       435       444        Neutral




                                                                      2
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                               SEBI Reg.No: BSE: INB 010985834, F&O: INF 010985834
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002         NSE: INB 230781431, F&O: INF 230781431, DP: IN-DP-CDSL-73-2000, IN-
                                                                                 DP-NSDL-140-2000
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
                                                                                 MCX/TCM/CORP/0740 NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0293
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook
                                                                                                                  make more, for sure.


        NSE MIDCAP 50-TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK ENDED 9th March 2012
                                                   SUPPORT                  CLOSE PRICE               RESISTANCE                 Market Cap
                 SCRIP                      3rd      2nd         1st          02.03.12         1st        2nd           3rd       (Rs Crore)
Adani Power Ltd.                           70           73       75            76.50            79          81           85          16677
Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd.                     845         862       868          874.05           884          894         910           9922
Allahabad Bank                             178         184       187          189.70           194          198         204           9034
Alstom Projects India Ltd.                 347         358       363          367.70           373          379         390           2464
Andhra Bank                                119         123       125          126.90           129          132         136           7101
Ashok Leyland Ltd.                         26           27       28            28.65            29          30           31           7623
Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.                      92          104       112          120.15           125          130         142           3498
Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd.                      32           33       34            34.40            35          35           37           2200
BEML Ltd.                                  630         647       655          662.45           671          679         696           2759
Bharat Forge Ltd.                          272         289       296          302.90           313          324         341           7051
CESC Ltd.                                  252         259       263          265.85           270          274         282           3321
Cummins India Ltd.                         409         438       449          459.65           478          496         525          12741
DiviS Laboratories Ltd.                    715         728       733          738.85           747          754         767           9805
Educomp Solutions Ltd.                     196         204       208          211.10           215          220         227           2028
Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd.        216         226       231          236.75           241          245         255           3605
GVK Power & Infrastructure Ltd.            16           17       18            17.95            18          19           20           2835
Hindustan Construction Company Ltd.        25           27       28            28.65            30          31           33           1738
Housing Development & Infrastructure Ltd. 91            99       102          104.70           109          114         122           4387
IDBI Bank Ltd                              98          105       109          112.80           116          119         126          11107
India Cements Ltd.                         93           97       99           100.35           102          104         108           3083
Indian Bank                                222         227       230          232.00           235          238         244           9971
Indian Hotels Company Ltd.                 63           66       66            67.30            69          70           73           5111
IVRCL Ltd.                                 51           53       54            55.05            56          58           60           1470
Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd.               97          101       103          104.60           107          110         114           4238
JSW Steel Ltd.                             737         764       775          786.35           803          819         846          17545
Lanco Infratech Ltd.                       19           20       20            20.80            21          22           23           5008
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd.             29           31       32            32.25            33          35           37           2032
Mphasis Ltd.                               259         326       359          392.80           426          459         525           8250
NCC Ltd.                                   54           57       59            61.00            62          64           67           1565
Oracle Financial Services Software Ltd    2369        2502      2552          2601.65         2685         2768        2901          21841
Patel Engineering Ltd.                     100         105       107          108.75           111          113         118            759
Petronet LNG Ltd.                          159         162       164          165.00           167          169         172          12375
Piramal Healthcare Ltd.                    435         441       444          447.55           450          453         459           7723
Praj Industries Ltd.                       75           78       79            79.90            81          83           85           1454
Punj Lloyd Ltd.                            53           55       56            56.80            58          59           61           1886
Rolta India Ltd.                           90           96       98           100.50           104          107         113           1621
Shipping Corpn. Of India Ltd.              64           67       68            69.10            71          73           76           3219
Sintex Industries Ltd.                     79           82       83            84.80            86          88           91           2315
Syndicate Bank                             102         106       108          109.65           112          114         118           6286
Tata Chemicals Ltd.                        340         349       352          355.60           361          366         375           9059
Tata Global Beverages Ltd                  113         117       119          120.55           123          126         130           7455
Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd.       15           15       15            15.60            16          16           17           2960
Tech Mahindra Ltd.                         573         587       592          597.90           606          615         628           7620
Titan Industries Ltd.                      216         223       226          229.50           233          236         243          20375
Ultratech Cement Ltd.                     1376        1400      1412          1424.55         1437         1449        1473          39041
Unitech Ltd.                               28           30       31            31.50            33          34           36           8241
United Phosphorus Ltd.                     121         129       133          135.80           141          147         156           6271
Vijaya Bank Ltd                            56           59       60            61.80            63          65           68           2921
Voltas Ltd.                                101         109       113          116.25           121          125         134           3847
Welspun Corp Ltd.                          130         138       141          143.95           148          153         160           3279


                                                                   3
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                            SEBI Reg.No: BSE: INB 010985834, F&O: INF 010985834
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002      NSE: INB 230781431, F&O: INF 230781431, DP: IN-DP-CDSL-73-2000, IN-
                                                                              DP-NSDL-140-2000
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
                                                                              MCX/TCM/CORP/0740 NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0293
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook
                                                                                                                   make more, for sure.

FORTHCOMING CORPORATE ACTIONS



     Ex-Date      Company Name                                    NSE- Symbol                                    Purpose
    6-Mar-12      Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited                      BHEL                    INTERIM DIVIDEND RS.2.72 PER SHARE
    7-Mar-12      Standard Chartered PLC                               STAN                                    DIVIDEND
    7-Mar-12      Bharat Forge Limited                            BHARATFORG                              INTERIM DIVIDEND
    9-Mar-12      GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Ltd           GSKCONS                    AGM AND DIVIDEND RS.35/- PER SHARE
    9-Mar-12      The Andhra Pradesh Paper Mills Limited            APPAPER                          ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
    9-Mar-12      Goldman Sachs Nifty Exchange Traded S             NIFTYBEES                          DIVIDEND-RS.10 PER UNIT
    9-Mar-12      Goldman Sachs Banking Index Exchange TS           BANKBEES                           DIVIDEND-RS.11 PER UNIT
    12-Mar-12     ACC Limited                                           ACC                          DIVIDEND RS.17/- PER SHARE
    13-Mar-12     K.M.Sugar Mills Limited                           KMSUGAR                          ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
    13-Mar-12     Eicher Motors Limited                            EICHERMOT                          DIVIDEND-RS.16 PER SHARE
    13-Mar-12     CRISIL Limited                                       CRISIL                      DIVIDEND - RS. 2.75/- PER SHARE
    13-Mar-12     KPIT Cummins Infosystems Limited                      KPIT                                   BONUS 1:1
    14-Mar-12     Spanco Limited                                     SPANCO                      AGM/ DIVIDEND RE. 1/- PER SHARE
    15-Mar-12     Kewal Kiran Clothing Limited                         KKCL                   2ND INTERIM DIVIDEND RS.6/- PER SHARE
    15-Mar-12     Coal India Limited                               COALINDIA                              INTERIM DIVIDEND
    16-Mar-12     Gujarat Gas Company Limited                      GUJRATGAS                   SPECIAL DIVIDEND - RS. 12/- PER SHARE
    19-Mar-12     Modi Rubber Limited                             MODIRUBBER                         ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING
    19-Mar-12     Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited                ONGC                               INTERIM DIVIDEND
    20-Mar-12     TVS Motor Company Limited                        TVSMOTOR                               INTERIM DIVIDEND
    21-Mar-12     Foseco India Limited                             FOSECOIND                   AGM AND DIVIDEND RS.7/- PER SHARE
    21-Mar-12     Helios And Matheson Information Tech Ltd        HELIOSMATH                   AGM AND DIVIDEND RS.1.50 PER SHARE
    21-Mar-12     Nestle India Limited                             NESTLEIND                 AGM AND DIVIDEND - RS.12.50/- PER SHARE
    21-Mar-12     Lakshmi Energy and Foods Limited                LAKSHMIEFL                   AGM AND DIVIDEND RE.0.20 PER SHARE
    22-Mar-12     Colgate Palmolive (India) Limited                    COLPAL                             INTERIM DIVIDEND
    26-Mar-12     KSB Pumps Limited                                 KSBPUMPS                   AGM AND DIVIDEND RS.3/- PER SHARE




                                                                   4
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                              SEBI Reg.No: BSE: INB 010985834, F&O: INF 010985834
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002        NSE: INB 230781431, F&O: INF 230781431, DP: IN-DP-CDSL-73-2000, IN-
                                                                                DP-NSDL-140-2000
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
                                                                                MCX/TCM/CORP/0740 NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0293
Website: www.moneysukh.com
Weekly Market Outlook
                                                                                                                            make more, for sure.




                              EQUITY CALLS PERFORMANCE FOR THE WEEK ENDED 2nd Mar 2012
      Total No. of Calls                    Profitable Calls                 Positional/Hold                Exit/Stop Loss              Success Rate
                25                                  14                               6                              5                       73.68%




                  NAME                                   DESIGNATION                                                    E-MAIL
               Varun Gupta                                Head - Research                                 varungupta@moneysukh.com
           Pashupati Nath Jha                             Research Analyst                            pashupatinathjha@moneysukh.com
              Vikram Singh                                Research Analyst                             vikram_research@moneysukh.com




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                                                                           5
Mansukh Securities and Finance Ltd                                                       SEBI Regn No. BSE: INB010985834 / NSE: INB230781431
                                                                                      SEBI Reg.No: BSE: INB 010985834, F&O: INF 010985834
Office: 306, Pratap Bhavan, 5, Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi-110002              NSE: INB 230781431, F&O: INF 230781431, DP: IN-DP-CDSL-73-2000, IN-
                                                                                                                          PMS Regn No. INP000002387
                                                                                      DP-NSDL-140-2000
Phone: 011-30123450/1/3/5 Fax: 011-30117710 Email: research@moneysukh.com
                                                                                      MCX/TCM/CORP/0740 NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0293
Website: www.moneysukh.com

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Description: Bulls of the markets continued to doze off as bears controlled the Dalal Street for the second successive week and pummeled the benchmark equity indices by around one and half a percentage points. Despite settling only twice in the negative terrain out of the five sessions, the stock markets still failed to reverse the hefty losses in the passing week. After the rejuvenated performance since the start of the New Year which saw the bourses rally for seven consecutive weeks, the markets seem to have drifted into correction mode. The next two weeks too are likely to bring volatility to the table as apart from the results of all important assembly elections, the keenly awaited union budget 2012-13 will be presented by the government.Though the markets recovered some part of losses in the last regular trading session of the week however that was too little too late to undo the damage that was already done in the week. But the resilient mid cap index from the broader markets remained the only counter which bucked the pessimistic trend and concluded the week with gains of three fourth of a percent and outperformed their larger peers by a fat margin.