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									HARE -- Highway Access Restriction Estimator                                                          p.1
(Glen Weisbrod, 1996)


PAGE 1: INPUT INFORMATION (steps 1-5)

STEP 1: PROJECT DEFINITION (affects step 6 impacts)
Project Title (used for all subsequent tables)                       ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

Distance Affected (miles)                                                        4.2                  miles
No.Midblock Turn Restriction Locations                                           12                   #
No. Intersection Turn Restriction Locations                                        8                  #
Average Distance Between Allowable Turns                                       2000                   feet

Other Project Components (check all that apply)
                           road widening                                               curb cut restrictions
                   X       signalization                                    X          lane channelization
                           frontage roads                                              other




STEP 2: TRANSPORTATION PROJECT PURPOSE (affects step 4)
check all that apply:
                      X safety                                                         increase speeds
                        other upgrade                                                  increase volume
                                                                                       increase capacity




STEP 3: PROJECT LOCATION            (defines step 6 - 8 data collection)
Primary Area -- Directly Affected     (A)        WILDTRAFFIC COUNTY
Agency Interest Area                 (B)         STATE OF DISARRAY




STEP 4: PURPOSE OF THIS ANALYSIS (affects need for steps 9, 10, 14)
check all that apply:
                  risk of econ hardship      X
                  actual long-term sales     X



STEP 5: BASE CASE               (affects step 6b data)
check one:     current situation                   X
               alternative action plan
                                   (specify)

Year of Pre-Project Data                                 1985
Year of Post-Project Base Case                           1995

HARE -- Highway Access Restriction Estimator                                                          p.2
(Glen Weisbrod, 1996)

PAGE 2: DATA COLLECTION                                              Pre-              Post-
                                                                     Project           Project        Change
Year of Data                                                              1985            1995

STEP 6a: BASIC ECONOMIC DATA                 (depends on steps 1, 3, 5)

Density of Project Area (H=High, M=Med, L=Low)                              M               M
Number of Businesses in the Project Area)
                 Grocery -- Convenience                                           3
                 Grocery -- Supermarket                                           1
                 Non-Durables Retail                                              6
                 Durables Retail                                                  4
                 Gas Station                                                      5
                 Restaurant/Bar                                                   6
                 Hotel                                                            1
                 Services                                                         7
                 Specialty                                                        1

Ten Year Growth in Project Area Population                                5000        6200                24%
Ten Year Growth in Project Area Employment                               10000       12250                23%
Ten Year Growth in Project Area Bldg Devel (sq.ft.)                     400000      510400                28%
                                                                     -->composite average-->              25%

STEP 6b: BASIC TRAFFIC DATA                  (depends on steps 1, 3, 5)

Average Speed in Project Corridor (mph)                                   32              38                6
Level of Service in the Project Corridor                                   C               B
Volume of Traffic in the Project Corridor (ADT)                         20,000          22,000           2000

Mean Change in Travel Time Due to Restriction                             min                               3.00
 Note: This can be calculated based on avg. speed and change in travel travel distance.



STEP 7: ADDITIONAL ECONOMIC DATA - - survey or defaults                                                              STEP 7 DEFAULT RATIOS
check one:                              survey data                                         X         default data
                                                                                                      copied in                               SIC             Emp/           Sales/
                                                    (step 6)         (Survey or via Defaults)                                                 Group           Store          Store
                                                   Stores            Em ps           Sales($000s)                                                                            ($ooo's)
                  Grocery -- Convenience                         3              18         1779                      Grocery -- Convenience   54                    5.9          $593
                  Grocery -- Supermarket                         1              32         4282                      Grocery -- Supermarket   54                   31.9        $4,282
                  Non-Durables Retail                            6              47         3900                      Non-Durables Retail      52-53,56,59           7.8          $650
                  Durables Retail                                4              26         3384                      Durables Retail          57                    6.4          $846
                  Gas Station                                    5              32         6395                      Gas Station              55                    6.4        $1,279
                  Restaurant/Bar                                 6              99         2928                      Restaurant/Bar           58                   16.5          $488
                  Hotel                                          1              29         1408                      Hotel                    70                   28.9        $1,408
                  Services                                       7              43         2149                      Services                 72-76                 6.2          $307
                  Specialty                                      1               5          509                      Specialty                                      4.9          $509
                  TOTAL                                         34              330       26,734

HARE -- Highway Access Restriction Estimator                                                          p.3
(Glen Weisbrod, 1996)

PAGE 3: DATA COLLECTION (CONTINUED)

STEP 8: SHOPPER PROFILE - - survey or defaults                                                                       STEP 8 DEFAULT RATIOS
check one:                                survey data                                       X         default data
                                                                                                      copied in
                                                   (step 6)            (survey or defaults)                                                   Trips/          1000 sf/       Percent
A. Survey Data Values                              # Stores          # Trips           % Convenience                                          1000 sf         Store          Conv enience
                Grocery -- Convenience                           3           5322           95%                      Grocery -- Convenience         887                 2          95%
                Grocery -- Supermarket                           1           2898           40%                      Grocery -- Supermarket         126               23           40%
                Non-Durables Retail                              6           9960           65%                      Non-Durables Retail            166               10           65%
                Durables Retail                                  4           2784           30%                      Durables Retail                 29               24           30%
                Gas Station                                      5          3739.5          95%                      Gas Station                  2493                0.3          95%
                Restaurant/Bar                                   6          12780           50%                      Restaurant/Bar                 426                 5          50%
                Hotel                                            1            126           70%                      Hotel                            6               21           70%
                Services                                         7          10920           30%                      Services                       312                 5          30%
                Specialty                                        1           3120           20%                      Specialty                      312               10           20%




STEP 9: SHOPPING ALTERNATIVES DATA COLLECTION (used for step 10)
(optional if step4=B)(skip if step4=A)
                               Project  Alternative Alternative  Alternative Alternative
                               Corridor Site #1     Site #2      Site #3     Site #4

A. Current Attraction Rating: (Total Size in 1000 Sq.Ft)

Grocery -- Convenience                         6                12                0              8
Grocery -- Supermarket                       23                  0                0             40
Non-Durables                                 60                 40               40              0
Durables Retail                              96                 50                0             80
Gas Station                                  1.5                 4                4              2
Restaurant/Bar                               30                 20                0             30
Hotel                                        21                  0               30             30
Services                                     35                 20                0             35
Specialty                                    10                  0                0             15

B. Current Mean Access (Travel Time Min) for Project Corridor Travellers

Grocery -- Convenience                         7                 7                8             10
Grocery -- Supermarket                         7                10               15             28
Non-Durables                                   7                10               15             28
Durables Retail                                7                10               15             28
Gas Station                                    7                 7                8             10
Restaurant/Bar                                 7                10               15             28
Hotel                                          7                10               15             28
Services                                       7                10               15             28
Specialty                                      7                10               15             28




HARE -- Highway Access Restriction Estimator                                                          p.4
(Glen Weisbrod, 1996)

PAGE 4 --- STEP 10 GRAVITY MODEL WORKSHEET
(only if Step4=B)    (uses data from Step 9)

                                                    COMPETING SITES
                              Project              Alternative Alternative             Alternative Alternative
                              Corridor             Site #1     Site #2                 Site #3     Site #4

A. Calc. Current Gravity Function (Attraction/Cost^2) -- data from Steps 9A,9B
Grocery -- Convenience                  0.12          0.24           0.00                   0.08              0.00
Grocery -- Supermarket                  0.47          0.00           0.00                   0.05              0.00
Non-Durables                            1.22          0.40           0.18                   0.00              0.00
Durables Retail                         1.96          0.50           0.00                   0.10              0.00
Gas Station                             0.03          0.08           0.06                   0.02              0.00
Restaurant/Bar                          0.61          0.20           0.00                   0.04              0.00
Hotel                                   0.43          0.00           0.13                   0.04              0.00
Services                                0.71          0.20           0.00                   0.04              0.00
Specialty                               0.20          0.00           0.00                   0.02              0.00

Total                                       5.77            1.63                0.37        0.39              0.00

B. Calc. Current Market Shares (portion of gravity function total)
Grocery -- Convenience                0.27           0.55                      0.00         0.18            0.00
Grocery -- Supermarket                0.90           0.00                      0.00         0.10            0.00
Non-Durables                          0.68           0.22                      0.10         0.00            0.00
Durables Retail                       0.76           0.20                      0.00         0.04            0.00
Gas Station                           0.16           0.42                      0.32         0.10            0.00
Restaurant/Bar                        0.72           0.24                      0.00         0.04            0.00
Hotel                                 0.71           0.00                      0.22         0.06            0.00
Services                              0.74           0.21                      0.00         0.05            0.00
Specialty                             0.91           0.00                      0.00         0.09            0.00

Total                                       0.71           0.20                0.05         0.05            0.00

C. Project Changes            (uses step 6b, 9)
                              New Access                             New               New            Change in
                              Time                                   Gravity           Market         Market
                              (=Old + Penalty)                       Function          Share          Sales
Grocery -- Convenience                 10.00                                 0.06          0.16           -43%
Grocery -- Supermarket                 10.00                                 0.23          0.82             -9%
Non-Durables                           10.00                                 0.60          0.51           -25%
Durables Retail                        10.00                                 0.96          0.61           -20%
Gas Station                            10.00                                 0.01          0.08           -47%
Restaurant/Bar                         10.00                                 0.30          0.56           -23%
Hotel                                  10.00                                 0.21          0.55           -23%
Services                               10.00                                 0.35          0.59           -21%
Services                               10.00                                 0.10          0.84             -8%

Total                                    10.00                                 2.82         0.52            -24%



HARE -- Highway Access Restriction Estimator                                                          p.5
(Glen Weisbrod, 1996)

PAGE 5 -- DATA CALCULATION

STEP 11 BUSINESS CHANGE DUE TO TRAFFIC VOLUME CHANGE

                              Current              Future            % Change

Corridor Traffic (ADT)                   20000            22000                 10%


                              from step 8          Est Traffic Effect
                              % Affected by        on Pass-by
                              Pass-by Traffic      Sales
Grocery -- Convenience                      95%             10%
Grocery -- Supermarket                      40%              4%
Non-Durables                                65%              7%
Durables Retail                             30%              3%
Gas Station                                 95%             10%
Restaurant/Bar                              50%              5%
Hotel                                       70%              7%
Services                                    30%              3%
Specialty                                   20%              2%




STEP 12 BUSINESS VULNERABILITY - - survey or defaults
Effect of Access Time Shift w/adj for Traffic Volume Change

source: (enter <1> for survey/model data or <2> for default data)----->                     1                        DEFAULTS FOR STEP 12 BUSINESS VULNERABILITY
                                                                                                                     (depends on step 6A)
                              <survey/model>       <Default Data>      <Findings>
                                    Step 10                          Effect of         Effect of    Result Adj
                              Poten. Shift         Regression        Reduced           Increased for Traffic         % of Sales Impact (at Risk)
                              to Com pet.          Results           Access            Traffic Vol Vol Change                                Hi Dens          Med Dens Low Dens
Grocery -- Convenience                      -43%          -72%                 -43%         10%             -38%     Grocery -- Convenience      -89%            -72%     -63%
Grocery -- Supermarket                       -9%           -5%                  -9%          4%              -6%     Grocery -- Supermarket       -6%              -5%      -4%
Non-Durables                                -25%          -15%                 -25%          7%             -20%     Non-Durables                -18%            -15%     -13%
Durables Retail                             -20%           -6%                 -20%          3%             -17%     Durables Retail              -7%              -6%      -5%
Gas Station                                 -47%          -72%                 -47%         10%             -42%     Gas Station                 -89%            -72%     -63%
Restaurant/Bar                              -23%          -10%                 -23%          5%             -19%     Restaurant/Bar              -12%            -10%       -9%
Hotel                                       -23%          -31%                 -23%          7%             -18%     Hotel                       -38%            -31%     -27%
Services                                    -21%           -5%                 -21%          3%             -19%     Services                     -6%              -5%      -4%
Specialty                                    -8%           -5%                  -8%          2%              -6%     Specialty                    -6%              -5%      -4%

                                                                                                                     (Multipliers)            High            Medium         Low
                                                                                                                     Metro Econ Growth                  0.4              1         1.4




ECONOMIC IMPACT OF LEFT TURN RESTRICTIONS                                                             p.6
NCHRP 25-4 ver 1.0                                                   ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE

PAGE 6    -- SHORT-TERM RESULTS

STEP 13: POTENTIAL SHORT-TERM CHANGE FOR EXISTING BUSINESS                                                           DEFAULTS FOR STEP 13 POTENTIAL SHORT-TERM LOSS
(builds on steps 6, 7 for pre-data and steps 8,12 for post-data)




13a. PROJECT AREA BUSINESS SALES ($1000S)                                                                                                     % of Sales at Risk by Site Density
                                      Pre                            Post              Change         Percent                                 Hi Dens     Med Dens Low Dens
              Grocery -- Convenience                      1,779              1,109          -670          -38%       Grocery -- Convenience        33%         30%         26%
              Grocery -- Supermarket                      4,282              4,041          -241           -6%       Grocery -- Supermarket         0%           0%         0%
              Non-Durables Retail                         3,900              3,114          -786          -20%       Non-Durables                  89%         81%         70%
              Durables Retail                             3,384              2,800          -584          -17%       Durables Retail               43%         39%         34%
              Gas Station                                 6,395              3,730        -2,665          -42%       Gas Station                   48%         44%         38%
              Restaurant/Bar                              2,928              2,380          -548          -19%       Restaurant/Bar                 0%           0%         0%
              Hotel                                       1,408              1,161          -247          -18%       Hotel                         19%         17%         15%
              Services                                    2,149              1,749          -400          -19%       Services                      32%         29%         25%
              Specialty                                     509                477           -32           -6%       Specialty                      0%           0%         0%

                  TOTAL                                  26,734             20,562        -6,172            -23%




13b. PROJECT AREA EMPLOYMENT
                                                   Pre               Post              Change         Percent
                  Grocery -- Convenience                        18               11              -7       -38%
                  Grocery -- Supermarket                        32               30              -2        -6%
                  Non-Durables Retail                           47               37              -9       -20%
                  Durables Retail                               26               21              -4       -17%
                  Gas Station                                   32               19             -13       -42%
                  Restaurant/Bar                                99               80             -19       -19%
                  Hotel                                         29               24              -5       -18%
                  Services                                      43               35              -8       -19%
                  Specialty                                      5                5               0        -6%

                  TOTAL                                     330                 263             -68         -20%




HARE -- Highway Access Restriction Estimator                                                          p.7
(Glen Weisbrod, 1996)




STEP 14: FORECAST MEDIUM/LONG-TERM CHANGE IN BUSINESS
(depends on step 6, 7 pre-data and step 13 short-term post-data)




14a. PROJECT AREA BUSINESS SALES ($1000S)
                                      Pre                            Post              Change         Percent
              Grocery -- Convenience                      1,779              1,383          -396          -22%
              Grocery -- Supermarket                      4,282              5,039           757           18%
              Non-Durables Retail                         3,900              3,884           -16            0%
              Durables Retail                             3,384              3,492           108            3%
              Gas Station                                 6,395              4,652        -1,743          -27%
              Restaurant/Bar                              2,928              2,968            40            1%
              Hotel                                       1,408              1,448            40            3%
              Services                                    2,149              2,181            32            1%
              Specialty                                     509                594            85           17%

                  TOTAL                                  26,734             25,641        -1,093              -4%




14b. PROJECT AREA EMPLOYMENT
                                                   Pre               Post              Change         Percent
                  Grocery -- Convenience                        18               15              -2       -13%
                  Grocery -- Supermarket                        32               38               6        19%
                  Non-Durables Retail                           47               49               2         5%
                  Durables Retail                               26               28               2         7%
                  Gas Station                                   32               27              -5       -17%
                  Restaurant/Bar                                99              105               6         6%
                  Hotel                                         29               31               2         7%
                  Services                                      43               46               3         6%
                  Specialty                                      5                6               1        18%

                  TOTAL                                     330                 344             14              4%

								
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