WADE by dandanhuanghuang

VIEWS: 4 PAGES: 17

									      Bagasse Cogeneration:
A Coming Renewable Energy Miracle?

                  3 June 2004

          Michael Brown – Director
    Aurelie Morand – Research Executive

   World Alliance for Decentralized Energy (WADE)
                www.localpower.org
WADE – Key Points


  Non-profit organisation created June 2002
  Mission
     To accelerate the deployment of DE systems worldwide
  WADE is supported by:
     National Cogen/DE organisations
     Cogen/DE companies with international interests
        Caterpillar, Capstone, Solar Turbines, FuelCell Energy,
         MTU, Marubeni, Siemens, Primary Energy, Wärtsilä
     UN agencies
     National governments (eg US, Norway, UK, Canada)




                                2
What is Decentralized Energy (DE)?



 Electricity production at the point of use, irrespective of
 size, fuel or technology – on-grid or off-grid:


 • High efficiency CHP / cogeneration

 • On-site renewable energy

 • On-site industrial energy recycling



                             3
                  DE share as % of total power generation




                  0
                       10
                             20
                                    30
                                          40
                                                50
                                                      60
      Denmark

    Netherlands

        Finland

        Russia

      Germany

       Canada

         China




4
          Chile

       Portugal
                                                            Global Cogen / DE Development




           US

      WORLD

           UK
                                                            Data from WADE’s ‘World Survey of DE - 2004’




        Mexico

         Brazil

        France

          India
Electricity Systems Waste 67% of Energy

Electricity Generation Worldwide (TWh)
(source: International energy Agency 2002)




                                                                                                                              Energy waste


                                        Total primary
                                       energy input for
                                          electricity
                                         production:
                                           40180


                                                          Gross Electricity
                                                                                    Net Electricity   Electricity delivered
                                                            Production:
                                                                                  Production: 14491      to customers:
                                                              15454
                                                                                                             13153




       Less than 33% efficiency of the electricity system.
       Less than 30% in many developing countries (around 10-15% in
       India including commercial losses)
                                                                              5
It’s Official - the Cogeneration Scenario is Cheaper and
Cleaner

OECD Inv estment in Reference (BAU) and Alternative Policy Scenarios, 2001-2030

                   4000                         20% lower investment
                                                need; CO2 emissions
                                                remain at 2000 level    Alternative scenario:
                   3000                                                 More cogeneration
                                                                        More efficiency
     $US billion




                                                                        More renewables
                   2000
                                                                        IEA comment:
                                                                        “However, the reliance
                   1000                                                 on more expensive
                                                                        generating options in
                                                                        the Alternative Policy
                     0
                                                                        Scenario is likely to
                          Reference scenario   Alternative scenario     result in higher
                                                                        electricity prices.”
                              Distribution
                              Transmission
                              Generation (new and refurbishment)
Source: Int ernational Energy Agency, 2003

                                                   6
World - Retail Cost per kWh for New Capacity to 2020

                   14.00

                   12.00

                   10.00
   $ Cents / KWh




                    8.00

                    6.00

                    4.00

                    2.00

                    0.00
                           100% Central /       75% / 25%             50% / 50%       25% / 75%          0% Central /
                              0% DE                                                                       100% DE
                                               % Central Power / DE of Total Generation
                      O&M of New Capacity                                  Fuel
                      Capital Amortization + Profit On New Capacity        T&D Amortization on New T&D




                                                                  7
The World’s Top Sugarcane Producers




                Cuba

                                                          The Philippines




                               50% of global production




                          8
  Sugarcane – a Source of Energy


     1 tonne sugarcane              =        1.2 barrels of oil


                  Sugar – 153 kg             608 x 103 kCal (ethanol source)

Bagasse (50% moisture) – 276 kg              598 x 103 kCal (fuel for cogeneration)

   Straw (15% moisture) – 165 kg             512 x 103 kCal (fuel for cogeneration)

                                          1,718 x 103 kCal

                         1 barrel of oil = 1,386 x 103 kCal

     Global cane production = 1.7 billion barrels / year
  Saudi Arabia oil production = 3.1 billion barrels / year
                                         9
 How Does it Work?
          Mill heat / steam demand is great
          Sizing cogen plant to meet this demand gives surplus electricity
          If surplus can be sold, plant can be sized optimally to maximise
           efficiency and increase profitability




Cogen SP
                                          10
Upgraded Cogeneration Facilities Produce Much More
Energy

                               Low pressure /   High pressure /
                              low temperature        high
                                   boilers       temperature
                                                    boilers
       Energy
       generated (kWh
                                  20-30            90-160
       / tonne cane)

       Energy
       generated (kWh               60             370-510
       / tonne
       bagasse)
       Heat rate /
       efficiency (kCal           21,000        6,000 – 8,000
       / kWh)
      Winrock International


                                     11
Bagasse Cogeneration - the Benefits are Profound

 Economic
    Improved commercial performance
     of sugar industry
    High efficiency of energy conversion –
     cogeneration
    Cogeneration is local: reduced
     network costs and losses
    Improved supply to local businesses
     and communities
 Social
    Increased rural employment
    Increased access to electricity supply
 Environmental
    Reduced GHG emissions (especially in
     coal burning countries)
    Reduced particulate emissions


                                   12
The Benefits – Quantified

   Bagasse cogen in India    710 MWe (contracted)   5,000 MWe (potential)
   Network losses                    23%                    23%
   Avoided central plant          $922 million          $6,494 million
   Avoided T&D network            $622 million          $4,383 million
   Total avoided capital         $1,544 million         $4,383 million
   Cost of delivered            10.1 USc / kWh         10.1 USc / kWh
   central power
   Proposed feed-in tariff       7.0 USc / kWh          7.0 USc / kWh
   Saving                        3.1 USc / kWh          3.1 USc / kWh
   Central power cost            $427 m / year         $3,008m / year
   Payment to mills              $296m / year          $2,085m / year
   Annual saving to India        $131m / year           $923m / year
   Saving (%)                        31%                    31%
   Total avoided CO2             5.5 Mt / year         38.7 Mt / year
   WADE


                                     13
India


 500 sugar mills; 1250-10,000 TCD

 2/3 of bagasse currently “wasted”

 Progress in late 90s reversed in 2000

 MERC feed-in tariff $0.067 / kWh

 Currently 710 MW; Potential for at least 5GW

 Country with highest CDM Potential


                            14
Brazil


 Initial development prompted by 1970s oil crises

 Most in São Paulo State (40 mills)

 Potential for 12GW installed, of which 6GW in SP.

 PROINFA feed-in tariffs (c. $32-58 / MWh)

 11 CDM Projects




                             15
Global Market Potential

              Sugarcane                                      Potential as % of
                                Potential for Electricity
              Production                                    National Electricity
                                Production (GWh / yr)
            (tonnes / year)                                      Demand
Brazil            386,232,000                     38,623                      11.5
India             290,000,000                     29,000                      5.83
China              93,900,000                      9,390                      0.72
Thailand           74,071,952                      7,407                      8.15
Pakistan           52,055,800                      5,206                      8.36
Mexico             45,126,500                      4,513                      2.42
Colombia           36,600,000                      3,660                      9.19
Australia          36,012,000                      3,601                      1.95
Cuba               34,700,000                      3,470                     25.93
USA                31,178,130                      3,118                      0.09
TOTAL           1,350,293,120                   135,029                       0.97


                                     16
WADE Recommendations




 Electricity market regulatory issues

 Financial and tax incentives

 Promotion of CDM opportunities

 Further research into gasification




                            17

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