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5 January 2012
The full report is available from www.daff.gov.au/abares
Summary of key issues
Hot, dry and windy conditions during the past week have contributed to high fire risk
across parts of southern Australia, with a number of fires encroaching on
properties.
Favourable seasonal conditions and good irrigation water availability have led to a
forecast by Cotton Australia of a record crop of 4.8 million bales of cotton for 2011–
12.
2011 was Australia’s third-wettest year on record, while 2010–11 was Australia’s
second-wettest two-year period on record (Australian Annual Climate Statement
2011, Bureau of Meteorology, 4 January 2012).
2011 was Australia’s first cooler than average year since 2001, due to widespread
cloud and wet weather. However, 2002 to 2011 was Australia’s equal-warmest 10-
year period on record (Australian Annual Climate Statement 2011, Bureau of
Meteorology, 4 January 2012).
The global mean temperature in 2011 was the highest for any year that began with a
La Niña event, despite Australia experiencing cooler than average temperatures
(Australian Annual Climate Statement 2011, Bureau of Meteorology, 4 January
2012).
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin decreased this week by 350
gigalitres (GL) to approximately 86 per cent of total capacity.
World wheat and coarse grain indicator prices were higher in the first week of January
compared with the previous week.
Fruit and vegetable wholesale prices were generally lower in the week ending 31
December 2011, apart from a modest price increase with cherries.
The world sugar indicator price averaged US23.9 cents a pound in the week ending 4
January 2012, US0.5 cents a pound higher than the previous week.
The world cotton indicator price averaged US97.2 cents a pound in the week ending 4
January 2012, 4.7 per cent higher than the previous week.
For more information or to subscribe, email ClimateUpdate@daff.gov.au
1. Climate
1.1. Notable events
For the week ending 4 January, rainfall was mostly recorded in Australia’s tropical north, with some
rainfall occurring in southern Western Australia. The highest measured total for the week was 186
millimetres at Musgrave in Far North Queensland.
Hot, dry and windy conditions during the past week have contributed to high fire risk across parts of South
Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and New South Wales, with a number of fires encroaching on properties. The
extent of any damage to crops, pastures or livestock is unknown.
Favourable seasonal conditions and good irrigation water availability have led to a forecast by Cotton
Australia of around 4.8 million bales of cotton for the 2011–12 season, representing a record crop.
La Niña conditions remain in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The majority of climate models suggest this La
Niña event may be close to its peak, with a gradual decline expected over the remainder of summer and
early autumn (ENSO ‘Wrap-Up’, Bureau of Meteorology, 4 January 2011).
2011 was Australia’s third-wettest year on record, while 2010–11 was Australia’s second-wettest two-year
period on record (Australian Annual Climate Statement 2011, Bureau of Meteorology, 4 January 2012).
2011 was Australia’s first cooler than average year since 2001, due to the strong La Niña event causing
widespread cloud and persistent wet weather. However, the 10 years from 2002 to 2011 were Australia’s
equal-warmest 10-year period on record (Australian Annual Climate Statement 2011, Bureau of
Meteorology, 4 January 2012).
The global mean temperature in 2011 was the highest for any year that began with a La Niña event.
Australia was one of the few places on the globe that experienced cooler than average temperatures in
2011 (Australian Annual Climate Statement 2011, Bureau of Meteorology, 4 January 2012).
1.2. Rainfall this week
For the week ending 4 January 2012, rainfall was received in all states and territories. For further information,
go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.
Rainfall for the week ending 4 January 2012
1.3. Temperature anomalies this week
Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of
Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum from the
long-term average. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911
onwards. For further information on temperature anomalies, go to www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/.
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 3 January 2012
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 3 January 2012
1.4. December 2011 rainfall
Rainfall percentiles for December 2011
1.5. October to December 2011 rainfall
Rainfall percentiles for October to December 2011
1.6. January to December 2011 rainfall
Rainfall percentiles for January to December 2011
1.7. Rainfall outlook
The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather
forecasters, it is important to also check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall for the period 05 to 12 January 2012
2. Water
2.1. Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased this week by 350 gigalitres (GL) to
approximately 86 per cent of total capacity. This is 5 percentage points or 1065 GL more than this time last
year.
Water storage levels normally fall at this time of year, with the peak inflow period finished and irrigation
drawdown occurring.
2.2. Water storages
Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to
5 January 2012 is shown above. The top horizontal (red) line indicates the storage level at the similar time
last year. The bottom horizontal (orange) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
3. Commodities
3.1. Production and commodities
The world wheat indicator price (US hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$303 tonne in
the week ending 3 January 2012, compared with US$291 a tonne in the previous week.
The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$276 a
tonne for the week ending 4 January 2012, compared with US$267 a tonne in the previous week.
The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged AU$485 a tonne in the week ending 2
January 2012, compared with AU$476 a tonne in the week ending 19 December 2011.
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) increased 2.2
per cent to average US23.9 cents a pound in the week ending 4 January 2012.
The world cotton indicator price (Cotlook ‘A’ index) increased by 4.7 per cent to average US97.2 cents a
pound in the week ending 4 January 2012. Lending support to prices was news from the International
Cotton Advisory Committee that China could rebuild its national cotton reserve stocks by as much as 3
million tonnes in 2011-12 after reserve stocks had been reduced in 2010-11.
Cherry prices were modestly higher in the week ending 31 December 2011, but most other fruit prices
were slightly lower.
Most vegetable prices at wholesale were lower in the week ending 31 December 2011 compared with the
previous week. Vegetable wholesale prices were generally lower in late 2011 than at the same time a year
earlier (figure A).
Due to the closure of livestock and livestock product markets over the Christmas/New Year period,
updated saleyard prices and production information are not available. Updated time series data will be
reported as it becomes available.
Figure A: Year on year changes in selected vegetable prices, Melbourne wholesale
market, week ended 31 December 2011
3.2. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices
Weekly wholesale prices for selected fruit, Melbourne market
Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables, Melbourne market
3.3. Selected world indicator prices*
* No new data is available for Eastern Market Indicator wool price for the week ending 4 January 2012
3.4. Crop indicator prices*
* No new data is available for canola, feed barley, grain sorghum and feed wheat for the week ending 4 January 2012
3.5. Livestock indicator prices*
* No new data is available for young cattle, mutton, lamb and baconer pig indicator prices for the week ending 4 January 2012
4. Data attribution
Climate
Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp
Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/
Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp
Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead
Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml
ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
Soil moisture (BoM, CSIRO and the former Bureau of Rural Sciences): www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/
Water
New South Wales
New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/
New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water:
www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx
Available water determinations register:
www.wix.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination
Snowy Hydro: www.snowyhydro.com.au/lakeLevels.asp?pageID=47&parentID=61&grandParentID=4
Queensland
Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au
seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au
South Australia
SA Water: www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/TheRiverMurray/River+Murray+Levels.htm
South Australian Department of Water: www.waterforgood.sa.gov.au/
Victoria
Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au
Water trading
Waterexchange: www.waterexchange.com.au
Commodities
Fruit and vegetables
Datafresh: www.datafresh.com.au
Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum
The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx
Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs
Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets
Canola
Weekly Times: hardcopy
